So What's So Bad About Corn?

Joel Achenbach, Washington Post 23 Nov 07;
As Iowa Enjoys a Bumper Crop, Farmers Hear It From Environmentalists, Ethanol Skeptics and Other Critics

The Iowa landscape is a patchwork of corn and soybean monocultures, with about as much biodiversity as a bachelor's refrigerator.

NEVADA, Iowa -- To say that corn is king around here is to come close to demoting it. In the last couple of weeks, the farmers of this state finished harvesting an astonishing 14 million acres of corn, which is more than a third of Iowa's surface. The yield: nearly 2 1/2 billion bushels. That's about 420 billion ears of corn, or about 225 trillion kernels.

A phone call to Tim Recker, president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, found him in his combine, harvesting the last of a bumper crop.

"I got 225-bushel corn that I'm doing right now, which is phenomenal," Recker said by cellphone from a field near the town of Arlington. That's 225 bushels per acre. For a corn farmer, that's living in the tall cotton.

And yet, despite the fabulous harvest and the boom in ethanol made from corn, corn farmers often sound beleaguered and aggrieved. Corn, they say, has been getting a bad rap.

"You have to wear a flak jacket," said Bill Couser, who farms 5,000 acres here in the central Iowa town of Nevada (pronounced ne-VAY-da). "When we planted this crop, people said we were the villains of the world."

This mundane plant, once arguably dull as dirt, its name useful as an adjective ("corny") to describe something kind of lame and hillbillyish, has become improbably controversial. The gist of the criticism: So much corn, doing so many things, serving as both food and fuel, and backed by billions of dollars in government subsidies, has been bad for America and the rest of the world.

Start with food prices. Corn and its derivatives are in thousands of items sold at a typical grocery store, and corn is trading on the market at about twice the price it was just a couple of years ago. There are ripple effects everywhere. More acres in corn mean fewer in soybeans, and so soybean prices are also up. Soybean extracts are all over the grocery store, too.

Meanwhile, there are ethanol skeptics. They say production of ethanol has outpaced the infrastructure -- flex-fuel cars, for example -- for using it. A 51-cent-a-gallon federal subsidy to ethanol blenders helps keep the ethanol market commercially viable.

Environmentalists decry the impact on soil, waterways and wildlife of so much acreage planted in vast tracts of a thirsty, fertilizer-hungry plant. Tens of thousands of acres in Iowa once set aside for conservation were plowed this year for corn. The Iowa landscape is a patchwork of corn and soybean monocultures, with about as much biodiversity as a bachelor's refrigerator.

Corn, in the form of high-fructose corn syrup, is even accused of causing the national obesity epidemic.

A new documentary that skewers corn, "King Corn," has won rave reviews. And corn plays a starring, and nefarious, role in a recent book, "The Omnivore's Dilemma," in which author Michael Pollan reveals that, at the molecular level, Americans have ingested so many corn-derived substances that we are essentially walking corn chips.

Recently Jean Ziegler, the United Nations expert on the "right to food," called the diversion of food crops to biofuels a "crime against humanity." The United Nations later distanced itself from those remarks. But they were already in the wind in corn country, where farmers, up to their eyeballs in corn, are wondering what exactly they have done wrong.
The Demand for Ethanol

Here in the town of Nevada, dead center in Iowa, you'll find Couser, a farmer, feedlot owner and ethanol entrepreneur. From many miles away, you can see rising from the fields of corn stubble the silo-like fermenting tanks of the new ethanol plant, Lincolnway Energy, where Couser serves as chairman of the board. At the plant, corn mash makes glucose and ferments into alcohol.

"It's just an old still back in the woods. It's no different. It's just bigger," he says of the plant. "It's basically 200-proof corn whiskey."

A byproduct is a sawdust-like substance called dry distiller's grain with solubles -- huge piles of which are in a warehouse at the distillery, ready to be hauled off and fed to livestock somewhere in the Midwest. It's good feed, Couser said.

"And it smells good. Does this place stink?"

No: Much of the ethanol plant smells like a bakery. Yeasty.

Last year, the federal government banned a gasoline additive, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), because it was polluting groundwater. Gasoline blenders needed another "oxygenate" -- designed to reduce air pollution -- and quickly turned to ethanol. Corn prices surged. American farmers planted 93 million acres of corn, up from 78 million a year ago -- the largest crop by acreage since World War II.

As if corn needed yet another boost, the political calendar ensures that the road to the White House starts in Iowa. One candidate after another has put on a hard hat and safety glasses and admired the ethanol plant in Nevada.

Republican Fred D. Thompson, a former opponent of ethanol subsidies, came through a few weeks ago and said he'd changed his mind. Democrat Bill Richardson gave a speech recently in Des Moines about major threats to the environment, but said of ethanol, "It's so far superior to our addiction to foreign oil, you have to go full speed ahead."

Bucking the trend is Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who said recently in a speech in Ames, just down the road, that he opposes all government subsidies that distort the free market: "I've never known an American entrepreneur worthy of the name who wouldn't rather compete for sales than subsidies."

McCain, however, has never counted on getting many votes in Iowa. Because of his position on subsidies, he didn't even campaign here when he ran for president eight years ago.
'We Don't Have the Land'

Once, much of Iowa was a "pothole prairie," an open terrain pocked with wetlands. Now it is a completely managed landscape. It has few forests. You can search a long time in Iowa before finding anything that you could call the Wild.

If the nation's leaders have their way, there will be yet more corn here. The Energy Act of 2005 mandated the use of 7.5 billion gallons of ethanol a year by 2012, and that's just for starters.

"The president's goal is to have 35 billion gallons of biofuels by 2017, and we're currently at 6 billion gallons. That would mean a huge increase in land for corn," says Jerry Schnoor, a University of Iowa professor of civil and environmental engineering. "The environmental constraints are just too great. It's too much nutrients, too much soil loss, too much pesticides. We don't have the land."

Ethanol advocates vow that the next generation of technology will make ethanol more attractive environmentally. Cellulosic ethanol could be made from cornstalks or, better yet, from perennial crops such as switchgrass. But that's the future. Today, corn, and specifically corn kernels -- little nuggets of starch -- are the sole source of commercial ethanol.

"The thing about ethanol: It's not a perfect solution for our energy, but it's a pretty good one. You don't throw out the good in search of the perfect," said Julius Schaaf, who farms 4,000 acres in Randolph, Iowa, and is chairman of the Iowa Corn Promotion Board.
Both Food and Fuel

Driving around Nevada in the truck he calls Bob -- for "big ol' beast" -- Couser grew increasingly combative. He groused about "tree huggers." His way of farming is sustainable, he says. On his feedlot, he uses an innovative system of waste disposal that state officials have praised. He owns lake property and says, "I want to make sure that when I go out in my water scooter, that that water's clean."

As for the professors who criticize industrial agriculture, Couser said, "Have they come out and taken a handful of dirt and seen how black it is?"

It is, indeed, as dark as spent coffee grounds -- espresso roast.

Couser grabbed an ear of corn (planted from Monsanto No. 6163 seed, which he said gave the corn good "standability" even in a stiff autumn wind), shucked it, broke off some kernels and popped them into his mouth like candy.

He made a mental calculation.

"It's about 16 percent moisture," he said. Dry enough to harvest. "It's hard to believe you can put that in your tank, isn't it?"

It's food; it's fuel; it's in every product imaginable. It's the plant that ate Iowa.

Couser said he knows the precise geographical center of the state. He drove up a road, past his house, past his feedlot, took a left through more corn and soybean stubble, and pulled his truck onto the soggy edge of a humble and nondescript patch of open field, the pinpoint center of the heart of the Corn Belt:

A hayfield.

So there's still one of those left.


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New programme to spread message of recycling among preschool children

Channel NewsAsia 24 Nov 07

SINGAPORE : This year's Recycling Day saw the launch of a programme for the future generation.

Environment Minister Dr Yaacob Ibrahim has announced a new programme for preschool children to be rolled out next year.

It will help spread the message of the 3 Rs of recycling - Reduce, Reuse and Recycle

The programme will benefit 258 PAP Community Foundation (PCF) kindergartens and ten childcare centres under the Presbyterian Community Services.

A pilot project on recycling earlier this year at 2 PCF kindergartens was well received by both teachers and students.

Recycling Day is organised by the National Environment Agency, which wants to involve the people, public and private sector in creating awareness for recycling. - CNA/ch


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Singapore: A pot threatening to boil over

Seah Chiang Nee, The Star 24 Nov 07;

Cracks are already appearing between Singaporeans and the new settlers who have come as permanent residents, not just between different ethnic groups, but also within races.

ILL feeling towards foreigners is beginning to surface in this most unlikely of places – cosmopolitan Singapore – attributed to the record influx of immigrants.

By tradition, Singaporeans with their own migrant history have been open about foreigners from east or west, which has led to a recent mass arrival of settlers and visitors.

More than a million have arrived, mostly during the past decade, and although they have brightened the economy, they are also starting to incur a social cost as well as increasingly sparking friction with locals.

Despite land reclamation, Singapore remains a small city, one of the densest in the world. The pressure is testing the tolerance level of Singaporeans, who are struggling to cope with a widening income gap and rising prices.

Already one third of the 4.68 million people here are foreigners, not to mention the nine million tourists who arrive annually.

It has prompted warnings from leading figures, the latest from Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong.

According to him, cracks are already appearing between Singaporeans and the new settlers who have come as permanent residents “not just between different ethnic groups, but also within races.”

People are showing less trust towards one another. Goh said “the new residents did not mix easily with Singaporeans” and the latter, in turn, “tended to leave the new-comers alone.”

Earlier, retired and respected civil servant Ngiam Tong Dow said if he had his way, Singapore would think twice before pushing for a 6.5 million population.

Questioning the rationale, Ngiam said in an interview published in the governing party newsletter that Singapore does not need numbers but talent.

The 70-year-old said: “If we do it wrongly, it will change our economic and social system.”

He stressed the need to appeal to people’s hearts. “Otherwise, Singapore will become just a six-star hotel where guests stay in good times and flee when times are bad. We will never become a nation,” he said.

Singapore’s mainly middle class, stressed by a widening wealth divide, is deeply worried about the large inflow.

“Foreigners are viewed as threats to locals’ livelihoods, they are viewed with suspicion and envy,” a surfer posted.

A pivotal part of immigration is the successful luring of wealthy foreigners to settle here. It is doing wonders for the economy, but is also aggravating inflation and widening the income divide.

If Singapore were not careful, it could split into two or three parts, warns Foreign Minister George Yeo.

“And that third Singapore is the big chunk of people squeezed in the centre, between the poor and the rich,” he said.

“This group is the most vulnerable. If they feel the high life is out of their reach, frustration can set in. And being more mobile than the lower-end group, they can be tempted to vote with their suitcases. That is an option the other group doesn’t have.”

These warnings show growing government awareness that the speed to expand the population, if not the strategy itself, may threaten social harmony.

Several incidents between foreigners and locals have stirred emotions, reflecting the current sensitivities.

These are minor everyday happenings in a crowded city that would have gained little attention if they had involved only locals, but were blown up into hot issues because foreigners were involved.

In the latest case, Singaporean Michelle Quek said a Caucasian and his wife or girlfriend attacked her and her friend after her schoolbag “accidentally hit the woman”.

She said a quarrel ensued, which resulted in the Westerner holding up her friend by the arms, lifting her off the floor and dropping her onto the floor. She herself was punched on the nose.

A couple of angry bystanders confronted the Westerner and stopped him from leaving, nearly causing more mayhem.

Singaporeans were also enraged when three young British tourists mocked an elderly rickshaw rider because he couldn’t pedal fast enough for them, then posted a video of the struggling old man on You-Tube.

Titled “The Slowest Taxi in SE Asia” it showed the trio squeezing into the small rickshaw, poking fun at the 76-year-old rider throughout the 10-minute trip.

One remarked, “God, he’s in fifth gear” and every one laughed. They ran off without paying.

Scores of Singaporeans bombarded the visitors, expressing what they would like to do to them.

“Don’t come back to Singapore,” wrote one. “We will be waiting for you.”

Westerners are, of course, not the only people who are affected. In fact the bigger issue is the tens of thousands who have flocked here from China and India.

Last year a record 70,000 foreigners were admitted; this year the figure is set to be higher.

Verbal insults have become a frequent phenomenon on the Internet between Singaporeans and some of the better-educated permanent residents.

So far there have been no major incidents but the underlying resentment has given rise to fears that a small incident may one day flare up into big trouble.

Some aliens find it difficult to find accommodation; others get a cool reception from office colleagues.

The government and community representatives have organised citizenship ceremonies and social gatherings to make the newcomers feel welcome. Leaders often extol the role of foreign talent in nation building.

Respected blogger redbean wrote of a growing potential for xenophobic tension.

“For those who have to face the foreigners daily in all his living activities, when every citizen has to fight for his space and the air he breathes, tension is likely to build up and break out.”


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Best of our wild blogs: 24 Nov 07

Buy Nothing Day
shopping is like alcholism! with a poll, on the leafmonkey blog also about the related US Black Friday.

Crabby Babies!
Signs of breeding on the johora singaporensis blog

You are what you eat
so what are you? on the new scientist environment blog

Impact of Business as Usual Shipping
even without oil spills shipping has ecological impact on the world watch institute


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New York shoppers beat economic blues at 'Black Friday' sales

AFP 24 Nov 07

NEW YORK (AFP) — Shoppers in New York brushed off some gloomy economic forecasts and packed into stores Friday after the Thanksgiving Day holiday, kicking off one of the busiest US shopping periods of the year.

While economists have suggested this year's holiday season will likely see only a small increase in takings over last year due to weak consumer confidence, there was little sign of depressed sales on New York's streets.

"I was up at two-thirty this morning to shop," said Kim Melise, 22, a New Yorker who was struggling to get into Bloomingdale's department store with his arms already weighed down by bags of shopping.

Melise was one of those taking advantage of the special offers, despite the threat of a looming recession and a crunch in the housing and credit markets.

While some sales staff reported less of a crush than last year, most said they had not noticed reduced takings at the sales registers, with many reporting increased demand from European buyers attracted by the weak dollar.

"We arrived yesterday, did all our shopping for Christmas and will be back home on Monday," said Rachel Brown, a 33-year-old from Wales shopping with a friend and struggling with a load of bargains.

Les White, 51, from London, left one of the world's other great shopping capitals to visit the Big Apple with his wife.

"We shopped as much as we could," said White, waiting in a line of 50 people wanting to pick up a reduced-price iPod at the Apple Store on Fifth Avenue, which was already packed at 11:00 am.

Others came from nearby. Lisa left toy store FAO Schwartz clutching five bags. As in previous years, she arrived early in Manhattan from Long Island with her husband and two daughters to do their Christmas shopping.

The Friday after the Thanksgiving Day public holiday traditionally kicks off one of the busiest shopping periods of the year.

It is known as "Black Friday," supposedly because of the bad traffic around the holiday period and because the day's takings signal the beginning of a period in which stores hope to go into credit -- or into the black.

Up to 133 million shoppers were expected to hit US stores over the long weekend, with the National Retail Federation projecting a four percent rise in holiday spending, while Ernst & Young suggested growth of 4.5 percent.

"Retailers know that customers are looking for good values this holiday season and many will be offering prices and promotions that are too good to pass up," said National Retail Federation President Tracy Mullin.

But other sales staff were more cautious. A saleswoman from men's clothes store Brooks Brothers on Fifth Avenue said she had noticed fewer shoppers.

Richard Zeltmer, a salesman at Park Avenue liquor store Sherry Lehman said that while he had not noticed customers spending more than usual, he had seen a larger than usual number of Europeans.

The rush for the stores was also good news for charities such as the Salvation Army, which had volunteers Friday outside many of the major stores.

"It is a good day for us", said one of the volunteers in front of homeware store Crate and Barrel on Madison Avenue.

But enthusiasm for Friday's spending orgy was not universal. Reverend Billy, a protestant New York pastor from the "Church of Stop Shopping" was promoting a "buy nothing day."

"Consumerism is overwhelming our lives," he said.


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24 Nov is Buy Nothing Day


End of the High Street hunter-gatherer?
By Julian Joyce, BBC News 23 Nov 07;

"Shopping as sport" phenomenon has helped drive a wave of consumerism unprecedented in history. Never before has the world spent so much, consumed so much, and thrown so much away.

Buy Nothing Day - an annual moratorium on shopping - has made little impression over the years. But as campaigners prepare for this year's day of inaction on Saturday, they sense the tide is starting to turn.

The mere thought is almost enough to bring Maryann Poole out in a cold sweat - a day dedicated to not shopping.

"I genuinely enjoy shopping. I admire things. I like looking at the difference between products. I like going into shops and choosing things. Having a good long talk with the shop assistant - so long as they know their stuff. And then getting home and taking whatever it is out of the nice packaging," says Maryann from west London.

It's "a lot to do with who I am... The whole process gives me real pleasure."

Maryann is a retailer's dream. But she is also the worst nightmare of the Buy Nothing Day campaign, dedicated as it is to curbing consumerism.

A freelance journalist, Maryann is a walking embodiment of the fact that huge numbers of people have come to enjoy shopping for its own sake. They get a thrill not for the difference that the products can make to their lives - but out of the process itself.

This "shopping as sport" phenomenon has, some say, helped to drive a wave of consumerism unprecedented in history. Never before has the world spent so much, consumed so much, and thrown so much away.

And with the biggest shopping bonanza of the all, Christmas, just a month off, the shops will be thronging with people.

Yet campaigners behind Buy Nothing Day say its time may have come. Some thinkers are pointing to growing trends towards environmental awareness and old-fashioned thrift. These, they predict, foreshadow the end of consumerism as a national obsession.

Greedy, wasteful?

Among the campaign's most enthusiastic supporters is Pat Thomas, editor of the Ecologist magazine.

"There is no getting away from the fact that we now live in a world of diminishing resources and increasing waste," says Ms Thomas. "The answer is always: consume less."

Yet labels such as "greedy" and "wasteful" which anti-shoppers brandish at spendthrifts are increasingly seen as over-simplistic. Instead, scientific methods are shedding light on the stimuli behind the "shopping thrill". And once we understand that, say scientists, we might be able to harness that knowledge to lead a wiser and less wasteful lifestyle.

Two months ago researcher Dr David Lewis strapped video glasses to his subjects, wired them up to machines that measured their brain patterns, heart rate and skin moisture levels and let them loose in a London store in search of bargains.

He and his team discovered that when his shoppers found a desirable product at a low price, their bodies exhibited real physical signs.

"Chemicals that create feelings of well-being - like serotonin and adrenalin - were being released into the brain," he says. "The brainwaves changed and rising skin moisture levels indicated that people were getting aroused. Their heartbeats also speeded up. Fundamentally what this proved to us was that shopping is above all an 'emotional' process."

He is careful to make a distinction between "doing the shopping" - buying necessities like bin-bags and toilet paper - and "going shopping", which he describes as an emotional adventure.

"When we go shopping, we shop according to our emotional state," says Dr Lewis, of The Mind Lab consultancy. "We'll buy things that make us feel good - and it is only after that we construct a narrative to justify our choices.

"In a way, our conscious rationality is like a company's PR department, explaining why certain actions have been taken after the event."

National pastime

The good news for environmentalists is that scientists now believe they can use this knowledge to transform our consumption patterns - even to the extent of making non-consumption "sexy".

Economist Andrew Oswald from Warwick University has identified a consumer cycle, which he says is moving from strong materialism to a concern for the environment, and wider issues around wellbeing.

"We know that in the industrialised countries there has been no rise in general levels of happiness - as measured in surveys on job satisfaction and figures on mental health - since about 1975," says Mr Oswald.

People in the developed West are beginning to realise that more material goods does not equal more happiness, he says.

"Politicians like Conservative leader David Cameron in the UK and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in California have caught on to this trend. The language is now more about happiness and well-being - and there's much less concentration on the language of pure economic growth."

It's a controversial theory, and one that's fiercely contested by those with the most to lose - shopkeepers.

"I don't believe this for a moment," says Richard Dodd from the British Retail Consortium. "Our figures show a steady year-on-year growth in consumer spending. Those people [Cameron and Schwarzenegger] are in the privileged position of being able to spend less. Poorer people don't have those choices.

"I think the economy will continue to grow as it has always grown. Aspiring for ourselves and for our children to have a better quality of life is what we have always striven for. That won't change."

But those who believe consumerism is one the wane remain optimistic.

"I predict that it will no longer be seen as smart to have too much bling. And because we buy things on an unconscious level we will invent a narrative to explain our thrift," says Dr Lewis. "It will become just as satisfactory to buy something green - or not to consume at all."

If this is true, then the anti-consumers might be pushing at an open door. And Buy Nothing Day might be a sign of bigger things to come.

Links

Buy Nothing Day website

Buy Nothing Day is like alcholism! with a poll, on the leafmonkey blog


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Christmas trees going 'green' in Oregon

Sarah Skidmore, Associated Press Yahoo News 24 Nov 07;

Picking a Christmas tree is typically a matter of taste. Is the shape right? Is it too tall? Too short?

Now a handful of growers in the top Christmas tree producing state of Oregon want people to consider another factor — how "green" a tree is. They've created a system to help consumers identify trees grown under certain environmental standards.

"Consumers like to do the right thing," said Joe Sharp, managing partner of Yule Tree Farms and co-founder of the Coalition of Environmentally Conscious Growers. "We are just helping with education."

This is the first year the coalition's program will be seen in the market. More than 200,000 tags will hang on trees, indicating the trees were farmed by the coalition's standards.

To pass muster, a farm must be inspected to ensure that it meets certain standards for managing wetlands, nutrients and pests. Water and soil conservation measures are reviewed, and biodiversity and worker safety are also considered.

The trees are not organically grown, but the coalition says the measures help mitigate some of the environmental dangers of Christmas tree farming, such as excessive use of pesticides and contribution to erosion.

"Now when consumers buy a tree, they can be sure that the tree was grown with the best intentions for the environment in mind," Sharp said.

Only a fraction of the trees on corner lots and at garden centers will bear the tag, however. More than a dozen other tree growers are on a waiting list to be inspected and join the three large growers that are part of the group.

The coalition is hoping to take the tag system nationwide, providing an edge in the multimillion-dollar business.

Nearly 29 million households bought a fresh Christmas tree in 2006, according to the National Christmas Tree Association. Oregon is the top producer in the country.


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Our chicken comes from Brazil?

Scouring the world for food, so prices stay stable
Lee Siew Hua, Straits Times 24 Nov 07;

How does Singapore scour the world for food? How does the transfer of farming techniques by Singapore, a non-agricultural country, help in its quest for food?

And why is food a political hot potato everywhere?

MADAM Halimah Yacob's mother cooked chapati for her family when a global rice shortage in the 1960s prompted her to switch from rice to the wheat-based Indian flat bread.

Those were the days when the quixotic Eat More Wheat campaign appeared in 1967. However, Singaporeans pined for rice.

Today, the MP for Jurong GRC, who is a mother of five, still believes alternative food choices can mitigate rising food prices.

However, she acknowledges that there are limits to substitution, saying it is more easily achieved when prices go up selectively, instead of across the board.

The Agri-food and Veterinary Authority (AVA), which sees to it that Singapore enjoys a resilient and safe food supply, also hopes that Singaporeans will switch more easily, from chilled to cheaper frozen pork, for example.

But its greater focus is on diversifying food supplies, which will keep prices more stable if disruptions occur.

Some new sources are unusual. The AVA recently approved the import of frozen fish and oysters from Namibia, an African country with a long Atlantic coast.

After the avian flu squeezed supplies of the well-loved egg, AVA and traders looked farther afield.

Now, fragile eggs make the journey from the US and Japan to our dining tables.

How does Singapore scour the world for food? How does the transfer of farming techniques by Singapore, a non-agricultural country, help in its quest for food?

And why is food a political hot potato everywhere?

Insight investigates.

Our chicken comes from Brazil?
The story of S'pore's search for new food sources
Straits Times 24 Nov 07;

Food prices are rising, and the drive to diversify Singapore's food supply is heating up. Lee Siew Hua tracks the national quest for enough food at stable prices - a theme of political importance anywhere
ALERT: Poultry scarcity.

But some determined Singaporeans heard about Perak's disease-free duck farms, and raced off on an overnight trip to hunt down new supplies to ease the shortage.

Success! That search team of about 30 traders and officials returned home delighted with a new poultry source - a pocket-sized but prized zone of safe birds.

Meat merchant Jack Koh, president of the Meat Traders Association, recalls the high purpose of that lightning mission in the sombre avian-flu days of December 2004.

'The action was very swift,' says Mr Koh. 'The Malaysians also pointed us to more duck farms in the south.

'The disruption was not so bad after that.'

That trip was made possible by the nation's official pantry, the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority or AVA. Set up in 2000, the busy, fleet-footed agency sees to it that Singapore enjoys a resilient supply of safe food.

Today, there is a heightened push by the authorities to diversify food supplies and keep prices stable, also deemed a wise political move.

So Singapore's traders, supermarkets and the AVA scour continents for non-traditional sources of food for the national table.

It is a fascinating basket.

A sampling reveals: Distant Brazil supplies 50 per cent of the frozen chicken parts eaten here.

NTUC FairPrice is eyeing Namibian seafood. It has aisles devoted to Korean and Australian edibles, and its globetrotting team of 30 buyers has filled shelves with Hungarian frozen vegetables and Chilean wine.

Last month, importer Kai Young Huat added American white eggs to its product line that includes contemporary liquid eggs and traditional salted eggs.

Diversifying is prudent. Singapore is greatly dependent on outsiders, importing 90 per cent of what we eat. And the serial crises of Sars and avian flu, plus the gathering forces of climate change, dramatise how speedily food stocks can be threatened.

'We don't put all our eggs in one basket,' says Mr Gan Yee Chin, deputy chairman of the Han's chain of cafes and bakeries. 'We look for new suppliers.'

If one fails, there must be alternative suppliers.

The watchfulness over food supplies and prices is widespread and historical.

Bread riots

FOOD has turned the tables on governments. The poor in France rioted over the price of bread in 1789, creating one more inexorable spark for the French Revolution.

High inflation was one trigger for the 1989 Tiananmen protests in China.

Though these are extreme episodes, no government can stay cavalier about food costs.

Citizens expect their leaders to provide adequate food at affordable prices, says Singapore Management University law professor Eugene Tan. 'Otherwise, it strikes at the very heart of the government's legitimacy.'

He adds: 'We are not talking about luxury items or Internet access, but daily sustenance.''

This year, the scale is now global and high food costs stir discontent in industrialised and poor countries alike.

In Italy, consumer groups called for a symbolic pasta strike, asking shoppers not to buy the beloved staple for a day. Americans are aghast when they see supermarket price labels, a reaction called 'sticker shock'. Grocery prices in the US are anticipated to top 7.5 per cent this year - the highest annual hike since 1980.

In poorer places, unrest has been reported in Yemen, Mexico, China and elsewhere.

In Singapore, Madam Halimah Yacob, MP for Jurong GRC, says: 'Costs are biting into the pocket of the average Singaporean household.'

She raised the issue of food costs in Parliament last Monday and continues to receive feedback, hearing from one housewife that onions are priced as high as $11 for a big bag, compared to $6 not too long ago.

Her concern is for lower-income families, who spend almost one-third of their income on food - 29.6 per cent. In contrast, middle-income families spend 24.1 per cent while the rich set aside 17 per cent.

The prospect of two Singapores is ever-present. 'There is growth and job creation in Singapore,'' Madam Halimah observes. 'But we have to make sure there is much more even distribution of growth.''

The drive to uncover diverse supplies far and near occurs amid this lingering unsettledness over food expenses and income inequity.

Now stir in a perfect global storm of harvest-busting bad weather, oil price surges, big demand for biofuels, the hungry quest of booming China and India for more food. The result is supply disruptions, and in turn food bills escalate.

Food vulnerability

IN THIS climate, Trade and Industry Minister Lim Hng Kiang stood up in Parliament this month to highlight a line of action:

'Diversifying our food sources is one way we can reduce our vulnerability to such supply disruptions and maintain more stable food supplies.

'AVA will continue to step up efforts to this end.''

Besides diversifying, the AVA boosts food stocks by selling Singapore as a food trading hub. This has attractive 'spin-offs', says AVA spokesman Goh Shih Yong, since it brings in more food.

The nation also transfers farm technology to pull in food supplies. It is this idea of non-agricultural Singapore showing farmers how to farm better that is a delicious irony - plus economically and politically logical, as it turns out.

Dr Patrick Loh, an AVA agri-business adviser, explains: 'Singapore's strength is its trained talent. Although we don't have a big playing field, we know how to harness the vast hinterland surrounding us.''

Beginning in 2001, he has been involved in the AVA's technology transfer to land-rich Riau province in Indonesia.

One new aspect is the use of 'post-harvest' methods, which include a reliance on cool packing houses at the Indonesian source, quick shipment of perhaps 20 hours in chiller-fitted boats - and refrigerated trucks waiting in Singapore to rush the greens to supermarkets.

Both sides win. Singapore helps scale up the once-kampung-style farms to commercial magnitude.

The farms make money by selling safe, quality leafy vegetables - such as bai cai and cai xin - to discerning Singaporeans, and also to Jakarta.

NTUC FairPrice retails some Riau produce under its ValueFresh label.

Dr Loh, also a SIM University bio-entrepreneurship professor and a UK-trained scientist who says he has cloned bananas for his Malaysian plantation, declares himself 'passionate' about stocking Singapore's kitchens.

'We need strategic collaborations to keep prices down, and ensure a resilient food supply,' he says.

Meanwhile, AVA's story of diversification is picked up relentlessly all over Singapore by traders, restaurants and supermarkets.

Mr Koh, the meat trader, visited Canada to source for frozen pork last year. Soon, he and fellow traders will visit East Malaysia and a Philippine island free of foot-and-mouth disease for pork supplies.

These new places will supplement Singapore's pork imports from Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, China and some European countries.

Australia's shifting fortunes as our chilled-pork supplier is a cautionary tale.

After nipah virus struck Malaysian pig farms in 1999, he recalls, Australian farms were sourced. Sales then climbed from near-zero to $120 million a year.

'But Australian prices are now high because drought has affected crops used as feed,' he says. Feed accounts for 60 per cent of production costs.

The Australian dollar has also appreciated against the Singapore currency, further skewing prices. Australian farmers are 'committed' and have tried to absorb costs for a year, he says, but some are now leaving the business.

At home, the food trade faces high-priced rents, utilities and logistics.

Amid this wave of price increases, the food industry has one mantra: diversify, diversify, diversify.

For NTUC FairPrice, it signs up for AVA's overseas missions and plans its own buying trips.

More choices

TO DIVERSIFY is a natural route for the 220-outlet chain, and the strategy has intensified in the last 10 to 15 years.

It is born of necessity, and customers love choices.

Managing director Seah Kian Peng says FairPrice has a social role to deliver value for money, and keep prices low.

In 1973, the labour movement started the cooperative in the tense days of roaring inflation amid a global oil crisis. The first outlet, in Toa Payoh, was named NTUC Welcome.

Mr Seah says: 'We have to be convinced that price increases are justified by suppliers. We try to push price increases as late as possible.'

Today, Singapore's food foray are opportunity-filled, but the limits are also big.

Most potentially disruptive factors - disease or terrorism - are outside the nation's control. Singapore can only manage risks, for instance, with emergency plans and supply options in stable lands.

Still, bright spots exist. A study last year on the United Kingdom's food security is not unduly pessimistic about shortages: 'The ability of competitive well-functioning markets, domestically and internationally, to adapt to shocks should not be understated.'

And Singapore is, so far, nimble in skirting food crises.

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Waging war against infectious diseases

Top scientist says S'pore can't be free of these diseases unless region does its part
Shobana Kesava, Straits Times 24 Nov 07;

INFECTIOUS disease expert Duane Gubler, 68, puts himself in the front line in the war he wages.

He has been infected at least thrice with dengue, thrice with malaria and even deliberately infected himself with the filiarisis worm which causes elephantiasis - to better understand the disease.

He caught the two mosquito-borne diseases while trying to lure mosquitoes into biting monkeys, and while out in the field.

The former director of the vector-borne infectious diseases division at the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention is now here to take research in these areas to the next level.

'The world is about 30 years behind in infectious diseases research because we thought we conquered them in the 1960s...Resources were moved into the war on other diseases like cancer.'

Ironically, scientists have discovered that certain cancers such as stomach cancer are, in fact, caused by the infectious diseases that have been neglected for decades.

Professor Gubler runs the Asia-Pacific Institute of Tropical Medicine and Infectious Diseases in Hawaii.

He is, from this month, concurrently heading the signature research programme in emerging infectious diseases at the Duke-National University of Singapore Graduate Medical School (Duke-NUS).

His plans for Singapore are ambitious - to set up the 'world's best laboratory for research and reference on Asian infectious diseases'.

Tens of millions will go into the laboratory, and with government support, money is not an issue, he said.

Good research will rope in funding from groups like the National Institutes of Health in the US and the Gates Foundation, he said.

The Government has declared its commitment to a concerted effort to fight infectious diseases. It will work with regional countries.

Duke-NUS will have about 70 investigators looking at areas such as metabolic disease, and will train students from the region too.

Field laboratories will also be set up in Asian countries, such as China and Vietnam, where there are emerging infectious diseases.

A key goal will be to develop an early warning disease detection system across Asia.

Singapore cannot be free of infectious disease, Prof Gubler noted, unless the region does its part.

While it is not known what the next epidemic will be, he is almost certain it will be a 'zoonotic' - a disease transmitted from animal to man - as was the case with severe acute respiratory syndrome, which was traced to civet cats.

Prof Gubler plans to spend most of his time in Singapore from next September, until the lab runs smoothly.

He said: 'Not only Asia needs it but the world needs it.'

Going after cures
CALL him Indiana Jones in a white laboratory coat.
Shobana Kesava, Straits Times 24 Nov 07;

In seeking the holy grail of infectious disease cures, Professor Duane Gubler has been caught in an ugly mob.

That was in Kolkata, India in 1969, on his first overseas posting after joining Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore in 1965 to conduct infectious disease research.

He also remembers nearly getting shot up by bandits on a lonely rural road in India, getting washed down a flooded river in a dugout canoe in Central Sulawesi, and investigating Agent Orange in the delta of South Vietnam in 1972 during the ongoing Vietnam war then.

On a more mundane note, during a seven-year stint at the University of Hawaii School of Medicine from 1971, he conducted research for the National Institutes of Health and headed the US Naval Medical Research unit's virology department in Indonesia.

From 1980 till he moved to the Asia-Pacific Institute of Tropical Medicine in Hawaii in 2004, he was with the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, and National Centre for Infectious Diseases, where he became renowned for his expertise in vector-borne infectious diseases, in particular dengue.

His prolific peer-reviewed articles make him highly sought after. In Singapore, he consults for the Novartis Institute of Tropical Diseases and the Environmental Health Institute.


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Urgent need to work together to fight new and old bugs

Paul Tambyah, Straits Times 24 Nov 07;

The economic impact of these emerging infections was considerable and the impact of the next will be greater. Singapore, one of the world's most globalised cities, is extremely vulnerable to new emerging pathogens.

THERE has been a lot of interest in infectious diseases in the past few weeks. Academic circles are abuzz with the news of an unprecedented $25 million grant call for research in the field, that closes this month.

Why is Singapore investing so much in infectious diseases when the major killers in Singapore for the past 50 years have been cancer and heart disease?

On a personal note, people have often asked me: 'Why did you go into infectious diseases?'

When I was a young doctor in training, one of my teachers encouraged me to take up a career in cardiology. 'Too few diagnoses,' I replied with youthful thoughtlessness. His quick retort: 'Then you should do infectious diseases, there are thousands of diagnoses there!'

On the advice of one of Singapore's most respected clinicians, Dr John Tambyah, a consultant endocrinologist who happens to be my father, I took off to the United States for postgraduate training in infectious diseases in 1993, as the local training programmes were just getting established.

For the next six years, I was immersed in the world of bugs and bug doctors. I learnt some of the science of infectious diseases, from the molecular characteristics of antibiotic resistant bacteria to the mathematical models that go into predicting antibiotic effectiveness.

I learnt the core epidemiologic skills to identify new clinical syndromes caused by emerging pathogens, and the social and clinical challenges of helping HIV/Aids patients at the start of the treatment era.

Having been back in Singapore for nearly a decade, it is exciting to see the infectious diseases field turn from a Cinderella speciality to a prestigious research arena with fierce competition among top scientists for research dollars.

What happened? The often misquoted US Surgeon-General William Stewart is alleged to have said in the late 1960s that we could 'close the book on infectious diseases'. However, as we all know, recent history changed all that.

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) epidemic was a wake-up call. It reminded all that we live in a globally interlinked world, that we ignore the interaction between humans and the other inhabitants of this planet at our peril and that collaboration and science can help control the plagues of today and tomorrow.

First, the Nipah virus which appeared in 1999, then Sars and later, the spectre of pandemic influenza, have pushed emerging infectious diseases to the front pages.

Some have already begun to forget the 'ghost town' eeriness of Orchard Road in April 2003.

The economic impact of these emerging infections was considerable and the impact of the next will be greater. Singapore, one of the world's most globalised cities, is extremely vulnerable to new emerging pathogens.

With global changes in agriculture, industry and population movements all around us and the effects of global climate change, the scene is set for new viruses or bacteria to appear.

Singapore can ill afford to be unprepared for the next pathogen and steps have been taken with the Regional Emerging Diseases Intervention Centre (Redi), the emerging infectious diseases research programmes at the universities, Ministry of Health, and the Communicable Disease Centre, Tan Tock Seng Hospital (CDC-TTSH) to try to prevent that from happening.

On a more mundane level, infectious diseases account for a disproportionate share of the complications of medical care and modern medical conditions. Foremost, are hospital-acquired infections and the complications from diabetes.

The former is an unpleasant reality worldwide and a recognised complication of modern medical care. Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step to adequately dealing with it.

Globally, hospitals are understaffed and overcrowded with patients needing invasive devices such as drips and tubes for the latest wonder drugs and therapies.

These, unfortunately, also allow germs that live on our skin and mucous surfaces to get into the weakened bodies of these patients. While medical advances have changed the face of many diseases including cancer, these new therapies can carry with them the cost of new and more resistant infections.

Today's patients are more and more vulnerable to these infections which are often multi-resistant as they are also receiving more antibiotics, and this is a major challenge in our hospitals worldwide.

Again, the first steps have been taken by research consortia from across the public hospitals and universities here to begin to address this pressing problem.

The 'antibiotic pipeline' seems to have dried up and there are now fewer new antibiotics. These bacteria seem to be one step ahead of us.

The old strategy of depending on the pharmaceutical industry may not work any more as some of the firms appear to be more focused on lifestyle drugs.

There is an urgent need for basic scientists to collaborate with clinicians to develop novel targets for antibiotic therapies and to work together to understand how to control these often deadly infections.

The newly formed Consortium on Antimicrobial Resistance is one such collaboration that brings together clinicians, public health specialists and basic scientists from four key agencies, the National University of Singapore (NUS), the National Healthcare Group, SingHealth and the Institute of Molecular and Cell Biology, to try and outfox the wily bacteria.

Singapore has one of the world's highest rates of diabetes. Foot infections in diabetic patients result in 700 amputations a year. Singapore has the opportunity to take a regional leadership role in this growing global problem.

Almost every one of us has a relative or friend with diabetes and this is clearly a fertile field for research that can benefit Singapore and beyond. This is a major public health crisis and one that demands a multi-disciplinary approach.

At the National University Hospital (NUH), the multi-disciplinary team - comprising an endocrinologist, an orthopaedic surgeon, a podiatrist, specialist nurse and microvascular reconstructive surgeon, and an infectious disease specialist - works to reduce the morbidity and mortality rates of patients with diabetic foot problems.

Finally, mention infectious diseases and everyone thinks of dengue, malaria, tuberculosis and typhoid. These are the 'classic infectious diseases' of old in which Singapore has a strong track record in clinical and basic science research.

Singapore has a dengue consortium probably among the world's largest collection of dengue researchers, in an innovative collaboration between industry, hospital-based clinicians and basic scientists from universities and research institutes here.

The newly formed Singapore malaria network, comprising members from the NUS, Nanyang Technological University and the Singapore Immunology Network, is another exceptional collaborative effort between scientists and engineers looking at new ways to diagnose and treat one of the world's deadliest infections, albeit a distant memory for most Singaporeans.

Tuberculosis is another area where Singapore has a long and distinguished history in research. The early UK Medical Research Council led trials conducted in Singapore General Hospital and Tan Tock Seng Hospital in the 1960s and 1970s which helped establish the basis for regimes used to treat tuberculosis worldwide today.

With the advent of extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (or XDR-TB), scientists and clinical researchers are facing new challenges from this very old disease.

The modern equivalent of the old infectious diseases which were 'hidden away' in sanatoria and lazarettos is HIV/Aids. We have excellent HIV/Aids clinical researchers at CDC-TTSH and the other hospitals but we need more basic scientists to step up to the challenge of HIV research.

This is a growing problem here and in the region. HIV/Aids is a microcosm of the challenges facing infectious disease researchers.

While there has been much progress since the identification of the virus which came to Singapore within a few years after the initial US reports, there are huge scientific questions yet to be answered in terms of the virus and its biology.

There are also major health services research questions as we try to deliver the therapeutic advances made elsewhere to our fellow Singaporeans, and even more challenging humanitarian questions as we examine our own personal prejudices, fears, anxieties and hopes.

The writer is Associate Professor, Department of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, NUS, and Head, Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, NUH


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Sharing H5N1 Viruses: "What's in it for us?"

Sharing H5N1 Viruses to Stop a Global Influenza Pandemic
The Poultry Site 23 Nov 07

As Asian countries have grown anxious about H5N1, and witnessed up to 100% fatality rates in infected chickens and up to 70% mortality rates in infected humans, some developing countries have challenged the traditional global influenza strategy by asking, “What's in it for us? We share virus samples, and pharmaceutical companies make vaccines from them that primarily benefit rich countries. Without better access to vaccine, why should we share virus samples?”

GLOBE - Although the threat of pandemic influenza, spawned by continuing avian influenza A (H5N1) epidemics, has dropped off the front pages, concern among experts continues to grow, writes Laurie Garrett and David P. Fidler in PLoSmediceine.

At the end of 2005, only 17 countries had H5N1 outbreaks in chickens, ducks, or humans. As of September 2007, the virus has circulated in 60 countries, mutations have been reported (for example, in a patient in Turkey and another in Thailand, and virologists and public health officials nervously watch clusters of probable human-to-human spread of the virus, such as in Thailand in 2004 and Indonesia in 2006. For reasons not fully understood, most human cases and clusters of probable human-to-human transmission of H5N1 since January 2006 have occurred in Indonesia.

Recent studies have begun to characterize the mutations in H5N1 that may be a prerequisite for efficient human-to-human transmission. The world needs to monitor each new influenza virus in order to check for such mutations, which could transform H5N1 into a dangerous pathogen easily spread between people. How devastating might such a transformation be? In an age of globalization and commercial air travel, estimating how great a toll a lethal human-to-human influenza virus could inflict is difficult. Estimates of deaths from the last great bird-to-human flu pandemic of 1918 range from 50 to 100 million, which provides a glimpse of the global damage that could be caused by a pandemic influenza accelerated by 21st century globalization.

Indonesia's Refusal to Share Viruses


In light of the importance of virus monitoring for pandemic influenza preparedness and response, Indonesia's refusal to share samples of H5N1 virus with the World Health Organization (WHO) for most of 2007 is distressing and potentially dangerous for global public health. Negotiations with Indonesia to resume rapid and open virus sharing have proved difficult, with Indonesia repeatedly refusing to share unless significant changes were made to allow it greater access to vaccine derived from samples it shared with WHO.

Even though Indonesia resumed some virus sharing with WHO in the second week of September 2007, the fundamental dispute is not resolved. Indonesia's willingness to continue virus sharing may depend on the outcome of intergovernmental negotiations in Geneva in November 2007. At present, prospects for overcoming the central disagreements do not appear good. We would like to suggest a way to break the root causes of the impasse, by taking a novel strategic approach to pandemic control and bringing new partners to the pandemic action table.

To begin, we need to understand why Indonesia took this radical position, and why it has gained support from other developing nations, even within the Asian influenza region. For the last 50 years, global influenza governance has operated as follows: WHO collaborating laboratories annually analyze samples of new influenza viruses circulating primarily in Asia. A WHO committee then determines which strains appear most likely to affect human populations in the coming months, and manufacturers start producing vaccine for those strains.

Typically some 250–300 million vaccine doses are made each year, and most of those vaccinated are residents of developed countries. This inequitable situation creates concern, especially with the prospect of pandemic influenza increasing. Thus, many political and health officials are scrambling to find a way to increase production and equitable distribution of vaccine. We are currently limited, however, in vaccine technology, pharmaceutical industry incentives, and credible dissemination strategies in many developing countries.

So, as Asian countries have grown anxious about H5N1, and witnessed up to 100% fatality rates in infected chickens and up to 70% mortality rates in infected humans, some developing countries have challenged the traditional global influenza strategy by asking, “What's in it for us? We share virus samples, and pharmaceutical companies make vaccines from them that primarily benefit rich countries. Without better access to vaccine, why should we share virus samples?”

WHO has tried to find a reasonable answer to that question, offering assurance to Indonesia and its sympathizers that the status quo will change. Scientists are trying to invent new vaccines that can protect against a broader range of strains, making it possible to build stockpiles for future use. In addition, pharmaceutical companies are making traditional vaccines against the current avian forms of H5N1.

The deeper problem is, however, that current pharmaceutical strategies for pandemic control basically offer protection to a small number of developed countries. For the rest of the more than 5 billion human beings on the planet, technological solutions are scarce, if not nonexistent.

Stockpiling Control Tools in Hong Kong


The world needs a strategy to overcome the virus sharing impasse and the underlying sources of this problem. Influenza is essentially an aquatic bird virus naturally found among animals that migrate along the Asian flyway from Indonesia to Siberia, so targeted strategic stockpiling for that region makes epidemiological sense. We propose that annually updated supplies of more than 500 million doses of highly specific influenza vaccine, plus antiviral medicines, protective masks and gloves, and germicide washes be stockpiled in Hong Kong.

We select Hong Kong for three key reasons: It has demonstrated absolute transparency regarding disease emergences going back several decades, including the initial recognition of H5N1 in 1997. Hong Kong is also a dynamic center of virus research and response, pioneering most of what is now known about severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza. More importantly, Hong Kong sits in the middle of the ecological zone that has spawned the bulk of all influenza strains known to have emerged over the last three decades.

We advocate that the strategic stockpile be fed continuously and its specificity updated based on circulating forms of viruses. These objectives would be accomplished through an Advance Market Commitment (AMC) mechanism in which the G-8 nations and Asian powerhouses China, India, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan set aside a fund to guarantee purchase of stockpiled products.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) should manage the AMC fund and the stockpiled materials in Hong Kong. APEC has proven to be one of the most dynamic and effective of the world's regional organizations. Through its Health Task Force and other activities, APEC leadership has recognized the need to forestall a devastating pandemic, and the APEC region already shoulders the burden of the ongoing H5N1 pandemic.

APEC has the financial and management capacity to oversee the AMC in a transparent and efficient manner, inviting donations from wealthy nations and philanthropies, as well as from its member states. APEC's political stature also gives it the authority to address the operational challenges created by the stockpile strategy, such as improving Asian developing countries' abilities to effectively distribute materials from the stockpile.

Finally, APEC has the diplomatic trust and political clout necessary to persuade Indonesia and other nations in Asia to share new viral samples with WHO on an urgent, timely, and consistent basis. APEC would rely upon WHO's technical advice in deciding when and how to use the stockpile, recognizing WHO's expertise in influenza virology and epidemiology, as well as in other emerging diseases.

This proposal raises questions about its epidemiological basis, implications for equitable vaccine distribution, and political feasibility. Epidemiologically, H5N1's spread beyond Asia perhaps increases the chances that the feared mutation might happen outside the APEC region. Although this is possible, our proposal relies on what most experts think is probable—that a pandemic strain is most likely to emerge from the Asian region. In addition, the APEC stockpile mechanism could set a precedent that other regional organizations could pursue.

Creation of the proposed stockpile might raise concerns that the AMC will exacerbate inequity for non-APEC developing countries by making stockpiled materials more scarce and costly. Again, this possibility cannot be dismissed lightly, but the AMC should increase global production capacities to fill the growth in demand, thus offering something existing approaches have failed to achieve—serious incentives for significant, sustainable increases in production capabilities. This mechanism can even work to encourage new capacity building in the Asian region.

Breaking the Stalemate

In terms of the political feasibility of our proposal, we believe that the impasse over virus sharing, which threatens global health and international security, has to be addressed with new political strategies and innovative governance mechanisms. WHO and many countries view pandemic influenza as a security threat, revealing the importance of finding political solutions. Without new approaches to bridge the two sides of the dispute, prospects are grim and choices more drastic. Unresolved, this dispute could have two harmful consequences. First, it could threaten the improved cooperation against infectious diseases that has emerged in recent years, and splinter global health governance in ways that pit developed and developing countries against each other across a range of issues, from surveillance to intellectual property rights for pharmaceutical products.

Second, continued failure to break the stalemate may encourage countries threatened by the withholding of virus samples to pursue high-stakes strategies to break the deadlock, perhaps by seeking United Nations Security Council intervention on the grounds that failure to share viruses imperils global health security and international security. There is no way to predict the outcome of putting this issue before the Security Council.

The current stalemate poses such dangers that allowing the dispute to continue to drift and fester undermines prospects of finding solutions to the legitimate issues raised on both sides. An APEC-based strategic stockpile is one way to construct an epidemiologically valid and politically sensible path to ensuring that preparedness for pandemic influenza (and the next SARS or other emerging virus) does not disintegrate, leaving everyone at risk.


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WHO fails to reach deal on sharing bird flu virus

Reuters 23 Nov 07;

GENEVA, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Health officials have failed to reach agreement on a new system to ensure developing countries benefit more from sharing bird flu viruses used to develop vaccines, the World Health Organisation said on Friday.

"Nobody can fault you for not trying ... It is so close, yet so far away," WHO director-general Margaret Chan told the final session of a four-day meeting. (Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Jonathan Lynn)


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Zimbabwe crisis hits black rhino: three rhinos shot

Jon Kay, BBC News 23 Nov 07;

Black rhinos are sometimes shot by poachers, who sell their horns as dagger-handles or for use in Chinese medicine, but the Imire rhinos had recently been de-horned as a precaution, so they didn't have any value to hunters. This has led to fears that black rhinos are instead becoming a target in Zimbabwe's battles over land-ownership.

Three adult black rhinos have been shot at the Imire Safari park in Zimbabwe.

The park, 100km southeast of Harare, is home to one of the only breeding centres for the iconic animals.The shooting has brought the local breeding programme - for what is one of the most endangered mammals on Earth - to a standstill.

Chris Hamilton has just returned to the UK from Zimbabwe, where his family runs the park. He called the situation "desperate". He had tears in his eyes as he showed images of the dead animals on his laptop to BBC News.

The pictures showed all three of his family's adult black rhinos, lying dead on the dusty floor. You can see the bullet-holes in their thick hides. "It's just totally unbelievable," Charles sighed.

For the past 20 years the family has been rearing the animals and returning them to the wild, but last week, in the dead of night, armed men in camouflage gear burst onto the site and shot dead all three adult females.

One of them was just days away from giving birth. Her unborn calf died as well.

"We simply can't believe it. Those rhinos were our friends. We knew them all so well," said Charles.

"It is deeply tragic. We've been left with four little orphan rhinos, which won't be able to reproduce for about 20 years. The whole breeding programme is now at a standstill. It's desperate."

'Critically threatened'

There are only abound 3,000 black rhinos left in the wild, and the species is listed as Critically Endangered by the World Conservation Union, which means they "face an extremely high risk of extinction". Last year, one of the four sub-species was declared as "already extinct".

Not surprisingly, the shootings have caused deep alarm among conservation groups, not least because there have been a number of similar attacks in Zimbabwe this year.

Cathy Dean from Save the Rhino International said: "The situation for rhinos in the country is becoming more and more difficult every day. We must continue to support those working to save the vital rhino populations in this troubled nation."

So, who was responsible for the attack? And why would they have shot the black rhinos?

BBC News is banned from Zimbabwe but a government spokesman has told us that poachers are to blame. He described the shootings as "wanton destruction" and said the police and military had stepped up patrols to search for the gunmen.

Political crossfire

Black rhinos are sometimes shot by poachers, who sell their horns as dagger-handles or for use in Chinese medicine, but the Imire rhinos had recently been de-horned as a precaution, so they didn't have any value to hunters.

This has led to fears that black rhinos are instead becoming a target in Zimbabwe's battles over land-ownership.

Cathy Dean from Save the Rhino said: "Over the last few years, we have made some real progress, working with the conservation authorities in Zimbabwe.

"I hope this event, and others recently, don't mean we are returning to the disastrous poaching of the late 80s and early 90s. I hope this is not the start of a very worrying trend."

According to Charles Hamilton, the orphaned rhinos on his ranch have been left "stunned" by the deaths of their mothers.

The youngest of the orphans, baby Tamba, is now being fed by bottle.

"It's heart-breaking," says Charles, "but we are determined to give these animals a future, and the breeding programme will continue."


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South East Asian nuclear plants a regional concern

Rodolfo C. Severino, Straits Times 24 Nov 07;

It must always be kept in mind that nuclear energy has implications for, and impacts on, the entire region and should thus be treated as a regional concern.



ON WEDNESDAY, the East Asia Summit (EAS), which gathered the leaders of Asean countries as well as those of Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, issued the Singapore Declaration on Climate Change, Energy and the Environment.

They pledged to work together on energy efficiency and the use of cleaner energy by, among other measures, 'cooperating for the development and use of civilian nuclear power, in a manner ensuring nuclear safety, security and non-proliferation, in particular its safeguards, within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), for those EAS participating countries which are interested'.

In January, in Cebu, the Asean Summit and the EAS made similar statements. Singling out 'civilian nuclear power' in these documents evidently resulted at least partly from the plans of several Asean countries to harness nuclear energy for electricity generation.

Last year, nuclear power was included in Indonesia's National Energy Policy 2005-2025. Years earlier, Vietnam had announced its intention to build a nuclear power plant by 2020, and one or two more by 2025.

More recently, Malaysia indicated its intention to operate a plant by 2020. Thailand has been reported to have plans to operate nuclear power plants starting in 2020-2021. The Philippines is reportedly taking steps aimed at operating the Bataan nuclear power plant, which was idled in 1986.

At a conference at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies this month on nuclear power, three conclusions emerged. First, several Southeast Asian governments seem determined to put up nuclear power plants for electricity generation. Next, these governments are worried enough to address concerns about the safety of the plants and the materials that they use, as well as issues like the disposal of nuclear waste. Lastly, the operation of nuclear power plants in the region is not just a national concern but a regional one that Asean should deal with now rather than later.

South-east Asian governments cite a number of reasons for building nuclear power plants. Among them, a cleaner source of power than oil or coal is needed to meet the growing energy demand.

On the other hand, opponents, mainly environmental pressure groups, cite the cost and uncertain economic viability of constructing and operating such plants.

More importantly, they invite attention to the possible catastrophic impact of damage to them from natural disasters, accidents or sabotage, or from the diversion of nuclear materials to unauthorised uses.

In response, governments have pointed out that recent technology has significantly reduced the risk of damage. They have also enacted legislation and entered into international agreements to enhance the security of the proposed plants. And they have gone into detailed public justifications for harnessing nuclear power for civilian use.

In any case, the use of nuclear power for electricity generation poses problems for the region that call for Asean's attention. One is to make sure that nuclear materials are not diverted to military or other illicit uses. Another is how the spent fuel is to be temporarily stored, and where and how to dispose of nuclear waste eventually. Finally, there is the matter of safeguards against the effects of natural disasters, accidents or sabotage.

These problems are not insurmountable, but they have to be dealt with by the region and not just by the state concerned - even in collaboration with the IAEA.

In August this year, Asean ministers of energy agreed 'in principle' to set up an Asean Nuclear Energy Safety Sub-sector Network. Their senior officials are to work out its details. However, nuclear energy is an issue too overarching and political to be left to the energy ministries alone.

Indeed, unknown even to many officials, the 1995 treaty on the South-east Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) not only outlaws nuclear weapons in the region, but also embodies commitments pertaining to the peaceful and safe use of nuclear energy and to the disposal of radioactive material or waste.

In July, the commission set up by the SEANWFZ treaty reviewed compliance with its provisions and adopted a plan to ensure continued compliance. Among the measures specified is the accession to IAEA safeguards agreements. The plan also contains commitments to cooperate with the IAEA and others in putting together legal frameworks for nuclear safety, forming regional networks for the early notification of nuclear accidents, drawing up a regional emergency preparedness response plan, and building capacity.

One thing Asean countries can do immediately is to accede to the relevant UN conventions. The Philippines signed the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials shortly after it opened for signature in 1980. Indonesia did so in 1986, Cambodia in 2006.

Vietnam acceded to the Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident in 1987. Thailand and Indonesia ratified it in 1989 and 1993, respectively. The Philippines, Myanmar and Singapore acceded to it in 1997. Indonesia and the Philippines signed the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management soon after its conclusion in 1997.

Asean should ensure that its other members accede at least to these conventions and ratify them. National laws and regulations on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, particularly those on safety, should be open to Asean scrutiny. A regional early warning system and the formation of emergency response teams have been proposed. Asean should constantly and intensively monitor compliance with the SEANWFZ treaty and the plan of action adopted in July.

In the 1990s, the Philippines proposed the establishment of 'Asiatom', which would deal cooperatively with all aspects of nuclear energy use. The idea did not gain much attention. Perhaps it should be revived. It could be an Asean endeavour, or it could be a matter for Asean Plus 3 or the East Asia Summit.

In any case, it must always be kept in mind that nuclear energy has implications for, and impacts on, the entire region and should thus be treated as a regional concern.

The writer is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. The views expressed here are his own.


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Asian Declarations and climate change: responses of the green lobby

Welcome boost before Bali talks on climate change
Three declarations show Asia has collective will to tackle the problem
Arti Mulchand, Straits Times 24 Nov 07;

There has to be rigorous follow-up. It shouldn't happen that these documents have been signed and remain unattended for quite some time, and then at the next summit they start reviewing things and find that nothing much has happened.

A COLLECTIVE pledge - in the form of three declarations this week in Singapore - came as a welcome boost less than two weeks ahead of a crucial global meeting on climate change in Bali.

Together, the documents represented Asia's collective stand to act on climate change, and to try and curb their emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming.

The third - the Singapore Declaration on Climate Change, Energy and the Environment - was perhaps the most significant, since its 16 signatories include mega-emitters India and China. Both have long resisted shouldering responsibility for the problem.

The other two documents were endorsed by Asean leaders.

All three represent yet another battle won for the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Dr Rajendra Pachauri. He leads a pack of Nobel Prize-winning scientists who, for years, have been trying to convince leaders that climate change is real, the situation dire and the need to act imperative.

'The fact is that Asia is vulnerable, and there is a whole range of climate change impacts that the region has to worry about.

'These are clearly indications of concern among the governments. If they have spent so much time discussing and have come to these declarations, I would say there is adequate political will to follow through with them,' the climate change guru told The Straits Times.

What was also positive, he noted, was the support expressed for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Kyoto Protocol, which requires 36 industrial countries to reduce carbon emissions by an average of 5 per cent from 1990 levels by 2012.

In Bali, world leaders will be looking at ways to put in place a new global plan by 2009 to ensure a smooth transition when the Kyoto Protocol expires.

Asia has clearly acknowledged that it has a role to play even while insisting that developed countries should take the lead in cutting down on emissions, Dr Pachauri said.

The region's collective stand this week is also a recognition of the fact that Asian nations would be better off working together than going in alone.

Dr Pachauri said that for Asia, such declarations were better off emphasising collaboration than commitments, dismissing criticism of the lack of specific goals or a 'great deal of detail'.

Critics, such as Mr Rafael Senga of the global conservation group WWF, said that the Singapore Declaration fell short of the region's ambitions.

They pointed to the fact that India, for example, had shot down the idea to include a specific 'aspirational goal' of making energy work more efficiently by shaving 25 per cent off energy intensity.

'Major players in the region, like China and India, should show leadership in crafting a global consensus towards concrete targets and decisive action,' Mr Senga was quoted as saying by the Associated Press.

Dr Pachauri however retorted that the numbers game should not kick in now. Formulating action was currently more important.

'This is not the right forum for them to be declaring targets. Officials will have to pore over what's possible, the cost and the financing,' he said.

What is crucial, he added, is that follow-up action comes soon.

This is especially so since the meetings in Bali only kick-start the process to find Kyoto's successor, and much can be done between now and the time it expires in 2012.

He said: 'There has to be rigorous follow-up. It shouldn't happen that these documents have been signed and remain unattended for quite some time, and then at the next summit they start reviewing things and find that nothing much has happened.'

Green Lobby

SHOW OF SOLIDARITY

'The declarations are a show of solidarity. The region is going to pay a heavy cost for climate change and it's a high priority for them. But while Asean seems to have got its act together, I'm not sure if that is true for the rest. There are countries still worried about the impact on their economies, and they are coming to Bali in a fairly distracted state. Hopefully they can go beyond that because we are talking about planetary and millennial issues, and not just next year's GDP.'
FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME ASHOK KHOSLA

CLIMATE MILESTONE

'What we should be applauding is that for the first time, there is more solidarity among Asean members than in the past, and we have zeroed in on environmental issues, not singular issues like the haze. That is a milestone.

It is right to say it lacks solid targets... It has no teeth, but perhaps that can come as a follow up. This should give birth to many more rounds involving specialists, technical groups and, most importantly. the private sector.'
SINGAPORE ENVIRONMENT COUNCIL EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HOWARD SHAW

ASPIRATION NOT ENOUGH

'We welcome the Summit's commitment to the UNFCCC process and the Kyoto Protocol as well as the Summit's aim to ensure that the Bali talks will result in an effective, comprehensive and equitable post-2012 international climate change arrangement. Beyond these two facets, the declaration appears to be reheated rhetoric. It recognises the danger posed to Asia by climate change and yet it endorses mere aspirational goals, which commit countries to do nothing in particular by no particular time, if they feel like it. Aspiration is not a strategy and voluntary goals cannot save the climate.'
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL CAMPAIGNER RED CONSTANTINO

NEED FOR TARGETS

'While Asean countries committed to 'stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the long run' and to a 'long-term aspirational emissions reduction goal', this is an inadequate starting point for Bali... While long-term goals are important, they will be impossible to reach without short-term targets and indicative parameters for the next five, 10 and 15 years. Asean was a missed opportunity to outline such parameters.'
OXFAM GREAT BRITAIN'S CLIMATE CHANGE SENIOR ADVISER ANTONIO HILL


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Climate change in focus at Commonwealth summit

Yahoo News 23 Nov 07;

Commonwealth heads of state should send a strong message of support to next month's international summit on climate change in Bali, the 53-nation group's chairman said Friday.

"There is little doubt that in order to keep the adaptation challenge in manageable bounds we must work decisively towards the aim of reducing greeenhouse gas emissions by at least 50 percent below 1990 levels, and this to be reached by 2050," said Lawrence Gonzi, outgoing chairman and Maltese prime minister.

"The challenge of climate change not only requires a united front but an unprecedented level of cooperation and firm action," said Gonzi at the summit's opening ceremony in the Ugandan capital.

He added: "We must send a strong message of support to the forthcoming climate change conference in Bali."

Combating climate change is high on the Commonwealth agenda at the biennial summit, having not even been a footnote to the the final statement at the last meeting on Malta in 2005.

Officials said in the run-up to the summit that all members states are now agreed there is an "urgent" need to tackle the issue.

Present are those in the front line of climate change's effects like Kiribati, a Pacific island group in acute danger of being washed away by rising sea levels, as well as Australia, one of the world's biggest polluters.

The presence of Britain's Prince Charles, attending his first overseas Commonwealth heads of government summit, also ensured the problem was given prominence, as leaders met in behind-closed-doors talks to determine the body's future policy.

"Climate change has become the greatest challenge facing mankind," said Charles, who has previously spoken out about environmental issues, on a visit to a British Council-funded grassroots convention of activists.

"We all hold this planet in trust for our children and grandchildren."

On Thursday, Guyana's President Bharrat Jagdeo called for a carbon credit scheme to be introduced as an incentive for countries to reduce levels of deforestation, which has been blamed for a rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

"Cut down a forest, and you get money. But if you don't cut it down then there is no money for you," he said as the Commonwealth Business Forum wrapped up talks.

Carbon trading allow countries that reduce carbon dioxide emissions below a target level to sell the remainder to a private company or country that has not met the goal.

The loose federation of mostly former British colonies includes some of the world's major polluters such as Australia, who are said to be holding out on a more strongly-worded final Commonwealth communique to take to Bali.

But British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's spokesman Michael Ellam told reporters differing views were to be expected. He refused to say whether Britain was pushing for the Commonwealth to agree on specific binding targets.

"We're looking to achieve consensus here on the business of commitment to a positive agenda in Bali," he added.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Bali aims to see countries agree to launch a roadmap for negotiating cuts in climate-changing carbon emissions from 2012.

That is the date when current pledges under the Kyoto Protocol expire.

Meetings leading up to the Bali talks begin in the Indonesian resort on December 3 and the summit concludes on December 14.

Commonwealth summit focus shifts from Pakistan to climate change
Channel NewsAsia 24 Nov 07

KAMPALA : The Commonwealth's biennial summit opened Friday in Uganda with leaders focusing on climate change, a day after Pakistan, which is still under emergency rule, was suspended from the organisation.

Despite an angry reaction from Islamabad and a thinly-veiled threat to withdraw from the grouping, leaders gathered in Kampala defended the suspension Pakistan's.

"You can be assured that every country that has been suspended will say that we didn't understand the unique circumstances that prevailed in their country at the time," Commonwealth Secretary General Don McKinnon told reporters.

"We think we did," he added.

An ultimatum set by the Commonwealth earlier this month for Musharraf to step down as army chief, free judges and opposition supporters and lift curbs on the media expired on Thursday at 1900 GMT.

Gathered in a retreat just outside the Ugandan capital Kampala, presidents and prime ministers from most of the Commonwealth's 53 members were also set to discuss efforts to combat climate change.

Speaking at the heads of government meeting's opening ceremony, officials emphasised the urgency of the issue and the need to step up cooperation between member states.

"There is little doubt that in order to keep the adaptation challenge in manageable bounds we must work decisively towards the aim of reducing greeenhouse gas emissions by at least 50 percent below 1990 levels, and this to be reached by 2050," said Maltese Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi.

"The challenge of climate change not only requires a united front but an unprecedented level of cooperation and firm action," said Gonzi, also the summit's outgoing chairman.

Yet it remained unclear whether all members would sign up to Gonzi's proposal in the summit's final declaration on Sunday.

"There are still differences," Commonwealth Secretary General Don McKinnon admitted in a press conference.

The loose federation of mostly former British colonies includes some of the world's major polluters: but also some of those countries most at risk from the consequences of global warming.

Among the major polluting countries at the gathering are Britain, Canada -- and Australia, one of few rich nations not to have ratified the Kyoto Protocol on reducing greenhouse gases.

But Commonwealth members in front line of climate change's effects include Kiribati, a Pacific island group in acute danger of being washed away by rising sea levels.

Gonzi added: "We must send a strong message of support to the forthcoming climate change conference in Bali."

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Bali aims to see countries agree to launch a roadmap for negotiating cuts in climate-changing carbon emissions from 2012.

That is the date when current pledges under the Kyoto Protocol expire.

Meetings leading up to the Bali talks begin in the Indonesian resort on December 3 and the summit concludes on December 14.

McKinnon said that heads of state were likely to further discuss the nine-country ministerial committee's decision to suspend Pakistan in spite of continued US support for Musharraf.

He also admitted that there had been divisions within the group, notably objections from Sri Lanka, but stressed the move was the result of consensus.

Musharraf's bloodless coup in 1999 had already earned Pakistan a Commonwealth suspension. It was brought back in the fold in 2004 when the general promised to hang up his uniform, a promise he failed to keep.

The last countries to be suspended were Fiji last year and Zimbabwe in 2002.
- AFP /ls


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UN: Greenhouse gases hit high in 2006

Eliane Engeler, Associated Press, Yahoo News 23 Nov 07;

Two of the most important Greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere reached a record high in 2006, and measurements show that one — carbon dioxide — is playing an increasingly important role in global warming, the U.N. weather agency said Friday.

The global average concentrations of carbon dioxide, or CO2, and nitrous oxide, or N2O, in the atmosphere were higher than ever in measurements coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization, said Geir Braathen, a climate specialist at the Geneva-based agency.

Methane, the third of the three important greenhouse gases, remained stable between 2005 and 2006, he said.

Braathen said measurements show that CO2 is contributing more to global warming than previously.

CO2 contributed 87 percent to the warming effect over the last decade, but in the last five years alone, its contribution was 91 percent, Braathen said. "This shows that CO2 is gaining importance as a greenhouse gas," Braathen said.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose by about half a percent last year to reach 381.2 parts per million, according to the agency. Nitrous oxide totaled 320.1 parts per billion, which is a quarter percent higher than in 2005.

Braathen said it appears the upward trend will continue at least for a few years.

The World Meteorological Organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin provides widely accepted worldwide data on the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Studies have shown that human-produced carbon dioxide emissions heat the Earth's surface and cause greater water evaporation. That leads to more water vapor in the air, which contributes to higher air temperatures. CO2, methane and N2O are the most common greenhouse gases after water vapor, according to the meteorological organization.

They are produced by natural sources, such as wetlands, and by human activities such as fertilizer use or fuel combustion.

There is 36.1 percent more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than there was in the late 18th century, primarily because of combustion of fossil fuels, the World Meteorological Organization bulletin said.

A report presented by a U.N. expert panel said last week that average temperatures have risen 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 100 years, and that 11 of the last 12 years have been among the warmest since 1850. Global Warming also led to a sea level increase by an average seven-hundredths of an inch per year since 1961, according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The panel's report, which said human activity is largely responsible for global warming, noted that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is far higher than the natural range over the last 650,000 years.

The World Meteorological Organization also concluded that "Greenhouse gases are major drivers of global warming and climate change."

The World Meteorological Organization said it based its findings on readings from 44 countries.

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecast that by 2020, 75 million to 250 million people in Africa will suffer water shortages, residents of Asia's large cities will be at great risk of river and coastal flooding, Europeans can expect extensive species loss, and North Americans will experience longer and hotter heat waves and greater competition for water.

Carbon dioxide at record high, stoking warming: WMO
Alister Doyle, Reuters 24 Nov 07;

OSLO (Reuters) - Levels of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas emitted by burning fossil fuels, hit a record high in the atmosphere in 2006, accelerating global warming, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday.

But concentrations of methane, the number two heat-trapping gas, flattened out in a hint that Siberian permafrost is staying frozen despite some scientists' fears that rising temperatures might trigger a runaway thaw.

"In 2006, globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached their highest levels ever recorded," the WMO said. Carbon dioxide is the main gas from human activities blamed by the U.N. climate panel for stoking warming.

The WMO said levels rose 0.53 percent from 2005 to 381.2 parts per million of the atmosphere, 36 percent above levels before the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century.

Levels of nitrous oxide, the number three greenhouse gas produced by burning fuels and by industrial processes, also rose to a record with a 0.25 percent gain in 2006. Levels are 320 parts per billion, 19 percent above pre-industrial times.

"Atmospheric growth rates in 2006 of these gases are consistent with recent years," the WMO said in a report. Rising levels could disrupt the climate, producing more heatwaves, floods, droughts and rising ocean levels.

But levels of methane, which comes from sources such as rotting vegetation in landfills, termites, rice paddies and the digestive process of cows, dipped 0.06 percent to 1,782 parts per billion in 2006.

"Methane levels have been flattening out in recent years," Geir Braathen, WHO's senior scientific officer, told Reuters. Still, methane levels are 155 percent higher than before the Industrial Revolution.

"A widespread melt of Siberian permafrost is a possibility but there is no sign of it in this data," he said, referring to some scientists' fears that frozen methane in the permafrost could be released by rising temperatures and accelerate warming.

"If it was happening it would turn up in these figures," he said.

Braathen also said the relative importance of carbon dioxide was increasing, contributing 91 percent of the total heating effect of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the past five years from 87 percent in the past decade.

Emissions of some heat-trapping gases blamed for depleting the planet's protective ozone layer also dipped in 2006.

More than 190 nations will meet in Bali, Indonesia, from December 3-14 to try to launch two years of negotiations on a new global treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, the main U.N. plan for fighting global warming.

(Editing by Tim Pearce)


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