A food crisis will feed instability in Asean

Yang Razali Kassim, For The Straits Times 18 Nov 11;

THE unusually heavy floods in Thailand and other South- east Asian countries are having one major impact - a growing sense of urgency in Asean over natural calamities and possible food scarcity. Indeed, the 19th Asean Summit and related meetings in Bali this week may well have to morph into a de facto crisis meeting of regional leaders. Apart from the region's strategic, political and economic priorities, no issues can be more pressing.

Erratic weather caused probably by climate change brought about the current dire situation in Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. In Thailand, the floods have severely affected rice production. Given its position as the world's largest exporter of rice, Thailand's woes are also affecting its capacity to feed the Asean region. If the situation gets out of hand, there could be repercussions on economic and political stability.

The growing sense of urgency in Asean can be detected in the group's recent official pronouncements. On Oct 12, Indonesia, as the current Asean chair, issued a special statement 'on the floods in South-east Asia', expressing concern over the deluge in some member states. But it also 'emphasised the importance of strong cooperation and coordination' and the 'need for full implementation' of two key mechanisms to deal with food emergencies.

The first mechanism is the Asean Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response or AADMER. The second is the Asean Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management, or AHA Centre. However, the message is laced with concern whether AADMER and AHA are fully ready to play their roles to tackle the looming challenges in human security, especially a possible food crisis in the region where rice is a major staple.

Significantly, five days earlier, on Oct 7, the Asean 10 signed an emergency rice reserve pact with its three North-east Asian dialogue partners - China, Japan and South Korea - also known as the Asean+3. Called the Asean Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (Apterr), the speedy signing of the rice pact underscored the growing collaboration between Asean and its North-east Asian dialogue partners. It also reflects the increasing influence of the three countries on Asean.

Asean officials say that under Apterr scheme, the 13 countries in the Asean+3 will stock 787,000 tonnes of rice to be used in the event of sudden instabilities in supplies caused by natural calamities. The phrase 'sudden instabilities' reflects the growing nervousness within the region over environmental uncertainties. Indeed, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono called on Asean at the last summit in May in Jakarta to consider using the group's rice reserve not only in the event of natural disasters but also economic upheaval.

A senior Asean official has suggested that in the long term, Apterr could expand to other staple foods to help the region deal with volatility in food prices. Indonesian Vice-President Boediono has said food cooperation is to become more urgent in the coming years. The United Nations' Food and Agricultural Organisation has noted that the current floods have caused devastation across South-east Asia, including severe damage to padi fields.

But will floods and food shortage paradoxically bind Asean and North-east Asia closer together?

The growing regional collaboration and cohesion between the two regions within the framework of Asean+3 comes at a time of an evolving strategic landscape. Emerging is a parallel forum called the East Asia Summit (EAS). This involves not only Asean+3 but also Australia, New Zealand and India, as well as two major powers - the United States and Russia. The EAS will have meetings in Bali tomorrow. It would not be a surprise if it addresses food security as well.

Over time, there is a possibility that both diplomatic tracks - Asean+3 and EAS - will emerge to help Asean deal with its growing challenges on the human security front, such as floods and food shortages.

The larger question is one of regional stability. There are very good reasons why Asean is concerned about food security. Rice can be politically sensitive.

Writing online in The Diplomat, a young Filipino political leader, Mr Mong Palatino, observed that rice has the potential to spark an uprising. The precedent cited was Vietnam, when hungry peasants demanding food, rice and independence led the 1945 revolution. Mr Palatino also quoted a leaked security report in the Philippines - denied by the government - warning against possible violent social protests if the government failed to prevent a rice supply crisis this year.

Asean leaders are fully aware of the 'Tunisia effect'. Earlier this year, Tunisia saw a food crisis conspiring with politics to trigger the 'Arab Spring' of revolts that spread quickly across North Africa and the Middle East. South-east Asia is far from being another theatre for such an extreme scenario. But the Asean Summit this week is a timely platform to plan for ways to pre-empt a possible 'South-east Asian Spring'.

The writer is a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.