"The Limits to Growth": book written in the 70's 'still on track'.

Seventies book predicted our future
CSIRO, ScienceAlert 12 Nov 08

Based on then ground-breaking modelling, the forecasts of global ecological and economic collapse by mid-century contained in the controversial 1972 book; The Limits to Growth, are still ‘on-track’ according to new CSIRO research.

The Limits to Growth modelled scenarios for the future global economy and environment and recommended far reaching changes to the way we live to avoid disaster.

In a paper published in the international journal; Global Environmental Change, CSIRO physicist Dr Graham Turner compares forecasts from the book with global data from the past 30 years.

”The real-world data basically supports The Limits to Growth model,” he says. “It shows that for the first 30 years of the model, the world has been tracking along the unsustainable trajectory of the book’s business-as-usual scenario.”

“The original modelling predicts that if we continue down that track and do not substantially reduce our consumption and increase technological progress, the global economy will collapse by the middle of this century.

"The contemporary issues of peak oil, climate change, and food and water security, resonate strongly with the overshoot and collapse displayed in the business-as-usual scenario of The Limits to Growth.”

This is the first time anyone has comprehensively tested the predictions of the first, and still one of the most comprehensive, global models linking the world economy to the environment.

“We’ve had the rare opportunity to evaluate the output of a global model against observed and independent data,” says Dr Turner.

To date, the recommendations of The Limits to Growth, which included fundamental changes of policy and behaviour for sustainability, have not been implemented.

The Limits to Growth documented the results of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study carried out by Meadows et al, who were commissioned by The Club of Rome to analyse the 'world problematique' using a computer model developed at MIT called World3.

The Limits to Growth became the best selling environmental book in history, selling more than 30 million copies in 30 languages.

“In the years since 1972, The Limits to Growth has provoked much criticism but our research indicates that the main claims against the modelling are false,” Dr Turner says.

CSIRO warns of climate change doomsday
Peter Jean, Herald Sun 12 Nov 08;

THE world may be on track to face economic and ecological collapses by the middle of the century, according to CSIRO research.

The 1972 bestselling scientific report The Limits to Growth warned of possible doomsday scenarios created by unchecked use of resources.

A study by CSIRO physicist Dr Graham Turner found data projections made in The Limits to Growth were correct.

Dr Turner said projections relating to population, food and industrial production, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources between 1970 and 2000 were broadly accurate.

"Unless (The Limits of Growth) is invalidated by other scientific research, the data comparison presented here lends support to the conclusion that the global system is on an unsustainable trajectory," he said.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers commissioned by environment group The Club of Rome used computer modelling to develop The Limits to Growth study.

The report has been criticised by many economists and scientists over the years.

Under a "business as usual" scenario modelled in the report, the world population and the use of industrial resources would continue to grow.

Pollution would increase, harming agricultural production and human life and more energy and resources would be required to access declining levels of non-renewable natural resources.

"Eventually those pollution effects cause a big decline in the population," Dr Turner said.

The Limits of Growth said disaster could be averted through technological advances and a reduction in consumption of material goods.

Dr Turner said there was still time to reduce the potential impacts of the looming environmental and economic problems by controlling pollution levels.

"There is still time to avert things, but we may have to consider some environmental degradation and impacts on the economy might still occur," he said.

The Limits of Growth called for couples not to have more than two children and for the consumption of goods and resources to be cut to around the levels of the 1950s.

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Emissions will destroy Southern Ocean in 20 years: Australian researchers

Researchers find emissions destroy Southern Ocean marine life
Radio Australia 11 Nov 08;

Australian scientists have estimated that carbon emissions will start destroying marine life in the Southern Ocean in just over 20 years time.

Our reporter Nonee Walsh says the world's oceans absorb carbon dioxide, and are becoming more acidic.

A University of New South Wales researcher Ben McNeil has factored in seasonal variations, and found acidity levels in the Southern Ocean will damage tiny ocean organisms, sooner than previously thought.

"They start to dissolve. One is called a tetrapod - swimming snails, and they form the basis of the food chain. It has the effect of amplifying bringing forward the onset of these problematic conditions for these particular species."

Dr McNeil's tipping point is expected to be reached in 2030, when global atmospheric carbon is 15 percent higher than it is now.

Terminal diagnosis for ocean creatures
Richard Macey, Sydney Morning Herald 12 Nov 08;

RISING acid levels in the Southern Ocean will start destroying sea life within 30 years, three decades earlier than previously thought, Australian climate change researchers warned yesterday.

Much of the carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere by human activity is absorbed by the oceans, causing the sea water to become more acidic.

Scientists had previously predicted that when carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 550 parts per million - compared with about 383 parts per million today - the oceans would become so acidic that the calcium in the shells of sea creatures would start dissolving. However, it was thought it would take 60 to 100 years for such a "tipping point" to be reached.

But new findings by Ben McNeil, of the University of NSW, and the CSIRO's Dr Richard Matear, suggest rising acidity may trigger "irreversible" destruction of shell creatures far sooner.

Dr McNeil said yesterday that the earlier predictions had been based on average annual atmospheric carbon dioxide projections. They overlooked the impact of seasonal variations in the Southern Ocean.

Every winter, Dr McNeil said, strong winds stirred the Southern Ocean, causing cold water from deeper than 500 metres to be pushed towards the surface.

"The process is known as an upwelling," Dr McNeil said, adding that the rising water dragged up carbon dioxide dissolved by the sea up to 50 years ago.

The carbon dioxide-rich rising water then mixed with surface water and absorbed the greenhouse gas from the atmosphere, amplifying acid levels.

The scientists calculated that in winter, when upwelling peaks, the Southern Ocean would become acidic enough to dissolve the shells of some sea life when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached just 450 parts per million.

If current trends continued, Dr McNeil said, that would happen within 30 years.

He predicted that pteropods, "swimming snails" just a few millimetres long that form part of the base of the ocean's food chain, would be among the first to die as their shells contained the delicate mineral aragonite, which dissolved quickly in relatively low acid levels.

The Federal Government's climate change adviser, Professor Ross Garnaut, in his report in September, backed pegging carbon dioxide levels to 550 parts per million, arguing that world leaders were not ready for any tougher agreement holding levels to no more than 450 parts per million, a ceiling supported by many European scientists.

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Australia Unlikely To Monitor Japan Whaling

Rob Taylor, PlanetArk 12 Nov 08;

CANBERRA - Australia's government is unlikely to send ships to monitor Japanese whaling in the Antarctic this season, lawmakers said on Tuesday, after clashes with activists last year led to a diplomatic protest from Tokyo.

Canberra last year sent a customs and fisheries icebreaker to shadow anti-whaling activists and the Japanese fleet, gathering photo evidence of the yearly research hunt for a possible international legal case against Tokyo.

But after high-seas clashes between the whalers and activists in the frigid Southern Ocean, the brief detention of activists on a whale hunting ship and diplomatic protests from Japan, Environment Minister Peter Garrett would not promise a repeat.

"The Japanese whaling fleet is expected to launch within the next month, yet still the government refuses to take any active steps to prevent this annual slaughter," Australian Greens Senator Rachel Siewert told reporters.

Despite the moratorium on whaling, Japan is allowed an annual "scientific" hunt, arguing whaling is a cherished tradition and the hunt is necessary to study whales.

Japan's whaling fleet will leave for the Antarctic within weeks and intends to cull 850 minke and 50 fin whales in the Southern Ocean this season, Australian lawmakers said. Japan has yet to confirm the hunt target.

"I urge Minister Garrett to take action before we have to sit by and once again watch our endangered whale population slaughtered under the guise of Japanese "scientific research"," Siewert said.

Seven out of the 13 great whale species are classed as endangered or vulnerable by environment group WWF, including fin whales. Japan last year retreated on a plan to hunt endangered humpback whales after international protests.

Garrett said this week Australia's centre-left government had been clear about its opposition to Japanese scientific whaling and recently named an ambassador for whale conservation.

"Everything that we said that we would do in order to engage on this issue we have done and we'll continue strong diplomatic engagement in the mean time," Garrett said.

GREENPEACE

Environment watchdog Greenpeace has also decided not to send an anti-whaling ship south this year amid expectations Japan may send a coastguard ship with the fleet to ward off activists.

Greenpeace Australia-Pacific Chief Executive Steve Shallhorn said the watchdog wanted to oppose whaling at home in Japan, while two of its activists are to face a Japanese court next year on charges of stealing whale meat. Japan's Coast Guard said it was unaware of plans for a ship to accompany the fleet, although Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said Tokyo would not be in breach of anti-arms protocols covering the Antarctic.

The hardline Sea Shepherd conservation group, which led last year's campaign, launching stinkbombs and boarding a Japanese ship, said it would again disrupt the hunt and hoped to double its protest fleet this year to two ships.

"I don't care if they send the whole Japanese navy down there. We're not going to be intimidated," Sea Shepherd founder Captain Paul Watson said. Watson, in claims rejected by the Japanese, last year claimed to have been shot at from a whaler.

(Additional reporting by Isabel Reynolds in Tokyo, editing by Sanjeev Miglani)

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Chinese Menus, Medicine Threatening Wildlife

Emma Graham-Harrison, PlanetArk 12 Nov 08;

BEIJING - Wild animals are climbing back onto Chinese plates after the deadly SARS virus made some diners wary, and booming demand for traditional medicine is also threatening some plants, environmentalists said on Wednesday.

Nearly half of urbanites had consumed wildlife in the past 12 months, either as food or medicine, with rich and well educated Chinese most likely to tuck into a wild snake or turtle, a survey of urbanites in six cities found.

They enjoyed eating wildlife because they saw it as "unpolluted", "special" and with extra nourishing and health powers, according to a study commissioned by Traffic, the wildlife trade monitoring network.

"This consumer demand is increasingly placing the natural environment -- both in China and abroad -- at risk through unsustainable and illegal wildlife trade," the report said.

Around half of the southern Chinese markets checked by Traffic were also selling wildlife for the pot, mostly reptiles but some birds and mammals as well. Two species for sale are on an international list of 800 critically threatened animals.

In an encouraging sign, only 3 percent of diners order the most endangered animals, but Traffic said a new approach was needed to persuade Chinese customers not to eat other wildlife.

Species endangered by their culinary and medicinal popularity in China include the pangolin, tiger and Chinese sturgeon, the report said.

"A PROBLEM FOR YOU"

An outbreak of the deadly SARS virus six years ago resulted in a local gourmet favourite -- the civet -- being banished to the black market. The racoon-like animal was blamed for spreading SARS, which infected 8,000 people globally and killed 800.

And more than half the people surveyed still worried about the threat of diseases, hinting at one possible tactic in the battle to cut sales of wildlife for the dining table.

"A 'causing a problem to you' approach (e.g. legal liability, deteriorated living environment, hazardous to one's health) instead of a 'be compassionate' approach could have a more immediate effect," the report said.

The demand for medicine could also be as destructive to natural vegetation and habitats as the quest for food, in a country where traditional medicine is widely used and has also yielded valuable compounds for use in Western treatments.

The country's total exports of traditional medicine were also worth $1.1 billion last year. Catering to this market and the demand from an expanding and increasingly wealthy domestic population is straining areas where wild plants are gathered.

Up to a fifth of medicinal plants and animals are now considered endangered, Traffic said.

But only about one third of China's traditional medicine output is from wild plants, the rest are farmed -- most with good practice.

Chinese wildlife consumption on the rise
WWF wesbite 11 Nov 08;

Beijing, China: The consumption of threatened species is on the rise in China again following a brief hiatus owing to fears surrounding the SARS virus in 2003.

A survey of five southern Chinese cities by TRAFFIC, the wildlife trade monitoring network, found that 13 of 25 markets and 20 of 50 restaurants had wild animals for sale. A total of 56 species were found and, of these, eight are protected under Chinese law and 17 are protected under CITES, which prohibits or strictly controls international trade.

The majority of illegal wild animal trade was in freshwater turtles and snakes. In China, freshwater turtles and snakes are sold mostly for their meat and for medicinal purposes.

The findings are included in the TRAFFIC report entitled The State of Wildlife Trade in China in 2007, published today. Also found by the report is the fact that Chinese traditional medicine trade is growing rapidly and that China is the world’s second largest wood importer.

“The report examines the impact China’s consumption is having on biodiversity and what emerging trends there are in wildlife trade,” said Professor Xu Hongfa, co-ordinator of TRAFFIC’s China Programme.

The report notes that that while Russia is currently the top supplier of wood to China, Africa increasingly accounts for a growing percentage which is stimulating illegal timber trade in Africa.

“Chinese companies buying African timber must ensure the benefits of the timber trade are equitably shared, right down to the African rural communities on whose land the trees are growing,” said Professor Xu.

Chinese traditional medicine trade has grown at an annual rate of 10 per cent since 2003. Most exports ($687 million-worth) go to Asia, but Europe ($162 million) and North America ($144 million) are increasingly important markets.

Over-harvesting and poor management of resources are looming threats, and currently there are no standards to ensure the sustainable collection of wild medicinal plants.

“The trends seen in this report that show increasing demand in wildlife products and diminishing supply should be a wake-up call for law enforcement, policy makers and consumers,” said Dr. Susan Lieberman, Director of WWF International’s Species Programme.

“We call upon Chinese authorities to enhance enforcement and public education efforts, to stop illegal trade and reduce consumption of threatened species from around the world.”

One bright spot for China is the fact that the illegal ivory trade is declining. The report found that the situation has improved since a year earlier, with surveys showing a substantial reduction in the number of outlets selling ivory illegally.

“The reduction in the illegal ivory trade is very welcome, but we urge the authorities to remain vigilant, particularly to ensure there is no laundering of illegal ivory,” said Professor Xu.

The report is the second in an annual series on emerging trends in China’s wildlife trade, and provides up-to-date reviews of work being carried out to prevent illegal and support sustainable trade in China.

Other issues examined in the report include the illegal trade in musk, the link between the sea cucumber trade to Taiwan with marine biodiversity in the Galapagos, and links between Russian salmon fisheries and Chinese markets.

(Editing by Jeremy Laurence)

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Fish Farms Among New Chances For Arid Nations

Alister Doyle, PlanetArk 12 Nov 08;

OSLO - Solar energy, ecotourism and even fish farms can create new jobs in arid regions of developing nations as global warming strains scant water supplies, a UN report said on Tuesday.

A four-year study of drylands in eight countries, ranging from China to Tunisia, showed that people could shift to less water-intensive farming and set up new businesses, sometimes helped by microcredits, to cope with climate change.

"We have to think outside the box, look at options where dependence on water resources is much lower," said Zafar Adeel, a co-author and director of the UN University's International Network on Water, Environment and Health (INWEH)

"Agriculture takes up to 70 to 90 percent of freshwater supply in drylands," he told Reuters by telephone, quoting from a 42-page study entitled "People in Marginal Drylands" issued at a conference in Turkey.

One project near the Cholistan desert in Pakistan showed that largely untapped brackish water could be used for farming fish, a new source of protein for local people that could also be sold in local towns.

Ponds used for "arid aquaculture", using inland fish able to withstand high salt levels, produced more food than if the same volume of water was used to irrigate fields.

"If you can use the water for different purposes you multiply the benefits," Thomas Schaaf, a co-author and head of the Ecological Sciences and Biodiversity section at UNESCO, told Reuters. Pond sludge could be used as fertiliser.


CHICKENS

In a dryland region of Inner Mongolia in China, a shift to chicken farming from cattle herding boosted incomes and helped preserve vegetation from over-grazing.

"Instead of putting grasslands into cattle meat it was much better to put it into chicken meat", said Richard Thomas, deputy head of INWEH.

A project in Tunisia is developing ecotourism on the fringe of the Sahara desert. In Jordan, people are making "dryland soaps" based on olive oil and fragrances from local aromatic plants such as lavender, geranium, pomegranate and mint.

In Egypt, solar panels are used to power a desalination plant, bringing drinking water from underground.

As a spinoff, Egypt has started manufacturing solar-powered desalination units for use elsewhere -- along the coast, salty water from the Mediterranean often seeps into groundwater.

Adeel said the examples were meant to help counter excessive pessimism about desertification blamed on global warming.

"When you paint a very gloomy picture the response is a non-response or paralysis at a policy level," he said. "We hope ... some of these success stories lead to a larger scale national response."

From 2009 projects will be launched in Burkina Faso, Bolivia and India.

According to UN data, drylands cover 40 percent of the global land area and are home to nearly a third of the world's population, 90 percent of whom live in developing countries.

The UN Climate Panel has forecast that global warming, blamed mainly on human emissions of greenhouse gases, will strain water supplies and cause deserts to spread.

(Editing by Andrew Roche)

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First "Sustainable" Palm Oil On Way To Rotterdam

Catherine Hornby PlanetArk 12 Nov 08;

ROTTERDAM - The first shipment of palm oil which is certified as "sustainable" by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) is due to reach Rotterdam next week, as critics still question whether the label is justified.

Under fire for its role in rainforest and wildlife destruction, the palm oil industry established the RSPO in 2004 to develop a certification system and this first shipment is a milestone, industry leaders said on Tuesday.

"The upcoming arrival of this first batch of oil is a small but significant step towards having all the world's palm oil produced in a socially and environmentally sustainable way," said Jan Kees Vis, President of the RSPO.

The 500 tonne shipment of palm oil from Malaysia to Europe's biggest port was produced by United Plantations, with consumer goods giant Unilever and Britain's third largest grocer J. Sainsbury among the buyers.

Almost half the products on an average supermarket's shelves contain palm oil, ranging from margarines and biscuits to lipsticks, shampoo and detergents.

"Any sustainability standard has to be dynamic and constantly challenged. But I'm confident that the palm oil we've bought is of a higher standard and doesn't compare with anything we have sourced before," said Fiona Wheatley, natural resources manager for Sainsbury's Supermarkets Ltd.

The RSPO said palm oil production could be considered sustainable if it met certain criteria such as protecting and conserving the environment around the plantation and dealing with its workforce and local communities in a responsible way.

But environmental group Greenpeace said in a report on Tuesday that the system was failing to tackle issues including deforestation, peat lands clearance and land conflicts. It said the criteria needed to be toughened up.

RSPO's Vis argued that the assessment processes were sufficiently rigorous but he added that the conclusions of the Greenpeace report would be examined.

The RSPO said it expected palm oil production capacity certified as sustainable to reach 1.5 million tonnes by early 2009, compared to total annual palm oil production of more than 38 million tonnes.

Most of the demand for sustainable palm oil comes from Europe, and to some extent from the United States, Vis said.

"What we need to do is involve the other big markets where palm oil is being consumed, which are mainly China, India and local markets in central Asia and Africa."

(Reporting by Catherine Hornby, Editing by Peter Blackburn)

Sustainable shipment opens new palm oil options
WWF website 12 Nov 08;

Rotterdam, NL: The arrival of the first certified sustainable palm oil shipment in Europe opens up possibilities for palm oil users to move away from subsidising forest destruction and social disruption from expanding palm oil plantations.

The shipment, from south-east Asia, is of palm oil certified as compliant with the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) Principles and Criteria, a set of standards that ensure that palm oil is produced in a socially and environmentally responsible way.

As a founding member of the RSPO, WWF has worked since 2002 with a wide range of stakeholders to ensure that the RSPO standards contain robust social and environmental criteria, including a prohibition on the conversion of valuable forests.

“The arrival of RSPO certified palm oil in Europe is an important milestone,” said Rodney Taylor, Director of WWF International’s Forest Programme. “With the RSPO’s certification system up and running, companies now have the means to buy responsibly.”

Over 28 million tonnes of palm oil are produced worldwide and it is used in a wide variety of foods including margarine, cooking oil, crisps, cakes, biscuits and pastry. It is also found in cosmetics, soaps, shampoos and detergents.

However oil palm plantations have often imposed environmental and social costs due to loss of habitat important to threatened and endangered species and indiscriminate forest clearing which contributes to climate change.

The RSPO brings together oil palm growers, oil processors, food companies, retailers, NGOs and investors to help ensure that no rainforest areas are sacrificed for new palm oil plantations, that all plantations minimize their environmental impacts and that basic rights of local peoples and plantation workers are fully respected.

Several European companies, including Unilever, Sainsbury’s and Albert Heijn, have already made strong public commitments to buy certified sustainable palm oil.

Many more companies need to do the same. WWF calls on retailers and manufacturers to get behind the RSPO by making concrete, timebound plans to shift their palm oil purchases to 100 per cent certified.

While welcoming the shipment, WWF also believes that the RSPO needs to tighten and strengthen its systems, and will be encouraging such action at the November annual meeting of the body.

RSPO membership is open to producers who are not certified. While its Code of Conduct encourages member producers to pursue certification, the RSPO lacks any real checks on the practices of these uncertified members.

Stakeholders do not always appreciate the distinction between a company’s membership of the RSPO and the certification of individual plantations.

This places the RSPO’s credibility at risk, especially given the recent Greenpeace reports alleging that several RSPO members are engaged in practices prohibited by the RSPO criteria for socially and environmentally responsible production of palm oil.

“The RSPO should fully investigate allegations of misconduct against its members,” said Taylor. “The RSPO can maintain its credibility by refusing to provide any form of cover for a company that violates the RSPO sustainability criteria.”

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Paper price collapse blows hole in Britain's recycling strategy

Mark Milner, guardian.co.uk 11 Nov 08;

Britain's paper recycling strategy is under increasing strain after a collapse in waste prices in recent weeks, according to a leading industry organisation.

Britain lacks the capacity to handle the rising amount of paper being recovered for recycling, and its dependence on exports has left it vulnerable to a rapid price collapse, the Confederation of Paper Industries said yesterday.

Far Eastern buyers had been snapping up about three-quarters of Britain's exports of paper for recycling, but demand from the region has almost disappeared recently, the CPI said.

"With no obvious signs of Far East buyers returning to the market soon there is a serious possibility that storage of recyclables may end up being a high-risk strategy with huge costs to those requiring storage, including the taxpayers through local authorities," the CPI said in a statement.

"The worst-case scenario is that some material collected for recycling could go to incineration or landfill," CPI recovered paper sector manager, Peter Seggie, said.

The UK collects about 8.6m tonnes of paper and board for recycling every year but UK paper makers can only handle 4m tonnes, resulting in dependence on export markets, primarily the Far East and Europe, to take the remainder.

According to the CPI, far eastern buyers had been taking 3m tonnes but have backed away, triggering a price collapse in some paper grades. High prices have seen local authorities and commercial organisations such as supermarkets and printers generating cash by selling paper and packaging for recycling, but they face this income being reduced.

The CPI said ministers and the government-funded Waste and Resources Action Plan (Wrap) should draw lessons from the price fall, not least over the "gold plating" of recycling targets. "Before introducing higher and higher recycling targets, UK governments must ask themselves if there are solid, sustainable markets to accommodate reaching them," it said.

The government's advisory committee on packaging is due to report on the impact of the price slump today.

A spokeswoman for the Environment Department, Defra, said: "Commodity prices go up as well as down and, while we will continue to monitor the situation closely, we remain committed to our recycling and landfill targets. Defra will support the Environment Agency in taking a sensible approach to the enforcement of maximum storage limits at permitted and exempt waste sites, where this does not compromise environmental protection."

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New tsunami system in Indonesia

Lucy Williamson, BBC News 11 Nov 08;

Tsunami warning system launched

Indonesia has launched a new tsunami early warning system, designed to give people in coastal areas enough time to escape tsunamis before they reach land.

But experts involved in setting up the system admit that some areas of the country, including the province of Aceh, are not fully protected by it.

The project is a direct result of the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami which hit the country in 2004.

A quarter of a million people died, more than half of them in Aceh.

'Time delay'

The new early warning system was launched in Jakarta by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

But Dr Lauterjung, a spokesman for the German government which is assisting in the programme, said that deep sea buoys - the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (Dart) system - responsible for detecting changes in sea levels had not yet been installed around the islands of Bali, Flores and the northern part of Sumatra, which includes Aceh, meaning there would be a "time delay" in predicting a tsunami.



Around a third of the seismographs stipulated in the government's plan are also not yet in place.

And Dr Sri Woro, the head of Indonesia's meteorological agency, said there were still what she called "infrastructure problems" in making the network of sensors and stations work smoothly together.

Tuesday's ceremony marked the formal launch of the system, which is expected to be fully completed by 2010, though much of it is already operational.

Since the Indian Ocean tsunami four years ago, Indonesia has experienced two other waves along its Javan and Sumatran coastlines.

The last of these, in September last year, was successfully predicted by the new system.

The new system relies on three main parts: first, seismographs warn of any earthquakes that are likely to trigger a tsunami, then satellites monitor changes in the earth's crust, while tide gauges and deep-sea buoys measure whether sea levels are actually changing as a result.

Indonesia sits at the meeting point of three of the earth's tectonic plates and almost 60% of its vast coastline is at risk of tsunamis.

The new network has been built with the help of several foreign donors, including Germany, Japan and China.

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World Needs a Backup Plan for Climate Change

LiveScience.com 11 Nov 08;

World leaders need an emergency backup plan to stave off catastrophic climate change if cuts in greenhouse gas emissions don't work, says climate scientist Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution in Washington, D.C.

"We need a climate engineering research and development plan, in addition to strong measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," Caldeira said in testimony to the British Parliament yesterday. "Prudence demands that we consider what we might do in the face of unacceptable climate damage, which could occur despite our best efforts to rein in greenhouse gas emissions."

Among the wild ideas that have been floated:

* Inject dust or sulfur into the atmosphere to scatter sunlight.
* Construct a "sun shade" with an artificial ring of small particles or a spacecraft that would block some of the sun's rays.
* Inject iron into oceans to stimulate the growth of plankton, which consume carbon dioxide.
* Bury carbon underground to sequester it for millennia.

Critics question the effectiveness of these schemes and worry that tampering with the Earth's systems would create as many problems as they solve, according to a statement from the Carnegie Institution. "But others warn that currently accelerating carbon emissions may push the planet's climate system to a tipping point, making drastic measures necessary to prevent an environmental calamity," it states.

"Science is needed to address critical questions, among them: How effective would various climate engineering proposals be at achieving their climate goals? What unintended outcomes might result? How might these unintended outcomes affect both human and natural systems?" Caldeira said. "Engineering is needed both to build deployable systems and to keep the science focused on what's technically feasible."

Caldeira thinks university researchers should drive the effort to make a backup plan.

"A climate engineering research plan should be built around important questions rather than preconceived answers," he advised the committee. "It should anticipate and embrace innovation and recognize that a portfolio of divergent but defensible paths is most likely to reveal a successful path forward; we should be wary of assuming that we've already thought of the most promising approaches or the most important unintended consequences."

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Big Global Investors Urge Action On Climate Change

PlanetArk 12 Nov 08;

WASHINGTON - Global institutional investors holding more than $6 trillion in assets pushed policymakers on Tuesday to quickly hash out a binding agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions and promote clean technology.

More than 130 big investors, including London Pensions Fund Authority, want countries to agree to reduce the climate- warming emissions by 50 percent to 80 percent by 2050.

Those numbers are in line with global warming policy favoured by US President-elect Barack Obama, who supports an 80 percent reduction in carbon emissions by mid-century.

The investors also want policymakers to set long and medium term emission reduction targets for developed countries and to provide for an expanded and more liquid global carbon market.

Already big US investors, such as the California Public Employees' Retirement System, with $185.6 billion of assets under management, have been calling for legislation to promote new and existing clean technologies.

They have also called on the US Securities and Exchange Commission to force publicly traded companies to disclose climate-related risks along with other factors that affect their business.

"As institutional investors, we are concerned with the risks presented by climate change to the global economy and to our diversified portfolios," said Mike Taylor, chief executive of London Pensions Fund Authority. "We are ... urging world leaders to implement strong and effective policies to support us in allocating capital towards low carbon investments."

The group of global investors want countries to sign on to a new binding agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol climate pact, which set binding targets for industrialised countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The European Union is aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent by 2020 and increase the share of wind, solar, hydro, wave power and biofuels in their energy mix by the same date.

The United States is alone among major industrialized countries in rejecting the Kyoto Protocol, but is participating in discussions to craft a follow-up global agreement.

"It is time to put an agreement in place where the United States is involved," said Mindy Lubber, the president of Ceres, a coalition of investors and environmental groups working on climate change issues.

The global group of investors is hoping its voice is heard ahead of a December climate change convention in Poland.

(Reporting by Rachelle Younglai; Editing by Andre Grenon)

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Clean energy: Pressure on Asia will grow

Michael Richardson, Straits Times 12 Nov 08;

UNITED States President-elect Barack Obama is coming to power on a torrent of promises and high expectations.

Yet as recession bites deeper in the world's biggest economy, investment slumps, jobs are lost, and tax revenues fall, the US budget deficit is growing ever larger. It is expected to more than double next year to around US$1 trillion (S$1.5 trillion).

Will Mr Obama be able to deliver on his expensive campaign promises or will he have to phase them in? The outline of his priorities that has emerged in recent days is important for Asia.

His top priority, of course, will be an economic recovery programme. But he has also said the US cannot afford to wait on moving forward on other key priorities, 'including clean energy, health care, education and tax relief for middle-class families'.

Clean energy means reducing US dependence on oil and boosting renewable energy. With less than 5 per cent of the world's population, the US consumes about 25 per cent of the world's oil.

Recent high prices for oil, followed by the economic crisis, have reduced oil use in America. If the Obama programme is successful, there may be less US demand for the commodity when global growth resumes, keeping the price lower for Asian oil importers.

But that will accentuate the increasingly prominent role of big emerging economies in general, and those in Asia in particular, as sources of global warming gases. These come chiefly from burning fossil fuels, and from clearing forests for farming. Recent studies have concluded that China has overtaken the US as the largest emitter of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. If the US re-engages constructively in international negotiations on climate change, as Mr Obama has promised, the pressure will grow on all countries, not just developed economies, to control their emissions.

Alone among advanced economies, the Bush administration had refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol to limit greenhouse gases, arguing that it would hurt the US economy and that it unfairly excluded big developing country emitters such as China and India. Now that a successor treaty is being negotiated to replace Kyoto when it expires in 2012, US participation is seen as key to a comprehensive global deal.

But what will the US undertake to do and what will it expect from its negotiating partners? Mr Obama says he wants to bring in a market-based cap-and-trade system to cut carbon emissions by the amount scientists say is necessary to prevent potentially catastrophic climate change: 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. He also says his administration will establish strong annual reduction targets in the US and implement a programme to bring emissions back to 1990 levels by 2020.

To build a clean energy future, he says, his administration will invest US$150 billion to expand wind, solar, geothermal and other renewable power in the 10 years from 2009. The aim is to create five million new 'green' jobs and require 25 per cent of US electricity to come from renewable sources by 2025, while promoting energy efficiency and conservation.

To try to hasten an international consensus on how to combat climate change and share the costs, Mr Obama says he will create a global energy forum of the largest greenhouse gas emitters, consisting of the Group of Eight countries plus Brazil, China, Mexico and South Africa.

Mr Jason Grumet, the President- elect's energy and climate change adviser, explained last month that the US had to 'move quickly domestically so we can get back in the game internationally. We cannot have a meaningful impact on the international discussion until we develop a meaningful domestic consensus'.

However, putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions and making polluting companies pay would add costs to the economy and is likely to be unpopular. While renewable power may one day compete with coal, gas and nuclear power, it is currently more costly and less reliable.

Meanwhile, China and other developing countries expect substantial aid from the developed world if they are to curb emissions without sacrificing economic growth.

At a conference in Beijing last weekend, Chinese officials said wealthy nations should divert up to 1 per cent of their gross domestic product to pay for clean technology transfers and help the Third World cope with damage caused by climate change. This would amount to about US$284 billion a year if member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development paid up, based on the size of their economies last year.

As always, the devil is in the details.

The writer is an energy and security specialist at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

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2008 Set To Be About 10th Warmest Year - Expert

Alister Doyle, PlanetArk 12 Nov 08;

OSLO - This year is on track to be about the 10th warmest globally since records began in 1850 but gaps in Arctic data mean the world may be slightly underestimating global warming, a leading scientist said on Tuesday.

A natural cooling of the Pacific Ocean known as La Nina kept a lid on temperatures in 2008 despite an underlying warming trend, said Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in England.

"This year is about 10th," he told Reuters in a telephone interview. "La Nina in the Pacific lasted longer than we envisaged."

Jones's unit is one of the main sources of global climate data for the United Nations.

The warmest year on record was 1998, followed by 2005 and 2003, with other years this century closely bunched. Tenth place would make 2008 the least warm since 1999.

The update marginally cools an estimate from January, when Jones's unit and the British Met Office (Britain's meteorological service) estimated that 2008 would be "another top 10 year", near the bottom of the ranking.

The UN Climate Panel says human emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels, are blanketing the planet. Rising temperatures will bring more floods, heatwaves, more powerful storms and rising sea levels, it says.

Jones said temperature records may fractionally underestimate warming because of gaps in measurements in the Arctic for 1961-90, the benchmark years for judging change, and problems in verifying ocean temperatures.

"The world is probably a little warmer than we are measuring," he said.


ICE THAWS

Arctic sea ice shrank to a record low in summer in 2007 and almost matched the low again in 2008. UN studies say the region may be warming twice as fast as the world average.

Ships are travelling more often in the Arctic and "now there are temperature measurements coming back. But we can't use the data because we don't have the 1961-90 averages", he said.

He said scientists suspected that ocean temperature measurements from buoys, widely deployed since about 1990, underestimated temperature rises perhaps by up to a 0.05 Celsius (0.08 Fahrenheit), compared to previous ship-based readings.

"There's nothing wrong with the land measurements but we might be underestimating the oceans," he said.

Scientists were now scouring records of ships over the past 15 years to try to pin down when they were close to buoys. That would let them compare thermometer readings and see if there was a consistent mismatch.

"It's an awkward thing to try to find them when they were close together," Jones said, adding that the hopes the findings will be published in 2009.

Sceptics about a human cause of global warming say climate change has stopped because 1998 was the warmest year. But Jones said 1998 was warmed by a shift in the Pacific Ocean known as El Nino, the opposite of the La Nina effect.

"1998 was the anomalous year. if you take out the El Nino and La Nina effects we are still warming," he said.

Natural variations such as El Nino or volcanic eruptions that dim the sun accounted for swings of about 0.2 C a year, while global warming was adding about that much per decade.

Editing by Michael Roddy)

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