Interconnected risks in more complex security environment

Dylan Loh Channel NewsAsia 9 Apr 12;

He said: "We have made plans to protect our coasts and to improve our drainage. Singapore's coastal reclamation sites were previously required to be at least a minimum of 1.25 metres above the highest recorded historical tide levels. For new reclamation projects, this has now been raised by an additional one metre."

SINGAPORE : Deputy Prime Minister and Home Affairs Minister Teo Chee Hean has said a more complex security environment means there are no dominant risks, but interconnected ones which could come together in a major event.

Mr Teo, who is also Coordinating Minister for National Security, outlined a three-pronged approach to tackle such risks.

Speaking at a security conference on Monday, he called for a multi-disciplinary approach where various perspectives are considered to better understand how things are connected.

Mr Teo also said strategies and responses need to be constantly reviewed.

Lastly, he said international collaboration is crucial for effective response to complex issues, and agencies in different countries must work together.

Mr Teo cited how Singapore deals with climate change as an example of how it has to adapt to a complex challenge.

He said: "We have made plans to protect our coasts and to improve our drainage. Singapore's coastal reclamation sites were previously required to be at least a minimum of 1.25 metres above the highest recorded historical tide levels. For new reclamation projects, this has now been raised by an additional one metre."

Mr Teo added that authorities are doing a Risk Map Study - to be completed by next year - to identify specific coastal areas at risk of flooding.

- CNA/ms

Teo: Countries need to cooperate on security

Risk landscape will grow more complex, diverse with interconnectivity
Malminderjit Singh Business Times 10 Apr 12;

WITH interconnectivity comes increased risk of local events escalating into global ones, so countries need to develop a multi-disciplinary and collaborative approach to security.

That was the gist of Singapore Deputy Prime Minister, Coordinating Minister for National Security and Minister for Home Affairs Teo Chee Hean's message at the opening of the 6th Asia-Pacific Programme for National Security Officers. The growing correlation and connectivity between individual risks and societies have transformed the way countries need to identify and deal with threats to their national interests, said Mr Teo .

'Taken together, what this means is that the risk landscape will become increasingly complex and diverse, with no single dominant risk, but a series of interconnected ones which could coalesce into a major event,' said Mr Teo.

Mr Teo pointed out the paradox of interconnectivity as a key contributor to more complex risks globally as while at the local level being assimilated with a large network may attempt to reduce risk, it 'can increase risk at the overall system level if one part of the interconnected system fails and threatens to bring the whole system down'. Britain, for instance, which has stayed out of the eurozone, is less affected by the eurozone crisis than the countries within it, explained Mr Teo and elaborated that such wider systemic risks could also apply to electrical power grids.

The ubiquity of the internet has in part contributed to inter-connectivity and makes cyber crimes more difficult to track and counter while also amplifying isolated incidents into global events, added Mr Teo.

In addition, he identified demographic and social changes as having a wider impact on national security in the coming years as the growing world population and urbanisation will increase the demand for water and food among other resources, while exposing poor infrastructure and a lack of employment opportunities as pressure points in societies. The pressure on these resources will be worsened by climate change, which threatens to be a risk multiplier, said Mr Teo.

To counter these complex threats, Mr Teo highlighted the need for a multi-disciplinary, adaptive approach and international collaborative strategy.

The first approach is based on developing policies beyond the needs of 'the individual stakeholder, agency or even country', explained Mr Teo, citing the fight against piracy as an example.

Explaining that the current 'mechanism for conducting patrols, escorts and convoying to detect, deter and disrupt piracy in the region' may be inadequate, Mr Teo pointed out that shipowners may need to get involved in these efforts 'by keeping up-to-date with real-time information about pirate activities to better plan their routes and avoid areas of higher pirate activity'.

'Some shipowners and countries have also employed guards, including armed security teams, on board their ships,' he added but acknowledging that a more comprehensive approach will have to include increased efforts by the international community to enhance governance and economic development in Somalia, to address the root causes of piracy.

An adaptive approach is also necessary to deal with the dynamic risks and thus warrants the 'need to constantly review and renew our strategies and responses', said Mr Teo.

Singapore's National Climate Change Strategy is based on such a principle, he explained, as current reviews have led to coastal reclamation sites now being raised by an additional one metre than the minimum level of 1.25 metres above the highest recorded tide levels to safeguard against projected sea level rises by the year 2100, while water agency PUB has developed a diversified water supply strategy through the 4 National Taps. These measures have helped protect Singapore's coasts and improve the resilience of its water supply.

International cooperation is necessary among enforcement agencies to address transnational crime, added Mr Teo and highlighted the Interpol Global Complex for Innovation, which will open in Singapore in 2014, as an example of such collaboration.

'This facility will also allow enforcement officers around the world to share real-time criminal data, analyse cyber threats and trends, and work more closely together when fighting new types of crime, including transnational crime and cybercrime.'

Global risk landscape getting more complex
A series of interconnected risks can bring down a whole system: DPM Teo
Bryna Sim Straits Times 10 Apr 12;

THE global risk landscape today is highly complex and will be increasingly so in the future, said Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean yesterday.

Instead of a single dominant risk, the world could face a series of interconnected risks which could then become a major event, he said.

Mr Teo gave his thoughts on the changing nature of the risks to national security at the sixth Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers, held at Sentosa Resort and Spa.

Started in 2007, the programme brings together government officials from the Asia-Pacific to exchange perspectives on the latest developments impacting national security.

To illustrate how the failure of one part of an interconnected system could threaten to bring an entire system down, Mr Teo used the recent example of how the euro zone crisis was precipitated by the Greek debt crisis.

In his speech, Mr Teo, who is also Coordinating Minister for National Security and Home Affairs Minister, did not speak directly on the threat of terrorism, but instead highlighted issues such as cybercrime, demographic and climate change, all of which he said would become increasingly important as 'risk multipliers'.

Quoting statistics from the World Economic Forum's Global Risks 2012 Report to show how interconnected the world is today, the minister said that the 'networked and complex' nature of the Internet means cyber attacks on the home front can happen even when its perpetrators are located overseas.

About 470 million smartphones had been sold worldwide by the end of last year, and the figure is expected to double by 2015, he said.

Then there is demographic change: A growing global population means an increased demand for clean water and food - something that could tip the balance in maintaining global stability.

'Food security - not just the production, but also the transportation, distribution and willingness to supply or withhold food exports - will continue to be a challenge,' Mr Teo said.

Of ways to meet these challenges, Mr Teo suggested three: A multi-disciplinary approach, an adaptive approach, and international collaboration.

The minister stressed the need for nations to 'constantly review and renew' their security strategies and responses.

'The risks confronting us are dynamic, and new developments can easily render our solutions obsolete,' he said.

Mr Teo also spoke of the new Interpol Global Complex for Innovation, which will open here in 2014. He said the facility would enable enforcement officers from around the world to work more closely together when fighting new types of crime.

Mrs Evelyn Wu, a programme participant and senior deputy director of the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority training school, agreed that more cooperation between nations is needed.

'We definitely need to work together to learn, unlearn, and re-learn some of these issues,' she said.

Another participant, Mr Bernard Miranda, director of the National Maritime Operations Group, said the focus of national security has 'always been and remains on terrorism'.

He added: 'Mr Teo has brought to the fore issues that we may not have paid enough attention to, which shows how our risk landscape has changed.'