Global resource consumption to triple by 2050: UN

Yahoo News 13 May 11;

UNITED NATIONS (AFP) – Global consumption of natural resources could almost triple to 140 billion tons a year by 2050 unless nations take drastic steps, the United Nations warned Thursday.

A UN environment panel said the world cannot sustain the tearaway rate of use of minerals, ores and fossil and plant fuels. It called on governments to "decouple" economic growth from natural resource consumption.

With the world population expected to hit 9.3 billion by 2050 and developing nations becoming more prosperous, the report warned "the prospect of much higher resource consumption levels is far beyond what is likely sustainable."

A UN Environment Programme (UNEP) panel said the world is already running out of cheap and quality sources of some essential materials such as oil, copper and gold, which in turn need rising volumes of fuel and water to produce.

It said governments must find ways to do more with less, at a faster rate than economic growth -- the notion of "decoupling".

"We must realize that prosperity and well-being do not depend on consuming ever-greater quantities of resources," said the report.

"Decoupling is not about stopping growth. It's about doing more with less. Global resource consumption is exploding. It's not a trend that is in any way sustainable."

Total world resource use has risen from about six billion tons in 1900 to 49 billion tons in 2000 and has already gone up to an estimated 59 billion tons now.

Currently people in rich nations consume an average of 16 tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass -- fuels and other products from plants -- per year. In some wealthy countries the figure rises to 40 tons.

In India, however, the average person only consumes four tons per year, the report said.

The panel said there has to be a major rethink of resource use and "massive investment" in technological, financial and social innovation to at least freeze consumption levels in wealthy countries.

"People believe that environmental 'bads' are the price we must pay for economic 'goods'. However, we cannot and need not continue to act as if this trade-off is inevitable," said UNEP executive director Achim Steiner.

Mark Swilling, a professor at the University of Stellenbosch in South Africa who was one of the authors of the report, said rapid industrialization and the growing population was leading to the resource crisis.

"There is another billion middle-class consumers on the way as a result of rapid industrialization in developing countries," he said.

He said that current rates of efficiency to make goods and services mean that "we are looking at that massive growth to 140 billion tonnes."

With populations in rich countries stabilizing or falling, the main challenge would be in developing countries.

The latest of a series of UNEP reports on economic and environmental sustainability said decoupling has started but is not being activated quickly enough.

Between 1980 and 2002, the resources required for 1,000 dollars of economic output fell from 2.1 tons to 1.6 tons. The increasing move of people from the countryside to cities as helped as this aids campaigns to achieve economies of scale, the report said.

The authors praised Germany and Japan for their move to set goals for energy and resource productivity. It highlighted how South Africa's constitution requires "ecologically sustainable development and the use of natural resources."

China has also set out to build an "ecological civilization" and the report said that China would be a "test case" because of its huge population and growing industrialization.

"The measures that China introduces to reconcile these objectives will be of crucial significance for every other developing country with similar policy intentions," the report said.

A world summit on sustainable development is to be held in Rio de Janeiro in June next year.

World Must Curb Resource Use; China A Test Case: U.N
Alister Doyle PlanetArk 13 May 11;

The world must curb soaring use of resources ranging from coal to copper to prevent consumption from reaching ruinous levels by 2050, according to a U.N. report on Thursday that says China's economy will be a test case.

All countries should seek economic growth that does not rely on increasing exploitation of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass -- such as timber -- as poverty declines and the world population rises, it said.

Resource use totals about 47 to 59 billion tonnes a year -- according to the study which lumps everything together by weight from oil and gold ore to sand or cement used in construction. Without restrictions, that could leap to 140 billion by 2050.

"Decoupling makes sense on all the economic, social and environmental dials," Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) which produced the 174-page report, said in a statement.

"Decoupling is not about stopping growth. It's about doing more with less. Global resource consumption is exploding. It's not a trend that is in any way sustainable," added Ernst von Weizsacker, co-chair of the UNEP resource panel.

"China is, in many ways, the test case for the global economy," the report said of the most populous nation with 1.3 billion citizens of almost 7 billion worldwide. Beijing in 2007 set a goal of becoming an "ecological civilization."

Each of the world's citizens consumes about eight to 10 tonnes per year of the materials on average, with people in rich nations using double the average and those in poor African nations far less. China's use is around average.

GROWTH, RESTRAINT

China "wants to continue its rapid economic growth but use resources more sustainably," the report said. Beijing's steps to reconcile those goals "will be of crucial significance for every other developing country with similar policy intentions."

The study said decoupling was already under way, but needed to accelerate. World gross domestic product grew by a factor of 23 in the 20th century, resource use rose by a factor of eight.

"There is a need for policy changes. The market alone won't do it," Marina Fischer-Kowalski, a lead author of the report at the Alpen-Adria University in Austria, told Reuters.

"It's a common challenge to reach a different kind of growth," Mark Swilling, the other lead author at the University of Stellenbosch in South Africa, told Reuters.

Some cheap and high-quality sources of materials such as oil, copper and gold were already running low. Extraction from lower-grade deposits was already adding strains by requiring ever more use of fossil fuels and fresh water.

A steady shift to living in cities might help -- people in urban areas generally consume less than those in rural areas.

Steiner said the level of resources used by each person "may need to fall to between 5 and 6 tonnes" by 2050. Even so, the study acknowledged that seemed too restrictive as a global goal.

Per capita consumption of the key resources in countries including the United States, Canada and Australia were now well above 20 tonnes. A less drastic scenario would mean all nations aiming for around 8 tonnes per capita by 2050, still demanding deep cuts by rich nations.

(Editing by Elizabeth Fullerton)

Rising resource use threatens future growth, warns UN
Mark Kinver BBC News 12 May 11;

The world is set to consume three times more natural resources than current rates by the middle of the century, according to a United Nations report.

It predicts that humanity will annually use about 140 billion tonnes of fossil fuels, minerals and ores by 2050.

The authors call for resource consumption to be "decoupled" from economic growth, and producers to do "more with less".

Growth in population and prosperity are the main drivers, they observe.

The report is the latest in a series by the UN Environment Programme's (Unep) International Resources Panel.

"Decoupling makes sense on all the economic, social and environmental dials, " said Unep executive director Achim Steiner.

"People believe environmental 'bads' are the price we must pay for economic 'goods'.

"However, we cannot and need not continue to act as if this trade-off is inevitable."

Co-lead author Mark Swilling from the University of Stellenbosch, South Africa, explained what would drive the surge in demand for resources.

"The reality is that there is another billion middle-class consumers on the way as a result of rapid industrialisation in developing countries," he told BBC News.

"If the resources required to generate these goods and services are used as efficiently as they currently are, then you are looking at that massive growth to 140 billion tonnes."

Professor Swilling added that population growth also played a role in the projected increase.

"If you add one Indian to the global population, you are talking about adding up to four tonnes of resource consumption each year. If you add an average Canadian, then you are adding another 25 tonnes," he explained.

"Developed world populations are stable, and some are even falling, so the real challenge... is in the developing world."

'Global test case'

The projection is based on data on four key resources: minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass.

Global average annual per capita consumption in 2000 was 8-10 tonnes, about twice as much as in 1900, the report said.

The combination of population growth, continuing high levels of consumption in industrialised countries, and increased demand for material goods - particularly in nations such as China, India and Brazil - saw total resource use grow eight-fold in the 20th Century.

Decoupling of economic growth and resource consumption is occurring, the authors observe, but not quickly enough.

They describe China as a test case "because it wants to continue its rapid economic growth, but use resources more sustainably".

"The measures that China introduces to reconcile these objectives will be of crucial significance for every other developing country with similar policy intentions," they add.

Professor Swilling acknowledged that the need to use the planet's finite natural resources more efficiently was not a new concern, but added he had "huge optimism" because of one recent emerging factor.

"Prices for resources between 1900 and 2000 fell in real terms," he explained.

"From 2000, resource prices have started going up and there is a consensus among economists that this is not a blip but probably the beginning of a long-term trend.

"It is still assumed that we live in a world with declining resource prices, and rising resource prices is so new that we have not yet configured it into mentality when it comes to economies.

"Price signals are good when it comes to trying to shift policies and recognise the need for resource efficiency - I think there is a new ball game afoot."

He suggested that policymakers must ensure that developing nations reconsidered their development strategies - "especially how they configure the infrastructures" for energy, water, transportation and sanitation.

"How we design and construct those infrastructures will have a major impact on the way resources flow through economies."

Mission impossible

In the report's three scenarios, the most optimistic one would see annual per capita consumption return to 2000 levels, with 50bn tonnes being consumed each year.

But the authors acknowledge that the measures required to deliver that scenario would be so restrictive and unappealing to politicians that it is almost a non-starter.

They also admit that even this scenario is too little for some scientists, who feel it would not cut consumption and associated emissions to sustainable levels.

Responding to the report's findings, Simon Ross, chief executive of Population Matters (formerly known as the Optimum Population Trust), said continued global population growth and the continual rise in consumption was "impossible in the long-term and devastating to our environment in the short-term".

"We should seek to improve resource productivity and move to more equitable consumption levels," he told BBC News.

"However, the easiest and cheapest contribution to sustainability is promoting the existing trend to smaller families, and providing universal access to family planning to allow people to limit the number of children they have."

Professor Swilling said that rapid industrialisation offered another opportunity to improve resource efficiency - urbanisation.

"We are in the middle of what we refer to in the report as the 'second urbanisation wave', which is resulting in three billion people living in cities," he observed.

"The largest growth in urbanisation will be in developing countries; so a lot, again, is going to depend upon how we understand cities in developing nations and how we plan them, and how we accommodate large numbers of people.

"The advantage of cities is that they deliver a quality of life with fewer resources than the same quality of life outside of cities; cities are potentially key for the more efficient use of resources, and they are also melting pots for innovation."

The Unep International Resource Panel said it planned to focus future reports on ways to "improve productivity and find viable alternatives for policymakers".

The next report is expected to be published in early 2012.