Warming seas’ effect on trade through Singapore

Gearing up for climate change
Straits Times 6 Mar 13;

Warming seas’ effect on trade

WASHINGTON - The quickest way to get goods from Asia to the United States' East Coast in 2050 might well be straight across the Arctic, where a warming climate is expected to open new sea routes through what is now impenetrable ice.

Most shipping traffic between these two centres now goes through the Suez or Panama canals, and that is likely to continue even as melting Arctic sea ice makes the far north more accessible, according to a new study out on Monday.

But increasingly warm temperatures also could make the North-west Passage, north of Canada, an economically viable shipping route.

Now, it is passable only at the end of most summers.

Warmer temperatures could also open up a highly seasonal route directly over the North Pole by mid-century, according to the research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Plus.

The across-the-pole route, which had never before been considered, would be available only to light ice-breakers capable of ploughing through ice 1.2m thick.

The Northern Sea Route, which mostly hugs Russia's northern coastline and is now a primary Arctic shipping route, would continue to be viable, according to geography professor Laurence Smith at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Last September, the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre said that Arctic sea ice had melted to its lowest recorded level.

The Arctic is one of the fastest-warming places on Earth because of the so-called albeido effect, where sun-reflecting light-coloured ice is frequently replaced by sun-absorbing dark-coloured water. The more ice melts, the warmer things get.

Melting ice could make these Arctic routes more viable, Dr Smith said.

Using projections of global warming and Arctic ice loss, he said that by 2050, the North-west Passage will be sufficiently navigable to make the trip from the North American east coast to the Bering Strait in 15 days, compared to 23 days for the Northern Sea Route - about a 30 per cent reduction in the time taken.

This is never likely to be a year-round proposition since winter sea ice will always recur, Dr Smith added.

A large Russian tanker, the Ob River, capable of carrying 150,000 cubic metres of gas, made a pioneering voyage in November and December last year across the Northern Sea Route, becoming the first ship of its kind to sail across the Arctic.

"The round trip of the vessel from Asia to Europe and back has confirmed the technical and commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route for the global liquefied natural gas business," the Russian energy giant Gazprom said in a press release.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, observed in a post on his Facebook page last November that it was hard to predict how the Ob River's voyage would affect ports like Singapore in the long term.

However, Singapore should not be too badly affected by the new Arctic shipping routes, said Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide during a visit to the city-state last November.

Container ships carrying goods that need to arrive at a specific time will still take the traditional route through Egypt's Suez Canal, which is more reliable and brings trade closer to Singapore, said Mr Eide.

And he suggested that Singapore can benefit by using its shipping expertise to develop ports along the Northern Sea Route.

REUTERS

UK: Prepare for floods, drought

LONDON - Britain should do more to prepare for climate change after extreme weather last year brought both drought and floods, according to the Environment Agency.

The United Kingdom had floods in one out of every five days last year while one in four days was in drought, the agency said in an online report.

Some rivers went from their lowest levels to their highest on record within a four-month period. England had record rain last year and 7,950 properties flooded across the country. Yet the United Kingdom can expect "severe, short-term drought" every 10 years, the agency said.

Part of the flooding problem is due to previous policies, said the BBC. For decades, farmers were paid to drain boggy land to improve it for grazing. This caused water to rush off the fields into rivers, whereas previously it would have been held in the bogs, flowing into the rivers throughout the year. In addition, many flood plains have been built on.

Agency chairman Chris Smith said that England needs to learn how to save water when it is raining and disperse it from populated areas when it floods, according to London's Daily Telegraph.

This means cutting red tape to encourage landowners to build small-scale water storage reservoirs on farms, golf clubs, sports stadiums and racecourses to survive dry spells.

At the same time, water companies must be encouraged to take water from rivers only when levels are high and to store the reserves in reservoirs.

Planners must be nudged to build green spaces and ditches to store water in towns and cities and stop it from building up in roads. Homes can help by fitting water meters and saving water.

BLOOMBERG

More extreme Aussie weather

SYDNEY - Climate change was a major driving force behind extreme weather events that alternately scorched and soaked large sections of Australia in recent months, according to a report just issued by the country's Climate Commission.

A four-month heatwave during the Australian summer culminated in January in bush fires that tore through the eastern and south-eastern coasts of the country.

Torrential rains and flooding followed in the more densely populated states of New South Wales and Queensland, leaving at least six people dead and causing roughly US$2.43 billion (S$3 billion) in damage.

Scientists have long been hesitant to link individual weather events directly to climate change. Australian scientists in particular have been cautious about linking the two, partly because of the country's naturally occurring cycles of drought and floods, which are already extreme compared with much of the rest of the world.

But the Climate Commission report argues that the frequency and ferocity of recent extreme weather events indicate an acceleration that is unlikely to abate unless serious steps are taken to prevent further changes to the planet's environment.

"I think one of the best ways of thinking about it is imagining the baseline has shifted," commission leader Tim Flannery told Australian Broadcasting Corp. At least 123 weather records fell during the 90-day period examined, including milestones such as the hottest summer on record.

NEW YORK TIMES

Obama picks EPA, energy chiefs

WASHINGTON - US President Barack Obama has named Ms Gina McCarthy, an experienced clean air regulator, to take charge at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and Professor Ernest Moniz, a physicist and strong advocate for natural gas and nuclear power as cleaner alternatives to coal, to run the Department of Energy.

But Mr Obama still must confront refashioning the American way of producing and consuming energy, hurdles that stymied climate and energy policy in his first term.

Mr Obama has embraced unconventional natural gas production, which has brought lower energy prices and reduced emissions as utilities switch from coal to natural gas to produce electricity.

But hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking, presents difficult environmental issues, including the possibility of groundwater contamination and the unregulated release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

Mr Obama has also pursued offshore drilling for oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico and the Arctic Ocean, despite environmental risks.

And the administration appears inclined to approve a pipeline to carry heavy crude oil from tar sand formations in Alberta, Canada, to refineries in Texas. But a State Department environmental impact report notes that extracting, shipping and refining the Canadian oil would produce more greenhouse gas emissions than other types of oil.

NEW YORK TIMES