2010 sets new temperature records

Richard Black BBC News 2 Dec 10;

Temperatures reached record levels in several regions during 2010, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says, confirming the year is likely to be among the warmest three on record.

Parts of Russia, Greenland, Canada, China, North Africa and South Asia all saw the mercury soar to record levels.

The three main temperature records show 2010 as the warmest, or joint warmest, year in the instrumental record.

The UK Met Office suggests 2011 will be cooler, as La Nina conditions dominate.

This brings colder than average water to the top of the eastern Pacific Ocean, which lowers temperatures globally.

The two leading US analyses of global temperature show that up until the end of October, 2010 was the warmest year in the instrumental record going back to 1850.

The global average temperature was 0.58C above the average for 1961-90 according to Nasa, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) put the figure at 0.54 above.

The UK record, kept by the Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, has 2010 in joint first place with the El Nino-dominated year of 1998.

The Met Office released its own analysis last week.

But with La Nina conditions continuing, 2010 could slip back into second or third place by the time data for November and December is included, it says.
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“Start Quote

Those who hoped that global warming would just go away will be disappointed by today's announcements”

End Quote Professor Mark Maslin UCL

If La Nina continues into next year, as expected, that could make 2011 cooler than 2010 - though still well above the 1961-90 average.

The UK itself, meanwhile, is on course to see the coldest year since 1996, due to the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - a weather phenomenon that affects the distribution of heat within the northern hemisphere.

CRU's Professor Phil Jones - one of the scientists at the centre of the "ClimateGate" issue earlier in the year - cautioned that annual temperatures were not a good indicator of the progression of global warming as driven by greenhouse gas emissions.

"Year-to-year variability is dominated by features such as the NAO and El Nino," he told BBC News.

"But if you want to look at the underlying trend, you need to look at the decadal timescale, and that's when you detect the anthropogenic influence.

"In terms of looking at recent years, 1998 was the most anomalous - the remaining top 10 warmest years in the series have all occurred since 2000."
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The WMO highlighted weather extremes in several parts of the world during 2010, which it says are consistent with the picture of man-made global warming.

In July, temperatures in Moscow soared 7.6C above normal, beating the previous record by 2C.

Some other parts of western Russia encountered summer temperatures 5C above normal.

Pakistan experienced the worst floods in its documented history, the WMO says, while parts of the Amazon saw a serious drought.

Canada as a whole experienced its warmest year in the instrumental record.

"Only limited land areas had below-normal temperatures in 2010," the WMO concludes.

Professor James Crabbe from the UK's University of Bedfordshire said high temperatures in the oceans had done severe damage to coral reefs.

"Coral bleaching has been observed in every ocean and major sea in which coral occurs, from the Persian Gulf to southeast Asia, the Central Pacific to the Caribbean - only the second time this has happened, the first being 1998," he said.

"This has serious implications for the many populations - about one billion people - who live near coral reefs and rely on them for their livelihoods and nutrition."

The WMO released the findings - as it always does - during the annual UN climate meeting, held this year in Cancun, Mexico.

Professor Mark Maslin, director of the Environment Institute at University College London, said negotiators should pay renewed attention to the data.

"Those who hoped that global warming would just go away will be disappointed by today's announcements," he said.

"It shows that the science underpinning the negotiations at Cancun is correct, and adds further weight to the need for a globally negotiated and accepted deal on carbon emissions."

2010 To Be Among Three Warmest Years: U.N.
Alister Doyle and Timothy Gardner PlanetArk 3 Dec 10;

This year is set to be among the three warmest since records began in 1850 and caps a record-warm decade that is a new indication of man-made climate change, the United Nations said on Thursday.

"The trend is of very significant warming," Michel Jarraud, head of the World Meteorological Organization, told a news conference on the sidelines of a meeting of almost 200 nations in the Caribbean resort of Cancun trying to curb global warming.

He said 2010 so far was slightly warmer than both 1998 and 2005, the previous top two, but could slip if December is a cool month.

The WMO said that land and sea surface temperatures so far in 2010 were 0.55 degree Celsius (1 F) above a 1961-1990 average of 14 degrees C (57.2 degrees F). The years 2001-10 were the warmest 10-year period, it said.

"There is a significant possibility that 2010 could be the warmest year," he said. A final ranking for 2010 is due to be published early in 2011.

Asked if the data were new evidence that human emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels were warming the climate, he said, "Short answer: yes."

"If nothing is done ... (temperatures) will go up and up," he said, saying the findings would guide negotiators meeting in Cancun from November 29 to December 10.

Temperatures have already risen by about 0.8 degree C since pre-industrial times.

CURRENT PROPOSALS 'ARE NOT ENOUGH'

The Cancun talks are trying to build on a nonbinding deal at the Copenhagen summit last year to limit overall temperature rises to 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Curbs promised by emitters led by China and the United States are too little to reach the goal.

"It's becoming ever more clear that the current proposals are not enough to stay below 2 degrees," said Peter Wittoeck, head of the Belgian delegation in Cancun that holds the European Union presidency.

Cancun will seek a modest package of measures, including a new "green fund" to help channel aid to developing nations, a new mechanism to share clean technologies and to protect carbon-absorbing tropical forests.

The WMO said warming had been especially strong in Africa, parts of Asia and parts of the Arctic. Pakistan, hit by devastating floods, recorded a record temperature of 53.5 degrees C (128.30 F), the warmest in Asia since 1942.

Environmentalists said the data should spur action in Cancun. "This is yet another warning from the planet that it is feeling the heat," said Wendel Trio, international climate policy director for Greenpeace.

Jarraud said that the decade-long trend was most relevant to negotiators in Cancun seeking to avert more floods, droughts, desertification and rising sea levels.

2010 to be among warmest years ever: UN experts
Richard Ingham Yahoo News 2 Dec 10;

CANCUN, Mexico (AFP) – The year 2010 will be one of the warmest ever, climaxing a record-breaking decade, the UN's World Meteorological Organization said at global climate talks Thursday.

"2010 is almost certain to be in the top three warmest years on record," WMO Secretary General Michel Jarraud told a press conference. "It is probably the warmest one up to October-November."

He added: "The decade from 2001 to 2010 has set a new record, it will be the warmest decade ever since we have records."

The snapshot was published on the fourth day of the 12-day talks in Cancun under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Jarraud said he hoped the provisional assessment -- a consensus of temperature data from four meteorological institutions -- would guide policymakers negotiating a post-2012 pact on global warming.

"This is the (scientific) foundation to say where we are now, these are the facts," he said. "Of course, if nothing is done, this curve will go on increasing and increasing, it will go up and up."

Only two other years, 1998 and 2005, have been warmer since records began, and only marginally so, said Jarraud. Reliable statistical records for world weather date from 1850.

The benchmark for warming is 14 degrees Celsius (57.2 degrees Fahrenheit), comprising the global combined surface temperatures of the air and sea from 1961-1990.

In 1998, temperatures were 0.53 C (0.95 F) above that level, and 2005 exceeded it by 0.52 C (0.93 F). For January-October 2010, there was a rise of 0.55 C (0.99 F), with a margin of error of plur or minus 0.11 C (0.17 F), although there are still two more months of monitoring left.

The final figures for 2010 will be issued next February.

In the decade from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46 C (0.82 F) above the 1960-1990 yardstick.

Jarraud said these measurements were a further indicator that global warming was on the march.

The figures do not by themselves pin the cause on man-made greenhouse gases, although this is confirmed separately by other research into concentrations of carbon emissions in the atmosphere, he said.

"It's an additional element to confirm that there is indeed warming... the man-made (causes) you can deduct from other curves, such as greenhouse-gases," said Jarraud.

The report swung a spotlight on a wide range of extreme weather events in 2010, including an unprecedented heatwave in Russia, in which around 11,000 people died.

This phenomenon was linked to extreme moonsoon rainfall in Pakistan that affected millions of people, it said.

Other places that experienced extremely high temperatures were most of Canada and Greenland, the northern half of Africa and South Asia and the western part of China, where Yunnan and Guizhou provinces both had their lowest rainfalls on record.

In some of these heat-hit regions, annual mean temperatures were 3 C (5.4 F) or more above the norm.

Parts of the Amazon basin were badly affected by drought in the later part of 2010, according to the WMO. The Rio Negro, a major tributary to the Amazon, plunged to its lowest level on record.

In many parts of the mid-latitude northern hemisphere, though, the winter was abnormally cold. Ireland and Scotland experienced their coldest winter since 1962-1963, and many other parts of northern and central Europe saw their coldest winter since the 1980s or 1970s.

Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are on course to have the least active year since 1979.

Only 65 tropical storms have been observed since the start of the year, and only 35 have reached hurricane-force intensity, compared with the long-term average of 85 and 44 respectively.

Arctic sea ice in the summer of 2010, meanwhile, reached the third lowest extent recorded.

"We are extremely concerned... (this) is certainly a measure of global warming," said Jarraud.

The campaign group Oxfam said the findings confirmed the need for a "climate fund" to help people exposed to shifting weather patterns.

"The climate is changing," Oxfam New Zealan's executive director, Barry Coates, said. "This is making it harder for people to survive. In the first nine months of this year, 21,000 people died due to weather-related disasters -- more than twice the number for the whole of 2009."