Climate Deal Uncertainty Clouds Carbon Market: Survey

PlanetArk 28 May 09;

BARCELONA - Uncertainty that a global climate change deal can be reached at Copenhagen in December has dented confidence in the global greenhouse gas emissions market, a survey released on Wednesday showed.

The Greenhouse Gas Market Sentiment, published by the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) at a carbon conference in Barcelona, showed that over half of respondents expect a major climate pact to be postponed until further meetings in 2010. Out of 233 companies invited to take part in the survey, only 87 responded. Eighty percent of those were from Europe and the United States. The remainder were from Japan, Latin America, Africa and the rest of Asia.

It is hoped that negotiations in Copenhagen this December will result in a pact to replace the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012.

The aim is to get rich nations to sign up to deeper emissions cuts while offering greater assistance to developing countries to help them curb greenhouse gas pollution as well.

Over two fifths of survey respondents expect weak commitments to emerge from the talks and less than 30 percent expect ambitious targets to be set.

"The last 12 months have seen mixed progress on the climate change agenda due in large part to the global economic crisis," IETA said in its report.

World leaders have made tackling the financial crisis a priority, although many countries have included climate change measures in their economic stimulus packages.

Uncertainty over the outcome of Copenhagen has dinted confidence that carbon markets are delivering significant and cost-effective emissions reductions.

Sixty percent of respondents believe this is occurring in developing countries, while 59 percent think it is happening in developed countries. Over 80 percent of respondents saw efficacy in the markets last year.

Despite short-term uncertainty, only 9 percent of respondents expect the recent drops in carbon prices to undermine the long-term viability of emissions markets.

There is more confidence in the third phase of the EU's flagship trading scheme running from 2013-2020. Eighty five percent of respondents expect trade to increase by 50-75 percent in that period.

"(This) indicates confidence in the long-term viability of the trading scheme," IETA said.