Outcome unclear as leaders arrive at climate talks

Arthur Max, Associated Press Yahoo News 16 Dec 09;

COPENHAGEN – The success of the U.N. climate conference hung in the balance Tuesday as China and the U.S. deadlocked over whether Beijing will allow the world to check its books and verify promised cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

Princes, presidents and premiers crowded into a vast hall for the formal opening of the largest summit ever held on climate change, but attention was on the leaders of the world's two largest polluters — President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao — who plan to arrive for the final days of talks on a framework to control heat-trapping gases.

Negotiators who have been working for 10 days floated new draft documents on lesser issues. But they left open the vexing questions of emissions targets for industrial countries, billions of dollars a year in funding for poor countries to contend with global warming, and verifying the actions of emerging powers like China to ensure they keep their promises.

"In these very hours, we are balancing between success and failure," said conference president Connie Hedegaard of Denmark. Success is possible, she said, "but I must also warn you: We can fail — probably without anyone really wanting it so, but because we spent too much time on posturing, on repeating positions, on formalities."

The rest of the 115 leaders were expected to arrive before Friday's summit finale to sign a political outline of a global warming treaty that would set limits on carbon dioxide pollution by the United States, China, India as well as extending emissions targets for the 37 countries regulated under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

"There is no understatement that with your signatures you will write our future," Britain's Prince Charles told the conference.

As the conference headed into the final stretch, delegates were disheartened that so many large and small issues remained unresolved, with prospects for a meaningful agreement receding.

Prodipto Ghosh, a member of the Indian delegation, said the negotiations were "not going good" and that fundamental differences between rich and poor nations would be "difficult to bridge" by the end of the week.

Experienced negotiators recall many previous conferences where the deal was done in the final overnight session, against all odds.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was coming Thursday to hold a round of private consultations in preparation for Obama's arrival a day later, said an official in Washington, speaking on condition of anonymity because the trip has not been formally announced.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he was positive about a deal but also expressed frustration with the progress to date.

"I'm afraid that negotiations have been too slow," Ban said. "I think all the countries can and must do more."

Delegates were nearing a deal to protect tropical forests, although several substantive issues remained unresolved, including targets for reducing deforestation and money to pay for conservation plans and how that money would be raised, according to the latest draft of a text seen by The Associated Press.

The program called REDD, for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, would be financed either by richer nations' taxpayers or by a carbon-trading mechanism — a system in which each country would have an emissions ceiling, and those who undershoot it can sell their remainder to over-polluters.

Political and entertainment celebrities crowded onto the Copenhagen stage, followed by a trail of cameras: California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former Vice President Al Gore and actor-activist Darryl Hannah. Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe came, exempted from a European travel ban because he was attending an international conference. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown arrived, saying he could act as a broker in the talks.

Yvo de Boer, the top U.N. climate official who presides over the two-week affair, gave his daily news conference with an orange-and-white life preserver leaning against his podium and joked that he hoped the world wouldn't need it.

The top U.S. and Chinese diplomats at the talks, Todd Stern and Xie Zhenhua, held yet another in a series of private meetings, but neither side indicated any break in the stalemate on the verification issue.

An Asian diplomat who speaks often with both sides said China and the U.S. have made verification a red-line issue and said he feared it could cause a deal to collapse. Neither said has made any serious concessions, the diplomat told the AP on condition of anonymity for fear of compromising his negotiating ability.

China promised last month to slow its carbon emissions, but stressed the move would be voluntary without international assistance or financing — reflecting its reluctance to commit to internationally verifiable standards.

Washington welcomed Beijing's pledge to nearly halve the ratio of pollution to economic output in the next decade but said China should put that target in an international agreement and open it to fact-checking.

"There ought to be some measure of international consultation or review or dialogue," Stern said. Other countries want to "understand the assumptions behind the numbers."

Yu Qungtain, Xie's deputy at the talks, rebuffed any verification demand that goes beyond previous agreements. "We cannot agree," he said.

The Asian diplomat said China is concerned that verification could lead to penalties for failing to meet its commitments. But he also said the United States was pushing for binding commitments from developing countries that they cannot accept.

"The U.S. is trying all sorts of verbal formulations," said David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council.

China already subjects some data for review under other agreements: it allows the World Bank to check its economic figures and the International Energy Agency to go over its energy output, said Doniger, a former climate negotiator. A new climate agreement might lead to even more intrusive inspections, however.

Doniger saw a possible solution to the dispute in a trade-off in which China would agree to have its figures reviewed in exchange for a firm U.S. offer on financing for developing countries to help them deal with rising seas, drought and other results of global warming. The U.S. has said it cannot put a figure on the table until Congress legislates a climate and energy package, expected in the first half of 2010.

China is grouped with developing nations at the talks, but the U.S. doesn't consider China to be in need of climate-change aid.

The U.S. also has a weapon it has not yet used in the negotiations: the threat to tax Chinese-made goods deemed to be cheaper because they are made with higher carbon emissions than similar U.S. goods — known as "border adjustments."

Yu said the tactic amounted to trade protectionism using climate change as an excuse, and was unacceptable. On protectionist issues, he said, "no one will benefit. We will all lose."

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Associated Press reporters Dina Cappiello in Washington and Cara Anna in Beijing contributed to this report.

'Seal a deal', climate talks told
Richard Black BBC News 15 Dec 09;

Three days of action from ministers are needed to "seal a deal" at the climate talks in Copenhagen, according to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

Speaking at the opening of the high-level segment, he told delegates they had the chance to change history.

But governments remain deadlocked on many key issues, including the size of emission targets, finance, and verification of emission curbs.

Demonstrations are expected on Wednesday as ministers convene.

Campaign groups are talking of mounting actions inside and outside the conference centre.

There is anger about the glacial progress of some segments of the talks and about logistical problems that have seen most people from NGOs unable to enter the venue.

UK Climate Secretary Ed Miliband acknowledged that talks "could still fail".

'Decisive moment'

Mr Ban told delegates there was still an "enormous amount of work to be done" if a deal was to be achieved.

"For three years, I have sought to bring world leaders to the table," he said.

"No-one will get everything they want; but if we work together, then everyone will get what they need."

Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told ministers they must make this conference "a decisive moment of change".

"Climate change is higher on the agenda than ever before," he said.

"And so it should be; the grim projections from science grow more alarming each day and already many face the dire consequences of global warming."

Different visions of what the science implies are, though, the cause of one of the most fundamental fault lines running between delegations here - what figure should be adopted as the target for limiting the global average temperature rise since pre-industrial times.

Mr Ban came under fire from developing countries after asserting in a BBC interview that a deal here must "put us on the path of limiting global temperature rise within 2C".

Small island states, and other countries that consider themselves vulnerable to climate impacts, have been demanding a lower target of 1.5C and the issue is still under negotiation.

"It is simply a true fact - if temperatures get to 2C, that spells disaster and almost doom to our countries," said Bruno Sekoli of the Lesotho delegation, which chairs the bloc of Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

Bolivia's ambassador, Pablo Solon, added: "This is the Secretary General; he can't take sides on an issue like this."

Britain's Prince Charles, who also addressed the opening of the high-level segment of the conference, said the planet had "reached a crisis" which society had just seven years to solve.

"With issues of such magnitude," he said, "it is easy to focus solely on the challenges, the worst-case scenarios, the 'what-ifs' of failure.

"But take a moment to consider the opportunities if we succeed... a healthier, safer and more sustainable, economically robust world."

Stumbling blocks

Elsewhere in the conference, discussions continued - mainly behind closed doors - on some of the issues that continue to divide governments two years after the process towards a new global climate deal started and just three days before it is due to conclude.

Mr Miliband, who co-chaired talks on finance, said there had been acknowledgement of the need for "significantly scaled-up public funding".

Developing countries have demanded that a majority, if not all, of the money they will receive in future for clean development and climate adaptation should come from public funds; but developed nations have been equally keen that a substantial share - perhaps the majority - should come from levies on the prospective global carbon market.

Another of the discussion groups, on emission pledges by developing countries, made little progress.

A senior source told the BBC that the main stumbling block was US insistence that commitments should be legally binding.

China in particular is adamant that such plans must be voluntary and that emission curbs should not be subject to international verification - something that many members of the US Senate are said to regard as key if they are to back any agreement here.

US chief negotiator Todd Stern said he did not expect the US to increase its current offer of cutting emissions by about 3% from 1990 levels by 2020.

"I am not anticipating any change in the mitigation commitment," he told reporters.

The US announced that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is to attend the final two days of the summit, in addition to President Barack Obama.

Walk-outs

Around the conference centre, campaign groups gave advance notice of actions expected inside and outside the venue on Wednesday.

Having allowed three times more people to register than the centre can hold, the UN climate convention and the Danish hosts have limited numbers of NGOs to 7,000 on Wednesday, falling to 1,000 on Thursday and just 90 on Friday when heads of state and government are scheduled to attend.

Activists are planning a series of morning marches outside the centre, with some groups attempting unauthorised entry.

A walkout - possibly involving government delegates - is anticipated, and there are also plans for a "sleep-in" on Wednesday night.

Organisers say the actions are intended to be non-violent.

Eyes of the world are on you, UN chief tells climate summit
Chris Otton Yahoo News 16 Dec 09;

COPENHAGEN (AFP) – UN chief Ban Ki-moon urged world leaders Tuesday at a "defining moment in history" to put aside selfish national interest and answer a global clamour to halt the juggernaut of climate change.

With just over three days left to broker one of the most ambitious, yet also fiendishly complex, deals in human history, conference chair Denmark appealed for all sides to embrace the spirit of compromise.

But China and the United States -- the world's two biggest carbon polluters -- brushed aside European calls for concessions on emissions reductions, the thorniest issue of all.

The summit aims at sealing national pledges to curb the heat-trapping carbon gases wreaking havoc with Earth's climate system, and set up a mechanism to provide billions of dollars for poor countries facing worsening drought, flood, storms and rising seas.

Crowned on Friday by a meeting of some 120 heads of state and government, the outline political deal would be fleshed out next year in further talks, culminating in a treaty that would take effect from 2013. Related article: UN system to cut its carbon footprint

But former US vice president and environmental activist Al Gore, voicing widely held fears that Copenhagen might yield only a partial success, called for world leaders to meet in Mexico City in July to complete the process.

Ban, speaking at the formal start of the full ministerial session known as the high level segment, spoke of a "defining moment in history.

"We know what we must do. We know what the world expects. Our job here and now is to seal the deal, a deal in our common interest."

Talks were moving too slowly, he warned.

"If they want to leave all these issues to the leaders, it may be very difficult for them to agree in just one or two days," he later told reporters.

The talks' chairwoman, Denmark's Connie Hedegaard, said success was still within reach.

But she added: "We can't risk failure. No one here can carry that responsibility. That means that the keyword for the next two days must be compromise."

But both China and the United States appeared in little mood to move on the key issue of emissions.

US President Barack Obama has offered to cut US carbon emissions by 17 percent by 2020 over a 2005 benchmark, a figure that aligns with legislation put before the US Congress.

The offer by the United States, the world's second biggest polluter after China, has been widely criticised by other parties as inadequate.

"I am not anticipating any change in the mitigation commitment," said US chief delegate Todd Stern, explaining that it was tied to legislation currently before Congress.

Beijing's climate ambassador said China's voluntary plan for braking the forecast growth in its emissions was not open to negotiation.

"We announced those targets, we don't intend to put them up for discussion," Yu Qingtai told reporters.

Europe, which has already pledged to reduce emissions by 20 percent by 2020 in comparison with 1990 and offered to go to 30 percent if others follow suit, said the big polluters had to relent.

"There are two countries in the world representing half the emissions of the world, and that's the United States and China," said Swedish Environment Minister Andreas Carlgren, representing the 27-nation European Union.

European powerhouse Germany likewise pointed the finger. Related Article: Merkel 'nervous' climate talks could fail

"Both want to keep every option open up to the last hours of the conference ... We don't have much time left," said its environment minister Norbert Roettgen.

The European Union's new president Herman Van Rompuy also urged other nations to follow Europe's lead, telling reporters in Lisbon, "We have to deal with other urgent questions. The most important of course is climate change."

EU leaders last week agreed a package of 7.2 billion euros (10.6 billion dollars) in aid to help developing countries tackle global warming.

But the Group of 77 developing nations -- actually a caucus of 130 states that includes China -- said the proposal failed to address the issue of setting up long-term financing mechanisms.

In Copenhagen meanwhile, reflecting deadlock, a new draft text gave no figures for a long-term goal of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, a peak for emissions, an intended limit to warming, nor on financing for poor countries exposed to climate change. Related article: Long queues, restrictions spark anger at UN climate talks

These core questions were farmed out to small parties of ministers, charged with brokering a consensus by Friday.

The summit is billed as one of the most important gatherings of the post-World War II era.

Mark Lynas: 'At this rate, Copenhagen will be a disaster'
Mark Lynas, The Independent 15 Dec 09;

The battle lines are drawn. The armies are lined up. The guns are loaded. But here in Copenhagen, a phony war is underway.

For the past two days, negotiators have been bogged down in minor technical details and endless delays. For hours plenary meetings have been taken up by countries complaining about the process. Then finally solutions are agreed, and everyone files out to the relevant gatherings – only to find them cancelled on arrival. All of Monday disappeared down that hole.

Today, it looked like some real work was getting done. But with just hours left before the ‘high-level’ segment (with ministers, and – increasingly – heads of state themselves) begins, several different texts were in circulation, all laden with square brackets (indicating disagreement) around even minor issues of contention that should have been resolved last week.

At this rate, Copenhagen will not only fail, it will be a disaster.

Of course, these conferences – especially high-stakes ones like this – never end that way. Some face-saving arrangement is always cobbled together. But the question now is when the phony war will erupt into open hostilities – and whether heads of state will be able to resolve them in the time they have left.

The biggest question, one which has bedevilled climate negotiations for more than a decade, is finally reaching crunch point – about whether developing countries, which were exempted from taking on carbon emissions targets by Kyoto, will finally agree on binding measures to rein in their future emissions.

Everyone agrees that industrialised countries should act first; that much was agreed as far back as 1995. And some can claim to have done so, in Europe at least. But the Bush Administration lost us a decade, and time has now run out: science demands that for temperature rises to be limited to 1.5 degrees, and carbon concentrations eventually returned to 350 parts per million, global emissions must peak by 2015.

It is no accident that both India and China oppose any mention in the negotiating text of this global peaking year, or of an eventual target for atmospheric carbon levels of 350ppm. They know that accepting these limits necessarily implies that their era of high-carbon growth is over. For these science-based targets to be met, India cannot burn all its coal. Nor can China. Nor can South Africa. They must shift to low-carbon growth, and they must start that shift now.

In fairness, no-one is arguing that developing countries should take on mandatory Kyoto-style reductions right now. Instead the debate is around how far their future emissions must depart from the ‘business-as-usual’ baseline. The small island states – who stand to lose most as sea levels rise – now argue that developing countries should aim for 15-30% below baseline by 2020. China and India say they will never accept this.

The United States is also central here. America will never ratify Kyoto – everyone knows this. But the Obama administration has come here offering serious targets, of initial 17 per cent cuts below 2005 levels by 2020. It could deepen this ambition, but Obama faces a tough (if not impossible) battle to get any climate plan through the Senate, and the administration also knows that it is politically toxic domestically to take on any improved target unless China does likewise.

These are the two main belligerents facing each other over the trenches here at Copenhagen. In the next day or two the cannons will open fire. When the dust dies down, we will see whether we still have a habitable climate left.