Residents flee as mud volcano breaches barrier

Straits Times 5 Jan 08;

PORONG (INDONESIA) - A MUD volcano on Java that forced more than 15,000 people to abandon their homes in 2006 has breached barriers built to contain it, causing further damage.

Residents in Porong, East Java province, fled from their homes in panic late on Thursday when hot, foul-smelling mud began to flow into the area, covering nearby railway tracks and a main road.

'At least 10 vehicles were buried by one-metre- deep mud, including mine,' said local traffic police chief Andi Yudianto.

Porong is about 20km from Surabaya, Indonesia's second-largest city.

Thousands of homes and factories in an area the size of Toa Payoh have been submerged by hot mud from the volcano since it started to erupt in May 2006.

The disaster occurred about 200m from a gas exploration well operated by PT Lapindo Brantas just two days after an earthquake hit the city of Yogyakarta in Central Java.

There has been a dispute over whether the mud volcano was caused by the well drilling or by the earthquake.

The government has tried several schemes to halt the flow, including dropping giant concrete balls into the crater, but the hot mud continues to spurt out.

A dyke, 10m thick and 5m high, has been built to contain the mudflow.

Mr Ahmad Zulkarnain, a spokesman for a government body managing the mudflow, said it had been unable to reinforce the dyke because no compensation agreement has been made with the owner of the land where the defences are situated.

'We had been worrying about this for some time. It is vulnerable, especially during the rainy season,' he said.

The government ordered energy group Lapindo, which many people blame for the disaster, to pay 3.8 trillion rupiah (S$576 million) in compensation to the victims and to cover the damage.

Thousands of victims have staged frequent street protests, complaining of inadequate compensation.

Lapindo and PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk, which has a stake in Lapindo, dispute the idea that the disaster was caused by the drilling and question whether Lapindo alone should shoulder the cost.

REUTERS

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Oil output just can't rise in line with demand: Peak oil theorists

The Guardian, Today Online 5 Jan 08;

The rise and rise of oil prices is renewing interest in the "peak oil" theories which originated in 1956 when geologist M King Hubbert predicted that United States oil production would peak in about 1970, which it did.

While demand has risen sharply in recent years because of the strongest performance of the world economy for decades, oil supply has increased far more slowly, leading to the price we have today.

Some of the price rise has been blamed on speculation, some on the decline of the US dollar, in which oil is priced, but most analysts agree that this oil price shock is demand-led rather than being the result of an interruption to supply, as in 1974 and 1979.

The peak oil theorists argue that production has not increased in line with demand simply because it cannot. Oil reserves are finite. Many of the world's biggest fields are already suffering declining output, and that could accelerate, they argue.

One leading proponent of the theory, the German-based Energy Watch Group, recently argued that global oil output peaked in 2006 and will halve by 2030, rather than rise from the current 85 million barrels per day to 120 million, as conventional projections suggest.

Oil prices hovered between US$10 and US$20 a barrel for many of the 15 years to 1999, then began an upward march that has culminated in the US$100 now being tested.

While conventional wisdom has been that rising prices would bring big rises in production, this has barely happened.

The producers' cartel, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, increased its output by 3 million barrels per day in the early years of this decade but it has not risen since.

Peak oil theorists point to the United Kingdom, where oil production peaked in 1999, at 3.2 million barrels per day but has halved in just eight years. Once oil production peaks, they say, it does not stay steady for decades, it falls quite rapidly.

The current price is a real incentive for producers to pump more oil. The next two or three years will tell us whether global production has peaked.

Maverick trader pushed oil to US$100 level
Straits Times 5 Jan 08;

LONDON - IT WAS a small deal, but with it, a maverick trader pushed oil to US$100 (S$143) a barrel for the first time - and also secured a place for himself in history.

According to the Financial Times, insiders have named the trader who sought the proverbial 15 minutes of fame as Richard Arens, who runs a brokerage called ABS.

The cost to Mr Arens for bragging rights - or, as one oil market newsletter editor put it: 'To tell his grandchildren that he was the first in the world to buy US$100 oil' - was US$600.

He bought 1,000 barrels, the smallest amount permitted, for US$100 on Wednesday, at a time when the prevailing price was $99.53. He sold it immediately for $99.40 at a $600 loss.

Market watchers believe Mr Arens was motivated simply by being the first person to buy at US$100.

His actions have attracted criticism from experts, who say that it risked artificially triggering automatic 'stop orders' placed by others in the event that the price hit US$100, reported Britain's Guardian newspaper.

Mr Arens, who placed the deal on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), was not available for comment.

Analysts say he may have been testing the ceiling of the crude price, but the premium he paid surprised the market.

Nymex said that US crude oil futures traded just once in triple figures on Wednesday.

Mr Stephen Schork, the oil market newsletter editor, told BBC Radio Four's Today programme: 'This could have triggered a massive artificial rally. It creates a doubt that these kind of shenanigans could be commonplace - you begin to question the validity of prices and to ask 'are these markets really working?''

Meanwhile, the transaction was not shown at first on the electronic Globex system, which carries the bulk of crude oil trading, leaving the market unsure about the price level. But Nymex told the Financial Times that 'it is considered a valid trade'.

Yesterday, New York's main contract, light sweet crude oil for delivery in February, was 11 cents higher, at $99.29 a barrel.

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UK government scientist sees few benefits from biofuels

Nigel Hunt, Reuters 4 Jan 08;

OXFORD (Reuters) - Rising production of biofuels has distorted government budgets, helped to drive up food prices and led to deforestation in south-east Asia, the chief scientist of Britain's farm ministry said on Friday.

"The way we are currently producing biofuels is not the way to go," former World Bank chief scientist Robert Watson said, citing the U.S. ethanol program and German support for biodiesel as among the least cost effective.

Watson told the Oxford Farming Conference that biofuels production from sugar cane in Brazil may be one of the only sustainable current methods.

He added that there needed to be aggressive research and development and in five to 10 years time it was possible that new, better technologies could be commercially viable.

Crispin Tickell, director of the Policy Foresight Program at Oxford University's James Martin Institute of Science and Civilization, said U.S. ethanol policy had been "disastrous."

Tickell, whose former posts have included Chef de Cabinet to the President of the European Commission and President of the Royal Geographical Society, said more attention needed to be paid to renewable energy sources such as solar and geothermal.

"Biofuels have a role to play but only as one of a number of technologies," he told the conference.

CLIMATE CHANGE NEGATIVE FOR FARMING

Watson said climate change in the short-term was favorable for UK agriculture, lengthening the growing season but overall would be detrimental for the farming sector.

"A changing climate overall is likely to be negative for the agricultural sector and demands a significant amount of adaptation," he said.

Some have cited genetically modified crops, such as new drought resistant crop varieties, as key to adapting.

"Clearly it has potential but we need to look at it on a case by case basis," Watson said, warning however that some developing countries may be concerned about becoming dependent on seed companies such as U.S.-based Monsanto.

Watson said farmers needed to be paid for environmental services such as capturing carbon or helping produce fresh water supplies.

"Agriculture is more than production," he said.

Tickell agreed, adding that agricultural markets "should operate within a clearly defined framework of public interest."

"We should accept that agriculture is not a business like any other and it is a mistake to regard it as such," he said.

Tickell said there also needed to be greater focus on human diets involving more plants and less meat.

"We need to look at the healthy diet which on the whole we have tended to abandon," he said, noting the current concern about obesity in Britain.

"Greater consumption of meat in India and China has already driven up feed costs," he added.

Watson noted that about 850 million people globally were undernourished and an equal number were obese.

(Editing by Peter Blackburn)

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Electronics makers vie to make machines green

Georgina Prodhan, Reuters 4 jan 08;

LAS VEGAS (Reuters) - With its plethora of gadgets that become outdated almost as soon as they are sold, the consumer electronics industry is an unlikely champion of the environment.

But since information and communications technology is now estimated to cause more carbon pollution than aviation, and the European Union and other regulators are imposing ever stricter rules on toxic substances used in electronics, the industry has little choice but to act.

Ahead of next week's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the biggest trade event of its kind, electronics firms are competing to outdo each other as environmentally friendly.

Alongside a throng of start-ups peddling solar backpacks, efficient wireless power or new ways to recycle, mainstream electronics firms will be touting their achievements in power saving in the face of rocketing oil prices and global warming.

Among those at the show putting pressure on reluctant converts to conform, Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) -- the world's most powerful retailer -- is now asking suppliers to fill out a green practices survey before agreeing to restock products.

Smaller players at CES include GreenPlug with its technology that allows electronics devices to communicate with power sources to raise efficiency, while the NRG Dock offers solar recharging of personal communication devices.

Large-scale industry efforts to limit the polluting effects of the production, use and disposal of electronic goods are currently led by a handful of companies including Japanese electronics group Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and U.S. PC maker Dell Inc (DELL.O: Quote, Profile, Research).

Dell, the biggest supplier of computers to the U.S. market, says it aims to become the world's greenest technology company. It is so far the only PC maker to offer free recycling of its computers without requiring new purchases.

Sony recently established a nationwide U.S. recycling program for consumer electronics, not just for its own products but for all electronics -- although it is not free in all cases.

It also uses renewable energy at many of its offices, including 41 percent of the energy it consumes in Europe.

CES organizers are promising to make this year's event the biggest carbon-neutral trade show there is, buying carbon offsets that will ensure trees are planted to help compensate for emissions related to the 140,000 trade visitors expected.

The Consumer Electronics Association, which will make a "significant proportion" of its tens of millions of dollars in annual revenue from the show, says it expects to spend about $100,000 on environmental offsets this year.

BIODEGRADABLE FORKS NOT THE ANSWER

Green campaigners argue that the industry has a long way to go until it truly starts to limit the damage the electronics inflict on our ecosystem, including largely hidden factors such as flying components around the world for assembly.

"Buying some carbon offsets and biodegradable forks hardly begins to address the environmental impacts of this industry," says Robin Schneider, vice chair of the Electronics Take Back Coalition, a U.S. recycling activist group.

"Unfortunately, most electronic gizmos are loaded with toxins, have short life spans and are not designed for recycling," she added.

Industry analysts agree that longer product lifetimes are a crucial part of any green strategy for consumer electronics, although they go against manufacturers' obvious short-term aims.

Jim Tully, a green IT analyst at research firm Gartner, says powerful telecoms operators, however, do have an interest in slowing down replacement cycles for mobile phones -- which along with TVs are the world's best-selling consumer gadgets.

"Whilst the equipment companies may not be happy about it, the operators want it," he says. "Service providers don't want customers throwing away phones because it opens up an opportunity for customers to switch allegiance."

Until operators win more influence over handset makers, committed green consumers will be largely confined to helping the planet in smaller ways such as using power-management or energy-harvesting devices, a host of which will be shown at CES.

But the market is now ready, some analysts argue, for an explicitly green mainstream consumer electronics device, such as a PC, as awareness has risen and some sectors of the public are now prepared to pay a premium to help save the planet.

"The field is open for a vendor to lead in green products and company attributes. We are watching for products that move well beyond incremental energy efficiency or recyclability," analyst Christopher Mines of research firm Forrester says.

A "bright green" PC, he wrote in a recent note, would be "built-to-last, enabling its user to avoid the quick replacement cycle that manufacturers thrive on and thus keep manufacturing and recycling impacts as low as possible."

(Editing by Phil Berlowitz)

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China to study sources of its pollution

Yahoo News 4 Jan 08;

China will conduct its first national survey of pollution sources in February to help control environmental deterioration in a country with some of the world's most tainted cities, state media said Friday.

The study will identify and collect data on sources of industrial, agricultural and residential pollution for two months, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing the head of the State Environmental Protection Administration, or SEPA.

"The results of the census will not be linked to any punishment or evaluation of the performance of local administrations," said Zhou Shengxian, SEPA's director. Administrations, companies and institutions "should not fear repercussions but should instead guarantee true, credible results."

China's cities have become among the most polluted in the world after more than two decades of rapid economic growth. While the country's communist leaders have repeatedly promised a cleanup, they say they are constrained by the expanding economy and a lack of technology.

Last year, SEPA said China's environmental problems were worsening, with several major rivers and lakes clogged by industrial waste. Air pollution has been a worry for Beijing as it gears up for the Olympic Games in August.

Some believe China has surpassed the U.S. as the world's top emitter of carbon dioxide and other gases that contribute to global warming.

Xinhua did not elaborate on details of the study, which was commissioned by the Cabinet in 2006 after Chinese experts complained about untrustworthy statistics on the sources and extent of pollution.

"Collecting data of various pollution sources will be an important basis for environmental protection," Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan was quoted as saying.

Every province, autonomous region and municipality has set up a census office and will report to a main center staffed by officials from SEPA and the Ministry of Agriculture, Xinhua said.

Data will be reviewed multiple times before being put into a database and will be analyzed in the second half of 2008, Xinhua said. Findings will be examined and approved by mid-2009.

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Palm oil problems in Indonesia and Malaysia

Indonesia: Farmers suffer from booming palm oil
The Jakarta Post 4 Jan 08;

The Indonesian Farmers' Union criticized the government Wednesday for mismanagement in the food crop sector, highlighting the massive displacement of farmers by the expansion of oil palm plantations.

Union chairman Henry Saragih said the palm oil industry had been aggressively expanding plantations to capitalize on a continuing rise in crude palm oil prices expected to result from higher world demand, especially in India and China.

He cited 2006 records of the Agriculture Ministry showing oil palm plantations had grown by more than 200 percent during the last decade -- from 2.7 million hectares in 1998 to 6.1 million hectares in 2006.

He said large-scale private companies, including PT Astra Argo Lestari and PT SMART, controlled 57 percent of plantation areas, while the government and small-scale private growers had the other 43 percent.

"As the oil palm plantations grew larger, the number of large-scale food crop farmers decreased, with many becoming small-scale growers (and even) farm laborers," he said.

Small-scale farmers are defined as having an average of 0.3 hectares under cultivation; farm laborers work for other farmers. Aggregate numbers have increased from 19.9 million families in 1993 to 25.4 million in 2003.

Henry also cited 2007 data indicating that poverty rates stood at 16.58 percent. "Some 63.52 percent of the poor people are villagers who mostly work as small-scale farmers or farm laborers."

He predicted that the conversion of food crop land areas would continue apace in the coming year, owing to the global campaign to replace non-renewable fossil fuel with sustainable bio-fuel.

Such bio-fuel may be derived from agricultural products, including the palm.

"Food crop farmers will continue to see a hard time in the coming years because of the lucrative palm oil industry and the fact the government has apparently sided with the industry by issuing policies that facilitate the expansion of oil palm plantations."

He cited a law on investment endorsed by the government in 2007 and a decree issued by the Agriculture Ministry in 2002; they grant concessions as large as 100,000 hectares for up to 95 years.

Those policies replaced previous regulations with 35 year and 20,000 hectare maximums.

Henry said takeover by big growers could hurt farmer's income and domestic food security as well.

"The government had earlier promised that the country would be able to meet its domestic rice demands in 2005, but the fact is we still have to import rice and the amount keeps rising."

In 2007, Indonesia imported 1.5 million tons of rice, an increase by 78 percent from 840,000 tons in 2006.

Henry said the rice imports had affected the price of domestic rice as foreign brands were cheaper. As a result, farmers suffered losses as they had to lower prices to compete.

"The government must stop the conversion of food crop land and revise its rice import policy to ensure that farmers stand a chance to improve their welfare."

Malaysia: Consumers panic as cooking oil shortage spreads
Straits Times 4 Jan 08;

KUALA LUMPUR - A SHORTAGE of cooking oil has spread to at least seven states in Malaysia, causing panic among consumers, local Malay-language newspapers reported yesterday.

The shortage of palm oil has been affecting residents in the northern and eastern states of peninsular Malaysia for the past week, and Malacca and Johor are the latest to join the list.

The shortage is the result of manufacturers ceasing production temporarily as they prepare for the new year's accounts.

Johor's state enforcement director of domestic trade and consumer affairs Fahmi Kassim said that, based on a report by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, supplies will resume this month.

He also told Utusan Malaysia that excessive panic by consumers had contributed to the shortage.

Checks in other states found empty shelves in supermarkets and grocery shops in Kedah and Malacca.

A shopkeeper in Terengganu said his wholesaler had supplied less stocks than what he had ordered, and they were snapped up in a few hours.

Consumers in Perak, Pahang and Negeri Sembilan also complained of difficulty in getting cooking oil.

In Perlis, consumers were allowed to buy only one or two packets of cooking oil a person, Utusan Malaysia reported.

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High waves and high tides cause disruption and damage in Indonesia

High waves slam ferries, houses in Makassar, Kupang
Andi Hajramurni and Yemris Fointuna, The Jakarta Post 4 Jan 08;

High waves and heavy storms swept through the Makassar gulf Wednesday evening, wrecking a tanker and ferry.

Flooding caused by the high waves and heavy storms had reportedly also inundated more than 250 houses in Biboki Anleu district of Timor Tengah Utara regency in East Nusa Tenggara on Thursday morning.

The ferry used as a laboratory and cafe, which was anchored 200 meters offshore, was hurled onto an embankment at Losari beach.

One of the ferry's crew, Irfan, said the high waves and heavy storms started on Wednesday evening, becoming more intense early Thursday evening when the vessel broke free from its anchor.

"We panicked and thought the ferry might sink. We couldn't do anything at the time."

He said on Thursday afternoon the ferry was hurled onto the beach-- where it attracted the attention of curious passersby. He added he was relieved to find all five crew members survived the disaster.

It was also reported that a PT Semen Bosowa tanker had run aground, about 30 meters from a residential area, in Galangan village, Kaluku Bodoa sub-district, Tallo district, Makassar. Residents panicked as the ship approached.

One resident, Agussalim, said the tanker had been anchored about 500 meters offshore for the past few days. The storm and huge waves had damaged the anchor on Wednesday evening, he said, forcing the tanker inland.

To guard against similar incidents, the residents were evacuated away from beaches.

Residents said they hoped the vessel's owner would remove it soon to prevent further harm.

From East Nusa Tenggara it was reported that high waves and heavy storms, hitting more than 250 houses on Thursday morning, had forced about 1,000 people to evacuate.

The high waves and heavy storms that hit the region also caused flooding of up to one meter.

Head of Biboki Anleu district Amandus Afeanpah said he couldn't yet calculate the financial loss from the disaster.

Deputy regent of Timor Tengah Utara, Raymundus Fernandez, said he had encouraged people, who lived in the affected areas, to evacuate to safer places.

"I asked everyone to stay away from the beach in order to avoid unwanted incidents."

There were no casualties reported from that disaster.

High tides interrupt sea transportation
Jakarta Post 4 Jan 08;

JAKARTA: Six ships that regularly carry passengers from Jakarta to the Thousand Islands regency have been unable to operate for the past three weeks due to high tides.

An official from the Transportation Agency, Mohammad Zakky, said Wednesday the ships would recommence operations when the tides had subsided.

"We hope the tides will subside this week," he said, as quoted by Antara.

He said each ship had the capacity to carry up to 36 passengers per trip.

The head of information at the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency, Tuwamin Mulyono, said tides in the Java Sea may reach up to seven meters before subsiding next week. --JP

Hundreds of Indons flee from high waves
Today Online 4 Jan 08;

KUPANG (Indonesia) — High waves lashed hundreds of homes in eastern Indonesia yesterday, forcing about 1,000 people to flee but causing no casualties, an official said.

"Some 250 houses along the coastline were hit this morning by three-metre high waves, leaving dozens destroyed," a senior official at Biboki Anleu in East Nusa Tenggara province told reporters.

He said there were no reports of casualties so far but ongoing heavy downpours had hampered site checks.

High waves have been lashing the country's eastern islands for the past week.

On Tuesday, two students drowned in a resort area south of Kupang, the capital of East Nusa Tenggara, when a three-metre wave swept to shore, their relatives said.

A day before, a cargo ship sank in rough seas in eastern Indonesia — killing three people and leaving five missing — while the turbulent waters killed two swimmers.

Torrential rains have also inundated the main island of Java in recent days, killing scores of people in landslides and floods.

High seas and wild weather in Indonesia are not unusual from December to February, when the rainy season hits a peak across the world's fourth most populous nation. — AFP

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Ecofashion wins on runway, helps farms

Garance Burke, Associated Press Yahoo News 4 Jan 08;

Analysts caution that until earth-friendly clothes come down in price, only a small group of consumers will think about their carbon footprint before they reach for their wallets. "Most of the world's still looking for cheaper, better, faster,"

In a workshop in the city's Mission District, Ally Beran's team of fashion designers is sprawled out over buttons and spools of thread, hoping to stem global warming by stitching new outfits from thrift store finds. A brown lace applique from a scrap bin could make last year's castoff cashmere pop, Beran muses. Or, she reckons, swatches from a tattered leather jacket could double as chic epaulettes on a high-end used sweater. Designers of so-called sustainable fashion are not only dominating New York catwalks and urban boutique racks this winter, many also are providing farmers with new markets for their crops.

As with the movement for locally harvested food, ecofashion's devotees seek to lower their toll on the earth by buying clothes made of recycled materials and sustainably harvested, homegrown fibers.

This year, American Apparel and yoga-gear retailer prAna will start selling shirts spun with cotton grown in California's Central Valley and sewn just a few hours away, in Southern California, to avoid burning fossil fuels in transporting the materials.

Beran's creations, marketed under the label William Good — an anagram of the company's business partner, thrift store giant Goodwill Industries — are only sold online and in stores near San Francisco, also to reduce their carbon footprint.

Last summer, New York's Rag & Bone hired supermodel Shalom Harlow as the face for its line of filmy "carbon free" T-shirts, which were manufactured domestically in a process that required no greenhouse gas emissions.

For farmer Frank Williams, the new interest in locally grown, organic cotton has meant he's had to learn how to talk about threadcount and women's skirt lengths with the ecologically minded crowd that tours his fields near Fresno.

"These fibers are among the best organic in the world," Williams said as he led a group of fashion executives from China, Sweden and New York through rows of billowy cotton. "With the right diameter, length and strength you can really spin the finest yarns that you want."

Farmers in the United States grow a small portion of the organic cotton used by the apparel industry, which still sources most of its fibers overseas in countries like Turkey where labor and production costs are cheaper. The market is clearly booming, however: The nonprofit Organic Exchange predicts that sales of organic cotton fiber will reach $226 million by 2009, up from about $19 million in 2004.

As more companies seek to build a greener supply chain, American farmers are hoping that will translate into more demand for domestic crops.

The Sustainable Cotton Project, a nonprofit based in Davis, has helped almost two dozen cotton farmers penetrate the fashion industry by promoting California-grown BASIC cotton, a crop that's not quite organic but is farmed using techniques that reduce pesticide usage by as much as 73 percent.

San Diego-based prAna recently snapped up hundreds of pounds of BASIC acala cotton for its "Homegrown T-Shirt," and American Apparel has committed to buying nearly half a million pounds, said Lynda Grose, a sustainable fashion design professor at California College of the Arts who helped broker the deals.

Coral Rose, who spearheaded Wal-Mart's first purchase of organic yoga clothes in 2004 when she was a women's apparel buyer at Sams Club, said once companies start switching to natural fibers, it's only a matter of time before they start thinking about other sustainable design practices. Wal-Mart is now the biggest seller of organic cotton products worldwide.

"It's a total mindset shift at the design level," said Rose, now a consultant based in Fayetteville, Ark. "It holds the designer accountable for their designs and their impacts."

William Good CEO Nick Graham, a veteran designer who founded Joe Boxer in the 1980s, said the idea for his new company came to him as he wandered around a Goodwill store, thinking about all the used clothing that ends up in landfills.

"I thought we could do an organic line, but then I thought that's just more stuff we'd be creating," Graham said. "It's the American way to say we need more growth, but what if we created an economy with everything we've already used once?"

Santa Barbara-based Simple Shoes is promoting that concept as well with its ecoSNEAKS, a line of shoes and boots featuring treads made from recycled car tires.

Still, analysts caution that until earth-friendly clothes come down in price, only a small group of consumers will think about their carbon footprint before they reach for their wallets.

"We've gotten more people aware or interested in ecological fashion, but most of the world's still looking for cheaper, better, faster," said Marshal Cohen, a fashion industry analyst at the NPD Group. "The message will resonate, but it's going to take more time."

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Future scarcities a good investment

Asset manager says bet on future scarcities
Reuters 3 Jan 08;

LONDON (Reuters) - Companies specializing in recycling or renewable energy could be a good investment in coming years as the world's population soars and vital resources become more scarce, Dutch asset manager Robeco said on Thursday.

Over 9 billion people are expected to compete for the globe's resources by 2050, up from a population of around 6.6 billion currently, according to the United Nations.

"Many commodities which have been freely available for a long time, such as land, air and water, will become scarce and expensive," Lex Hoogduin, chief economist at Robeco, said in a note.

This will lead to much higher inflation and thus spell the end of relatively low interest rates, making long-term government bonds a less attractive buy. But it will also open new investment opportunities.

"Equity investors should opt for companies which process goods that are likely to become scarce and for companies which develop technologies designed to make more efficient use of natural resources," Hoogduin said.

That could include recycling firms, those focusing on solar or wind energy, biotech companies producing genetically modified crops and sellers of bottled water.

Producers of the scarce resources, such as mining companies and their suppliers, may also be good investments.

With most of the population growth coming from less developed countries, and with emerging market commodity producers such as Russia able to cash in on the higher prices while importers like the euro zone suffer, the developed Western world will likely see its share of global wealth reduced.

As a result, Robeco suggests that emerging markets may offer attractive opportunities for profit-seekers.

Another demographic trend -- an aging population -- could boost returns from health care companies, whether they offer drugs, diagnostics or healthy lifestyle products.

A richer and bigger population could also lead to an increase in pollution.

"Given the current political support for the necessary reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, the future prospects for carbon dioxide storage and emission rights are also favorable," Hoogduin said.

As the asset management centre of privately-owned Rabobank, Robeco manages about 150 billion euros ($221 billion) in assets worldwide.

(Reporting by Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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Best of our wild blogs: 4 Jan 08

More Stars of Singapore
Brittle, feathery and rudely referred to stars on the singapore celebrates the reefs blog

Celebrating nature, children and writing
Pure poetry on the flying fish friends blog

Greening a diet
on the blooooooooooo blog

Release of the heron chick
on the bird ecology blog

More coral ID at Semakau
on the discovery blog

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How to live, by the dying

Denise Winterman, BBC News Magazine 4 Jan 08;

"We buy things and the more things we have we sort of build a fortress around ourselves and think we can't be got at. But none of these material things really matter, illness demolishes them all."

If you were diagnosed with a terminal illness how would it affect the way you live those remaining days? Dying people often find their life gains a renewed focus that teaches them something special about how to live.

Cheese. It's what Ian John Phelps thought about after being told he had lung cancer and it would kill him. Something as "strange and stupid" as that.

"Living in Dorset we have a whole number of different types of cheese, I just thought I want to try as many different varieties of them as I can," he says.

What would you do if you were told you didn't have long to live? There's a fascinating morbidity about such a question, that many of us will have pondered, safe in the knowledge that it remains hypothetical.

The cliche is to go out and buy a fast car, rack up debts and think little about the consequences. Sampling a rich variety of local dairy produce certainly wasn't uppermost in Mr Phelps' mind before he received his grave prognosis.

In the words of John Ransom, who also has a fatal disease, it gives you a new sense of focus however "awful, hideous and catastrophic" being terminally ill is.

"There are some things about my cancer that are a gift and that may seem really odd to some people," says Mr Ransom, who was 32 when he was first diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma, a cancer that affects the whole lymphatic system. He's now 46.

"It's aroused something in me that's made me more aware. You can do the same things for 20 years, running back and forth to work, or have five years where you process more about your life. I don't know which one is the best, but maybe the latter is a much richer way to live.

Slowing down

"I was walking on the North Yorkshire moors recently, I was high up and the heather was out. I just felt I was on the ceiling of the sky almost. It was an incredibly intense feeling of happiness."

Often the assumption is that people will want to squeeze the maximum out of the limited time they have left. Travel the world, climb a mountain, swim with dolphins.

Take fundraiser Jane Tomlinson, who died of cancer last year aged 43. Despite her illness she showed an indomitable spirit and raised £1.5m for charity. She ran, swam and cycled into the record books, doing marathons and cycling across America.

But happiness is not only about living life to the full, even though the pressure to do so when you don't have much time left can be immense, say those who are in the situation.

Slowing down and enjoying the day-to-day is what gives you true freedom, says Frances Byrnes, a writer from Sheffield, diagnosed at the aged of 32 with advanced ovarian cancer.

"You hear people say that if your days are numbered then everyday has to be superb. It becomes a terrible pressure. I let myself be, I let go of that voice that says all time must be valuably used.

"You let yourself be what you can be that day. Letting go of that... daily check list of achievements is freeing and the world still works without you. I actually felt really alive, I was examining the texture of everything around me."

Smell the roses

A self-confessed "busy bee" before his diagnosis, Mr Phelps, 45, agrees. He says because of his illness he has had to learn to slow down.

"Because I have it gives me the opportunity to look at things in a closer, more detailed way. My eyes are being opened up and lucky me."

A lot of research done on dealing with a terminal illness has shown that people often end up living a happier and much fuller life in the time they have left, says psychoanalyst and counsellor Gladeana McMahon.

"People deal with such news differently, some never come to terms with it. But most go through an acceptance process that includes anger and disbelief, but ultimately leads them to re-evaluate life.

"It gives them a new focus, a new clarity, a new perspective on what is important. I call it smelling the roses."

People get caught up in the petty minutiae of daily life, let it stress them and lose out on what is really important and in front of their faces, she says. Mr Ransom agrees.

"You feel you are in a war zone sometimes, trying to achieve what you think you want with a lot of other people striving for the outcome they want," says the father of two from Stockport.

"At times I have likened my own experience to the salmon swimming back to the breeding ground, struggling up the river. One of the things I've let go of is always wanting to have my own way and always wanting particular outcomes and actually going with the flow of things.

Life's misfortunes

"I've turned myself round and am going with the river. You feel happier than when you are struggling against it the whole time."

Often the pressure to achieve is about getting a certain lifestyle. But while people chase the latest gadgets and goods, they should not lose sight of the fact that these things cannot hold back life's misfortunes, says Mr Ransom.

"We spend a lot of our time trying to protect ourselves, this whole consumer society fits in quite neatly with it I think.

"We buy things and the more things we have we sort of build a fortress around ourselves and think we can't be got at. But none of these material things really matter, illness demolishes them all."

But ultimately no one knows what time they have left. Diagnosed with a terminal illness or not, your life can change in a instant. That's why you should seize the moment, to ask all those questions you have in your head and tell people how you feel, says Mr Pehlps.

"I've been to a load of funerals in my time and so many times people turn round and say if only I'd got the opportunity to ask dad or mum this question, but now I'll never know," he says.

"From the moment you are born and start learning to speak you have the opportunity to ask, so use that. Use it to tell people how you feel about them. I wouldn't wait until you have an illness or anything like that, get on and do it now."

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Singapore-produced cartoon series wins accolades from US media firm

Channel NewsAsia 4 Jan 08;

SINGAPORE : A cartoon series produced by a local company has been named as "one of the greatest products of 2007".

The accolade comes from a prestigious US media organisation known as iParenting.

It picked the 52-episode show called "Taoshu" which is created and produced by Peach Blossom Media.The series is named after a Chinese warrior boy and traces his adventures. The show propagates themes like non-violence, honesty and selflessness.

The series is aimed at children aged three to seven and has been praised for its imaginative plots and attractive visuals.

Since its debut in 2005, the cartoon has been broadcast in television stations in Hong Kong, US, France and the Middle East.

The 'Taoshu: Wild About Wildlife' DVD has been placed on par with Disney's "Mickey Mouse Clubhouse" and Sesame Workshop's "Ready for School" DVDs.

iParenting is dedicated to helping parents make informed choices for their children.
- CNA /ls

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