Local IPCC author: hopes document will be a 'wake-up call'

IPCC report to guide the hands of politicians
Local author of strongly worded document hopes that it will serve as a 'wake-up call'
Arti Mulchand, Straits Times 1 Dec 07;

WHILE its title may not sound like a sure-fire best-seller, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report may be one of the most important documents ever written.

It will guide the hands of politicians as they meet in Bali from Monday to discuss the raging issue.

Self-described 'planetary physician' Richard Somerville was a coordinating lead author and it is his hope that the most strongly worded diagnosis of the earth's fate to date weighs heavily on their minds.

'Public opinion has changed. A lot of people in various parts of the world have been convinced that climate change is real and seriously deserves action,' he told The Straits Times.

What remains, he adds, is to see how policymakers respond.

Closely watched in the upcoming talks, perhaps, will be where Prof Somerville hails from - the United States - where state-level rumbles have indicated a strong grassroots awareness of the issues.

Many will also have an eye on Australia, where the recent departure of Mr John Howard and his replacement as prime minister by the Labor Party's Kevin Rudd represents an about-turn in the nation's stance on Kyoto.

What backs up the change of heart most strongly is the 'unequivocal' science fed into the IPCC synthesis report, which brings together three reports released over the course of this year, with the most dire warning about the fate of the planet to date.

The first, which Prof Somerville was directly involved in, is the result of more than four meetings and countless e-mail messages exchanged by 152 lead authors over four years.

Together with two other reports on adaptation and mitigation, it props up the synthesis report which warns that warming caused by man could lead to 'abrupt and irreversible' climate change impacts.

But the fight behind closed doors in Bali could be far from the 'collegial, harmonious, enjoyable...and really heartwarming process' he experienced putting out that first report, which was devoid of ideology and politicking, he said.

Indeed, of the three reports that feed into the synthesis report, the first, relating to the science behind climate change, has been regarded as less controversial than the two following reports on what should be done about it.

'The science was not diluted, wasn't talked down, wasn't spun, but was respected...The science and the report are firmer than ever before,' he said.

Indeed, he is optimistic about a positive outcome in Bali, as long as the influence that scientists seem to uniquely have on negotiations this time around sticks.

So what does he think has made the penny drop, if it has?

The tide started to turn when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in the US, after the heatwave that struck Europe less than two years earlier, he said. It makes the realisation that climate change is 'real and deserves action' ever more urgent.

'I'm not sure if scientists have ever had much of an influence on the negotiations...and I hope that will change this time because time is running out. You cannot just temporise forever,' he said.

In his capacity as a scientist, he hopes that the IPCC report will act as the 'wake-up call' that it is, and not that it can be.

'I really hope for more action and less rhetoric now that the science itself is so compelling and so solid. I think the scientists have succeeded and played their necessary role...Corporations and governments are used to making decisions under uncertainty and the IPCC has quantified that uncertainty,' he said.

But even if the science is indisputable, finding common ground will be a challenge, he admits. 'The science is solid. I don't know if the political will is equally so. We are asking the world to make difficult decisions. We are asking politicians to do things that cause some hardship now but which will have great benefits for our children and grandchildren,' he said.

He added: 'In some sense the world has gradually woken up to it...But it's not anyone's No. 1 priority. If you ask the man on the street, he is more concerned with economic security, education and health care and those kinds of immediate concerns. It takes time.'