Singapore government seeks feedback on population issue

It lays out demographic challenges in paper, launches site to collect views
Phua Mei Pin Straits Times 27 Jul 12;

THE Government is ramping up its drive to engage the public on population, a current hot-button issue that it says has far-reaching implications for Singaporeans' opportunities and quality of life.

Yesterday, it released a comprehensive paper laying out Singapore's demographic challenges and dilemmas, and launched a website to collect feedback.

Among the questions posed by the paper are: how to raise birth rates, what immigration to have, and how to ensure a good living environment.

At the heart of the debate is the need to manage population growth, immigration and integration while trying to raise productivity to keep the economy going.

The ultimate aim, said the paper, is to come up with a policy that 'strengthens our social cohesion, provides a good living environment for our people, and maintains our economic vitality'.

The Government is expected to release a White Paper on population by the end of the year which is expected to incorporate the feedback collected.

The population puzzle has become a complex issue, going beyond birth rates to the topic of how many immigrants and foreign workers should be taken in.

The National Population and Talent Division's paper - titled Our Population, Our Future - follows a flurry of research papers in recent months and is the first document to set out Singapore's demographic challenges in full.

In particular, policymakers are concerned about the potential impact of low birth rates, a shrinking working population and a drop in the old-age support ratio.

The paper notes that while immigration can help supplement the shortfall in births, 'we recognise that we cannot grow our foreigner population indefinitely'.

'The issues we have to deal with are closely inter-related and complex, with long-term implications for Singapore and far-reaching effects,' it adds.

The paper was mentioned by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong last night on Facebook. Responding to calls for him to address the issue at the National Day Rally, he said the population issue was 'an important and difficult problem'.

The chairman of the Government's feedback arm, Dr Amy Khor, said she hoped engagement would 'bring about greater appreciation of Singapore's complex demographic challenges'.

The Behavioural Sciences Institute director David Chan said the move will give the Government a chance to understand citizens' concerns, but added that it should take the feedback seriously.

'There should also be a genuine discussion on the validity and implications of the various basic assumptions underlying the economic and population models that frame the issues,' he said.

Some Singaporeans were keen to respond. Human resource consultant Martin Gabriel, 45, said he would send ideas on parenthood, adding: 'There must also be some system that can bring people together so they can exchange their experiences. Singles and married people can learn from each other about family life, not just read from a paper or the Internet.'

Views on birth rates, foreign inflows sought
Public input will go towards White Paper to formulate policy for future
Phua Mei Pin Straits Times 27 Jul 12;

SINGAPOREANS' opinions are being sought on various aspects of the population puzzle, with the Government looking to tap the public's ideas as it works on coming up with a policy for the future.

Over the next three months, they are being invited to send their thoughts on issues from raising birth rates and strengthening cohesion to managing foreign worker inflows and getting more Singaporeans into the workforce.

In a paper titled Our Population, Our Future released yesterday, the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) sets out Singapore's demographic challenges, and proceeds to ask the public to submit input on some 15 questions.

Taken together, they reveal the dilemmas that policymakers face when addressing different aspects of the population puzzle.

For example, one notes that the Government has cut the inflow of immigrants since 2009, and asks: 'Should we reduce the inflow further even if it means that our citizen population will age and shrink, and foreign spouses may find it more difficult to become permanent residents or Singapore citizens?'

Another asks: 'If the foreign worker inflow is to be tightened, which group should be targeted - construction workers, maids, professionals, Singaporeans' foreign spouses, or others?'

The feedback will go towards a government White Paper on population expected to be ready at the end of the year, said the NPTD.

Members of the public have until Oct 31 to send in their views at www.population.sg

The division has met close to 200 people including students and those from the community sector, businesses and unions to get their input, and will continue to do this through dialogues.

Political observers say the latest move to collect feedback is a sign that the Government understands the importance of population issues to Singaporeans - especially with immigration being a hot-button topic.

Institute of Policy Studies research fellow Carol Soon said: 'The Government could consolidate key suggestions and constructive criticisms and publish them on the website, as well as the Government's responses to these feedback.'

Nee Soon GRC MP Lee Bee Wah, who has already circulated the call for feedback on her Facebook page, believes that Singaporeans would welcome being asked for their views.

'Once the Government has decided which ideas it is going to adopt, it should acknowledge them so that residents feel good about participating and don't think they're writing into a black hole,' she said.

Agreeing, student Murugiah Komala, 24, said: 'It gets people interested and as people talk, more ideas are bound to get bounced around.'

Govt seeks public views on population issues
Tan Qiuyi Channel NewsAsia 26 Jul 12;

SINGAPORE: The National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) has released an Issues Paper to ramp up its public engagement on Singapore's population challenges going forward.

The paper, which is available online, aims to help Singaporeans understand the choices and trade-offs the country has to make.

NPTD said it's important that Singaporeans develop a shared understanding of these issues, which can go towards finding the right balance to build a sustainable population.

Director of Policy & Planning at National Population & Talent Division, Ngiam Siew Ying, said: "We are engaging the public extensively this year to hear their views, because we think it's an important issue that affects all of us. We have to look at the issue comprehensively, to achieve a population that is strong and cohesive, living in a good quality environment, with an economy that provides for good jobs and opportunities for all of us."

Labour economist Associate Professor Randolph Tan, head of UniSIM Business Programme, said the release of the Issues Paper is timely.

"It's good that we're getting this process of public consultation about population policy started now. But I don't think the public should be hasty in trying to come to a determination on what policies we should fix, until we have actually gone through a whole process of analysing the different possible scenarios. That could be a few years down the road, but it's not too early to start now," he said.

The paper is part of an ongoing consultation as NPTD prepares a White Paper on Population, scheduled for release at the end of the year.

The NPTD paper, entitled "Our Population, Our Future", lays out Singapore's demographic challenges in the face of declining birth rates, a shrinking workforce, and an ageing population.

As at December 2011, Singapore had 3.27 million Singapore citizens (SCs), and 0.54 million Permanent Residents (PRs). Together, they made up the resident population of 3.81 million.

Singapore also had a non-resident population of 1.46 million who are working, studying or living in Singapore on a non-permanent basis.

Singapore's total population was 5.26 million as at December 2011.

Of the non-resident population, the majority (46 per cent) are work permit holders (excluding foreign domestic workers) and 14 per cent are foreign domestic workers.

The others are: dependants of citizens and PRs as well as work pass holders (15 per cent); students (6 per cent); Employment Pass holders (12 per cent); S Pass holders (8 per cent).

The majority 43 per cent of foreign manpower work in services while 30 per cent work in construction.

Manufacturing takes 27 per cent and a minority 0.4 per cent work in other sectors.

The paper spells out the future implications of a shrinking and ageing workforce - fewer working people to support every elderly person; a less vibrant, less innovative economy; and eventually, a hollowing out of the population as young people leave for more exciting cities.

Associate Professor Randolph Tan said: "One of the things that we've learnt about demographic projections this far into the future is that they're notoriously unreliable. In fact over the last 15 years or so, Singapore and Hong Kong have had a remarkably similar experience in this regard. Total fertility rate has actually gone up in times of economic downturns, and has gone down when there is strong economic revival.

"You can't actually say that this is stylised fact that you can apply to all countries, but on a case-by-case basis, economists have actually observed that there is a counter-cyclical attribute between the total fertility rate and the economic growth cycle."

It's also possible that high immigration is depressing the fertility rate, Professor Tan said, so future population studies could look at the relationship between the two.

Authorities are reviewing existing policies to encourage more Singaporeans to get married and have children.

The authorities are also looking at the number of new citizens Singapore takes in, as well as the make-up of its non-resident workforce to support its needs.

Experts said there is a key difference between meeting short-term economic needs like manpower and answering Singapore's demographic challenges.

Professor Tan said: "Short-term economic priorities have to do with, for instance, the manpower shortages that we meet at a time when we need to take advantage of certain growth opportunities.

"Long-term demographic challenges have to do with whether you are actually setting up families that could give rise to a nurturing environment, so that you don't necessarily get a productive workforce out of it immediately, but at least you get a healthy, happy nation out of it."

The discussion continues as Singapore reaches a demographic turning point. More than 900,000 post-war baby boomers will hit 65 - the retirement age - from this year onward. That's over a quarter of the current citizen population.

NPTD is seeking public feedback through its newly launched population website at www.population.sg.

The public can also send their feedback by email: nptd_contact@nptd.gov.sg, fax: 6325-3240, or post.

The mailing address is:
The National Population and Talent Division,
Prime Minister's Office, 5 Maxwell Road #13-00
Tower Block MND Complex, Singapore 069110

The consultation runs till 31 October 2012.