Developed countries' demand for biofuels has been 'disastrous'

Production of crops such as maize and palm oil fuelling poverty and environmental damage in poor countries, says Christian Aid
Press Association, guardian.co.uk 17 Aug 09;

The production of biofuels is fuelling poverty, human rights abuses and damage to the environment, Christian Aid warned today.

The charity said huge subsidies and targets in developed countries for boosting the production of fuels from plants such as maize and palm oil are exacerbating environmental and social problems in poor nations.

And rather than being a "silver bullet" to tackle climate change, the carbon emissions of some of the fuels are higher than fossil fuels because of deforestation driven by the need for land for them to grow.

According to a report, Growing Pains, by Christian Aid, industrial scale production of biofuels is worsening problems such as food price hikes in central America, forced displacement of small farmers for plantations and pollution of local water sources.

But with 2.4 billion people worldwide currently without secure sources of energy for cooking and heating, Christian Aid believes the renewable fuels do have the potential to help the poor.

The charity highlights schemes such as the growing of jatropha in Mali, where the plant is raised between food crops and the oil from the seeds is used to run village generators which can power appliances such as stoves and lights.

The report argues that talking about "good" or "bad" biofuels is oversimplifying the situation, and the problem is not with the crop or fuel – but the policies surrounding them.

Developed countries have poured subsidies into biofuel production – for example in the US where between 9.2 billion dollars and 11 billion dollars went to supporting maize-based ethanol in 2008 – when there are cheaper and more effective ways to cut emissions from transport, the report said.

The charity said biofuels production needed a "new vision" – a switch from supplying significant quantities of transport fuel for industrial markets to helping poor people have access to clean energy.

The report's author Eliot Whittington, climate advocacy specialist for Christian Aid, said: "Vast sums of European and American taxpayers' money are being used to prop up industries which are fuelling hunger, severe human rights abuses and environmental destruction — and failing to deliver the benefits claimed for them."

He said the current approach to biofuels had been "disastrous".

He added: "Christian Aid believes that the best approach to biofuels is to grow them on a small scale and process them locally to provide energy for people in the surrounding countryside. This can also increase rural people's incomes and has the potential to actually increase soil fertility and moisture retention, without compromising people's food security."

Biofuel production 'is harming the poor'
Emily Beament, Press Association, The Independent 17 Aug 09;

The production of biofuels is fuelling poverty, human rights abuses and damage to the environment, Christian Aid warned today.

The charity said huge subsidies and targets in developed countries for boosting the production of fuels from plants such as maize and oil palm are exacerbating environmental and social problems in poor nations.

And rather than being a "silver bullet" to tackle climate change, the carbon emissions of some of the fuels are higher than fossil fuels because of deforestation driven by the need for land for them to grow.

According to a report, Growing Pains, by Christian Aid, industrial scale production of biofuels is worsening problems such as food price hikes in central America, forced displacement of small farmers for plantations and pollution of local water sources.

But with 2.4 billion people worldwide currently without secure sources of energy for cooking and heating, Christian Aid believes the renewable fuels do have the potential to help the poor.

The charity highlights schemes such as the growing of jatropha in Mali, where the plant is raised between food crops and the oil from the seeds is used to run village generators which can power appliances such as stoves and lights.

The report argues that talking about "good" or "bad" biofuels is oversimplifying the situation, and the problem is not with the crop or fuel - but the policies surrounding them.

Developed countries have poured subsidies into biofuel production - for example in the US where between 9.2 billion dollars and 11 billion dollars went to supporting maize-based ethanol in 2008 - when there are cheaper and more effective ways to cut emissions from transport, the report said.

The charity said biofuels production needed a "new vision" - a switch from supplying significant quantities of transport fuel for industrial markets to helping poor people have access to clean energy.

The report's author Eliot Whittington, climate advocacy specialist for Christian Aid, said: "Vast sums of European and American taxpayers' money are being used to prop up industries which are fuelling hunger, severe human rights abuses and environmental destruction - and failing to deliver the benefits claimed for them."

He said the current approach to biofuels had been "disastrous".

"Policymakers should urgently rethink their entire approach to biofuels, to ensure that only crops and fuels which will achieve their social and environmental goals receive government backing."

He added: "Christian Aid believes that the best approach to biofuels is to grow them on a small scale and process them locally to provide energy for people in the surrounding countryside.

"This can also increase rural people's incomes and has the potential to actually increase soil fertility and moisture retention, without compromising people's food security."

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Asia faces food shortage without water reform: UN

Yahoo News 17 Aug 09;

STOCKHOLM (AFP) – Asia could face chronic food shortages and social unrest if the region fails to improve its management of water and farming, according to a UN report published on Monday.

An extra 1.5 billion people will live in Asia by 2050, putting even more pressure on already scarce food supplies, said the study, issued by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI).

There is little scope to expand arable land in most parts of Asia, which means that growing the extra food required can only be achieved with better management of land and water supplies, it found.

The report warns many developing nations in the region are facing by 2050 the prospect of importing more than a quarter of the rice, wheat and maize needed to feed their populations.

At the same time, their is a heightened risk that cereal prices will continue to rise due to increasingly volatile international markets.

"Asia's food and feed demand is expected to double by 2050. Relying on trade to meet a large part of this demand will impose a huge and politically untenable burden on the economies of many developing countries," said IWMI director general Colin Chartres.

"The best bet for Asia lies in revitalising its vast irrigation systems, which account for 70 percent of the world's total irrigated land," he said.

The report says millions of farmers have taken the responsibility for irrigation into their own hands, mainly using out-of-date and inefficient pump technology.

This means they can extract as much water as they like from their land, draining a precious natural resource.

"Governments' inability to regulate this practice is giving rise to scary scenarios of groundwater over-exploitation, which could lead to regional food crises and widespread social unrest," said the IWMI's Tushaar Shah, a co-author of the report.

Asian governments must join with the private sector to invest in modern, and more efficient methods of using water, the study concluded.

"Without water productivity gains, South Asia would need 57 percent more water for irrigated agriculture and East Asia 70 percent more," the study found. "Given the scarcity of land and water, and growing water needs for cities, such a scenario is untenable."

The scenarios forecast do not factor in the impact of global warming, which will likely make rainfall more erratic and less plentiful in some agricultural regions over the coming decades.

Access to water key for world's poor: experts
Yahoo News 17 Aug 09;

STOCKHOLM (AFP) – An international cast of politicians, industry leaders and United Nations officials joined forces Monday to improve access to water and halt a tide of deaths in poor nations.

Some 2,000 experts met at a global water summit in Sweden to tackle problems related to the vital natural resource.

Millions of people worldwide die each year of water- and hygiene-related diseases, Sweden's minister for international development cooperation said as she opened World Water Week 2009.

"By increasing access to water we can change the lives and health of poor women, men and children for the better," said Gunilla Carlsson.

"Nearly four million people die every year due to water- and sanitation-related diseases," she added.

She urged "coherence and cooperation" between a range of sectors to help provide safe water to all, as well as between nations.

This year's summit has a special focus on waterways that cross borders -- how they can both create conflict and foment good relations.

Delegates at the week-long summit in Stockholm, organised by the Stockholm International Water Institute, include government ministers from across the world.

They will discuss a wide range of issues from farming and climate, to meetings which focus on different regions.

Water crisis to hit Asian food
BBC News 18 Aug 09;

Scientists have warned Asian countries that they face chronic food shortages and likely social unrest if they do not improve water management.

The water experts are meeting at a UN-sponsored conference in Sweden.

They say countries in south and east Asia must spend billions of dollars to improve antiquated crop irrigation to cope with rapid population increases.

That estimate does not yet take into account the possible impact of global warming on water supplies, they said.

Asia's population is forecast to increase by 1.5n people over the next 40 years.

Going hungry

The findings are published in a new joint report by the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI).

They suggest that Asian countries will need to import more than a quarter of their rice and other staples to feed their populations.

"Asia's food and feed demand is expected to double by 2050," said IWMI director general Colin Chartres.

"Relying on trade to meet a large part of this demand will impose a huge and politically untenable burden on the economies of many developing countries.

"The best bet for Asia lies in revitalising its vast irrigation systems, which account for 70% of the world's total irrigated land," he said.

With new agricultural land in short supply, the solution, he said, is to intensify irrigation methods, modernising old systems built in the 1970s and 1980s.

But that, he says will require billions of dollars of investment.

'Scary scenarios'

At the same time as needing to import more food, the prices of those cereals are likely to continue to rise due to increasingly volatile international markets.

The report says millions of farmers have taken the responsibility for irrigation into their own hands, mainly using out-of-date and inefficient pump technology.

This means they can extract as much water as they like from their land, draining a precious natural resource.

"Governments' inability to regulate this practice is giving rise to scary scenarios of groundwater over-exploitation, which could lead to regional food crises and widespread social unrest," said the IWMI's Tushaar Shah, a co-author of the report.

Asian governments must join with the private sector to invest in modern, and more efficient methods of using water, the study concluded.

"Without water productivity gains, south Asia would need 57% more water for irrigated agriculture and east Asia 70% more," the study found.

"Given the scarcity of land and water, and growing water needs for cities, such a scenario is untenable," it said.

The scenarios forecast do not factor in the impact of global warming, which will likely make rainfall more erratic and less plentiful in some agricultural regions over the coming decades.

Water reform is 'needed in Asia'
BBC News 17 Aug 09;

Asia must reform its water use to feed 1.5 billion extra people by 2050, says a new report.

The authors warn that without big changes to irrigation many nations will have to import food.

The report says that 94% of suitable land in South Asia is already being used for growing food.

According to their computer model the continent could obtain three quarters of the additional food it needs with better irrigation systems.

The report will be presented on Tuesday to the World Water Week conference in Stockholm.

The study was carried out by the International Water Management Institute and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The researchers warn that some developing nations will have to import more than a quarter of the rice, what and maize they will need by 2050 and that this prospect will be politically risky.

They outline three options for meeting the food needs of Asia's population.

The first is to import large quantities of cereals from other regions, the second to improve and expand "rain-fed" agriculture and the third is to focus on irrigated farmlands.

Politically risky

The report warns that the first option is too politically risky and the second is impossible as suitable land is already in use in many areas.

Lead author Aditi Mukherji of the International Water Management Institute said: "Today, the option of expanding irrigated land area in Asia to feed a growing population is becoming increasingly problematic due to land or water constraints."

The scenarios presented in the report do not factor in climate change which is likely to make rainfall more erratic.

The report recommends modernising the region's large scale irrigation systems which rely on surface water but have fallen into disrepair through lack of investment.

Another suggestion is for governments to help individual farmers use cheap pumps to extract ground water for irrigation.

Read more!

Wheat gets worse as CO2 rises

Nora Schultz, New Scientist 17 Aug 09;

You may have thought that the silver lining of rising carbon dioxide levels would be a boost in crop yields. But evidence is mounting that we may trade quantity for quality.

The discovery that staple crops like wheat have less protein when grown in high concentrations of CO2 has already caused concern, but the bad news doesn't stop there.

Ramping up CO2 also changes the balance of amino acids and several trace elements, says Petra Högy from the University of Hohenheim in Germany.

Together with Andreas Fangmeier, also at the University of Hohenheim, and his team, Högy grew wheat in open fields over three years while blowing extra CO2 over the plots to achieve the concentrations of the gas that are expected to be reached by around 2050.
Iron out

They found several changes in the wheat grains, including an 8 per cent drop in iron and a 14 per cent increase in lead.

"Both of these changes would be bad for human health. The drop in iron is particularly worrisome as half of the world's population are already iron deficient, and this is going to get worse," says Högy.

The team also looked again at the drop in protein that had already been seen and found that essential amino acids – including those important for children – are affected by it, not just non-essential protein components.

In addition, wheat grown under high-carbon conditions was worth less money, with smaller grains that are harder to sell for good prices and different dough properties due to the changed protein composition.
No quick nitrogen fix

The researchers do not know all the reasons for the changed balance of nutrients and minerals but argue that other experiments show that simply increasing nitrogen fertiliser is unlikely to restore the lack in grain protein.

Not all the changes are bad however, says Högy: "The heavy metal cadmium also decreased by 14 per cent, which might be positive," she says.

Iraki Loladze of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, who predicted that rising CO2 would lead to smaller amounts of micronutrients in crops almost seven years ago (PDF), says he is concerned by the continuing lack of awareness of this problem: "The effect of rising CO2 on our food quality is [one of] stealth – it's there, but our scientific radars are not tuned to it.

"This study is important because it brings into sharp focus this effect on wheat – one of the largest sources of calories and nutrients for humans."

Wheat is not the only crop to suffer carbon-induced changes beyond having less protein. Ros Gleadow of Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, who recently reported rising cyanide levels in cassava, says that plants such as eucalyptus respond to rising CO2 levels by making more defensive chemicals, which may make the plants a worse food source for farm animals and wildlife in the future.

Journal reference: Plant Biology, DOI: 10.1111/j.1438-8677.2009.00230.x

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Water footprint of beer more on the farm than in the brewery

WWF 18 Aug 09;

Stockholm, Sweden: The total water involved in producing beer is overwhelmingly used on the farm rather than in the brewery, according to a report presented to World Water Week by major brewer SAB Miller and leading global environment organization WWF.

Water footprinting: Identifying and addressing water risks in the value chain evaluated the water footprints – a way of understanding water use through the whole value chain – of SAB Miller beers produced in South Africa and the Czech Republic.

Better understanding the quantity, efficiency and geography of water use is enabling the two organizations to understand the impacts of water use, improve water management and work with communities and governments to protect watersheds.

The new report reveals that in South Africa, the total water footprint is equivalent to 155 litres of water for every 1 litre of beer such as Castle lager and Carling Black Label, with the vast majority of water use (98.3%) associated with crop cultivation, both local and imported.

For Plzensky Prazdroj, SABMiller’s Czech operation which produces Pilsner Urquell – the original pilsener beer which provided the blueprint for the majority of the world’s commercial beers - agriculture is again the most significant component; accounting for over 90% of the total water footprint.

However, the overall water footprint of Czech beer production is significantly smaller at 45 litres of water to every 1 litre of beer, with the differences due mainly to a greater reliance on irrigation in South Africa and the proportion and origin of imported crops.

In comparison with other beverages, beer’s water footprint is relatively small, with a recent Pacific Institute study finding that coffee, wine and apple juice all have water footprints more than three times that of beer.

However, the water footprint figure itself does not give the whole picture. More important is the context - where the water is used, what proportion of the area’s total water resource it represents, and whether water scarcity creates risks to the environment, communities and businesses now or in the future..

“The water footprints of SABMiller’s beers in South Africa and the Czech Republic are the first detailed corporate water footprints to be published and are progressive in the way they examine the impact of water use within these countries,” said Stuart Orr, WWF’s freshwater footprint manager.

“Most important is that this information is now used to ensure that their business partners – particularly farmers – are encouraged to use water more efficiently.”

In South Africa, SAB Ltd is working with barley farmers to improve irrigation and yields, and with WWF the company is now considering how to develop this further to protect the watersheds within which it operates.

“Water footprinting enables SABMiller to understand which parts of our supply chain might face water scarcity, or poor water quality, in the future, and means that we can plan now to deal with these future challenges,” said SABMiller head of sustainable development, Andy Wales.

“We will build on our existing partnerships with WWF in South Africa, Colombia, and Honduras to create further local watershed protection projects to reduce risk whilst protecting the environment”

Read more!

Asian competitors shadow German solar industry

Richard Carter Yahoo News 18 Aug 09;

BERLIN (AFP) – Germany's solar power industry, until recently the world leader in the technology, is facing an unprecedented crisis, analysts say, outshone by cheaper competitors from Asia, most notably Chinese firms.

Q-Cells, the world's biggest solar cell producer, last week issued a far from glowing set of results, with losses of 700 million euros (984 million dollars) in the first half of the year.

As a result, the German firm said it would cut 500 jobs from its workforce of 2,600 and put others on part-time working arrangements.

The crisis in the German solar industry is affecting small companies as well as giants such as Q-Cells. Only three months ago, start-up Sunline declared bankruptcy with the loss of all its 78 employees.

A glance at the TecDax, Germany's tech-heavy stock market index, nicknamed "SunDax" for the predominance of solar firms, tells the story, with some companies losing around 30 percent of their value since the start of 2008.

"The fact is that Germany is losing more and more of its market leading position in renewable energy production to the United States and China," said Matthias Fawer from Swiss bank Sarasin, quoted in German weekly Die Zeit.

"Asian cell and module producers are going to squeeze out the Germans," Anne Kreutzmann, the chief editor of solar trade newspaper Photon, told the Financial Times Deutschland.

The main reason is simple: Chinese solar power companies are able to produce cells much more cheaply, due to lower labour costs and also the plummeting price for silicon, the raw material for solar cell manufacture.

Whereas German firms are tied in to long-term contracts for silicon deliveries, Chinese firms have been sourcing it from the spot market, where the price has dropped by around 70 percent in the past few months.

According to a survey from Photon Consulting, while it costs a German firm such as Ersol 1.01 dollars per watt to produce a solar cell, Chinese company Suntech can manufacture the same cell for 35 cents per watt.

All in all, production costs for the solar industry are as much as 30 percent lower in China than in Germany, according to a UBS study.

Chinese firms also benefit from state support and the effect has been to push prices for solar cells down significantly in the past few years.

Adding to its troubles, the German solar industry's export market, which accounts for over 40 percent of turnover, is beginning to dry up in key areas.

For example, following the decision by the Spanish government to stop subsidies for installing solar panels, the market there, which had previously enjoyed 200-percent growth rates, has crashed.

The consequences could be severe for the industry, which in 2008 employed around 75,000 people and turned over approximately seven billion euros, according to the latest data from industry association BSW.

"A large proportion of German solar cell and solar module producers will not survive," Patrick Hummel, an analyst from UBS, told the Financial Times Deutschland.

China's market share for solar cells is already on the increase, with around one in three cells already produced there, according to industry estimates.

And faced with this competition from the east, the attitude of many firms has been: if you can't beat them, join them.

Q-Cells is shipping solar cells to China to transform them into solar modules and recently announced a tie-up with Chinese solar wafer firm LDK Solar. The firm has also opened a production line in Malaysia.

Another German firm, Solarworld, has already built a factory in South Korea.

Kreutzmann, from Photon magazine, said German industry will be pushed out of the way "unless the Germans in future also shift their production to Asia."

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Solar power offers light and hope to Bangladesh villages

Azad Majumder, Reuters 17 Aug 09;

PRITOMODDI, Bangladesh (Reuters Life!) - Straw fences and tin roofs: the homes in Pritomoddi village are typical of millions of others across rural Bangladesh, except for one thing: the shiny solar panels that provide electricity, all the time.

At the moment, only 40 per cent of Bangladesh's nearly 150 million people have access to electricity, often only for a few hours a day.

At some places, electricity does now show up for days, making lives difficult at home and disrupting industries and farming, where irrigation pumps stand idle.

The country's power system is almost entirely dependent on fast depleting fossil-fuel, with state-owned and private sector power plants only able to generate up to 3,800 megawatts of electricity a day against a demand of 5,500 megawatts.

All of this makes solar energy systems, offered to villagers heavily subsidized by the World Bank and via an installment scheme run by the state-owned Infrastructure and Development Company Limited (IDCOL), a big relief.

"Life has become much easier now," said Kulsum Begum, a mother of four whose husband and son work abroad and who lives in Pritomoddi, some 60 km (40 miles) southeast of the capital Dhaka.

Begum installed a 40-watt solar system on the roof of her house, which powers four bulbs, one television and also recharges her lifeline: her mobile phone.

"Whenever I need something, I call my husband or son on the cellphone. I am so happy now," she said.

The price of a solar system ranges from 9,500 taka ($135) to 68,000 taka ($970) depending on capacity but the villagers usually pay in installments. Prices are also set to fall after the government lifted import duties on solar panels last month.

Grameen Shakti, a non-profit organization linked to the Nobel Prize winning micro credit agency Grameen Bank, pioneered home solar systems and works with the World Bank and IDCOL to spread the technology throughout the impoverished country.

"Literally 80 to 85 million Bangladeshis are not getting any electricity. So we are extracting sunshine and producing green energy at the grassroots level," said Dipal Chandra Barua, managing director of Grameen Shakti.

"Right now 2.5 million people are benefiting from solar energy and we have a plan to reach 10 million people by the end of 2012," said Barua, who recently won the $1.5 million Zayed Future Energy Prize from Abu Dhabi for his contribution to renewable energy technology.

Since June, Grameen Shakti has installed more than 250,000 solar home systems, accounting for some 66 per cent of the total of solar-powered households. Barua said around 10,000 new solar home systems are being fitted every month.

In Pritomoddi, televisions and mobile phones, which not long so ago were unattainable luxuries, have become common as most villagers enjoy uninterrupted power.

Businesses are also booming.

"Now I keep my shop open hours after the sun had gone down. I get bright light from the solar system instead of the dim glow of kerosene-fired lanterns. It cut my cost, attracts customers and has pushed my business up," said tailor Akthar Hossain.

"Previously when I did not have the solar, I had to pull down shutters early, and had to be content with less than 500 taka ($7) daily. Now I earn more than 800 taka ($12) a day."

($1= 69 taka)

(Writing by Anis Ahmed; Editing by Miral Fahmy)

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300 billion dollars a year for climate change adaptation and mitigation says UNFCCC Executive Secretary

UNEP 17 Aug 09;

Bonn, 17 August 2009 - With 110 days left until the Copenhagen Climate Conference, only "limited progress" was made at the most recent United Nations climate change talks where financing to cut and cope with climate change proved to be a major sticking point among negotiators.

Speaking at the meeting which concluded on Friday, Yvo de Boer, head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat said; "The world will need a phenomenal amount of money to change its energy supply from fossil fuels to cleaner sources and to adapt to climate change."

De Boer estimates the annual cost of climate change adaptation at US$100 billion per year. This is the amount needed to cope with natural disasters such as flooding and drought that will result from increased warming. Meanwhile, he pegs the cost of cutting global emissions at US$200 billion annually.

Currently, the draft text contains 200 brackets indicating points of disagreement between negotiators, who differ on who should bear the financial burden of the climate change challenge.

Nevertheless, De Boer stressed that a U.N. climate pact to be agreed upon in Copenhagen should set up a fair mechanism for raising long-term funds, rather than compel countries to contribute specific amount. "A robust burden-sharing formula is the most important thing."

De Boer also recommended that countries participating in the Copenhagen Conference, open negotiations with some cash on the table, perhaps US$10 billion.

At the G8 Summit in July, UNEP Executive Director, Achim Steiner noted that a successful Copenhagen Summit depended on the political will of world leaders to make good on their Green Economy pledges which entails investing heavily in renewable energies and energy efficiency.

In the run-up to the Copenhagen meeting, two more rounds of UN climate talks will be held; one in Bangkok, Thailand from 28 September - 9 October and another in Barcelona, Spain from 2-6 November.

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Young activists from 110 countries want climate change action

Yahoo News 17 Aug 09;

SEOUL (AFP) – More than 800 young environmental activists from 110 countries on Monday began a meeting described as the biggest-ever youth gathering on climate change.

The week-long conference in the central South Korean city of Daejeon is organised by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It will give young people a chance to demand action on global warming before a crucial Copenhagen meeting in December, according to UNEP.

Achim Steiner, UNEP executive director, said in a statement the conference "is a gathering of the generation that will inherit the outcome of the decisions taken in December and beyond."

The 800 people aged between 10 and 24 year were chosen from thousands of applicants due to their outstanding green projects, the UN body said.

Among these are a rap video by two Canadian teenagers on how people can reduce their environmental footprint, a drive to distribute 500 low-energy lightbulbs in Nepal, a car pooling initiative in Samoa, a recycling project in Sierra Leone and a river clean-up in Russia.

The initiatives will be put to a vote during the conference to choose the best one out of several hundreds on display.

The Children and Youth Conference is part of the UN's global "Seal the Deal!" campaign being spearheaded by Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon to spur support for a global climate agreement.

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China study urges greenhouse gas caps, peak in 2030

Chris Buckley, Reuters 17 Aug 09;

BEIJING (Reuters) - China should set firm targets to limit greenhouse gas emissions so they peak around 2030, a study by some of the nation's top climate change policy advisers has proposed ahead of contentious talks on a new global warming pact.

The call for "quantified targets" to cap greenhouse gas pollution marks a high-level public departure from China's reluctance to spell out a proposed peak and date for it.

"By 2008 China had become the world's biggest national emitter of greenhouse gases and faces unprecedented challenges," says the preface of the 900-page report, setting aside China's reluctance to say it has passed the United States as the top emitter of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas from burning coal, gas and oil.

"As soon as possible, study and draft relative and (then) absolute targets to cap the total volume of carbon dioxide emissions," says the preface of the report, obtained by Reuters.

"Establishing and acting on quantified targets and corresponding policies to address climate change in the medium to long-term is already a matter of great urgency."

The "2050 China Energy and C02 Emissions Report" proposes that, with the right policies, emissions growth could slow by 2020, with levels peaking around 2030.

If China can reach these goals, by 2050 its carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel "could fall to the same emissions levels as in 2005 or even lower," the report says.

The report in Chinese is on open sale and builds on earlier research exploring pathways to a "low-carbon" economy. It adds to recent signals that Beijing wants to play an active role in seeking agreement for a new international climate change pact.

With its fast-rising greenhouse gas emissions, China's stance will be crucial in efforts to create a successor to the current Kyoto Protocol, which expires at the end of 2012.

Western nations have pressed Beijing to set specific goals on slowing emissions growth in coming years, leading to early cuts in absolute volumes as part of a new pact governments hope to seal in Copenhagen by the end of 2009.

Under current treaties, China and other developing countries need not shoulder the quantified limits on emissions that rich economies must take on.

Beijing has said that principle must not change and resisted specifying when its emissions may peak, pointing out its average emissions per person remain much lower than the average in rich nations.

But the airing of proposals for emissions caps comes after signs that Beijing has become more open to stronger steps against global warming as negotiators struggle to build agreement before Copenhagen.

"This report is intended to advise the government what its options are," said Deborah Seligsohn, China Program Director with the World Resources Institute, a Washington-based organization promoting policies to fight global warming.

"I think they're making a pretty concentrated push to move the negotiations forward," said Seligsohn.

Early this month, China's ambassador to the climate talks, Yu Qingtai, said his government wanted to curb greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible.

Next week, the Standing Committee of China's parliament -- a Communist Party-controlled body that echoes government priorities -- will consider a separate report on climate change policy and a resolution on the issue, the Xinhua news agency said.

NOT A CONCRETE POLICY BLUEPRINT

The dozens of contributors to the "2050 China Energy" report included climate policy experts from Chinese state think-tanks, including the Energy Research Institute and the State Council Development Research Center, which advises the cabinet.

Participating scholars stressed that the study was a research exercise, not a definitive policy blueprint, and there was no suggestion that the senior officials listed as its advisers endorsed its specific proposals for targets and a 2030 peak.

But the proposals have been circulated among officials and were echoed in a cabinet meeting last week that urged making "controlling greenhouse gas emissions" an important part of development plans, said an expert familiar with the project, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The report spells out possibly disastrous consequences of global warming, as growing amounts of human-caused greenhouse gases retain more of the sun's energy in the atmosphere.

"The potential threat to China from climate change exists and it is massive," states the report, warning of worsening droughts and floods, retreating glaciers, shrinking farm productivity and threats to water supplies for the country of 1.3 billion people.

To curb emissions, China could push financial steps and price reforms to favor clean energy, a "carbon tax" on fossil fuels and cautious steps toward a "cap-and-trade" system for buying and selling emissions rights, says the report.

Beijing may seek to use such domestic initiatives to show other nations it is serious about fighting global warming, even if the steps are not directly included in any international pact.

"The problem now is not China making its own domestic commitments and targets, it's how we treat those commitments internationally," Dai Yande, a deputy director of the Energy Research Institute and one the report's organizers, told Reuters.

A graphic on China's emissions scenarios

(Editing by Ken Wills and Dean Yates)

FACTBOX: China climate change report sets out options
Reuters 17 Aug 09;

BEIJING (Reuters) - A new study by some of China's top climate change policy advisers has urged the government to set firm targets to curb greenhouse gas emissions so they peak around 2030.

Following are some of the key proposals of that study, "2050 China Energy and C02 Emissions Report."

SETTING GREENHOUSE GAS TARGETS

The study proposes setting relative and then absolute targets for limiting China's emissions of the greenhouse gases from human activities that are stoking global warming. The "relative" targets could involve carbon intensity goals, curbing the amount of emissions needed to create each unit of economic worth.

Later, it says, the government could apply absolute caps on emissions, also allowing for the emergence of a "cap-and-trade" market so companies could buy and sell emissions rights, domestically and internationally.

Movement to such a carbon-trading market should be cautious, the study says. "Once allocation of pollution rights is handed to the government, that may create room for rent-seeking, so ultimately it becomes impossible to effectively allocate rights."

CARBON TAXES

The report devotes a chapter to the potential benefits and costs of a "carbon tax." Such a tax, applied to fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil, "would play a clear role in curtailing our country's future carbon dioxide emissions."

A tax of 100 yuan ($14.6) on every metric ton of carbon from 2010, which would rise to 200 yuan on every metric ton in 2030, could by 2030 reduce emissions by up 24 percent less than they would have been under a "business as usual" scenario.

ENERGY MARKET AND FINANCIAL REFORMS

The study examines proposals to deepen market reforms of the energy sector and force coal-users to pay more for the estimated environmental costs. It also encourages reforms to encourage more investment and private capital in clean energy.

EMISSIONS SCENARIOS

In the study, Jiang Kejun of the Energy Research Institute says that if China continues a "business as usual" approach focused on economic growth and does little to curb emissions, its carbon dioxide output from fossil fuel alone could peak at the equivalent of 3.5 billion metric tons of pure carbon a year by 2040. That does not include greenhouse gas emissions from other sources, such as livestock and land-use changes.

If China adopts policies to promote "low-carbon development," emissions could reach 2.4 billion metric tons of carbon a year by 2050.

Under an "enhanced low carbon scenario" of even more stringent steps, they could reach a maximum of 2.2 billion metric tons a year in 2030 and fall to 1.4 billion metric tons in 2050.

"An enhanced low-carbon growth strategy would be difficult but doable," Jiang told Reuters.

The U.S. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has estimated China emitted 1.8 billion metric tons of carbon from burning fossil fuels in 2007, compared with 1.6 billion metric tons from the United States. (Emissions are also measured in CO2, with each metric ton of carbon equal to 3.67 metric tons of CO2).

(Reporting by Chris Buckley; Editing by Ken Wills and Dean Yates)

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As Arctic Ocean warms, megatonnes of methane bubble up

Michael Marshall, New Scientist 17 Aug 09;

It's been predicted for years, and now it's happening. Deep in the Arctic Ocean, water warmed by climate change is forcing the release of methane from beneath the sea floor.

Over 250 plumes of gas have been discovered bubbling up from the sea floor to the west of the Svalbard archipelago, which lies north of Norway. The bubbles are mostly methane, which is a greenhouse gas much more powerful than carbon dioxide.

The methane is probably coming from reserves of methane hydrate beneath the sea bed. These hydrates, also known as clathrates, are water ice with methane molecules embedded in them.

The methane plumes were discovered by an expedition aboard the research ship James Clark Ross, led by Tim Minshull of the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, in the UK.
Warm gas

The region where the team found the plumes is being warmed by the West Spitsbergen current, which has warmed by 1 °C over the past 30 years.

"Hydrates are stable only within a particular range of temperatures," says Minshull. "So if the ocean warms, some of the hydrates will break down and release their methane."

None of the plumes the team saw reached the surface, so the methane was not escaping into the atmosphere and thus contributing to climate change – not in that area, at least. "Bigger bubbles of methane make it all the way to the top, but smaller ones dissolve," says Minshull.

Just because it fails to reach the surface doesn't mean the methane is harmless, though, as some of it gets converted to carbon dioxide. The CO2 then dissolves in seawater and makes the oceans more acidicMovie Camera.

And it is possible that other, more vigorous plumes are releasing methane into the atmosphere. The team studied only one group of plumes, which were in a small area and were erratic.

"Almost none of the Arctic has been surveyed in a way that might detect a gas release like this," Minshull says.
Methane megatonnes

Ronald Cohen of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington DC says it's a striking result: "What's amazing is that they see such enormous quantities of methane."

The methane being released from hydrate in the 600-square-kilometre area studied probably adds up to 27 kilotonnes a year, which suggests that the entire hydrate deposit around Svalbard could be releasing 20 megatonnes a year.

If methane began escaping at similar rates throughout the Arctic, it would dramatically increase methane levels in the atmosphere.

Globally, it's thought that around 500 to 600 megatonnes of methane are released into the atmosphere each year.

Matt Rigby of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology says, "If there is potential for clathrates to destabilise and release methane, it needs to be intensively studied."
Gas from where?

Cohen cautions that the Arctic methane may not be from hydrate, but could be coming from the methane's primary source, which might be deep within the Earth.

If that was the case, the warming of the West Spitsbergen current may not be to blame.

He says that the large amounts of methane being released make this unlikely, however: "If the methane is all primary, it would be an unprecedented amount." So the idea that the hydrates are at least partly to blame is more plausible. "It's not definitively proven, but it's certainly reasonable," he says.

Methane hydrate could be used as a new, somewhat greener fossil fuel, but extracting the methane without releasing any into the atmosphere remains a challenge.

Journal reference: Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2009GL039191

Methane seeps from Arctic sea bed
Judith Burns, BBC News 18 Aug 09;
Science and environment reporter, BBC News

Scientists say they have evidence that the powerful greenhouse gas methane is escaping from the Arctic sea bed.

Researchers say this could be evidence of a predicted positive feedback effect of climate change.

As temperatures rise, the sea bed grows warmer and frozen water crystals in the sediment break down, allowing methane trapped inside them to escape.

The research team found that more than 250 plumes of methane bubbles are rising from the sea bed off Norway.

The joint British and German research team detected the bubbles using a type of sonar normally used to search for shoals of fish. Once detected, the bubbles were sampled and tested for methane at a range of depths.

Writing in Geophysical Research Letters, the team says the methane was rising from an area of sea bed off West Spitsbergen, from depths between 150 and 400m.

The gas is normally trapped as "methane hydrate" in sediment under the ocean floor.

"Methane hydrate" is an ice-like substance composed of water and methane which is stable under conditions of high pressure and low temperature.

As temperatures rise, the hydrate breaks down. So this new evidence shows that methane is stable at water depths greater than 400m off Spitsbergen.

However data collected over 30 years shows it was then stable at water depths as shallow as 360m.

Ocean has warmed

Temperature records show that this area of the ocean has warmed by 1C during the same period.

The research was carried out as part of the International Polar Year Initiative, funded by Britain's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

The team says this is the first time that this loss of stability associated with temperature rise has been observed during the current geological period.

Professor Tim Minshull of the National Oceanography Centre at Southampton told BBC News: "We already knew there was some methane hydrate in the ocean off Spitsbergen and that's an area where climate change is happening rather faster than just about anywhere else in the world."

"There's been an idea for a long time that if the oceans warm, methane might be released from hydrate beneath the sea floor and generate a positive greenhouse effect."

"What we're trying to do is to use lots of different techniques to assess whether this was something that was likely to happen in a relatively short time scale off Spitsbergen."

However methane is already released from ocean floor hydrates at higher temperatures and lower pressures - so the team also suggest that some methane release may have been going on in this area since the last ice age.

Significant discovery

Their most significant finding is that climate change means the gas is being released from more and deeper areas of the Arctic ocean.

Professor Minshull said: "Our survey was designed to work out how much methane might be released by future ocean warming; we did not expect to discover such strong evidence that this process has already started."

"We were slightly surprised that if there was so much methane rising why no one had seen it before. But I think the reason is that you have to be rather dedicated to spot it because these plumes are only perhaps 50m to 100m across."

"The device we were using is only switched on during biological cruises. It's not normally used on geophysical or oceanographic cruises like ours. And of course you've got to monitor it 24 hours a day. In fact, we only spotted the phenomenon half way through our cruise. We decided to go back and take a closer look."

The team found that most of the methane is being dissolved into the seawater and did not detect evidence of the gas breaking the surface of the ocean and getting into the atmosphere.

They stress that this does not mean that the gas does not enter the atmosphere. They point out that the methane seeps are unpredictable and erratic in quantity, size and duration.

It is possible that larger seeps at different times and locations might in fact be vigorous enough to break through the ocean surface.

Most of the methane reacts with the oxygen in the water to form carbon dioxide, another greenhouse gas. In sea water, this forms carbonic acid which adds to ocean acidification, with consequent problems for biodiversity.

Graham Westbrook, lead author and professor of geophysics at the University of Birmingham said: "If this process becomes widespread along Arctic continental margins, tens of megatonnes of methane a year - equivalent to 5-10% of the total amount released globally by natural sources, could be released into the ocean."

The team is planning another expedition next year to observe the behaviour of the methane plumes over time. They are also engaged in ongoing research into the amount of methane hydrate under this area of the ocean floor.

Ultimately, they want to be able to predict how much might be vulnerable to temperature change and in what timescale.

# Methane hydrate is stable below 400m
# Nearer the surface the hydrate breaks down as temperatures rise and the methane is released
# Gas rises from the sea bed in plumes of bubbles - most of it dissolves before it reaches the surface
# So far scientists haven't detected methane breaking the ocean surface - but they don't rule out the possibility

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Best of our wild blogs: 17 Aug 09

Life History of the Elbowed Pierrot
from Butterflies of Singapore

Picking up after the party
from The annotated budak and other updates

Pied Fantail takes a dragonfly
from Bird Ecology Study Group

Meandering through mangroves at Pulau Ubin
from wild shores of singapore

Monday Morgue: 17th August 2009
from The Lazy Lizard's Tales

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Time for Singapore to think about environmental pricing

Straits Times Forum 17 Aug 09;

I WRITE in response to last Tuesday's report, 'Will you need to pay an emissions tax for your flight?'.

It is heartening to hear that the civil aviation industry recognises the need to take bold steps to make itself climate-friendly. This is despite the difficulties it faces in setting an international rate for emissions pricing, due to uneven demand for such a scheme in different countries.

However, if the International Civil Aviation Organisation is committed to being climate-friendly, despite this challenge, how does Singapore, a country where it is relatively easy to implement policy due to its small size, compare in terms of its environmental policies?

Consider, for example, the use of plastic bags. They have a large environmental footprint. It is estimated that the manufacture of one plastic bag emits 200g of carbon dioxide. Moreover, when disposed of, they either take up space in landfill, or emit noxious gases when incinerated.

In Taiwan and Hong Kong, plastic bags are banned unless consumers pay for them. In Singapore, there is the weekly Bring Your Own Bag day, an exercise that relies on the altruism of voluntary participants - which is far less effective than an economic mechanism which sends constant price signals to consumers.

The Electronic Road Pricing system shows Singapore is no stranger to using economic instruments to achieve its policy goals. If a 'Sustainable Singapore' is indeed on the agenda of policymakers, they should also think about environmental pricing.

Curbing the use of plastic bags - so common in everyday life, yet so easily replaceable with re-usable bags - could be the low-hanging fruit Singaporeans could start with.

Lau Ying Shan (Miss)

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