Drier and hotter months ahead with higher risk of transboundary haze

SAMANTHA BOH Straits Times 26 Jun 15;

SINGAPORE - There are drier and warmer months ahead for the republic due to the prevailing El Nino weather phenomenon, which the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) said would also increase the risk of transboundary haze.

"We may see an escalation of hotspot activities, particularly in the fire prone provinces in Sumatra and Kalimantan," the MSS said in a media release on Friday.

It said sporadic hotspots from forest and plantation fires, with localised smoke plumes, had been observed in Sumatra in recent days, but the impact of the smoke haze on the republic would depend on factors such as the proximity and extent of the fires, the strength and direction of the prevailing winds, and the incidence and amount of rain.

The meteorological service said most models from major global climate centres show a high likelihood of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures continuing to warm over the coming months to reach strong El Nino levels.

Drier and warmer weather conditions are already being experienced here, indicating the start of the traditional dry season in the southern Asean region.

The total rainfall for June was 38 per cent below the long-term average, with average daily maximum and minimum temperatures between 31.9 and 26.5 degree Celsius - about 0.6 and 1.7 degree Celsius above the long-term average respectively.

Singapore expects lower than usual rainfall for the next few months, with the total monthly rainfall for July predicted to be 15 to 45 per cent below average.

In anticipation of drier weather - and thus the possibility of haze - the Inter-Agency Haze Task Force is coordinating the action plans of various agencies.

The National Environment Agency's (NEA) haze forecasts and advisories will take into account the Ministry of Health's health advisories and Ministry of Manpower's workplace guidelines.

The public can access NEA's advisories at the NEA website (www.nea.gov.sg), the haze microsite (www.haze.gov.sg), or follow NEA on NEA Facebook (www.facebook.com/NEASingapore) and NEA Twitter (@NEAsg).

Drier, warmer weather in Singapore for the next four months
Authorities urge the public to conserve water as reservoir stock levels will likely be affected by the reduced rainfall.
Channel NewsAsia 26 Jun 15;

SINGAPORE: Due to moderate El Nino conditions which are likely to further develop during this monsoon season, the Republic can expect drier and warmer weather for the next four months, announced the National Environment Agency on Friday (Jun 26).

The average daily maximum and minimum temperatures for June (as of Jun 25) are 31.9°C and 26.5°C, about 0.6°C and 1.7°C above the long-term average respectively. In 2009, the last time moderate El Nino conditions were seen, the average daily temperature was 28.5°C.

The risk of transboundary haze is also predicted to be higher - the Meteorological Service Singapore has said that sporadic hotspot activities with smoke plumes were recently seen in Sumatra. This could affect Singapore, but would depend on factors like wind direction and rainfall. Rainfall is expected to be from 15 per cent to 45 per cent below average.

As such, the Inter-Agency Haze Task Force (HTF) is co-ordinating the agencies’ respective action plans in preparation for haze. NEA’s haze forecasts and advisories will take into account the Ministry of Health's health advisories and Ministry of Manpower's workplace guidelines.

The total rainfall recorded for June was 38 per cent below the long-term average. Authorities are urging the public to conserve water as reservoir stock levels will likely be affected.

- CNA/hs

Weather forecast: Hot, dry, possibly hazy
JOY FANG Today Online 26 Jun 15;

SINGAPORE — Amid predictions by experts in some countries that El Nino in the coming months could wreak as much havoc as it did in 1997, the weatherman today (June 26) forecasts that Singapore, along with the region, would be drier and warmer than usual until September or early October.

The lower rainfall this month looks set to continue into July, with total rainfall expected to be 15 to 45 per cent lower than the long term average for the month, the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) said today.

This is “partly due to the prevailing moderate El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are likely to further develop in the months ahead”, it added.

El Nino, which comes along every two to seven years, is the abnormal warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can potentially wreak havoc with weather conditions. In the case of South-east Asia, it can lead to prolonged drier and warmer weather.

In 1997, when the El Nino effect was the strongest on record, Singapore experienced one of the lowest annual rainfalls. The Southwest Monsoon season — June to September — that year saw a “sharp” 53 per cent drop in rain.

MSS had said last month, in response to TODAY’s queries, that with several Pacific Rim countries declaring that El Nino is here, there is a 60 to 70 per cent chance of Singapore experiencing weak El Nino conditions in the coming weeks.

It noted in its press release today that most models from the major global climate centres project “a high likelihood that the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures would continue to warm over the coming months and possibly reach strong El Nino levels”.

But the MSS said the relationship between the strength of the El Nino and the impact on rainfall is not straightforward as there are other factors affecting local and regional rainfall patterns.

Still, national water agency PUB urged the community and businesses to conserve water in preparation for drier months ahead, noting that reservoir stock levels could be affected.

The drier and warmer weather in the region, exacerbated by the prevailing El Nino conditions, may also result in an escalation of hotspot activities, warned the MSS, adding that sporadic hotspot activities with localised smoke plumes have been observed in Sumatra in recent days.

The Inter-Agency Haze Task Force is coordinating the agencies’ respective action plans in preparation for haze and MSS will continue to monitor the regional weather and haze situation, it said.

The effects of El Nino can already be felt this month with MSS recording fewer rain days. The total rainfall up until Thursday, was 38 per cent below the long-term average.

The average daily maximum and minimum temperatures during the same period were also higher — 31.9°C and 26.5°C, about 0.6°C and 1.7°C above the long-term average, respectively.

On Tuesday, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology warned that the El Nino developing across the Pacific has strengthened further, highlighting patterns shown by the data that are similar to the record 1997 to 1998 event, reported Bloomberg.

The Bureau, however, hastened to add that it is not possible at this stage to determine how intense it will be, and that an El Nino’s strength does not always correspond to its impact.

While India experienced a wetter-than-normal June, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology predicts a “large-scale reduction” during the first half of July, which has sparked fears that this might disrupt and stunt growth of rice, cotton and soybeans, Bloomberg reported.

“If the prediction of weak rains proves correct, there’s going to be an adverse impact on the economy as a whole, more so on agriculture,” said Professor Shashanka Bhide, director of the Madras Institute of Development Studies.

The last occurrence of El Nino in 2009 had brought the worst drought in four decades to India, cutting rice output and driving up sugar prices.

For Singapore, total rainfall over the June to September period in 2009 was about 20 per cent below the long-term average, and the average daily temperature for the same period was 1.1°C higher than the long-term average of 27.4°C.

Singapore to get drier and hotter
The Straits Times AsiaOne 27 Jun 15;

SINGAPORE - Singapore will be experiencing a drier and warmer than usual Southwest Monsoon season from June to early October this year, the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) said in its forecast.

This is partly due to the prevailing moderate El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are likely to further develop in the months ahead.

With fewer rain days experienced this month, the total rainfall for June recorded at the Changi climate station so far is 38 per cent below the long-term average.

Lower rainfall is expected to persist over the next few months, the National Environment Agency (NEA) said. For July 2015, the total monthly rainfall is forecast to be 15-45 per cent below average.

To prepare for the drier months ahead, the Public Utilities Board has urged the community and businesses to conserve water.

Warmer days and nights have also been common recently. The average daily maximum and minimum temperatures for June so far are 31.9°C and 26.5°C, about 0.6°C and 1.7°C above the long-term average respectively .

Major global climate centres project a high likelihood that the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures will continue to warm over the coming months and possibly reach strong El Niño levels.

During the the strongest El Niño on record in 1997, Singapore experienced a sharp 53 per cent reduction in June-September rainfall. During the moderate El Niño in 2009, Singapore's rainfall total was about 20 per cent below the long-term average. The average daily temperature for the same period in 2009 was 1.1°C higher than the long-term average of 27.4°C.

NEA said however, that the relationship between the strength of the El Niño and the impact on rainfall is not straightforward as there are other factors affecting local and regional rainfall patterns.

With drier and warmer weather expected over the southern ASEAN region in the coming months, there could be more fires, particularly in the fire prone provinces in Sumatra and Kalimantan. This would increase the risk of transboundary haze in the region.

The impact of the smoke haze on Singapore is dependent on factors such as the proximity and extent of the fires, the strength and direction of the prevailing winds, and the incidence and amount of rain, NEA said.

Recently, sporadic hotspot activities with localised smoke plumes have been seen in Sumatra. In addition, drier and warmer weather conditions have prevailed over Singapore and the surrounding region, indicating the start of the traditional dry season in the southern ASEAN region.