14 Things That Would Make Life Better

LiveScience Yahoo News 20 Feb 08;

At the top of many personal wish lists you might find a new car or a Caribbean vacation. But scientists have compiled a global wish list of 14 things that would make life better for everyone.

A committee of scientists and engineers gathered by the National Science Foundation met several times over the last year to compile a list of engineering challenges that, if met, would improve how we live. Today they announced their final choices.

"We chose engineering challenges that we feel can, through creativity and commitment, be realistically met, most of them early in this century," said committee chair and former U.S. Secretary of Defense William J. Perry. "Some can be, and should be, achieved as soon as possible."

In no particular order, the resulting wish list is:

Make solar energy affordable
Provide energy from fusion
Develop carbon sequestration methods
Manage the nitrogen cycle
Provide access to clean water
Restore and improve urban infrastructure
Advance health informatics
Engineer better medicines
Reverse-engineer the brain
Prevent nuclear terror
Secure cyberspace
Enhance virtual reality
Advance personalized learning
Engineer the tools for scientific discovery

The committee decided not to rank the challenges. The public can vote on which one they think is most important and leave comments at the project Web site, http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/.

The final choices fall into four themes that the panel thinks are essential for humanity to flourish - sustainability, health, reducing vulnerability and joy of living. The committee did not try to include every important challenge, or endorse particular approaches to meeting the goals it named. The goal, said the panel, was not to predict the future, but to identify what needs to be done to make the future better.

"Tremendous advances in quality of life have come from improved technology in areas such as farming and manufacturing," said committee member and Google co-founder Larry Page. "If we focus our effort on the important grand challenges of our age, we can hugely improve the future."

The committee included such experts as geneticist J. Craig Venter, futurist Raymond Kurzweil, Nobel laureate Mario Mol'na, Dean Kamen, inventor of the Segway, as well as a variety of international scientists and engineers.

Through an interactive Web site, the effort received worldwide input from prominent engineers and scientists, as well as from the general public, over a one-year period. The panel's conclusions were reviewed by more than 50 subject-matter experts.

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Shell says cheap renewable energy still far off

Mark Trevelyan, Reuters 21 Feb 08;

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The world faces a doubling of energy demand by 2050 but renewable sources are still too expensive and will take decades to make a big impact, Royal Dutch Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer said on Thursday.

In a speech on "Shell scenarios for the 21st century," van der Veer said one of the three hard truths facing the world was a big rise in demand as the global population rose from around six billion to nine billion by mid-century.

He told the EastWest Institute think-tank in Brussels that Shell saw "about 50 percent more demand for energy in the world in the coming 25 years, and a doubling of energy (demand) by 2050."

The second hard truth was that most renewable energy sources were still far too expensive, even compared with higher prices for oil, gas and coal.

"Renewables are still too expensive. They will come, I'm not self-serving, I'm not defensive but it will take a very long time" either to achieve the technological breakthroughs required or to build many more nuclear power stations, van der Veer said.

"You see that we have a lot of tensions. The world demands more energy," he added. "Renewables may come to a solution but it will take decades before it is big."

The third truth was that the reserves of oil and gas that were easily accessible and close to the markets where they were required, were depleting. Extracting new supplies would require much larger investments per unit than in the past.

SELF-INTEREST OR COOPERATION?

Van der Veer said Shell saw two broad scenarios: a scramble in which countries "fight for themselves" on energy policy and set their own rules with minimal cooperation, or a "blueprint scenario," where governments cooperated to create large markets with common standards.

In the first, much time would be lost on making inroads into cutting carbon emissions. The second would be much more favorable to pricing C02 in a consistent way.

"As a company, we think it is much better that the blueprint scenario will happen," van der Veer said.

"There's still a lot of confusion about the role of governments and the role of companies," he added, citing the controversial development of oil sands in Canada.

"If it is open, I fail to see why we should not do that," van der Veer said.

Canadian oil sands mining projects are seen as a key source of North American energy supply for decades to come, but environmental groups have criticized their impact on water use, carbon emissions, wildlife and health.

"If the Canadian government says 'we do not open oil sands', then I don't think that the world will use less energy," van der Veer said.

"I think energy demand will stay the same, so the right question to ask is: if the Canadian government doesn't open oil sands for exploitation, what will be the balance of fuel? I give you my modest opinion, I think it is either coal or nuclear, and you make the choice."

Oil sands are a mix of sand or clay, water, and extremely heavy crude oil. The oil is difficult and costly to extract and is only viable when the oil price is high.

Canada's oil sands are the target of more than $100 billion of investment as the world's oil industry aims to cash in on the need to feed growing demand for secure oil supplies, especially in the United States.

Mined oil sands from Shell, Syncrude Canada Ltd. and Suncor Energy Inc, are processed into about 800,000 barrels of refinery-ready light crude a day, which is roughly 30 percent of the country's overall oil output.

Output is expected to triple by the middle of the next decade.

(editing by Barbara Lewis)

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Discarded fishing line is killing birds

Group cleaning up monofilament to make mangroves safe
Kevin Lollar news-press.com 20 Feb 08;

An immature brown pelican dangled grotesquely Wednesday from the mangroves of a rookery island in Estero Bay.

Death by discarded fishing line: The treble hook of a lure dug into the bird’s right leg as several yards of monofilament line wrapped around the bloody limb and secured the bird to the mangrove branches.

“This one’s fresh,” said Heather Stafford, program manager of the Estero Bay and Charlotte Harbor Aquatic Preserves. “It might have just happened — last night or today.

“It makes you mad. I don’t know if people realize that birds can be hung up and killed this way.”

Along with Stafford, environmental specialist Cheryl Parrott of the Estero Bay Aquatic Preserve, and volunteer Pam Jones-Morton of Estero and 11 other volunteers in two other boats spent the day pulling fishing line, hooks, lures and trash from rookery islands in preparation for the upcoming nesting season.

The problem with fishing line in the environment is simple: Fishermen trying to cast near the mangroves get hung up in the trees and, instead of moving their boats to retrieve their gear, they break the line, leaving long strands hanging from the branches or prop roots.

Birds often become entangled in the line and end up hanging from the trees, where they die of starvation, dehydration or strangulation.

Over the course of five hours Wednesday, Stafford, Parrott and Jones-Morton cleaned up six islands and found three other dead and entangled birds, all badly decomposed: an immature little blue heron, a great blue heron and what was probably a snowy egret.

“We’re cleaning up these islands so we won’t find birds caught in monofilament,” Parrot said. “We want to give them a safe place to nest and have the highest nesting success rates possible.”

Discarded fishing line also can entangle and kill dolphins, sea turtles and manatees.

Monofilament, the most common kind of fishing line, can take up to 600 years to decompose.

Waiting for his charter at the Lovers Key State Park boat ramp Wednesday morning, Capt. Eric Hart said he sees less fishing line in the mangroves now than in previous years.

“More people are starting to be more conscious about it,” he said. “But there are still people out there who think if you sink a bottle to the bottom of the bay, it’s not littering.”

Another reason for less fishing line in the mangroves, Hart speculated, is more people are using braided fishing line, which is extremely strong and less likely to break when a hook is caught in the mangroves.

That theory sounded good until Parrott found the end of braided line high in the canopy of a mangrove island. Following the line for about 30 feet, she found the rotting carcass of a great blue heron wrapped in the braided line and a long piece of monofilament.

“In the best of all worlds, fishermen along the mangroves would gather their line if they got hung up,” Stafford said. “Then we wouldn’t have to do this. Fishing is a great sport, and we want people to fish here, but we also want them to take their fishing line with them.”

Wednesday’s cleanup started in a chilly northeast wind as the aquatic preserve’s Boston Whaler pulled up to an island north of Lovers Key.

As the team waded ashore, they saw the white feathers and exposed vertebrae of the dead immature little blue heron.

“You ask why we come out here: This is why,” Jones-Morton said. “I think people think ‘out of sight, out of mind:’ If you leave fishing line behind, it’s gone. But it’s not. It stays in the environment for hundreds of years, and it only takes a day for a bird to die.”

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Iceland bans capelin fishing

Reuters 21 Feb 08;

REYKJAVIK (Reuters) - Iceland said fishing for capelin in its waters was halted on Thursday over worries the breeding population has shrunk to dangerously low levels in a move analysts say could damage economic growth.

The ban will last for the rest of the year.

"Putting a halt to capelin fishing is the only option we have right now," Prime Minister Geir Haarde told a parliamentary committee on Thursday, according to Icelandic national radio.

"But of course we hope that we will find more capelin and will be able to start fishing it again," he added.

The usual yearly quota for capelin, a member of the smelt family, is for 250,000 tons. Icelandic fishermen have caught an estimated 40,000 tons so far this year.

The ban is expected to cost Iceland as much as 10 billion Iceland crowns ($149.2 million) in lost exports. Icelandic bank Kaupthing said the ban could shave 0.4-0.7 percentage point from economic growth in 2008.

"This is the second blow to Iceland's fishing industry in little over a year. The cod quota allowance was cut earlier this year, amounting to a decrease in exports in the range of 15-20 billion crowns," the bank said in a note.

But high fish product prices and a favorable exchange rate have cushioned the blows, the bank added.

The decision to stop capelin fishing comes at the instigation of the Icelandic Marine Research Institute, whose research shows there are only about 200,000-270,000 tons of the fish left in the ocean around the North Atlantic island.

This is much less than the 400,000 tons current fishing rules say should be left of the stock for spawning every year.

The Ministry of Fisheries said it will monitor the fishing grounds and has not excluded the possibility that they might find more capelin and that fishing could then start again.

(Reporting by Kristin Arna Bragadottir; editing by Michael Roddy)

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Australian dugongs flee feeding grounds and move

Bayside Bulletin 21 Feb 08;

Dugongs are fleeing seagrass feeding grounds on Moreton and Amity banks and going to places like Thompson’s Point on Macleay, as the grass is more extensive.

A SUDDEN increase in dugong numbers in the South Moreton Bay region has raised concerns over the health of their traditional dugong feeding grounds.

Spokesman for the Wildlife Preservation Society of Queensland Bayside Branch Simon Baltais said the recent Lyngbya toxic algae bloom (cyanobacteria) may have caused significant damage to the seagrass meadows on the Moreton and Amity banks and this might explain the sudden appearance of large numbers of dugongs in the waters of Southern Moreton Bay.

“The sudden appearance of dugongs in the waters of Southern Moreton Bay is a major concern, but also highlights some positives,” he said.

“Photographs by local residents and research by WPSQBB shows the Southern Moreton Bay region still supports significant seagrass meadows and dugongs maybe using these until the seagrass meadows on the Moreton Banks have recovered.

“The use of the seagrass meadows in the Southern Moreton Bay region shows how important they are to the long term survival of the Moreton Bay dugong population.

“We should be ensuring we take great care of these seagrass meadows if we are to continue to enjoy the magnificent sight of dugongs, something that is quite special as there is no other place on the planet where one can see a dugong herd so close to a major urban centre.”

Mr Baltais said anyone boating in the Southern Bay region should show great care and reduce their speed.

“We would be very keen to hear more about these dugong sightings,” he said.

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Orissa should curb turtle deaths: Greenpeace

KalingaTimes 21 Feb 08;

Bhubaneswar, Feb 21: With death of Olive Ridley sea turtles due to illegal fishing spiralling, Greenpeace on Thursday presented the Orissa government with a clear 'upper limit' target for turtle mortality along the coast from Paradip to Chilika.

Criticising the government for failing to solve the recurring tragedy, Greenpeace demanded that the funds recently released by the Centre be utilised to undertake effective patrolling to prevent illegal trawling.

As of January end this year, 2970 turtle carcasses had been counted along this stretch of the coast. Greenpeace challenged the government to reduce the current rate of turtle mortalities by 20 percent until the end of April.

Stating that this figure would itself be on par with turtle mortalities in the previous years, Sanjiv Gopal of Greenpeace said turtle mortalities increasing by the day.

“At the very least, as a first step, the government should commit to keeping the total casualties this year on par with those in previous years. This would require intensive patrolling to keep mechanised fishing out of turtle congregation areas,” Gopal said.

Olive Ridley turtles throng Orissa's coastline between November and May every year and thousands of them get killed each year by illegal fishing.

Previously, state government officials had cited lack of funds as the reason for their inability to protect the species.

In 2007, the state government received from the Centre a sum of Rs 2 crores for turtle protection. The funds were disbursed in November 2007, Greenpeace said in a statement.

This amount was in line with a Greenpeace estimate of Rs.2.2 crores needed for improved patrolling to protect turtles.

Further, the Fisheries Department had also acquired two patrol vessels to enforce the no-trawling zones and protect both turtles and traditional fishermen.

"Even though the resources are now available, it is ironic that the turtle toll until January 31 is almost 3000 in the Paradip–Chilika stretch, a dramatic 76 percent increase from the average of the previous four turtle seasons.

“While reducing mortality to zero might not be practical, it is high time the Government of Orissa demonstrates its commitment to protecting its turtles, by setting itself, progressively depreciating annual turtle mortality reduction targets. It must start with what is left of this turtle season. This benchmark would enable the government's turtle protection efforts to be evaluated in an objective manner,” Gopal said in the statement.

Illegal fishing and especially trawling has resulted in the death of over 100,000 turtles over the last decade. Even as illegal fishing in the Devi river mouth area continues unabated, the situation in the Gahirmatha Marine Sanctuary remains unknown, with no independent verification of official figures possible.

“Further, the government is not open to joint efforts on monitoring the mortality of turtles in collaboration with conservation groups and NGOs, as this would reveal shocking levels of turtle casualties on the Orissa coast.

While the government has maintained that annual mortalities from the last three seasons has not exceeded 4000, estimates from several independent agencies place this at a range above 10,000 for every season,” Gopal said.

"While funds for turtle protection have now been allocated, Greenpeace remains committed to also resolving the concerns of traditional fishermen impacted by conservation measures, either through compensation of income lost or by the initiation of alternative income generation approaches.

Improved patrolling and alternative income generation are two sides of the same coin, and both are critical to resolve the unnecessary and recurring turtle-fisher crisis,” he added.

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Best of our wild blogs: 21 Feb 08

New blog! Biodiversity Crew @ NUS
about researchers and students in the biodiversity research focus group at the Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore. Selected information based on internal emails in 2007 were added to the blog and backdated to the time of their original posting. This site is currently managed by N. Sivasothi a.k.a. Otterman.

Reef talk at Maris Stella High School
part of the International Year of the Reef celebrations, Debby Ng and Toh Chay Hoon give a talk about our reefs and shores! Bravo! more on the hantu blog

Seagrasss Angels at Labrador Park
Our youngest seagrassers do a check up on this beloved but beleaguered shore on the labrador blog

Himalayan Swift controversy
an update on the bird ecology blog

TeamSeagrass at Semakau
a wonderful weekday at this large seagrass meadow on the teamseagrass blog and a photo montage on the budak blog

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Dolphin Exporter Wants To Export Live Dolphins to Singapore

Pacific Magazine 18 Feb 08;

(Solomon Star)

Fisherman and dolphin exporter Robert Satu has signed an agreement with Western Provincial Government allowing him to export fish from the province and supply the Honiara market, reports the Solomon Star.

“My aim is to give money to the grassroots and I am prepared to help our local fishermen get maximum benefit from their catch,” Satu says.

The local fisherman also hopes to secure another license from the provincial government to supply tame dolphins to hotels in Gizo for tourists, and to export live dolphins to Singapore.

Dolphin exporter signs deal with Western Province
Joy A. Rikimae, Solomon Star 19 Feb 08;

LOCAL fisherman and dolphin exporter Robert Satu yesterday signed an agreement with Western Provincial Government allowing him to fish in the province to sell overseas.
Mr Satu said the agreement would also allow him to provide for the market in Honiara City.

Under the arrangement Mr Satu will be fishing and buying fish from locals to sell. “My aim is to give money to the grassroots and I am prepared to help our local fishermen get maximum benefit from their catch,” the local fisherman said.

Mr Satu said he would be buying fish from locals at a good price.

He will be using his boat “Send Grouper” to trade around Western Province.

Mr Satu said the boat, which he bought for AU$98,000 (SB$650,000) will be arriving in Gizo from Brisbane, Australia, next week.

The local fisherman also hoped to get another license from Western Province Government to supply tame dolphins to hotels in Gizo for tourists.

“This is part of attracting tourists to our islands,” Mr Satu said.

Meanwhile, Mr Satu is now looking at exporting live dolphins to Singapore. “I have switched from Dubai because Singapore offers a more attractive package for our market,” Mr Satu said.

He said he now have 18 dolphins ready for export.


Related articles

Solomon Islands to export 30 dolphins to Dubai
Yahoo News 12 Oct 07

3 dolphins found dead in Solomon Islands
Yahoo News 17 Oct 07

Report of a Fact-finding Visit to the Solomon Islands, 9-12 September 2003 (PDF file)
by Graham Ross1, Frances Gulland1, Nick Gales, Robert Brownell and Randall Reeves

Environmental Concerns Action Network Of Solomon Islands response to the IUCN REPORT

"ECANSI (Environmental Concerns Action Network of Solomon Islands) wishes to place on record the deep concern of this organization over the Report of a Fact-finding visit to the Solomon Islands, 9-12 September, 2003 by Drs Graham Ross and Frances Gulland on behalf of the IUCN Cetacean Specialist Group and the IUCN/SSC Veterinary Specialist Group."

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Feedback participants ask why Budget 2008 exclude disabled, green issues

Channel NewsAsia 20 Feb 08;

SINGAPORE : Participants at a feedback session on Tuesday questioned why there are no major announcements on environmental issues in this year's Budget.

But Minister of State for Finance and Transport Lim Hwee Hua said this does not imply that the government has little interest on this topic.

Mrs Lim made this point at an internet dialogue on the Budget which involved 33 participants consisting of students, professionals and businessmen aged 16 to 68.

She highlighted the work of the recently-formed inter-ministerial committee as a platform for green issues.

During the e-Townhall, some participants also talked about the cost of daily expenses and how monetary handouts are being assessed.

Some asked why the type of housing is being used. But the Vice-Chairman of REACH, Dr Mohamad Maliki Osman, who co-chaired the event, pointed out that besides the type of housing, assessment is also made using the size of income.

Others wanted to know why the handicap seemed to be left out during the Budget announcement.

But Mrs Lim pointed out that different ministries are looking after different issues affecting the disabled, including education and transport matters.

And this is because the handicap or elderly do not belong to any one particular ministry.

Mrs Lim said: "The fact that certain topics are not included in any particular year's Budget does not mean that they are forgotten or they are of lesser importance. They will continue to be reviewed and when there are substantive tax changes or policy changes or incentives to be provided, then they would be included in the Budget. So the Budget is just one point in the whole timeline in any ministries' works." - CNA/de

A green way round rising costs
Do more to encourage energy-efficient practices, urges business community
Sheralyn Tay and Cheow Xin Yi, Today Online 21 Feb 08;

BUDGET 2008 may mean different things to different people. But for some in the business community, it is noted for its silence on the green front.

Several panellists at a seminar to analyse the Budget's impact on businesses here expressed disappointment that it failed to even mention the word "green".

One, Mr Phillip Overmyer, said that simple measures — such as providing tax incentives for companies remodelling or building new facilities to install equipment and fixtures that are energy efficient — would have made for a good start towards a greener Budget.

Mr Overmyer, chief executive of the Singapore International Chamber of Commerce, was among the five speakers who took part in a panel discussion at the seminar organised by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

PwC tax partner David Sandison added: "I think Singapore has possibly missed an opportunity in the wake of the Bali conference on climate change to come out with something world-leading because it's one of the highest consumers of energy per capita in the world."

At a post-Budget Internet dialogue on Tuesday, Minister of State for Finance and Transport Lim Hwee Hua said the lack of green incentives in the Budget did not imply that the Government had little interest in the area.

Indeed, in recent years, much progress has been made to put green issues — especially energy efficiency — on the national agenda.

The slew of green initiatives that have been introduced includes the Green Mark, a scheme that recognises buildings for environmental sustainability. However, there are also those who believe that Singapore could go much further in its attempts to embrace green energy in a big way.

For example, Singapore may want to consider feed-in tariffs (FITs) as a means of promoting the use of green energy, said Mr Stefan Mueller, managing director of Conergy Asia Pacific in Singapore, the regional headquarters for the German-based company that specialises in renewable energy solutions.

Countries which promote FITs have laws that require utilities companies to buy green energy back from households, companies or organisations that generate it — at a higher market rate to help offset the investment costs. In other words, by installing a renewable energy solution to a house or a commercial building, the owner not only saves money but also stands to make some — always a great way to promote a new initiative.

According to Mr Mueller, some 40 countries, including Germany, South Korea and Spain, have benefited from FITs.

In response to Today's queries, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) noted that the FIT scheme has several drawbacks. It may distort "the playing field" between the various energy options, and homeowners may face higher electricity bills.

According to a white paper by the World Future Council, a non-governmental organisation, FITs help accelerate the switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy by making the latter more economically viable.

For example, solar-derived electricity is currently two to three times more expensive than electricity tariffs for households in Singapore. But the more people adopt renewable energy solutions, the cheaper the technology is likely to be.

According to Mr Mueller, since 1990, Germany's FIT structure has created 214,000 jobs and saved 97 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 and at a cost of about US$2 ($2.80) more per household per month.

"Looking at green energy regulations and incentives that have been implemented elsewhere, perhaps this is one area in which Singapore is falling behind," Mr Mueller said.

For example, more needs to be done to encourage the use of Photovoltaic (PV) technology — systems that generate electricity from sunlight, Mr Mueller said. In tropical Singapore, PV is the most viable renewable energy option, compared to wind or water.

The few PV systems here are a "recent occurrence", said the Building and Construction Authority (BCA). They have been installed in several educational institutions as well as the BCA Academy and Biopolis.

Mr Howard Shaw, executive director of the Singapore Environment Council, also believes the FIT system could be a "good addition" to the country's overall renewable energy infrastructure.

"The idea is that a home that generates any access energy can sell it back to the grid essentially means that your electricity meter could move backwards or run slower," he said.

But while the FIT energy model may have worked well in several countries, the Government "has chosen not to adopt FIT currently" because of several drawbacks, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI).

"By acting as an implicit subsidy, FIT for solar power essentially distorts the playing field among the various energy options and could possibly result in a sub-optimal allocation of resources," said an MTI spokesperson. "Unless there are clear signs of market failure, we do not think it is desirable for the Government to subsidise one energy source over another."

The MTI also added that FITs result in higher electricity prices as the FIT premium used to cross-subsidise renewable energy will have to be borne by all consumers, households and businesses alike.

"In some cases, FIT rates could end up being as much as two to three times higher than the electricity tariffs generated through conventional means," the spokesperson said.

But the MTI stressed that the Government is not dismissing solar power.

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Singapore cannot sustain 6.5 million comfortably

Letter from Yong Koi Kwong, Straits Times Forum 21 Feb 08;

IT WAS reported recently in The Straits Times that the country planners are toying with the idea of a 6.5 million city state.

MM Lee is of the opinion that the city state could accommodate a country of 5-5.5 million with a certain level of comfort. I could not but agree more with MM Lee's idea.

Singapore is situated in a hot humid equatorial region. The average relative humidity is 80 per cent with a daily average temperature of 24 to 32 degrees Celcius for virtually the whole year. The average number of hours of sunshine is 5.5 to 6 hours. It is very unpleasant to live in such an environment if there is no natural ventilation to take away one's perspiration.

Our country is unique in that we are a sovereign city state with no countryside. Only half the land could be built up (including about 12 per cent for roads). The rest of the country is occupied by military training grounds, central catchment area, 17 reservoirs and golf courses and five airports or airfields and two naval bases.

In spite of our relentless land reclamation for the last 40-odd years which grew our country to the present area of about 700 sq km and a projected area of 780 sq km, Singapore would be the most densely populated country with 12,800 persons per sq km of habitable area if the population is projected to grow to 5 million. If the population is planned for 6.5 million, the average number of persons per sq km is 16,640.

We always compare ourselves with Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a special case as there is no necessity to make aside land for defence and reservoirs. If Hong Kong is to grow to 10 million people the average density is only less than 10,000 per sq km (the area of Hong Kong is 1,045 sq m).

Hong Kong is in the sub-tropical region with a lower relative humidity. Half the year, the weather in Hong Kong is relatively cool and pleasant.

The aim of economic growth is to provide a good overall living environment for all the people, not just figures.

The founding group of leaders headed by MM Lee has done a good job of bringing our country to this present level of living standards for the vast majority of the population and they rarely made mistakes.

We could live with the accolade such as the busiest port, best run airline and airport but the accolade that we are the densest populated sovereign state is one which we could live without.

This is the only piece of real estate which we Singaporeans have on this planet Earth and would be proud to call our country.

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GDP still best measure of economic health

Today Online 21 Feb 08;
Letter from Lim Bee Khim
Director Corporate Communications
For Permanent Secretary
Ministry of Trade and Industry

We refer to the article, "A silver lining to a lower GDP?" (Feb 15), which makes several assertions about Singapore's economic performance that we would like to comment on.

First, the article argues that gross domestic product (GDP) is not a good measure to gauge a country's economic progress.

It is true that GDP has its limitations as a measure of economic welfare or progress. It does not reflect externalities like environmental costs nor does it reflect income distribution.

What GDP does measure is the income generated by economic activities within a country — and this is still the best gauge of an economy's progress. Knowing a country's GDP per capita tells us a lot more about the economic well-being of its people than any other single measure. Other measures can complement GDP but cannot replace it.

Second, the article suggests that GDP growth has benefit- ted mainly capital owners. The fact is that GDP growth has benefitted owners of both labour and capital.

The wage share of GDP has remained fairly stable over the years. Excluding the years of economic slowdown, the wage share has ranged from 41 per cent to 44 per cent over the last 20 years with no discernible trend up or down.

Third, the article argues that GDP growth came largely from immigration. But this ignores the complementary role that foreign manpower plays in our economy. It is true that of Singapore's total employment growth of 237,000 in 2007, local employment growth accounted for less than half — at 92,000.

But the pertinent question is not whether foreign employment grew faster than local employment, but whether the inflow of foreign manpower has helped labour-short businesses to expand, attract investments that might otherwise not have come to Singapore and create jobs for locals.

A more relevant measure of the role of foreign manpower is the local unemployment rate — which has fallen to 3.0 per cent, the lowest in a decade. Local employment growth has been setting record highs for three consecutive years.

Fourth, the article infers that Singapore is losing competitiveness since labour productivity declined by 0.9 per cent in 2007. Assessments of productivity and competitiveness cannot be made on the basis of just one year's data.

Measured productivity is strongly influenced by cyclical factors. Productivity is best assessed over a longer horizon. Over the past five years (2003-2007), annual productivity growth averaged 3.1 per cent — a respect-able rate of growth for a mature economy like Singapore.

The strong GDP growth of recent years has benefitted Singaporeans. In 2007, the average nominal monthly household income of resident households rose 9.6 per cent, the highest increase in a decade. To ensure the well-being of all Singaporeans, we must continue to focus on economic growth and the quality of that growth.

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A Silver Lining to a Lower GDP?

Loh Chee Kong, Today Online 21 Feb 08;

Yes, if it drives us to a wider perspective of progress

LIKE a Formula One racer dropping several gears to enter a treacherous bend, the projected slowdown in Singapore's economic growth may not be all bad news — not even in a country seemingly obsessed with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

From a blistering 7.7-per-cent annual GDP growth, on average, of the past four years, Singapore's economy is forecast to grow between a more muted 4 and 6 per cent this year.

Moderate growth can be a good thing, say economists, if it injects a sense of realism amid inflation that hit historic highs last year.

Said CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun: "When the economy is continually expanding, the expectation of strong growth could lead to inflationary pressure when there's too much demand chasing after too few goods."

Here's the rub: If high GDP growth isn't always good news, what does this say about its limitations as a primary gauge of a country's economic progress? And what are the possible chinks in the Singapore armour masked by such headline figures?

Take the nation's low productivity levels last year and some economists' perception that Singapore is taking a shortcut with its aggressive immigration drive.

Former top civil servant Ngiam Tong Dow has argued that our GDP has expanded "largely on infusions of foreign labour" and has identified raising productivity as the "central economic challenge". He questioned if the Government's intention to hit a population size of 6.5 million was a stop-gap measure that could inflict social and economic costs.

Citigroup economist Chua Hak Bin said: "A lot of growth is coming from immigration. It's not certain that income per capita is rising as strongly."

Still, the economists agree, Singapore has to import labour in the short term. And yes, a larger population base could make Singapore more resilient to swings in the global economy.

But if this base comprises a larger fraction of foreigners, who are probably less rooted, "the swings in the labour force will be more dramatic with the economic cycles", said Dr Chua.

What about boosting productivity instead?

HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde's back-of-the-envelope calculations showed productivity is shrinking by 3 per cent while wages are rising by 7 per cent. "That's clearly unsustainable. It implies Singapore is losing a lot of competitiveness."

But Mr Song thinks productivity levels could be distorted by the growing labour-intensive hospitality and financial sectors, in which output cannot be accurately measured.

"We shouldn't get too hung up about productivity measures at this juncture. It has to be taken into the context of the industry you are talking about, compared to the global figures," he said.

Dr Chua disagreed, citing the example of Hong Kong, which has a similar economic make-up but higher productivity.

Aside from media headlines, Singapore's apparent fixation with GDP extends to the civil service, in which the remuneration of ministers and top civil servants includes a bonus of up to eight months' pay if growth hits 10 per cent or more.

Yet, GDP figures are "at best, a snapshot of the economy", says Mr Song — and increasingly so in a globalised economy, in which capital flows, largely unchecked, and incomes at the top and bottom stretch out.

While the GDP acts as a common yardstick for all countries, it does not capture an economy's peculiarities. In Singapore's case, he points out, its size and openness mean headline numbers tend to "exaggerate" the actual state of the economy.

For instance, the GDP wobbled in the fourth quarter last year due mainly to the volatile pharmaceutical sector, which employs relatively few people, he said.

Apart from not reflecting income distribution, the GDP does not capture negative externalities generated by economic growth, such as environmental degradation.

Elsewhere, policymakers are warming up to the use of alternative measurements. In France, President Nicholas Sarkozy has appointed Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz to head a panel to devise a new method of economic calculation that includes quality-of-life factors.

Should other measurements, such as the Gross National Income — which measures the amount of wealth that stays within a country's borders — and the median wage, have bigger roles to play?

"The issue really is, who benefits from GDP growth? A lot of the gains come from capital owners rather than the average worker," said Dr Chua. "If you look at the median wage, there can be years when even though growth was quite strong, the average wage of the low-income can actually fall in absolute terms."

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