Energy-Hungry India Eyes Role As "Wind Superpower"

Alistair Scrutton, PlanetArk 3 Dec 07;

When it comes to renewable energy and wind power, India can look the West in the eye and say -- look at our years of progressive policies

NEW DELHI - India might be painted as a pollution-spewing, global-warming economy of 1 billion people but it is also one of the world's biggest wind power users, part of a focus on renewable energy mostly unnoticed in the West.

Years of tax incentives have helped make India one of the fastest-growing markets for wind power, a major component of renewable energy that will be high on the agenda of the Dec. 3-14 UN climate change meeting in Bali, Indonesia.

The Bali conference comes as international pressure mounts on India to ensure its growth gets cleaner. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned this month of the climatic dangers of "unfettered" energy demand growth in India.

"When it comes to renewable energy and wind power, India can look the West in the eye and say -- look at our years of progressive policies," said Santosh Kamath, a wind power specialist and associate director at KPMG consultants.

Wind power in India is still a minority sector compared with the Asian giant's overall energy needs that are dependent on coal and oil.

With its reliance on dirty fuels, India will become the world's number three carbon emitter by 2015, the IEA says.

But renewable energy, of which the vast majority is wind power, accounts for more than 7 percent of India's installed generation capacity -- a rate that compares favourably with much of the rest of the world.

India is the world's fourth largest wind-power market.

"Wind power is growing tremendously. If you want a wind plant you'll have to book a year in advance," said Chandra Bhushan, associate director at the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment.

"There's been years of progressive policies and recognition for a long time that India will face a shortage of fossil fuels."

India, with its thousands of miles of coastline, is suited to wind power. Its wind power potential is estimated at 45,000 megawatts (MW) -- about a third of total energy consumption.

There is also little of the concern in India seen in the West over wind turbines ruining scenic vistas -- scores can be seen, for example, outside Jaisalmer's ancient fort in Rajasthan, one of India's most popular tourist sites.


A WIND SUPERPOWER?

The boom brings in profits, the kind of virtuous circle experts say is needed for renewable energy to really work.

At Vestas RBB India Ltd, one of India's largest wind-power firms, sales rose 30 percent in 2006 and the company forecasts growth of about 40 percent this year, company officials say.

India's rise to what supporters call a "wind superpower" is due to tax breaks in the 1990s and to Tulsi Tanti, chairman of Suzlon Energy, India's biggest wind energy company.

Troubled by power shortages in the 1990s for his textile business in western India, he bought some wind turbines and soon realised it could be a good business. His company quickly became the pioneer in the sector.

Wind power has also been helped by some states setting targets that 10 percent of their power should come from renewable energy.

High capital costs and the fact wind is intermittent -- plants often run at a quarter of their capacity compared with 80 percent capacity for nuclear power -- mean that it is expensive and the sector has needed tax incentives to survive.

Rakesh Bakshi, managing director of Vestas RBB, said provisions were still needed until economies of scale mean "we can give conventional energy a run for its money".

But as oil reaches US$100 a barrel, and with India suffering shortages that see factories often relying on diesel generators, firms are increasingly looking at wind.

Sarvesh Kumar, deputy managing director of Vestas RBB, said many clients were large manufacturers, such as cement or textile firms, concerned about the long-term energy costs.

KPMG estimates that wind power costs around 3.5 rupees a kilowatt hour, compared with 2.5-3 rupees for imported coal.

"Wind energy is almost price competitive in many places," T.L. Sankar, senior energy adviser at the Administrative Staff College of India, told a renewable energy conference.

And global warming might only add to its attraction.

"It can only gain in importance because of concerns about climate change," added Kamath.

(Editing by Y.P. Rajesh and David Fogarty)

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Wind Power Sets Sail From Crowded Germany

Sylvia Westall, PlanetArk 3 Dec 07;

Stanford University researchers have found that if only 20 percent of the world's wind power could be captured, it would satisfy 100 percent of energy demands for all purposes and over seven times its electricity needs.

BERLIN - Nearly 19,000 wind turbines cover Germany: dotted across the countryside, nudging to the edge of cities and whirring alongside motorways.

They generate 5 percent of Germany's electricity -- more than in any other country in the world. But with the best plots already taken, there are now few spaces left where companies are allowed to build more. And it's not just a German problem.

"There's not that much empty land space," said Steve Sawyer, secretary-general of the Global Wind Energy Council, which represents the industry. "Northern Europe is this little, crowded peninsula on the western tip of Asia with an awful lot of people.

"The next big phase of development in places like Germany and Holland will be offshore, where the resources are so much better."

With a target of generating around 30 percent of its electricity using renewable energy sources by 2020, Germany is one of several countries where investment is being poured into offshore wind technology. The first large sites are planned for next year in the North and Baltic seas.

In countries keen to reduce emissions and dependency on fossil fuels, offshore is the place to invest, analysts say.

Thanks to offshore investment, Germany's environment ministry predicts wind power could generate around a third of electricity by 2030, more than currently generated using gas.

The country's engineering association estimates there is 50 billion euros (US$74.31 billion) worth of potential investment in offshore wind.

"At the moment I would buy German offshore wind projects," said associate William Young at consultant New Energy Finance. "There's a sea-change going on in offshore at the moment which could allow some good money to be made for people who are willing to take calculated risks."

It is not just a question of space. Offshore turbines can also work harder, generating at full capacity up to 50 percent of the time. Sheltered onshore turbines work at full tilt around 20 percent of the time.


LAND GRAB

In Britain, where around 1.5 percent of electricity is produced by wind, opposition to 50 metre-tall turbines near homes has meant companies are also looking out to sea.

"The land-grab has happened," said John-Marc Bunce, alternative energy analyst at broker Ambrian Partners.

"In places like the UK there was never really enough land anyway and the government was crazy thinking anyone would want to have a wind turbine next to their house."

Also, as the European Union makes emitting carbon more costly, utilities once wary of investing in renewables are taking note. Under EU rules, companies have to buy extra emissions permits if they produce too much harmful carbon dioxide, making polluting more expensive.

Germany's biggest power producer, RWE, said last month it plans to quadruple its generating capacity from renewables, investing 1 billion euros annually from 2008, mainly in onshore and offshore wind.

In countries which have space on land, investment is also wise, Bunce says: the United States alone could supply most of the world's wind power growth in the next five years.

Recent research supports the theoretical potential of wind power.

Stanford University researchers have found that if only 20 percent of the world's wind power could be captured, it would satisfy 100 percent of energy demands for all purposes and over seven times its electricity needs.


NO SILVER BULLET

But offshore wind is not without drawbacks, and over the longer term, it could be upstaged by other sources.

"It costs a lot more and it's a lot more difficult. The development of offshore technology is in the same place that onshore wind industry was eight, 10 years ago," said Sawyer at the Global Wind Energy Council.

Offshore turbines have to be installed and maintained in much harsher conditions, and while they can be bigger and more powerful, they need to be extra reliable.

"It's almost like designing a ship. You can't afford to have a 5 million euro machine standing offshore, and some 25-cent part breaks and have it sitting idle for a month," Sawyer said.

Germany is seeking to "repower" its onshore sites with new, more powerful turbines and with offshore being riskier, it is wise to invest in other technologies too, analysts say.

"Offshore will only be truly widely accepted when the benefits are really seen, when the first big projects take off," said Johannes Lackmann, head of Germany's renewable energy association. "We have to develop all renewable energy resources. Some will prove fit, some will not and fall to the wayside."

So the industry has a tricky choice: invest now or wait until technologies improve, hoping there is a better answer.

"There's no silver bullet. There's going to be far greater energy efficiency: it's going to be offshore wind, onshore wind and a little of solar, plus cleaner coal, plus nuclear and gas," said Young at New Energy Finance.

"Renewables are not the answer, they are just a small part of the answer."

While wind is cost-competitive over the next decade, advances in solar and wave technology will eventually make these sources equally, if not more attractive, analysts say.

"Longer term, solar makes a lot of sense because you put it anywhere. Further down the line, it's wave power," Bunce said.

But while turbines can be installed off the coast, floating wind farms are unlikely to be a viable option.

With some in the shipping industry concerned about how wind farms could block radio frequencies and shipping lanes, the amount of suitable sites near the coast is limited.

(Additional reporting by Jeremy Lovell in London)

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Singapore companies on way to building green data centres

Study shows that the effort is part of corporate social responsibility goals
Amit Roy Choudhury, Business Times 3 Dec 07;

A NEW study has revealed a welcome trend among Singapore and Asia-Pacific companies: they are more aware of the harmful environmental effects that large, power hungry data centres have and are looking at ways to make these centres more environmentally friendly.

The 2007 Green Data Centre report by Symantec shows that three-fourths of the survey respondents have an interest in adopting a strategic green data centre initiative.

However, the flip side, according to Symantec's Darric Hor, is that only one in seven have been successful at implementing a green data centre, 'illustrating a stark contrast between interest and execution'.

Mr Hor, who is general manager of Symantec Singapore, noted that for the purpose of the study a green data centre has been defined as one which has increased efficiencies in energy usage, power consumption, space utilisation and reduction of polluting energy sources.

'Data centre managers are running out of space and energy costs are skyrocketing, so they are motivated to 'green' the data centre for cost reduction and efficiency purposes,' Mr Hor noted. However, a clear motivator that separates Singapore and other Asia-Pacific countries from other regions is that the 'greening the data centre' rollouts are being done more from a sense of responsibility to the community, rather than being driven by cost savings and business profitability demands alone, he added.

The study notes that 66 per cent of respondents in Asia-Pacific, including Japan, (APJ), indicated energy efficiency is either a critical or high priority concern in their data centres.

While 76 per cent of APJ companies are at least considering a green strategy, only one in six (16 per cent) have begun implementing a green data centre.

Mr Hor said it was pleasing to note that the Singapore and Asia-Pacific managers who responded to this survey adopted corporate social responsibility positions.

'In some cases, corporate boards have developed a triple bottom line that includes formal metrics to measure economic, social, and environmental success,' he said.

'To meet their environmental objectives, some companies have pledged to reduce total energy consumption, while others have stated their intent to reduce their carbon footprint.' The Symantec official noted that many data centre professionals are increasingly turning to software solutions, including those that manage server consolidation and virtualised environments, as they develop and implement their green initiative.

In their responses to the survey, data centre managers have indicated that software designed for server consolidation and server virtualisation are the most popular solutions in creating energy efficiencies, with 51 per cent and 47 per cent indicating plans to consolidate and virtualise servers respectively.

Around 68 per cent of respondents indicate that reducing energy played a role in their decision to implement virtualisation and server consolidation.

In addition to server consolidation and virtualisation, those who implement a green data centre strategy are more likely to use software for storage resource management, server management and data deduplication.

Irrespective of the technique used, at the end of the day Singapore enterprises will gain in cost reduction and increased efficiency from their 'green' initiatives, and from unifying the initiatives seamlessly with their business demands, Mr Hor noted.

'They need to also manage the pervasive challenges in the data centre complexity - particularly around server consolidation and virtualisation.'

Singapore based CIOs (chief information officers) today have a unique opportunity to strengthen their companies' green efforts through a variety of measures, the Symantec official said.

'They need to develop the company's strategy to accommodate tighter IT asset management and impress on vendors the need to use less toxic substances and more energy-efficient technologies.'

The survey respondents revealed that most data centre managers are at least planning to implement power management products, with 30 per cent implementing on selected equipment, 13 per cent on equipment throughout the data centre, and 34 per cent either planning to use or currently evaluating.

Mr Hor noted that in addition to server virtualisation and consolidation, energy efficient CPUs were the second-most popular technology for data centre power reduction, with 28 per cent of respondents citing this as one of the two technologies they think will reduce power consumption.

The following were also described as possible solutions that respondents either plan to implement, or are currently implementing: replacing old equipment with more energy-efficient equipment (44 per cent); recycling obsolete hardware components (39 per cent); monitoring power consumption (38 per cent); and reducing the space used by servers (37 per cent).

'The findings indicate that cost savings and constant business pressure to maintain performance and meet increasingly aggressive service level agreements are the main reasons for implementing many green strategies.

For them it's beyond environmental concerns - it's about meeting business goals and reducing costs,' Mr Hor noted.

However, the survey participants noted that while energy efficiency is a priority, it must be balanced by business needs: 'The increasing emphasis on creating energy efficiencies has added another layer of complexity in managing today's data centre.'

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Hidden colony of orang-utans is discovered in the forests of Borneo

Daniel Howden, The Independent 3 Dec 07

Conservationists working to combat deforestation on the island of Borneo have uncovered a "hidden colony" of 800 orang-utans in an area under imminent threat from the expansion of the palm oil industry.

The previously uncounted apes have been found in the Sungai Putri, a tract of rare peat swamp forest in the West Kalimantan province of Indonesian Borneo. But the area has recently been rezoned by local government and concessions for palm oil plantations could be sold at any time.

Frank Momberg, country director of the conservation group Flora and Fauna international, is part of a group of scientists and environmentalists who were studying the massive carbon deposits in the area when they came upon the colony. "Local people knew of course [that they were there]," he said. "But no scientist had ... recorded this population before."

Mr Momberg is leading an urgent effort to protect the 57,000-acre forest and guarantee a future for the orang-utans and other endangered species in Sungai Putri, as well as the millions of tons of carbon it secures.

Borneo is divided between Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, and is at the epicentre of deforestation worldwide. Half of all tropical timber used on the planet comes from this one island. Peat swamp forests like Sungai Putri are among the most important carbon sinks on the planet, yet vast areas of them have been drained in recent years for conversion to agricultural land, releasing millions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

The swampy floor of Sungai Putri, thick with decaying trees and rich organic matter up to 11m deep in places, is not only a dense, deep carbon sink, says Mr Momberg, but the "most efficient terrestrial ecosystem for the sequestration of carbon".

Deforestation accounts for one-fifth of all carbon released into the atmosphere and Indonesia's slash and burn policies have already seen the country become the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

It has also meant massive habitat loss for Asia's only great ape. The orang-utan could be the first great ape to be made extinct. The "man of the forest" used to be common throughout Asia but now survives only on the islands of Borneo and Sumatra. There are some 7,000 Sumatran orang-utans left and the estimated population of 40,000 remaining on Borneo is also in steep decline.

Delegates at the climate talks in Bali will be asked to radically expand the Kyoto Protocol which would see countries like Indonesia rewarded for avoiding further deforestation.

If the proposals, backed by scientists, environmentalists, developing nations and a growing business lobby, can be agreed, areas such as Sungai Putri could be worth millions of dollars and play a key role in combating climate change.

But the quick returns offered from palm oil mean the threat to the forest remains real and 70 per cent of Sungai Putri could be wiped out within five years.

"Farmers use fire to clear the land and fires are already burning at the edges," said Mr Momberg. "Illegal logging is ongoing with small scale but continuous degradation of the forest."

Help may be at hand from a new kind of conservation effort. A green investment company, Carbon Conservation, has been working with local communities, Flora and Fauna International and local government to bring in outside funding. They are setting up a scheme under which private-sector investors put in money which is used both to protect the forest and offer alternative incomes to local people. In return investors get carbon credits for the area which has avoided deforestation.

At the moment the market for the voluntary credits is small but that could change overnight if the UN talks deliver an international framework deal.

Dorjee Sun, the chief executive of Carbon Conservation, said that negotiations were well advanced. A leading investment bank and others were just waiting for a signal from Bali.

"The private sector is showing the way by buying voluntary credits, now it's over to the governments in Bali," he said. "It's time for them to just do it."

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Best of our wild blogs: 3 Dec 07

Is the Labrador talk really that cheap?
another view of someone who attended Cpt Francis' briefing on the justin dive blog

Labrador's living intertidal shore
and more about the volunteers who work on our shores on the wildfilms blog

Dredging on Changi
and other thoughts about our northern shores on the budak blog

The Making of a Nature Guide
the inside story on the manta blog

Should 10,000 people fly to Bali to fight climate change?
Gerard Wynn on the reuters environment blog

In defence of the underdog(s)
comments on 'Has Singapore gone to the dogs?' on the nearly lucid blog

Teaching the baby heron to hunt
on the bird ecology blog

Read more!

Sea turtles face threat from Indian ports plan

Debabrata Mohanty, The Independent 3 Dec 07;

One of the world's largest sea-turtle nesting beaches is facing a double development threat from industry on India's east coast.

A large port is planned either side of the main nesting site of the threatened Olive Ridley turtles in Orissa where up to 300,000 of the reptiles come ashore to lay their eggs every year.

The Olive Ridley, among the smallest of the world's seven marine turtle species, is found in the tropical and subtropical waters of the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans, and swims great distances to haul itself out on to the sandy beaches of Orissa for its annual egg laying ritual.

However, over the past 13 years, more than 130,000 Olive Ridleys have been washed up dead in the area, after being caught in the nets of trawlers and gill netters. And now the species, listed as "vulnerable" by the World Conservation Union, is facing the risk of being driven from the coast completely by the proposed ports on either side of its nesting site.

Tata Steel, one of the biggest industrial companies in India, is building a £294m deepwater port at Dhamra, near a river mouth, a mere eight miles north-west of the nesting beaches of the Gahirmatha marine sanctuary. This is one of the largest nesting beaches in the world for marine turtles, with 100,000 to 300,000 nesting there every year.

On the other side of the nesting beaches, the Korean steelmaker Posco has proposed a £343m dedicated port for its 12 million-ton steel plant, 42 miles to the south.

They are big developments: the port by the Indian conglomerate is likely to have a total capacity of 83 million tons a year within 10 years while Korean steelmaker's port will handle 31 million tons a year.

Conservation groups such as Operation Kachhapa and Greenpeace fear the ports would add to the existing problem of loss of suitable undisturbed breeding habitat.

The activists have singled out the Tata Steel port, given its proximity to the nesting beach and the ancillary development it would spawn. "Tata Steel's port at Dhamra would be an ecological blunder," said Sanjiv Gopal of Greenpeace India. "We recently conducted a rapid biodiversity assessment which found the presence of Olive Ridley turtles as well as the endangered crab-eating frog and the white belly mangrove snake. The results have made it clear that the project cannot go ahead, in the absence of a comprehensive and impartial environment impact assessment."

Greenpeace also referred to a satellite telemetry study by the Wildlife Institute of India in 2001 showing turtle movements near the proposed port. But thousands of them also die a gory death as they are trapped in the nets of fishing trawlers that illegally scour the coast.

"The artificial lights from anchoring vessels on Dhamra port and shore-based megaport-based industries would disrupt the breeding and nesting of the Ridleys as the hatchlings would be disoriented by artificial light," said Biswajit Mohanty of Operation Kachhapa (Sanskrit for turtle).

An expert body of the Indian Supreme Court suggested that the company and the local Orissa government should look for an alternative site.

"The routes that will be used by shipping will necessarily be through the turtle congregation areas offshore. Oil spills and sundry pollution will inevitably occur in the event of a large port being set up. It is therefore necessary that an alternative site is located for this port," the body said in response to a petition filed by a Delhi lawyer in 2003.

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Prices unlikely to rise after destruction of contaminated vegetables: AVA

Channel NewsAsia 2 Dec 07;

SINGAPORE : Vegetable prices in Singapore will not be affected by the destruction of some 200 tonnes of contaminated veggies.

The vegetables from six farms in Sungei Tengah and Lim Chu Kang Agrotechnology Parks had to be destroyed after they were contaminated by a red dye released from an RSAF aircraft more than a week ago in preparation for an upcoming aerobatic display.

The Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority says the vegetables destroyed comprise less than 1 percent of Singapore's consumption and so will not affect vegetable prices.

Farmers who spoke to our reporter say they hope to grow new crops in time for Chinese New Year.

Others are hoping for adequate compensation from the Defence Ministry. - CNA/ch

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AVA says vegetables in markets safe to eat: following checks on vegie farms with 'red spots' Channel NewsAsia 1 Dec 07;

Farmers told to destroy 200 tonnes of greens after red dye from airbase falls on them
Mindef says dye was from an aircraft being tested on the ground last Friday
Jessica Jaganathan & David Boey, Straits Times 1 Dec 07;

Read more!

Transformed Mount Faber

Transformed Mt Faber eyes MICE business
It hopes to double capacity before Sentosa facilities come onstream
Lynette Khoo, Business Times 3 Dec 07;

AFTER a major revamp in 2004 that saw Mount Faber transforming from a cable car station to Singapore's second most visited paid tourist attraction, Mount Faber is now eyeing the meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions (MICE) business.

Before the MICE facilities in the integrated resort at Sentosa are up and running, Mount Faber hopes to double its own MICE capacity. Its facilities can currently hold 1,200 persons at any one time.

'We have been working with the relevant authorities for land space,' Mount Faber Leisure Group CEO Susan Teh told BT. 'We are still in talks to see how we can expand.'

The existing MICE facilities are already fully utilised during peak season and 80 per cent booked during off-peak period, she said.

From a low base, revenue from the MICE segment has grown by a staggering 290 per cent since Ms Teh took office in 2004, and has become a significant growth driver for the group.

Ms Teh now hopes to position Mount Faber as a 'total solutions' for MICE events, given the unique offering of conference venue amid the lush flora and fauna, attractions, food and beverage (F&B), business centre service and coach transport that enables visitors to arrive in style.

Some major institutions and corporations that have already tapped Mount Faber's MICE facilities include the International Monetary Fund, Citibank Singapore, UBS and Singapore Telecommunications.

Confident that Mount Faber offers a unique hilltop experience not seen in other parts of Singapore, Ms Teh reckoned that the MICE facilities at Resorts World at Sentosa would be complementary rather than competitive.

'As the government is targeting 17 million (visitors by 2015), there will definitely be spillovers and everyone can have a piece of the pie,' Ms Teh said.

With companies increasingly looking for unique places to hold corporate functions, Mount Faber now has an event management team that helps to plan corporate events such as dinner and dance parties and product launches.

Since Mount Faber's revamp in 2004 that saw the group embark on a strategy of diversification, significant improvements have been seen not just in its facade, but also translating to headline numbers.

Its profit has doubled from 2004 while its revenue has tripled over the same period. The revenue mix has shifted from predominantly cable car receipts to an even contribution from F&B, MICE, cable car rides, attractions and wholesaling.

Mount Faber now serves a broad target group by providing casual to formal dining, family attractions to venues for corporate events, and has seen a mingling of tourists and locals.

The revamped Mount Faber also saw an increase in visitor arrivals from 1.2 million in 2004 to 1.8 million year-to-date.

'We are targeting two million visitors, an all-time high, and we are on track by the end of this year,' Ms Teh said.

The icon of the revamped Mount Faber - Jewel Box - which houses its MICE facilities and F&B outlets, sits on the hilltop which was previously only used for the cable car station.

Other selling points of Mount Faber stem from its 'four seasons' campaign, which changes the design and colours of the facade at Jewel Box every quarter, including touch points like menu and cocktails, offering a different experience each time.

'You can't find another attraction in a hill environment. The Jewel Box itself has already started to benefit from the brand and this is what we will leverage on going forward,' she added.

Ahead of the opening of the Sentosa IR, other non-MICE facilities at Mount Faber will also get a facelift to cater to the sophisticated and discerning visitors that the IR is expected to attract.

This would include upgrading the F&B area which comprises Altivo, Glass Bar, Faber Rock and Faber Hill Bistro, and increasing retail outlets, Ms Teh said.

'We are working with the relevant authorities to improve the accessibility here,' she added.

Without letting on whether a tram line is in the pipeline, Ms Teh said that the authorities will look at improving accessibility in the southern precinct in general and can be expected to talk to various stakeholders to achieve this.

RELATED ARTICLES


Sentosa planning to develop Mount Faber ahead of IR
Channel NewsAsia 14 Aug 07

Read more!

Food retail prices set to rise as supplies cost more

Supply price index for food jumped 10% in October over last year
Erica Tay, Straits Times 3 Dec 07;

THE price of a meal out seems set to rise as food supply costs, especially for imports, soared for the second month in a row.

Many eateries have yet to pass on the higher charges to customers, but economists believe they will not be able to hold out much longer, given the severity of the cost hikes.

Official figures released last week showed that Singapore's domestic supply price index (DSPI) rose 4.9 per cent in October from a year ago, and its food component, 10.3 per cent. This followed a 10 per cent jump in September.

While its more famous cousin, the consumer price index (CPI), tracks price rises faced by end-consumers, the lesser-known DSPI tracks the prices of goods made locally or imported that are retained for use in the domestic economy.

This means that while the increase in the price of a bowl of noodles is reflected in the CPI, increases in the prices of the ingredients - such as flour, meat and condiments - are reflected in the DSPI.

The DSPI showed prices of live animals were 24.5 per cent higher in October than a year ago; of eggs and dairy produce, 41.6 per cent; of vegetables and fruit, 5 per cent. Fish prices fell 0.5 per cent.

DBS Bank economist Irvin Seah said the new data signals that faster rises in consumer food prices are probably just around the corner.

Food makes up the largest chunk of the CPI, which is used to calculate the headline inflation rate.

The average Singapore household saw its food bill go up by 4.3 per cent in October from a year ago.

'Consumer food prices usually follow supply prices with a lag, as retailers and food sellers tend to absorb cost hikes for some time,' Mr Seah said.

United Overseas Bank economist Ho Woei Chen expects food inflation to rise, saying: 'Suppliers will eventually have to pass on higher costs.'

She said rising rents, wages and food costs will force those in the catering sector to raise prices for consumers.

Restaurateur Nicholas Pang has seen ingredients rise 20 per cent in price in the past six months.

'Pork and poultry cost 15 per cent more, and cooking oil is up by 30 per cent,' said Mr Pang, who runs three Japanese restaurants and one fast-food outlet.

Still, he has not raised his menu prices. He said: 'It doesn't make sense to up your prices every time costs increase.'

He prefers to sign forward contracts with suppliers to lock in costs, and switch to alternatives when possible.

'But if food costs keep rising, we must at some point review our prices,' he noted.

Increasingly expensive imports - particularly of meat, live animals, dairy produce and eggs - are a major factor behind higher supply prices.

Fuelling the jump in farm produce prices is a global supply crunch caused by bad weather and by a shift in farm use towards growing crops for biofuels as rising crude oil prices make biofuels more viable, explained Ms Ho.

The food portion of the import price index also rose in October, by more than 10 per cent from a year ago.

Higher food inflation is a global issue, said Standard Chartered Bank economist Alvin Liew. He said: 'Agricultural produce prices have soared in countries such as China, from which Singapore imports a great deal.'

He predicted CPI food inflation will average 4 per cent next year.

Mr Seah was more pessimistic: 'We are looking at between 5 and 6 per cent.'

Low-income groups will be hit the hardest by higher food prices as a greater chunk of their income goes to food, he added. Thus, he argued, 'policy action is needed to cushion rising food costs'.

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No major fuss over Hanoi's huge dam project

Roger Mitton, Straits Times 3 Dec 07;

Interestingly, unlike similar projects in the region such as the Three Gorges dam Son La has evoked little international attention. Part of the reason is that Vietnam is building it without any outside funding or construction assistance. And doing so with quiet, almost clandestine, efficiency.

HANOI - SIX months ago, the people of Ta Sai, a tree-shaded village nestled by the majestic Black River in mountainous north-western Vietnam, were ordered to pack up and leave.

Trucks took the residents, mostly ethnic minority subsistence farmers and fishermen, up a hillside several kilometres away. They were left at a stony, treeless site with no water or electricity and told to carve out new lives.

'We were given money to build new homes, but if we wanted a decent place, it would cost a bit more than what the government gave us,' said Mr Luong Van Dieu, one of the village headmen.

Although many miss their leafy riverside village with its stilt houses, the Ta Sai people consider themselves lucky.

Mr Dieu, of the Tai minority, said: 'We only had to move a short distance, so we are still on our ancestral lands. Others have had to move far away. That is sad.'

Indeed, the Vietnamese authorities have moved some villagers up to 100km away and resettled them among unfamiliar new communities.

About 95,000 people in all are being evicted to clear the area for the construction of a massive 215m-high dam across the Black River near Son La, 340km north-west of Hanoi.

The hydroelectric plant will be South-east Asia's biggest and will generate 10.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, about a sixth of Vietnam's burgeoning energy needs.

Professor Pham Phu, a power expert at Ho Chi Minh City's University of Technology, said: 'Right now, we are importing electricity from China because we have a serious shortage. So, we need to build the Son La dam to satisfy our energy demands.'

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has taken a personal interest in making sure the project starts generating electricity on time in 2012. He has sealed a US$280 million (S$405 million) deal with France's Alstom Hydro to provide the turbines and generators.

Interestingly, unlike similar projects in the region such as the Three Gorges dam in China, Nam Theun 2 in Laos and Bakun in East Malaysia, Son La has evoked little international attention.

Part of the reason is that Vietnam is building it without any outside funding or construction assistance. And doing so with quiet, almost clandestine, efficiency.

Bothersome diplomats and snooping journalists are kept away from the remote river valley that is home to many of Vietnam's colourful ethnic minorities.

The Tai, Hmong, Kho Mu, Giay and Khan who live there have their own languages and cultural values.

Relocating them presented Vietnam with a thankless task that could easily spark global outrage if handled badly - just when a more outward-looking Hanoi wanted support for its bid to play a bigger international role by joining the World Trade Organisation and the United Nations Security Council.

But Vietnam has handled the task with remarkable aplomb.

Already, about 80,000 people have been resettled in a massive, but low-profile operation that has caused surprisingly few incidents.

Mr Nguyen Thai Hung, relocation director for Muong La district, near the dam site, said: 'We still have another 2,000 households to move, and we are trying to encourage them to go peacefully.'

The encouragement is practical: hard cash, new homes and the promise of better roads, schools, water, electricity and health care.

Most villagers concede, often grudgingly, that relocation has improved their living standards.

Many who lived in cramped areas by the river bank now reside in larger communities with better facilities, more convenient transportation and bigger houses.

Naturally, the fact that the first batches to move were largely satisfied had a ripple effect and made others relocate more willingly.

But, of course, there were gripes.

Mr Dieu's Ta Sai villagers nurse grievances over the way bureaucratic mismanagement led to their being moved before their new location was ready.

Even now, they have no running water or electricity. Their children have to travel 25km along a dirt track to school because the promised new road and school have not materialised.

With no public transportation, many children just stay home.

After being resettled on dry uplands where they cannot fish or grow rice, their parents do much the same as they await the day the lake fills up and Ta Sai is again a waterfront village.

In the meantime, they depend on handouts from the government, which promised them 20kg of rice every month for two years.

'Now, they say they can only give us 18kg because the price of rice has risen,' said Mr Dieu. 'So, we are unhappy at these broken promises.'

Resettlement officer Hung understands the concerns. He said: 'Our administrative procedures are cumbersome, and the compensation and relocation policies are not always consistent or transparent.'

Still, there have been nice gestures.

For example, the religious customs of many minorities forbid graves being dug up or submerged under water.

This sensitive predicament was resolved when local officials helped fund a special ritual that involved villagers giving offerings to the spirits of the dead for three days and nights.

So overall, Vietnam has managed the mass relocation better than expected.

Despite understandable complaints, most villagers now look forward to a brighter future.

Mr Dieu said: 'We are all hoping that when the dam is finished and we get water and electricity and a new road, our lives will be better.'

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Cyclone wipes out rice crops in Bangladesh

Business Times 3 Dec 07;

DHAKA - A CYCLONE that killed thousands of people in Bangladesh has destroyed at least 800,000 tonnes of rice in the fields.

This exacerbates a food shortage that the government was already grappling with, a government adviser said.

Cyclone Sidr last month wiped out 553,000ha of crops, causing losses totalling about 20 billion taka (S$420 million), said Mr C. S. Karim, agriculture adviser to Bangladesh's army-backed interim government.

'In the present situation, the country would need to import a total of 1.9 million tonnes of rice,' he added.

Meanwhile, New Delhi will allow Bangladesh to import half a million tonnes of rice from India, a visiting Indian minister said on Saturday, easing an export ban on the staple food.

The announcement by Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee came after neighbouring Bangladesh appealed for international help earlier in the week to prevent a food crisis in the impoverished nation following the Nov 15 storm.

Mr Mukherjee, who was on a one-day tour of cyclone-hit areas, said the 'magnitude of the natural calamity' prompted India to remove the ban on rice exports to Bangladesh.

India, the world's third largest rice exporter, clamped a ban on rice exports two months ago in a bid to reduce soaring domestic prices of the food staple that were causing anger among consumers.

Cyclone Sidr, the strongest since 1991 when another storm killed around 143,000 people along Bangladesh's coasts, came close on the heels of devastating floods from July to September that killed more than 1,000 people and washed away about 1 million tonnes of rice.

Mr Karim said the country would also need to import two million tonnes of wheat to meet the food shortfall.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, REUTERS

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Global warming is pushing edges of tropics towards poles: study

Yahoo News 3 Dec 07;

The tropics appear to have already expanded by at least the same margin as models predict for this century

The greenhouse effect is causing Earth's zone of tropical climate to creep towards the poles, according to a study whose release on Sunday coincided with the eve of a major UN conference on climate change.

The poleward expansion of the tropics will have far-reaching impacts, notably in intensifying water scarcity in the Mediterranean and the US "Sun belt" as well as southern Africa and southern Australia, it warns.

The paper, appearing in a new journal, Nature Geoscience, is an overview of the latest published research into atmospheric systems at the tropics.

For cartographers, the tropical belt is defined quite simply by the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, at latitudes 23.5 degrees north and south of the equator.

For climatologists, though, where the tropics end is fuzzier because of the complexity of a powerful high-altitude wind pattern, known as the Hadley circulation.

These powerful jet streams are what determine precipitation patterns of the tropics, which is characterised by lots of rain in the central part of the belt near the Equator and by dryness at its fringes.

Some years ago, the first credible computer simulations predicted that, as the Earth warmed, the Hadley jet streams and their associated wind and rainfall patterns would move poleward.

Under the most extreme scenario, the tropics were on average predicted to expand by about two degrees latitude, equivalent to around 200 kilometres (120 miles) over the 21st century.

The new paper looks at a batch of recent studies based on five different types of measurement from 1979-2005.

It concludes that this change in the tropical jet streams has already happened -- and the worst-case scenario has already been surpassed.

"Remarkably, the tropics appear to have already expanded -- during only the last few decades of the 20th century -- by at least the same margin as models predict for this century," it says.

"The observed widening appears to have occurred faster than climate models predict in their projections of anthropogenic [man-made] climate change."

The five datasets variously find expansion ranging from two degrees to 4.8 degrees latitude over the 25 years, or 200-480 kms (120-300 miles).

Many worrisome questions arise from these findings, says the paper.

First and foremost is about the accuracy of climate models that drive scientific conclusions about the pace of global warming and, in turn, inform policymakers about how to address the problem.

Also unclear are the mechanisms that have caused the widening of the tropics, says the paper. Possible factors include the ozone hole, warming of the sea's surface and an increase in the tropopause, a boundary layer between the troposphere and the stratosphere.

In any case, a widening of the tropics carries "worldwide implications," according to the study.

"The edges of the tropical belt are the outer boundaries of the sub-tropical dry zones, and their poleward shift could lead to fundamental shifts in ecosystems and in human settlements.

"Shifts in precipitation would have obvious implications for agriculture and water resources and could present serious hardships in marginal areas."

It voices particular concern for semi-arid regions that are at the fringes of the sub-tropical dry zone, including the Mediterranean, the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa and parts of South America.

"A poleward expansion of the tropics is likely to bring even drier conditions to these heavily populated regions, but may bring increase moisture to others," it warns.

The paper is lead-authored by Dian Seidel of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory at Silver Spring, Maryland.

Publication on Sunday came on the eve of a UN conference in Bali, Indonesia aimed at revamping efforts to tackle global warming.

Around 10,000 delegates are expected to attend the 11-day gathering, which is tasked with agreeing on a blueprint for two years of negotiations for a pact that will slash greenhouse-gas emissions from 2012 and beef up support for poor countries that will bear the brunt of climate change.

Expanding tropics could spur storms: study
Deborah Zabarenko, Reuters 3 Dec 07;

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Earth's tropical belt is expanding much faster than expected, and that could bring more storms to the temperate zone and drier weather to parts of the world that are already dry, climate scientists reported on Sunday.

"Remarkably, the tropics appear to have already expanded -- during only the last few decades of the 20th century -- by at least the same margin as models predict for this century," the scientists said in the current edition of Nature Geoscience.

Scientists forecast the tropic belt would spread by about 2 degrees of latitude north and south of the Equator by the end of the 21st century. That amount of tropical expansion has already occurred, and was confirmed by five independent ways of measuring it, the report found.

For mapmakers and astronomers, there is no question about where the tropic zone ends: it is at 23.5 degrees north and south of the Equator at the Tropics of Capricorn and Cancer, boundaries determined by Earth's tilt on its axis. These tropical borders are the furthest point from the Equator where the sun shines directly overhead at the summer solstice.

But climate scientists define the tropic band by what happens on the land, in the water and in the air, and that is what is changing, the study said.

'SERIOUS HARDSHIPS'

Tropical temperatures are warm, and it rains a lot, with little seasonal or day-to-day change. The subtropics, by contrast, are generally dry. If the warm, wet tropical climate is spreading poleward, the dry subtropic climate may head for the poles too.

Those dry subtropical bands could include some of the most heavily populated places on Earth, the scientists said: the Mediterranean, the U.S. Southwest, northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa and parts of South America.

"Shifts in precipitation patterns would have obvious implications for agriculture and water resources and could present serious hardships in marginal areas," the authors wrote.

For those who live in the middle latitudes, like most U.S., European and Asian residents, the change could affect the storm tracks that largely determines weather in these areas, said co-author Dian Seidel of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"Those storm tracks are linked with the position of the jet stream, which is one way we use to delineate the width of the tropics," Seidel said by telephone from NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory outside Washington. "The jet streams are moving poleward, and so, presumably, would the storm tracks."

This poleward migration of storm tracks is in line with predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This worldwide panel of scientists and policymakers is convening in Bali, Indonesia this week to determine how to deal with climate change.

(Editing by Vicki Allen)


Earth's tropics belt expands
Seth Borenstein, Associated Press, Yahoo News 2 Dec 07;

Earth's tropical belt seems to have expanded a couple hundred miles over the past quarter century, which could mean more arid weather for some already dry subtropical regions, new climate research shows.

Geographically, the tropical region is a wide swath around Earth's middle stretching from the Tropic of Cancer, just south of Miami, to the Tropic of Capricorn, which cuts Australia almost in half. It's about one-quarter of the globe and generally thought of as hot, steamy and damp, but it also has areas of brutal desert.

To meteorologists, however, the tropics region is defined by long-term climate and what's happening in the atmosphere. Recent studies show changes that indicate an expansion of the tropical atmosphere.

The newest study, published Sunday in the new scientific journal Nature Geoscience, shows that by using the weather definition, the tropics are expanding toward Earth's poles more than predicted. And that means more dry weather is moving to the edges of the tropics in places like the U.S. Southwest.

Independent teams using four different meteorological measurements found that the tropical atmospheric belt has grown by anywhere between 2 and 4.8 degrees latitude since 1979. That translates to a total north and south expansion of 140 to 330 miles.

One key determination of the tropical belt is called the Hadley circulation, which is essentially prevailing rivers of wind that move vertically as well as horizontally, carrying lots of moisture to rainy areas while drying out arid regions on the edges of the tropics. That wind is circulating over a larger area than a couple decades ago.

But that's not the only type of change meteorologists have found that shows an expansion of the tropics. They've seen more tropical conditions by measuring the amount of ozone in the atmosphere, measuring the depth of the lower atmosphere, and the level of dryness in the atmosphere at the edges of the tropics.

Climate scientists have long predicted a growing tropical belt toward the end of the 21st century because of man-made global warming. But what has happened in the past quarter century is larger and more puzzling than initially predicted, said Dian Seidel, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration lab in Silver Spring, Md. She is the author of the newest study.

"They are big changes," she said. "It's a little puzzling."

She said this expansion may only be temporary, but there's no way of knowing yet.

Seidel said she has not determined the cause of this tropical belt widening. While a leading suspect is global warming, other suspects include depletion in the ozone layer and changes in El Nino, the periodic weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean.

Other climate scientists are split on the meaning of the research because it shows such a dramatic change — beyond climate model predictions. Some scientists, such as Richard Seager at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, say changes in El Nino since the 1970s probably are a big factor and could make it hard to conclude there's a dramatic expansion of the tropical belt.

But climate scientists Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria and Richard Somerville of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography said Seidel's work makes sense and that computer models have consistently been underestimating the ill effects of global warming.

"Every time you look at what the world is doing it's always far more dramatic than what climate models predict," Weaver said.

Both Weaver and Seidel said the big concern is that dry areas on the edge of the tropics — such as the U.S. Southwest, parts of the Mediterranean and southern Australia — could get drier because of this.

"You're not expanding the tropical jungles, what you're expanding is the area of desertification," Weaver said.

Nature Geoscience http://www.nature.com/ngeo

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