Global emissions stall in 2014 following slowdown in China's economy

Carbon dioxide emissions stayed the same last year compared to 2013, data shows, but falling oil prices may cause them to rise again
Fiona Harvey The Guardian 13 Mar 15;

A slowdown in China’s economic growth helped the world to a pause in the upward rise in greenhouse gas emissions last year, according to data released on Friday.

China burnt less coal last year than expected, as the projected rise in its energy demand faltered along with the rise in its economic growth, and as the expansion of its renewable energy generation continued.

Emissions of carbon dioxide related to energy use were flat in 2014, compared with the previous year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. Previous pauses or falls in the upward march of global emissions, such as that experienced in 2009, were closely related to economic shocks.

Global carbon dioxide output was 32.3bn tonnes in 2014, which the IEA said was unchanged from the previous year, while global GDP rose by 3%. However, the data is still preliminary and will not be confirmed until mid-June. It is not possible at present to say how much of the pause in the growth of emissions was down to policy and how much to economic forces, nor whether this pause is likely to continue.

The dramatic fall in the price of oil over the last few months will also be an important factor in whether emissions rise again next year, as cheaper oil is associated with increasing greenhouse gas levels.

Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the IEA, warned that the apparent one-year pause in the growth of emissions was too soon to regard policies as successful. She said: “The latest data on emissions are indeed encouraging, but this is no time for complacency, and certainly not the time to use this positive news as an excuse to stall further action.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned in 2007 that global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by around 2020 for the world to stay on track to hold global temperature rises to no more than 2C on average, the level regarded as the limit of safety beyond which the effects of climate change are likely to become irreversible and catastrophic.

Global governments will meet in Paris this December to discuss a possible new agreement on climate change to include commitments on curbing emissions after 2020, when current commitments end.

Ed Davey, the UK energy and climate secretary, said: “These figures show that green growth is achievable not just for Britain but for the world. However we cannot be complacent – we need to dramatically cut emissions, not just stop their growth. Getting a new global climate deal is absolutely vital, and the year ahead is going to be of critical importance.”

Ahead of the Paris conference, governments of major economies, both developed and developing, are expected to come up with proposals to cut or curb their emissions in the 2020s. The United Nations (UN) has set a deadline of the end of March for submitting such proposals, but this may not be met in all cases.

Last November, the world’s two biggest emitters - the US and China - jointly announced their commitments under the UN process. The US has pledged a cut of 25% to 28% by 2025, compared with 2005 levels. China has pledged that its emissions will peak by 2030, a goal that the European Union’s former climate chief told the Guardian was “very late” compared with what China is capable of.

Future data from the IEA, scheduled to be published in June, is likely to give an indication of whether China’s emissions could be expected to peak sooner than the 2030 deadline, on business-as-usual expectations.

Developed countries in the past decade have experienced a “decoupling” of carbon emissions from economic growth, with rising GDP alongside lower emissions. However, some observers have said this was only possible because the manufacturing and contingent energy use needed to fuel economic growth were taken on by developing countries such as China.

The pledges made by countries under the UN climate change negotiating process, including a commitment by the EU to cut emissions relative to 1990 levels by 40% by 2030, will be examined by the UN in the months leading up to the Paris talks.

'Long struggle' warning on climate
Roger Harrabin BBC 13 Mar 15;

America’s chief climate negotiator has warned of the long battle ahead to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Todd Stern told BBC News that by the end of the month, he expects the US to make a “quite ambitious” declaration on climate change.

He praised China’s projected offer to the December climate summit in Paris.

But he said the conference would not itself solve the climate problem. That, he argued, would need ongoing effort over decades.

Nations are desperate for the Paris meeting to avoid a repeat of the shambolic gathering in Copenhagen in 2009 that failed in its billing as the summit to save the planet.

This time, rich nations have agreed to make their offers well in advance to reduce the chance of last-minute chaos.

Long view

The EU has already offered a 40% cut on 1990 levels by 2030. The US will soon offer – probably a 26-28% reduction below 2005 levels by 2025. Comparison is hard because of different baselines, but some experts say the two appear roughly comparable in terms of effort.

China is expected to offer to peak emissions by 2030 at the latest, and to produce 20% of its energy from nuclear and renewables by the same date.

Mr Stern said: “You can look at the US, the EU, China - you could say I wish they did a little more than that, but that is a significant target the Chinese have announced. It’s not perfect - but then nobody’s is.”

He warned against expectations that the Paris summit would produce an agreement to keep global temperature rise within 2C.

“The two-degree goal will be reached if countries execute a deep decarbonisation of their economies over a significant period of time," he said.

“So what will we see from this agreement, if we get what I would like? We’ll get strong initial targets. They are not going to be everything everybody wants but I want to caution people against looking at this agreement from a 2015 snapshot.”

China’s commitment to add 800 gigawatts of renewables or nuclear was “really impressive,” he said. “This is an enormous amount – more than all the coal used in China now. To put it in perspective, the entire US energy system is about 1,100 gigawatts.”

I first met Mr Stern when he was advising President Clinton on climate policy. I asked if he felt positive about progress since then. He replied: “I think we have come quite far but there is quite far to go. In the US, more has happened to developing technologies and putting in place regulations that will drive the energy transformation. That has never happened before.

“On the international agreement, there has been a lot of movement and we have a historic opportunity to deliver an important agreement in which all countries are genuinely part of the regime and taking action that’s ambitious and rules-based, fair and durable. If we do this right, it will send a message to markets that we are on a path to action and there’s no going back.”

The US has recently begun to turn the screw on the other great power, India, which has declined to offer climate targets because it says India is too under-developed to make promises to cut emissions.

Pressure from the other powers is unwelcome in Delhi. “This is the pot calling the kettle black”, Kirit Parikh, a former member of India’s planning commission, told BBC News.

“China is saying it will peak in 2030 but not what level it will peak, and not when it will reduce emissions away from that peak,” he said. They could hit a peak and stay there. This is just an illusion of progress.”

His comments sound an alarm bell for Paris. The great economic blocs may be back-patting at their mutual efforts – but the summit is supposed to embrace all nations.

Mohamed Adow, a Kenyan working for Christian Aid, said: “The initial commitments from the big polluters are inadequate – they won’t put the world on the path to two degrees. Anyway, two degrees is too much for Africa – we are already seeing terrifying impacts after only 0.8 degree level of warming; that means adapt or die for parts of Africa and we can’t accept that.”

The great powers are likely to keep their promise to put their targets up for scrutiny this month - but when that happens it's them who will become the targets.