U.N. seeks climate progress; deal may be years off

* U.S.-China standoff at heart of talks
* Talks seek successor to 1992 treaty; may be years off
* World may have under-estimated Obama's problems
Alister Doyle, Reuters AlertNet 24 Nov 10;

OSLO, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The world will seek to break a U.S.-China standoff and agree modest steps to rein in global warming at U.N. talks in Mexico next week amid worries that the first climate treaty since 1992 may still be years away.

Most nations have few hopes for the meeting of environment ministers from Nov. 29 to Dec. 10 in the Caribbean resort of Cancun after U.S. President Barack Obama and other world leaders failed to agree a treaty at last year's U.N. Copenhagen summit.

Sights are lower for Cancun, which will test the ability of the United Nations to reconcile the interests of China and the United States, the top greenhouse gas emitters, and those of 192 other nations in a 21st century world order. All have a veto.

"We have to take a few steps forward or there are people who are going to lose faith in the U.N. system," Rajendra Pachauri, head of the U.N. panel of climate scientists.

"I'm a little depressed about Cancun," said Al Gore, the climate campaigner and former U.S. Vice President. "The problem is not going away, it's getting steadily worse."

In new evidence of warming, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday that concentrations of the main greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached their highest level since pre-industrial times. [ID:nLDE6AN11Z]

And 2010 is on track to match 1998 or 2005 as the warmest year since records began in the 19th century, leading experts say.

Pachauri's panel says warming will bring more floods, heatwaves, mudslides and rising sea levels. Inaction also raises risks of abrupt changes such as a melt of polar ice or permafrost.

The talks will try to agree "building blocks" of a deal such as a green fund to channel aid to poor nations, a mechanism to share new clean energy technologies and a deal to protect tropical forests that soak up greenhouse gases as they grow.

Hopes for a quick binding deal have faded, partly because of a standoff between China and the United States throughout 2010 about new actions and scant prospects that the U.S. Senate would be able to ratify a treaty in coming years.

"There is a total deadlock for the United States, which means China will not be forthcoming," said Johan Rockstrom, head of the Stockholm Environment Institute.

EARTH SUMMIT

The world agreed the existing U.N. Climate Convention in 1992. In any new deal, China says that Obama must show more leadership than his stalled U.S. plan to curb emissions by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

Washington says China must toughen a "voluntary" plan to curb the rise of its carbon emissions by between 40 and 45 percent below projected levels by 2020 from 2005. The rivalry overshadows other tensions between rich and poor nations.

Alden Meyer, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the world had under-estimated hurdles in the United States, where he said Obama's Democrats risked losing control of the 100-seat Senate in 2012 elections even if Obama is re-elected.

"It's likely to get harder after 2012," he said. Double the number of Democrats face elections in 2012 than Republicans, when a third of the Senate is up for election. The Senate needs 67 votes to ratify an international treaty.

Other countries "have got to figure out, once again, do you try to soldier ahead without the U.S.?" he said.

All industrialised nations except the United States back the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, which seeks to cut emissions by 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12. They need to decide by the end of 2012 how to extend Kyoto, which underpins carbon prices.

Many other analysts fear the talks may drag on like the 2001 Doha round of trade talks -- which once staged a failed meeting in Cancun. One early chance for a deal may be an Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 2012, Rockstrom said.

Despite pessimism, Andrew Steer, the World Bank's special envoy for climate change, said there had been a "sea change" in developing nations' perceptions of the importance of slowing global warrming by shifting from fossil fuels.

In 1990, just 10 percent of developing nations wanted climate change as a main pillar of development, he said. In the past two years, that figure had risen to 80 percent.

And the WWF environmental group published a report on Wednesday praising emerging economies such as China, India, South Africa and Brazil for work to slow climate change. (With extra reporting by Laura MacInnis in Geneva, Gerard Wynn in London; editing Philippa Fletcher)

Investors hope UN talks keep climate deal on track
* Carbon markets most impacted by Cancun talks
* Wider green technologies would benefit from deal in 2011
Gerard Wynn Reuters AlertNet 24 Nov 10;

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Investors in "green" assets hope that upcoming U.N. climate talks in Mexico will salvage a deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions in 2011, and in the meantime widen and simplify existing carbon markets.

The U.N. process could boost the private sector if it builds trust in global climate action and so increases overall ambitions, such as to deploy renewable energy technologies.

The negotiations are supposed to agree in 2011 on a global successor to the Kyoto Protocol, whose present round expires in 2012.

A Copenhagen summit last year failed to do that, and the focus now is on restoring momentum, especially for agreement next year in South Africa on new, more ambitious carbon caps.

One particular private sector focus at the Nov. 29-Dec. 10 talks in Cancun will be on the carbon markets.

Kyoto capped emissions by industrialised countries through 2012, driving them to invest in clean energy projects in developing countries to earn carbon tradable offsets, which would help them meet their limits.

"A commitment from Kyoto countries to extend the protocol for another period would prompt some positive (market) reactions," said Matteo Mazzoni, an analyst at Italy's Nomisma Energia.

While Cancun will not achieve a broad climate deal, rich countries may agree to insert their existing, national emissions targets to 2020 under an extended Kyoto Protocol in a wider deal to be finalised next year.

But that is an unlikely step, because it would hinge on similar agreement by China and the United States.

The United States did not ratify the original protocol, which does not bind the emissions of developing countries.

The carbon market also wants progress on simpler rules governing trade in carbon offsets under the so-called clean development mechanism (CDM), worth about $20 billion last year.

Businesses as well as governments largely accept that the U.N. process is the best way to drive action.

"What's become clear this year is that there's no credible alternative. What the international process does is help build confidence," said Nick Robins at HSBC.

RAINFORESTS

Cancun may deliver agreement on a deal to widen the CDM to include rainforests, which would allow investors to earn offsets from protecting forests, which store carbon in the trunks of trees and in the soil.

But some environmental groups are sceptical of progress on such a deal to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD), saying details are few and so any decision in Cancun would carry little weight.

"There's no funding attached and details are up in the air," said Simon Counsell, director of the Rainforest Foundation UK.

Counsell said that REDD might become a bargaining chip in a wider deal, given that it could direct rich country funds to tropical nations, many of which are demanding that the United States take a more ambitious stance in the overall talks.

"There are huge issues of governance; it'll probably take some years," he added, referring to continuing corruption and illegal logging in some tropical countries.

Beyond carbon markets, the private sector is looking to possible opportunities in bilateral deals among countries on the fringes of the U.N. process, but these lack details so far.

The Cancun talks should clarify where climate aid would come from, under targets agreed in last year's Copenhagen Accord, said the ratings agency Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Wednesday, suggesting both carbon markets and bilateral deals.

"Although this role for private finance has been clearly identified, there's still a lot of work to create the products," British climate change minister Greg Barker told reporters on Wednesday, referring to the role of capital markets.

(Additional reporting by Nina Chestney, editing by Jane Baird)

Modest hopes for climate summit, as gas levels rise
Richard Black BBC News 24 Nov 10;

"Keeping the show on the road" may be all governments can hope for at next week's UN climate talks, the UK admits.

Energy and Climate Secretary Chris Huhne said there was no chance of getting a legally binding deal at the summit in Cancun, Mexico.

The aim, he said, should be to get "within shouting distance".

Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released data showing that greenhouse gas levels continued their rise through 2009.

It follows publication of a scientific paper at the weekend suggesting that without new constraints, global carbon emissions will re-commence rising at 2-3% per year, following a brief lull caused by the recession.

And on Tuesday, the UN Environment Programme (Unep) said pledges that countries had made on constraining emissions were not enough to keep the global temperature rise within limits that most countries say they want - either 2C or 1.5C since pre-industrial times.

Like many other governments, the UK believes there is an urgent need to turn these trends around through establishing a new legally-binding regime on emissions.

"We want to see progress [in Cancun] - we don't want to see a shambles that involves lots of name-calling," said Mr Huhne.

"If we don't get peaking of [global] emissions by 2020, the prospects for the people on the planet are looking pretty bleak, so we really do have to make progress on this."

Realistically, the government believes, progress could be made on issues such as reducing deforestation, financial pledges and bringing the unilateral carbon-cutting pledges that countries unveiled at Copenhagen into the UN framework so they can be properly analysed.

Western countries are equally keen to pursue the place that private finance and the business sector can play in leading the transition to a low-carbon global society.

But the Secretary of State was downbeat about how much progress was possible given the legacy of last year's Copenhagen summit, the domestic concerns of a few key countries including the US and China, and the differing demands of various negotiating blocs.

"We're clearly not expecting a final agreement at Cancun; but our objective is to ensure we re-invigorate the whole UN climate convention (UNFCCC) process and manage to get a new sense of momentum, with the ambition of reaching full agreement [at the summit] in South Africa next year," he said.

Pacific rift

However, even that may not be possible, officials acknowledged, unless important countries can find a way to reconcile their domestic political problems with the demands of other nations.

The US Senate is extremely unlikely to ratify any UN climate deal, meaning that prospects of the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter signing up to anything that other countries would consider legally binding is remote.

US officials - and their Canadian counterparts - are now talking openly about the possibility of a "Plan B" if Cancun does not move in the direction they want.

Among developing nations, China in particular has railed against demands from the West - and from Japan - that it must agree measures enabling its carbon-constraining performance to be monitored and verified.

The UK was encouraged by a recent Indian proposal to put international verification under the auspices of the UN climate convention.

But the US appears to be growing as an obstacle, with campaigners acknowledging privately that the balance of power in Congress is likely to become even less favourable to carbon-cutting legislation after the next round of elections in 2012.
Warming and wetting

The WMO data, meanwhile, confirms that atmospheric concentrations of the three gases principally responsible for the man-made component of the greenhouse effect - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide - all rose during 2009.

The agency highlighted the rise in methane emissions, which it says is probably due to higher than average emissions from wetlands around the Arctic and in the tropics, both related to weather conditions.

Heightened methane emission from wetlands and permafrost has regularly been touted as a potential amplifying factor in climate change, with warmer weather stimulating their release and so producing further warming.

"Greenhouse gas concentrations have reached record levels despite the economic slowdown," observed WMO secretary-general Michel Jarraud.

"Potential methane release from northern permafrost, and wetlands, under future climate change is of great concern, and is becoming a focus of intensive research and observations."

Climate aid pledges at $30 bln goal
Reuters AlertNet 24 Nov 10;

Nov 24 (Reuters) - Pledges by rich countries to provide developing nations with "fast-start" funds to fight climate change have reached a goal of $30 billion for 2010-12, but some of it is not "new and additional" as promised.

The head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, Christiana Figueres, says new cash is a "golden key" to unlocking progress on a deal to slow global warming at annual U.N. talks in Cancun, Mexico, from Nov. 29-Dec. 10. [ID:nLDE6AF0FB]

Taken at face value, planned spending amounts to $29.8 billion, according to a Reuters overview. But developing nations say rich nations, facing austerity cuts at home, are often dressing up old promises as new.

WORLDWIDE:

About 140 nations have agreed to the 2009 Copenhagen Accord for curbing global warming. On finance, developed nations agreed to give "new and additional resources ... approaching $30 billion for the period 2010-2012."

But there are no rules for deciding who contributes what, no common reporting and no definition of what qualifies as "new and additional". The Copenhagen Accord also sets a goal of raising aid to at least $100 billion a year from 2020.

Figueres has cautioned developing nations that rich nations' 2010 budgets were largely set before the Copenhagen summit, making it hard for all aid to be new and additional this year.

NATIONAL:

UNITED STATES - $3 billion. Washington contributed $1.3 billion for 2010 and President Barack Obama is seeking $1.7 billion for 2011. The United States is a leading donor in a $3.5 billion plan to protect forests from 2010-12 also funded by Australia, France, Japan, Norway and Britain.

JAPAN - $15 billion. Japan said in Copenhagen it would offer $15 billion in the three years to end-2012, including $11 billion in public money. The total amount includes about 1 trillion yen ($12.03 billion) left over from the "Cool Earth Partnership" initiative under the previous Liberal Democratic Party-led government running from 2008-2012.

CANADA - $393 million. Canada has committed C$400 million as as fast-start funds for the 2010-11 fiscal year, above those considered for climate change programmes before Copenhagen.

AUSTRALIA - $548 million. In June, promised 559 million Australian dollars to the 2010-12 funds.

EUROPEAN UNION - $9.64 billion. A draft EU report [ID:nLDE6AE1MR] says governments are on track to meet a goal of 7.2 billion euros ($9.64 billion) in 2010-12 and have fulfilled a pledge to provide 2.2 billion euros of the total in 2010.

NORWAY - $1 billion. The government says fast-start funds comprise support for slowing deforestation.

NEW ZEALAND - $69 million. The New Zealand delegation at U.N. talks in August said the government would spend up to NZ$30 million a year from 2010-12.

SWITZERLAND - $141 million. The government is seeking 140 million Swiss francs in fast-start funds.

(Sources: governments, U.N.-backed fast start website: http://www.faststartfinance.org/, World Resources Institute: http://pdf.wri.org/climate_finance_pledges_2010-10-02.pdf (Compiled by Alister Doyle in Oslo)

The Copenhagen Accord: climate guide or too weak?
Reuters AlertNet 24 Nov 10;

Nov 24 (Reuters) - U.N. climate talks in Cancun, Mexico, from Nov. 29 to Dec. 10 will discuss steps to combat climate change after a summit in Denmark in 2009 came up with only a non-binding Copenhagen Accord. [ID:nLDE6AM206]

The United States favours using the 3-page Accord as a guide for Mexico, which aims to work out measures to slow global warming that fall short of a binding treaty.

Some developing nations say it is a weak, flawed blueprint and should be scrapped.

SUPPORT - About 140 of 194 U.N. members including all top emitters led by China, the United States, Russia and India have signed up to the Accord since Copenhagen. Strong opponents include Bolivia, Sudan and Venezuela.

TEMPERATURES - The Accord says governments will work to combat climate change "recognising the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius" (3.6 Fahrenheit). Temperatures have already risen by 0.7C since before the Industrial Revolution.

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS - The text merely urges "deep cuts in global emissions" to achieve the 2C goal. The United Nations says existing plans for cuts in emissions are too weak and will mean a temperature rise of about 3C.

ADAPTATION - The Accord promises to help countries adapt to the damaging impacts of climate change such as droughts, storms or rising sea levels, "especially least developed countries, small island developing states and Africa." But it also says all nations face challenges of adapting to "response measures" -- OPEC nations, for instance, argue they should be compensated if this means a shift from oil to renewable energy.

2020 TARGETS - In an annex, rich nations have this year listed their national goals for cuts in greenhouse gases and developing nations set out actions to slow the rise of emissions by 2020.

VERIFICATION - Developed nations will submit emissions goals for U.N. review. Developing nations' actions will be under domestic review if funded by their own budgets but "subject to international measurement, reporting and verification" when funded by foreign aid. In Copenhagen, China resisted foreign review while the United States said it was vital.

DEFORESTATION - The text sees a "crucial role" for slowing deforestation -- trees store carbon dioxide as they grow.

MARKETS - Countries will "pursue various approaches, including opportunities to use markets".

AID - Developed nations promise new and additional funds "approaching $30 billion for 2010-12" to help developing countries. In the longer term, "developed countries commit to a goal of mobilising jointly $100 billion a year by 2020". A panel of experts concluded this month that the goal was "feasible but challenging" and hinged on wider pricing of carbon emissions.

GREEN FUND - Countries will set up a "Copenhagen Green Climate Fund" to help channel aid. It will also set up a "Technology Mechanism" to accelerate use of green technologies. Agreement on a new green fund is among goals for Cancun, but will not have the "Copenhagen" name attached.

REVIEW - The accord will be reviewed in 2015, including whether the temperature goal should be toughened to 1.5C. An alliance of about 100 least developed countries and small island states want temperatures to rise less than 1.5 degrees.

(For a link to U.N. material on the Copenhagen Accord, click on: http://unfccc.int/home/items/5262.php)

(Compiled by Alister Doyle in Oslo, Editing by Janet Lawrence)