Solar Industry Faces More Supply, Falling Prices

PlanetArk 17 Jan 08;

LOS ANGELES - The booming solar power sector is about to get squeezed by the age-old laws of supply and demand.

Solar energy companies are scrambling to ramp up production amid skyrocketing interest in renewable energy, but the pendulum is swinging quickly toward oversupply.

That places a few players in the sector, including Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd, First Solar Inc, as well as Q-Cells and SolarWorld AG, in the best position to benefit from the changing dynamics, analysts said.

Torrid investment in 2007 fueled growth at solar companies JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd, Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd, SunPower Corp and others thanks to global warming concerns, soaring fossil fuel prices and government subsidies in Germany, Spain and the United States.

The shares of those companies soared last year, but have been pummeled in the opening weeks of 2008 as concerns about a possible US recession weigh down the broader market.

Still, strong demand for solar panels is expected to continue through this year, although more of the industry's key raw ingredient, polysilicon, is coming to the market, which will lead to more photovoltaic (PV) cells that convert sunlight into electricity. Cells are then packaged together to form the modules that make up solar panels.

By next year, supply could very well outstrip demand.

"Companies are working really hard over the next year-and- a-half to put the steel in the ground and develop on the expansions that they've promised," said Karina Funk, an analyst with Winslow Green Mutual Funds in Boston, which manages about US$580 million.

"The dynamic is definitely going to change once that supply is in the market."

The supply demand shift has investors wondering which solar companies are best prepared to preserve their lofty profit margins by reducing costs as prices fall.


SELECTIVE ON SOLAR

Last week, Banc of America Securities analyst Eric Brown advised clients to be selective about photovoltaic manufacturers over the next year, citing expectations that oncoming capacity would drive down selling prices.

"In spite of strong growth ahead, we are neutral on the PV sector," Brown wrote. "Lower barriers to entry will contribute to lower prices -- and consequently lower margins."

The emergence of dozens of Chinese solar companies and the greater availability of polysilicon, which has been in short supply, are helping drive supply increases, Brown said. He expects module prices to fall 15 percent in 2009, leading to weaker profit margins across the industry.

He said Yingli Green Energy and First Solar were well positioned because of their low cost structures. First Solar, which makes thin-film cells, also benefits because its cells do not rely on polysilicon, he added.

German bank WestLB said Monday that growing supplies of silicon should lead to lower margins for cell, wafer and module producers in 2009. Large, vertically integrated companies such as Q-Cells and SolarWorld were most likely to withstand this development.

ThinkEquity Partners solar industry analyst Jonathan Hoopes said, however, that because so many of the solar module makers are start-ups that are still ramping up production, they have significant opportunities to cut costs in the near term.

"We think there are a lot of costs to come out of this model as they scale up," Hoopes said. "This market is relatively nascent."

One way solar companies have already reduced costs is through deals with companies further up or down the supply stream, Funk said, citing cell manufacturer SunPower's 2006 acquisition of panel installation company PowerLight Corp.

Earlier this month, solar wafer maker LDK Solar Co Ltd made a similar move, taking a 33.5 percent stake in crucible maker Jiangxi Sinoma New Material Co Ltd. Crucibles are used to heat silicon to very high temperatures.

One big unknown is demand. Although the industry is expected to keep expanding at a rapid clip, that growth still depends on the outlook for government incentives and subsidies.

Lehman Brothers analyst Vishal Shah said government incentive programs in Germany and Spain, which have been key to driving growth, would help support prices.

"There is a floor in pricing given the incentives that are in place, even in an oversupply situation," Shah said. "Beyond 2009, the outcome really depends on how the incentives develop in these countries and others." (Editing by Andre Grenon)


Read more!

Kill all wild horses in Australian national park: environmentalists

Reuters 16 Jan 08;

Environmentalists called Wednesday for hundreds of wild horses to be shot dead to prevent a unique Australian national park becoming a "horse paddock," with little room for native species.

Around 1,700 feral horses -- known in Australia as 'brumbies' -- have caused havoc in the Kosciuszko National Park, according to the National Parks Association of New South Wales state.

They are increasing in numbers by as much as 300 a year, the conservation group said, but the state has banned shooting of the animals from helicopters, widely considered the most effective way of controlling them.

The park, located near the country's highest peak Mount Kosciuszko, covers 675,000 hectares (1.67 million acres) and is a UNESCO-recognised biosphere reserve.

It contains the only alpine lake in mainland Australia, as well as plant species found nowhere else in the world and the rare mountain pygmy possum and corroboree frog.

"It is very undisturbed. It is a very intact ecosystem," association official Andrew Cox told AFP. "I don't want to see a park with 7,000 horses in 10 years time. It is going to be quite scary."

Asked if they should be eliminated totally, he added: "That is our ideal goal -- to eradicate the horses."

"They are very possessive. When they pass through you can see."

The association suggests culling more than 1,000 horses in the first year, with most of those left killed in the second year to stop the population growing again through breeding.

It says current plans to deal with the problem by trapping the horses are ineffective, accusing the state national parks authorities of caving in to sentimentalism. The association itself is a non-government body and is not directly involved with the running of the parks.

The area has entered Australian folklore as the location of the Snowy River, which is associated in many Australians' minds with wild horses.

The state National Parks and Wildlife Service admits aerial shooting is an easy option.

But there is a moratorium on the practice after community anger at a botched cull of horses in another of the state's national parks in 2000.


Read more!

South Korean town fights for life after oil spill

Jack Kim, Reuters 16 Jan 08;

TAEAN, South Korea (Reuters) - A month after South Korea's worst oil spill, blackened west coast beaches have been cleaned by more than 1 million volunteers but residents are struggling to pick up shattered lives.

The fishing industry has died and tourism has dried up. Last week, fisherman Lee Young-kwon killed himself by drinking pesticide in despair over losing his oyster farm.

"Why did you have to die when the people who sprayed black oil on your oyster farm are living and breathing," Lee's daughter Nan-sook said at a memorial service this week, where more than 10,000 residents gathered.

Mourners spoke of Lee as a gentle and loving father. They also tried to console each other over livelihoods ruined by the spill and a government response they feel came too slowly and offers too little to help them rebuild.

The coast of the Taean region, about 150 km (95 miles) southwest of Seoul, was covered in crude oil as deep as 10 cm a month ago, when 10,500 metric tons spilled from a Hong Kong-registered tanker that had its hull punctured in a collision with a Samsung Heavy Industries' seabound crane.

A nature preserve was blackened. The air reeked of sulfur. Volunteers tossed dead birds covered in oil in plastic bags. Tar balls washed up ashore, soaking the fine sand on beaches popular with tourists and then fell to the sea floor.

South Koreans responded to their worst oil spill by forming one of the country's biggest volunteer movements to remove the oil and scrub the coast.

DAMAGE TO LAST YEARS

Conservationists said even though the beaches are now mostly clean, the damage from oil in the seabed will last for years, killing fish, marine plants and plankton.

"The damage is still serious even one month later," said Lee Bo-ok, a Johnson & Johnson employee who traveled with her colleagues from Seoul to volunteer, using an absorbent cloth to wipe muck off rocks.

Conspicuously absent from the clean-up efforts on Monday were the residents of Taean as they gathered for the memorial service for Lee, leaving the ports, seafood restaurants and stores eerily quiet.

Anger is mounting among the 70,000 residents as they wait for more government help and an apology from the owners of the vessels involved in the spill.

"Does the government think 300 billion won ($320 million) will solve the problem?" said community leader Kim Jin-mook.

That is the value of low-interest loans the government has offered in addition to the 30 billion won in direct payments being made to affected residents.

Yonhap news agency said, due to red tape, it may take more than a year before any compensation is paid to a population mostly made up of fisherman who live day to day from their catch.

Residents say many will likely be wiped out financially before they receive any payments from the government.

"Samsung as the cause of the disaster must bring Taean back to life," community leader Kim said, in a call for action echoed by thousands present at the service.

Fisherman Chung Nak-chu said: "The ocean is dead so what do we live for now? This was our lifeline for thousands of years that fed our children."

(Additional reporting by Kim Do-gyun and Sim Nara; Editing by Jon Herskovitz and Alex Richardson))


Read more!

Seagrass worth millions of ringgit lie unprotected in Malaysian waters

Food for marine life under threat
Nisha Sabanayagam, New Straits Times 10 Jan 08;

KUALA LUMPUR: Seagrass worth millions of ringgit lie unprotected in Malaysian waters.

The country is sitting on a treasure trove -- seagrass meadows of about 3.15 sq km in Peninsular Malaysia are worth up to RM20 million a year, based on their value as raw material and for nutrient cycling.

"If we lose our seagrass, we don't get seafood," said Juliana Ooi, a Universiti Malaya lecturer at the Department of Geography who will be doing her doctorate in seagrass geography in Australia.

Seagrass provides food for juvenile seafood. Prawns, fish and other seafood feed on seagrass when they are young.

She said the size of the seagrass meadows was vastly underestimated as many places had yet to be surveyed, including areas around Sabah and Sarawak.
The value of the seagrass is also much higher as it plays an important role in food production, climate regulation, genetic resources and recreation. Despite its importance, there has been minimal efforts to conserve the seagrass.

Ooi said the problem was that seagrass grew in prime areas along the coastlines which were likely to be converted to ports, jetties or marinas.

Areas such as the Tanjung Pelepas Port, the Sungai Pulai Estuary and the Merambung Shoals in Johor, where seagrass grows in great abundance, are under threat from development.

Ooi said there were about 1.1 sq km of seagrass in the areas and the vast diversity of the species meant that it provided food to a great number of sea life.

There are only a few scientists in the country doing seagrass research and most of it has been confined to the seagrass' role as a food source for the dugong.


Read more!

Best of our wild blogs: 16 Jan 08


Daily Green Actions: Lunar New Year special
share your ideas for a green celebration on the leafmonkey blog

Reefs in Brief: Corals in the world's busiest port; container shipping is green on the singapore celebrates our reefs blog

Secret Life of the Yellow Bittern
on the bird ecology blog

Recycling food waste in Singapore
on the asia is green blog

Is Environmentalism Compatible with Capitalism?
from the cleantech blog featured on the reuters environment blog

What's so bad about bottled water, anyway?
An empty 1-liter bottle requires over 7 liters of water in its manufacturing process, uses 162 grams of oil, and results in over 100 grams of greenhouse gas emissions or how much an average car emits over half a kilometer. and more gruesome facts on the Ask Pablo blog

Fred’s Footprint: Is shooting polar bears OK?
on New Scientist Environment Blog

China’s Plastic Bag Ban Likely to Change Consumer Habits
on the Worldwatch Institute website


Read more!

UN biodiversity chief Ahmed Djoghlaf to Singapore: Share green expertise

By Arti Mulchand, Straits Times 16 Jan 08;

SINGAPORE has a duty to share what it has learnt about protecting the environment with its rapidly developing neighbours, a top United Nations official said yesterday.

'You have made mistakes but you have repaired them,' said UN biodiversity chief Ahmed Djoghlaf during a tour here.

He said: 'My plea is that this experience...is shared with the world and your neighbours, which are growing.

'You have a moral responsibility to help them avoid the same mistakes.'

Dr Djoghlaf, who is the executive secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), is here to deliver a public lecture on biodiversity and climate change at the Civil Service College at 9am today.

On Monday, he also signed a deal between the CBD and the Philippines-based Asean Centre for Biodiversity. The deal aims to promote environmental protection in the region.

Yesterday, the 54-year-old traded in his jacket for a pair of binoculars and walked around the Sungei Buloh Wetlands Reserve, one of Singapore's best conservation success stories.

The reserve, which was set aside in 1989 after being discovered by a group of avid birdwatchers, is testimony to the need for a cooperative approach to conservation, he said.

He had high praise for the country's ability to marry development and environmentalism.

Dr Djoghlaf said that events such as the eco-friendly World Cities Summit in June, which will be held on the sidelines of the Singapore International Water Week, demonstrated that the country was a 'leader in urban environment issues'.

Singapore's push for conservation is encouraging especially in a rapidly urbanising world that is pushing an increasing number of the world's plants and animal speciesto the brink, he added.

A huge challenge, Dr Djoghlaf said, is posed by the fact that scientists have identified only a fraction of the species on earth. That means mankind does not know how many have already been lost or what else might be at stake.

Some 85 per cent of the world's species live in tropical forests which, by some estimates, are disappearing at a rate of 13 million hectares a year.

What is worse, Dr Djoghlaf added, is that the interdependence between humans, plants and animals is not entirely understood.

He said: 'It is all interconnected...So it's not just about protecting nature. We are talking about protecting life.'


Read more!

National blocks: Why governments can never be the world's green saviours

Bypassing the blockage of nations
Richard Black, BBC News 15 an 08;

Would we not do better with a meaningful, informed and binding mechanism whereby the global citizenry could decide how to parcel out the cake of allowable greenhouse gas emissions in a fair and equitable way, without governments getting in the way?

Solving the world's environmental ills may mean re-thinking the role of nations and national governments, says our environment correspondent Richard Black in this week's Green Room. The current system, he argues, is a recipe for stasis.

Many years ago, I used to spend the odd weekend, and sometimes longer, looking after a pair of sibling dogs.

Neurotic Henry and crazy Max generally got on well, sharing a bed, a walk and a tickle without demur.

Every so often, each would be given a bone as a top, juicy, marrow-rich treat.

On these occasions, another side of their nature would emerge. Rather than enjoying his own bone, each would guard it, standing alert, tail erect, staring fixedly at the other's.

The doggy thoughts almost took on corporeal form. "Has he got a bigger bone than me?" "I'm not starting until he does." "Will he look away so I can get my paws on his?"

The stand-off would sometimes continue for minutes.

This image, framed in the springtime colours of a south London garden, has somewhat surreally surfaced in my mind on several occasions in the last few years, as I have watched politicians attempting to make deals on fishing, endangered species, whaling, and - above all - climate change.

"Are his emissions bigger than mine?" "I'm not signing for 11% unless he signs for 12%." "If I keep him awake for 56 hours straight maybe I can lure him into something stupid." "No way he's getting more cod than I am." And so on, summit after summit, with tails standing defiant.

As they check each other out, carbon emissions soar, species loss runs at an unprecedented rate, freshwater systems dry up and fish stocks disappear; check the recent UN Geo-4 report for the full sorry tale of global decline.

Now imagine environmental protection as a computer game. The novice player, faced with continuing failure, would continue to press the familiar buttons marked "lobby" and "persuade" and "cajole" in an attempt to wring action from the on-screen players.

The smart player would change the rules, and get rid of the dogs.

Structural flaws

In all the organisations designed to solve aspects of global environmental decline, politicians argue our future according to national mandates.

Each government decides what its priorities are, and then goes to a forum like the UN climate change convention, the International Whaling Commission (IWC), or the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species and argues for that national mandate.

I think it is time to ask whether this system is really in the best interests of planet Earth or its people.

I think the problem may not be, as it is often painted, that the politicians we have are failing; but that the very system of trying to solve global environmental problems through national governments is flawed, and likely to continue failing.

The issues begin with the positions that government representatives adopt in these negotiations; because, perhaps bizarrely, there is nothing to force them to reflect the will of their peoples.

Polls show, for example, that the US public wants its government to be more proactive on global warming than the current administration has been willing to be; but the administration has no obligation to act on those expressions of opinion.

In other cases, we do not know, and have no way of knowing, the will of various national publics; what, then, determines how the country casts its vote?

In some environmental treaty organisations - the IWC is a prime example - a nation with no real interest in the subject will vote according to a national interest defined by political favours, or political pressure, from other countries.

Even if delegations reflected absolutely the wills of their peoples, you would still have a situation in which global citizens varied hugely in their power to determine the outcome, simply because different countries vary hugely in their sizes of population.

China's population tops 1.5 billion, that of St Kitts and Nevis numbers less than 50,000; yet each country casts a single vote.

That means that a citizen of St Kitts and Nevis would have 27,000 times the influence of a Chinese person - even on issues such as climate change that are likely to affect every global citizen to a greater or lesser degree.

As a white-collar London wage-earner, my life has more in common with a Sydney teacher or a Rome accountant than a Shetlands crofter; yet the crofter and I must have one government speaking for both of us on global issues like climate change - and for the Manchester dancer, the Penzance policeman and the Aberystwyth plasterer.

Would we not do better with a meaningful, informed and binding mechanism whereby the global citizenry could decide how to parcel out the cake of allowable greenhouse gas emissions in a fair and equitable way, without governments getting in the way?

Should there not be some way for European consumers of African crops to resolve issues of income, aircraft emissions, and water and pesticide use directly with producing communities?

Should people not be able to rein in polluters wherever they are, without companies being able to shelter behind different legal systems or threaten to take their jobs to a different country?

What logic now?

When the primary threats to human health and livelihoods came through wars and invasions, basing the global power system around nation states had a logic to it.

But you have to ask if it still has any logic when, as Tony Blair among others has argued, environmental concerns may be the biggest long-term threats to our civilisation.

Rising seas will not stop at borders, nor crops magically continue to grow within countries that have cast their votes a certain way in the UN climate convention.

The atmosphere does not care whether a carbon dioxide molecule comes from Warsaw or Wellington or Ouagadougou; tuna stocks are affected no differently if ravaged by Libyan or French or Chinese ships.

You can argue that the power of the nation state should be sacrosanct. But then you have to explain why countries from Switzerland to Brazil, from Russia to India, from the US to Germany find it necessary to break themselves down into still smaller units of states, cantons and republics, with legal rights and responsibilities devolved.

You also have to explain why most of modern Europe has chosen to pass power up to a larger unit, the EU; and why national governments have ceded substantial decision-making rights on business and trade to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

In reality, we treat the nations we have like old monuments in a busy city; we tend them, nurture them, issue protection orders - until they get in the way of progress, when we clear the obstruction and get on with our lives.

Question time

What a new system of global environmental decision-making not based on nation states would look like, I don't know.

And before anyone hits the comments form at the bottom of the page to say this is just the sort of leftist, neo-socialist, anti-libertarian, collectivist rubbish they would expect from a BBC environment correspondent, I want to emphasise that I am certainly not advocating some kind of global government; if anything, recent history tells us that people want to live in smaller self-determining units rather than see power agglomerate at some remote and amorphous centre.

But just in case this humble journalist's argument finds any favour at all in a corridor possessing a tiny amount of power and influence - a major NGO, for example, or a government frustrated at glacial progress on environmental issues - here is an idea of where to start.

Stage a global referendum on climate change. It doesn't matter who organises it; maybe Unep could do it, or the World Bank, or perhaps one of the major business groups with an interest in climate change could get together with one of the giant NGOs. It doesn't really matter, so long as it is above board and seen to be so.

Ask what kind of action people want; what global temperature rise they are prepared to contemplate, what kind of global emissions cuts they would back, how the carbon dioxide quotas should be shared out.

Even before that, ask them whether they believe man-made climate change is real, and if they want to do anything about it at all.

The answers would form the basis of a real, genuine global political mandate, direct from the people. The job of governments would become to reflect the global will, and they would have a very hard time if they did not.

This exercise could be followed up by similar referenda on global fisheries, on pollution, on genetically-modified foods. They could be supplemented by international citizens' juries, using the internet to connect jurors with each other, and with expert witnesses, across the world.

It might achieve nothing; we might find that self-interest and business-as-usual triumph. We might find that people are not convinced there are multiple global environmental crises, in which case, fine - at least inaction will be the citizens' choice.

My suspicion, though, is that once people engage with the issues as citizens of the only planet we have, global interests rather than national interests will surface.

I also suspect that exercises like this would begin to show us how to construct a better system of solving global environmental problems than relying on governments constrained by stultifying sets of national priorities.

As Geo-4 bears witness, one bone for each national dog is simply not working. It is surely time to ask whether a different way of ordering our affairs can bring sense to the global menagerie.

Richard Black is an environment correspondent for BBC News

The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website


Read more!

Enough whales for watching and eating

Minoru Morimoto
Sydney Morning Herald 16 Jan 08;

The International Whaling Commission passed a global moratorium on commercial whaling in 1982, without any scientific justification and without recommendation by its scientific committee. Since then, differing opinions have become entrenched as polarised rhetoric. Together with a lack of good faith in negotiations, this raises serious questions about the commission's continued institutional legitimacy and whether it has a future.

The whaling convention is not - nor has it ever been - about protecting all whales irrespective of how abundant they are. When it was agreed in 1946, it was about the proper management of the whaling industry by regulating catch quotas so that whale stocks would not be diminished. That Australia was a whaling country when it signed the convention but subsequently changed its position to anti-whaling in the 1970s does not change the convention.

Australia has sacrificed the principles of science-based management and sustainable use that are the world standard (and which Australia uses in other international forums and for the management of its own wildlife) as a political expediency to satisfy the interests of non-government organisations. Australia's intransigence and continued lobbying of other members of the International Whaling Commission to resolutely oppose any return to sustainable commercial whaling - and research whaling - has helped to bring the commission to the brink of collapse. Australia's hypocritical behaviour has been one of the causes of Japan's desire to form an alternative whaling organisation through which appropriate management of whale resources could be pursued.

Furthermore, the suggestion of Australia's Foreign Minister, Stephen Smith, and Environment Minister, Peter Garrett, that somehow Japan's whale research violates international law is without foundation. Article VIII of the whaling convention unequivocally provides the right to kill whales for research purposes.

Japan's research is of vital importance. Australia has no intention at the present time to resume commercial whaling so it has no need for the kind of scientific data needed for a sustainable management regime. However, since this is the purpose of Japan's research there are some kinds of indispensable data that simply cannot be obtained by non-lethal means.

As a result of Japan's research program, we now know more about the status of whale stocks and whale biology than at any time in history and this knowledge increases each year.

There are many countries in the world today that hunt or use marine mammals, such as whales, dolphins, seals and dugong, for food. They include Canada, Greenland, Indonesia, Korea, Norway, Iceland, Russia, Japan, the United States and Australia. Australia's indigenous people hunt dugong in Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Whaling will continue around the world and Australia has a choice: participate in a calm and rational manner in discussions to manage whale resources within the commission or be left out of a new organisation that will manage whaling in a sustainable, science-based manner. Australia can play an important role in making sure the commission maintains a credible future. It has an opportunity to contribute constructively at a meeting in March. Unfortunately, as Japan's commissioner to the commission, I am concerned that Australia's continuous loud reiteration of its opposition to any form of commercial whaling and its "stepped-up" measures to end Japan's research whaling, including threats of legal action, do not bode well.

In a letter dated October 26 last year, the commission's chairman, Dr William Hogarth of the United States, noted that "doing nothing may lead to the demise of the organisation which would serve neither the interests of whale conservation or management". Is that what Australia wants?

It is time for some common sense to be brought into the debate. Many whale stocks in the world today are abundant and commercial whaling can be managed sustainably. To suggest that forests, fisheries and other natural living resources are able to be commercially managed but not whales makes no sense. To suggest there must be one (whale watching) to the exclusion of the other (whaling) is also a fallacy. There are enough whales for both those that want to watch them and those who want to eat them.

I fully respect the right of Australians to oppose whaling for some "cuddly" reasons, but this does not give them the right to coerce others to end a perfectly legal and culturally significant activity that poses no threat to the species concerned.

Minoru Morimoto is Japan's commissioner to the International Whaling Commission and director-general of the Institute of Cetacean Research in Tokyo.


Read more!

Scientists sound alarm over Crown-of-Thorns starfish threat in Indonesia, Coral Triangle

Yahoo News 16 Jan 08;

The predatory crown of thorns starfish is threatening Indonesia's portion of the "coral triangle," the richest area of coral reef biodiversity on the planet, scientists warned Tuesday.

The starfish have been discovered in large numbers by researchers from the Wildlife Conservation Society and the Australian-based ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, who surveyed reefs around Halmahera in Indonesia's Maluku Islands, a press release said.

The triangle lies between Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands and contains more than half the world's reefs, considered building blocks for marine life.

More than 600 species of coral -- 76 percent of those known -- and more than 3,000 plant and fish species live in the triangle's waters.

Scientists said they feared the growth in numbers of the starfish was caused by poor water quality and could be an early warning of widespread reef decline.

"We witnessed a number of active outbreaks of this coral predator. There was little to suggest that the reefs have been much affected by climate change as yet. The threats appear far more localised," said Andrew Baird from the Centre of Excellence in the statement.

The starfish feeds on coral by spreading its stomach over them and using digestive enzymes to liquify tissue.

Researchers also saw evidence of blast-fishing which had occurred following communal violence in recent years.

"The good news is that the reef fish assemblages are still in very good shape," said the Wildlife Conservation Society's Tasrif Kartawijaya. "So these reefs have the capacity to recover if we can address the current threats."

The Coral Triangle Initiative announced by six regional governments at last year's climate change conference in Bali "offers hope for the reefs in the region," the researchers said.

They said however that the role of research under the initiative, which they see as crucial in working out how to respond to threats on the reef, should be made clearer.

The initiative aims to establish a network of protected marine zones, to decrease wear and tear on the reefs caused by the fishing industry and to promote eco-tourism.

Marine resources in the coral triangle provide a living for 120 million people and one-third of the world's tuna catches come from the area.

Starfish Outbreak Threatens 'corals Triangle' Off Indonesia; 'We Witnessed A Number Of Active Outbreaks'
Underwatertimes.com News Service 14 Jan 08

New York, New York (Jan 14, 2008 18:06 EST) Outbreaks of the notorious crown of thorns starfish now threaten the “coral triangle,” the richest center of coral reef biodiversity on Earth, according to recent surveys by the Bronx Zoo-based Wildlife Conservation Society and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies.

The starfish – a predator that feeds on corals by spreading its stomach over them and using digestive enzymes to liquefy tissue – were discovered in large numbers by the researchers in reefs in Halmahera, Indonesia, at the heart of the Coral Triangle, which lies between Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. It is considered the genetic fountainhead for coral diversity found on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, Ningaloo and other reefs in the region.

Scientists fear the outbreak is caused by poor water quality and could be an early warning of widespread reef decline.

Recent surveys of Halmahera by the Wildlife Conservation Society and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies confirmed that while Halmahera’s reefs are still 30-50 percent richer than nearby reefs, some areas were almost completely destroyed.

“The main cause of damage to the corals was the Crown of Thorns Starfish,” Dr. Andrew Baird of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and James Cook University. “We witnessed a number of active outbreaks of this coral predator. There was little to suggest that the reefs have been much affected by climate change as yet: the threats appear far more localized.”

The team also saw first-hand evidence of recent blast-fishing, an extremely destructive fishing practice that uses explosives. According to locals this accompanied a break down of law and order following communal violence in 2000-2003. During the same time many reef lagoons were mined of their corals for use in construction, an activity encouraged by the Indonesian military.

“This is clearly a complex human environment and effective management of the marine resources must address the needs of communities. It will also be vitally important to understand the causes of conflict among communities and address them,” says Dr Stuart Campbell, Program Leader for the Wildlife Conservation Society’s’ Marine Program in Indonesia.

The researchers pointed out that there were still healthy populations of certain species – and still time to reverse the damage.

“The good news is that the reef fish assemblages are still in very good shape” said Tasrif Kartawijaya from WCS-IP. “We saw Napoleon wrasse and bumphead parrot fish at almost every site. So these reefs have the capacity to recover if we can address the current threats.”

The Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI) announced by six regional governments at the Bali Climate Change Conference recently offers hope for the reefs in the region, the researchers say. However, there are few details of how it will work and no mention of the fundamental role of research in the conservation program.

“We are disappointed research is yet to be fully considered in the CTI. The success of large marine parks, like the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, is largely due to the primary role of science plays in understanding what’s going on, so managers can make good decisions,” said Dr Baird.

“It isn’t enough just to document the diversity of the region. Large scale research is required to understand the Coral Triangle ecosystems and work out how best to respond to threats such as poor water quality and overexploitation,” Dr Campbell added.


Read more!

Lifestyle changes can curb climate change: IPCC chief

Marlowe Hood, Yahoo News 15 Jan 08;

Don't eat meat, ride a bike, and be a frugal shopper -- that's how you can help brake global warming, the head of the United Nation's Nobel Prize-winning scientific panel on climate change said Tuesday.

The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued last year, highlights "the importance of lifestyle changes," said Rajendra Pachauri at a press conference in Paris.

"This is something that the IPCC was afraid to say earlier, but now we have said it."

A vegetarian, the Indian economist made a plea for people around the world to tame their carnivorous impulses.

"Please eat less meat -- meat is a very carbon intensive commodity," he said, adding that consuming large quantities was also bad for one's health.

Studies have shown that producing one kilo (2.2 pounds) of meat causes the emissions equivalent of 36.4 kilos of carbon dioxide.

In addition, raising and transporting that slab of beef, lamb or pork requires the same amount of energy as lighting a 100-watt bulb for nearly three weeks.

In listing ways that individuals can contribute to the fight against global warming, Pachauri praised the system of communal, subscriber-access bikes in Paris and other French cities as a "wonderful development."

"Instead of jumping in a car to go 500 meters, if we use a bike or walk it will make an enormous difference," he told journalists at a press conference.

Another lifestyle change that can help, he continued, was not buying things "simply because they are available." He urged consumers to only purchase what they really need.

Since the Nobel was awarded in October to the IPCC and the former US vice president Al Gore, Pachauri has criss-crossed the globe sounding the alarm on the dangers of global warming.

"The picture is quite grim -- if the human race does not do anything, climate change will have serious impacts," he warned Tuesday.

At the same time, however, he said he was encouraged by the outcome of UN-brokered climate change negotiations in Bali last month, and by the prospect of a new administration in Washington.

"The final statement clearly mentions deep cuts in emissions in greenhouse gases. I don't think people can run away from that terminology," he said.

The Bali meeting set the framework for a global agreement on how to reduce the output of carbon dioxide and other gases generated by human activity that are driving climate change.

Pachauri also sees cause for optimism in the fact that, for the first time since the world's nations began meeting over the issue of global warming in 1994, "nobody questioned the findings of the IPCC."

"The science has clearly become the basis for action on climate change," he said.

In 2007, the IPCC issued a massive report the size of three phone books on the reality and risks of climate change, its 4th assessment in 18 years.

Pachauri said it was too late for Washington to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the sole international treaty mandating cuts in CO2 emissions.

The United States is the only industrialised country not to have made such commitments.

But he remained hopeful the US -- under a new administration -- would be a "core signatory" of any new agreement.

"With the change that is taking place politically in the US, the chances of that happening are certainly much better than was the case a few months ago," he said.

At 67, Pachauri said he has not yet decided whether to take on a second five-year mandate as IPCC head. Elections take place in September.

On the one hand, he said, the experience he has acquired would serve him well.

But the advantage of retiring, he said with a smile, is that his carbon footprint -- the amount of C02 emissions generated by all this travels -- would be greatly reduced.


Read more!

The myth of energy independence

The idea of the US being independent of the US$5t-per-year energy business is ludicrous
Robert Bryce, Business Times 16 Jan 08;

WITH oil prices still flirting with US$100 a barrel, everyone in the US is talking about the need for 'energy independence'. Late last year, President Bush signed the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007; Senator John McCain declared, 'We need energy independence'; and Senator Barack Obama called for 'serious leadership to get us started down the path of energy independence'.

This may all be good politics. But the idea that the United States, the world's single largest energy consumer, can be independent of the US$5 trillion-per-year energy business - the world's single biggest industry - is ludicrous.

The push for energy independence is based on false premises. Here are a few of the most pernicious.

1. Energy independence will reduce or eliminate terrorism.

In a speech last year, former CIA director James Woolsey told American motorists: 'The next time you pull into a gas station to fill your car with gas, bend down a little and take a glance in the side-door mirror. What you will see is a contributor to terrorism against the United States.' Mr Woolsey is known as a conservative, but plenty of liberals also eagerly adopted the mantra that America's foreign oil purchases are funding terrorism.

But the hype doesn't match reality. Remember, the two largest suppliers of crude to the US market are Canada and Mexico - neither exactly known as a belligerent terrorist haven. Moreover, terrorism is an ancient tactic that predates the oil era.

It does not depend on petrodollars. And even small amounts of money can underwrite spectacular plots; as the 9/11 Commission Report noted: 'The 9/11 plotters eventually spent somewhere between US$400,000 and US$500,000 to plan and conduct their attack.'

GI Wilson, a retired Marine Corps colonel who has fought in Iraq and written extensively on terrorism and asymmetric warfare, calls the conflation of oil and terrorism a 'contrivance'. Support for terrorism 'doesn't come from oil', he says. 'It comes from drugs, crime, human trafficking and the weapons trade.'

2. A big push for alternative fuels will break America's oil addiction.

The new energy bill requires that the country produce 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. That sounds like a lot, but the United States uses more than 320 billion gallons of oil per year, of which nearly 200 billion gallons are imported.

So biofuels alone cannot wean the United States off oil. Let's say the country converted all the soybeans grown by American farmers into biodiesel; that would provide only about 1.5 per cent of total annual US oil needs. If the entire US corn crop was devoted to producing ethanol, it would supply only about 6 per cent of US oil needs.

What about cellulosic ethanol, the much-hyped biofuel that can be produced from grass, wood and other plant sources? Its commercial viability is a bit like the tooth fairy: Many believe in it, but no one ever actually sees it. Even with heavy federal subsidies, it took 13 years before the corn-ethanol sector was able to produce one billion gallons of fuel per year. Two and a half decades elapsed before annual corn-ethanol production reached five billion gallons, as it did in 2006. But now the US Congress is demanding that the cellulosic-ethanol business magically produce many times that volume of fuel in just 15 years. It won't happen.

3. Energy independence will let America choke off the flow of money to nasty countries.

Fans of energy independence argue that if the United States stops buying foreign energy, it will deny funds to petro-states such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. But the world marketplace doesn't work like that. Oil is a global commodity. Its price is set globally, not locally. Oil buyers are always seeking the lowest-cost supplier. So any Saudi crude being loaded at the Red Sea port of Yanbu that doesn't get purchased by a refinery in Corpus Christi or Houston will instead wind up in Singapore or Shanghai.

Reforms in Muslim

world 4. Energy independence will mean reform in the Muslim world.

The most vocal proponent is New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, who argues that the United States should build 'a wall of energy independence' around itself and thereby lower global oil prices: 'Shrink the oil revenue and they will have to open up their economies and their schools and liberate their women so that their people can compete. It is that simple.' When the petro-states are effectively bankrupt, Mr Friedman argues, we'll see 'political and economic reform from Algeria to Iran'.

If only it were that easy. Between about 1986 and 2000, oil prices generally stayed below US$20 per barrel; by the end of 1998, they were as low as US$11 per barrel. As Alan Reynolds pointed out in May 2005 in the conservative National Review Online, this prolonged period of 'cheap oil did nothing to promote economic or political liberty in Algeria, Iran, or anywhere else; this theory has been tested - and it failed completely'.

5. Energy independence will mean a more secure US energy supply.

Think back to 2005: After hurricanes ravaged the Gulf Coast, chewing up refineries as they went, several southeastern US cities were hit with petrol shortages. Thankfully, they were short-lived.

The reason? Imported petrol, from refineries in Venezuela, the Netherlands and elsewhere. Throughout the first nine months of 2005, the United States imported about one million barrels of petrol per day.

By mid-October 2005, just six weeks after Hurricane Katrina, those imports soared to 1.5 million barrels per day.

So America is woven in with the rest of the world - and going to stay that way. Today, in addition to petrol imports, the United States is buying crude oil from Angola, jet fuel from South Korea, natural gas from Trinidad, coal from Colombia and uranium from Australia. Those imports show that the global energy market is just that: global.

Anyone who argues that the United States will be more secure by going it alone on energy hasn't done the homework.

Bryce, a fellow at the Institute for Energy Research, is author of the forthcoming 'Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of 'Energy Independence'


Read more!

Singapore and Chikungunya fever

Chikungunya what?
Besides dengue, Aedes mosquitoes may cause this viral fever as well
Alicia Wong, Today Online 16 Jan 08;

YOU'VE heard of dengue fever and malaria — but what of chikungunya fever?

About two years ago, there was a massive viral outbreak in India and islands in the Indian Ocean, in which victims experienced fever, headaches and nausea, among other symptoms.

They were suffering from chikungunya fever, which is transmitted by the Aedes mosquito.

And since many travellers come to Singapore — where the mosquito is more dreaded for carrying the dengue virus — there is a need to be prepared for a similar outbreak here or in the region, said Dr Lisa Ng.

The senior scientist at the Singapore Immunology Network (SIgN) is studying the chikungunya virus together with the National Environment Agency's (NEA) Environmental Health Institute and the Ministry of Health (MOH).

This collaboration is part of a programme that focuses on the threat posed by emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, such as malaria and tuberculosis.

While both the NEA and MOH will focus on surveillance of chikungunya fever, SIgN will seek to "understand how it progresses and how humans respond to the disease", said Dr Ng. She aims to improve current methods of identifying the virus and find a vaccine.

The NEA said its institute's role in the research would involve finding an antibody for the chikungunya virus. The aim is also to develop a non-intrusive saliva test, it added.

Eventually, overseas universities and agencies may be invited to join the research, Dr Ng told Today after yesterday's official inauguration of SIgN and the launch of the Singapore Society of Immunology.

Minister of State for Trade and Industry S Iswaran said the network — established by the Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*Star) to develop immunology research in Singapore — would focus on three research programmes.

SIgN researchers will also collaborate with the National Cancer Centre to harness the immune system for combating and curing cancer, as well as work with health institutions to study the genes and conditions that lead to immunity disorders. The network will also look at system immunology, or the functions of the immune system as a whole.

Mr Iswaran said that other than its "critical role" in finding new cures and vaccines, immunology will also "contribute to Singapore's economic growth by attracting interest and investment from the biopharmaceutical industry".

The global vaccine market, currently worth US$9 billion ($13 billion), is estimated to grow to as much as US$42 billion by 2015 and the cancer vaccine market will grow from US$481 million to more than US$8 billion by 2012, he said.


Read more!