They may lead to future deal on emissions reductions that could affect developing states
By Arti Mulchand Straits Times 1 Dec 07;
If Indonesia's proposal that developing countries be paid to protect their forests is accepted, it could help mitigate the haze that has the region in a chokehold during the land-clearing season.
WITH no more than 0.2 per cent of the world's greenhouse gases coming from this tiny island state, Singapore's emissions seem to hardly make a dent in the atmosphere.
As Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has put it: 'Even if Singapore shuts down... no lights, no fans, no air-cons, no cars, buses, MRT, nothing, the amount of carbon...not generated will be the same as three days of energy consumption in China.'
But as representatives of some 190 countries gather next week in Bali to decide the future of the Kyoto Protocol, the current pact to cut carbon dioxide emissions, Singapore, like many around the world, will be watching what surfaces from the talks.
If all goes well, analysts believe Bali could kickstart a two-year negotiation for Kyoto's successor - a more 'comprehensive' emissions reductions framework in which developed countries agree to serious emissions cuts.
At the same time, developed countries want developing nations, especially mega-emitters like India and China, to shoulder some responsibility and agree to develop in a 'cleaner' way.
Therein lies the rub.
The issue of binding targets has been the main reason countries, especially developing ones, have been reluctant to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, since they feel they would have to sacrifice economic growth to meet the targets.
While Singapore ratified the protocol last year, it was as a non-Annex 1 country, which means it is not obliged to cut emissions. Annex 1 nations have to cut emissions by at least 5 per cent below their 1990 levels by 2012.
The talks matter for Singapore because they may set the stage for any future international emissions reductions agreement, which could affect developing countries.
Another issue that will be watched closely is Indonesia's proposal that developing countries should be paid to protect their forests.
If the proposal is accepted, it could help mitigate the haze that has the region in a chokehold during the land-clearing season.
But it will also raise the tricky issue of just how the burden of paying to protect forests should be shared by developed countries.
The Republic will also be interested in the Clean Development Mechanism, which allows developed countries to undertake environmentally friendly projects in developing ones to make up for some of the greenhouse gases they produce.
This will be discussed at the conference.
Singapore is pushing to be a regional centre for such green initiatives and technology.
Singapore, for its part, has put energy efficiency high up on the agenda, and the government has pumped in some $350 million to grow the clean energy sector.
The Republic has its own National Climate Change Strategy and has created the Sustainable Energy Association of Singapore to promote carbon trading and other energy initiatives.
It also aims to cut energy intensity, or carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of GDP, by 25 per cent from 1990 levels by 2012.
Singapore, after all, does sit in the heart of Asia, which is set to bear the brunt of climate change, with changing weather patterns bringing drought and disease, and rising seas displacing millions of impoverished people.
Like many other developing countries, including China and India, Singapore has constantly underlined its stance that even as it is prepared to do its bit to mitigate climate change, it cannot afford to take 'drastic measures' at the expense of economic growth.
This is because Singapore is totally dependent on fossil fuels, with few feasible alternatives.
Then there are other issues: Singapore is a major manufacturing base for multinational firms, and a major air and sea hub where a large amount of fuel is uploaded to planes and ships.
Singapore argues that it should not be penalised for this production, as the goods are predominantly being consumed overseas.
That cannot all be 'put onto our account, because that's not fair and that does not make sense', Mr Lee has said.
This is a view that has its critics, including National University of Singapore academic and climate change commentator Natasha Hamilton-
Hart. Associate Professor Hamilton-Hart told a seminar on climate change earlier this week: 'The fact that Singapore is an exporting country has contributed to its wealth. And if you own the benefits, you should take the responsibility.'
Singapore leaders have pledged that the country will 'contribute' constructively to negotiations, but also made plain that they will have to safeguard 'national interests', like everyone else.
It is a view that is likely to be shared by many in the Group of 77, a bloc that represents about 130 developing countries.
The road to Bali
Straits Times 1 Dec 07;
Bali will set the scene for a post-Kyoto global climate change agreement, but much has happened in the last 12 months that could influence its outcome.
March: The IPCC's Working Group 1, which assessed the physical science backing climate change and its man-made drivers, releases its first report for policymakers. It was produced by more than 620 experts and governments, and was reviewed line by line by representatives of 113 governments.
April: The second segment of the IPCC report, on 'Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability' is released, and concludes that 'evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases'.
May: The final instalment of the IPCC report is released, pointing to possible strategies to curb climate change. One key issue in the debate concerns a proposal to limit concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to between 445 parts per million and 650 parts per million, with pressure from developing countries to raise the lower limit. Eventually, though, the original proposed figure is accepted into the summary created for policymakers.
Nov 16: The strongest scientific warning on climate change yet, the IPCC Synthesis Report, is issued. It declares that it is more than 90 per cent sure that humans are to blame for rising temperatures, and that 'abrupt or irreversible' impacts could result.
On the table in Bali
Business Times 1 Dec 07;
Delegates will ride bicycles to meetings but more substantial action is needed, writes Matthew Phan.
COME Monday, world leaders will meet in Bali until Dec 14 to discuss the future of the planet.
Delegates will ride to meetings on bicycles, as befits the theme of the talks: how to reduce world emissions of greenhouse gases, which scientists say are causing global warming.
At the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP13) in Bali, leaders aim to firm up what the Kyoto Protocol could look like after 2012, when current targets to cut emissions under the treaty will expire.
The protocol emerged as early as 1997, out of discussions that began as the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It came into force in 2004, and as at October this year, some 175 countries representing over 61 per cent of world emissions have ratified or accepted the treaty, making it the best known co-ordinated effort to curb emissions.
But Kyoto has glaring weaknesses, the most infamous of which is the failure of heavy emitters like the US and Australia to ratify the treaty, though the latter is set to change its stance.
A crucial part of Kyoto is a commitment from developed countries listed under Annex I to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions by an average of 5 per cent from 1990 levels, during the period 2008 to 2012.
The US accounts for more than a fifth of world emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes, or 5.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, and originally agreed to slash this by 7 per cent.
For its part, the US says that China should also reduce emissions - which thanks to industrial processes like cement production became the world's heaviest emitter last year, surpassing the US by 8 per cent. Still, China ranks far lower on a per capita basis.
China has not ratified Kyoto and has not set any reduction targets, though it plans to cut energy use per dollar of GDP by a fifth by 2010.
As Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UNFCCC, says: 'Powerful economies have to stop playing chicken with the future of the world.'
So far only the EU has demonstrated leadership - it has unilaterally committed to increase targets to 20 per cent of 1990 levels by 2020 - and has said that it will increase these to 30 per cent if other developed nations join in.
Other issues on the Bali agenda centre on how to make the treaty's mechanisms more effective.
Kyoto works via market mechanisms like the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. More relevant to Asia, though, is the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
Under the scheme, projects that reduce emissions in developing countries generate carbon credits. Project owners can sell them to EU members or other countries to help them meet targets.
The market for so-called Certified Emissions Reductions is roaring. It reached almost US$5.5 billion in 2006 and further growth is expected. But it is not enough, industry players say.
Further cuts
To cap the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at levels that imply an acceptable risk of climate change, emissions must come down much faster.
The CDM accounted for more than half a billion tonnes of potential reductions in 2006. But according to a report to the UK government by economist Nicholas Stern, to stabilise emissions at relatively safe levels (450 parts per million of carbon dioxide), they must be lowered by 70 per cent by 2050, which requires a drop of 7 per cent a year.
Given that world emissions were 42 billion tonnes in 2000 and are probably higher now, this implies cuts of at least three billion tonnes a year to start. Guy Turner, an analyst at Point Carbon, says: 'The scale of the challenge is far, far greater than our capability at this time.'
Part of the reason is lack of resources, which means that the UN cannot register projects fast enough. Also, registration and transaction costs mean that many small-scale projects are not worth doing.
To address these, the UN has developed a scheme called 'programmatic CDM', where hundreds of projects of the same type can be grouped together, speeding up the approval process. Another option in the works is 'sector-based', where plants from the same industry can register quickly if they meet performance benchmarks.
Under such schemes, projects like improving energy efficiency in thousands of houses across a region, or installing fuel efficient engines in large vehicle fleets, could be registered. This would accelerate and broaden efforts.
Another critical issue is deforestation. According to the UN, the cutting of trees accounts for up to a quarter of world emissions every year. But carbon reductions from forestry do not qualify under the CDM, though Mr de Boer points out that deforestation leads to over 5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide released a year, several times the volumes traded by the EU.
With so much at stake, observers say the Bali meetings must be decisive, although they warn that too much should not be expected. COP13 will just be a starting point, but must provide an ambitious roadmap to conclude by 2009.
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