Honeybees under attack on all fronts

Debora MacKenzie, New Scientist 16 Feb 09;

THE world's honeybees appear to be dying off in horrifying numbers, and now consensus is starting to emerge on the reason why: it seems there is no one cause. Infections, lack of food, pesticides and breeding - none catastrophic on their own - are having a synergistic effect, pushing bee survival to a lethal tipping point. A somewhat anti-climactic conclusion it may be, but appreciating this complexity - and realising there will be no magic bullet - may be the key to saving the insects.

A third of our food relies on bees for pollination. Both the US and UK report losing a third of their bees last year. Other European countries have seen major die-offs too: Italy, for example, said it lost nearly half its bees last year. The deaths are now spreading to Asia, with reports in India and suspected cases in China.

But while individual "sub-lethal stresses" such as infections are implicated, we know little about how they add together. The situation should become clearer in the next few years as the US government, the EU and others are pouring money into bee research. The UK, for example, has doubled its annual research budget, allocating £400,000 a year for the next five years.

On top of that, the UK National Bee Unit will get £2.3 million to map the problem. This money is urgently needed, says Peter Neumann of the Swiss Bee Research Centre in Berne, who runs COLLOSS, a network of researchers studying colony loss in 36 countries. "We don't have the data to assess the situation in Europe, never mind the world," he says.

The main stress facing bees is the varroa mite, a parasite from Siberia that has now spread everywhere but Australia. Mite infestations steeply reduce bees' resistance to viral infection. Worryingly, the mites are developing resistance to the pesticides used to control them, forcing beekeepers to use methods that are often less effective.

French and German beekeepers blame their losses on insecticides called neonicotinoids - but France banned them 10 years ago and its bees are still dying. Neumann suspects a wider problem, citing experiments showing that agricultural chemicals that are safe for bees when used alone are lethal in combination. "Farmers increasingly combine sprays," he says. They also leave few flowering weeds, depriving bees of essential nutrients from different kinds of pollen, he adds.

Meanwhile viruses may cause a syndrome dubbed colony collapse disorder (CCD) in the US, in which adult bees abandon their hive, leaving the healthy queen and young bees to die. Diana Cox-Foster of Penn State University in University Park, where the syndrome was first identified, says viruses, including one called IAPV, duplicate the symptoms of CCD in her greenhouse studies. There is no IAPV or CCD in the UK, says Mike Brown of the National Bee Unit, yet bees are still dying.

At the root of the vulnerability to these stresses could be the way breeding has affected the bees' genetic make-up. By being highly selected for calmness and honey production, honeybees have lost other useful characteristics, says Francis Ratnieks of the University of Sussex, UK. In research to be published in the journal Heredity, he describes a way to breed for "hygienic" bees that, unlike most commercial bees, clear out infected young and can resist varroa mites.

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Saving Jaguars, Tigers Can Prevent Human Diseases?

Ker Than, National Geographic News 16 Feb 09;

Jaguars and other big cats can protect humans from the rise of future pandemics akin to HIV and bird flu.

That's the message freshly trained "doctor conservationists" will be taking into the field as part of a new collaboration between a wildlife-protection nonprofit and a teaching hospital.

In Central and South America, jaguars are often labeled as "cattle killers" and are slaughtered on sight. The species is also at risk of declining genetic health as its habitat contracts and populations are cut off from each other.

"If the animals are forced to stay instead of travel, that can lead to a loss of fitness and create a cascade down the health ladder," said Alan Rabinowitz, president and CEO of the big-cat conservation group Panthera.

"Once that cascade has been set off, it has been shown through data to directly link to increases in disease among neighboring human populations."

Curing and Educating

A decline in top-level predators such as the jaguar can lead to a boom in prey populations that encourages the spread of disease.

Some of those diseases can then become zoonotic, jumping from animals to humans. (Read related news about decoding deadly variants of the bird flu virus.)

HIV, West Nile virus, and avian influenza, for example, are "reemerging diseases which have always been in the environment, but [until recently] they've been kept in check and didn't bleed over into human populations," Rabinowitz said.

As part of its broader efforts to protect big cats, New York-based Panthera has partnered with the Mount Sinai Medical Center to train doctors in the human-health benefits of saving the animals.

"The program is being formulated now, but we have high hopes for it," said Paul Klotman, chair of Mount Sinai's Samuel Bronfman Department of Medicine.

Cat experts from Panthera will teach at the hospital, and medical students will have opportunities to administer health care in parts of the world where humans and wildlife often live under an uneasy truce.

A major goal of the new program is to give students a deeper understanding about the links between animal and human diseases, said Mary Klotman, director of Mount Sinais Global Health and Emerging Pathogens Institute.

"I think what we're doing is to try and introduce the concept more broadly into medical education," Klotman said, "so that it's not just the high-level investigators that understand this interaction."

Jaguar Network

Armed with this unique training, the program's doctor-conservationists will be providing an incentive for local people to tolerate jaguars, Panthera's Rabinowitz said.

"Almost all of the local communities that we interview and ask, What do you need?, two of the top answers have been, Better education for my children and better health for my family," he said.

"The affiliation with Mount Sinai helps with the health part."

The work should boost efforts to establish so-called genetic corridors, paths of sheltered habitat that cross through human-populated areas to connect existing wildlife preserves. (Read more about creating safe passage for jaguars in National Geographic magazine.)

Panthera's Jaguar Corridor Initiative would link approximately 90 distinct jaguar populations through a network of paths in Central and South America.

The organizations Tiger Corridor Initiative will attempt to do the same thing in Southeast Asia.

"A genetic corridor can look like a complete human landscape," Rabinowitz said.

"But if one jaguar or tiger can make it through that landscape to the next viable population, that single animal is enough to maintain the genetic diversity of the species as a whole."

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Rise in Malaria Rates, Drug Resistance Tied to Climate

At AAAS, a researcher describes how treating more people for the mosquito-borne parasite could lead to more resistance to drugs

Andrew McGlashen, Scientific American 16 Feb 09;

CHICAGO – Warmer temperatures are at least partly to blame for a surge in malaria in East Africa and the increase in drug-resistant strains of the disease, according to a University of Michigan researcher.

The malaria parasite is highly sensitive to changes in temperature, and even subtle warming can dramatically increase populations of the mosquitoes that transmit the disease, said ecologist Mercedes Pascual.

Some scientists have argued that climate is not involved in the increasing highland epidemics. Instead, they say, adaptations in the parasite that make it resistant to anti-malarial drugs are the key drivers.

But Pascual said that this "either-or" view is misguided and improperly lets global warming off the hook.

"I think that’s a useless discussion," she said.

More likely, Pascual said, the two work in tandem to an effect greater than the sum of their parts, with rising temperatures leading to faster development of drug resistance.

"The literature has this controversy of 'Is it climate or is it drug resistance?' and drug resistance is taken as evidence that we don’t need to invoke climate change," she added.

No research has shown this synergy, but Pascual said it makes theoretical sense.

By making conditions favorable for mosquitoes, "warmer temperatures increase transmission, so you’re going to increase the number of people you treat," she said. And past research has shown a threshold at which treating more cases leads to a higher incidence of drug resistance, making the disease difficult to treat and contain.

Malaria kills 3,000 people each day in Africa, and outbreaks on the continent aren't limited to the eastern highlands. Climate change will cause the disease to migrate away from low latitudes, scientists say. That could rid some areas of outbreaks, but could cause others in regions whose inhabitants haven't developed any immunity.

The specifics of how malaria's climate-forced migration will affect outbreaks are largely unknown, but it's already underway, said Christopher Thomas of Aberystwyth University in the U.K.

"It’s now," he said. "The change isn’t coming at the end of the century – it's happening right now."

Douglas Fischer is editor of the Daily Climate. This article originally appeared at The Daily Climate, the climate change news source published by Environmental Health Sciences, a nonprofit media company.

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No Suspects Yet in Riau Forest Fires

Fidelis E. Satriastanti, Jakarta Globe 17 Feb 09;

The State Ministry for the Environment said on Monday that it still had no suspects in connection with the fires that have ravaged forests in Riau Province, despite allegations that the fires were deliberately set by private forestry firms.

Massive forest fires have been burning in industrial timber estates in the districts of Indragiri Hulu, Indragiri Hilir, Siak and Pelalawan since January, and the local government’s efforts to contain the flames have so far failed.

“We are still questioning a number of people,” said Ilyas Asaad, the deputy minister for environmental compliance. “But we do not have any suspects yet.”

Ilyas refused to name the people being questioned, but claimed that investigations were on the right track.

“We have been conducting field investigations and we have come to the conclusion that the fires were caused by human activities,” he said.

Local forestry firms are known to use fires to reduce forest cover in order to expand the area available for palm oil, wood pulp and rubber plantations.

According to the 1997 Law on Environmental Management, a party that deliberately causes environmental damage could face a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison and a Rp 500 million ($42,500) fine.

However, Johny Mundung, executive director of the Riau branch of the Indonesian Forum for the Environment, or Walhi, said that the government had never been serious about dealing with the annual forest fires that cause heavy smoke pollution on Sumatra Island and in neighboring Malaysia and Singapore.

“The truth is the local government has not taken any significant legal approach to settle this matter once and for all,” he said.

Johny also criticized the local government for setting aside part of its yearly budget to combat the fires.

“It is ridiculous that they even allocate a budget for that every year,” he said. “That means they see the forest fires as some sort of annual project that they can look forward to.”

Johny said that more than 42,000 hectares of land, mostly peatland and rubber plantations, were affected by the fires this week, up from 32,000 hectares last week.

“The districts are affected by forest fires every year because they are dominated by peatland and rubber plantation areas,” he said.

“The investigators should investigate the companies that manage the land if they want to learn who started the fires.”

Johny also refuted a district head’s claim that the fires were not man-made.

“There is no way that the fires were induced by natural causes,” he said.

He said the haze from the forest fires was causing health problems among residents, many of whom have complained of vision-related problems and breathing difficulties.

According to the Pekanbaru office of the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency, or BMG, 29 areas in Riau Province are at risk of being overrun by the flames.

The at-risk areas are also known as “hot spots.”

Meanwhile, the state-run Antara news agency reported that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite showed that there were 34 hot spots in the province.

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Indonesia To End Freeze On Peatlands For Plantations

PlanetArk 17 Feb 09;

JAKARTA - Indonesia will open up peatland forests for plantation crops such as palm oil after freezing new permits for more than a year, an agriculture ministry official said on Monday, in a move that has alarmed green groups.

Achmad Mangga Barani, director general for plantations at the ministry, said that the government was lifting the moratorium brought in December, 2007, after a study in order to boost the welfare of local people.

"In principle, we will allow the use of peatlands for plantations under a stricter criteria and a very limited scale," he said.

Green groups had urged the government to maintain a freeze of oil palm plantations in peatlands to combat climate change.

Indonesia's remaining peatland forests are one of the world's largest stores of carbon, holding around 37.8 billion tonnes, according to Greenpeace.

A report sponsored by the World Bank and Britain's Department for International Development says up to 84 percent of Indonesia's carbon emissions come from deforestation, forest fires and peatland degradation.

Barani said the government had discussed the new decree with environmental groups.

"We think it is a crazy proposal," Martin Baker, communications manager at Greenpeace International in Asia, said.

Bustar Maitar, forest campaigner for Greenpeace, said the decree appeared to be setting stricter criteria after the study, but he said the results had not been shared with the group.

"We understand that there was a study and the government promised to discuss with us the result of the study but we have never seen the result," said Maitar.

Barani said details of the new ministerial decree were due to be released on Tuesday.

Indonesia, the world's biggest producer of crude palm oil, expects palm oil output to rise about 5 percent to 19.7 million tonnes this year, against 18.7 million tonnes in 2008.

(Reporting by Aloysius Bhui; Editing by Ed Davies)

Govt to allow peatland plantations
Adianto P. Simamora Jakarta Post 13 Feb 09;

The Agriculture Ministry will issue a decree to allow businesses to dig up the country’s millions of hectares of peatland for oil palm plantations.

Gatot Irianto, the ministry’s head of research and development, said his office was currently drafting a ministerial decree that would explain in detail the mechanism to turn the peatland areas into oil palm plantations, a move that many say will further damage the country’s environment.

“We still need land for oil palm plantations. We must be honest: the sector has been the main driver for the people’s economy,” he said Thursday on the sidelines of a discussion about adaptation in agriculture, organized by the National Commission on Climate Change.

The draft decree is expected to go into force this year.

“We’ve discussed the draft with stakeholders, including hard-line activists, to convince them that converting peatland is safe,” he said.

“We promise to promote eco-friendly management to ward off complaints from overseas buyers and international communities.”

Indonesia is currently the world’s largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer, and is expected to produce about 19.5 million tons this year.

Overseas buyers, however, have complained about Indonesia’s CPO products, saying they are produced at the expense of the environment.

Activists point to the massive expansions of plantations, including in peatlands, for the deaths of large numbers of orangutans in Kalimantan and Sumatra and for releasing huge amounts of carbon emissions into the atmosphere.

Indonesia has about 20 million hectares of dense, black tropical peat swamps — formed when vegetation rots — that are natural carbon storage sinks.

A hectare of peatland can store between 3,400 and 4,000 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2), but emits a much larger amount when burned.

Asked about the contribution to global warming, Gatot said trees planted in peatlands would absorb greenhouse gas emissions.

“The peatland will produce emissions only in the opening of the land, but this will be reabsorbed after new trees are planted,” he said.

However, a World Bank report from 2007 showed Indonesia was the world’s third biggest carbon emitter after the US and China, thanks mainly to the burning of peatlands.

A Wetlands International report from 2006 said Indonesia’s peatlands emitted around 2 billion
tons of CO2 a year, far higher than the country’s emissions from energy, agriculture and waste,
which together amount to only 451 million tons.

The country would have ranked 20th in the global carbon emitter list if emissions from peatlands were not counted.

The ministerial decree is being drafted at a time when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is still preparing a decree on peatland management in an effort to help combat global warming.

The draft of the presidential decree, drawn up in 2007, calls for tightened supervision on the use of peatlands across the country.

Activists denounce plan to allow palm oil firms in peatlands
Adianto P. Simamora, The Jakarta Post 16 Feb 09;

Environmental activists have mounted a challenge against the government’s plan to allow palm oil companies to set up plantations in the country’s remaining peatlands.

Greenpeace Southeast Asia says the plan runs counter to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s promise to halve emissions from the forestry sector by 2009. The President made the pledge during the climate change conference in Bali in 2007 and at the G7 summit in Hokkaido, Japan, last year.

“Opening up peatlands would cause huge carbon emissions into the atmosphere that can’t be compensated for, including by oil palm trees,” Greenpeace forest campaigner Yuyun Indradi told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.

He called on Yudhoyono to take action to halt the conversion of peatlands, or risk the failure of efforts to tackle climate change.

“The government needs to protect the remaining peatlands and forests if we are to slow down climate change and protect the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities and biodiversity,” he said.

The government has promised to cut emissions, including from the forestry sector, by 50 percent in 2009, 75 percent in 2012, and 95 percent in 2025.

The National Action Plan on mitigation and adaptation on climate change revealed the country’s agriculture sector contributed up to 96.42 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2005.

The Agriculture Ministry said it would issue a decree this year allowing businesses to open up peatlands for oil palm plantations, as part of efforts to boost the country’s crude palm oil (CPO) production.

Ecosys, a European-based institute dealing with energy, carbon and biofuel issues, estimates that peatlands planted with oil palms would emit about 0.46 kilograms of CO2 per megajoule (MJ).

Indonesia has about 20 million hectares of dense, black tropical peat swamps that are natural carbon storage sinks.

Fitrian Ardiansyah, head of WWF Indonesia’s climate change and energy program, said the government should prioritize exploiting millions of hectares of idle land if it wanted to expand the CPO business.

“We currently have more than 7 million hectares of idle land. Why does the government not utilize this before opening up forests or peatlands?” he said.

Demand for CPO has risen globally, spurred on by the development of the biofuel industry.
However, scientists warn the use of crop-based biofuels could speed up rather than slow down global warming, by fueling the destruction of rainforests.

Once heralded as the answer to oil, biofuels have become increasingly controversial because of their impact on food prices and the amount of energy it takes to produce them.

They may also be responsible for pumping far more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than they could possibly save as a replacement for fossil fuels, according to a study released Saturday.

“If we run our cars on biofuels produced in the tropics, chances will be good that we are effectively burning rainforests in our gas tanks,” Holly Gibbs, of Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment, was quoted as saying by AFP.

Gibbs studied satellite photos of the tropics from 1980 to 2000, and found that half of new farmland came from intact rainforests, with another 30 percent from disturbed forests.

“When trees are cut down to make room for new farmland, they are usually burned, sending their stored carbon into the atmosphere as CO2,” Gibbs said.

For high-yield crops like sugarcane, it would take 40 to 120 years to pay back this carbon debt.

For lower yield crops like corn or soybeans, it would take 300 to 1,500 years, she told reporters at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

“Biofuels have caused alarm because of how quickly production has been growing: global ethanol production increased by four times and biodiesel by 10 times between 2000 and 2007,” she said.

“Moreover, agricultural subsidies in Indonesia and in the United States are providing added incentives to increase production of these crops.”

Gibbs estimated that anywhere from a third to two-thirds of recent deforestation could be as a result of the increased demand for biofuels, but added an increased demand for food and feed also played a major role.

Much of the expansion of cropland in response to growing demand and rising prices is occurring in the tropics, where there is an abundance of arable land and an ideal growing climate for biofuel crops like sugarcane, soybeans and oil palms.

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IUCN statement on Australian fires

IUCN website 13 Feb 09;

It is tempting to jump to the conclusion that the disastrous fires are linked to climate change.

IUCN extends its sympathies to those who have suffered from the extreme fires in south-eastern Australia, especially to those who have lost family, friends and their homes.

South-eastern Australia ranks with southern France and southern California (USA) as being the areas most prone areas to severe risk of harmful fires. Fires are part of the Australian environment and have been a key factor in forming many of the unique ecosystems of the country. At the same time, fires that occur during periods of extreme weather can have devastating impact on human communities, such as those witnessed in Victoria in the past few days.

The death toll of the fires in Victoria, Australia is expected to exceed 200. More than 3,000 km2 has been burnt and over 900 houses destroyed. Immense damage to farmland and natural areas will escalate the damage bill and take years to restore. Fires are part of the Australian landscape and Victoria has one of the world’s best organized and equipped fire fighting forces. The long period of exceptionally high temperatures and wind combine to create conditions where extreme fires overwhelm fire-fighting capacity.
Understanding the direct and underlying causes of fires, their relationship to how ecosystems are managed and their associated societal and economic costs is essential to addressing fire risks in a systematic fashion.

It is tempting to jump to the conclusion that the disastrous fires are linked to climate change. Recent reports from the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) suggest that global warming is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of fire-weather, which in turn would alter the distribution and composition of ecosystems, change water yields from catchments, increase damage to property and the risk of injury and death to humans, amongst other impacts. However, whether or not climate change is a factor in the recent fires is less important than supporting the efforts of the government and local communities to manage local ecosystems and plan land use and fire management in a way that anticipates severe fires as a fact of life.

IUCN encourages its members and Commission members to support the efforts of the Victorian government to assist the communities devastated by the fires to rebuild their lives and restore damaged property and ecosystems.

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World's Largest Wetland Threatened In Brazil

Raymond Colitt, PlanetArk 17 Feb 09;

CORUMBA - Jaguars still roam the world's largest wetland and endangered Hyacinth Macaws nest in its trees but advancing farms and industries are destroying Brazil's Pantanal region at an alarming rate.

The degradation of the landlocked river delta on the upper Paraguay River which straddles Brazil's borders with Bolivia and Paraguay is a reminder of how economic progress can cause large-scale environmental damage.

"It's a type of Noah's Ark but it risks running aground," biologist and tourist guide Elder Brandao de Oliveira says of the Pantanal.

Brazil's exports of beef, iron and to a lesser extent soy -- the main products from the Pantanal -- have rocketed in recent years, driven largely by global demand.

Less well-known than the Amazon rain forest, the Pantanal is larger than England and harbors a huge fresh water reserve and extraordinary wildlife, ranging from 220-pound (100-kg) jaguars to giant otters that mingle in water holes packed with nine-foot (3-metre) caimans.

The world's largest freshwater wetland, it is almost 10 times the size of Florida's Everglades.

Of the Pantanal's 650 bird species, the largest has a wingspan of nearly 3 metres and the smallest weighs only 2 grams (0.07 ounce).

During the rainy season the water level rises by as much as five metres, creating a mosaic of dark-brown swamps with islands of shrubs and tall standing tropical trees. When the water first hits dry soil it loses oxygen and kills schools of fish as part of a nose-wrenching natural life cycle.

A melting pot for various ecosystems, the Pantanal has the greatest concentration of fauna in the Americas, according to The Nature Conservancy, a global environmental advocacy group.

But some species are in danger of disappearing, including the long-snouted giant anteater, which claws into anthills and flicks its two-foot tongue up to 160 times per minute to quickly gobble up stinging ants.

The giant armadillo and maned wolf are also on the list of endangered species because of their falling numbers.

Visitors to the Pantanal marvel at the idyllic scenery and the proximity and abundance of wildlife.

"I hadn't heard about it before, it's a bird-lovers' paradise," said Alkis Ieromonachou, a Cypriot tourist, eyeing a group of giant Jabiru storks from the deck of a bungalow.

The impact of modern farming is obvious even in the tourist resort, however, as a large herd of cattle wanders through the swamp, squashing floating lily pads.

Cattle ranchers cut trees on higher elevations and sow pasture in the lowlands, which are flooded for months. Many say they have been here for decades and can't be expected to abandon the land and their livelihood.

"True, deforestation is a problem but 50 years ago when it began nobody thought of these things," said Ademar Silva, head of the local association of farmers and cattle ranchers. "The government needs not only to punish bad behaviour but promote new technology with financial incentives."

ECONOMIC PRESSURES

Brazil's beef exports have more than tripled in five years to $5 billion in 2008, with pasture often replacing forests. Experts say improving productivity, from currently around one head of cattle per hectare (2.5 acres), could prevent much deforestation.

"We're using our natural resources fast and inefficiently," said environmental economist Andre Carvalho at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, or FGV.

The environmental group Conservation International says 63 percent of the forest in elevated regions of the Pantanal and 17 percent in lowland regions have been destroyed.

Under a federal law dating back to 1965, ranchers can clear up to 80 percent of the forest on their property. Parks and protected areas make up only a small fraction of the Pantanal, and the rest is largely unprotected.

Demand for charcoal from Brazilian pig iron smelters has accelerated deforestation, environmentalists say.

"We set up shop precisely to use wood from the advancing agricultural frontier," said Vitor Feitosa, operations director for MMX, a smelter located in the Pantanal town Corumba and owned by Brazilian billionaire Ike Batista.

Brazil's pig iron exports have grown sixfold to $3.14 billion since 2003. Around 1.5 million hectares (3.7 million acres) of native forest are lost annually in Mato Grosso do Sul state, home to much of the Pantanal, an FGV study showed.

Marcos Brito, head of a charcoal manufacturers group with 15,000 employees in the state, claims most producers use wood cut and discarded by ranchers. But Alessandro Menezes, an activist with the environmental group ECOA, says they clear forests in exchange for the wood.

After being fined several times, MMX agreed not to buy Pantanal charcoal, but most smelters in the state still do.

Erosion resulting from deforestation has created large sandbanks on tributaries to the Paraguay river, such as the Taquari and Rio Negro, making them partially unnavigable.

"Rivers will change course, lakes appear or disappear -- the size and shape of the Pantanal will change," said Sandro Menezes, manager of Conservation International's Pantanal project. "It's very probable that local flora and fauna will become extinct."

Already, there are signs that runoff water from nearby farms is altering the ecosystem's delicate balance.

"We see trees flower and birds breed earlier -- we believe it's because of fertilizers in the water," said de Oliveira.

The global financial crisis has hit demand for steel and beef and temporarily eased pressure on the Pantanal as smelters and farmers put expansion plans on halt. But most environmentalists agree the next commodity boom could cause irreversible damage.

"Now is the time for stricter laws, environmental education and corporate citizenship," said Ricardo Melo, environmental public prosecutor in Corumba. "Economic development here is inevitable; we need to make it sustainable."

(Editing by Kieran Murray and Alan Elsner)

Read more!

Amazon dieback 'overstated'

James Painter, BBC News 16 Feb 09;

A study by a group of UK-based scientists suggests that the Amazon rainforest may be less vulnerable to severe drying as a result of global warming than previously thought.

However, the scientists warn that the rapid degradation of the rainforest known as "dieback" caused by human-induced climate change remains a "distinct possibility" this century.

For the first time, the scientists compared the simulations of 19 global climate models with real-life climate observations. Their work is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) journal.

Their main conclusions are that:

• almost all the climate models underestimated the current amount of Amazonian rainfall, because they are unable to capture the peculiarity of the geography of South America.

• sections of rainforest in the eastern part of the Amazon, which is currently wet all year round, are likely to become "seasonal forests" which have a wet and a dry season.

• but there will probably still be enough rainfall during the year not to turn it into savannah (dry, flat grassland).

• the Western part of Amazonia is likely to keep a climate and pattern of rainfall conductive to maintaining a rainforest, although the drier margins in the north and south may not.

Other projections, including those of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have suggested that the eastern part of the Amazon could gradually be replaced by savannah.

This new study warns that even though these seasonal forests may be more resilient to occasional drought, they will be more vulnerable to fires.

Parts of the eastern region of rainforest will become tinderboxes, the study says, if deforestation, logging and the widespread use of fire is not controlled.

Last year, the dieback of the Amazonian rainforest was described by a group of international scientists as one of the nine potential "tipping points" in the Earth's climate system that lead to changes that can be sudden and dramatic rather than gradual.

This new study warns that the best way of minimising the risk of Amazon dieback was to control global greenhouse gas emissions. But it adds that government action is also needed.

"Forest protection within this area could play a major role in minimising the prospects of major dieback, whilst also contributing to tackling global climate change," said lead author Professor Yadvinder Malhi from the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford.

"Forest cover can help to maintain local rainfall in the dry season, limit the spread of fires and stop surface temperatures rising too high."

Conserving tropical rainforests is seen by many as a promising way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Deforestation is estimated to be responsible for nearly 20% of such emissions every year.

Last August the Brazilian government launched an international fund to protect the rainforest and help to combat climate change, which intends to raise more than US$20bn (£14bn) by 2021.

The government also aims to reduce deforestation by 70% over the next 10 years.

"Even with sufficient funds and will power, the implementation of biosphere management on such a scale will be a substantial challenge," say the authors of the new study.

"Understanding the social, political and economic context will be critically important."

Read more!

Hamburgers are the Hummers of food in global warming: scientists

Mira Oberman Yahoo News 16 Feb 09;

CHICAGO (AFP) – When it comes to global warming, hamburgers are the Hummers of food, scientists say.

Simply switching from steak to salad could cut as much carbon as leaving the car at home a couple days a week.

That's because beef is such an incredibly inefficient food to produce and cows release so much harmful methane into the atmosphere, said Nathan Pelletier of Dalhousie University in Canada.

Pelletier is one of a growing number of scientists studying the environmental costs of food from field to plate.

By looking at everything from how much grain a cow eats before it is ready for slaughter to the emissions released by manure, they are getting a clearer idea of the true costs of food.

The livestock sector is estimated to account for 18 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and beef is the biggest culprit.

Even though beef only accounts for 30 percent of meat consumption in the developed world it's responsible for 78 percent of the emissions, Pelletier said Sunday at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

That's because a single kilogram of beef produces 16 kilograms carbon dioxide equivalent emissions: four times higher than pork and more than ten times as much as a kilogram of poultry, Pelletier said.

If people were to simply switch from beef to chicken, emissions would be cut by 70 percent, Pelletier said.

Another part of the problem is people are eating far more meat than they need to.

"Meat once was a luxury in our diet," Pelletier said. "We used to eat it once a week. Now we eat it every day."

If meat consumption in the developed world was cut from the current level of about 90 kilograms a year to the recommended level of 53 kilograms a year, livestock related emissions would fall by 44 percent.

"Given the projected doubling of (global) meat production by 2050, we're going to have to cut our emissions by half just to maintain current levels," Pelletier said.

"Technical improvements are not going to get us there."

That's why changing the kinds of food people eat is so important, said Chris Weber, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania.

Food is the third largest contributor to the average US household's carbon footprint after driving and utilities, and in Europe - where people drive less and have smaller homes - it has an even greater impact.

"Food is of particular importance to a consumer's impact because it's a daily choice that is, at least in theory, easy to change," Weber said.

"You make your choice every day about what to eat, but once you have a house and a car you're locked into that for a while."

The average US household contributes about five tons of carbon dioxide a year by driving and about 3.5 tons of equivalent emissions with what they eat, he said.

"Switching to no red meat and no dairy products is the equivalent of (cutting out) 8,100 miles driven in a car ... that gets 25 miles to the gallon," Weber said in an interview following the symposium.

Buying local meat and produce will not have nearly the same effect, he cautioned.

That's because only five percent of the emissions related to food come from transporting food to market.

"You can have a much bigger impact by shifting just one day a week from meat and dairy to anything else than going local every day of the year," Weber said.

For more information on how to eat a low carbon diet, visit www.eatlowcarbon.org.

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Eco concerns slowly turning Asia's textiles green

Claire Rosemberg Yahoo News 16 Feb 09;

PARIS (AFP) – Green-friendly fabrics may be expensive, but increasing consumer demand for the environmentally-correct now is forcing Asia's textile giants to go the extra mile to produce clean cloth.

In a sign of the times, at Paris' twice-yearly Texworld textile trade fair this week, around 60 of the 660 firms exhibiting from around the world flew the green flag, a sharp increase on previous sessions, organisers said.

In China, Bangladesh and India, the world's top textile producers, as well as in Pakistan, South Korea and Taiwan, natural fibres, organic yarns, fair trade practices and clean processing are creeping into an industry often chided for polluting soils, wasting water and employing child labour.

"We will be starting organic and fair trade by next year," said Sajedur Rahman Talukder, a marketing manager for Bangladesh's biggest textile-maker, Norman Group of Industries, whose tens of thousands of workers supply western firms such as Ikea.

"It is a market demand."

Eco-friendly fabrics, added South Korean firm Ludia, might currently be a niche product around 15 percent more expensive than run-of-the-mill textile, "but in two or three years the consumers will pay the difference."

"Eco-friendly is our key item, the market has changed," said a company manager.

2009 is being branded UN "International Year of Natural Fibres" to give a shot in the arm to the 40-billion-euro global annual business in cotton, linen, sisal, hemp, alpaca, jute, wool, angora, cashmere, and the like ... much of it grown by small farmers in poor nations.

"Some 30 million tonnes of natural fibres are produced annually," 25 million of them cotton, the UN's food and agricultural agency FAO said last month. "Since the 1960s, the use of synthetic fibres has increased and natural fibres have lost a lot of their market share."

But 15 years ago, Chinese entrepreneur H.L. Ding already had his sights set on homegrown hemp, a 4,000-year-old fibre used in sails for old ships that he describes as the "fabric of the future."

Strong, resistant, in need of little water or care, and no fertilisers, "it is a very special plant, the strongest of the natural fibres, even better than linen."

Five years ago, said the head of Hemp Fortex, based in Qingdao with a design studio in Seattle in the United States, almost nobody had heard of hemp. Now Nike uses the breathable, anti-bacteria, anti-UV fabric for its shoes.

"We believe organic cotton and hemp will be the main direction in the future," said Ding, whose turnover has grown from 400,000 to 10 million dollars a year selling to Walmart stores and labels such as Banana Republic and Patagonia.

Taiwan's Chia Her, a 30-year-old textile-maker, said it turned to eco-friendly textiles three years ago "because it was popular in Europe." Sales of green fabrics since have grown 100-fold.

India's Vardhman Fabrics, a firm founded 40 years ago that says it is the country's top yarn producer, also tip-toed down the green path four years ago "because everyone's asking for eco-friendly to save nature from global warming."

But going green is no easy business. And the first hurdle is winning the right to tag products as being environmentally-correct.

A guide to eco-textile labelling published by the organisers of the Texworld fair lists around 30 eco labels variously issued in Japan, Europe and the US, that all set standards for organic textiles and yarns as well as environmental and fair trade certifications.

"It's very expensive and very difficult to get the certifications," said Syed Adeel Haider, deputy marketing manager for Pakistan firm US Denim Mills, one of the big players on the jeans front, supplying to Levi's and Esprit.

Bringing in consultants, ensuring supplies such as yarns and chemicals met all the right standards, and re-adapting the manufacturing process called for sizeable investment, he said.

"We don't want to harm the environment, the soil or the crops, which are a livelihood for our people," he said. "So being green-friendly is a social attitude, but it's also business.

"Organic materials are in high demand and stores such as Marks and Spencers for example won't buy anything unless we're clean from the environmental point of view."

Two years ago, he said, when the firm began offering green-friendly products, there was no interest. "Now we have enquiries every day."

Even in China, world textile leader with a workforce of 20 million and turnover last year at 400 billion euros, green fabrics are gaining a toe-hold.

"China is receiving increasing orders for eco-friendly textiles, with European customers handing you a thick book like a dictionary with standards and certifications, from the raw material to the finished product," said Yan York, the Chinese representative for Texworld.

"And in China too wealthy people are demanding green," he added. "They want trendy and fashionable clothes that also respect the environment."

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Can geo-engineering rebuild the planet?

As global warming worsens, the idea of vast projects to alter the Earth's environment is moving from fantasy to necessity.
Sanjida O'Connell, The Telegraph 16 Feb 09;

In the 1960s, two Russian scientists set out ambitious plans to reshape the world around us: to reverse the flow of rivers, shoot tiny white particles into space to illuminate the night sky, and melt the Arctic to water fields of Soviet wheat. "If we want to improve our planet and make it more suitable for life," wrote NP Rusin and L Flit, "we must alter its climate."

Four decades later, we have done plenty to alter the climate, but not for the better. And as we grapple with the problems of global warming, the standard prescription – cutting greenhouse gas emissions – is proving problematic.

"I cannot see that we will be able to keep carbon levels low enough to prevent catastrophe," says Professor Brian Launder, of the University of Manchester. "Over the past five years, emissions have gone up, not down."

Which means that "geo-engineering" – using technology on an almost unimaginable scale to tinker with the environment and correct our mistakes – could move from fantasy to necessity. Professor James Lovelock, who came up with the "Gaia" hypothesis, in which the Earth is thought to behave rather like a living, self-regulating organism, thinks we have exceeded the planet's natural capacity to counteract the changes we have made, and are rapidly heading towards a situation that will be calamitous for our species.

"Whatever we do is likely to lead to death on a scale that makes all previous wars, famines and disasters small," he says. "To continue business as usual will probably kill most of us during the century."

Even those of a less alarmist bent are worried enough to be taking geo-engineering seriously. Last September, Prof Launder co-edited a special edition of a Royal Society journal which examined various proposals, such as injecting sulphur into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight back into space.

Most of the schemes suggested, there and elsewhere, involve dramatic alterations to the Earth's weather systems, whether by deflecting the Sun's rays, removing carbon from the atmosphere or cooling the oceans. Prof Lovelock has come up with one of the most ambitious: he and Professor Chris Rapley, from the Science Museum, would like a system of pipes to be held vertically below the ocean's surface. These tubes, each 100 metres long, would draw cold water from below; wave action would then mix four tons of cooler water per second into the ocean at the surface. Cooler oceans mean a cooler planet, while the nutrient-rich water brought up from the bottom could encourage algal blooms, which use carbon to grow and thereby remove it from the atmosphere.

Supporters of another approach, known as Oceanic Iron Fertilisation, believe that promoting the growth of algae should be our main objective, rather than just a side effect. According to Dr Victor Smetacek, of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany, the theory is that adding iron to the oceans will encourage algal blooms. When the algae die, they sink to the bottom of the ocean, locking away their cargo of carbon.

There are plans to test this proposal off the island of South Georgia in the Atlantic. At the very least, Dr Smetacek hopes that large blooms of algae will act as food for krill, helping resurrect declining populations of squid and even some whales.

A third oceanic idea has been suggested by Professor Stephen Salter, from Edinburgh University's School of Engineering: a wind-driven fleet of Flettner ships. Originally designed by German engineer Anton Flettner, these vessels have no sails and are powered by rotors; the first one sailed across the Atlantic in 1926.

The ships would drag propeller-like turbines behind them to generate electricity, and pump out a very fine spray of seawater into the air. These tiny drops would join low clouds, with the salt making them whiter and better at reflecting sunlight back into the atmosphere, thus cooling the oceans. The beauty of this system is that it uses natural materials – seawater – and is powered by a renewable source of energy.

Finally, instead of reflecting sunlight using sea-level contraptions, some scientists have suggested shading the Earth from space. The most recent idea was put forward by Dr Roger Angel at the University of Arizona: to launch into space trillions of thin transparent discs, each about 60cm across. This cloud of 100,000 lenses would reflect sunlight back into space, shielding us from 1.8 per cent of the Sun's radiation.

But as intoxicating as such ideas are – and as tempting as a "quick fix" to the climate would be – they are not the finished article. Not only would the costs be enormous, but in a recent paper in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, Dr Tim Lenton of the University of East Anglia compared the possible effectiveness of 17 different geo-engineering techniques, and found severe problems with many of them. The Lovelock/Rapley plan to cool the oceans would, he says, be ineffective at reducing carbon on a global scale, and he is similarly sceptical about the algal blooms.

"There's huge disagreement in the scientific community about ocean fertilisation," agrees Prof Launder. "The ocean is very complex – elsewhere, perhaps thousands of miles away, you might be causing an adverse effect." Scientists from Britain's National Oceanography Centre, writing in the journal Nature, have demonstrated that adding iron to the ocean does boost algae growth rates by up to three times, and lock away carbon on the sea floor. But they added that geo-engineers overestimated the amount of carbon removed by between 15 and 50 times.

Prof Salter's Flettner ships have also sailed into stormy waters. Dr Lenton has calculated that they could cope with half the projected carbon emissions during the coming century, but Professor Stephen Schneider, from Stanford University, says that oceanic currents and winds might distribute the cooling effect unevenly, resulting in even greater climatic change.

As for Dr Angel's sun shield, Dr Lenton believes it would do the most to compensate for carbon emissions – but there is a downside, in that the sunshades would need to be launched in stacks of 800,000 units every five minutes for 10 years. "They might well work," says Prof Launder, "but this system wouldn't be ready soon enough."

So instead of alleviating global warming by trying to cool the planet or creating giant algal blooms, why not simply remove the carbon? Trees are pretty good at doing this naturally – but according to Prof Lovelock, we do not have enough forested regions left and could not plant enough trees to save us.

Instead, Dr Klaus Lackner, of Columbia University in New York, has come up with the idea of an artificial tree that directly "scrubs" carbon from the sky. Each one would be around the size of a shipping container and would, he estimates, be able to capture a ton of carbon dioxide a day. Of course, the carbon dioxide still has to be disposed of; Dr Lackner suggests pumping it into greenhouses to be absorbed by crop plants.

"In a way, this sort of scheme is the most desirable," says Prof Launder, "because it doesn't just reflect sunlight, it grabs carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Sadly, I don't think these 'trees' can sequester anything like the amount of carbon required."

The grim conclusion is that while some of these schemes have potential, there is no magic answer. "Geo-engineering is not a solution," says Prof Launder, "but it could give the world a chance to come to its senses. In 50 years we'll have carbon-free energy schemes in place, but we need a solution that can be put into place shortly, and will gain us breathing space."

Yet even if any of these schemes could be made to work, a global scheme requires global co-operation. Given how hard that has proved over the financial crisis, it is difficult to imagine world leaders reaching an agreement over a radical – and expensive – alteration to the environment.

Read more!

UN Urges G20 Leaders To Back "Green New Deal"

Daniel Wallis, PlanetArk 17 Feb 09;

NAIROBI - World leaders meeting in London in April should kick-start a "Green New Deal" to fight climate change and revive the crippled global economy on a sustainable basis, a major UN environment meeting was told on Monday.

High on the agenda for more than 100 environment ministers gathered in Kenya this week will be how to draw attention to "green" issues amid job losses and worldwide financial turmoil.

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) says political efforts to curb pollution, protect forests and avert global warming have failed, and the world needs to learn from US President Franklin Roosevelt's response to the Great Depression.

"We face the unprecedented reality that climate change may very well be the more important economic development than what happens on Wall Street or the financial markets, or in our industries," UNEP executive director Achim Steiner told the start of the Feb. 16-20 meeting.

"The question truly is, can the environment afford to be put on the waiting line, or is it indeed part of the solution?"

A UN report presented on Monday at the conference in Nairobi called on G20 leaders to consider proposals for a "Green New Deal", and develop framework ideas towards securing a global climate change agreement at talks in Copenhagen in December.

UN climate scientists says rising greenhouse gas concentrations -- which are up by about a third since the Industrial Revolution -- are stoking warming likely to cause floods, droughts, heatwaves, rising seas and extinctions.

More than 190 nations have agreed to negotiate a new global deal by the end of 2009 to succeed the UN's Kyoto Protocol, which sets carbon dioxide limits for 37 industrialised nations.

Steiner said huge banking bailouts had been mobilised in weeks, but the response to climate change had been lethargic.

"We must ensure that trillions of dollars are not spent by this generation to save its economy of today, without any answers as to what the next generation, that has to repay the debt ... will do in terms of jobs for tomorrow," he said.

In a speech read on his behalf, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the world was reeling from multiple crises, and people were worried about food security, jobs and their savings. An "environmental thread" ran through the story, he said.

Soaring food prices last year had brought intense focus not just on agriculture and trade issues, but on the inflationary role of biofuel production, Ban said.

"Wildly fluctuating crude oil costs illustrated once again our dependence on the fossil fuels that are causing climate change and the short-sighted economic vision that has precipitated the current financial turmoil," he said.

(Editing by David Clarke)

Urgent need for 'Global Green New Deal': UN
Yahoo News 16 Feb 09;

NAIROBI (AFP) – The United Nations called Monday on rich nations to forge a "Global Green New Deal" that puts the environment, climate change and poverty reduction at the heart of efforts to reboot the world economy.

Leaders from the Group of 20 nations, meeting in April, should commit at least one percent of gross domestic product over the next two years to slashing carbon emissions, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said in a report released at the opening of its world forum in Nairobi.

"Reviving the world economy is essential, but measures that focus solely on this objective will not achieve lasting success," the UNEP cautioned, invoking the US New Deal launched by Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s.

"Unless new policy initiatives also address other global challenges -- reducing carbon dependency, protecting ecosystems and water resources, alleviating poverty -- their impact on averting future crises will be short-lived."

The world's most developed economies must take the lead by adopting national plans to slash their use of the fossil fuels -- oil, gas and coal -- that drive global warming, the report says.

Measures could include the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and the development of carbon pricing, either through taxes or cap-and-trade schemes.

The G20's rapidly emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey "should aim, as far as possible" for the same one percent of GDP targets, the UNEP urged.

Poorer and developing nations cannot be expected to make the same carbon-cutting commitments, but should spend at least one percent of GDP on expanded access to clean water and sanitation for the poor, it said.

Twenty percent of people in the developing world lack sufficient clean water, and about half -- some 2.6 billion -- do not have basic sanitation.

UNEP Year Book 2009 Makes the Green Economy Case
UNEP website 17 Feb 09;

25th Session of UNEP's Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum 16-20 February

Nairobi, 16 February 2009 - The importance of realizing a Global Green New Deal and the urgent need for a transition to a low carbon and resource efficient Green Economy are spotlighted in the UNEP Year Book 2009, launched today at an international gathering of environment ministers.

The Year Book, compiled at the request of the UNEP Governing Council, presents the hard facts and worrying trends while also underlining some of the transformational and innovative ideas already being piloted in both the developed and developing world.

Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, said:" The Year Book serves as a reminder to the international community as to why a Green Economy is so urgently needed from the bubbling up of methane gas in the Arctic to the shrinking availability of croplands".

"But it is also about optimism and the power of positive policies: from the way a building in Africa passively cools itself by mimicking termite mounds to the way some countries and cities are pioneering industrial symbiosis-co-locating businesses and factories to recycle and re-use wastes as raw material inputs, saving finite natural resources, millions of dollars and the planet too," he added.

Highlights

Waste

- Over two billion tones of waste are being generated throughout the world annually with someone in a developed economy throwing away around 1.4 kg of solid waste refuse daily.

- This is however leveling off perhaps as a result of waste minimization and recycling measures.

- Developing nations, in particular rapidly developing economies are producing more waste with China expected to produce 500 million tones of solid waste a year, and India about 250 million tonnes by 2030 based on current trends.

Construction and Buildings

There are some positive developments in particular in the building and construction sector, not least in energy efficiency improvements aimed at cutting the estimated 30 to 40 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions linked with the built environment.

- A world-wide survey conducted by McGraw-Hill Construction Analytics found that one third of industry professionals believe more than 10 per cent of domestic construction is already moving to higher resource efficiency.

- A further 50 plus per cent said principles of resource efficiency will be applied to 60 per cent of their projects in the next five years.

- Canada, France and the United Kingdom are among several countries that have launched programmes to make buildings energy neutral-the buildings generate via technologies such as solar and combined heat and power systems as much energy as they consume

- The United Kingdom for example has launched a voluntary industry agreement aimed at cutting by half (12.5 million tones) in 2012 the amount of construction waste going to landfill. It could recover materials worth an estimated $1 billion.

The Year Book highlights how copying nature-so called biomimicry-can offer intriguing solutions. The Eastgate building in Harare, Zimbabwe has passive, self-cooling systems modeled on termite mounds.

The building, a mixture of offices, shops and car parking, uses an average of 90 per cent less energy than a comparable structure saving more than $3.5 million since opening in the 1990s.

'Materials substitution' is another emerging field with researchers around the world in a race to produce cement and concrete that can be made at temperatures lower than the current 1,000 degrees C.

- The Massachusetts Institute of Technology are currently looking at using magnesium compounds-a waste material of many other industrial processes-as a substitute for conventional concrete's calcium-silicate-hydrate particles.

- Others are looking at using substitutes based on silicon and aluminum harvested from waste by-products such as coal ash and iron slag. They have the potential to cut C02 emissions from cement industry by an estimated 20 per cent, while utilizing an industrial waste and producing a final product less prone to weathering-the kind of multiple economic and environmental benefits at the heart of the Green Economy initiative.

Dematerialization is another term in the emerging area of industrial ecology. At its simplest it can be captured in consumers demanding less packaging for example on products. A producer of unbleached cotton, who uses fewer resources, might also be able to charge a higher price and certainly achieve higher profit margins.

Industrial symbiosis, or what is known in China as the Circular Economy, is an off-shoot of this concept. The idea is to co-locate businesses and facilities in such a way that their wastes are raw materials for other nearby ones.

- Pioneering Industrial Symbiosis Network in Kalundborg Denmark, now has more than 25 industrial waste management processes integrated in one system.

- The United Kingdom's Industrial Symbiosis Programme involves more than 8,000 participant companies.

- It has diverted more than four million tones of business waste from landfills.

- Eliminated over 350,000 tonnes of hazardous waste from the environment.

- Saved over nine million tones of water, avoided the use of 6.3 million tones of virgin raw materials and reduced carbon emissions by over 4.5 million tonnes.

- Generated $208 million in new sales for members and saved them nearly $170 million.

- Chicago in the United States and Shanghai in China have adopted similar symbiosis projects.

China's Circular Economy initiative is also looking at labeling products for their resource consumption backed up by tough penalties for companies who use processes, materials and techniques on a so called 'eliminated' list.

- If items on the eliminated list are used, the government can confiscate the equipment, materials or product; impose fines of up to $30,000 or shut the enterprise down.

- Imported items on the 'eliminated' list must be returned and a fine of up to $150,000 can be imposed under the plan.

- If the importer cannot be identified, then the carrier can be made responsible for returning the items or paying for their disposal.

· Banks or other financial institutions are also banned from supporting enterprises that manufacture, import or distribute items on the 'eliminated' list.

Transport

Transport accounts for over 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2005 there were an estimated 650 million vehicles on the road with that number expected to double by 2030.

The Indian city of Chennai is working with the Sustainable Mobility and Accessibility Research and Transformation initiative (SMART) at the University of Michigan in the United States in order to tackle the twin economic and environmental challenges of congestion and pollution.

· Railway and bus systems are to be kitted with wireless technology so that thousands of computer and software industry commuters can work en route.

· At the stop closest to work, the commuters can choose from privately-run, low-polluting shuttle buses; taxis; rental cycles or walking paths.

· The system uses the commuters' mobile phones to forecast anticipated transport and traffic conditions and needs. Eventually commuters will be able to use their phones to check up on the transport networks and choose the most efficient mode based on prevailing conditions.

Industrial Water

Currently close to 880 million people lack adequate access to clean water and 2.5 billion are without improved sanitation in their homes. By 2030, close to four billion people could be living in areas suffering severe water stress mostly in South Asia and China.

Industry uses 10 per cent of water in low and middle-income countries and up to close to 60 per cent in high-income ones.

· A Finnish paper mill has switched from chemical to thermo-mechanically treated pulp and installed a biological wastewater treatment facility-water savings of 90 per cent have been achieved.

· An Indian textile manufacturer has switched from using aluminum to zinc in synthetic fabrics-water consumption has been cut by 80 per cent with the cleaner waste water produced suitable for irrigation uses on nearby farms.

· By separating process water from sewage water, a Mexican sugar cane company has cut water use by 90 per cent.

· A Spanish company, managing 300km of highways in Sao Paulo state, Brazil has designed the roads to funnel rainwater into 250 containment dams with a capacity of 2 million cubic metres. The system allows the rainwater to seep slowly into the ground, assisting in replenishing the Guarani aquifer while saving money in terms of reduced road maintenance.

While some progress is being made, the Year Book underlines the scale of the challenge facing the world towards the end of the first decade of the 21st century.

Climate Change

2008 had the second smallest area of Arctic sea-ice left following the summer thaw since satellite monitoring began in 1979. The National Snow and Ice Center in the United States found that the minimum sea-ice cover, which occurred on 12 September, was somewhere over 4.52 million square kilometers.

"While 2008 saw 10 per cent more ice cover than in 2007, the lowest figure on record, it was still more than 30 per cent below the average for the past three decades. Taken together, the two summers have no parallel," says the Year Book.

· For the second year in a row, there was an ice-free channel in the Northwest Passage through the islands of northern Canada.

· 2008 also witnessed the opening of the Northern Sea Route along the Arctic Siberian coast-the two passages have probably not been open simultaneously since before the last ice age some 100,000 years ago.

· The Greenland ice sheet, which could raise sea levels by six metres if it melted away, is currently losing more than 100 cubic km a year-faster than can be explained by natural melting.

· Losses from the West Antarctic ice sheet have increased by 60 per cent between 1996 and 2006.

· Losses from the Antarctic Peninsula increased by 140 per cent.

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that sea levels might rise by between 18cm and 59cm in the coming century. But many researchers now believe the rise even higher in part as a result of new assessments of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

· One study estimates a sea level rise of between 0.8 and 1.5 metres, while another suggests a sea level rise of two metres in the coming century from outflows of ice from Greenland alone.

· A one metre rise in sea levels world-wide would displace millions of people. Around 100 million people in Asia, mostly Bangladesh, eastern China and Vietnam; 14 million in Europe and eight million each in Africa and South America.

The Year Book argues that urgent action is needed to curb greenhouse gas emissions, not least because some of the natural carbon storage systems or 'sinks' may be losing their absorption capacity raising the spectre of a runaway greenhouse effect.

· Studies in 2008 indicates that one key 'sink'-the oceans-are now soaking up 10 million tones less C02.


The Year Book also flags up increasing concern among scientists about releases of greenhouse gases such as methane from the Arctic as ice melts and permafrost thaws in part as a result of new studies indicating that the western Arctic is warming 3.5 times more than the rest of the globe. This concern has taken on even greater importance as a result of two recently published studies.

· A study focusing on North America suggests that upwards of 60 per cent more carbon could be stored in the permafrost than previously supposed.

· An international study has now doubled the amount of soil-carbon in the permafrost across the entire Arctic.

· Marine researchers have discovered more than 250 plumes of methane bubbling up along the edge of the Continental shelf northwest of Svalbard.

· The International Siberian Shelf Study has found higher concentrations of methane offshore from the Lena River delta.

· Researchers calculate that, once underway, thawing of the east Siberian permafrost-thought to contain 500 billion tones of carbon-would be irreversible and that over a century 250 billion tones could be released.

Monitoring of methane levels in the atmosphere indicate that concentrations rose in 2007 and 2008 after nearly a decade of stability. Intriguingly higher concentrations were detected in both the northern and southern hemispheres.

Meanwhile, the Year Book raises concerns over another carbon sink-forests. Rising temperatures may be stressing trees leading to photosynthesis and thus carbon sequestration halting sooner in summer months. Stressed forests may also be more vulnerable to pollution, disease and pests, again undermining their carbon storage potential.

The Year Book also focuses on new research from the Amazon.

· A doubling of C02 could warm the oceans to such a point that rainfall in the Amazon could decline by 40 per cent.

· Overall an estimated 53 per cent decline in vegetation growth could occur.

· Forest loss on this scale could in turn raise temperature 'locally' by up to eight degrees C triggering further droughts and putting pressure on the Amazon River, the world's largest river that carries one fifth of the world's river water.

The melting of the world's icy regions, including mountain glaciers is also triggering other hazards above and beyond the very serious threats to water supplies if glaciers melt away: nearly a billion people in South Asia rely on seasonal melt waters from the Himalaya-HinduKush mountain system for example.

· Hazardous substances, deposited from the atmosphere and locked away in glaciers, are now being re-released.

· The pesticide DDT is turning up in unanticipated amounts in Adelie penguins that live in parts of the Antarctic coastline.

· Organic pollutants are being carried back into the environment from melting glaciers in the Rocky Mountains of North America.

· Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) can be found downstream of European glaciers.

Disasters and Conflicts

The Year Book also discusses the links between natural disasters, environmental degradation, conflicts and human or social vulnerability as well as the importance of disaster preparedness-issues becoming of increasing concern in a climate-constrained world.

· While geological disasters such as earthquakes and volcanoes have remained fairly constant over the past century, hydro-meteorological disasters such as storms, floods and droughts have increased dramatically since 1950.

· The frequency of these events has increased by an average of 8.4 per cent a year between 2000 and 2007.

· Another new assessment says that the total number of disasters has increased from about 100 events per decade in the period 1900-1940 to almost 3,000 per decade by the 1990s.

· A further study puts the total number of disasters between 2000 and 2005 at 4,850 and links this to both 'technological disasters' such as train wrecks and building failures as well as weather events.

The Year Book spotlights Cyclone Nargis that struck Myanmar with a peak wind speed intensities of 215km per hour on 2 May 2008 leaving more than 140,000 people dead or missing and 2.4 million people homeless and 'catastrophically affected'.

· As with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the loss of 'environmental infrastructure' made coastal communities more vulnerable.

· In the early 20th century, mangrove forests covered an estimated more than 242,000 hectares in the Irrawaddy River Basin, but by the end of the century just over 48,500 hectares remained with the loss linked to clearance for charcoal and latterly for agriculture and shrimp farms.


Ecosystems

The 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment concluded that 60 per cent of the Earth's ecosystems-from forests and soils to coral reefs and grasslands-are damaged or being degraded.

The Year Book underlines that this trend is continuing through 2008.

Increasing demand for food and agricultural production is, under current systems and economic models, triggering a dramatic increase in land under the hoe and the plough.

Today farmland covers nearly a quarter of the planet's surface.

· Entire forest systems have effectively disappeared in at least 25 countries and have declined by 90 per cent in another 29 countries.

Marine fisheries are in a state of stagnation and have been that way for nearly a decade.

· Since the onset of industrial fisheries in the 1960s, the total biomass of large, commercially-targeted marine fish species has declined by a 'staggering' 90 per cent says the Year Book.

· Annual economic losses as a result of over-exploitation and near depletion of the most valuable fish stocks are estimated in 2008 at $50 billion.

Biofuels and their impacts on food production, poverty and ecosystems can trigger polarized views with opportunities for income diversification and a way of reducing pressures on cropland possible in small-scale rural models.

At industrial scales, different crops can have different impacts. A new study has assessed the impact on water use in 2030 based on growing industrial-scale energy crops under current trends.

· An estimated 50 billion litres of maize-based biofuel produced in North America would require 20 per cent of the region's irrigated water supplies

· Producing just under 34 billion litres of sugar-cane derived biofuel in Brazil would require eight per cent of irrigated water supplies.

· Rapeseed-derived biofuel made in the European Union has perhaps the lowest potential water footprint. Producing just over 20 billion litres of fuel would require just one per cent of the EU's irrigated water.

The Year Book points out that it is the poor, and especially the rural poor who depend on healthy and functioning ecosystems.

· An estimated 90 per cent of rural poor depend on forests for at least a portion of their income.

· In rural Africa, small-scale agriculture is the principal source of income for some 90 per cent of people.

· Nature-based income accounts for more than half of the total income stream for the world's rural poor.

Better and more intelligent management of ecosystems and their goods and services will become increasingly critical as the century unfolds and the population climbs to over nine billion by 2050.

· On current projections the availability of cropland per person is set to drop to 0.1 hectares requiring a rise in agricultural production "unattainable through conventional means".

Soil degradation, linked with intensification, has now and already affected all but 16 per cent of the world's croplands-healthy croplands are now confined to temperate areas of the midwestern United States, central western Canada, Russia, central Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil, northern India and northeast China with a scattering across the Tropics.


· One possibility is to manage land and landscapes as 'mosaics' in which food production is one of several central ecosystem services.

So called eco-management as it is now being termed can date back in some cases millennia from the grasslands of Europe to the indigenous peoples of the Americas who managed woodlands to create meadows for deer grazing.

· The Terra Preta soils of central Amazonia have three times more soil organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorous and 70 per cent more charcoal when compared with adjacent soils-the soils were generated by pre-Columbian native populations by adding "charred residues, organic wastes, excrement and bones" to the soils.

Market mechanisms and financial instruments have a role to play including payment for ecosystem services.

Clearing of forests continues at some 13 million hectares annually, equal to an area half the size of the United Kingdom. Tropical forest loss accounts for an estimated 17 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions.

· Countries are currently assessing the inclusion of funding for forests in the UN climate change arrangements to be agreed in Copenhagen later this year under the term Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

Granting fishing communities and fishers rights and responsibilities in a fishery may also be a way forward.

· Surveys of various rights-based catch shares for example in Canada, Chile, New Zealand, Mexico and the United States, indicates that they reduce the risk of fishery ecosystem collapse while boosting livelihoods.

Harmful Substances and Hazardous Waste

2008 has been a year of food and product-contamination crises.

· In March Italy was rocked by incidents involving dioxin-contaminated mozzarella cheese. Dioxins, substances linked with cancer, are by-products from a range of industrial processes including combustion.

· The cases, centering on the region of Calabria, were tracked by authorities to suspected contamination of pastureland.

· In September, China was involved in incidents where milk including baby formulas was found to be contaminated with the toxic chemical melamine.

· In Japan in October two major companies recalled noodle products after discovering insecticide contamination.

· Days later the country's largest meat processor recalled products after discovering that underground water used at a plant near Tokyo contained levels of cyanide compounds.

· Meanwhile in December in Ireland, the authorities recalled pork products again after dioxin contamination via tainted feed.

Over the past two decades, arsenic contamination has been detected in a growing number of countries in South Asia, says the Year Book.

· About 30 per cent of private wells in Bangladesh show high levels of arsenic, at over 0.5 milligrams per liter, and more than half of the country's administrative units are affected by contaminated drinking water.

· The Year Book indicates that deforestation is aggravating the situation in the Amazon. Here forest soils naturally contain up to three times more mercury than pastureland with deforestation releasing mercury to the air and to rivers.

Notes to Editors

The UNEP Year Book 2009 can be found at http://www.unep.org/geo/yearbook/yb2009

It can be purchased at Earthprint http://www.earthprint.com

To read previous UNEP and GEO Year Books, visit http://www.unep.org/geo/yearbook/

The 25th Session of the UNEP Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum takes place in Nairobi on 16-20 February 2009
http://www.unep.org/gc/gc25/

For more information on UNEP's Green Economy Initiative, visit http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/

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