Climate-induced migration a growing humanitarian threat - report

Thin Lei Win Reuters AlertNet 13 Mar 12;

BANGKOK (AlertNet) – Disaster-prone Asia Pacific will see a surge in climate-induced migration this century and governments need to start planning to avoid humanitarian crises caused by millions of people fleeing their homes, a new report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned Tuesday.

Migration linked to climate change, a phenomenon that will “only become more pronounced in the coming years,” poses a growing humanitarian threat, said Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia Pacific.

The report, available in draft form last year, also said most migration in the region would be within national boundaries, and primarily from rural to urban areas. The movement, the bulk of which will involve poor people, is likely to be influenced by social, political and economic changes as well as climate pressures.

The report urged the region’s leaders to protect migrants, improve international cooperation on migrant issues, draw up more comprehensive systems to manage disaster risks, use migration as a tool to adapt to climate change and remove barriers to insurance schemes and remittances that help communities become more resilient.

“By taking actions today, governments can reduce the likelihood of future humanitarian crises” and maximise the possibilities that people can remain in their communities or, if they are forced to move, relocate to more secure places with livelihood options, the report noted.

"People have moved for environmental reasons since the beginning of time. What has changed lately is the policy awareness about it and also how much climate change aggravates this tendency,” said Dina Ionesco, migration policy officer for the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), at the report’s launch in Bangkok.

According to IOM, currently there are around 200 million international migrants worldwide and over 700 million internal migrants, most of them economic migrants.

42 MILLION DISPLACED BY DISASTERS

Storms, floods and other extreme weather events in Asia Pacific displaced more than 42 million people in the past two years, a share of whom became migrants, either unable to return home or opting to relocate, the report said.

The figure does not include those who moved due to slow environmental changes such as desertification, rising sea levels or coastal erosions, problems nations like the the Maldives or Papua New Guinea in particular have suffered.

Numbers of migrants as a result of slow environmental changes are much harder to calculate, partly because such changes take place over a long period of time but also because they are less visible than sudden disasters which displace thousands overnight. However, experts also say these events tend to force people to move away more permanently.

Asia Pacific is already the region most prone to natural disasters, both in terms of the absolute number of disasters and the sheer number of people exposed (60 percent of the world’s population lives in the region).

Climate change is expected to worsen the natural disaster burden, bringing sea level rise, storm surges, flooding and water stress, and leaving more people displaced, at least temporarily.

The report identifies as Asian climate risk ‘hot spots’ booming megacities including Bangkok, Jakarta and Manila, the densely populated low-lying coast of China, southern Pakistan, the deltas of the Mekong, Red and Irrawaddy rivers and the Pacific island states of Kiribati and Tuvalu.

While migration remains a controversial and sensitive issue, governments are realising the importance of a comprehensive migration and resettlement policy, said Bart W. Edes, the director of ADB's division on poverty reduction, gender and social development.

"I think we're aided in part by the reality around what we're seeing - disasters after disasters,” he told AlertNet.

In the Philippines, where ADB is based, a typhoon hit northern Mindanao - an area previously not affected by typhoons - in December, killing more than 1,000 people and leaving tens of thousands displaced.

REMITTANCES FOR RESILIENCE

Coming demographic changes will bring more attention to migration in general, Edes added, and some of the solutions could be applicable to climate-induced migration. He pointed to Japan, which has signed bilateral agreements with Indonesia and Philippines to bring nurses to the country to fill gaps in the labour force left by an aging population.

“This is a practical example, in Asia, of a country that is not famous for being a big land of immigration and yet they have found it their self-interest (to do this),” he said.

The report also stressed the importance of remittances in helping communities deal with climate change and urged for fees surrounding remittances to be lowered.

“Remittances play a massive role in building resilience,” Edes said. In Bangladesh, the Philippines, Tajikistan, and Cambodia, they are “improving livelihoods, diversifying income (and) helping provide a buffer against economic shocks whether environmentally-caused or not.”

And the report singled out AfatVimo, a micro-insurance scheme in India, which covers damage or loss through 19 kinds of disasters, including floods, cyclones, lightning strikes and landslides, as an example of how to build resilience against climate impacts. The annual premium is about $4.50 with a total potential benefit of $1,560.

Migration itself is a crucial means of adapting to climate change, and ultimately affected communities should be allowed to choose to migrate, said IOM’s Ionesco.

"Migration can create alternative livelihoods for people. It can really be part of the solution if it's well managed, well-planned, well-thought-out and well-integrated in other policies, such as humanitarian, development, adaptation and climate change policies,” she said.

"The idea is to plan and forecast this migration that can be foreseen so it's not forced, (so) it remains a choice."

Climate refugees
More than 42 million people in Asia-Pacific displaced by extreme weather events over last two years: ADB report
Nirmal Ghosh Straits Times 14 Mar 12;

BANGKOK: Ningxia Hui autonomous region is more than 1,000km from Beijing and China's booming coastal cities. Near Inner Mongolia, it is one of China's poorest regions, and in recent years has seen both less rain and shifting weather patterns.

It is watered by the storied Yellow River, but that river has been shrinking. Locals in Ningxia Hui get by with just 14 per cent of the amount of water the average Chinese consumes every day.

To adapt, the local government has moved tens of thousands of villagers from parched areas.

Villages stricken by drought are abandoned to let the surrounding ecology regenerate. Those who leave move to subsidised housing close to water and roads, with biogas-based electricity, schools and greenhouses. Relocated villagers also receive financial assistance and training.

Some 180,000 people migrated from drought-hit villages in Ningxia Hui from 2006 to 2010. Over the next five years, 350,000 more will migrate.

Ningxia Hui is one example of the toll of climate change but it is not the worst. China is not even on the list of 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change.

Six of those on the list however are in the Asia-Pacific region - Bangladesh, India, Nepal, the Philippines, Afghanistan and Myanmar.

More than 42 million people in Asia and the Pacific were displaced by extreme weather events over the last two years, said the Asian Development Bank (ADB) yesterday.

Many were those who lived in Asia's low-lying zones close to the sea and major rivers. With the world's temperature expected to rise by up to 2 deg C by 2050, and possibly by up to 4 deg C by 2100, the ADB warned that governments will need to factor in climate change in their development plans, including planning for mass migration.

In a new report - 'Climate-Induced Migration' - released during a two-day conference here, the ADB said that increasing waves of migration are straining the ability of cities and governments to cope.

The best example is Dhaka. The capital of Bangladesh is home to about 12 million people, of which close to four million live in slums. According to the International Organisation for Migration, over 60 per cent of slum dwellers in Dhaka have experienced environmental disasters. And the population is still growing; Dhaka is on course to become the fourth-largest megacity in the world by 2025.

The ADB urged more support for vulnerable populations so that they have a choice not to migrate - and better infrastructure and livelihood alternatives for those who were forced to do so.

Governments need to use new financial instruments including 'catastrophe bonds' and special insurance schemes. The Asia-Pacific region, the bank said, needs to spend about US$40 billion (S$50 billion) a year up to the end of 2050 to 'climate proof' itself.

'The solutions are there, they just cost money,' ADB vice-president Bindu Lohani told journalists.

While people migrate for a variety of other reasons, 'the environment is becoming a significant driver of migration in Asia and the Pacific as the population grows in vulnerable areas', Mr Lohani said.

The existence of sound migration policies can determine whether people become migrants or refugees, said research fellow Francois Gemenne, from the France-based Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations.

Effects of extreme weather

EXTREME weather events displaced more than 42 million people across Asia and the Pacific in 2010 and last year.

Between 2001 and 2010, natural disasters affected an average of more than 200 million people in the region each year, with more than 70,000 deaths.

An estimated 10.7 million people were displaced by extreme weather events related to climate change in Asia alone, in 2011. East, South-east, and South Asia accounted for almost all of the displaced.

Environmental hazards from rising sea levels and associated storm surges are a great concern for low-lying regions in South-east Asia. About one-third of its population live in areas at risk of coastal flooding.

Areas identified as highly vulnerable include the Mekong, Red, and Irrawaddy river deltas. Major cities situated at or close to sea level in the region - including Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh, Jakarta and Manila - are likely to be affected.

Increasingly severe storms, droughts and rising sea levels linked to climate change are likely to dent rice and wheat production.

SOURCE: ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK