After Cancun: Australia, Japan, US positions

U.N. Talks Up Pressure On Australia's Climate Target
James Grubel and David Fogarty PlanetArk 15 Dec 10;

Australia's fragile government is under increasing pressure to deepen its target to cut carbon emissions after U.N. climate talks in Mexico ended with an agreement to step up the fight against global warming.

Failure to harden the target would anger the Greens, whose support is vital to Australia's ruling Labor Party, but risks enraging the powerful mining sector and conservative opposition.

The Greens have piled on the pressure since the end of the talks in Cancun at the weekend, saying Labor's target to cut emissions by 5 percent from 2000 levels by 2020 is far too weak.

"Mexico put the mojo back into the U.N. climate talks," said John Connor, CEO of the Climate Institute think tank. "What came out of Cancun made it quite clear that we're talking about beyond 5 percent because we are talking about a world taking action."

Australia is the world's top coal exporter, generates more than 80 percent of its electricity from coal and its per-capita emissions are among the highest in the developed world.

The government has said putting a price on carbon is the only way to cut carbon emissions growth from the A$1.2 trillion economy. But it has struggled to win backing from powerful industry lobbies and the issue has proven politically poisonous.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has pledged to speed up a decision on how to price carbon, either by a tax, emissions trading scheme or a combination, by next year and the Greens are demanding tougher action to match Europe's 20 percent cut and Japan's pledged 25 percent reduction.

"The Cancun agreement keeps the global negotiations alive on the understanding that everybody needs to lift their sights to stronger action if we are to deliver a safe climate," Greens deputy leader, Senator Christine Milne, said in a statement.

She called for Australia to deepen the cut to 25 to 40 percent by 2020. The government in the past pledged to cut by up 25 percent if other big emitters such as China and the United States signed up to a tough climate pact.

FIRST CUT NOT THE DEEPEST

The mining industry, however, said Australia's reliance on resource exports exposed the country to higher costs than other developed countries when it comes to curbing emissions.

"Even a 5 percent cut for Australia costs us much more in lost gross domestic product than a bigger cut in Europe," Minerals Council of Australia deputy chief executive Brendan Pearson told Reuters.

He said government modeling found a 5 percent cut would cut economic growth by more than 1 percent, and would be double the impact of a cut of up to 20 percent in Europe.

But analysts say the government faces pressure to act.

"We can no longer assume the government will simply be able to proceed on its own terms, especially if that is a minus-5 percent target," said Martijn Wilder, global head of Baker & McKenzie's climate change practice in Sydney.

"We should also not dismiss the fact that if the government wants to get its legislation through the parliament, it may be the case that the Greens and the independents insist on having a higher target of 10 or 15 percent," he told Reuters.

From July 2011, the government will need support from the Greens to pass laws through the upper house Senate. The government also relies on support from three independents and a Green lawmaker in the lower house, who want action on climate change and are part of a multi-party panel on carbon pricing.

Tough action on pricing emissions and a tougher target would pit the government against big polluters, such as miners.

"The real test for the government is whether the presence of the Greens, independents and experts in the Multi Party Climate Committee will give them the strength to stand up to the rent-seekers and commit to good policy with the ambitious goal to transform Australia's economy," Milne said.

The Cancun talks put off a decision on the final shape of an agreement but put the troubled U.N. negotiations back on track with a package of modest agreements.

Under the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, Australia was among the few rich nations allowed to increase its emissions during a 2008-12 first phase.

Emissions are now about 8 percent above 1990 levels and the government, and industry groups, say even a 5 percent cut by 2020 will be tough.

"Australia's 5 percent minimum target is a big ask for a growing, inherently emissions-intensive economy," said Heather Ridout, chief executive of Australian Industry Group, which represents manufacturers.

"The 5 percent cut to 2000 levels equates to around 21 percent below the business-as-usual projection for 2020. That means our economy would have to reduce, avoid or offset more than one in every five emissions it would otherwise make."

(Editing by Robert Birsel)

Japan: Will Keep Seeking Wider Climate Pact Than Kyoto
Risa Maeda PlanetArk 15 Dec 10;

Japan will continue to push for a broad climate treaty, that would include major greenhouse gas emitters China and the United States, as an accord reached last week in Mexico left the door open to such a possibility, its environment minister said.

Minister of the Environment Ryu Matsumoto, who headed Japanese delegates at the U.N climate talks in Cancun, said on Tuesday Japan would continue to push for a wider framework than the Kyoto Protocol whose current round ends in 2012 and obliges almost 40 rich countries -- except the United States, which never ratified it -- to cut emissions blamed for warming the planet or face penalties.

At Cancun, Japan, along with Canada and Russia, opposed extending Kyoto, a position which developing countries blamed for causing a major delay in U.N.-led climate talks.

Matsumoto reiterated that Japan would prefer a broader agreement, based on pledged emission-cut goals by 140 countries including the United States and China under the Copenhagen Accord, reached last year. He said Kyoto is out-dated as it covers less than 30 percent of current global emissions.

"We held bilateral talks with dozens of countries (at Cancun) in which we said we should keep up with the Copenhagen Accord," Matsumoto said.

"I think Japan's argument to some extent has been understood."

He also said Japan would stick to its plan to introduce a compulsory emissions trading system and other green steps included in a climate bill Tokyo has submitted to parliament.

The government, which doesn't have a majority in the upper house, will need to rely on other parties to pass the climate bill next year.

(Editing by Joseph Radford)

Despite Cancun deal, US shifts away on climate
Shaun Tandon Yahoo News 14 Dec 10;

CANCUN, Mexico (AFP) – A new international accord on global warming has heartened environmentalists, but casting a shadow is the political shift in the United States where legislative climate efforts died in 2010.

President Barack Obama's administration played an active role brokering the December 11 deal in Cancun, Mexico, which pledged deep cuts in carbon emissions blamed for climate change and set up a new global fund to administer aid.

But in Washington, a bill to impose restrictions on carbon died in the Senate. That was even before mid-term elections in which Obama's Democratic Party was trounced by the Republicans, some of whom doubt most scientists' view that the world is heating up.

"Obviously, whether or not the US can live up to its commitment is an issue that is stuck in the back of people's minds," said Jake Schmidt of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group.

It marks a sharp turnaround from just two years ago, when Obama's election particularly cheered the European Union which was deeply at odds with previous president George W. Bush, who rejected efforts to curb climate change.

Chief US negotiator Todd Stern, whom other envoys welcomed with applause when he replaced Bush's climate team, was cautious on whether the Cancun accord could turn around the mood in Washington.

Stern said the accord should satisfy US political players who have insisted on verifiable action on climate change by other nations -- especially China, which has surpassed the United States as the largest carbon emitter.

"It doesn't mean I think you're suddenly going to get the votes to pass last year's bill, because that's not going to happen right away. But I think it's generally a helpful development," Stern said.

Senator John Kerry, who spearheaded the climate bill, welcomed the Cancun accord and said that far more action was needed "to prevent catastrophe," with experts pointing to growing storms and disasters as evidence of climate change.

"The United States needs to get back in the game today instead of being held back by obstructionism and broken politics at home, which have hurt us not just in the race to address climate change, but which have set us back in the race to define the clean energy economy and all the good jobs that come with it," the Massachusetts senator and former presidential candidate said.

But Republican lawmakers have criticized one of the key planks of the Cancun accord -- a 100 billion-dollar-a-year fund starting in 2020 to assist the poorest countries worst affected by climate change blamed largely on industrial nations' emissions.

In a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during the Cancun talks, four Republican senators, led by John Barrasso of Wyoming, raised questions about the science behind climate change and noted that the United States was confronted by high unemployment and a spiraling debt.

"It makes no sense for the United States to now spend billions of taxpayer dollars to fight climate change in other countries," they wrote.

"If the administration is serious about listening to the American people, they will cancel this international climate change bailout."

Japan and the European Union have led pledges to the proposed fund, with Clinton saying last year at the Copenhagen climate summit that the United States would also contribute.

The Cancun accord set up the practicalities for administering the aid. In a point pushed by the United States, the new Green Climate Fund will be administered by the World Bank.

Alden Meyer, a climate talks watcher at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said it would be impossible to convince climate skeptics but that the Cancun accord was welcome after the widely criticized Copenhagen accord.

A collapse of talks in Cancun "could have been used by opponents saying, 'The world isn't serious and we told you so,'" Meyer said.

"So we avoided a negative, and we got a small positive," he said.

Despite the shift in Washington, a number of US states are moving on their own against climate change. California, the most populous state, is putting together a cap-and-trade system after voters rejected a referendum to stop it.