Rethink unlikely to derail nuclear plans in Asia

Clean nuclear energy, safer design, efficient way to meet higher energy demand cited as favourable factors
Nisha Ramchandani Business Times 4 Apr 11;

(SINGAPORE) The nuclear crisis in Japan - the result of a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and a tsunami ravaging the nation - is now held out as a cautionary tale for countries keen to build up their nuclear power capabilities. But countries in the region are unlikely to pull the plug on their nuclear plans just yet.

According to a February report by the World Nuclear Association, there are over 440 commercial nuclear power reactors operating in 30 countries, providing about 14 per cent of the world's electricity.

More than 60 countries are currently considering nuclear power plans, of which 10-25 are planning to have their first nuclear power stations built by 2030, though it remains to be seen if these numbers will be adversely impacted by the disaster in Japan.

Since the crippling of Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant by the earthquake and tsunami, there has been a lot of soul searching. A slew of countries - from Germany to the United States - have initiated checks on their existing nuclear reactors, while Italy has deferred its nuclear programme for a year.

France (which gets three-quarters of its electricity from nuclear power) has called for international standards on nuclear safety by end-2011, and is pushing for G-20 (the Group of 20) countries to hold nuclear safety talks in May.

'There will be increasing calls to abandon nuclear power and promote alternative energy sources,' said a Frost & Sullivan report.

Still, there are countries such as Russia, China and Indonesia (no strangers to earthquakes) that remain committed to their nuclear plans. Indonesia, for one, is preparing to forge ahead with a nuclear programme that could cost up to US$4 billion, with a three-year feasibility study kicking off in end-April.

China - whose 28 nuclear reactors under development reportedly account for 40 per cent of reactors under construction globally - too is unlikely to be deterred by the recent events in Japan. China is also said to be making headway with clean nuclear energy, having announced plans to develop a thorium-fuelled molten-salt nuclear reactor. While most nuclear reactors are fuelled by uranium, thorium is touted to be safer, cleaner as well as abundant.

India, which currently has 20 reactors in six power plants, is targeting to have 25 per cent of electricity generated from nuclear power by 2050.

The government plans to grant greater autonomy to its Atomic Energy Regulatory Board to ensure a more transparent decision- making process for its nuclear power programme.

Malaysia is reviewing earlier plans to build two nuclear power plants, with the first initially slated to come onstream in 2021.

Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said that it is in the midst of a pre-feasibility study on nuclear energy with safety being a very important consideration. It will be 'a long time' before any decision is made, it added.

With confidence in nuclear energy shaken, shares of companies in the sector have taken quite a beating in recent weeks. This includes Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc, operator of the damaged Fukushima plant, which has seen its share price lose nearly 80 per cent of its value since the earthquake hit. Similarly, shares of Australian uranium producer Energy Resources have also been hit.

'Nuclear energy was making a comeback after taking a backseat in the last 4-5 years. (But now) there's a lot of concern globally on whether it is safe,' says Ravi Krishnaswamy, vice- president of energy and power practice (Asia Pacific) at Frost & Sullivan.

According to the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy, oil accounts for 34.8 per cent of total global energy needs, while coal constitutes 29.3 per cent, with natural gas at 23.8 per cent, hydro power at 6.6 per cent and nuclear energy, 5.5 per cent.

But countries also should not overreact, notes Hooman Peimani, principal fellow at the NUS Energy Studies Institute. With 440 nuclear plants worldwide, major nuclear incidents have been few and far between.

'That's like saying if you cut your finger with a knife, you should stop using a knife,' he says, pointing out that a better move would be to learn how to use it properly.

Dr Peimani does not foresee a dent in the long- term demand for nuclear energy in the region since countries such as China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all need nuclear power to meet their energy needs.

There is also the advent of third-generation reactors with features such as passive cooling - which allows the reactor to cool the core even if there is no electricity - reducing the risk of a meltdown.

Fukushima's reactors, with the oldest about 40 years old, are among the oldest in operation today. 'With today's technology, it is quite possible to have nuclear reactors which can withstand earthquakes, tsunamis and everything else,' Dr Peimani says, adding that the nuclear reactor as well as the plant can be constructed to meet specific safety requirements.