Global experts: Warming could double food prices

Charles J. Hanley, Associated Press Yahoo News 2 Dec 10;

CANCUN, Mexico – Even if we stopped spewing global warming gases today, the world would face a steady rise in food prices this century. But on our current emissions path, climate change becomes the "threat multiplier" that could double grain prices by 2050 and leave millions more children malnourished, global food experts reported Wednesday.

Beyond 2050, when climate scientists project temperatures might rise to as much as 6.4 degrees C (11.5 degrees F) over 20th century levels, the planet grows "gloomy" for agriculture, said senior research fellow Gerald Nelson of the International Food Policy Research Institute.

The specialists of the authoritative, Washington-based IFPRI said they fed 15 scenarios of population and income growth into supercomputer models of climate and found that "climate change worsens future human well-being, especially among the world's poorest people."

The study, issued here at the annual U.N. climate conference, said prices will be driven up by a combination of factors: a slowdown in productivity in some places caused by warming and shifting rain patterns, and an increase in demand because of population and income growth.

Change apparently already is under way. Returning from northern India, agricultural scientist Andrew Jarvis said wheat farmers there were finding warming was maturing their crops too quickly.

"The temperatures are high and they're getting reduced yields," Jarvis, of the Colombia-based International Center for Tropical Agriculture, told reporters last month.

For most farmers around the world, trying to adapt to these changes "will pose major challenges," Wednesday's IFPRI report said.

Research points to future climate disruption for agricultural zones in much of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and parts of Latin America, including Mexico. In one combination of climate models and scenarios, "the corn belt in the United States could actually see a significant reduction in productivity potential," Nelson told reporters here.

"Unlike the 20th century, when real agricultural prices declined, the first half of the 21st century is likely to see increases in real agricultural prices," the IFPRI report said.

Even with "perfect mitigation," the implausible complete elimination immediately of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, it said real prices for grain would rise because of growing demand and other factors — by 18 percent for rice by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario, to up to 34 percent for corn in the most pessimistic, a scenario envisioning high population growth.

But climate change "acts as a threat multiplier," making feeding billions more mouths even more challenging, IFPRI said.

With climate change factored in, the increases in real prices by 2050 could range from 31 percent for rice in the most optimistic scenario, to 100 percent for corn in the most pessimistic. And IFPRI has estimated that such skyrocketing prices could boost the global population of undernourished children by 20 percent, by an additional 25 million children.

Up until 2050, endpoint of the experts' projections, some of the impact could be offset by research development of higher-yielding varieties of corn, wheat and other crops, and by freer, more flexible global trade in food commodities, IFPRI said.

But beyond 2050, if temperatures rise sharply, "the world is a much more gloomy place for agriculture," Nelson said.

Only deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and billions spent to help farmers adapt to a changing climate can head off serious food shortages, Nelson said. IFPRI, which is supported by world governments, estimates that at least $7 billion additional spending a year is needed for crop research and improved irrigation, roads and other upgrades of agricultural infrastructure.

Needed just as much, it said, are better satellite data on how the world's farming zones are changing crops, land use and practices, and on-the-ground information from "citizen data-gatherers equipped with GPS-enabled camera phones and other measuring devices.

"Such data would yield huge payoffs in illuminating the state of the world as it unfolds," it said.

Climate change to worsen food security, UN talks told
Richard Ingham Yahoo News 1 Dec 10;

CANCUN (AFP) – Surging prices for staple foods in 2008 and 2010 may be just a foretaste of the future as the impacts of climate change and population growth combine, a report issued at the UN talks in Cancun said Wednesday.

Between 2010 and 2050, the price of corn, also called maize, could rise by 42-131 percent, that of rice by 11-78 percent, and that of wheat by 17-67 percent, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) said.

These prices are dependent on a range of 15 scenarios whose factors are the state of the global economy, population growth and changes in rainfall and global temperatures, the think-tank said.

"Climate change will cause lower rice yields all over the world in 2050, compared to a future without climate change," IFPRI warned.

"One of the climate change scenarios results in substantial declines in maize exports in developed countries, but small increases in yields in developing nations. Wheat yields will fall in all regions, with the largest losses in developing countries."

The report said that investing in agriculture in poor countries now was a key to easing the problem. Farmers that have more income have a better chance of coping with droughts, floods and other climate shocks.

"Many have made the case that we have to address climate change to fight poverty. We are saying you must address poverty as a key part of climate change adaptation, and you must do it now," said Gerald Nelson, who co-authored the report.

"Once the most serious effects of climate change kick in, it will already be too late to respond effectively," he said.

Beyond 2050, predicting the temperature rise is more difficult but even so the challenge to food security is "likely to increase," the report said.

"All scenarios now show average temperature increases by 2050 to be on the order of one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). After that, they diverge dramatically, ranging from 2C to 4C (3.6-7.2F) by 2100. Yields of many more crops will be severely threatened."

The report adds to a series of warnings by researchers and watchdogs about the impact of climate change on food supplies as the world's population continues to grow fast.

The current global population of around 6.9 billion will rise to between 7.959 billion and 10.461 billion by 2050, with a mid-estimate of 9.15 billion, according to UN calculations.

The increase will be determined mainly by economic factors. Rising prosperity in poorer countries prompts many families to have few children.

The talks in Cancun are taking place under the flag of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), gathering 193 countries plus the institution of the European Union (EU).

Negotiators, meeting until December 10, are seeking to find agreement on how to curb heat-trapping carbon emissions and devise ways of channelling hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to climate-vulnerable countries.

On Monday, as the talks opened, the UN's Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, Olivier De Schuetter declared in Geneva that as many as 600 million more people could be put at risk of hunger by 2020 because of climate change.

On November 5, Tang Huajun, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, warned production of rice, wheat and corn could fall by five to 10 percent by 2030, and by 37 percent in the second half of the century.

"Agriculture has been the worst hit by climate change and some negative effects have become more obvious due to rising temperatures and water shortages over the past 10 years," Tang told the official China Daily.

IFPRI, a Washington-based think-tank on food problems, is financed by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), gathering 64 governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations.