Botswana fishermen fear tourist invasion will destroy Okavango wilderness

Villagers say visitors to delta are a threat to wildlife and their fishing industry
David Smith, The Observer 22 Nov 09;

Music, dancing and smiling platitudes greeted the royal guest in the fishing village of Samochima, northern Botswana. But cutting through the convivial mood was a cry of anguish – and a plea for a way of life threatened by tourism in the world's largest inland delta.

Crown Prince Haakon of Norway had arrived as a goodwill ambassador for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). While addressing an audience in the shade of some fig trees, he was confronted by a local fisherman, Saoshiko Njwaki, who spoke out bluntly about growing resentment at the world's indifference to their plight.

"Tourists are allowed to go into the delta without local guides," Njwaki told the prince. "This is worrying to us because no one knows what they might do." It was only because of the intervention of a local conservation body that "all-out war" with tour operators had been averted, he said.

At stake is no ordinary prize. The Okavango Delta is a watery wilderness of channels, lagoons and islands that empty into the Kalahari desert. Its 16,000 sq km of swamps are filled with birds, crocodiles, elephants, hippos, lions and an abundance of other wildlife.

It is also Botswana's premier tourist attraction. For years the southern African country has restricted visitor numbers to preserve its habitat. But the government now sees tourism as crucial to a diversified economy that cannot depend on diamonds for ever. The fishermen who rely on the delta for their livelihoods accuse tourists of riding roughshod over their needs and jeopardising the fragile ecosystem.

Njwaki, who as chairman of the Okavango Fishers Association represents 400 commercial fishermen and women, said: "Tourists normally come here to see nature and for casual fishing, but they should do it in an orderly way. As people living here, we are very conscious of conserving our environment, but tourists come with their boats and disturb it. It causes problems for us and it affects the wildlife."

The fishermen's age-old mode of transport is the makoro, a canoe hollowed out from a tree trunk that glides along the waterways. It is helpless against the waves generated by tourists' motorboats.

"They don't respect us," Njwaki said. "When they come in motorboats they don't slow down for fishermen who are using dugout canoes. They also cut our nets. We have a further problem of houseboats. People pitch up to camp and throw their waste in the river. We formed our association to address these concerns, so they will do things properly with tour guides."

He said the association had appealed to the government for support, but without success. "We want tourism to be controlled, but the Water Affairs Ministry has been unable to tell us how to do it. We don't have a problem with people coming, but we need regulation. It shouldn't just be floodgates opening to people to do what they like."

About 120,000 tourists visit the delta every year for attractions including the Moremi Game Reserve, more than a hundred camps and lodges and the rock paintings of the Tsodilo Hills.

Tour operators in Samochima reject the fishermen's arguments and accuse them of hurting local ecology by over-fishing. David Pryce, of the nearby Shakawe Lodge, described the criticism of tourists as "racist", adding: "When people are in the wrong, they like to find an excuse to blame someone else."

He estimated that the fish population in this part of the delta had dropped by 80% over the past 10 to 15 years and blamed the use of fishing nets bought with Norwegian donor aid. "I'd say tiger fish are down to 20% of what they were," Pryce said. "Now we don't promote fishing at all for visitors. We changed our name from Shakawe Fishing Lodge to Shakawe Lodge."

Preservation of the delta is a primary aim of the Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre at Botswana University. It admits that there are "many questions" about the gains and drawbacks of tourism. It has called for greater efforts to share the benefits with poor people.

Dr Nkobi Moleele, the centre's national project co-ordinator, said: "I don't think there's a problem of too many tourists or how they behave, but there is a problem with our [management] system. Samochima is an open-access area: you can take your boat there and do whatever you want. This doesn't give communities the power to plan and agree how to do things. We don't know the numbers in these open-access areas because it's not controlled. That's the problem."

Botswana is the world's biggest diamond producer and reaps half its revenue from the gem stones. But the global economic crisis has caused their value to plummet and concentrated minds on finding alternatives. Experts predict that Botswana's diamond reserves will run out in 20 years, a time-bomb under one of Africa's most successful economies and stable democracies.

Ian Khama, the country's British-born president, said after his re-election last month: "We have always appreciated that our dependence on diamonds as a major revenue earner leaves us vulnerable, and therefore the need to diversify is very important."

Tourism, the second biggest economic sector, is ripe for growth. In the past, Botswana has styled itself as one of Africa's best kept secrets, pursuing a strategy of high-value, low-volume travellers. But earlier this year a 94m pula (£8.6m) expansion was announced, including a website aimed at the lucrative US market.

During his trip, Prince Haakon said he hoped the UNDP could help the rival factions reach a compromise. "It's all about balance so the tourism and fishing industries can find ways of working out their differences through democratic processes and peaceful means," he said.

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Shop Green? Global Survey Lists Top Eco-Friendly Retailers

PlanetArk 24 Nov 09;

SYDNEY -Eco-friendly managers and staff are the key to making a retailer go green, according to a study listing 15 of the world's top eco-friendly retailers in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia.

Researchers in Canada, Scotland, Japan, Spain and France interviewed 200 retailers to look at best environmental practices and help the industry in adopting sustainable practices that can also enhance their bottom line.

The researchers narrowed the list down to 15, finding that Mountain Equipment Co-op, IKEA Canada, Walmart and Home Depot were among the list of the leading green businesses in Canada.

They listed H-E-B in the United States, LUSH, Marks & Spencer, Alliance Boots, Monsoon and Tesco in Britain, Musgrave Group in Ireland, Monoprix and Carrefour in France, Aeon in Japan, and Woolworths in Australia.

Using solar panels and geothermal heating for energy sources and creating "eco ambassadors" to lead initiatives were some of the "green" activities underway but a common thread was the involvement of staff and managers.

"There has to be a commitment and passion from the CEO or senior management in order to implement sustainable practices," researcher Wendy Evans from Ryerson University's Ted Rogers School of Retail Management, Toronto, Canada, said in a statement.

"Once you have that in place, you can roll out a long-term plan that will benefit your company -- and win you more customers, who are demanding companies be more environmentally responsible."

Other common threads in the report published by Ryerson University's Center for the Study of Commercial Activity (CSCA) were recruiting external advisers to help develop an eco-friendly strategy, assigning staff with environmental responsibilities, and regularly updating sustainability policies and achievements.

The study found that energy and waste top the list of what companies measure for environmental reasons, with 80 percent of companies tracking the amount of waste produced, CO2 emissions, transportation and water usage.

But return on investment was also a central focus, with both large and small retailers aware that sustainability provides a healthy return on investment and further differentiates their business.

The three main approaches to measuring success was cost savings, carbon emissions reduction and revenue generation.

However the report, which also involved researchers from Scotland's University of Stirling, France's University of Metz, Japan's Hitotsubashi University and Spain's ESADE, said it was important to recognize and address barriers that might prevent retailers from adopting sustainable practices.

Externally, these included being located in an area without recycling while internally this could include lack of a champion, complicated technical language and a lack of knowledge.

(Editing by Miral Fahmy)

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Shoppers Going Green Despite Struggling Economy

Basil Katz, PlanetArk 23 Nov 09;

NEW YORK - Despite the worst U.S. recession in decades, sales of organic and sustainable products have continued to grow, experts say, with shoppers willing to spend a few more dollars in a bid to become more green.

U.S. supermarket sales of environmentally sustainable or "ethical" products -- from energy-efficient light bulbs to organic produce -- will rise about 8.7 percent in 2009 to nearly $38 billion, according to a recent study by Packaged Facts, a market research provider.

President Barack Obama's commitment to tackle climate change, a string of scandals over tainted food and effective marketing of sustainable products have helped convince more Americans, whose environmental credentials lag behind Europeans, to buy green.

"I've been reading about carbon footprints," said Lindsey Hoffman, 24, as she selected organic lettuce at a Whole Foods Market in Manhattan, "and though I'd prefer to go to a farmer's market, this is better than anything else."

"When I walked in I saw gorgeous asparagus, but as it's $4 a bunch and flown in from Peru, I stayed away," she said.

While sustainable and organic goods have traditionally occupied the premium shelves of supermarkets, an increasing number of retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc and Safeway Inc have expanded their offerings and some prices now rival conventional products.

Some experts say the global economic crisis and the battle against global warming have prompted consumers to think more about purchases -- both financially and environmentally.

"The financial crisis reminded people of the unintended consequences of collective behavior," said Scott Bearse of Deloitte Consulting, who added that once people go green, they generally stay green.

Shelly Balanko at the Hartman Group, a marketing consulting firm that specializes in sustainable goods, said shoppers were realizing that green products offered better quality, along with causing less harm to the environment.

She said buyers now thought, "'If I buy this, it will be less wasteful and I'm going to get good value for my dollar.'"

Some companies are appealing to these lifestyle changes, such as Kimberly Clark, one of the largest manufacturers of paper towels and diapers, which launched Scott Naturals, a paper products line using recycled fibers.

"There is much more of an interest in this in the last couple of years," said Kimberly Clark spokeswoman Kay Jackson.

Americans spent a total of $511.9 billion on groceries at drugstores, supermarkets and mass retailers in 2008. So far this year shoppers have spent 1.9 percent more than the same period a year ago.

Sales of goods specifically labeled organic rose 17 percent to $24.6 billion in 2008, according to the Organic Trade Association.

"The more I read and hear about it, the more I'd like to go completely organic, 100 percent," said Richard Drew, 35, a television producer, as he shopped at a natural body care shop in Manhattan.

(Editing by Michelle Nichols and Vicki Allen)

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Harnessing the power of salt, Norway tries osmotic power

Pierre-henry Deshayes Yahoo News 23 Nov 09;

OSLO (AFP) – After wind, sun, currents and tides, a company is preparing to make clean electricity by harnessing another natural phenomenon, the energy-unleashing encounter of freshwater and seawater.

Taking a step further in the planet's hunt for clean power, Norway is to unveil on Tuesday the world's first prototype of an osmotic power plant on the banks of the Oslo fjord.

The project is small-scale but could prove the great potential of osmotic energy.

"It is a form of renewable energy which, unlike solar or wind power, produces a predictable and stable amount of energy regardless of the weather," explained Stein Erik Skilhagen, in charge of the project at state-owned Statkraft, which specialises in renewable energies.

Osmotic energy is based on the principle that nature is constantly seeking balance, and plays on the different concentration levels of liquids.

When freshwater and seawater meet on either side of a membrane -- a thin layer that retains salt but lets water pass -- freshwater is drawn towards the seawater side. The flow puts pressure on the seawater side, and that pressure can be used to drive a turbine, producing electricity.

The phenomenon of osmosis is widespread in nature, permitting plants to drink through their leaves, and is used by industry to desalinate seawater. But the Norwegian experiment, a prototype that will produce just enough electricity to power a coffee-maker, will be the first time osmosis is used to make power.

"What's important for now is to test and validate the technology, not to produce a lot" of electricity, Skilhagen said of the two to four kilowatts (KW) the plant will likely produce at first.

And Statkraft's aspirations for osmotic power go far beyond the prototype, set up in a former chlorine factory in Hurum, about 60 kilometers (37 miles) south of Oslo.

The company hopes to have a commercial-size plant up and running by 2015, producing about 25 megawatts (MW) of electricity, or enough for 10,000 homes.

And it says osmotic power has a global potential of 1,700 terawatt hour (TWh) annually, equivalent to half the current power production in Europe or China's total energy consumption for 2002.

Statkraft itself admits there is still a long way to go, starting with finding how to make more energy-efficient membranes.

The ones tested at the Hurum plant will have an efficiency level of less than 1 watt per square metre. The company says it plans to install membranes that can deliver 2-3 watts per square meter after some time, but an efficiency level of 5 watts per square meter is needed to make osmotic power profitable.

"It is definitely a point to work on," said Gerald Pourcelly of the European Membrane Institute, adding that time could bring the efficiency level of membranes to 5 or 6 watts per square meter.

Nevertheless, "everything that contributes to the development of renewable energy sources is positive," the scientist stressed, "considering the progression of carbon dioxide emissions and dwindling fossil fuel reserves."

Norway Opens World's First Osmotic Power Plant
Wojciech Moskwa, PlanetArk 24 Nov 09;

TOFTE - Norway opened on Tuesday the world's first osmotic power plant, which produces emissions-free electricity by mixing fresh water and sea water through a special membrane.

State-owned utility Statkraft's prototype plant, which for now will produce a tiny 2-4 kilowatts of power or enough to run a coffee machine, will enable Statkraft to test and develop the technology needed to drive down production costs.

The plant is driven by osmosis that naturally draws fresh water across a membrane and toward the seawater side. This creates higher pressure on the sea water side, driving a turbine and producing electricity.

"While salt might not save the world alone, we believe osmotic power will be an interesting part of the renewable energy mix of the future," Statkraft Chief Executive Baard Mikkelsen told reporters.

Statkraft, Europe's largest producer of renewable energy with experience in hydropower that provides nearly all of Norway's electricity, aims to begin building commercial osmotic power plants by 2015.

The main issue is to improve the efficiency of the membrane from around 1 watt per square meter now to some 5 watts, which Statkraft says would make osmotic power costs comparable to those from other renewable sources.

The prototype, on the Oslo fjord and about 60 km (40 miles) south of the Norwegian capital, has about 2,000 square meters of membrane.

Future full-scale plants producing 25 MW of electricity, enough to provide power for 30,000 European households, would be as large as a football stadium and require some 5 million square meters of membrane, Statkraft said.

Once new membrane "architecture" is solved, Statkraft believes the global production capacity for osmotic energy could amount to 1,600-1,700 TWh annually, or about half of the European Union's total electricity demand.

Europe's osmotic power potential is seen at 180 TWh, or about 5 percent of total consumption -- which could help the bloc reach renewable energy goals set to curb emissions of heat-trapping gases and limit global warming.

Osmotic power, which can be located anywhere where clean fresh water runs into the sea, is seen as more reliable than more variable wind or solar energy.

A summit in Copenhagen next month is due to agree on a U.N. pact to combat climate change by promoting clean energies and a shift from fossil fuels that a U.N. scientific panel blames for stoking heatwaves, floods, droughts and rising seas.

(Editing by Sue Thomas)

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Climate Goal Needs "More Than Technology": Shell

Gerard Wynn, PlanetArk 23 Nov 09;

LONDON - Action to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius is beyond simply inventing new, low-carbon technologies and depends on wider changes to behavior and the way communities are built, said a Royal Dutch Shell executive.

Oil major Shell was among nine firms which signed on Friday a letter addressed to head of the European Union's executive Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, calling for a "strong deal" on climate at a global U.N. meeting next month in Copenhagen.

Climate scientists say that the world must limit average global warming to 2 degrees Celsius to avoid dangerous climate change. "I think that (it) is extremely demanding," said Graeme Sweeney, Shell's executive vice-president of future fuels and CO2, of that target.

"It is more than the (energy) supply-side, more than the technology, it will require a clear approach to the demand-side including behavior," he told Reuters on Friday.

"What we understand is that the 2 degrees rise is associated with a 450 parts per million of CO2 equivalent ... and that should guide the global agreements as they are set in place," he said referring to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which would result in about 2 degrees warming.

"It will require behavioral change to be achieved, change as individuals and collectively. That doesn't mean we don't have to do all the supply-side things as well."

Behavior change could include individuals retro-fitting their own homes with efficiency upgrades and installation of low-carbon appliances, and the re-design of communities to allow more thrifty use of energy -- for example to encourage cycling, public transport or provide local generation of energy from waste.

The world will have to limit greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation as well as from burning fossil fuels, he added.

Shell is working on producing a new generation of low-carbon transport fuels from non-food crops such as wood waste. One criticism of biofuels now, for example when produced from corn, is that they compete with food crops and so stoke food prices and perhaps spur deforestation.

Sweeney said he disagreed with recent research which suggested that second generation biofuels would also compete with cropland and so spur deforestation.

Shell is also funding technologies which might be able to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, in particular an approach which involves quarrying minerals that when exposed to the air can absorb CO2 and then be used as a building material.

"We're working on mineralization, that's the conversion of the captured CO2 into what would then effectively become building materials. We think that there's a considerable scope in that and we continue to work on it."

(Editing by Keiron Henderson)

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Curbing global emissions: The 'what' is obvious, the 'how' isn't

Warren Fernandez , For the Straits Times 24 Nov 09;

BIG screen television sets are likely to see some action in the battle to boost energy efficiency. California has just passed laws that will require new TV sets to use one-third less energy by 2011, and half as much by 2013.

This is a sequel of sorts to the stringent standards for refrigerators imposed by the state in the 1970s. Manufacturers moaned then that the efficiency gains demanded would put the price of fridges beyond the reach of the average American household. The typical fridge today, however, is 10 per cent larger, costs half as much and uses two-thirds less energy than those in the 1970s.

This story of how governments can prod businesses towards more sustainable products was recounted by United States Commerce Secretary Gary Locke at a business meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit earlier this month. This was one of a series of meetings here over the past fortnight when the 3Ses confronting the energy sector - supply, security and sustainability - kept resurfacing, especially during the Singapore International Energy Week, which wrapped up last Friday.

Human wit and ingenuity would ensure a transformation in the energy sector, Mr Locke argued, provided it was backed with the necessary political will. Energy industry guru Daniel Yergin, delivering the Singapore Energy Lecture on Monday last week, shared this sentiment.

'This intense push for innovation is driven by two powerful forces - the quest for clean energy and the need to provide energy for economic growth,' said Dr Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Indeed, sheer need would demand it. By 2050, world energy demand is expected to double. Supplies of easy-to-access energy would struggle to keep up with this demand.

The environmental implications of this surging demand were framed starkly last week with the launch of the International Energy Agency's 2009 World Energy Outlook. The report calls for urgent action to limit greenhouse gas emissions to levels spelt out in the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) 450 scenario, which aims to stabilise the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million. This would limit to 50 per cent the likelihood of global temperatures rising beyond 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels, which most scientists accept as the threshold beyond which it is unsafe to venture.

Such deep emission cuts would call for big gains in energy efficiency and technological innovation. According to the ADB, investments of US$10.5 trillion (S$14.5 trillion) will be required by 2030, with energy efficiency contributing over half of the carbon dioxide (CO2) abatement. Further reductions could come from the use of renewable energy sources and carbon capture and storage.

Energy efficiency, the ADB has declared, is the 'win-win' option in tackling climate change. The Singapore Government has also put energy efficiency at the heart of its blueprint to promote sustainable development.

A McKinsey report, which Shell supported, found that the US could cut its energy usage by a quarter by 2020 through efficiency gains. It dubbed energy efficiency the 'low hanging' fruit of carbon abatement measures. US Energy Secretary Steven Chu has taken this further, saying this was not just 'low hanging' fruit, but ones that had already fallen to the ground.

So the critical question that arises is how to ensure that these efficiency gains are tapped in a timely fashion. A panel discussion on the issue that I chaired last Thursday noted that doing so was often hampered by a lack of capital, low risk appetites and long pay-off times for such gains to be enjoyed.

Touching on this theme at the Shell-ESI Energy Dialogue, organised jointly with the Energy Studies Institute, Shell executive vice-president for global business to business Tan Chong Meng cited several technologies, products and services developed by the company to help customers 'get the most out of every drop' and boost the efficiency of their energy use. These included Shell Thiocrete, a concrete substitute which can be mixed at lower temperatures, thereby cutting emissions, and without using up scarce water supplies.

But as several participants noted, the benefits of such new technologies and processes were not immediate - they often accrue to someone or somewhere else or at some time down the road. To help unlock the value from energy efficiencies and green products and technologies, some form of carbon pricing would have to be introduced, suggested the ESI's Principal Fellow, Dr Michael Quah.

How best to do so was a subject of much debate at various sessions over the week. Some speakers, such as ExxonMobil's chairman and chief executive officer Rex Tillerson, called for a carbon tax, saying this would give companies greater certainty over carbon pricing.

Others took a different view. Economist Amanda McCluskey from Colonial First State Global Asset Management, as well as Shell's senior climate change adviser David Hone, argued that a cap-and- trade system offered the best way to price carbon at the lowest cost to societies. It gave companies a strong incentive to adopt the cheapest CO2 abatement solutions and to innovate.

Singaporean participants at these sessions might have felt a sense of deja vu. After all, parallels of both measures have been tried in this country to curb growth in the vehicle population. A system of road taxes and registration surcharges failed to check the surge in car numbers in the 1980s, prompting the introduction of a vehicle quota system, with a limited number of certificates of entitlement for car ownership sold on the market.

This, in effect, was an early version of a cap-and-trade system. It put a lid on rising vehicle numbers in the 1990s and helped keep the roads relatively free flowing. Similarly, a network of state and national cap-and-trade systems on C02 will help the world put limits on emissions and check the rise in global temperatures.

While a broad consensus appears to be emerging on what needs to be done in Copenhagen and beyond, the how remains a challenge. Governments, businesses, consumers and communities will have to play their parts if the 'low hanging' fruit that everyone seems to be eyeing are not left to wither on the branches, or fall by the wayside.

The writer, the former deputy editor of The Straits Times, is regional director (Asia Pacific) of Shell's global communications network and a member of the board of the Energy Studies Institute.

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Renewable Energy Costs Drop In 2009

PlanetArk 24 Nov 09;

LONDON - Solar energy costs will drop by half in 2009 while other low-carbon technology costs will see their pre-subsidy costs drop by 10-20 percent, renewable energy analysts said on Monday.

Prices for renewable energy equipment, including wind turbines and solar panels, fell this year, but they were offset by higher financing costs in the wake of the global economic slowdown, New Energy Finance said in a quarterly research note.

"As capital markets loosen up and equipment prices continue their decline, we will see the levelized costs decline, finishing the year 10 percent below the end of last year across the board and far more than that in solar," said Michael Liebreich, London-based New Energy Finance's chairman and CEO.

Levelized costs for solar energy, or the lifetime cost per kilowatt hour before government subsidies, will drop this year, with thin-film solar power generation rates falling to as low as $3 per watt, the report said.

Chinese and European solar power companies were upbeat about next year, saying last week that demand for clean energy systems was rebounding after a dismal 2009.

Wind turbines have dropped to their lowest level in several years, shedding 18-20 percent of their cost in 2009, New Energy Finance said, adding that equipment prices could be offset by higher construction costs as developers build in deeper waters.

Geothermal energy rates also eased as low oil prices caused many drilling rigs to sit idle, meaning more equipment was available.

Geothermal uses underground hot water and steam to spin turbines and generate electricity.

New Energy Finance said drilling costs, having dropped by nearly 50 percent earlier this year, recovered somewhat alongside oil prices in the third quarter.

The U.S., Europe, China and South Korea lead global renewable energy spending plans after committing about $500 billion to push 'green' technologies under wider plans to stimulate their own economies.

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Sea level rise could cost port cities $28 trillion

CNN 23 Nov 09;

London, England (CNN) -- A possible rise in sea levels by 0.5 meters by 2050 could put at risk more than $28 trillion worth of assets in the world's largest coastal cities, according to a report compiled for the insurance industry.

The value of infrastructure exposed in so-called "port mega-cities," urban conurbations with more than 10 million people, is just $3 trillion at present.

The rise in potential losses would be a result of expected greater urbanization and increased exposure of this greater population to catastrophic surge events occurring once every 100 years caused by rising sea levels and higher temperatures.

The report, released on Monday by WWF and financial services Allianz, concludes that the world's diverse regions and ecosystems are close to temperature thresholds -- or "tipping points."
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Any one of these surge events could unleash devastating environmental, social and economic changes amid a higher urban population.

According to the report, carried out by the UK-based Tyndall Centre, the impacts of passing "Tipping Points" on the livelihoods of people and economic assets have been underestimated.

Global temperatures have already risen by at least 0.7 degrees Celsius and the report says a further rise by 2-3 degrees in the second half of the century is likely unless deep cuts in emissions are put in place before 2015.

The consequent melting of the Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Shield could lead to one such tipping point scenario, possibly a sea level rise of up to 0.5 meters by 2050.

The report focuses on regions and phenomena where such events might be expected to cause significant environmental impacts within the first half of the century.

For example a hurricane in New York, which could cost $1 trillion now, would mean a $5 trillion insurance bill by the middle of the century, the report adds.

"If we don't take immediate action against climate change, we are in grave danger of disruptive and devastating changes," said Kim Carstensen, the Head of WWF Global Climate Initiative.

"Reaching a tipping point means losing something forever. This must be a strong argument for world leaders to agree a strong and binding climate deal in Copenhagen in December."

Unchecked Climate change will put world at ‘tipping point’, WWF and Allianz report says
WWF 23 Nov 09;

Berlin, 23rd November 2009 – The world’s diverse regions and ecosystems are close to reaching temperature thresholds – or “tipping points” – that can unleash devastating environmental, social and economic changes, according to a new report by WWF and Allianz.

Often global warming is seen as a process similar to a steady flow of water in our bathrooms and kitchens, where temperature goes up gradually, controlled by a turn of the tap.

But the report ‘Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector’ documents that changes related to global warming are likely to be much more abrupt and unpredictable – and they could create huge social and environmental problems and cost the world hundreds of billions of dollars.

Without immediate climate action, sea level rise on the East Coast of the USA, the shift to an arid climate in California, disturbances of the Indian Summer Monsoon in India and Nepal or the dieback of the Amazon rainforest due to increasing drought, are likely to affect hundreds millions of people and cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

The study explores impacts of these “tipping points,” including their economic consequences and implications for the insurance sector. It also shows how close the world is to reaching “tipping points” in many regions of the world, or how close we are to tipping the scales toward disaster.

“If we don’t take immediate action against climate change, we are in grave danger of disruptive and devastating changes,” said Kim Carstensen, the Head of WWF Global Climate Initiative. “Reaching a tipping point means losing something forever. This must be a strong argument for world leaders to agree a strong and binding climate deal in Copenhagen in December.

According to the report, carried out by the Tyndall Centre, the impacts of passing “Tipping Points” on the livelihood of people and economic assets have been underestimated so far. The report focuses on regions and phenomena where such events might be expected to cause significant impacts within the first half of the century.

“As an insurer and investor, we must prepare our clients for these scenarios as long as we still have leeway for action,” says Clemens von Weichs, CEO of Allianz Reinsurance. “Setting premiums risk-appropriately and sustainably is of vital interest to everyone involved, because this is the only way to ensure that coverage solutions will continue to exist.”

Allianz intends to address climate change by entering into dialogue with its clients at an early date. This will allow it to point out countermeasures in a timely way, and work together to develop specific coverage concepts, whether for existing assets or for future climate-compatible projects like alternative energy and water supply concepts, dyke construction, or protection against failed harvests.

Global temperatures have already risen by at least 0.7 degrees Celsius. Global warming above 2-3 degrees in the second half of the century is likely unless strong extremely radical and determined efforts towards deep cuts in emissions are put in place before 2015.

The melting of the Greenland (GIS) and the West Antarctic Ice Shield (WAIS) could lead to a Tipping Point scenario, possibly a sea level rise of up to 0.5 meters by 2050. This is estimated to increase the value of assets at threat in all 136 global port mega-cities by around 25.000 billion USD.

On the North-eastern coast of the USA and due to a localized anomaly, the sea level could rise up to 0.65 meters, increasing the asset exposure from 1.350 to about 7.400 billion USD

The South Western Part of the USA, namely California, is likely to be affected by droughts and levels of aridity similar to the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. The annual damages caused by wildfires could be tenfold compared to today’s costs and could reach up to 2.5 billion USD per year by 2050 increasing to up to 14 billion by 2085.

70 percent of working population may be put at risk by droughts in India. The future costs of droughts are expected to rise to approx. 40 billion USD per decade until the middle of the century.

In a tipping point scenario, dieback of the Amazon Rainforest could reach 70% by the end of the century as a consequence of a significant increase in the frequency of droughts in the Amazon basin. The impacts include loss of biodiversity and massive carbon release. Costs could reach up to 9.000 billion USD for a surface of around 4 million square kilometers.

“The Tipping Points report shows how quickly we are approaching dangerous and irreversible levels of global warming,” Carstensen said. “Economic consequences of passing the climate tipping points are absolutely overwhelming.”

“There is still a chance to avoid the worst and this report shows how urgent it is to act immediately. A strong climate agreement in Copenhagen in December is the best, if not the only chance to prevent the worst impacts of devastating climate change.”

Today’s insurance industry has learned lessons from its experiences after major losses caused by hurricanes like Andrew (1992), Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005). Better models will help people understand the frequency and strength of natural disasters. “But good models will not be enough to protect the climate,” explains Michael Bruch, of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, the Allianz Group’s industrial insurer. “The human component is playing an ever-increasing role in reducing the risk from natural disasters, in terms of both risk management and combating the human causes of climate change.”

Final Tipping Points report 1.28 MB pdf
Tipping Points executive summary 99 KB pdf

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Over 100 icebergs drifting to New Zealand: official

Yahoo News 23 Nov 09;

SYDNEY (AFP) – More than 100, and possibly hundreds, of Antarctic icebergs are floating towards New Zealand in a rare event which has prompted a shipping warning, officials said on Monday.

An Australian Antarctic Division glaciologist said the ice chunks, spotted by satellite photography, had passed the Auckland Islands and were heading towards the main South Island, about 450 kilometres (280 miles) northeast.

Scientist Neal Young said more than 100 icebergs -- some measuring more than 200 metres (650 feet) across -- were seen in just one cluster, indicating there could be hundreds more.

He said they were the remains of a massive ice floe which split from the Antarctic as sea and air temperatures rise due to global warming.

"All of these have come from a larger one that was probably 30 square kilometres (11.6 square miles) in size when it left Antarctica," Young told AFP.

"It's done a long circuit around Antarctica and now the bigger parts of it are breaking up and producing smaller ones."

He said large numbers of icebergs had not floated this close to New Zealand since 2006, when a number came within 25 kilometres of the coastline -- the first such sighting since 1931.

"They're following the same tracks now up towards New Zealand. Whether they make it up to the South Island or not is difficult to tell," Young said.

New Zealand has already issued coastal navigation warnings for the area in the Southern Ocean where the icebergs have been seen.

"It's really just a general warning for shipping in that area to be on the alert for icebergs," said Maritime New Zealand spokesman Ross Henderson.

The icebergs are smaller remnants of the giant chunks seen off Australia's Macquarie Island this month, including one estimated at two kilometres (1.2 miles) and another twice the size of Beijing's "Bird's Nest" Olympic Stadium.

Young earlier told AFP he expected to see more icebergs in the area if the Earth's temperature continues to increase.

"If the current trends in global warming were to continue I would anticipate seeing more icebergs and the large ice shelves breaking up," he said.

When icebergs last neared New Zealand in 2006, a sheep was helicoptered out to be shorn on one of the floes in a publicity stunt by the country's wool industry.

'Icebergs heading to New Zealand'
BBC News 25 Nov 09;

A warning has been issued to ships in the southern Pacific Ocean after more than 100 iceberg were spotted drifting towards New Zealand.

The icebergs, some of which are 200m (650ft) in size, are believed to have broken from an Antarctic ice floe.

Many scientists have said they believe these segments will break up long before reaching the New Zealand coastline.

The last time such a large flotilla was spotted so nearby was in 2006.

Maritime New Zealand has issued the alert to vessels in the area although it is not a major shipping lane.

Spokesman Ross Henderson said: "It is really just a general warning for shipping in that area to be on the alert for icebergs."

Earlier spot

Glaciologist Neal Young, from the Australian Antarctic Division, said the flotilla was heading towards New Zealand's main South Island.

Mr Young said satellite photography spotted just one cluster of icebergs but that was not to say more were around.

He said the closest iceberg - about 30m high (98ft), was 160 miles (257.5km) south east of New Zealand's Stewart Island.

Earlier this month the Australian government organisation reported larger icebergs were seen floating off Tasmania's Macquarie Island territory. It is believed this particular flotilla stems from those giant chunks - one which was estimated to be double the size of Beijing's "Bird's Nest" Olympic Stadium.

A number of scientists say they believe the icebergs originally broke away from the Ross Sea Ice Shelf in 2000 and have been drifting and slowly breaking apart since then, reports say.

In 2006, a number of icebergs from the same broken shelf came within 16 miles (25km) of the coastline. Before that, the last sighting was in 1931.

Mike Williams, an oceanographer from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said since the icebergs were moving at a speed of just 16 miles (25km) a day, he did not expect many of them to reach New Zealand's coastline.

Glaciologist Wendy Lawson, from the UK's Canterbury University, downplayed the sightings.

She told the AP news agency: "Icebergs this far north [near New Zealand] are not that unusual.

"If an iceberg starts off large, it will last longer in the sea. Its movement and where it ends up is determined by the weather, wind, ocean currents and the temperature," she said.

Scientists are now investigating the conditions which have allowed the icebergs to travel in such a large form for so long.

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African conflicts spurred by warming

Peter Aldhous, New Scientist 23 Nov 09;

Africa is poised to experience a surge in civil wars, causing nearly 400,000 additional battle deaths by 2030 – all as a direct result of rising temperatures. This bold prediction is one of the most alarming results yet to emerge from attempts to discover how climate change will affect patterns of human conflict. It is already proving controversial.

Previous attempts to model the effects of climate on patterns of conflict in Africa have mostly concentrated on rainfall. But now researchers led by Marshall Burke at the University of California, Berkeley, and David Lobell of Stanford University have studied both rainfall and temperature. They found that warming was much more strongly associated with civil strife than precipitation (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0907998106).

Burke and Lobell analysed data on the incidence of African civil wars alongside local temperature and rainfall measurements from 1981 to 2002. They found a strong relationship between spikes in temperature and the likelihood of civil war. Because climate models give fairly consistent predictions for warming across Africa, the researchers were able to forecast a 54 per cent rise in the incidence of civil conflict by 2030, resulting in an extra 393,000 combat deaths. The prediction assumes that global carbon dioxide emissions are not curbed in the short term and that future wars are as deadly as recent ones.

Other researchers agree that temperature changes may affect conflict, but some are sceptical that the effect will be as large as Burke and Lobell claim. "I'm just not convinced," says Peter Brecke of the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, who has previously found a global link between increased conflict and the Little Ice Age, which lasted from around 1400 to the late 1800s.

One issue is that the two-decade period studied by Burke and Lobell may have been unusually conflict-prone, amplifying the apparent effect of temperature. Cullen Hendrix, a political scientist at the University of North Texas in Denton, points out that some countries were destabilised when the superpowers withdrew aid to African dictators as the Cold War ended. "This is probably going to wind up being the first salvo in a pretty significant debate," he says.

"We're very willing to be proven wrong," says Lobell. But the link with temperature remained even after the researchers controlled for measures of wealth and democracy. "The result seems remarkably robust," adds Burke.

If the link bears further scrutiny, policy-makers will need to know how warming triggers conflict. Burke and Lobell say the most likely explanation is that warmer temperatures reduce crop yields or other aspects of economic productivity, increasing social tension. But some studies have suggested that it's inherent in people to become more violent when the mercury rises.

Rich nations can provide economic aid or share plant-breeding technologies that allow crops to withstand extremes of climate, says Hendrix, "but we can't change human nature".

Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0907998106)

Can Climate Change Cause Conflict? Recent History Suggests So
A survey delving into the past 30 years in sub-Saharan Africa reveals that temperature changes match up with a significant increase in the likelihood of civil war
David Biello, Scientific American 23 Nov 09;

Some experts call the genocide in Darfur the world's first conflict caused by climate change. After all, the crisis was sparked, at least in part, by a decline in rainfall over the past 30 years just as the region's population doubled, pitting wandering pastoralists against settled farmers for newly scarce resources, such as arable land.

"Is Darfur the first climate change war?" asked economist and Scientific American columnist Jeffrey Sachs at an event at Columbia University in 2007. "Don't doubt for a moment that places like Darfur are ecological disasters first and political disasters second."

But new research would suggest the answer to Sachs's question is no, at least regarding the novelty of Darfur. Agricultural economist Marshall Burke of the University of California, Berkeley and his colleagues have analyzed the history of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa between 1980 and 2002 in a new paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"We find that civil wars were much more likely to happen in warmer-than-average years, with one degree Celsius warmer temperatures in a given year associated with a 50 percent higher likelihood of conflict in that year," Burke says. The implication: because average temperatures may warm by at least one degree C by 2030, "climate change could increase the incidences of African civil war by 55 percent by 2030, and this could result in about 390,000 additional battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars."

In fact, temperature change offered a better prediction of impending conflict in the 40 countries surveyed than even changes in rainfall, despite the fact that agriculture in this region is largely dependent on such precipitation. Burke and his fellow authors argue that this could be because many staple crops in the region are vulnerable to reduced yields with temperature changes—10 to 30 percent drops per degree C of warming.

"If temperature rises, crop yields decline and rural incomes fall, and the disadvantaged rural population becomes more likely to take up arms," Burke says. "Fighting for something to eat beats starving in their fields."

Whereas 23 years in 40 countries provides a relatively large data set, it does not exclude other possible explanations, such as violent crime increasing with temperature rise, a drop in farm labor productivity or population growth. "Fast population growth could create resource shortage problems, as well," notes geographer David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong, who previously analyzed world history back to A.D. 1400 to find linkages between war and temperature change. Those results were also published in 2007 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. But "the driver for this linkage," Zhang says," is resource shortage, mainly agricultural production, which is caused by climate change."

Burke and his colleagues specifically excluded records from prior to 1980, because of the conflict rampant in the wake of Africa's emerging colonial independence after World War II. "A lag of a couple of decades would leave sufficient time for post-independence turmoil to wear out," Burke argues. "We took the approach that the best analogue to the next few decades were the last few decades."

Proving the link—and providing a specific mechanism for the increase in conflict, whether agricultural productivity or otherwise—remains the next challenge. "I believe that the historical experience of human society of climate change would provide us [with] the evidence of how climate cooling and warming during the last thousand years created human crisis, and also the lessons for human adaptive choices for climate change," Zhang notes.

"We feel that we have very clearly shown the strong link between temperature increases and conflict risk," Burke adds. But "what interventions will make climate-induced conflict less likely?"

The U.S. military, for its part, is concerned about the issue, analyzing the possibility for climate change to destabilize countries in recent reports, such as an essay from members of the CNA Military Advisory Board in November, "Climate and Energy the Dominant Challenges of the 21st Century."

But, given the recent historical record in places like Darfur, the question about intervention may remain unanswered. "We need 18 helicopters but no one has provided it and yet we are so concerned about Darfur," said former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan at an event at Columbia University in September, noting the stretched resources of the peacekeeping forces in that region. "No one can tell me we don't have 18 helicopters. We have thousands."

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Climate change: What price will future generations pay?

Are children's futures going up in smoke?
Lord David Puttnam, BBC Green Room 23 Nov 09;

Climate change poses a huge barrier to a fulfilling future, argues Lord Puttnam, an ambassador for Unicef UK. In this week's Green Room, he asks what price children will have to pay for three or four carbon-happy generations?

When world leaders sit round the table in Copenhagen next month to try and tackle what has become possibly the greatest moral crisis of my generation, a unique responsibility rests on their shoulders as they try to decide what kind of world future generations will inherit.

What price will children have to pay for the three or four carbon-happy generations that have lived before them?

The prognosis is not good. In the past month alone, the world has been shaken by a series of disasters, such as typhoons and floods in the Philippines.

With weather-related disasters predicted to only increase in severity and frequency, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stresses the grave consequences others will face if we continue down the high emissions pathway we appear to have chosen - increased child poverty, inequity and death.

Carrying capacity

There is no doubt that my generation has uniquely contributed to this increasing chaos, and the burden my grandchildren and those of others will have to carry because of it.

What is less clear, however, is what price today's decision makers will place on the well-being of future generations when carving out their response to climate change.

A new paper released by Unicef UK - Climate Change, Child's Rights and Intergenerational Justice - makes it clear that their responsibility is huge, particularly when it comes to protecting the rights and future well-being of children.

Climate change is not just an environmental problem, it is a human rights issue. In fact it's the biggest child rights problem of our time.

With the potential rise of up to 160,000 child deaths a year in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia directly resulting from climate change, it is children, the most vulnerable children, who will be caught at the centre of the storm.

They will unquestionably carry the greatest burden - both as children and as future adults - and yet they are the least culpable for its damage.

Unicef UK and the Children in a Changing Climate coalition have been working tirelessly to put intergenerational justice and child rights on to the climate change agenda.

Fair play

World leaders are increasingly beginning to reference this in their speeches; President Obama, in his first address to the UN, acknowledged that we "risk consigning future generations to an irreversible catastrophe" if we fail to respond today.

But despite this, the idea of ensuring justice between those generations responsible for the effects of climate change and those who will have to pay the heaviest price for it, is still not being adequately reflected in climate change policy, with world leaders instead choosing to focus only on solutions that can accommodate their short-term national interests.

But as the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) recently celebrated its 20th anniversary, Unicef UK is urgently pushing for the rights of the child along with those of future generations to be acknowledged in the UN climate change negotiations. Not as a cursory afterthought, but as being central to all negotiations and policy making decisions.

Failure to do so will leave an indelible mark on whether the rights of the child, which have been enshrined in the UN CRC for two decades and have been ratified by 193 countries, will ever be realised.

All signatories to the CRC have a legal and moral duty to remove any barriers which could prevent children from fulfilling the rights they were born with, no matter where in the world they live.

Climate change poses a huge barrier to a fulfilling future. Before it becomes an insurmountable one, global leaders must seize the opportunity Copenhagen offers, and acknowledge their obligation to children by putting them at the heart of the global response.

So what exactly does this mean? It means that the implications of climate change for children must be at the top of the agenda at Copenhagen, and that the voices and opinions of children and young people are heard, respected and represented - a key right as outlined in the CRC.

The youth delegates being granted official recognition in Copenhagen are a welcome and crucial step forward in ensuring this happens, but more needs to be done to embed children into the core of the outcome of negotiations.

At a global and national level, climate change responses must focus on long-term sustainable solutions to ensure the well-being and needs of future generations are met. This means minimising the impact on future generations caused by the current level of CO2 emissions from the industrialised world.

So we must stop borrowing from the future and act now, with world leaders putting the rights and needs of children at the core of the climate change policy framework.

Our children and those as yet unborn deserve to live in a world that is healthier, more equitable and which offers a sustainable future - exactly the type of world we ourselves would want to live in. Copenhagen offers the opportunity to ensure that happens; we must grab it, before it is too late.

Lord David Puttnam is an ambassador for Unicef UK

The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website

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Greenhouse emissions reach 'record' level: UN

Yahoo News 23 Nov 09;

GENEVA (AFP) – Greenhouse gas emissions have kept increasing, reaching a record level since the pre-industrial era, the UN climate agency warned Monday, just weeks before a crucial climate change summit.

"Levels of most greenhouse gases continue to increase," said the World Meteorological Organisation in a statement.

"In 2008, global concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, which are the main long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, have reached the highest levels recorded since pre-industrial times," it said.

WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud noted that data confirmed the "tendancy of exponential increase."

"It's not really good news: concentration of greenhouse gases continue to increase, actually even a bit faster," he said.

"This is reinforcing the fact that we are actually closer to the pessimistic scenario" forecasted by scientists of the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he said.

"Action must be taken as soon as possible," he stressed, ahead of a UN summit in Copenhagen next month aimed at securing a treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which aims at cutting carbon emissions.

The WMO said since 1750, atmospheric carbon dioxide -- the key driver of global warming -- has increased by 38 percent, contributing to 63.5 percent of the growth in atmospheric greenhouse effect.

In 2008, carbon dioxide levels reached 385.2 parts per million, up 2.0 ppm from a year earlier.

Methane levels stayed stable from 1999 to 2006, but showed a "significant increase" in 2007 and 2008.

Methane is over 20 times more efficient than carbon dioxide in trapping solar heat, and some 60 percent of methane arise from human influence on nature, such as rice and cattle farming, fossil fuel usage and landfills.

Meanwhile, the WMO noted that the levels of chlorofluorocarbons are decreasing as the ozone-depleting compounds are being phased out through an international treaty.

However, concentrations of substitute gases are "increasing rapidly," contributing to 8.9 percent of greenhouse effect between 2003 and 2008.

Arctic Ice Volume Lowest Ever As Globe Warms: U.N.
Robert Evans, PlanetArk 23 Nov 09;

GENEVA - Ice volume around the Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the world, the U.N. weather agency WMO said on Tuesday.

Although the world's average temperature in 2008 was, at 14.3 degrees Celsius (57.7 degrees Fahrenheit), by a fraction of a degree the coolest so far this century, the direction toward a warmer climate remained steady, it reported.

"What is happening in the Arctic is one of the key indicators of global warming," Michel Jarraud, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said. "The overall trend is still upwards."

A report presented by Jarraud at a news conference showed Arctic ice cover dropping to its second lowest extent during this year's melt season since satellite measuring began in 1979.

However, the Geneva-based agency said, "because ice was thinner in 2008, overall ice volume was less than in any other year." It added: "The season strongly reinforced the 30-year downward trend in the extent of Arctic Sea ice."

The dramatic collapse of a quarter of ancient ice shelves on Canada's Ellesmere Island in the north of the Arctic Ocean added to earlier meltdowns, reducing cover in the region from 9,000 square km (3,500 sq miles) a century ago to just 1,000 sq kms.

The WMO said the slight slowdown in warming this year, an increase of 0.31C over the 14C of the base period 1961-90, against an average 0.43C for 2001-2007, was due to a moderate-to-strong La Nina in the Pacific in late 2007.

"This decade is almost 0.2 degrees (Celsius) warmer compared to the previous decade. We have to look at it in that way, comparing decades not years," Peter Stott, a climate scientist at Britain's Hadley Center, which provided data for the WMO report, told Reuters in London.

LA NINA, EL NINO

La Nina is a periodic weather pattern that develops when Pacific sea water cools. It alternates irregularly with the related El Nino -- when the Pacific warms up -- and both affect the climate all round the world.

The WMO report was based on statistics and analyses compiled by weather services among its 188 member countries and specialist research institutions, including government-backed bodies in the United States and Britain.

"Climate extremes, including devastating floods, severe and persistent droughts, snow storms, heat waves and cold waves were recorded in many parts of the world," the agency said. In many of these, hundreds or even thousands of people died.

Among the disasters was Cyclone Nargis, which killed some 78,000 in Myanmar's southern delta region in early May. In the western Atlantic and Caribbean there were 16 major tropical storms, eight of which developed into hurricanes.

In an average year, there are 11 storms of which six become hurricanes and two become major hurricanes. In 2008, five major hurricanes developed, and for the first time on record six tropical storms in a row made landfall in the United States.

The WMO says the 10 hottest years since global records were first kept in 1850 have all been since 1997, with the warmest at 14.79 C in 2005. Countries have been struggling for years to reach agreement on how to halt the trend.

This month a two-week meeting of leaders in Poznan, Poland, called to prepare a treaty for late 2009 seemed to falter amid rows between rich and poor nations and what some climate campaigners say was lack of will to get things done.

-- Additional reporting by Gerard Wynn and Michael Szabo in London

(Editing by Stephanie Nebehay and Michael Roddy)

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