Emissions target a deft balancing act for Singapore

Meeting international obligations will mean higher energy costs
Chua Mui Hoong, Straits Times 4 Dec 09;

IT WASN'T too long ago that Singapore was in the resistant camp when it came to climate change. It was the 168th country to accede to the Kyoto Protocol in 2006, nine years after it was first inked.

In the three years since, Singapore has come up to speed on climate change. The announcement on Wednesday that Singapore will cut carbon emissions by 16per cent from 'business as usual' levels by 2020 was fronted by no less than three government ministers, including Senior Minister S. Jayakumar, who will head the Singapore delegation to the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen next week.

With this firm pledge - contingent on there being a legally binding international agreement on meaningful cuts - Singapore joins the ranks of countries prepared to make substantive commitments to reduce their emission of greenhouse gases.

The Government's nuanced position on this - as on any other international issue - is governed by one simple consideration: Singapore's national interest.

The decision to take voluntary, self-funded action to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 16per cent balances quite deftly Singapore's international obligations against the domestic consequences of rising energy costs.

First, Singapore's international obligations: Climate change is shaping up to be the next big global issue after free trade - only even more polarising. Developed and developing countries are at an impasse, with the former wanting big polluters like India and China to cut emissions and the latter wanting developed countries to finance any cuts they make, since developed countries' past industrialisation efforts are responsible for most of the environmental damage. This disagreement is unlikely to be resolved easily.

Despite its high per capita income, Singapore's position on global warming is closer to that of developing countries. It resisted pressure to sign on to any Annexe One agreement, which would have made its cutting carbon emissions mandatory. Singapore argued that it bears no historical debt as a young nation-state, and that it has no alternative like wind or hydropower, to replace fossil fuels.

But continued insistence along these lines, as justified as they may be, can wear thin the patience of other countries which point disapprovingly at Singapore's energy-intensive economy and high per capita emissions. As climate change issues become mainstreamed and feed back into the free trade process, holding firm to Singapore's former position could disadvantage the country.

As a scientific consensus developed on the human contribution to global warming, Singapore accepted the 'precautionary principle' - that it is good to reduce reliance on (ever dearer) fossil fuels anyway, given their growing scarcity.

As Prof Jayakumar put it pithily, a low-lying country like Singapore can't afford to wait for total scientific certainty on global warming and rising sea levels. Rather, it should act when the consensus of opinion is 'quite overwhelming although not unanimous'.

Hence, it is in Singapore's interest to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and move to a lower-carbon lifestyle. Though it is bound by several constraints - among them, its miniscule size, the lack of alternative energy sources, dependency on energy-intensive economic activities - it must do its bit to reduce global warming. And in doing so, it can go some way towards meeting the expectations of developed countries like Australia and Japan, which want the Republic to be subject to tougher targets.

Singapore supports the position of developing countries that there is a 'common but differentiated responsibility' when it comes to global warming. Every nation has a responsibility to act but some are obliged to - or are in a position to - do more than others.

Applying this principle, Singapore wants to do its bit, though it emits only 0.2per cent of the world's carbon emissions. Its efforts would have little impact on the globe as a whole, but it will play its part, even at some domestic cost.

This is the other consideration the Singapore Government has to balance: The country's international obligation versus the domestic consequences of higher energy costs.

The Government has said it will use regulatory and fiscal (that is, tax) measures to influence households and industries towards a low-carbon lifestyle.

It will be at least a year before any action plan to reduce carbon emissions kicks in. A binding agreement among UN member-states to reduce carbon emissions will be signed only next year, at the very earliest.

Judging from the lack of online chatter, even netizens don't seem to have quite digested the meaning of the 16per cent cut. By contrast, the news made a splash on regional and international websites, with environmental websites picking it up within hours, and even the English website of China's People Daily carrying it.

As the news percolates its way to the heartland, expect unhappiness over the impending higher energy costs.

Will there be a tax on energy usage? How high? How generous will the 'offsets' package be to cushion the impact? When businesses pass on higher energy costs to consumers - as they surely will - will public transport fares, hawker food prices, housing costs, all go up too?

Environmental groups may cavil that the 16per cent pledge is at the low end of the UN recommendation that developing countries cut emissions by 15 to 30per cent below 'business as usual' projections by 2020. But most Singaporeans will be pleased that the Government chose to heed its domestic constituency.

The decision to join the climate change action brigade is only the first step - and the easy one. The tough work lies ahead: at the negotiating table, to begin with, and then later, in bringing Singaporeans on board, to accept the inevitable short-term cost increases for the sake of the long-term benefit of more sustainable development.

Global warming: Doing what's practical
Straits Times 4 Dec 09;

IN CLIMATE issues as in most matters, Singapore strives to do what is right, not what is popular. So it is with the urgent international movement to slow greenhouse gas emissions. Ahead of what is expected to be a rancorous climate conference in Copenhagen next week, the Government has announced it would cut emissions to 16 per cent below what it describes as 'business as usual' levels, by 2020. It is not an eye-popping move, but practical. The initiative will do more against global warming if it can spur industrialised countries and other holdouts to show their commitment.

As a small country, Singapore can make little difference even if it achieves the target. This is not to absolve mini-states of their share of responsibility on an escalating force that will affect all of humankind. Even though Singapore is not obliged to make cuts, as Senior Minister S. Jayakumar pointed out, doing so will add momentum to consensus on a binding climate agreement. Unless all countries are required to reduce emissions, Singapore's efforts will remain voluntary. While it hopes what is right will turn out also to be what is popular at Copenhagen, the conference outcome will, by the same token, make little difference to the scope and pace of Singapore's green programme. It has done much in the last two decades. It recycles more than half of its waste, thus reducing landfill methane gas output. It has cut carbon intensity by nearly a third. It switched from oil to natural gas in 2001 to slash emissions in electricity generation by a quarter.

The potential for further reduction will narrow as existing energy efficiencies and other green opportunities are grasped. So, the exercise is not without cost. Neither are alternative energy sources like wind and hydro power options. Going beyond the already impressive Sustainable Singapore Blueprint will entail further adjustments by households and businesses as well as the Government. National interest, however, motivates Singapore more strongly than does external expectation. Regulatory, fiscal and other measures which the Government said it would implement to meet the target are only one side of the story.

The other side consists of technological innovations that also have a market beyond Singapore. Clean energy research and development, green buildings and pollution control are all national initiatives that offer benefits internationally. The global warming adversity offers Singapore a policy, business and technology opportunity. Binding or not, the emissions target it has set will further its interests even as it contributes to the search for an international solution.