World CO2 Up 39 Percent By 2030 Without New Policy: EIA

Timothy Gardner, PlanetArk 28 May 09;

NEW YORK - Global emissions of the main greenhouse gas carbon dioxide will jump more than 39 percent by 2030 without new policies and binding pacts to cut global warming pollution, the top U.S. energy forecast agency said on Wednesday.

Nearly 200 nations are set to meet late this year in Copenhagen to hash out a new agreement to control greenhouse gases as the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

U.S. President Barack Obama and leaders in both the House and Senate hope to regulate the gases with a cap and trade market in emissions.

Without new agreements to foster emerging technologies such as solar and wind power and burial of carbon dioxide underground, world emissions of the gas should hit 40.4 billion metric tons by 2030, up from 29 billion metric tons in 2006, said the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistics arm of the Department of Energy.

Many scientists say emissions of greenhouse gases must be cut 80 percent or more by 2050 to avoid heat waves and killer droughts from global warming.

Much of the growth in pollution levels is expected to come from developing countries such as China and India which burn a lot of coal.

"With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected for most of (the developing) economies, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emission is projected to occur among the developing ... nations," the EIA said in the report, its annual International Energy Outlook.

By 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from developing countries should hit 25.8 billion metric tons, while the pollution from rich countries should be 14.6 billion metric tons, the EIA said.

The United States is the world's second biggest greenhouse gas polluter behind China, but its global warming pollution on a per capita basis is nearly five times higher than China's. Developing countries say the rich countries are responsible for most of the greenhouse pollution since the Industrial Revolution.

(Editing by Jim Marshall)

Global Energy Demand Seen Up 44 Percent By 2030
Tom Doggett and Ayesha Rascoe, PlanetArk 28 May 09;

WASHINGTON - Global energy demand is expected to soar 44 percent over the next two decades with most of the demand coming from developing countries such as China and Russia, the U.S. government's top energy forecasting agency said on Wednesday.

The worldwide economic downturn has hit energy consumption, but an expected recovery next year could respark demand and boost prices, the Energy Information Administration said in its new forecast.

U.S. oil prices are forecast to rise from an average $61 barrel this year to $110 in 2015 and $130 in 2030.

Oil prices "begin to rise in 2010-2011 period as the economy rebounds and global demand once again grows more rapidly than non-OPEC liquid supply," EIA acting administrator Howard Gruenspecht told a news conference.

Global oil demand is expected to rise to 107 million barrels per day over the next two decades from nearly 84 million bpd this year. Oil will account for 32 percent of the world's energy supply by 2030 from about 36 percent in 2006.

Almost 75 percent of the rise in global energy demand through 2030 will occur in developing countries, particularly China, India, Russia and Brazil, the agency said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will continue to provide 40 percent of the world's oil supplies during the period.

Renewable energy, like wind and solar power, will be the fastest growing energy source, making up 11 percent of global supplies. Biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, are expected to reach 5.9 million bpd by 2030.

The EIA said its long-term forecast does not reflect efforts the United States may take to cut greenhouse gas emissions or an expected international agreement to curb greenhouse gases.

Gruenspecht said the agency will analyze the possible impact of climate change legislation approved last week by the U.S. House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee.

But he said the bill may not change energy use initially, citing carbon dioxide emission limits and the allowed transfer of carbon cuts to developing countries.

"One could imagine that one could comply at least with the 2020 part of this proposal calling for a 17 percent reduction (from 2005 levels) just using the offsets and not having a significant change in our consumption or the way we use energy at all," Gruenspecht said.

If global climate change laws and policies don't change, world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will rise by a third to 40 billion metric tons a year, the agency said.

The EIA's report also found that global natural gas demand will increase by almost 50 percent to 153 trillion cubic feet. The agency said that unconventional natural gas production, particularly from gas shale, will make the United States "virtually self sufficient in natural gas supply in 2030."

The EIA's forecast also predicts that in 2030:

* World production of unconventional petroleum resources, including oil sands, extra-heavy oil and coal-to-liquids, will quadruple to 13.4 million bpd, representing 13 percent of total global petroleum supplies.

* Iraq's crude oil production will jump from 2 million bpd to 5 million bpd.

* China's electricity generation from coal-fired power plants will triple.

(Editing by Russell Blinch, Neil Stempleman and David Gregorio)