U.S. Intelligence Sees Global Water Conflict Risks Rising

Andrew Quinn PlanetArk 26 Mar 12;

U.S. Intelligence Sees Global Water Conflict Risks Rising Photo: Eduardo Munoz
An earthquake survivor drinks water from a well in a provisional camp at downtown Port-au-Prince October 30, 2010.
Photo: Eduardo Munoz

Fresh water supplies are unlikely to keep up with global demand by 2040, increasing political instability, hobbling economic growth and endangering world food markets, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment released on Thursday.

The report by the office of the Director of National Intelligence said that areas including South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa will face major challenges in coping with water problems that could hinder the ability to produce food and generate energy.

The report said that a "water war" was unlikely in the next 10 years, but that the risk of conflict would grow with global water demand likely to outstrip current sustainable supplies by 40 percent by 2030.

"Beyond 10 years we did see the risk increasing," a senior U.S. intelligence official told reporters. "It depends upon what individual states do and what actions are taken right now to work water management issues between states."

The official declined to discuss the risks for specific countries, but in the past water disputes have contributed to tensions between rivals including nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, Israel and the Palestinians, and Syria and Iraq.

The report, drafted principally by the Defense Intelligence Agency and based on a classified national intelligence estimate, said that water in shared basins would increasingly be used by states to pressure their neighbors.

"The use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives also will become more likely," it said, noting that vulnerable water infrastructure was a tempting target.

The U.S. State Department requested the report, which is part of an effort by the Obama administration to assess how long-term issues such as climate change may affect U.S. national security.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is due to hold an event on Thursday to announce a new public-private initiative to grapple with water issues.

SOCIAL DISRUPTION

The report said that during the next 10 years, the over-pumping of ground water supplies in some agricultural areas will pose a risk to food markets and cause social disruption if mitigating steps such as drip irrigation and improved agricultural technology are not implemented.

It also said that through 2040 water shortages and pollution would likely harm the economic performance of important U.S. trading partners by limiting the use and development of hydro power, an important source of electricity for developing countries.

The report rated the management of several key water basins, and said the risks were greatest for the Brahmaputra which flows through India and Bangladesh and the Amu Darya in central Asia.

It said the chief drivers of increased water demand over the next 10 years would be population growth and economic development, although the impacts of climate change will play a growing role, particularly after 2040.

While the intelligence community believes there is no technological "silver bullet" on the horizon to improve water management, the report said the most important step to address the problem would be more efficient use for agriculture, which accounts for 70 percent of global fresh water use.

It also said the United States, which has expertise in water management in both the public and private sectors, could help lead in developing policies for improved global water use and international cooperation.

"The United States has opportunities for leadership, but we also saw it being a risk that if the United States wasn't engaged in exercising that leadership, other states would step up to do that," the intelligence official said.

(Editing by Vicki Allen)

Water wars between countries could be just around the corner, Davey warns
UK Energy secretary tells conference that growing pressure on water resources could worsen existing war and lead to new ones
Fiona Harvey guardian.co.uk 22 Mar 12;

Water wars could be a real prospect in coming years as states struggle with the effects of climate change, growing demand for water and declining resources, the secretary of state for energy and climate change warned on Thursday.

Ed Davey told a conference of high-ranking politicians and diplomats from around the world that although water had not been a direct cause of wars in the past, growing pressure on the resource if climate change is allowed to take hold, together with the pressure on food and other resources, could lead to new sources of conflict and the worsening of existing conflicts.

"Countries have not tended to go to war over water, but I have a fear for the world that climate instability drives political instability," he said. "The pressure of that makes conflict more likely."

Even a small temperature rise – far less than the 4C that scientists predict will result from a continuation of business as usual – could lead to lower agricultural yields, he warned, at a time when population growth means that demand for food was likely to be up by 70% by 2060. By the same time, he noted, the number of people living in conditions of serious water stress would have reached 1.8 billion, according to estimates.

"Climate change intensifies pressures on states, and between states," he told the conference, gathered to discuss whether climate change and natural resources should be regarded as a national security issue. "[Its effects] can lead to internal unrest … and exacerbate existing tensions. We have to plan for a world where climate change makes difficult problems even worse."

But Davey recalled previous global catastrophes that had been averted, including the threat of nuclear armageddon during the cold war, and successes such as the elimination of smallpox. He urged governments to work on adapting to climate change as a matter of urgency, as well as striving for an international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

His call was echoed by Ali Bongo Ondimba, president of the Gabonese Republic. He told the conference that Africa was the most vulnerable part of the world to climate change, but that African people had been responding to a changing climate for thousands of years – his own Bantu people had been forced, centuries ago, to move around Africa as areas dried out and food became scarcer.

Gabon had already started to take action to protect the 88% of its land that is covered by rainforest, and to reduce carbon emissions by its industries, with a view to a "transformation" by 2025.

He warned that seeking to lift people out of poverty could not be achieved at the expense of degrading natural resources. He warned that policies for economic growth across the continent must reflect this immediately: "The impact [of degradation] cannot be reversed by policies conceived too late."