Fiscal Crisis Failed to Curb Global Warming Emissions

Wynne Parry LiveScience.com Yahoo News 5 Dec 11;

Believe it or not, there is a potential upside to the global financial crisis that began in 2007. However, it now appears that benefit — namely, putting the brakes on greenhouse gas emissions, and, as a result, global warming — never fully materialized, according to an analysis of two important sources of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.

While a decline in economic activity means fewer greenhouse gas emissions, the most recent crisis seems to have created only a dip in the road to a warmer planet, the analysis indicates.

In fact, after the predictable downturn, emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from two prominent sources climbed to a record high, the researchers found.

"The (global financial crisis) was an opportunity to move the global economy away from a high emissions trajectory," write the researchers, led by Glenn Peters of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Norway, today in the journal Nature Climate Change. "Our results provide no indication of this happening, and further, indicate that the global financial crisis has been quite different from previous global crises."

The rebound in emissions makes the goal of limiting global warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) more difficult to achieve. Negotiators, gathered in Durban, South Africa, are attempting to figure out a solution. [How 2 Degrees Will Change Earth]

Economic crises mean fewer things are sold or built and less fossil fuel is burned as individuals and corporations keep tighter grips on their pocketbooks. This research relied on two crucial sources of carbon dioxide — the burning of fossil fuels, such as gasoline in cars, and cement production, which accounts for 5 percent of human carbon dioxide emissions.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from these sources have dropped in years past; one example was the oil crisis of 1979. And in 2009, during the financial crisis, global emissions dropped by 1.4 percent.

But last year, emissions of carbon dioxide increased by 5.9 percent, reaching a record high and swallowing up any reduction that occurred during the crisis, according to preliminary estimates.

The rapid rise may have been the result of easing energy prices, government investment intended to speed economic recovery and high economic growth in the developing world, the researchers write.

Fossil-fuel emissions unbraked by financial crisis
AFP Yahoo News 5 Dec 11;

Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuels and the cement industry scaled a record high in 2010, rocketing by 5.9 percent over 2009 in a surge led by developing countries, scientists reported on Sunday.

For the first time ever, annual CO2 from these sources topped nine billion tonnes, reaching an estimated 9.1 gigatonnes, they said in a letter to the journal Nature Climate Change.

The year-on-year rise was the highest ever recorded and more than wiped out a 1.4-percent fall in 2009 which occurred as a result of the 2008 global financial crisis.

"After only one year, the global financial crisis has had little impact on the strong growth trend of global CO2 emissions that characterised most of the 2000s," said the letter, led by Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Norway.

The rebound may be explained by a swift easing in energy prices and injections of government funds to help recovery, the authors suggested.

CO2 emissions from rich countries fell by 1.3 percent in 2008 and 7.6 percent in 2009, but increased by 3.4 percent in 2010. The United States, historically the world's biggest emitter and currently ranked second after China, saw an increase in 2010 of 4.1 percent.

Even so, emissions from developed countries in 2010 remained lower than their average emissions when measured over 2000-2007.

In contrast, emissions from developing countries increased by 4.4 percent in 2008, 3.9 percent in 2009 and 7.6 percent in 2010.

This growth was concentrated especially in China, which saw a year-on-year increase of 10.4 percent, and in India, where there was a rise of 9.4 per cent.

The letter, authored by six prominent scientists, was published at the midway point at the UN climate talks in Durban, South Africa.

Nations are struggling for agreement on how to tame CO2 and other "greenhouse" gases which trap solar heat and thus create a man-made trigger for climate change.

One of the biggest bones of contention is whether emerging giant economies should be part of a global, legally-binding treaty.

The United States says a pact can only be envisaged if China and India, in particular, have constraints.

Right now, the developing countries have no specific curbs under the Kyoto Protocol or under the wider agreement in the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The letter published on Sunday concurs with data published last month by the US Department of Energy that focused on fossil-fuel consumption.

According to an analysis on Thursday released by a British risk-analysis firm Maplecroft, five countries -- China, the United States, India, Russia and Japan -- account for more than half of all emissions of man-made greenhouse gases.

Brazil, Germany, Canada, Mexico and Iran lie just behind.