Population growth driving climate change, poverty: experts

Marlowe Hood Yahoo News 21 Sep 09;

PARIS (AFP) – Unchecked population growth is speeding climate change, damaging life-nurturing ecosystems and dooming many countries to poverty, experts concluded in a conference report released Monday.

Unless birth rates are lowered sharply through voluntary family-planning programmes and easy access to contraceptives, the tally of humans on Earth could swell to an unsustainable 11 billion by 2050, they warned.

The UN currently projects that global population will rise from 6.8 billion today to between 8.0 and 10.5 billion by mid-century.

The researchers said that with one and a half million more humans climbing aboard the planet every week, a recipe is looming for ecological overload, famine and broken states.

"Continued rapid population growth in many of the least developed countries could lead to hunger, a failure of education and conflict," said Malcolm Potts at the University of California in Berkeley, which hosted the conference in February.

The papers, authored by 42 specialists in environmental science, economics and demography, are published by the Royal Society, Britain's de-facto academy of sciences.

"There is no doubt that the current rate of human population growth is unsustainable," summarised Roger Short, a professor at the University of Melbourne in Australia.

"The inexorable increase in human numbers is exhausting conventional energy supplies, accelerating environmental pollution and global warming and providing an increasing number of failed states where civil unrest prevails."

Ninety-eight percent of the expected population growth will occur in developing countries, especially in Africa, where numbers are set to double to almost two billion by 2050.

"How Niger is going to feed a population growing from 11 million today to 50 million in 2050 in a semi-arid country that may be facing adverse climate (change) is unclear," said Adair Turner, a member of Britain's House of Lords.

The population of Uganda was five million in 1950, is 25 million today and could reach 127 million by 2050, Turner said.

Concern about population growth is not new.

It was most famously articulated by a British mathematician, Thomas Malthus, who in 1798 -- when Earth was home to about one billion -- calculated that exponential growth would inevitably lead to famine.

Malthus's dire warning was widely taken seriously until the advent of mechanised farming. The surge in food productivity, helped by the Green Revolution of the 1960s, gave the impression that Earth's bounty was limitless.

But relentlessly rising demand, diminishing farmland, depleted fish stocks, falling water tables and the threat of climate change have in recent years placed the Malthusian dilemma back on the table.

In their overview, the authors say that even though the burden of excess population is clear, controversy and taboo stalk the question of how to tackle it.

Some objections, such as the Roman Catholic Church's ban on birth control, are religious.

But the question has been ignored or sidelined in the secular arena too, the authors said.

Population control, for example, did not figure among the UN's eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000, though it was added later "as an afterthought," said Short.

One reason has been the family planning programmes in China and India that critics say veered into forced sterilisations and coercive abortions, breaching human rights.

The researchers acknowledged these problems but also pointed out that without its "one-child" policy, China would have an extra 300 to 400 million mouths to feed today.

There would be double the number of young people, from 20 to 40 million, who enter the Chinese job market each year.

The researchers agreed with the widely held belief that improving economic conditions generally lead to lower birth rates.

But, they argue, smaller families also lead to greater prosperity, and this can be helped by programmes that are voluntary and inexpensive.

Some 80 million pregnancies -- nearly 40 percent of the total each year -- are unplanned. More than half of those unwanted pregnancies will result in abortion, with five million women suffering severe complications or death.

"Much more emphasis need to be given to meeting the need for family planning -- all women should be protected from unintended childbirth," they said in a collective editorial.


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Carbon emissions fall with global downturn: report

Yahoo News 21 Sep 09;

LONDON (AFP) – Greenhouse gas emissions have fallen thanks to the global downturn, handing the world a chance to move away from high-carbon growth, a report said Monday, citing an International Energy Agency study.

The unpublished IEA study found carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels had dropped significantly this year -- further than in any year in the past four decades.

Falling industrial output is largely responsible for the plunge in emissions, but other factors also played a role, including shelving plans for new coal-fired power stations because of falling demand and lack of financing.

The fall will exceed the drop in the 1981 recession that followed a crisis in the oil markets, according to the results of study published in the Financial Times newspaper.

"We have a new situation, with the changes in energy demand and the postponement of many energy investments," said Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist.

"But this only has meaning if we can make use of this unique window of opportunity. (That means) a deal in Copenhagen."

The December meeting in Copenhagen, under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, aims to set down action for tackling heat-trapping carbon emissions beyond 2012, when the current provisions of the Kyoto Protocol run out.

Government policies to cut emissions have also had an impact on emission levels, with the IEA estimating that about a quarter of the reduction is the result of regulation.

The study is an excerpt from the Paris-based IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, which will be published in November. The excerpt will be released early next month ahead of the Copenhagen meeting, according to the FT.

The report also comes as world leaders converge on New York and Pittsburgh this week for pivotal talks in the two-year effort to remake global climate rules, ahead of Copenhagen.

Birol said a global agreement was needed in Copenhagen to encourage companies to cut emissions.

"We hope that an agreement in Copenhagen would give a signal for new investments to go in (an environmentally) sustainable direction," he said.

"If we miss this opportunity, it will be much more expensive and therefore harder than ever to bring the world's energy system on to a sustainable path."

Emissions of CO2 Set for Best Drop in 40 Years
Jad Mouawad, The New York Times 21 Sep 09;

Global carbon emissions are expected to post their biggest drop in more than 40 years this year as the global recession froze economic activity and slashed energy use around the world.

The decline comes as political leaders are struggling to come up with a common approach to dealing with climate change.

The main factor behind this year’s drop in emissions is the slowdown in industrial activity and trade around the world, according to a study due to be released in November by the International Energy Agency.

But the energy agency, which provides policy advice and research to industrialized nations, found that government actions had also contributed to the drop in emissions. The agency said it expected to see global carbon emissions fall 2.6 percent this year.

The projected decline was first reported Monday by The Financial Times.

World leaders will meet at the United Nations on Tuesday for a one-day summit meeting to pursue a new agreement to fight global warming. The talks are expected to conclude with a climate treaty in Copenhagen in December.

The negotiations are stalled amid disagreements between developed and developing countries on how to share reductions in carbon emissions.

Even if temporary, a global reduction in emissions could allow advocates of stringent new limits on carbon dioxide to argue that continued progress is available using existing technology and switching to cleaner fuels, like natural gas.

The forecast should also make it easier for most nations to meet emissions reduction targets in the near and medium term and could give a lift toward a new global warming treaty, said Paul W. Bledsoe of the National Commission on Energy Policy, a bipartisan advisory group.

“Because many countries are using 2005 as a baseline year, this will give them some breathing room when economic activity picks up again,” Mr. Bledsoe said.

The projection from the International Energy Agency tracks other forecasts from government agencies, including the Department of Energy, which found that greenhouse gas emissions in the United States fell 3.8 percent in 2008 compared with 2007; they are estimated to be down another 6 percent this year.

However, an improving economy is expected to increase domestic carbon dioxide emissions 0.7 percent next year, according to the Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Department of Energy.

Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of energy sources account for 80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.

John M. Broder contributed reporting from Washington.


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Climate myths: Any cooling disproves global warming

Michael Le Page, New Scientist 21 Sep 09;

In fact, even if the world does cool over the next few years as some predict, it in no way undermines the certainty about long-term warming due to greenhouse gas emissions.

Let's start with a thought experiment. Suppose you managed to find some children who knew nothing about the oceans, handed them a long measuring stick and sent them off to the seaside find out whether sea level is rising or falling.

As soon they saw the waves crashing on the shore, the children would realise they had been set a tricky task: how do you measure sea level when it is constantly changing?

If they were smart, the kids would try to find a quiet cove or harbour where there were no waves and start measuring. After an hour or so they would come running up to you. "The sea is going down! The sea is going down!" they'd shout in excitement.

"Not so fast," you'd reply. "Keep going." After a day or two, the children would realise the sea rises and falls at least once a day. If they were really dedicated and kept going for several days, they'd soon come running back to you.

"The high water mark is getting lower," they'd declare triumphantly. "That means sea level is falling." And once again you'd have to tell them to keep at it.

The moral of this story is that it is very difficult to detect underlying trends that are small compared with short-term changes.
Short and long term

We know, thanks to measurements taken all over the world over many years, that in the last decade of the 20th century sea level rose about 3 millimetres per year. That's the equivalent of 30 centimetres over a century, which would be more than enough to cause serious problems for many low-lying areas.

But a rise in sea level of less than 0.01 millimetres per day is very hard to detect when the sea rises and falls several metres every day, influenced by the moon, sun and winds. A bunch of children equipped with a ruler would have no chance of detecting the "real" change in sea level even if they kept going for weeks.

People who claim we can stop worrying about global warming on the basis of a cooler year or a cooler decade – or just predictions of cooling – are as naive as a child mistaking a falling tide, or a spring low tide, for a real long-term fall in sea level. Just as the underlying change in sea level is swamped by the daily and monthly changes, so the annual variation in global temperature masks any underlying trends.

The up and down of waves can be compared with the day-night difference in temperature, the coming and going of the tides to summer and winter. Only when one stands back and looks at the changes over decades does the long-term trend become clear.

(This, by the way, is why model predictions for 2050 or 2100 are more reliable than those for 2015 or 2020 – the longer the timescale, the more the "signal" stands out from the noise.)
The confounding sea

Of course, while short-term changes in sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature – there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the system. It's becoming clear that changes in the oceans underlie much of this variation.

For instance, the reason 1998 was so hot (since surpassed by 2005) was because there was a very strong El NiƱo that year, during which the Pacific pumped huge amounts of heat into the atmosphere.

Predictions of global cooling in the short term are partly based on the idea that sea surface temperatures will fall in the northern Atlantic, due to slow, irregular swings in conditions known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

The bottom line is that, just as a few hot years do not prove global warming is real, neither do a few cool years prove it is not. Models suggest that it is perfectly possible for a decade or two of cooling to occur even when there is a long-term warming trend.

The strongest evidence for global warming comes from physics and chemistry, not from records of past temperatures, which is why scientists were predicting warming long before the rise in temperature over the 20th century was obvious.

Read more: Climate change: A guide for the perplexed on the New Scientist website.


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Global businesses demand ambitious new climate deal

Peter Griffiths, Reuters 21 Sep 09;

LONDON (Reuters) - A coalition of more than 500 international companies on Tuesday urged rich countries to commit to "immediate and deep" cuts in greenhouse gas emissions at U.N. climate talks to help combat global warming.

The group of some of the world's biggest energy companies, retailers and manufacturers said a failure to agree a strong new climate deal at U.N. talks in Copenhagen in December would erode confidence and cut investment in low-carbon technology.

In a statement issued as nations met for a climate summit at the United Nations in New York, the coalition said economic development will be impossible without a stable climate.

"These are difficult and challenging times for the international business community and a poor outcome from...Copenhagen will only make them more so," it said.

"If a sufficiently ambitious, effective and globally equitable deal can be agreed, it will...deliver the economic signals that companies need if they are to invest billions of dollars in low carbon products, services, technologies and infrastructure."

The statement was issued by companies who back a campaign by Britain's Prince Charles, heir to the throne and environmental campaigner, to press for new government policies on climate change and "to grasp the business opportunities created by moving to a low climate-risk economy."

Members of the prince's Corporate Leaders Group on Climate Change include Britain's largest retailer Tesco, German insurer Allianz and Royal Dutch Shell, Europe's largest oil company by market value. Launched in 2005, it is managed for the prince by the University of Cambridge.

Disagreements between rich and poor countries over emissions caps and how much money emerging economies should receive to cope with climate change have hampered preliminary talks before the U.N. negotiations in the Danish capital.

The business group urged nations to set aside their differences and confront climate change with the same urgent, joint approach they took during the economic crisis.

"Developed countries need to take on immediate and deep emission reduction commitments that are much higher than the global average," the statement added.

(Editing by Jon Boyle)

Global business chiefs urge 'robust' climate deal
Yahoo News 22 Sep 09;

LONDON (AFP) – The chiefs of more than 500 global companies called Tuesday for an "ambitious, robust and equitable" climate change deal, in the spotlight in New York ahead of a landmark meeting in Copenhagen.

The business leaders from over 50 countries including Brazil, Britain, China, Japan, Russia and the United States said measures to spur recovery from the global downturn must be environmentally sustainable.

"Economic development will not be sustained in the longer term unless the climate is stabilised," they said in a Copenhagen Communique, organised as part of a project based at Britain's Cambridge University and backed by Prince Charles.

"It is critical that we exit this recession in a way that lays the foundation for low-carbon growth and avoids locking us into a high-carbon future," they added, calling for "an ambitious, robust and equitable global deal on climate change that responds credibly to the scale and urgency of the crises facing the world today".

The call came as some 100 world leaders gathered in New York trying to breathe new life into deadlocked negotiations, 100 days before the December Copenhagen meeting aiming to seal a successor to the landmark Kyoto Protocol.

Kyoto was signed in 1997 and came into force in 2005, but has been hobbled by the refusal of president George W. Bush's US administration to back it as it would be too costly for US business and the American economy.

Signatories of the Copenhagen Communique include Willie Walsh of British Airways, Richard Branson of Virgin, Nike boss Mark Parker, Shiro Kondo of Japan's Ricoh Company and Naguib Sawiris of Egypt-based Orascom Telecom.

"As a business leader I can only achieve my ambition if my actions are underpinned by the foundation of political intent and robust law. The bolder the political ambition the bolder I can be," said Branson.

Cameron Clyne of the National Australia Bank said he had signed "because it is vital to play a meaningful part in shaping effective global and local responses and solutions to climate change."


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Best of our wild blogs: 21 Sep 09


Reef Survey @ Pulau Satumu Aborted
from colourful clouds

Semakau - Always a pleasure to see new things
from Singapore Nature and wonderful creation with lots of animals and wild shores of singapore

Night feeding by Masked Lapwing
from Bird Ecology Study Group

Wintering Tiger Shrikes
from Bird Ecology Study Group

Monday Morgue: 21st September 2009
from The Lazy Lizard's Tales

Are we on a one-way street away from nature?
from snail's tales


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Fashion labels drop Asian Paper & Pulp after party highlights the plight of Indonesian forests

Jeremy Hance, mongabay.com 21 Sep 09;

The fashion world has been rocked: not by the newest designer or the most shocking outfit, but by the continuing destruction of forests in Indonesia. On September 15th, the Rainforest Action Network (RAN) helped open New York City's styling Fashion Week with a party to encourage fashion designers to take a closer look at the paper bags they give customers.

Many luxury shopping bags are destroying forests as far away as Indonesia, impacting the world's climate and threatening orangutans, Asian elephants, tigers, the Sumatran rhino, and innumerable other less well-known species, according to RAN.

The organization decided the best way to reach out to the fashion world was to throw a party and it appears to have worked. RAN says that several companies have cancelled contracts with Asia Pulp and Paper through New Hampshire based company, Pak 2000, including H&M, Billabong, Baker & Taylor, Osborn & Little, and OKA.

APP has long been accused by environmentalists of massive and unsustainable forest destruction in Indonesia, including clearcutting wildlife habitat, contributing to global warming, and destroying indigenous peoples' land.

The party was hosted by fashion standby Tiffany's and Co. The company was the first to make the switch in its paper bags—and all other paper products—to those certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC).

"Tiffany & Co. has a long history of concern for the natural world," said Michael J. Kowalski, chairman and chief executive officer of Tiffany & Co. "From our shopping bags to our gemstones to our gold and silver, we’re trying to tread more gently upon the Earth so that our customers can be assured we share their desire to protect the world our children will inherit."

The destruction of forests and peatlands in Indonesia has given the nation the dubious status of the becoming world's third highest greenhouse gas emitter after China and the United States. Globally the degradation and destruction of rainforests is responsible for fifteen to twenty percent of greenhouse gas emissions. Stopping such destruction has been considered by many environmentalists to be the cheapest and quickest way to mitigate the impact of global warming.

Having discovered that nearly 100 fashion labels are complicit in rainforest destruction due to the bags they give away, RAN has also sent letters to the world's top fashion labels.

"The world looks to New York Fashion Week to set trends," said Michael Brune, RAN’s executive director. "After this party, top designers around the world will see that the trend for Spring 2010 is to get rainforest destruction out of their boutiques."

Previously, APP has lost contracts with Staples, Wal-Mart, Office Depot, and Woolworths over its environmental record.

Related article
Asia Pulp & Paper and fashion for glossy, paper shopping bags is ‘destroying rainforest’ Ben Webster and Emily Gosden Times Online 19 Sep 09;


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Climate Change - CO2 emissions: Burying the problem

Michael Richardson, Straits Times 20 Sep 09;

CARBON dioxide is the main greenhouse gas warming the planet and causing potentially dangerous climate change. So why not remove it before or after fossil fuels are burned and bury it deep underground - a process known as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described CCS as one of the most promising technological solutions to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

The need is certainly compelling. Nearly 70 per cent of the 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide spewed into the atmosphere each year is energy-related. Burning fossil fuels - mainly coal, but also natural gas and oil - to generate electricity accounts for more than 40 per cent of these emissions. Another 25 per cent comes from large-scale industry, such as iron and steel production, cement making, natural gas processing and oil refining.

With energy demand, especially in Asia, projected to grow by more than 40 per cent over the next two decades, keeping greenhouse gas emissions within tolerable limits will call for improved energy efficiency, increased use of solar, wind and other renewable energy, more nuclear power - and implementation of CCS on a wide scale.

CCS is currently expensive but technically feasible. Just last week, three of the world's leading energy companies, Chevron, Shell and ExxonMobil, agreed to invest US$37 billion (S$52.3 billion) to develop the giant Gorgon liquefied natural gas project off the coast of western Australia and include the world's largest CO2 capture and burial plan.

The Gorgon zone is estimated to contain 40 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas beneath the seabed. However, about 7 per cent of this reserve is CO2. Traditional gas processing would strip the CO2 and vent it into the atmosphere.

At a cost of about US$1.7 billion, the Gorgon joint venture plans to compress and inject 3.4 million metric tons of CO2 per year into a naturally occurring reservoir more than 2,000m below the processing plant on an offshore island. Over the life of the project, 120 million tons of CO2 will be buried this way.

This will be the first commercial scale CCS project in Australia. There are four similar, though smaller, projects around the world, all linked to oil and gas production. Two are in Norway, one in Algeria and the other straddles the United States-Canada border.

The longest in operation is at Norway's Sleipner gas field in the North Sea, 250km from land. Since 1996, one million tons of CO2 per year has been removed from the natural gas and injected back into the seabed. By the end of last year, 11 million tons of CO2 had been stored this way with no leakage.

This is important. When consultant McKinsey & Company studied CCS last year, it found that public concerns about whether the CO2 captured and stored would remain isolated from the atmosphere in the long term was one of the barriers to application of the technology.

Other obstacles included: One, concerns about the safety of CO2 transported by pipeline or ships on the way to underground storage; two, whether there were enough locally available geological formations suitable for storage; and three, lack of legal frameworks and government support to encourage development of CCS.

Another barrier is cost. The IEA says about half of all CCS would be in power generation, with the remainder in heavy industry and energy processing. The uptake in power generation and industry has been slow because CCS raises capital and operating expenses substantially, while decreasing plant energy efficiency. This is a key consideration in Asia, where coal - the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels - is the dominant source of electricity supply.

The IEA calculates that for coal-fired plants it costs US$40-55 for each ton of CO2 captured, and for gas-fired plants US$50-90. McKinsey reckons that the extra costs of running a 300-megawatt CCS demonstration power plant over its full life could amount to between US$735 million and US$1.6 billion.

Still, Sweden's Vattenfall group, Europe's fifth largest electricity generator, started running a 30-megawatt CCS coal-burning plant in Germany a year ago. It aims to test and prove all aspects of the technology for at least three years before deciding whether to build two 300-megawatt demonstration plants. The company says the first, in Denmark, could be in operation by 2013 and the second, in Germany, by 2015.

Vattenfall believes that by then, or a few years later, the cost of CCS will be no more than the price of emitting CO2 under emissions trading schemes. It aims to develop 1,000-megawatt coal-fired plants with CCS by 2020.

The next decade will be critical for the future of CCS. The IEA says that if there are at least 20 commercial-scale CCS projects operating by 2020 in a range of power and industrial settings around the world, it will 'considerably reduce uncertainties related to the cost and reliability' of the technology.

This would be a practical validation of one of the most promising options for a fast and significant reduction in global CO2 emissions.

The writer is visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.


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UN Climate Change Summit - US: The science sends stark message

Daniel Shields, Straits Times 21 Sep 09;

TOMORROW, United States President Barack Obama will speak to world leaders on climate change during a special United Nations summit in New York. The nations of the world are working hard to negotiate a new global agreement to combat climate change - one of the greatest challenges facing our world today. Already, its impact is apparent and consequences severe.

Arctic sea ice is disappearing faster than expected. The Greenland Ice Sheet is shrinking. Sea levels threaten to rise higher than anticipated. And water supplies are increasingly at risk from both melting glaciers and extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods. These changes threaten not only the environment, but also security and stability.

The science sends a simple and stark message: all countries must work together to combat climate change, and the time for action is now.

Mr Obama recognises that the US must be a leader in the global effort to combat climate change. We have a responsibility as the world's largest historic emitter of greenhouse gases. We know that without US emissions reductions, no solution to climate change is possible. So the US will take the lead in building a 21st century clean energy economy.

The President has called on Congress to develop comprehensive clean energy legislation to cut emissions by 14 per cent from 2005 levels and 83 per cent in 2050. A Bill has passed the House of Representatives and is making its way through Congress. His economic stimulus package includes over US$80 billion (S$113 billion) for clean energy. And recently instituted vehicle standards will increase fuel economy and reduce emissions.

From an environmental perspective, the European Union and US climate packages are comparable and lead to emissions reductions that are consistent with the science. Rather than debate on negligible differences between EU and US policies, it is far more critical to work together to prevent unchecked emissions growth among key emerging economies.

All major emitting nations have to work together to take strong action. There is no other way to contain climate change: The International Energy Agency estimates 97 per cent of emissions growth will come from the developing world. The US is pursuing a global strategy to combat climate change through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiating process, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate and key bilateral relationships.

Developed countries need to reduce their emissions substantially by 2020 on an absolute basis, compared to a 2005 or 1990 baseline. Major developing nations must take actions that will substantially reduce their emissions by 2020 on a relative basis, compared to their so-called 'business as usual' path. Other developing countries should focus on preparing low-carbon growth plans - with financial and technical assistance where needed - to guide their longer-term development path. It is important to ensure that a new agreement will not require developing countries to take steps that would stifle their capacity to develop and grow.

Ultimately, a climate change agreement must be about not only limiting carbon emissions but about providing a pathway for sustainable development. Clean energy development is the only sustainable way forward. To facilitate this path, countries with advanced capabilities must stand ready to develop and disseminate technologies to countries in need.

If we work together, the effort to build a clean energy global economy can provide significant opportunity, driving investment, economic growth and job creation around the world.

The US and Singapore share many goals on preventing climate change. Both have much to lose from the negative impact of climate change, but we also have much to offer in finding ways to mitigate that impact or avoid it altogether.

Singapore is well placed to lead efforts in research and development of renewable energy technologies and promote new 'clean tech' industries that could not only help save the planet, but also provide new jobs for Singaporeans and new export opportunities for Singapore business. US and Singapore scientists are already collaborating on energy and environmental research to pave the way for these new industries. The US and Singapore have been discussing these issues with the rest of the region's economies at this year's Apec meetings.

The US is clear in its intent to secure a strong international agreement.

The writer is Charge d'Affaires at the Embassy of the United States in Singapore.


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UN Climate Change Summit - EU: Now is not the time to play poker

Jose Manuel Barroso, Straits Times 21 Sep 09;

THIS week, world leaders will gather for a United Nations summit to discuss the forthcoming climate change negotiations in Copenhagen. Much attention will be focused on the main players - China, India and the United States. Nonetheless, it is important to remember that all Asian countries have an important role to play in this process.

As a region, Asia probably faces the largest impact from climate change. Asian governments need to be part of a solution that allows them to mitigate and adapt to climate change while at the same time develop their economies. I believe this is possible. However, it will require a pragmatic approach.

Climate change is happening faster than we believed it would only two years ago. Continuing with business as usual almost certainly means dangerous, perhaps catastrophic, climate change during the course of this century.

I am now very concerned about the prospects for Copenhagen. The negotiations are dangerously close to deadlock at the moment - and such a deadlock may go far beyond a simple negotiating stand-off that we can fix next year. It risks being an acrimonious collapse, perhaps on the basis of a deep split between the developed and developing countries. The world cannot afford such a disastrous outcome.

So I hope that as world leaders peer over the edge of the abyss this week, we will collectively drive the negotiations forward. Now is not the time for poker playing. Now is the time for putting offers on the table, offers at the outer limits of our political constraints. That is exactly what Europe has done, and will continue to do.

Part of the answer lies in identifying the heart of the potential bargain that might yet bring us to a successful result.

The first part of the bargain is that all developed countries need to clarify their plans on mid-term emissions reductions, and show the necessary leadership, in line with our responsibilities for past emissions. If we want to achieve at least an 80 per cent reduction by 2050, developed countries must strive to achieve the necessary collective 25 per cent to 40 per cent cuts by 2020. The European Union is ready to go from 20 per cent to 30 per cent if others make similar efforts.

Second, developed countries must now explicitly recognise they have to play a significant part in helping to finance mitigation and adaptation action by developing countries. Our estimate is that by 2020, developing countries will need roughly an additional EU100 billion (S$208 billion) a year to tackle climate change. Part of it will be financed by economically advanced developing countries themselves. The biggest share should come from the carbon market, if we have the courage to set up an ambitious global scheme.

But some will need to come from inflows of public finance from developed to developing countries, perhaps EU22 billion to EU50 billion a year by 2020. Almost half of this amount will be required to support adaptation action, with priority given to the most vulnerable and poorest developing countries. Depending on the outcome of international burden-sharing discussions, the EU's share of that could be anything from 10 per cent to 30 per cent - that is, up to EU15 billion a year.

So we need to signal our readiness to talk finance this week. The counterpart is that developing countries, at least the economically advanced, have to be much clearer on what they are ready to do to mitigate carbon emissions as part of an international agreement. They are already putting in place domestic measures to limit carbon emissions but they clearly need to step up such efforts.

They understandably stress that the availability of carbon finance from the rich world is a prerequisite to mitigation action on their part. But the developed world will have nothing to finance if there is no commitment to action in the developing world.

We have less than 80 calendar days to go till Copenhagen. As of the Bonn meeting last month, the draft text contains some 250 pages: a feast of alternative options, a forest of square brackets. If we don't sort this out, the document risks becoming the longest and most global suicide note in history.

This week in New York and Pittsburgh promises to be a pivotal one. It will reveal how much global leaders are ready to invest in these climate negotiations, to push for a successful outcome.

Copenhagen is a critical occasion to shift, collectively, onto an emissions trajectory that keeps global warming below 2 deg C. The fight back has to begin this week.

The writer is President of the European Commission.


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Orang utan under threat

New Straits Times 20 Sep 09;

In Central Kalimantan, the hunters and poachers have the blood of orang utan on their hands. The forests that are home to these animals are also being cleared at an alarming rate in the name of development. A rehabilitation centre offers some measure of hope, writes AMY CHEW.

NODDY, an orphaned baby orang utan, climbs up a tree and stares into the distance at the Nyaru Menteng Orang Utan Rehabilitation Centre, his future as uncertain as the existence of the forests which used to be his home.

His mother was killed in the wilds, under what circumstances, his carers do not really know. But what is sure is that she met with a cruel and violent end -- hacked to pieces, burnt or shot to death -- like so many others before her.

In a forest in Sampit, an animal poacher fires a shot at a female orang utan with a baby in her arms. As the orang utan falls, she clings tightly to her baby.

When the hunter comes over to the dying creature, he is stunned -- he sees tears flowing from its eyes.

"The mother held on to her baby until she breathed her last," recounts Eko Haryuwono, founder of the Nyaru Menteng orang utan rescue unit.

"The hunter was moved by the orang utan's tears and has since stopped killing them."

The hunter now helps the rescue team by informing the unit of orang utan in danger of being killed or poached.

The orang utan, or people of the forest, is our closest relative. Orang utan and humans share 98 per cent of the same DNA.

"They have emotions just like humans. They can cry, worry and experience sorrow and joy just like us," says Eko.

While only two per cent of DNA separates us from the orang utan, we have often shown ourselves to be more beast than human.

We grab a disproportionate share of the land and leave little or nothing for the animals.


Forest land is relentlessly being cleared to make way for oil palm plantations as demand for bio-fuel rises, driving the orang utan out of their homes and to certain death.

Workers at huge oil palm plantations regard the orang utan as pests and often kill them in the most cruel and inhumane way.

"They (workers) pour petrol over them, then throw a lighted match to set them on fire. This happened in a huge plantation company in 2003," says Eko.

"We have also found body parts of orang utan in oil palm plantation. The animal was chopped to pieces."

Eko and his team also find orang utan beaten to death with iron bars and wooden planks.

"Some were beaten unconscious and buried alive. We humans should be ashamed of ourselves," Eko says quietly.

Nyaru Menteng, which sits on 6.5ha of land, was originally set up to house 100 orang utan but the number has now grown to 648.

It is funded by the Borneo Orang Utan Survival Foundation (BOS) of Indonesia and BOS International.

Rehabilitation in the centre means teaching the baby orang utan how to climb trees and look for food -- skills to help them fend for themselves in the wild.

The majority of the orang utan brought to the centre are orphans who have lost their mother, who would otherwise have been the one teaching them survival skills.

The centre faces great difficulties in finding forest land to release the mammal back into the wild after rehabilitating them as forest land shrinks.

Indonesia has 120 million ha of forest and peat land out of which 28.3 million ha have been cleared or degraded, according to the Forestry Ministry.

Illegal logging and timber companies also drive the rapid deforestation of Indonesia's pristine forests and peat lands which are important "green lungs" to the world.

Indonesian environmentalists have often called on the government to give out permits of degraded land to large plantation companies. But the call is seldom heeded as forest trees are worth millions of dollars in the timber trade.

"Many palm oil companies clear forests and orang utan habitat to generate income from the valuable timber as it would be five years before new plantings of oil palm produce any products," says Michelle Desilets, director of the British-based Orang Utan Land Trust.

According to Desilets, palm oil companies are even allowed to develop within designated national parks like the Tanjung Puting National Park which is home to 6,000 orang utan.

Tanjung Puting is located in Central Kalimantan .

"When plantations clear habitat, the orang utan are driven into ever smaller patches of forest with dwindling food supply," says Desilets.

"Starving and desperate for whatever nutrition they can find, the orang utan venture into the newly-planted areas and eat the young shoots of the plant. As a result, they become regarded as an agricultural pest."

Indonesia and Malaysia combined produce nearly 90 per cent of the global palm oil supply. Many of the multi-million dollar plantation companies operating in Central Kalimantan have Malaysians and Singaporeans as their joint venture partners.

Desilets appeals to the Malaysian and Indonesian government to put a moratorium on the conversion of primary forests, high conservation value forests and peat land into industrial logging and oil palm plantations.

"We would (also) like to see both governments take a united stand to combat illegal logging and trade in endangered species, put more resources into protecting forests through ranger patrols, fire-fighting efforts and satellite surveillance," he says.

With an estimated 5,000 orang utan perishing every year, there is little time left to save the remaining 45,000 in the wild.

Experts believe it is only a matter of time before the animals become extinct.

"It will be difficult to protect them all without the commitment of the governments of Indonesia and Malaysia ," she says.

"It is distressing to think that even if we can save 10,000 of them, about 35,000 wild orang utan will needlessly suffer and die. "We need all the help we can get to minimise these numbers."

Saving the orang utan will be a demonstration of our humanity, that we are indeed worthy to be called humans, and not beasts.


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Pandas to return to famous China reserve in 2012

Yahoo News 20 Sep 09;

BEIJING – Sixty pandas relocated last year from a famous Chinese nature reserve after their breeding center was severely damaged by a massive earthquake will return home after repairs in 2012.

The panda breeding center in the Wolong nature reserve in southwest China's Sichuan province is undergoing a 379 million yuan ($55 million) reconstruction expected to be completed by 2011, the official Xinhua News Agency said late Saturday.

The Wolong reserve's location in a damp, narrow valley several hours from Chengdu, the Sichuan capital, made it vulnerable during the 7.9-magnitude quake, which sent boulders the size of cars crashing down, destroying enclosures and administrative buildings.

The May 12, 2008, quake left nearly 90,000 people dead or missing, including 12 staffers at the panda center.

The center had 63 pandas before the quake, but one died, another went missing and a third died of illness, Xinhua said, citing Luo Zengbin, deputy head of the provincial forestry department. The surviving pandas have been moved to zoos elsewhere in China, with most sent to the Bifengxia panda base in the city of Ya'an.

About 1,590 pandas are living in the wild, mostly in Sichuan and the western province of Shaanxi. An additional 180 have been bred in captivity.

Wolong is part of efforts to breed giant pandas in hopes of increasing the species' chances of survival.

China quake-hit pandas to return home: state media
Yahoo News 20 Sep 09;

BEIJING (AFP) – Sixty giant pandas who were transferred to zoos around China after last year's devastating earthquake in Sichuan province destroyed their home are set to return in 2012, state media reported.

The 8.0-magnitude quake in May last year left more than 87,000 people dead and missing in Sichuan, and seriously damaged the Wolong nature reserve, which had 63 pandas in captivity, the official Xinhua news agency said late Saturday.

One panda was killed in the tremor, one is still missing, and another died of an illness, the report quoted Luo Zengbin, deputy head of the Sichuan Provincial Forestry Department, as saying.

The quake also killed 12 people who worked with the pandas, seriously injured 57 others, and damaged nearly 60,000 hectares (148,000 acres) of the animals' habitat in southwestern China, the report said.

The surviving animals were moved to zoos in other parts of the country while the Wolong base underwent a 380-million-yuan (56 million dollars) reconstruction programme, expected to be completed by 2011.

They should return to their home base in 2012, the report said.

There are about 1,590 pandas living in the wild around China, mostly in Sichuan, northern Shaanxi and northwestern Gansu provinces. A total of 180 have been bred in captivity, according to earlier reports.

But their notoriously low libidos have frustrated efforts to boost their numbers.

In a recent report issued by the World Wildlife Fund, the conservation group warned that the giant panda could soon die out as rapid economic development is infringing on its way of life.


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Species alert: WWF Australia's report on Australia's biodiversity

Catherin Cheung, The Age 5 Sep 09;

This Monday, September 7, marks the celebration of National Threatened Species Day. Ecologist Catherine Cheung explains why this particular date has great - and tragic - significance for Australia's rapidly declining natural national treasures.

September 7, 1936 was a historic day for Australia's endemic wildlife.

It was a day of no return, not for some ground-breaking discovery or the passing of a famous celebrity, but rather the extinction of a species cursed by hysteria, greed and apathy.

For at least two million years, the thylacine – Tasmanian tiger – had roamed the Australian continent. Humans first came ashore some 46,000 years ago. Our megafauna began to decline, marking the start of our Earth’s 6th mass extinction.

Unlike the last one, which finished off the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago, this one is not caused by a wandering asteroid or comet, super-volcano or other natural phenomenon. It is caused by us.

"Australia, we now know, was the first continent to be stripped of its giants … rhino-sized marsupial diprotodons, massive kangaroos, six-meter-long goannas and horned tortoises as long as a Volkswagen Beetle … Thus, in its first forty millennia, the sixth extinction ran a wild and deadly course, exterminating the world’s giants. Australia lost 95 per cent of its land-animal genera weighing more than forty-five kilograms… Dr Tim Flannery.

As the sixth mass extinction progresses, the thylacine disappeared from the continent, about 3000 years ago, leaving only the Tasmanian tiger population still co-existing with the early Aborigines.

Since European colonization on Tasmania in 1803, the 'tiger' was exhaustively shot or trapped by sheep farmers paranoid of the marsupial predator. Whole-scale extermination was encouraged by private and state bounties, and lucrative rewards from international museums and zoos. Competition with feral dogs and diseases among the remaining, weakened populations, all contributed to its demise.

The last confirmed record of a wild tiger came from a farmer who killed the animal in 1930.

Six years later, the thylacine was finally granted legal protection. This came far too late. In the same year - on September 7, 1936 - the last surviving Tasmanian tiger on Earth died in Hobart’s Beaumaris Zoo after 12 years of captivity.

The thylacine was gone merely 131 years after the first European encountered it. In 1996, Australia declared September 7 as National Threatened Species Day, in commemoration of this tragic loss.

More recently, in 1981, the Southern Gastric Brooding Frog of South-East Queensland also became extinct.

The female of this species had for milleniums an ingenious way of ensuring the survival of its offspring. It swallowed its tadpoles, stopped producing digestive acids temporarily and brooded the tadpoles inside its stomach. In less than two months, little froglets emerged as the female regurgitated.

Despite such a reproductive marvel, and the apparent healthy stream habitats of the Conondale and Blackall Ranges north of Brisbane where the species once thrived, it has vanished. Its close relative, the northern gastric brooding frog in Eungella National Park, followed suit soon after.

It took years before scientists concluded that chytrid fungus caused the demise of the gastric brooding frogs, decline of several other frog species in the Wet Tropics, and indeed havoc in many other amphibians worldwide.

The introduction of the fungus into Australia is likely a result of poor quarantine procedures associated with the exotic amphibian pet trade.

Another introduced disease of national significance is the Phytophthora root rot, caused by the soil fungus Phytophthora cinnamomi. Imported unknowingly with citrus trees from Asia, the fungus has caused 'dieback' of many native plants and affected natural ecosystems as well as agricultural crops.

Australians probably have more stories to tell than most other nations when it comes to introduced pests, many of which were initially considered 'super-heroes', 'magic fixers', or simply brought in as hunting targets, new food sources or familiar companions.

While the prolific rabbit, toxic cane toad and cunning fox have stolen the spotlight, countless other animals and plants have been introduced, deliberately or not, causing irreversible damage to our fragile environment and wildlife.

Predation by red foxes and feral cats, competition with native species and land degradation by feral rabbits, pigs and goats, are all listed as Key Threatening Processes under the federal government’s EPBC Act.

Of the 28,000 plant species (ornamentals, pasture grasses, horticultural species) that arrived with early Europeans, 2800 have become problem weeds.

Each year, management of weeds and feral animals and agricultural losses accounts for more than $4.7 billion.

Interestingly, native species out of their natural ranges can also become pests. Examples include the tropical cadaghi (a eucalypt) and the umbrella tree. Both have become weeds in populated areas on the east coast. The latter, with its abundant seeds, is out-competing native species, even in national parks and reserves.

Native fauna and flora need habitat. Yet, in the second half of the 20th century, Queensland cleared more land than in the preceding 150 years.

Under the federal and state government’s Brigalow Scheme, three million hectares of native bushland were cleared, using bulldozers and metal chains strung between powerful tractors.

Furthermore, a report commissioned by WWF-Australia outlined that Queensland’s clearing rate between 1997 and 1999 was estimated at around 446,000 hectares per year, a rate equivalent to one hundred football fields every hour, according to Dr Nicola Markus of Bush Heritage Australia.

Despite stricter clearing regulations in recent years, land clearing has continued on a smaller yet devastating scale, especially in SE Queensland.

To many native wildlife, the combined impacts of loss of food, shelter and territory, habitat loss or fragmentation, the spread of weeds, fire, susceptibility to diseases and increased mortality to road traffic, dogs and cats, have become too much to cope with.

A case in point: "The Koala Coast has experienced dramatic development and population growth in the past decade and this has impacted upon the significant koala population of the area. The most recent study by the Department of Environment and Resource Management concludes that the koala population has declined by 51% in the last three years” - Redland City Council.

According to the Australian Koala Foundation, some 25,000 koalas have died from disease, dog attacks, cars and, increasingly, starvation in the past decade in South-East Queensland.

Despite such grim findings and strong recommendations from the local council, numerous environmental groups and researchers, the koala (in particular the SE Queensland population) remains unlisted on the EPBC Act. Without national level protection, the many isolated populations of this iconic Australian species, and ultimately the species itself, will be doomed.

Indeed, the 6th mass extinction has taken its toll on tens of thousands of species worldwide and is, with each passing year, growing in intensity.

In Australia, the EPBC Act lists 426 threatened fauna species: 55 Extinct, one Extinct in the wild, 36 Critically Endangered, 134 Endangered, 197 Vulnerable and 3 Conservation dependent.

Alarmingly, 1324 species of plants and 46 ecological communities are also considered threatened and warrant protection.

Marine species are not immune, either. Dugong, whales, turtles, sharks, fishes, even corals are now Endangered or Critically Endangered - globally.

As populations decline, risks from isolation, inbreeding, diseases, habitat degradation, catastrophes, climate change and other impacts increase.

Species become increasingly trapped in an 'extinction vortex' from which there is no escape.

Ironically, the listing of a species on the EPBC Act does not necessarily mean that they are safe from harm’s way. A few examples still found in South-East Queensland include the Northern Quoll, Grey-headed Flying-fox, False Water Rat, Coxen’s Fig Parrot, Regent Honeyeater, Black-breasted Button-quail, Wallum Sedge Frog, Mary River Turtle, Australian Lungfish, Humpback Whale, Grey Nurse Shark, Orange Roughy and four marine turtles.

The State government’s proposed Traveston Crossing Dam on the Mary River alone, if approved, would further endanger some 20 already threatened species. The proposal has been described as environmentally, hydrologically and socially irresponsible by a wide range of international, national and regional organisations, scientists and individuals.

The recent approval of the Gorgon Gas Project on Barrow Island off WA, despite being home to many threatened species, raises furether questions about the agendas of governments, both national and state.

So is there hope?

From the achievements of some 2009 Australian Museum Eureka prize winners, the answer has got to be 'yes'.

Notably, Dr Conrad Hoskin came to fame with the discovery of seven new reptiles in tropical Queensland, and with his colleagues, rediscovery of a frog species that was thought to be extinct.

Dr Hoskin also discovered a new frog and shed light on how new species might evolve rapidly.

Evolve they must, with global warming threatening every corner of the globe.

Is it not our moral obligation to protect at least some of what is left of the natural ecosystems and their services for future generations? Functioning ecosystems, with the species and genetic diversity they nurture, will provide the essential ingredients and opportunities for adaptation to change.

Perhaps more heartwarming is the announcement of the Eureka People’s Choice Award to Dr Katherine Belov.

She revealed how the lack of genetic diversity among the dwindling populations of the Tasmanian Devil has caused the current cancer 'plague', and is on the way to finding the gene needed to reverse the situation.

Perhaps Australians’ hearts are still with our 'natural treasures' – who would want to see the 'devil' go the same way as the 'tiger’ – appearing only as a symbol of loss or on beer bottles?

Ten things you can do to help:
- Value every native tree, shrub and grass – grow local natives and spare a second thought before you cut a tree down.
- Learn more about your local native species and the environment. Share this knowledge with friends, colleagues and students.
- Spend time in nature with your kids and grandkids. Encourage them to explore and discover.
- Join or support the work of conservation groups.
- Vote for politicians with clear environmental advocacy, and not climate change sceptics.
- Phone or write to politicians to voice your environmental concerns.
- Write to the media to show your support for environmental causes.
- Sign up your property as Nature Refuge or Land for Wildlife if it is eligible.
- Be a responsible pet owner, or better still, a wildlife carer instead.
- Live more sustainably – reduce your carbon / ecological footprint.

Catherine Cheung is Education Officer for Noosa Integrated Catchment Association in Queensland.
Two new species discovered each week: report
ABC 6 Sep 09;

A flesh-eating plant and one of the world's most venomous snakes are two of the more unusual species listed in a report on plants and animals recently discovered in Australia.

The study by WWF Australia found that, on average, two new species have been discovered in this country every week during the last decade.

They include the venomous pilbara death adder and the flesh-eating pitcher plant, found on northern Cape York in 2006, which eats small rats, lizards and birds.

WWF's threatened species program manager Michael Roache says there are probably many more undiscovered species in Australia.

"It just highlights the amazing richness of Australian biodiversity," he said of the report.

"Really, it's further confirmation that Australia is indeed one of the world's mega-diverse countries, that harbour most of the world's species.

"But this could just be the tip of the iceberg. There could be thousands more out there."

Mr Roache says the report should remind Australians how vital it is that ecosystems are protected.

"Some of the species that have been discovered in the last 10 years we already know to be threatened, so it really is crucial," she said.

"The beauty of this list is that it gives us hope and inspiration that Australia is such an amazing country for its biodiversity and it can give people a positive reminder of what we should be doing. We've got something to protect."

Related links
Download the report from the WWF-Australia website.


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