Asia pays watery price for overdevelopment

Denis D. Gray Associated Press Google News 26 Oct 11;

BANGKOK (AP) — As millions of urbanites living a modern lifestyle fear that torrents of floodwater will rage through Thailand's capital, some in enclaves of a bygone era watch the rising waters with hardly a worry — they live in old-fashioned houses perched on stilts with boats rather than cars parked outside.

"No problem for them. They'll be safe," says boatman Thongrat Sasai, plying his craft along some of the remaining canals that once crisscrossed Bangkok, earning it a "Venice of the East" moniker.

Like most of monsoon-swept Asia, the city and its environs have experienced periodic floods since it was founded more than two centuries ago. But recent decades have witnessed dramatic changes — from intense urbanization to rising waters blamed on climate change — that are turning once burdensome but bearable events into national crises.

"In a sense traditional society had an easier coexistence with water and flooding," says Aslam Perawaiz, an expert at the Bangkok-based Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. "Now, with such rapid development there's a much bigger problem."

Across Asia, areas of high population density are also those most prone to flooding and other water-related disasters, according to an Associated Press analysis of recent U.N. maps. When overlaid, the maps show such convergence in a wide arc from Pakistan and India, across Southeast Asia, to China, the Philippines and Indonesia.

This isn't mere bad luck. Historically, agrarian societies settled in the continent's great river basins, including the Ganges in India, the Mekong in Southeast Asia and the Chao Phraya in Bangkok. The gift of the rivers was fertile land, but it came at the price of almost annual flooding during the monsoon rains.

By providing sufficient food for growing populations, these rice bowls in turn spurred the rise of some of Asia's largest cities from Bangkok to Kolkata, India. The concentration of national resources and wealth means even smaller disasters can have a big impact.

Severe flooding this year has killed more than 1,000 people across Asia, and economic losses are running in the tens of billions of dollars.

Thailand, suffering its worst flooding in 50 years, offers a prime example of the perils of centralization and man's fractured bonds to the natural environment. Floodwater has spilled into outlying parts of Bangkok, and the government is scrambling to try to prevent the inundation of the city center.

The basin of the Chao Phraya — the River of Kings — and its headwaters in the north are home to 40 percent of the country's 66 million people. Bangkok is Thailand's industrial, financial, transportation and cultural heart, contributing more than 65 percent of its gross domestic product.

Growth, outward and upward, has been stunning. Bangkok's greater metropolitan area now covers nearly 3,000 square miles (more than 7,700 square kilometers) and continues to gnaw away at a surrounding countryside that once acted as a natural drain for water from northern mountain watersheds — themselves shedding more water because of widespread deforestation.

Highways, suburban malls and industrial parks, many now swamped and sustaining crippling losses, create dangerous buildups of water or divert it into populated areas rather than along traditional paths toward the Gulf of Thailand.

In Bangkok itself, streets where today's middle-aged residents used to play with water buffaloes as children are studded with towering, cheek-by-jowl condominiums and office blocks. The ratios of green space to population and area are among the lowest of any major city in the world.

To this add extreme and erratic weather, said to be triggered by climate change, which has increasingly buffeted Asian countries with storms, typhoons and floods. These include ones such as Thailand with a historically mild tropical climate.

Further, the legal and illegal pumping of underground water faster than it can be replaced has compressed water-storing aquifers, causing Bangkok to sink between 0.8 and 2 inches (2 to 5 centimeters) each year. Scientists say the rise of waters in the nearby gulf as a result of global warming could combine with the sinking land to put Bangkok under water much of the time by mid-century.

Similar subsidence and seawater encroachment is occurring in Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City and Manila, where a typhoon last month triggered the worst flooding in the Philippine capital in decades.

Bangkok, some experts half-jokingly say, may well return to what it was in the 19th century: a water world where almost all its 400,000 inhabitants lived on raft-houses or homes on stilts. "The highways of Bangkok are not streets or roads, but the river and the canals," wrote British envoy Sir John Browning in 1855.

A century later, on the advice of international development agencies, Bangkok began to fill in most of its canals — excellent conduits of floodwaters — to build more roads and combat malaria.

Sumet Jumsai, a prominent architect and scholar, says that Bangkok's early development "evolved with nature and not against it." But, he adds, by the early 1980s the city had become "an alien organism unrelated to its background and surroundings, a great concrete pad on partially filled land that ... must succumb to the flood every year."

Dikes and drainage pipes have been built, but nature appears to be keeping several steps ahead of manmade defenses.

"Of course this year the flood is maybe too great to stop, but all in all it was better in the old days," says Phairat Klatlek, sitting atop a poorly erected concrete flood wall through which water rushed into the first floor of her home. She and her electrician husband, like most of their neighbors, had built a ground-hugging, modern house along the Bangkok Noi canal.

Sumet is designing modern, functional buildings, including a university campus, built on stilt columns and proposes a revival of floating houses, promenades and markets.

"The underlying philosophy is the return to living with nature like in Bangkok of yesteryear," he says.

But Aslam, the disaster expert, says, "I don't think we can go back to living in harmony with nature as in the past. What is now necessary is huge investments and long-term planning by governments to mitigate such flooding."

___

Associated Press writers Sopheng Cheang in Phnom Penh, Cambodia; Teresa Cerojano in Manila, Philippines; and Asia interactive producer Pailin Wedel contributed to this report.

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Kota Kinabalu wetlands have the right criteria to be a Ramsar site

The Star 27 Oct 11;

KOTA KINABALU: Kota Kinabalu Wetlands, one of the popular tourist attractions in the state, is poised to become a Ramsar site soon.

Expressing confidence in the uniqueness of Kota Kinabalu Wetlands, Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Tan Sri Joseph Kurup said it had the right criteria to be accorded Ramsar status.

He said his ministry would give its utmost support to make this a reality.

Ramsar sites are designated under the Ramsar Convention, also known as the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance.

The Convention has the unique distinction of being the first modern treaty between nations aimed at conserving natural resources.

The Convention was signed in 1971 at the small Iranian town of Ramsar.

“Most important is to maintain this area and thus, I urge everyone to contribute towards making Kota Kinabalu Wetlands a Ramsar site worthy of visiting for many generations to come,” Kurup said in his speech when launching the Malaysia Environment Week 2011, organised by the Sabah Wetlands Conservation Society recently.

Kurup said the 24ha Kota Kinabalu Wetlands provides an opportunity for visitors to experience and learn first-hand about a mangrove habitat, a type of wetlands, without the burden of having to travel to a distant location.

“Wetlands are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world. Many wetlands have been significantly destroyed to make way for development.

“However, if managed well, wetland ecosystems can play a vital role in the mitigation of climate change which helps humans counter the effects of climate change based on their role in ensuring water and food security,” he said.

Sabah Biodiversity Centre director Dr Abdul Fatah Amir said the application for Ramsar-site status for Kota Kinabalu Wetlands was now in the final stage of preparation.

“Kota Kinabalu Wetlands has many types of birds that fulfil the criteria for being a Ramsar site. If everything goes well, the proposal will be brought to the state Cabinet at the year-end for deliberation before being submitted to the Ramsar Convention (to be held probably next year),” he said.

The Lower Kinabatangan-Segama Wetlands was the area to be designated a Ramsar site in Sabah and the biggest in Malaysia. — Bernama

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Sustainable Bushmeat Harvesting Is Possible, Finds UN Report

MONTREAL, Quebec, Canada, October 25, 2011 (ENS) - Wild mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians are disappearing from the world due to overexploitation for bushmeat - the legal and illegal trade in the meat and other parts of wild animals.

Now, a new United Nations report says sustainable bushmeat harvesting is possible, but only if governments combine new mechanisms for monitoring and law enforcement with new management models, such as community-based management or game-ranching. Finding alternate means of livelihood for residents of forests and other wild lands also will help conserve vanishing species.

Written by Nathalie van Vliet, the report, "Livelihood Alternatives for the Unsustainable Use of Bushmeat," was prepared for the Bushmeat Liaison Group of the Convention on Biological Diversity, with assistance from the wildlife trade monitoring network TRAFFIC and financial support from the European Union.

"I trust that this publication will encourage concrete action to halt the overharvesting of bushmeat and the loss of biodiversity, and thus maintain essential ecosystem services and improve the quality of life for the rural poor in tropical and subtropical countries," said Ahmed Djoghlaf, executive secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Opened for signature in 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, and entering into force in December 1993, the Convention on Biological Diversity is an international treaty for the conservation of biodiversity, all the planet's diverse life forms.

With 193 government Parties, the Convention has near universal participation among countries. The treaty covers the sustainable use of the components of biodiversity and also the equitable sharing of the benefits derived from the use of genetic resources.

"Because bushmeat plays a crucial role in the diets and livelihoods of people, options to reduce harvest levels, other than 'blind banning,' have been investigated both by conservation and development planners," writes van Vliet.

The report addresses small-scale food and income alternatives to bushmeat in tropical and sub-tropical countries based on the sustainable use of biodiversity.

The report was informed by the discussions of experts representing 43 governments and UN agencies, international and national organizations, and indigenous and local community organizations, who met in Nairobi, Kenya in June.

They acknowledged that classic approaches and international efforts are not reversing the growing trend of unsustainable bushmeat harvesting. The report sets forth their recommendations to the international community and to concerned national governments and stakeholders.

"There is compelling evidence that the scale of current hunting is a serious threat to many forest species and ecosystems across the world. This threatens both people and the biodiversity they rely upon," said Steven Broad, executive director of TRAFFIC International.

"The reality in rural Africa, is that for the greater majority of people, bushmeat represents a vital dietary item, but high variations across the continent exist," writes van Vliet.

Estimates of bushmeat harvest across the Congo Basin range between one and five million tonnes a year.

In the Brazilian Amazon, subsistence hunters have been estimated to harvest some 23.5 million individual animals annually for food. The yearly market value of wild game meat harvested by rural populations is estimated at US$191 million, second only to timber as a forest product.

In Asia, the true scale and value of the wildlife trade are unknown, as much of the trade is carried out through informal networks, and not documented in government statistics. Many countries in the region including, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos and Vietnam, act as sources of wildlife that is traded and consumed.

To curtail bushmeat hunting to a sustainable level, the report recommends community wildlife management and other improved wildlife-management approaches, such as game-ranching and hunting tourism.

"Mini-livestock" can be produced on a sustainable basis for food, animal feed and as a source of income, the report recommends. These wild animals, such as bush rodents, guinea pigs, frogs or giant snails, can be raised on small farms or in backyards.

Other alternative livelihoods to bushmeat hunting, such as beekeeping and other sustainable harvests of non-timber forest products, should be supported, the report says.

The report recognizes the need to clarify and define land-tenure and access rights, improve monitoring of bushmeat harvesting and trade, and enhance enforcement of bushmeat-related laws.

"Sustainable utilization of wild resources can both guarantee human well-being and the long-term survival of those animal species targeted for consumption by millions of people worldwide," said Broad. "This study lies at the nexus of conservation and development, biodiversity and human livelihoods."

New report identifies innovative solutions for resolving bushmeat crisis
TRAFFIC 26 Oct 11;

Montreal, 26th October 2011—A new United Nations report says resolving the crisis in the harvesting of bushmeat is possible if governments combine new management models, including community-based management, game-ranching and hunting tourism, with new mechanisms for monitoring and law enforcement.

The report, Livelihood Alternatives for the Unsustainable Use of Bushmeat (PDF, 1.2 MB) (CBD Technical Series No. 60) prepared for the Bushmeat Liaison Group of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), with assistance from TRAFFIC and financial support from the European Union, comes at a time when the overexploitation of wild mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians is increasingly threatening food security and livelihoods in many tropical and subtropical countries and is a major cause of biodiversity loss.

International and domestic commercial, and often illegal, trade in the meat and other parts of wild animals (“bushmeat”) is growing significantly and is replacing legitimate subsistence hunting. Together with population growth, poverty in rural areas and increased urban consumption, the absence of livelihood alternatives to bushmeat hunting and trade is a major factor contributing to unsustainable levels of bushmeat harvesting.

Key recommendations of the report include:
• Implement community wildlife management and other improved wildlife management approaches, such as game-ranching and hunting tourism;
• Increase raising of “mini-livestock'”(wild animals such as cane rats raised in small farms);
• Support sustainable harvesting of non-timber forest products, for example, through bee keeping.

The report also recognizes the need to clarify and define land-tenure and access rights, improve monitoring of bushmeat harvesting and trade, and enhance bushmeat-related law enforcement.
The findings are the results of discussions by 55 experts representing 43 Governments and United Nations agencies, international and national organizations, and indigenous and local-community organizations, who met in Nairobi from 7 to 10 June 2011.

Participants in the meeting recognized that classic approaches and international efforts are not reversing this growing trend of unsustainable bushmeat harvesting, and adopted a set of recommendations to the international community and to concerned national Governments and stakeholders.

Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity, said: “I trust that this publication will encourage concrete action to halt the overharvesting of bushmeat and the loss of biodiversity, and thus maintain essential ecosystem services and improve the quality of life for the rural poor in tropical and subtropical countries.”

Steven Broad, Executive Director of TRAFFIC, said: “Sustainable utilization of wild resources can both guarantee human well-being and the long-term survival of those animal species targeted for consumption by millions of people world-wide. This study lies at the nexus of conservation and development, biodiversity and human livelihoods.”

Livelihood alternatives for the unsustainable use of bushmeat:http://www.cbd.int/doc/publications/cbd-ts-60-en.pdf

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Forests, potential solution in the fight against hunger

More attention to forest foods and services can improve food security in poor nations
FAO 26 Oct 11;

26 October 2011, Rome – The role of forests in providing timber and other wood products must not overshadow their important contribution to feeding many of the world's poorest communities, a group of international forest organizations and secretariats said today.

According to the Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF), of which FAO is an active member, forests can play an even greater role in feeding the world and helping farmers cope with climate change, but their potential to do so is not being fully realized.

With nearly one billion people in the world suffering from chronic hunger, the CPF said the potential of forests and trees to improve food and nutritional security needs more attention from national and regional policymakers and international development agencies.

"Forests and trees on farms are a direct source of food and cash income for more than a billion of the world's poorest people," said FAO Assistant Director-General for Forestry Eduardo Rojas-Briales. "They provide both staple foods and supplemental foods. To enhance these benefits, governments and development partners should increase investments in support of sustainable forest management and rehabilitation of degraded forest lands."

Rojas noted that in India, more than 50 million people depend directly on forests for subsistence, while in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, wild foods are consumed by 80 percent of population on a daily basis.

Nutritional values of forest flora substantial

Forest foods and wild animals form a small but critical contribution to otherwise bland and nutritionally poor diets of rural people. For instance, wild leaves can be an excellent source of vitamins A and C, protein and micronutrients such as calcium and iron. Fruits are especially good sources of minerals and vitamins and contribute significant quantities of calories. A variety of forest plants have edible roots and tubers, which provide carbohydrates and some minerals.

However, forest-dependent wildlife and forest foods are increasingly threatened by overexploitation in many developing countries, causing biodiversity loss and putting food security at risk. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), at a meeting in November 2011, will discuss new measures for improving the sustainable management of wildlife in tropical and sub-tropical countries.

Women also play an important part in the processing of tree and forest products, the income from which helps their families achieve food security. For instance, women use shea as a cooking fat and food accompaniment in West Africa. The harvesting and processing of shea, which is an important ingredient in chocolate and other confectionery, provides rural women with nearly 80 percent of their income.

Emmanuel Ze Meka, Executive Director of the International Tropical Timber Organization, noted, "food products are the fastest growing component of non-timber forest products in many tropical countries. And adding value to the forest makes it more likely to remain forest rather than converted to other uses."

Agroforestry can double yields for smallholder farmers

Agroforestry combines working trees with crop or livestock production and holds great promise for smallholder farmers. These trees are part of the cycle of productivity on farms and provide numerous products, including food for humans and fodder for livestock.

"Agroforestry provides a climate smart agriculture alternative that can increase food production and improve farmers' incomes and living standards," said Tony Simons, Director General of the World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF). "Agroforestry can both mitigate climate change by storing carbon as well as helping farmers become resilient and adapt to unpredictable seasons."

Over 400,000 farmers in Malawi, Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe who practice farming that integrates fertilizer tree systems, have seen food production yields doubled. The World Agroforestry Center plans to scale-up similar programs across Africa and South Asia.

Forests support the agriculture sector

In addition to forests' direct contribution to rural diets, forests also provide environmental services that support sustainable agricultural production - which are hugely valuable but cannot be measured easily.

"While some observers have posed increased forest protection and increased agricultural production as a zero-sum trade-off, in fact forests provide many environmental services — such as those related to pollination, hydrological, and climate moderation — that sustain agricultural productivity," said Frances Seymour, CIFOR Director General.

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Small nations push climate at Commonwealth talks

Karl Malakunas (AFP) Google News 26 Oct 11;

PERTH, Australia — Pacific island and other small countries being punished by global warming will use a Commonwealth summit this week to ramp up pressure on powerful nations in the climate change debate.

Setting the stage for the three-day event, Samoan Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi hit out at major polluters the United States and China for not doing enough to cut their greenhouse gas emissions.

"The most disturbing revelation at our discussions this afternoon includes references to the two biggest countries that... do not seem to be forthcoming in their commitments to restricting their gas emissions," Tuilaepa said.

He also called for rich nations to fulfill their promises to provide small countries with billions of dollars in funds so they can adapt to rising sea waters and extreme weather events that scientists blame on climate change.

Tuilaepa was speaking to reporters late Tuesday after discussing climate change with foreign ministers and other representatives of more than 40 small island and developing Commonwealth nations in Perth.

Tuilaepa said those countries would take a united stance on climate change during the summit of leaders from the 54-nation Commonwealth bloc starting on Friday.

Smaller countries that are most vulnerable to climate change have long complained that their pleas for urgent action are being ignored.

The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), held every two years, is seen as a rare chance for them to have their voices heard above those of powerful nations in the contentious climate change debate.

"Often the countries who are left out of these deliberations are those who are most affected by climate change and the broader challenges of sustainable development," Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd said.

While CHOGM is not expected to produce any direct commitments from countries on fighting climate change, it is a chance to build political momentum ahead of a crucial United Nations summit in South Africa starting next month.

"Political will is a very important aspect in the success of any international process," the Commonwealth secretariat's chief environment adviser, Janet Strachan, told AFP.

"I would not underestimate the impact that face-to-face discussions by heads of state can have."

The UN climate talks in Durban are one of the last chances for world leaders to forge a united stance on fighting climate change before the Kyoto Protocol, which governs greenhouse gas emissions reductions, expires at the end of 2012.

However, the United States did not ratify Kyoto because developing countries, such as China, did not have to commit to targets on cutting emissions.

The United States has said it will boycott any similar agreement that countries try to forge in Durban and beyond.

China, meanwhile, refuses to agree to binding targets, citing the damage such measures would do to its economy and arguing that richer countries have the historic responsibility for the problem.

Amid this debate, Pacific and other small island countries are already reporting dire, and in some cases near catastrophic, climate change consequences.

"Climate change remains the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and well-being of the peoples of the Pacific," leaders from 16 Pacific nations said after their own summit in Auckland last month.

Kiribati President Anote Tong revealed then that his low-lying nation was considering radical solutions to deal with rising seas, such as moving its 100,000-strong population onto man-made floating islands.

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Durban talks come at bad time: UN climate chief

AFP Yahoo News 26 Oct 11;

UN climate talks that begin next month in South Africa coincide with a global financial crisis hurting efforts to raise money to fight climate change, the UN's climate chief said Wednesday.

"This is not the best time to be talking about finance, because all developed countries are in a financial crisis," Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, told a press briefing ahead of the November 28 to December 9 talks in Durban.

She urged developed countries to think of the funds as a long-term need that will outlive the gloomy economic picture currently troubling the euro zone.

"The financial needs of climate, both for adaptation and for mitigation, are not short-term needs. They are long-term needs, and they need to be seen in that respect. The financial crisis is a financial crisis that we have now, but that is not a long-term crisis for the next 20, 30 years," she said.

Negotiators are trying to raise money for a Green Climate Fund that would give $100 billion a year by 2020 to developing countries to help fight climate change and its effects.

The fund was agreed at the 2010 climate talks in Cancun, but negotiators still have to hammer out where the money will come from and how it will be managed.

The other major issue on the agenda at Durban is the future of the Kyoto Protocol, whose current set of carbon curbs expires at the end of 2012.

Officials are calling Durban a make-or-break meeting for the future of the agreement, the only deal to date with legally binding commitments to cut the greenhouse gas emissions that scientists say spell disaster for the planet's health if left unchecked.

The host country's ambassador for the talks rejected the possibility of a new system of legally binding cuts to replace Kyoto, saying a too-ambitious agenda could wreck the negotiations.

"Talk of any legally binding instrument would be irresponsible, very irresponsible," said NJ Mxakato-Diseko, South Africa's ambassador-at-large for the conference.

"To even begin to suggest that the outcome of Durban must be a legally binding instrument would be irresponsible, because it will collapse the system."

Figueres said negotiators need to reach agreement on a "broader mitigation framework" that would combine a second round of Kyoto curbs with commitments from non-Kyoto countries to make comparable cuts.

The world's top two polluters, China and the US, are not part of the Kyoto Protocol's emissions cuts. And Canada, Japan and Russia have all said they will not sign up for a second round.

China Urges Way Out Of "Deadlock" In Durban Climate Talks
David Stanway PlanetArk 27 Oct 11;

China's chief climate official called on developed countries to come up with their own national initiatives to cut carbon emissions in order to avoid "deadlock" at next month's global climate change talks in Durban, South Africa.

Xie Zhenhua, vice-director of the National Development and Reform Commission in charge of China's efforts to combat climate change, said a number of countries were unwilling to participate in a binding new global climate pact once the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol expires at the end of 2012.

He told official news agency Xinhua that some nations were unwilling to take part in a second "commitment period" because countries such as the United States had so far refused to accept legally binding CO2 targets, thus threatening the "environmental integrity" of the Kyoto Protocol.

He suggested "comparable" efforts to reduce emissions by both developed and developing nations could help push negotiations along, even if they were not part of the Kyoto Protocol.

Xie said the talks in Durban were unlikely to produce a massive breakthrough.

"Everyone will be dissatisfied, but everyone will be able to accept it," he was quoted as saying.

He said his proposals had already won support among developing nations.

As part of the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries are subject to binding greenhouse gas emissions targets, but developing countries including China have been exempt under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities."

China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

The European Union has been seeking ways to commit big greenhouse gas producers like China and India to pledge bigger reductions, but Beijing has insisted that industrialized countries should bear most of the burden.

(Editing by Ken Wills)

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Best of our wild blogs: 26 Oct 11

Lost Coast quickly
from wild shores of singapore and Construction at Changi East seawalls

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Javan rhino driven to extinction in Vietnam, conservationists say

Last known Javan rhino in Vietnam has died, leaving only a small population in Indonesia to ensure the species' survival
• Humans driving extinction faster than species can evolve
• UK leads clampdown on rhino horn trade
The Guardian 25 Oct 11;

Poaching has driven the Javan rhinoceros to extinction in Vietnam, leaving the critically endangered species' only remaining population numbering less than 50 on the Indonesian island that gave it its name, the WWF and International Rhino Foundation said on Tuesday.

"The last Javan rhino in Vietnam has gone," said Tran Thi Minh Hien, WWF-Vietnam country director. "It is painful that despite significant investment in the Vietnamese rhino population, conservation efforts failed to save this unique animal. Vietnam has lost part of its natural heritage."

The Javan rhinoceros (Rhinoceros sondaicus annamiticusare) was believed to be extinct in mainland Asia until an individual was killed by hunters in Vietnam's Cat Tien region in 1988, leading to the discovery of a small population that by 2007 numbered just eight. From the mid-1990s, a number of organisations worked to set up habitat protection programmes to safeguard the rhino and its food sources, leading to the establishment of a national park.

But even within a protected area, it has proved extremely difficult to defend the species from illegal hunting. In April 2010, local people reported the discovery of a rhino carcass. A forest patrol team was immediately deployed to the site where they confirmed the dead animal was a Javan rhino. It had a bullet in its leg and its horn had been removed. Rhinos are poached for their horn, which is a highly prized ingredient in traditional medicines, and has recently been lauded as a cure for cancer, despite there being no scientific evidence to support this.

Between 2009 and 2010, in an effort to determine the exact Javan rhinoceros population status in Cat Tien, WWF conducted a field survey, using highly trained sniffer dogs from the US to locate rhino dung samples. The results of DNA analysis conducted on the samples, published today in a new WWF report, have confirmed that all of the dung collected in the park belonged to the same rhino, which was found dead shortly after the survey was completed.

"Reintroduction of the rhinoceros to Vietnam is not economically or practically feasible. It is gone from Vietnam forever," said Christy Williams, WWF's Asian elephant and rhino programme co-ordinator.

The Javan rhinoceros is now believed to be confined to one population, comprising less than 50 individuals, on the island of Java. The species was once was found on Indonesia, and throughout south-east Asia– including India and China, but increasing pressure on its rainforest habitat has put a question mark over the future of the species.

"This makes our work in Indonesia even more critical. We must ensure that what happened to the Javan rhinoceros in Vietnam is not repeated in Indonesia a few years down the line," said Susie Ellis of the International Rhino Foundation.

Illegal hunting to supply the wildlife trade has reduced many species in Vietnam to small and isolated populations. The Indochinese tiger, Asian elephant and endemic species like the saola, Tonkin snub-nosed monkey and Siamese crocodile are on the verge of extinction in the country. Conservationists have warned that inadequate law enforcement and ineffective management of protected areas, and infrastructure development occurring within and close to Vietnam's protected areas will only exert additional pressures on already fragile populations of species.

Inadequate protection causes Javan rhino extinction in Vietnam
WWF 25 Oct 11;

WWF and the International Rhino Foundation (IRF) have confirmed the extinction of the Javan rhinoceros (Rhinoceros sondaicus annamiticus) in Vietnam.

Genetic analysis of 22 dung samples collected by a Cat Tien National Park - WWF survey team from 2009 – 2010 affirm that the samples all belonged to a rhinoceros that was found dead in the park in April 2010, shortly after the survey was completed. The findings, presented in a new WWF report, also point to poaching as the likely cause of the death, as the rhino was found with a bullet in its leg and had its horn removed.

The tragic discovery comes after a 2004 survey conducted by Queen’s University, Canada, that found at least two rhinos living in the park at the time.

“The last Javan rhino in Vietnam has gone,” said Tran Thi Minh Hien, WWF-Vietnam Country Director. “It is painful that despite significant investment in the Vietnamese rhino population conservation efforts failed to save this unique animal. Vietnam has lost part of its natural heritage.”

The rhinoceros was believed to be extinct from mainland Asia until 1988 when an individual was hunted from the Cat Tien area, leading to the discovery of a small population. From the mid-1990s, a number of organizations were involved in efforts to conserve the remaining Javan rhino population in Cat Tien National Park, but the report highlights that ineffective protection by the park was ultimately the cause of the extinction. This is a common problem in most protected areas in Vietnam that threatens the survival of many other species, says WWF.

Illegal hunting to supply the wildlife trade has reduced many species in Vietnam to small and isolated populations. The tiger, Asian elephant and endemic species like the saola, Tonkin snub-nosed monkey and Siamese crocodile are on the verge of extinction in the country.

“The tragedy of the Vietnamese Javan rhinoceros is a sad symbol of this extinction crisis,” said Nick Cox, Manager of WWF’s Species Programme in the Greater Mekong. “The single most important action to conserve Vietnam’s endangered species is protecting their natural habitat and deterring poaching and illegal wildlife trade – the report shows that these actions were inadequate to save the Javan rhino in Vietnam and this continued situation will no doubt lead to the extinction of many more species from Vietnam. Vietnam’s protected areas need more rangers, better training and monitoring, and more accountability.”

WWF recognises that habitat loss played a key role in sealing the fate of the rhino in Vietnam and warns that inadequate law enforcement and ineffective management of protected areas, encroachment and infrastructure development occurring within and close to Vietnam’s protected areas will only exert additional pressures on already fragile populations of species.

“Reintroduction of the rhinoceros to Vietnam is not economically or practically feasible. It is gone from Vietnam forever,” said Christy Williams, WWF’s Asian Elephant​ and Rhino Programme Coordinator.

The Javan rhinoceros is now believed to be confined to one population, less than 50 individuals, in a small national park in Indonesia. The species is critically endangered and with demand for rhino horn for the Asian traditional medicine trade increasing every year, protection and expansion of the Indonesian population is the highest priority.

“This makes our work in Indonesia even more critical. We must ensure that what happened to the Javan rhinoceros in Vietnam is not repeated in Indonesia a few years down the line,” said Susie Ellis of the International Rhino Foundation.

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Two Rivers: The Chance to Export Power Divides Southeast Asia

Jeff Smith For National Geographic News 26 Oct 11;

The Mekong and Irrawaddy rivers, though unconnected and hundreds of miles apart, are both integral to life in Southeast Asia, supporting millions of people and more than 1,200 species of animals, including freshwater dolphins and-in the Mekong-giant catfish.

Now, in an energy-hungry age on the continent, the rivers share another distinction, as wellsprings of financial temptation for the struggling countries that rely on their flow, Laos and Myanmar (Burma). Both countries are grappling with decisions on whether to build massive hydropower dams on the two significant rivers. The projects could put fragile ecology and associated livelihoods at risk, but the dams could help the two countries reap billions of dollars by exporting the megawatts to China and Thailand, two neighbors with rapidly growing energy demand.

For now, it looks like the two nations are taking different paths. In Laos, the government appears to be going ahead with the $3.8 billion Xayaburi dam on the Mekong River-despite opposition by environmental groups, some international donors, and some neighboring countries. In Myanmar, meanwhile, the government shocked many observers last month when it announced it would suspend work on the $3.6 billion Myitsone dam project on the Irrawaddy River. The decision came without notice to its Chinese partner, and just weeks after Myanmar's power minister was adamant the project would go forward. Some observers both within and outside Myanmar are skeptical the suspension will hold.

A Region's Changing Flow

The dams, if completed eventually, would be the first on the mainstreams of the lower Mekong and the Irrawaddy. But China has been building a series of dams on the upper Mekong.

Energy demand has been rising exponentially as the region becomes more prosperous. The money could transform the poorly developed economies of Laos and Myanmar, although many worry the revenues would just enrich the elite.

Scientists and environmentalists are concerned the dams will displace thousands of people, and damage river ecology and the livelihoods of people along the river. They are concerned the dams will lead to additional projects that could have even more devastating impacts.

The dams on the upper Mekong and on the Mekong's tributaries are already triggering changes in river flows.

There are longstanding plans to build as many as 11 additional dams on the Mekong in Laos and Cambodia. Researchers project that if all those dams were built, the impact on wetlands and migratory fish such as the endangered giant catfish could be disastrous.

In addition, 30 percent of the protein sources in Laos and Cambodia would be at risk, according to an environmental assessment (pdf) done for the Mekong River Commission (MRC), an international cooperative body that aims to manage river uses sustainably.

Many poor people living along the Mekong subsist on a diet of rice, fish paste, and some vegetables.

Diana Suhardiman, a research scientist for the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) in Vientiane, Laos, said the issues are complex, with "formal political/environmental agendas, vested interests, desire for economic growth, all mixed up and contextualized into one single dam development." (Suhardiman was speaking about Laos's planned Xayaburi, but Myanmar's Myitsone reflects similar conflicting interests.)

IWMI is one of 15 nonprofit research centers collectively known as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, funded by 60 governments, private foundations and international organizations.

Potential Financial Gains Immense

Laos and Myanmar stand to benefit immensely from hydroelectric plants.

Laos-long referred to as a potential "battery" for the region-would primarily sell power from the 1,260-megawatt Xayaburi to neighboring Thailand. If Laos eventually moves ahead with all six of its planned foreign investor-financed dams on the Mekong, it could generate more than $2.5 billion a year in revenue, according to estimates.

Myanmar's suspended Myitsone project was envisioned to have a capacity of 6,000 megawatts, nearly the size of the largest hydroelectric plants in the United States and Russia.

Myanmar was under contract with the state-owned China Power Investment Corporation to sell 90 percent of Myitsone's power to China and reap an estimated $500 million of revenue a year. There also was an agreement between the two countries for six additional large dams in the region.

But the economic costs could be steep as well. Although there is no similar analysis of the potential impact of Myitsone, this issue as it pertains to the Mekong River has been studied intensively.

Losses from the damage to the fisheries and agricultural industries on the Mekong could reach $500 million a year if planned dams are completed, according to the environmental assessment done for the Mekong River Commission (MRC). The lower Mekong strategy began during the Cold War, when the United States, Soviet Union, and China similarly envisioned large hydropower dams for economic development. However, costs, water management disputes, and conflicts such as the Vietnam War impeded the plans. (A 1,070-megawatt hydropower plant recently was completed on the Nam Theun River in Laos with the backing of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank.)

In 1995, the Mekong River Commission, originally a United Nations body but now an independent international oversight organization, was reformed with an agreement that its four member countries-Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam-would discuss the 12-dam Mekong River plan before any decisions were made. But the MRC has no legal authority.

Laos earlier paid heed to the process and opposition by such neighboring countries as Vietnam. But the Laotian government apparently has chosen to ignore the MRC's April consensus to delay a decision on Xayaburi.

Laotian energy ministry officials didn't respond to a query. In July, a letter leaked to the environmental organization International Rivers revealed that the government told its Thai partner that the study process had been completed. Construction work at the dam site has been proceeding for months, says International Rivers, a nonprofit that works to protect rivers and the people who live along those rivers.

Complex Environmental Impacts

The Mekong has been researched extensively, but the impacts of large hydroelectric development can be complex. The potential for damage depends on the location of the facility in the river system, said Tira Foran, a research scientist who has studied the Mekong for years and is now with the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization in Canberra.

Hydropower dams redistribute river flows; dry season flows generally increase, and monsoon peak flows generally decrease. Theoretically that can lead to better flood control in the wet season, and benefit irrigation during the dry season. But a hydropower operator's first priority is to produce electricity, not to prevent floods or irrigate dry season crops.

Researchers project that dams and the changing water flows on the lower Mekong will have significant, negative impacts on river ecology. Preliminary research indicates the impact on migratory fish is potentially catastrophic and unlikely to be mitigated by fish ladders and other technology.

Foran and other researchers also note the Tonle Sap wetlands area in Cambodia-which bulges in size during the wet season-may be threatened. The Tonle Sap is one of the most bountiful inland fisheries in the world. During the monsoon season, the Mekong River swells and exerts such a force of water that the Tonle Sap tributary reverses direction and floods the lake.

Similar conclusions have been made for the Myitsone in Myanmar, with devastating impacts predicted for many species of migratory fish.

In Myanmar, a Case of Unity

Activist groups long have opposed dam building on Southeast Asia's main rivers.

Opposition in Myanmar came from an unusually passionate discourse in a country that has had a civilian government since early this year, but where a military junta remains in firm control.

The Irrawaddy has a special place in the hearts of the Burmese and in their folklore. One local legend describes the Irrawaddy being formed by water poured from two gold cups by a great spirit sitting in the Himalayas. (The Irrawaddy starts at the confluence of two smaller rivers fed from the Himalayan region.)

The Burmese tested the boundaries of a limited democracy by speaking out against the dam, holding art and photo exhibitions, and circulating a petition to stop the dam. Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who was freed from house arrest last year, has spoken out against the project.

In a surprise turn of events last month, President Thein Sein, in a letter to parliamentarians, suspended work on the Myitsone, saying the government would respect the wishes of its people. He added the project could damage the natural beauty of the area, the livelihoods of local people, and agricultural plantations.

Other factors besides public pressure may have been at play as well.

An environmental impact assessment commissioned by the Chinese power company and recently released concluded such a massive project wasn't needed.

Fighting has been intense between the Myanmar army and an ethnic Kachin army in the region, according to reports by the Kachin News Group. Some Burmese observers note there may have been concerns that the Chinese were exerting too much power over Myanmar's affairs; there may be hopes that the West will ease sanctions against the country.

(The United States already has made signals it may do so not just because of the Myitsone suspension but because Myanmar has released some political dissidents, has relaxed its control over the media, and has made other "welcome" gestures that signal "a trend toward greater openness," a U.S. State Department official said in a briefing this month.

Whatever the motive or combination of motives, Burmese see the dam suspension as a milestone.

"Irrawaddy has become the first issue on which the government, opposition and the people have become united since the 1962 coup," Yangon journalist Ye Naing Moe wrote in an email. "It could be public pressure or it could be the so-called new civilian government's effort in seeking legitimacy. Anti-Chinese sentiment could be a part of it as well. Anyway, the decision to suspend Myitsone dam has encouraged Myanmar people to keep pushing forward and has taught the government that being loved by the people is good."

Ye Naing Moe traveled to the area in late 2009 with a group of journalists to document and photograph the Irrawaddy as it was before the dam was built. Their efforts were made into a photo book called "Sketch of a River: Irrawaddy," which was published recently as part of an art and photo exhibition.

Uncertain Futures

It's unclear what will happen next in Laos and Myanmar.

Activist groups hope that Laos reconsiders its decision.

"The decisions now are being made without knowledge but with politics," said Pianporn Deetes, Thailand campaign coordinator for International Rivers. "They forget that livelihoods and food security of millions are at stake."

In Myanmar, hundreds of Chinese and Burmese construction workers have left the area but some remain, according to the Kachin Development Network Group. Fighting between the ethnic Kachin army and the Myanmar army has continued, the Kachin News Group has reported.

More than 2,000 people living near the dam site already have been relocated to "model villages," according to the government's New Light of Myanmar newspaper. Aung San Suu Kyi in August said 12,000 people had been relocated.

An ethnic Kachin, who asked that her name not be used because of security concerns, said she has heard from villagers that they can't grow anything on their soil because it is covered with rocks or gravel, and they feel separated from their homelands. But she said she doesn't know whether they will try to go home.

Deetes of International Rivers said there's a window of opportunity to pressure the government to be more transparent and to consider more responsible development and environmental standards. The Burmese people also hope for greater openness.

"People want the transparency because they are not sure how much they will benefit from the project," Aung Htun U, a consultant, said in an email from Yangon. Like many, he's skeptical the Myitsone dam project is dead for good.

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Climate: which nations, cities most at risk?

Marlowe Hood AFP Yahoo News 26 Oct 11;

A third of humanity, mostly in Africa and South Asia, face the biggest risks from climate change but rich nations in northern Europe will be least exposed, according to a report released Wednesday.

Bangladesh, India and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are among 30 countries with "extreme" exposure to climate shift, according to a ranking of 193 nations by Maplecroft, a British firm specialising in risk analysis.

Five Southeast Asian nations -- Indonesia, Myanmar, Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia -- are also in the highest category, partly because of rising seas and increasing severe tropical storms.

Maplecroft's tool, the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), looks at exposure to extreme weather events such as drought, cyclones, wildfires and storm surges, which translate into water stress, loss of crops and land lost to the sea.

How vulnerable a society is to these events is also measured, along with a country's potential to adapt to future climate change-related hazards.

Of 30 nations identified in the new report as at "extreme" risk from climate change, two-thirds are in Africa and all are developing countries.

Africa is especially exposed to drought, severe flooding and wildfires, the report says.

"Many countries there are particularly vulnerable to even relatively low exposure to climate events," said Charlie Beldon, co-author of the study.

Weak economies, inadequate healthcare and corrupt governance also leave little margin for absorbing climate impacts.

At the other end of the spectrum, Iceland, Finland, Ireland, Sweden and Estonia top the list of nations deemed to be least at risk.

With the exception of Israel and oil-rich Qatar and Bahrain, the 20 least vulnerable countries are in northern and central Europe.

China and the United States -- the world's No. 1 and No. 2 carbon emitters -- are in the "medium" and "low" risk categories, respectively.

In a parallel analysis of major cities at risk, Maplecroft pointed to Dhaka, Addis Ababa, Manila, Calcutta and the Bangladesh city of Chittagong as being most exposed.

Three other Indian metropolitan areas -- Chennai, Mumbai and New Delhi -- were listed as being at "high" risk.

"Vulnerability to climate change has the potential to undermine future development, particularly in India," Beldon observed.

Recent studies -- reviewed in a special report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), due out next month -- point to strengthening evidence of links between global warming and extreme weather events.

Record droughts in Australia and Africa, floods in Pakistan and central America, and fires in Russia and the United States may all be fuelled in part by climate change, some experts say.

Current warming trends are on track to boost average global temperatures by 3.0 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, according to some predictions.

Asia, Africa Megacities Top Climate Change Risk Survey
David Fogarty PlanetArk 27 Oct 11;

Rapidly growing megacities in Africa and Asia face the highest risks from rising sea levels, floods and other climate change impacts, says a global survey aimed at guiding city planners and investors.

The study by risk analysis and mapping firm Maplecroft, released on Wednesday, comes as the United Nations says the world's population will hit seven billion next week and as huge floods inundate areas of Thailand and the capital Bangkok.

The survey ranks nearly 200 nations in terms of vulnerability to climate change over the medium term.

It also ranks the top-20 fastest-growing cities by 2020 in terms of risk, with the study based on a series of indices. The survey maps the world in 25-square-km segments according to vulnerability, making regional assessments easier.

Haiti is the country most at risk from climate change, while Iceland is the least vulnerable. Thailand is ranked 37th.

Dhaka, capital of Bangladesh, is the megacity most at risk with an "extreme" ranking. Other megacities at extreme or high risk include Manila, Kolkata, Jakarta, Kinshasa, Lagos, Delhi and Guangzhou.

"Population growth in these cities combines with poor government effectiveness, corruption, poverty and other socio-economic factors to increase the risks to residents and business," said Maplecroft.

CONSEQUENCES

"The impacts of this could have far reaching consequences, not only for local populations, but on business, national economies and on the balance sheets of investors around the world, particularly as the economic importance of these nations is set to dramatically increase," Charlie Beldon, Maplecroft's principal environmental analyst, said in a statement.

Maplecroft analyses the exposure of populations to climate related natural hazards and sensitivity of countries in terms of population concentration, development, natural resources, agricultural dependency and conflict. They also rank in terms of a country's, city's or region's ability to adapt.

The maps highlight areas within countries that might be more vulnerable, allowing risks to towns, cities, economic zones and individual company assets to be identified.

For instance, Manila, as the Philippines' commercial center, is extremely vulnerable because of its huge population, rapid growth -- estimated to add another 2.2 million people between 2010 and 2020 -- risk from flooding and storms and the likely increase in these disasters. Rainfall intensity is likely to increase in tropical Asia, climate scientists say.

Highlighting the areas of great risk also offered investment opportunities.

"Changing demands for goods and services can present opportunities for new products or innovative modifications to existing ones," Maplecroft says.

Globally, many other cities were also vulnerable to climate change, Maplecroft said, but better governance, greater wealth and better policies meant they were more able to adapt.

"It is not only cities in the developing world that are at risk from the potential effects of climate change," Beldon told Reuters in an email. "For example, the floods that struck Brisbane (Australia) in early 2011 illustrate the potential of hazards to cause devastation even in a developed country."

Miami still ranked at a high risk as does Singapore, while New York and Sydney were medium and London was a low risk.

Bangkok ranked extreme, and the Thai government has created a $10.6 billion budget to rebuild after the current floods subside.

(Editing by Nick Macfie)

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Water Use Rising Faster Than World Population

Deborah Zabarenko PlanetArk 26 Oct 11;

Like oil in the 20th century, water could well be the essential commodity on which the 21st century will turn.

Human beings have depended on access to water since the earliest days of civilization, but with 7 billion people on the planet as of October 31, exponentially expanding urbanization and development are driving demand like never before.

Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century, said Kirsty Jenkinson of the World Resources Institute, a Washington think tank.

Water use is predicted to increase by 50 percent between 2007 and 2025 in developing countries and 18 percent in developed ones, with much of the increased use in the poorest countries with more and more people moving from rural areas to cities, Jenkinson said in a telephone interview.

Factor in the expected impacts of climate change this century -- more severe floods, droughts and shifts from past precipitation patterns -- that are likely to hit the poorest people first and worst "and we have a significant challenge on our hands," Jenkinson said.

Will there be enough water for everyone, especially if population continues to rise, as predicted, to 9 billion by mid-century?

"There's a lot of water on Earth, so we probably won't run out," said Rob Renner, executive director of the Colorado-based Water Research Foundation.

"The problem is that 97.5 percent of it is salty and ... of the 2.5 percent that's fresh, two-thirds of that is frozen. So there's not a lot of fresh water to deal with in the world."

WATER RISK HOT SPOTS

Over a billion people lack access to clean drinking water, and over 2 billion live without adequate sanitation, leading to the deaths of 5 million people, mostly children, each year from preventable waterborne disease, Renner said.

Only 8 percent of the planet's fresh water supply goes to domestic use and about 70 percent is used for irrigation and 22 percent in industry, Jenkinson said.

Droughts and insufficient rainfall contribute to what's known as water risk, along with floods and contamination.

Hot spots of water risk, as reported in the World Resources Institute's Aqueduct online atlas here , include:

-- Australia's Murray-Darling basin;

-- the Colorado River basin in the U.S. Southwest;

-- the Orange-Senqu basin, covering parts of South Africa, Botswana and Namibia and all of Lesotho;

-- and the Yangtze and Yellow river basins in China.

What is required, Jenkinson said, is integrated water resource management that takes into account who needs what kind of water, as well as where and how to use it most efficiently.

"Water is going to quickly become a limiting factor in our lifetimes," said Ralph Eberts, executive vice president of Black & Veatch, a $2.3 billion engineering business that designs water systems and operates in more than 100 countries.

He said he sees a "reprioritization" of resources to address the water challenges posed by changing climate and growing urbanization.

Eberts' company is not alone. Water scarcity and water stress -- which occurs when demand for water exceeds supply or when poor quality restricts use -- has already hit water-intensive companies and supply chains in Russia, China and across the southern United States.

INVESTORS TAKE NOTE

At the same time, extreme floods have had severe economic impacts in Australia, Pakistan and the U.S. Midwest, according to Ceres, a coalition of large investors and environmental groups that targeted water risk as an issue that 21st century businesses will need to address.

"The centrality of fresh water to our needs for food, for fuel, for fiber is taking center stage in what has become a crowded, environmentally stressed world," said Ceres President Mindy Lubber.

A Ceres database lets institutional investors know which companies are tackling water risk. Nestle and Rio Tinto were seen as leading the way.

Water risk is already affecting business at apparel maker The Gap, which cut its profit forecast by 22 percent after drought cut into the cotton crop in Texas.

Similarly, independent gas producer Toreador Resources saw its stock price drop 20 percent after France banned shale-gas fracturing, primarily over concerns about water quality.

Food giants Kraft Foods Inc Sara Lee Corp and Nestle all announced planned price rises to offset higher commodity prices caused by droughts, flooding and other factors.

Water risk is more than a corporate concern. For international aid groups, it poses a risk of disaster for those in the path of increasing drought or rising uncertainty about water supplies.

In East Africa, for example, a changing climate could bring changes in temperature and precipitation that would shorten the growing season and cut yields of staple crops like maize and beans, hitting small farmers and herders hardest, according to an Oxfam report.

A scientific analysis of 30 countries called the Challenge Program on Water and Food offered hope. It found that major river basins in Africa, Asia and Latin America could double food production in the next few decades if those upstream work with those downstream to efficiently use the water they have.

(Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)

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Crowded, stretched world awaits 7 billionth baby

* Population booms in developing nations
* Birth rates fall in richer countries
* Resource scarcity, rapid urbanisation key challenges
* World population may peak at about 9 billion by 2070
Nita Bhalla Reuters 25 Oct 11;

BAGHPAT, India, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The world's 7 billionth person will be born into a population more aware than ever of the challenges of sustaining life on a crowded planet but no closer to a consensus about what to do about it.

To some demographers the milestone foreshadows turbulent times ahead: nations grappling with rapid urbanisation, environmental degradation and skyrocketing demand for healthcare, education, resources and jobs.

To others, a shrinking population, not overpopulation, could be the longer-term challenge as fertility rates drop and a shrinking workforce is pushed to support social safety for an ageing populace.

"There are parts of the world where the population is shrinking and in those parts of the world, they are worried about productivity, about being able to maintain a critical mass of people," Babatunde Osotimehin, executive director of the U.N. Population Fund, told Reuters.

"Then there are parts of the world where the population is growing rapidly. Many of these countries face challenges in terms of migration, poverty, food security, water management and climate change and we need to call attention to it."

The United Nations says the world's seven billionth baby will be born on Oct. 31.

No-one knows what circumstances the baby will be born into, but India's Uttar Pradesh -- a sugarcane-producing state with a population that combines that of Britain, France and Germany, in a country expected to overtake China as the world's most populous by 2030 -- provides a snapshot of the challenges it could face.

Pinky Pawar, 25, is due to give birth in Uttar Pradesh at the end of the month and is hoping her firstborn will not join the estimated 3 billion people living on less than $2 a day, with little hope of an education or a job.

"I want my child to be successful in life, so I must do my best to make this possible," she said, her hands over her swollen belly as she sat outside her mud and brick home in Sunhaida village.

In Sunhaida, poverty, illiteracy and social prejudice mark a life dominated by the struggle for survival that mirrors millions of others across the world.

RESOURCE CRUNCH

With the number of people on earth more than doubling over the last half-century, resources are under more strain than ever before.

First among the short-term worries is how to provide basic necessities for the additional 2-3 billion people expected to be added in the next 50 years.

Water usage is set to increase by 50 percent between 2007 and 2025 in developing nations and 18 percent in developed ones, with much of the increased use in the poorest countries as rising rural populations move to towns and cities.

"The problem is that 97.5 percent of it (water) is salty and ... of the 2.5 percent that's fresh, two-thirds of that is frozen," says Rob Renner, executive director of the Colorado-based Water Research Foundation.

"So there's not a lot of fresh water to deal with in the world."

Nutritious food is in short supply in many parts of the globe. The World Bank says 925 million people are hungry today, partly due to rising food prices since 1995, a succession of economic crises and the lack of access to modern farming techniques and products for poor farmers.

To feed the two billion more mouths predicted by 2050, food production will have to increase by 70 percent, the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organisation says.

But just as research, development and expansion of agricultural programs are critical, the public dollars pledged to this effort remain a pittance of what is needed, and are in fact in danger of sharp decline, experts say.

"We have to raise productivity," Robert Thompson, who serves on the International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council and is former director of rural development for the World Bank. "I think we can do it all if we invest enough in research. But at the moment we aren't."

Climate change could be the greatest impediment to meeting the food target as rising temperatures and droughts dry out farmlands which are then inundated by intense floods and storms.

The way climate change has been handled offers a window on how tricky it is to tackle global, long-term problems, however.

While it's clear what needs to be done, U.N. climate talks have largely stalled.

"There is a reason why these negotiations are relatively slow," said Wendel Trio, director of Climate Action Network Europe, referring to the economic downturn and arguments between rich and poor nations over carbon cuts.

"But if you compare it to the urgency and the fact that many governments clearly understand the urgency, it is a failure of governments that they can't move forward."

CITIES BURSTING AT SEAMS

Experts say demographic imbalances will also place serious strains on towns and cities across the world as mostly middle-class blue-collar migrants move from poorer rural areas to richer urban centres.

China's capital Beijing -- with its almost 20 million inhabitants -- is now the world's 13th most populous city, its population almost doubling over the last decade, reflecting a trend mirrored worldwide, particularly in developing nations.

Cities in Africa, Asia and South America are bursting at the seams from migrants seeking better jobs or as farmers flee droughts, floods and other environmental disasters.

In 1950, about 730 million people lived in cities. By 2009, it was nearly 3.5 billion and in four decades it will be 6.3 billion, the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in a March 2010 report.

That explosive growth stretches limited resources and infrastructure and places megacities on a collision course with a predicted increase in extreme flooding, storms and rising sea levels from climate change, U.N. Habitat says.

Experts say the lack of coordinated planning is exacerbating the problem.

"Any kind of plan for decentralising the population requires a series of policies that work together," said Wang Jianguo, a senior project officer on urbanisation at the Asian Development Bank's Beijing office.

"If you only have a population policy without an employment policy, without an industry development policy, education, medical policy, it won't work."

DEMOGRAPHIC ANOMALY

One important policy tool to manage a growing population is to give women access to family planning, experts say, adding that 215 million women worldwide want it but do not get it.

Access to education is also important as it motivates women to reduce their fertility and improve their children's health.

A lack of such education has meant that while the overall populations continue to rise in countries such as China and India, the number of women is falling because of a preference for boys leading to deliberate abortions of female babies.

The world is also seeing a demographic anomaly: a declining population in some richer countries has led to an imbalance between the working population and retirees who need expensive social safety nets.

The global fertility rate -- the number of children born per couple -- is around 2.5, but in richer countries this number has already nosedived.

And while exact predictions vary, most suggest the global population will peak at around 9 billion around 2070 and then start to fall, perhaps very fast.

"We thought that overpopulation was going to force humanity to expand outward to the stars," says Jack Goldstone, professor of social science and a leading demographics expert at Washington's George Mason University.

"That doesn't look like the problem at all. And the policy framework isn't set up at all to handle these longer-term issues."

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