3 Nov (Wed): Paul Teng on "Sustaining aquaculture to meet the demand for fish" from ecotax at Yahoo! Groups
Seagrassy Collage by Kevin
from teamseagrass
Roosting of a mixed flock of starlings
from Bird Ecology Study Group
Amazing Anomurans: Global checklists now in the Raffles Bulletin of Zoology from wild shores of singapore
Joanne Chan Channel NewsAsia 1 Nov 10;
SINGAPORE : National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan has said the Singapore Index on Cities' Biodiversity aims to be the definitive tool to measure conservation efforts.
The index is the first of its kind for cities to benchmark their efforts and identify areas for improvement.
It uses indicators such as the percentage of protected areas and the strength of governance to determine the city's biodiversity score.
The index was formally endorsed last Saturday at the 10th Conference of Parties (COP) to the Convention on Biological Diversity, held in Nagoya, Japan.
Mr Mah was speaking on Monday at a ground-breaking ceremony of the Gardens by the Bay.
Marina South is now a giant construction site, but that is all set to change by the end of next year.
The first phase of the Gardens by the Bay is scheduled to open in November 2011, including the "Supertrees" or vertical gardens that will be up to 16 storeys tall and Kingfisher Lake.
The Gardens project has faced delays, but is mostly on-track for completion.
Mr Mah said: "The second conservatory ("Cloud Forest") is going to be ready six months later; it will be ready by the middle of 2012.
"The first conservatory ("Flower Dome") will be ready by November/December 2011. So we are doing it in phases because of the delays and some problems in construction."
A ground-breaking ceremony was held on Monday for the Kingfisher Lake - named after the bird species spotted in the area.
Mr Mah said there are hopes that the population of kingfishers will grow once the lake is completed.
Aside from its aesthetic appeal, the lake will also act as a natural filter. Water from the Gardens will run-off into the lake and be cleansed by the aquatic plants before being discharged into the Marina Reservoir.
Japanese company Kikkoman contributed S$1 million towards the development of the lake.
CEO of Kikkoman, Yuzaburo Mogi, said Singapore and the company both recognise the importance of water and it is this shared awareness that led to the donation.
Mr Mogi said: "Kikkoman is very aware of the importance of water. We need water of the highest quality to make soy sauce."
Another conservation effort being pushed forward by Singapore is for more cities to adopt the Singapore Index on Cities' Biodiversity. It has already been test-bedded by over 30 cities.
Mr Mah said: "Seventy European cities are also adopting the concept of the index as part of their own programmes. We have also offered the World Cities Summit as a platform for cities to get together to report on their progress and to prepare for the next COP meeting."
The next World Cities Summit will take place in 2012.
- CNA/al
Related link
Singapore Index on Cities' Biodiversity adopted in Nagoya on the Celebrating Singapore's Biodiversity blog.
Mustafa Shafawi Channel NewsAsia 1 Nov 10;
SINGAPORE : Singapore's second botanic gardens, Gardens by the Bay, is on track for completion at the end of next year.
Significant progress has been made since construction started in November 2007.
Its key features - most notably the two dome-shaped Conservatories and the Super trees - are now visible to anyone travelling along the East Coast Parkway.
National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said the Gardens by the Bay plays a strategic role in Singapore's city in a garden vision.
It will also be a hotbed for biodiversity to flourish, adding to Singapore's urban ecosystem of streetscape greenery, parks, nature reserves and skyrise greenery.
Mr Mah was speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony for KingFisher Lake in the Gardens by the Bay.
Beyond its aesthetic appeal, he said the lake will form part of a sustainable ecosystem.
It acts as a natural filter, capturing run-off water from within the Gardens, cleansing the water, and then releasing it back into the Marina Reservoir.
The lake will over time be a nature habitat teeming with aquatic plants, fishes, dragonflies and birds.
Visitors can learn the value of aquatic plants in nature, and the significance of clean water in sustaining biodiversity.
Japanese company Kikkoman has contributed S$1 million towards the development of the lake. - CNA /ls
Kikkoman donates $1m lake
Soya sauce maker chose project as clean water is key to its trade
Jessica Lim Straits Times 2 Nov 10;
AT FIRST glance, there is little in common between a Japanese soya sauce manufacturing firm and Gardens by the Bay (GB), one of the attractions at Marina Bay.
Dig a little deeper, and there is - in the most prosaic way imaginable. Clean water is an essential component of soya sauce. And GB's lakes help produce just that: water that is filtered and drained into the reservoir to be finally piped into homes and factories.
This is why soya sauce maker Kikkoman Corporation is donating $1 million to GB for the development of Kingfisher Lake, a 5,800 sqm body of water in GB's Bay South garden. The sum - the largest cash donation GB has received - will be used to build features like a mini-waterfall, a lily pool and a spring water system.
Kingfisher Lake captures run-off water from the gardens, filters it through aquatic plants and then discharges clean water into the Marina Reservoir nearby.
The firm's Singapore arm - Kikkoman Singapore - committed the money through the Garden City Fund, a registered charity of the National Parks Board, which runs GB. 'To make high-quality soya sauce, pure and clean water is very important. Gardens by the Bay has some unique and very important water management initiatives using water circulation systems and aquatic plants,' said Kikkoman chief executive Yuzaburo Mogi at a ground-breaking ceremony for Kingfisher Lake on Monday.
He said the firm, which is celebrating its 25th year in Singapore, approached GB after researching possible water-related projects it could sponsor.
Carbon tax needed if global emission-curbing regime arises: PM Lee
Satish Cheney Channel NewsAsia 1 Nov 10;
SINGAPORE: Singapore will have to apply a carbon price - be it through a carbon tax or a cap and trade scheme - to send the right price signals, if there's a global regime to curb carbon emissions.
This is according to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong who was speaking at the Singapore Energy Lecture on Monday.
The Ministry of Finance had previously said it would be "more practical" to reduce carbon emissions through taxes because Singapore is a small domestic market with only "a few large energy consumers".
PM Lee said it is not enough to just push for efficiency gains because of the rebound effect.
Consumers would just use more efficient appliances more often, thereby increasing overall consumption.
So, there's a need to impose a charge to induce consumers to change their behaviour.
Mr Lee said this at the Singapore Energy Lecture on Monday.
He said this was part of a four-pronged strategy to prepare itself for the future energy landscape.
"If there's a global regime to curb carbon emissions, that means that Singapore will have to reduce our own emissions more sharply than we are doing now, in order to comply with international obligations, and we would have to make the carbon price explicit to send the right price signals," said PM Lee.
Analysts said it is not easy to figure out how a carbon tax will impact consumers and companies here in Singapore as details are not available for now.
But green activists welcome the idea, saying it will encourage more environmentally-conscious behaviour.
One suggestion is to invest the money collected towards energy research.
Howard Shaw, Executive Director of Singapore Environment Council said: "Currently the energy tariff is a flat figure. So, if you use more, you pay more. Perhaps one way of moving forward from that is to divide households into lower energy users, average energy users and high energy users.
"Basically, the high energy users will be subject to a different higher tariff. So, the more you use, the more you pay in terms of rate."
India, which is Asia's third-largest energy consumer, already has a carbon tax.
In July this year, the Indian government introduced a nationwide carbon tax of 50 rupees per metric tonne of coal both produced and imported into India. Officials expect to raise 25 billion rupees for the financial year 2010-2011 from the tax which they are hoping to use for a clean energy fund.
Countries like Japan and South Korea are considering implementing a carbon tax.
Meanwhile, Mr Lee says there are many uncertainties surrounding the energy climate.
So Singapore is diversifying its energy supplies as well as investing in energy research.
The prime minister noted that several Southeast Asian countries are planning to build nuclear power plants.
Given its small size, safety is a major concern for Singapore.
At the same time, he said the nuclear energy option could not be totally dismissed.
"There is often strong resistance in countries - from the green movement, from populations who have witnessed accidents like Chernobyl, and are fearful and anxious about their safety. But if we look at this rationally, without nuclear energy, the world cannot make sufficient progress in dealing with global warming," said Mr Lee.
He added it would be a long time before Singapore takes any decision on nuclear energy, but it should ready itself to do so.
-CNA/wk/ls
Making the right energy choice
The way forward is to impose a charge, says Prime Minister Lee
Teo Xuanwei Today Online 2 Nov 10;
SINGAPORE - By his reckoning, the United Nations climate change talks in Cancun this month will not yield an agreement. But if a global treaty is reached to curb carbon emissions, Singapore will have to apply a "carbon price", said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
Speaking at the Singapore Energy Lecture yesterday, Mr Lee pointed out that sending the "right price signals" is part of its key strategies for the future energy landscape.
The way forward, said Mr Lee, is to get consumers to "make the right choices" by imposing a charge - through a tax system or cap-and-trade scheme.
Said Mr Lee: "At present, we don't have a carbon tax, but we calculate a shadow price for carbon in our cost-benefit analysis so that Government policies and decision making can be better-informed and rational."
"If there's a global regime to curb carbon emissions, and that means Singapore will have to reduce our own emissions more sharply than we're doing now in order to comply with international obligations, then we'll have to make the carbon price explicit to send the right price signals."
Mr Lee said Singapore is investing in industry research and development, developing infrastructure, diversifying energy supplies and keeping options - including nuclear power - open.
While Singapore uses market forces in the energy sector as far as possible, a competitive industry and more energy-efficient technologies may not be sufficient, he said.
The Finance Ministry had previously said it would be "more practical" to reduce carbon emissions here through taxes because Singapore is a small domestic market with only "a few large energy consumers".
The Economic Strategies Committee had also recommended the Government price energy to reflect its "total cost", including energy security and environmental sustainability.
Industry experts whom MediaCorp spoke to yesterday said carbon pricing here is "inevitable at a certain point",
Said Cuscaden Investments director David Hoe: "For those who believe that climate change is caused by an increase in carbon, the only way for rational economic behaviour is to put a price on the intangible long-term losses in the environment."
Although determining the "real price" of carbon is tricky and has implications on individuals and the economy, it is the only way to focus everybody's minds on energy efficiency, added Mr Hoe, who expects the move to happen within five years.
KEEPING NUCLEAR ENERGY OPTION OPEN
Mr Lee also reiterated the need to diversify energy supplies to "protect ourselves against supply disruptions and price fluctuations".
Singapore is building a liquefied natural gas terminal, which will be ready by 2013, instead of relying on piped natural gas from its neighbours. Other possibilities include coal and importing electricity from nearby sources.
One more "big solution" is nuclear power, said Mr Lee, who acknowledged it was "very difficult to do" and "not something we can likely undertake".
An obvious obstacle is opposition due to safety fears. "If we even build one, it'll be very difficult to put it far from population," he said.
But Singapore "can't afford to dismiss the option of nuclear energy altogether". Said Mr Lee: "If we look at this rationally, the world can't make sufficient progress in dealing with global warming without nuclear energy."
He cited the example of Germany, where despite "tremendous opposition" and a previous commitment, the government extended their nuclear plants beyond 2020. Mr Lee also noted that the United States may build new plants for the first time in 30 years.
It may take Singapore "a long time", but it is important to keep up with new developments and give the country "the ability to exercise the option, should it one day become necessary and feasible".
Asked during the Q&A session if this might happen during his administration, Mr Lee said: "I would say possibly during my lifetime."
Safety a major concern but nuclear power can't be dismissed
Singapore should have ability to exercise option should it be necessary one day
Joyce Hooi Business Times 2 Nov 10;
(SINGAPORE) While a nuclear power plant in Singapore is not just around the corner, it is certainly on the horizon.
When pressed for a timeframe on how soon there might be one on the island at the Singapore Energy Lecture yesterday, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said: 'Possibly during my lifetime.'
It is, however, 'not very soon', he added.
In his lecture at the event that was part of Singapore International Energy Week, Mr Lee said that Singapore's small size would be a challenge, in addition to the existing concerns about safety, nuclear waste disposal and the challenges faced by developing countries in building nuclear power plants.
'Safety is a major concern, because of our high urban density . . . and yet we cannot afford to dismiss the option of nuclear power altogether,' he told the audience.
'So we keep up with new developments, the technologies are advancing - smaller, safer reactors, with more fuel-efficient designs that reduce the amount of nuclear waste produced and we keep up with experiences in other countries.'
He said that it would be a long time before any decision is made on nuclear energy.
But, Singapore should be ready to do so. It should have the ability to exercise such an option, 'should it one day become necessary and feasible'.
Singapore will have to start building up its capabilities now by consulting specialists and training its engineers and scientists to assess the developments in nuclear energy, he said.
'Without nuclear energy, the world cannot make sufficient progress in dealing with global warming,' he said.
In the region, other countries have taken the plunge. Russia will be helping to build Vietnam's first nuclear plant, while Malaysia has approved construction of one.
Indonesia's House of Representatives have also approved the government's plans to build nuclear plants.
Mr Lee also emphasised the need to factor carbon into the price of energy if a global commitment to cut carbon emissions is reached.
'If there is a global regime to curb carbon emissions, and Singapore has to reduce (carbon) emissions more sharply to comply with our international obligations, then we will have to make the carbon price explicit to send the right price signals.'
If carbon were to be priced into energy use, it would apply to both the industry and consumers, he said.
In his speech yesterday, Mr Lee spoke about four key strategies to cope with the changing landscape of energy - promoting competitive markets, diversifying energy supplies, building robust infrastructure and investing in energy research and innovation.
Government preparing for nuclear power option
We need to be ready when time comes for us to make a decision: PM
Rachel Chang Straits Times 2 Nov 10;
SINGAPORE will start now to prepare for the day when nuclear energy is necessary and feasible.
That day may not be that far off, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said yesterday at a dialogue at an annual Singapore energy conference.
When asked by moderator Sri Jegarajah from broadcasting station CNBC whether it would be during his time in office, he said to laughter: 'I would say possibly during my lifetime.'
Earlier, PM Lee, in a 45-minute address, gave the clearest indication yet that nuclear power is increasingly an option being scrutinised by the Government.
Identifying nuclear power as an 'important part of the solution to mankind's energy problems', he said Singapore is building up its capabilities now because the nuclear option is one it 'cannot afford to dismiss'.
Measures taken will include getting in touch with nuclear experts as well as training local engineers and scientists, the Prime Minister said.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry is currently in the midst of doing a feasibility study on having nuclear power here.
'It will be a long time before we make any decision on nuclear energy,' he said. 'But we should get ourselves ready to get ready to do so. That means to give Singapore the ability to exercise the option should it one day become necessary and feasible.'
PM Lee's keynote lecture at the Singapore International Energy Week was attended by 800 businessmen, policymakers and analysts from across the globe.
The conference, which ends on Thursday, offers a variety of sessions on topics ranging from power generation and energy security to carbon trading.
In his address, PM Lee dwelt on the future energy challenges facing the world and Singapore's energy strategy.
This includes diversifying the country's energy supplies, as well as introducing measures to influence Singaporeans to adopt a more energy-saving lifestyle.
His lecture comes a month before the United Nations global conference on climate change in Mexico and amid an uncertain world where government leaders, he said, are grappling with such questions as: 'Will future energy prices rise significantly? What will be the global regime on climate change? What new technologies will emerge?'
But PM Lee made it clear that Singapore would put a price on carbon, should a legally binding global agreement to curb carbon emissions be reached.
He did not specify whether this carbon price, which all consumers and businesses must pay, would be in the form of a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade scheme.
But he revealed the Government has already calculated a 'shadow price for carbon' which it uses in policy-making.
PM Lee's comments on nuclear energy come in the wake of a building momentum in the region and around the world in favour of nuclear power.
Where once governments promised to retire reactors to placate populations fearful of disasters such as the one in Chernobyl, Ukraine, in 1986, the looming urgency of finding alternatives to fossil fuels has refocused minds.
He cited Germany's 17 nuclear reactors as an example. Scheduled to shut down by 2020, its Bundestag, or Parliament, has extended their use by 12 years on average despite widespread objection.
Closer to home, South-east Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia have plans to build reactors.
But before embarking on them, developing countries must first build up a strong safety culture, among other things, he said.
For highly urban Singapore, its small size poses an extra challenge, he added.
'If we ever build (a nuclear plant), it's very hard to put it far from population because nowhere in Singapore is far from population,' he said.
'But we cannot afford to dismiss the option of nuclear power altogether.'
He expressed the hope that technological advances to make nuclear reactors smaller, safer and less waste-emitting would one day make them feasible here.
'If we look at this rationally, without nuclear energy, the world cannot make sufficient progress in dealing with global warming,' he stressed.
Nanyang Technological University Assistant Professor Chang Youngho said building up local capabilities was a step in the right direction: 'We need to train local people who can design nuclear plants for the local context.'
A price on carbon if climate pact is inked
PM Lee says this will send right message to consumers, businesses
Jessica Cheam Straits Times 2 Nov 10;
SINGAPORE will have to put a price on carbon to send the right message to consumers and businesses if all countries pledge to curb greenhouse gas emissions, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said yesterday.
This could be in the form of a carbon tax which would translate to higher energy costs, or through 'cap and trade', a form of carbon trading that rewards those who save energy and makes polluters pay for their emissions.
It is not enough for Singapore to 'just push for (energy) efficiency gains', he said, because energy consumption can still increase when consumers use energy-efficient appliances such as air-conditioners more often.
Hence the need to charge people to change their behaviour, he said yesterday at the annual Singapore Energy Lecture held at Suntec City as part of Singapore International Energy Week.
This is the first time Singapore has explicitly declared it will impose a carbon price if a global deal on climate change is reached.
Mr Lee's comments to an 800-strong audience come a few weeks before the United Nations climate change meeting in Cancun, Mexico where governments across the globe will meet to negotiate a global climate treaty.
In a changing energy landscape, Singapore's challenge will be to find energy that is cost-competitive, secure, and clean and sustainable.
To that end, it has invested in beefing up knowledge and capabilities in different types of energy such as nu-clear and solar to give the country more options in the future.
It is also diversifying its energy supplies, such as by importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) and building an LNG terminal by 2013.
Other strategies include building a robust electricity grid and gas infrastructure and promoting a competitive market. Singapore, for instance, is the first country in Asia to liberalise its electricity and gas markets.
Some of these strategies were part of the recommendations in an Economic Strategies Committee report released in February.
Singapore does not have a carbon tax now, but Mr Lee said the Government has calculated a 'shadow price for carbon' to help it formulate policies.
He did not elaborate on what this price is, but the current price of a UN-approved carbon credit is between ? 12 (S$22) and ? 15 a tonne.
'If there is a global regime to curb carbon emissions... then we will have to make the carbon price explicit to send the right price signals,' he said.
Speaking at the sidelines of the event yesterday, Energy Market Authority chief executive Lawrence Wong said details of the carbon price and how it will be implemented are 'still being studied'.
Countries like New Zealand have just established a cap-and-trade system and many European countries such as Germany and Switzerland have carbon taxes.
Singapore had previously committed to reducing its emissions by 16 per cent below business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2020 if a legally binding climate change deal is finally reached.
Its current plan, without any deal, is to reduce by about 7 to 11 per cent below BAU levels by 2020.
Commenting on a question from the audience about the upcoming negotiations in Cancun, Mr Lee said he does not think there will be a 'grand agreement', but it was important to keep the conversation going.
'It's not something you can solve with one international negotiation... we hope cumulatively (to) make progress in time so we don't have sudden catastrophic change in the global climate,' he said.
Carbon pricing system still being studied
Jessica Cheam & Grace Chua Straits Times 2 Nov 10;
IT IS only a matter of time before Singapore introduces a carbon pricing system, and consumers and businesses will be charged for the carbon emissions tagged to their goods and services.
That was the view of environmentalists and those from the energy sector, after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said yesterday that the country would impose carbon pricing if a global agreement on curbing carbon emissions was reached.
Asked to elaborate on the pricing system and who it would affect, Energy Market Authority chief executive Lawrence Wong said: 'The concept is clear enough that you have a carbon price which applies to all, not just one group of consumers, but residential and industrial consumers.
'All have to pay a carbon price.'
The authority is studying the method that Singapore should adopt: a carbon tax or a cap on carbon emissions and trading of allowances.
Industry leaders such as chief executive Edwin Khew of IUT Global, a waste-to-energy firm, said that while companies here had started to look at reducing their operational costs - a large part of which was energy - some small and medium-sized enterprises had not fully considered the impact of higher energy costs.
'If the carbon tax kicks in, these companies will be scrambling,' said Mr Khew, who is also chairman of the Sustainable Energy Association of Singapore.
So, will a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system work better for Singapore?
Credit Suisse's Asian chief economist Joseph Tan said it could be a combination of both. 'The concept of a carbon price, while established in Europe, is new to Asia,' he noted.
Of the two, he felt that a carbon tax would be easier to implement in the short run.
'A carbon tax is much easier to understand first,' he added.
When consumers and businesses are more familiar with carbon prices, then a cap and trade system could be implemented.
Singapore's position in the region could served it well as a carbon trading hub, Mr Tan pointed out.
'Carbon trading will allow more market participation as businesses will need to buy and sell. Relying on market prices will also be an efficient way of allocating resources,' he added.
Having a carbon pricing system would also make people think twice about buying energy-guzzling products, said Mr Howard Shaw, executive director of the Singapore Environment Council.
He pointed out that a carbon price of sorts already existed, in the form of higher road tax and certificate of entitlement prices for cars with larger engines.
But Mr Shaw also wanted to know what the revenue from a carbon tax would be used for.
'Will it go back into government reserves or will it actually be directed into the implementation of clean and renewable energy resources in Singapore?' he asked.
The latter was necessary, he said, to shift towards a clean-energy economy.
Ronnie Lim Business Times 2 Nov 10;
YTL-owned PowerSeraya is interested in commercially importing Malaysian electricity into Singapore sooner than the government's suggested medium-term 2018 target, while China Huaneng-owned Tuas Power is looking into the possibility of coal gasification to produce electricity.
The heads of the two big Singapore gencos told BT this on the sidelines of the Singapore Energy Summit yesterday when asked about the Republic's plan to allow the gencos to use these options as a way to help them diversify from their 80 per cent dependence on piped Indonesian and Malaysian gas.
Right now, Singapore's diversification strategy is to complete the $1.5 billion LNG terminal, with the first liquefied natural gas arriving here in 2013.
'Singapore could consider allowing electricity imports before this,' said John Ng, chief executive of PowerSeraya, adding that it has broached this with regulator Energy Market Authority.
The Republic can immediately import some 200 megawatts from Malaysia through two 230kV submarine cables at Senoko which currently connect the two countries.
It had previously indicated that it would allow foreign power imports of up to 600MW, or about 10 per cent of peak demand here.
YTL, as far back as 1997, was interested in supplying electricity to Singapore, and will need to build its own connections to the Republic if it wants to supply more than 200MW, Mr Ng said.
But the regulator will need to set up a structure first to allow for such electricity imports, he added.
Other issues include getting Tenaga's nod, plus recognising the fact that Malaysian gas feedstock is subsidised.
There will also be need for clarification by EMA whether such imports will count as part of the genco's licensed capacity.
Separately, Tuas Power's president and CEO Lim Kong Puay told BT that it was starting to look at coal gasification here, but that it will also study whether the market can support more capacity, given the new plants planned by a number of gencos.
A coal gasification project will be about 30 per cent more expensive than a combined cycle gas firing plant, he added.
Tuas has already embarked on the coal route, but on a smaller scale, through its $2 billion clean coal/biomass multi-utilities project on Jurong Island, which will provide an additional 102MW of electricity.
Following the Economic Strategies Committee's recommendations, EMA has just set out in its Statement of Opportunities 2010 report that it was prepared to allow coal use and electricity imports in the medium-term - once LNG imports reach three million tonnes per annum or by 2018, whichever is earlier.
Citing these two diversification options in his Singapore Energy Lecture yesterday, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that Singapore gencos should be encouraged to pursue these options commercially.
New technologies like gasification plants are reducing the impact on environment as they can create synthetic gas from coal, and they also have the potential to generate cost-effective baseload electricity in the future, he said.
'The EMA will create an open and flexible framework for diversification to take place on a market basis,' he added.
Huaneng's Yuhuan plant is spotlessly clean, and lessons learnt there will find their way here
Ronnie Lim Business Times 2 Nov 10;
CLEAN coal - which Tuas Power will use as a feedstock at its upcoming $2 billion clean coal/biomass Tuas Multi-Utilities Complex (TMUC) on Jurong Island - seems an oxymoron. But given technology such as ultra-supercritical coal-firing plants, as well as carbon-capture facilities being developed by its new owner, China Huaneng, Singapore's first coal-firing station coming on stream in 2012 seems in good hands, regarding environment issues.
Dispelling preconceptions of choking fumes and soot spewing from its chimney stacks, Huaneng's Yuhuan coal-firing plant, which our group of Singapore journalists visited, is spotlessly clean. Enhancing its 'green-ness', the plant, along the south-east coast of Zhejiang, is nestled amid rice and vegetable fields with 'bei shan, mian hai' - or mountains behind and the sea in front - which is considered good Feng Shui.
More critically, pardon the pun, Yuhuan's ultra-supercritical power plant has boilers which can operate at higher temperatures and have greater thermal efficiency, therefore it uses less coal to produce the electricity. The plant is considered one of the cleanest, most efficient and advanced worldwide.
With 4,000-megawatt (MW) capacity, the Yuhuan station is also Huaneng's biggest. It is 50 per cent bigger than the 2,670MW Tuas Power (TP), which Huaneng acquired from Temasek Holdings for $4.2 billion in 2008, and about a fifth larger than Singapore's largest genco, the 3,300MW Senoko Energy.
Capitalising on its superior efficiency, the Yuhuan facility is also Huaneng's biggest electricity generator of all its power plants in China. Yuhuan produced a whopping 16.9 billion kilowatt hours of electricity in the first three quarters of this year, or almost 9 per cent of Huaneng's total output in that period, latest figures show.
Yuhuan is an integral part of Huaneng's 'green action' drive to cut its greenhouse emissions, which is important given that 85 per cent of the group's power stations are coal-firing. It has also embarked on developing energy alternatives such as wind, solar and biomass. A Huaneng official says: 'We have an aggressive plan to produce about 35 per cent of our electricity from clean energy by 2020.'
On the coal-firing front, Huaneng is working hard to reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by developing technology such as the ultra-supercritical plants employed at Yuhuan, and also through carbon-capture pilot projects like its Shidongku 2 station, just outside Shanghai.
TP's TMUC project, which was based on Japanese technology, was already at an advanced development stage when Huaneng first came into the picture. Nevertheless, the new Chinese owner has not shied from getting involved.
'Huaneng has extensive experience which TP can tap as it develops the Tembusu project,' a Huaneng official said.
For instance, Huaneng is getting Chinese manufacturers, including boiler makers, involved in TMUC, 'as costs are lower than in Japan', one official said. Tapping its connections, it is also sourcing low-ash coal from South-east Asia for the project. TP's Singapore engineers have also been to the Chinese coal plants, such as at Shidongku, to learn how Huaneng handles its coal.
At Yuhuan, for example, barges unload coal at the plant's jetty from which it is transported via a fully enclosed conveyor system to covered storage silos before use.
'This is exactly what we will do in Tuas as well,' remarks a TP official. Additionally, TMUC's use of carbon-neutral biomass feedstock, such as palm kernel, will help reduce the plant's emissions to a level comparable with those of oil-fired plants.
Yuhuan has China's first 1,000MW ultra-supercritical pressure boilers which, by operating at 600° Celsius steam temperatures, result in a net thermal efficiency of around 46 per cent, or 6 per cent more than the earlier-generation supercritical plants.
'This also means that we burn about 6 per cent less coal to produce the same electricity output,' said a Yuhuan official, adding that the station is planning to add another two super-ultracritical plants to the existing four, with each 'possibly even going up to 1,200MW capacity'.
Parallel to this, at its 2,400MW Shidongku 2 station on Shanghai's outskirts, Huaneng has developed a pilot facility for carbon capture (that is, CC without the S, as in storage), with its 100,000 tonnes per annum CC plant there currently the largest in the world. This was an expansion of its first Beijing CC pilot plant, which captures just 3,000 tonnes of CO2 per annum.
'Beijing and Shanghai were chosen for the carbon-capture pilot plants as they were the most polluted cities,' said Chen Xi, a director at TP's Beijing office.
Still, with most of China's coal plants still focusing on desulphurisation processes, CO2 capture is still relatively new, admits Cao Xuegao, Shidongku's vice-plant manager.
The 150 million yuan (S$29 million) Shidongku CC plant occupies an area of 6,000 square metres and is divided into carbon-capture and refining sections, with the latter processing the carbon into 99.5 per cent pure CO2 for sale to the food and beverage industry (to produce carbonated drinks, for example).
But the CC pilot plant - which barely captures 2 per cent of the CO2 produced by the Shindongku 2 power station - is not commercially viable yet, concedes Mr Cao.
It is a costly process with the carbon capture costing about 300-350 yuan per tonne. But as the CC plant has been barely operational for 10 months, 'we are looking to just break even and not make profits at this stage', he adds.
Huaneng is now working with Xian Thermal Research Institute on how to optimise the CC process to try to further lower costs, he says. This will likely involve a combination of a scaling-up in capacity as well as through technology advances.
'The Beijing and Shidongku CC pilot projects will provide the basis for the study of large-scale CO2 capture and geological storage technologies,' Mr Cao says.
Still, given that carbon capture is still a work-in-progress and not commercially viable yet, it is unlikely that Huaneng will be able to introduce the technology at its Singapore TMUC project for a while yet. Undoubtedly, however, lessons learnt will eventually find their way here.
New Tuas facility will recycle industrial waste from solar-cell manufacturing
Dhevarajan Devadas Straits Times 2 Nov 10;
A NEW recycling plant that makes the production of solar cells even greener was opened yesterday.
The $100 million Tuas facility, set up by Norway's Metallkraft, is mainly to recycle material used at the world's biggest integrated solar cell complex, also in Tuas.
That $2.6 billion facility, set up by fellow Norwegian firm Renewable Energy Corp (REC), is due to be officially opened tomorrow.
The main function of Metallkraft's facility is to recycle REC's spent slurry, a liquid used to cut silicon wafers, which would otherwise become industrial waste. This recycling will be done without adding any chemicals or producing waste streams.
REC can then use the recycled slurry instead of fresh slurry.
Metallkraft said its proprietary process can recycle 100 per cent of spent slurry.
Speaking at the opening ceremony, Metallkraft chief executive Gunnar Kulia said that Singapore was an excellent choice as a location for the plant.
'The Singapore Government has supported Metallkraft since day one. Singapore has a business-friendly environment, and establishes a framework that stimulates growth and development,' he said.
He also thanked the Economic Development Board (EDB) for its assistance, saying that it had been 'supportive and active' in the development of the plant.
Mr Liang Ting Wee, EDB's director of energy and chemicals, welcomed Metallkraft to 'leverage Singapore as a strategic base to grow and expand its businesses in the Asia-Pacific region'.
He added that Singapore aims to foster a strong support system for solar companies in various parts of the value chain, such as equipment and materials.
JTC Corporation's assistant chief executive and guest of honour, Mr David Tan, lauded Metallkraft for helping reduce the environmental impact of REC's manufacturing process by re-using what would otherwise be industrial waste.
He also spoke about how Singapore intends to grow its clean technology sector, with the Government having endorsed a $1 billion fund for the National Innovation Challenge.
'A significant portion of the funds will focus on the development of manpower and R&D capabilities. In so doing, we want to leverage on our capabilities in research and infrastructure to support companies in three ways: first, by creating a vibrant research ecosystem; second, by expanding and deepening our capabilities; and third, by shaping Singapore as a 'living laboratory'.'
Mr Tan added that the clean tech industry is expected to contribute about $3.4 billion to Singapore's GDP and employ 18,000 people by 2015.
City living, time pressures and a decline in the desire to explore is leaving many people 'disconnected' from the outdoors
Steven Morris The Guardian 30 Oct 10;
City dwellers are becoming "terrified" of the countryside as urban pressures leave many disconnected from the great outdoors, the director general of the National Trust warns today.
Dame Fiona Reynolds believes city dwellers, especially the young and poor, are damaging their health by being increasingly confined to urban areas and the indoors.
The trust is launching a six-month campaign to investigate whether the nation is losing touch with the countryside and to see what can be done about it.
Reynolds argued that schools should make sure pupils spend time outdoors and sleep in the countryside. She is also recommending that health professionals should prescribe activities in rural areas to help improve public health. She said: "It's urgent we reconnect people. We're breeding a society that's less confident about exploring, less confident about going to places we haven't been to before.
"There is evidence that people who are brought up in big cities are scared and see the countryside as a place full of unfamiliar and unexpected things. It's becoming this great unknown, alien place."
One problem, she said, was unfamiliarity. "If you've grown up in the inner city, you're used to a place where there's lots going on, where there's lots of buildings, lots of light. The countryside is quiet and dark – not having that same geography can be frightening for people."
There are also practical problems, with city-dwellers with poor map-reading skills prone to getting lost. "A lot of people aren't confident in setting off for a walk. They can't follow a map, there might be a farmer who tells them off, they may get lost. People find it inhibiting."
Reynolds, a passionate walker, said: "Whether through pressures of time or physical access, as a nation we seem to be increasingly disconnected from the fabric of the country. Today's generation runs the risk of being terrified of the countryside."
The six-month consultation is part of a move by the trust to encourage more people to make more use of its gardens, parks, hills and coastlines, rather than thinking of the charity just as a custodian of great houses. The trust's Outdoor Nation initiative begins with a debate at the annual meeting today. The charity is keen for its findings to be fed into the government's natural environment white paper, due to be published next spring. People will be invited to join the debate and a "roving reporter" will travel the countryside to find out about attitudes.
Reynolds believes that moves to protect the countryside after the second world war also created barriers. A tendency among parents to over-protect children and youngsters' devotion to television and computer screens exacerbated the situation.
She thinks the problem is more acute among poorer, lower socio-economic groups who are less able to travel. "We don't have the same expectation that kids will play outside. It means children don't discover things, they don't have the same curiosity about nature. It doesn't do people any good to always be indoors, to be mollycoddled, protected."
She said children should be able to spend nights camping. "This allows them to experience something different from their daily lives – in a safe environment but one that stretches them, makes them able to explore, stretch the boundaries of their comfort zone."
Reynolds would also like to see doctors prescribing country walks. "When you are walking everything calms down, you can think clearly, you can breathe fresher air. It can be a form of preventative medicine. Walking is a brilliant way to find yourself, to give yourself space."
The project also aims to explore how "big society" partnerships between NGOs and community groups could help provide greater access to local green space.
"The message is that your quality of life can be enhanced by access to nature. There is beauty everywhere. You find a little stream or a little patch of trees that you can fall in love with. "Every place has something magical and heart-lifting."
Penny Macrae Yahoo News 1 Nov 10;
NEW DELHI (AFP) – Premier Manmohan Singh told India's energy firms on Monday to scour the globe for fuel supplies as he warned the country's demand for fossil fuels is set to soar 40 percent over the next decade.
The country of more than 1.1 billion people already imports nearly 80 percent of its crude oil to fuel an economy that is expected to grow 8.5 percent this year and at least nine percent next year.
Demand for hydrocarbons -- petroleum, coal, natural gas -- "over the next 10 years will increase by over 40 percent," Singh told an energy conference in New Delhi.
"India needs adequate supplies of energy at affordable prices to meet the demand of its rapidly growing economy," he said, as rising Indian incomes spur industrial demand and more people buy energy-guzzling cars and appliances.
Singh's call comes as India is locked in a race with emerging market rival China for fuel supplies to feed their booming economies in which analysts say Beijing has taken a strong lead.
India faces "immense competition from China which has been far quicker to react when an asset becomes available," Kalpana Jain, senior director of global consultancy Deloitte, told AFP.
Most of India's fuel demand must be met from imports as the increase in supply from domestic maturing oil fields is expected to be just 12 percent over the next 10 years, Singh said.
The government is "encouraging national oil companies to pursue equity in oil and gas opportunities overseas," he said, adding "hydrocarbons will continue to be our major source of energy for quite some time."
"We seek to build strong economic partnerships with other countries and their oil and gas industries to the mutual benefit of each other," he said.
At the same time, Singh said because of climate change there needs to be a "rethink on the traditional energy basket which is presently loaded in favour of (global-warming) fossil fuels."
India is expected to put forward a new model on curbing carbon dioxide emissions among countries at UN global climate talks to be held in Mexican resort Cancun in December.
Singh's statements came as state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), India biggest oil explorer, said it was looking at a "proposal" by investment bankers to buy a stake in an Angolan oil field held by energy giant ExxonMobil.
"We are examining one such opportunity," said R.S. Butola, managing director of ONGC's overseas arm which heads the drive to secure energy supplies.
India was "definitely interested" but added it remained to seen if Exxon wanted to dispose of the stake, he told reporters.
The Economic Times newspaper earlier said the 25-percent stake could be worth up to two billion dollars.
India has been struggling to catch up with China in the race for fuel in Africa, Latin America and elsewhere. Everywhere, China -- with its deep pockets and energetic diplomacy -- has been beating bureaucratic India to the punch in the quest to lock in long-term supplies abroad, analysts say.
In October, leading Chinese refiner Sinopec acquired a 40 percent stake in the Brazilian branch of Spanish energy company Repsol.
India may be luckier if it seeks to buy the Angolan stake.
Angola has said it would favour a joint approach by an Indian national oil company with the African nation's state-owned firm Sonangol, the Press Trust of India reported.
"India needs quick decision-making. China is here to stay and they are here to go after the same assets," said Deloitte's Jain.
Giff Johnson Yahoo News 1 Nov 10;
MAJURO, Marshall Islands (AFP) – The low-lying Marshall Islands, a Pacific atoll chain that rises barely a metre above sea level, has announced plans for a wall to hold back rising sea levels.
"We want to prevent erosion and stop flooding," UN ambassador Phillip Muller said at the weekend, launching an appeal for 20 million dollars in international donor funds to get the project under way.
The full cost of the protective sea wall has not been released and Muller said the initial plea for donor funds is for detailed engineering work on the project.
The vulnerability of the Marshalls was highlighted two years ago when floods hit the eastern shore of the main Majuro Atoll causing several million dollars in damage and forcing dozens of islanders to live in temporary shelters.
The Honolulu-based National Weather Service, a US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-supported agency, recently warned of possibly more severe flooding in the next two months.
"The sea level should be similar or higher than those seen during 2008, when waves flooded parts of Majuro and other atolls in the country," the report said.
The Marshall Islands, a nation of 29 coral atolls and five single islands stretches across 800,000 square kilometres (500,000 square miles) of Pacific Ocean but has only about 116 square kilometres of dry land, most of which is not more than a metre above the high tide mark.
Muller said the government is asking donors to put up climate change funding to help his country forestall pending floods.
The plan is to build a five-kilometre seawall on the leeward coast of Majuro Atoll for shore protection as well as to landfill small bays to increase landmass as a buffer against rising sea levels and high waves during storms.
Nearly half of the country's 55,000 population live in Majuro where few homes are more than 10 metres from the ocean and many are considerably closer.
The floods in December 2008 resulted from exceptionally high tides which peaked at the same time as powerful waves generated by storms at sea surged ashore to inundate many parts of Majuro's eastern coastline.
From his UN office, Muller has been pushing for access to billions of dollars in promised climate-change aid for vulnerable countries.
But, he said, not much of the pledged money has flowed to the countries that most need it.
"We have only a short window of opportunity for accessing these funds," he said. "The money pledged is only for two-to-three years. We need to move fast."
The 20-million dollars towards the protective seawall was only an "initial" amount to get the protection work going and additional funding would be required.
The Marshall Islands, the scene of the US nuclear weapons tests in the 1950s, was a US-administered trust territory until becoming independent in 1986 under a Compact of Free Association between the two countries.
It is nearly 70 percent underwritten by donor grants, with two countries providing the bulk of funding -- the United States injects about 75 million dollars a year into government coffers, and Taiwan, which has diplomatic ties with the Marshalls, adds another 10 million dollars.
The meagre national budget for the current fiscal year is only 130 million dollars, down five percent on the previous year to reflect declining tax revenue, partly as a result of cutbacks at the US Army's Kwajalein missile range.
UNEP 1 Nov 10;
Nairobi, Kenya, 1 November 2010 - What do solar loans, sustainable tourism, tea plantations, forests in Panama and African financiers have in common?
The answer is quite simple: all are part of the global solution to climate change, and part of the United Nation's Environment Programme's "30 ways in 30 Days" initiative, launched today.
From today, a month out from the start of the UN Climate Convention meeting in Cancun, Mexico, UNEP will release online case studies to show that solutions to climate change are available and can be copied and scaled up around the world. The examples are just the tip of the iceberg and highlights in terms of existing successful climate initiatives and programmes.
UNEP's aim is to show that across the world, in myriad ways, from community-based programmes to entrepreneurial endeavours, solutions are available to help confront the challenges of climate change and to help countries, communities and businesses move towards low-emission climate-resilient growth.
More could be done if governments, corporations and communities scaled up this work. Every country and many institutions have their own 30 success stories to demonstrate that action is being taken across the globe, initiatives that with funding and technology support can be scaled up dramatically.
One of the case studies featured is "Solar Loans for Solar Homes" in India where more than 60 per cent of Indian households have no access to reliable electricity supplies and depend on kerosene for light and on burning dung and wood for heat.
UNEP's Solar Loan Programme, a partnership involving the UN Foundation, Shell Foundation and two of India's largest banking groups, helped turn on lights in homes that had previously not had them, accelerated market penetration of solar lights in the Indian countryside, and inspired several similar initiatives in India and elsewhere.
Other stories coming up are the "Green Passports" for sustainable tourism projects showing how you can be a "green traveler", the "greening" of tea plantations in East Africa, carbon financing in Africa and its massive potential for sustainable development and successful reforestation in Panama giving new evidence of the many opportunities and benefits from sustainable forests.
To find out more about these innovative programmes, go to www.unep.org/unite/30ways today. Come back to the site once a day until into December to discover all 30 ways in which UNEP is working with governments and communities around the world on projects, big and small, that put together could save our climate.
30 Ways in 30 Days website: http://www.unep.org/unite/30ways/
Nina Chestney PlanetArk 2 Nov 10;
Ever wondered how one person could save the planet from the effects of climate change? A British-made computer game on trial release on Monday creates different ways of doing just that.
'Fate of the World' puts the Earth's future in players' hands, placing them in charge of an international environmental body which could save the world from the effects of rising greenhouse gas emissions or let it perish by continuing to rely on emissions-heavy fossil fuels.
Through different scenarios, players can explore options such as geoengineering and alternative energy sources to save the planet from rising temperatures, dwindling natural resources and a growing population over the next 200 years.
A rough cut of the game will be followed by a three-month feedback period from players, with final release due in February next year.
Created by Oxford-based games developer Red Redemption, the game departs from more mainstream action games by using data from real climate models and advice from scientists and economists in Britain and the United States.
"Science data is often inaccessible and we are trying to put players in a position of power and connected with the issues," Gobion Rowlands, Red Redemption's founder and chairman told Reuters.
"We are not pushing one particular agenda. There are a range of options, including nuclear power and renewable energy. We are not saying one route is the best route," he added.
The firm has an advisory board which includes some climate change experts. Myles Allen, head of climate dynamics at Oxford University, contributed the prediction models in the game.
This year, a series of apparent flaws in climate science and the failure of U.N. talks to reach an international deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions appeared to undermine the public's interest in climate change.
However, games centered on sustainability and human rights have been growing in popularity and are welcomed by green groups as a way of raising awareness.
Using climate change as inspiration for entertainment shows the issue has permeated global culture, which can only be a good thing, Friends of the Earth's head of climate Mike Childs said. "We need creative industries to work with these big issues as the results can be immensely powerful and can help us to understand what a sustainable future looks and feels like," said Fiona Bennie, senior sustainability advisor at UK-based non-governmental organization Forum for the Future.
Save the world from climate change -- by computer
Beatrice Debut Yahoo News 15 Nov 10;
OXFORD, England (AFP) – Computer gamers who like a challenge can now take on one of the toughest around: saving the entire planet, this time from climate change.
Billed as a strategy game with a social conscience, "Fate of the World" sees players try to protect the world's climate and resources while managing a growing population demanding more power, food and living space.
"'Fate of the World' is a scenario-based game where you run Earth for 200 years and you save it or potentially destroy it. The whole power is in your hands," said the game's British inventor Gobion Rowlands.
The player takes charge as head of the fictional Global Environment Organisation (GEO). They can impose policies such as banning logging in the Amazon rainforest, making all Europe's public transport run on electricity or slapping a one-child policy on the whole of Asia.
However, such power comes with grave consequences.
If, for example, you decide to bring down the birth rate to protect natural resources, the workforce could plunge and people could be forced to work until 80, triggering unrest against the GEO.
Gamers see the impact of their decisions: orangutans are saved from extinction, global temperatures drop by a degree; however, bad moves could see Europe battered by floods, or Africa ravaged by war.
"Even if they choose to destroy the world, they still learn more about the subject," said Rowlands, the 35-year-old head of video games developer Red Redemption, which employs 15 people at its base in Oxford, southern England.
The game was based on scientific, economic and demographic data from sources such as NASA, the United Nations and Oxford University.
"Fate of the World" was developed in partnership with academics working under Oxford University climate change expert Doctor Myles Allen.
The game "allows people to experience the decisions we are likely to confront and makes clear there are no easy answers", Allen said.
"Fate of the World" is a sequel to Red Redemption's 2007 "Climate Challenge" game produced by the BBC, which focused only on Europe.
Despite its straightforward graphics, the game has been welcomed by environmental and development groups, which were on board throughout the process.
"This game offers a new way of telling the climate change story and helps us to reach new audiences," said Ged Barker, the British digital campaigns leader for the Oxfam aid agency.
"Those who play the game will learn about climate change... without having to read lots of material that they might find boring."
The collaboration between Red Redemption, which is on its fifth computer game, and non-governmental organisations could go further. Rowlands is trying to negotiate a deal whereby a share of the profits go to their coffers.
A taster version is available to download now. The full version will cost 20 pounds when it is released in February.
The French, Spanish and German versions come out in March.
Slamet Riyadi, Associated Press Yahoo News 2 Nov 10;
MOUNT MERAPI, Indonesia – Deafening explosions of hot gas rattled evacuees miles (kilometers) from an Indonesian volcano Monday, the latest eruption in a deadly week. The country reported increased rumblings at 21 other active volcanoes, raising questions about what's causing the uptick along some of the world's most volatile fault lines.
No casualties were reported in Mount Merapi's new blast, which came as Indonesia struggles to respond to an earthquake-generated tsunami that devastated a remote chain of islands. The two disasters unfolding on opposite ends of the country have killed nearly 500 people and strained the government's emergency response network. In both events, the military has been called in to help.
Merapi has killed 38 people since it started erupting a week ago. Monitoring officials have also raised alert levels at some of the 129 active volcanoes in Indonesia, with two under watch for possible eruption within two weeks and 19 showing increased activity — more than double the usual number on the watch list, an official said.
Indonesia, a vast archipelago of 235 million people, is prone to earthquakes and volcanos because it sits along the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a horseshoe-shaped string of faults that lines the western and eastern Pacific. Scientists could not say for certain what was causing the increased volcanic activity, though two theorized the earth's tectonic plates could be realigning and one noted growing evidence that volcanos can affect one other.
About 69,000 villagers have been evacuated from the area around Merapi's once-fertile slopes — now blanketed by gray ash — in central Java, 250 miles (400 kilometers) east of Jakarta, the capital.
Booming explosions sounded during Monday's eruption, which shot massive clouds from the glowing cauldron and sent ash cascading nearly four miles (six kilometers) down the southeastern slopes, said Subrandrio, an official in charge of monitoring Merapi's activity.
Even in the crowded government camps, miles (kilometers) away from the mountain, the sound of the explosions sent evacuees scurrying for shelter.
More than 800 miles (1,300 kilometers) to the west, meanwhile, a C-130 transport plane, six helicopters and four motorized boats were ferrying aid to the most distant corners of the Mentawai Islands, where last week's tsunami destroyed hundreds of homes, schools, churches and mosques. The tsunami death toll stood at 431 Monday, the National Disaster Management Agency said on its website.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said relief efforts must be sped up, expressing dismay that it took days for aid to reach the isolated islands, though he acknowledged that violent storms were largely to blame.
Last week's killer wave was triggered a 7.7-magnitude earthquake along the same fault that caused the 2004 temblor and tsunami that killed 230,000 people in a dozen countries. The fault line, which runs the length of the west coast of Sumatra island, is the meeting point of the two of the Earth's dozen major plates, which have been pushing against and under each other for millions of years, causing huge stresses to build up.
Both earthquakes and volcanos can result from the release of these stresses. As plates slide against or under each other, molten rock can break the surface via a volcano or the energy can be released in an earthquake.
The government has raised alert levels of 21 other volcanos to the second- and third- highest levels in the last two months because they have shown an increase in activity, said Syamsul Rizal, a state volcanologist, said Monday. Many of those are already rumbling and belching out heavy black ash.
Indonesia has several volcanos smoldering at any given time, but another government volcanologist, Gede Swantika, said that normally only five to 10 would be at the third-highest alert level — which indicates an increase in seismic activity and visible changes in the crater. It is rare for any to be at second-highest — which signifies an eruption is possible within two weeks.
He said monitors noticed more volcanos were exhibiting seismic activity starting Sept. 2.
Geophysicist Pall Einarsson of the University of Iceland said that such an increase could be an indication that some of the volcanos — if any are very close — could be affecting one another. He said this idea is a new one for volcanologists, but they are increasingly seeing evidence of interplay between neighboring mountains.
Geologist Brent McInnes said as he hadn't seen the raw data but would find such a rash of volcanic activity significant.
"If it's true that there are over 20 volcanos demonstrating increased levels of seismic activity, then that is something we should pay attention to," said McInnes, a professor at Australia's Curtin University who has done extensive volcanic research in Indonesia.
He said such an increase could indicate "a major plate restructuring" — a major shift in the plates' position, rather than simply the usual jostling. "That would be significant."
But seismologists also caution that while eruption patterns can be studied, neither earthquakes nor volcanos can be predicted with any precision.
"My theory is that it is just a normal, random fluctuation of volcanic activity," said John Ebel, professor of geophysics at Boston University.
___
Associated Press writers Thomas Wagner in London, Achmad Ibrahim in the Mentawai islands and Kay Johnson, Niniek Karmini, Irwan Firdaus, Ali Kotarumalos and Kristen Gelineau in Jakarta contributed to this report.
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