World has five years to avoid severe warming: IEA

Marlowe Hood AFP Yahoo News 10 Nov 11;

The world has just five years to avoid being trapped in a scenario of perilous climate change and extreme weather events, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Wednesday.

On current trends, "rising fossil energy use will lead to irreversible and potentially catastrophic climate change," the IEA concluded in its annual World Energy Outlook report.

"The door to 2.0 C is closing," it said, referring to the 2.0 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) cap on global warming widely accepted by scientists and governments as the ceiling for averting unmanageable climate damage.

Without further action, by 2017 the total CO2 emissions compatible with the 2.0 C goal will be "locked in" by power plants, factories and other carbon-emitting sources either built or planned, the IEA said.

Global infrastructure already accounts for more than 75 percent of that limit.

To meet energy needs while still averting climate catastrophe, governments must engineer a shift away from carbon-intensive fossil fuels, the agency said bluntly.

"As each year passes without clear signals to drive investment in clean energy, the 'lock-in' of high-carbon infrastructure is making it harder and more expensive to meet our energy security and climate goals," said IEA chief economist Fatih Birol.

The report outlines two scenarios for future energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases.

A "new policies" scenario incorporates existing government promises into a projection up to 2035.

A "450 scenario" lays out a timetable for curbing carbon emissions so that atmospheric concentration of CO2 stays under 450 parts per million (ppm), roughly equivalent to the 2.0 C target.

The current level is about 390 ppm.

Even taking into account current commitments, CO2 emitted over the next 25 years will amount to three-quarters of the total emitted since 1900, leading to a 3.5 C (6.3 F) average increase in temperature since that date.

Business-as-usual emissions would put the world "on an even more dangerous track toward an increase of 6.0 C (10.8 F)," the report says.

Scientists who have modelled the impacts on biodiversity, agriculture and human settlement say a 6 C world would be close to unlivable due to violent extremes of drought, flooding, heatwaves and storms.

The planet's average temperature has risen by about 1.0 C (1.8 F) over the last century, with forecasts for future warming ranging from an additional 1.0 C to 5.0 C (9.0 F) by 2100.

The report forecasts a one-third jump in primary energy demand by 2035, with 90 percent of this growth in developing economies.

Half of that demand will likely be met by increased use of coal, the most carbon-intensive of all major fossil fuels.

China -- already the world's top coal consumer -- is on track to use nearly 70 percent more energy than the United States by that date, it says.

Even under the "new policies" scenario progress toward a low-carbon economy will be halting.

The share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption falls from around 81 percent today to 75 percent in 2035, while renewables increase from 13 percent of the mix today to 18 percent.

This scenario already assumes a huge boost in subsidies for renewables, from $64 billion today to $250 billion in 2035.

"One wonders how many more worrying figures the world needs," commented Connie Hedegaard, the European Union's climate commissioner.

The report "shows that the world is heading for a fossil-fuel lock-in. This is another urgent call to move to a low-carbon economy," she said in a statement.

Setting a global price on carbon, slashing fossil fuel subsidies, boosting renewable energy and energy efficiency and revised tax codes are all tools for achieving that end, she added.


Warming Limit Risk If No Climate Action By 2017: IEA
Nina Chestney PlanetArk 10 Nov 11;

The world may not be able to limit global temperature rise to safe levels if new international climate action is not taken by 2017, as so many fossil fuel power plants and factories are being built, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

If the world is to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius -- thought to be the minimum safety level before devastating effects of climate change set in -- emission volumes must not have more than 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide.

With emissions already at 390 ppm of CO2, time is running out for action.

Around 80 percent of total energy-related carbon emissions permissible by 2035 to limit warming are already accounted for by existing power plants, buildings and factories, the IEA said in its World Energy Outlook.

"As each year passes without clear signals to drive investment in clean energy, the 'lock-in' of high-carbon infrastructure is making it harder and more expensive to meet our energy security and climate goals," said Fatih Birol, IEA's chief economist.

The warning comes just a few weeks before international negotiators gather in South Africa to try and work on a new global pact to fight global warming.

Expectations are low to deliver a binding deal this year. The European Union is pushing for a deal by 2015 but some other countries have been accused of delaying a pact until 2018 or 2020.

"If stringent new action is not forthcoming by 2017, the energy-related infrastructure then in place will generate all the CO2 emissions allowed (...) up to 2035, leaving no room for additional power plants, factories and other infrastructure unless they are zero-carbon, which would be extremely costly."

Additional low-carbon technology and energy efficiency investment to 2035 would need to total $15.2 trillion to limit warming to two degrees -- out of a total energy supply investment of $36.5 trillion, the report said.

'DANGEROUS TRACK'

"Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment avoided in the power sector before 2020 an additional $4.3 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions," the report added.

In 2010, global CO2 emissions rose 5.3 percent from a year earlier to 30.4 gigatonnes. If new climate policies are implemented cautiously, CO2 emissions will rise by 20 percent to 36.4 gigatonnes in 2035, it added.

This would lead to a long-term average temperature rise of 3.5 degrees Celsius. If new policies are not implemented, the world is on a "dangerous track" to a 6 degree rise.

The U.N.'s aim of giving everyone in the world access to modern energy by 2030 would require $48 billion of investment -- or 3 percent of total energy investment to 2030 -- compared to $9 billion in 2009, the IEA said.

The IEA also forecast that the share of renewables from non-hydro sources in power generation will increase to 15 percent in 2035 from 3 percent in 2009, mainly supported by subsidies which should rise nearly five times to $180 billion.

This compares to fossil fuel subsidies which could rise to $660 billion in 2020 without further reform, from $409 billion in 2010.

"By simply redirecting all the fossil fuel subsidies to renewable energy programs the 2 billion poor people would have access to energy not only by 2030, but within this decade," says Sven Teske, senior energy expert Greenpeace International.

The agency sees carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a key technology which could account for 18 percent of emissions savings under the 2 degree limit scenario.

However, if commercial scale CCS is delayed by ten years to 2030, it would add $1.1 trillion to the cost of limiting global temperatures to safe levels, the report said.

(Editing by Keiron Henderson)