Shift to a new climate likely by mid-century - study

Alister Doyle PlanetArk 10 Oct 13;

Billions of people could be living in regions where temperatures are hotter than their historical ranges by mid-century, creating a "new normal" that could force profound changes on nature and society, scientists said on Wednesday.

Temperatures in an average year would be hotter by 2047, give or take 14 years, than those in the warmest year from 1860-2005 if the greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, with the tropics the first affected area, a new index indicated.

"The results shocked us. Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon," lead author Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii said. "Within my generation whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past."

The data suggested the cities to be hit earliest included Manokwari in Indonesia, which could shift to a new climate from 2020 and Kingston, Jamaica, from 2023 under the fastest scenario of change.

At the other extreme, Moscow would depart from historical variability only in 2063 and Anchorage in 2071.

In all, the scientists found that between 1 and 5 billion people would be living in regions outside such limits of historical variability, underscoring the impact already under way from a build-up of man-made greenhouse gases.

"Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries," according to the study in the journal Nature that urged cuts in greenhouse gases to limit damage to human society and wildlife.

The tropics are most vulnerable to shifting to a new state because the climate was naturally in a narrow band, they said. The Arctic is now suffering the fastest absolute temperature rises, but temperatures have naturally swung widely in history.

However, commentators noted the study did not fully address how people may become better adapted at dealing with the warming, potentially negating some of its effects.

Skeptics who question the need for urgent action have become emboldened by the fact that temperatures rose more slowly over the past 15 years despite increasing greenhouse gas emissions, especially in emerging nations led by China.

However, leading climate scientists said last month they were more convinced than ever that humans were the main culprits for global warming, and predicted the impact from greenhouse gas emissions could linger for centuries.

HOW NATURE ADAPTS

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the hiatus in warming was a natural variation that would not last, and the Earth was set for more floods, droughts and rising sea levels from melting ice sheets that could swamp low-lying islands.

Efforts to curb emissions could delay the average expected date for the shift to a new normal climate to 2069, according to the scientists based in Hawaii and Japan.

Other experts welcomed the study as a novel perspective on climate change - most past studies examine the climate at a fixed date such as 2050 or 2100 rather than predict the timing of a shift to a new state.

"This shows the point at which what is now an extreme year becomes the norm," Chris Huntingford of the Center for Ecology and Hydrology in England told Reuters of a commentary in Nature he wrote with Lina Mercado of Exeter University.

Huntingford noted that the study focused on a shift in mean temperatures - meaning that freak cold years in future could still be chillier than the hottest years in the historical record examined, led by 2005 and 1998.

Huntingford said the study did not fully examine the possibility that people and nature may be better at adapting to warming than expected. "It remains one of big open questions," he said.

A heatwave in 2003 in Europe, the hottest in 500 years, killed up to 70,000 people but better preparations now would reduce the toll if it were to happen again, many scientists say.

The study examined temperatures back to 1860, for which reliable records are available. The U.N. panel of climate scientists said in its report that the period 1983-2012 was likely to have been the warmest in the past 1,400 years.

For the Nature study, click here: dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature12540


IMF, World Bank heads lend clout to climate change efforts
Reporting by Valerie Volcovici, editing by Ros Krasny PlanetArk 9 Oct 13;

IMF, World Bank heads lend clout to climate change efforts Photo: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon
Visitors are silhouetted against the logo of the International Monetary Fund at the main venue for the IMF and World Bank annual meeting in Tokyo October 10, 2012.
Photo: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon

At a panel on the opening day of their 2013 autumn meeting, Lagarde and World Bank Group President Jim Young Kim said climate change was a priority for their lending institutions, the first time the two had addressed the issue together in public.

Lagarde said measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can add much needed revenue to national economies and steer countries toward the development of cleaner renewable energy.

"There are two things that they should focus on. One is get the (carbon) pricing right and we can help them with that," Lagarge said, referring to measures such as applying carbon taxes and establishing emissions trading schemes.

"The second thing we can do is gradually phase out and remove the subsidies that apply to energies, and particularly fossil energies," Lagarde said.

The subsidization of fossil fuels currently amounts to upwards of $485 billion, she said.

The IMF published a report in March making the case for energy subsidy reform.

The paper said that subsidies were expensive for governments, and that rather than helping consumers, they detracted from increased investment in infrastructure, education and health care which would help the poor more directly.

The IMF also plans to publish a report by mid-2014 providing U.S. policymakers with guidance on how to design a carbon tax within the context of broader fiscal reform and fiscal consolidation objectives.

Lagarde and Kim have put a brighter spotlight on climate issues at their respective institutions than their predecessors, stepping up efforts to reducing pollution in the absence of a global agreement on climate change.

"We think a global agreement is critical but there are things we can do right now before we have an agreement that would make a difference," Kim said.

Kim said the World Bank is focused on three major areas: ensuring sustainable energy for all countries, supporting low-carbon urban planning, and shaping "climate smart" agricultural programs.

"If we focus on those three areas, along with the effort the IMF is making on removing fuel subsidies, that's a robust response to this climate change problem," Kim said.