Global warming should be limited to 1.5C, UN climate chief says

Christiana Figueres tells carbon trading conference that the current limit of a 2C temperature rise is 'not enough'
Fiona Harvey guardian.co.uk 1 Jun 11;

The world should be aiming to limit global warming to just 1.5C instead of the weaker current target of 2C, the United Nations' climate chief said on Wednesday.

Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, told an audience of carbon traders: "Two degrees is not enough – we should be thinking of 1.5C. If we are not headed to 1.5 we are in big, big trouble."

She said she had the support of the group of about 40 small island states – many of which are in danger of disappearing as sea levels rise – as well as most African countries and other least developed countries.

Figueres said estimates from the International Energy Agency, revealed by the Guardian, that showed a record rise in carbon emissions from energy last year strengthened the case for urgent action on greenhouse gases.

However, her remarks are likely to cause consternation among developed country governments. The question of whether the world should aim for a 2C limit, which scientists say marks the point beyond which the effects of climate change become catastrophic and irreversible, or a more stringent 1.5C limit, which would provide greater safety, is a sore point in the long-running UN negotiations.

At the 2009 summit in Copenhagen, the reopening of the debate over the 2C limit was one of the worst sources of conflict, setting developed countries against a large section of the developing world. That conflict was widely regarded as one of the key factors in derailing the summit, which ended in a partial agreement amid scenes of chaos and recriminations.

At last year's follow-up conference in Cancún, Mexico, countries compromised by opting for a 2C target while asking for a review of the science to show whether the target should be tougher.

Figueres was speaking on Wednesday in Barcelona, at a Guardian-chaired conference at Carbon Expo, the annual conference of the International Emissions Trading Association.

Another indication of how difficult it will be to reach Figueres' target came from the World Bank, which unveiled research showing that the market in carbon credits under the 1997 Kyoto protocol collapsed last year. Only $1.5bn of Kyoto-based credits were issued, which the bank said was nowhere near enough to help developing countries cut emissions and deal with the effects of climate change.

The carbon markets are supposed to be one of the key ways of reaching the world's target of halving emissions by 2050.