Best of our wild blogs: 12 Nov 10

Belly frog
from The annotated budak

Migrating Lanceolated Warbler crashed against glass door
from Bird Ecology Study Group

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Impose total ban on plastic bags, Selangor state urged

Elan Perumal and Stuart Michael The Star 12 Nov 10;

THE Selangor Government has been urged to impose a total ban on plastic bags.

Dr Shafie Abu Bakar (PR-Bangi) urged the state to seriously consider closing down industries directly or indirectly involved in producing plastic bags.

"Why should we allow the usage of plastic bags in the state after being fully aware that they pose a danger to the environment,'' he said, during the debate session.

At this juncture, Speaker Teng Chang Khim intervened by saying that the move would discourage investors.

Dr Shafie said that concern was misplaced as alternative industries could be encouraged.

He was speaking during the winding up by state tourism, consumerism and environment committee chairman Elizabeth Wong.

Wong, who described the idea as radical, said it was impossible to impose a total ban on plastic bags.

However, she said, the state's ‘No Plastic Bag Day' campaign on Saturdays had been well received by the people in Selangor.

Earlier during the question-and-answer session, Wong said that the ‘no plastic bags' campaign in Selangor had managed to save four million plastic bags up to October this year, and has garnered 83.6% support from the people.

In reply to a question from Lau Weng San (PR-Kampung Tunku), Wong said the 20 sen per plastic bag collected by the supermarkets under the campaign was channelled to corporate social responsibility programmes thoughout Selangor. They had collected more than RM220,000 from the sale of the plastic bags thus far.

A total of 74 supermarkets have been taking part in the ‘No Plastic Bag Day', which is observed every Saturday since the campaign began.

"We are looking to increase the days in the ‘no plastic bag day' to two from January 2011.

"In June, the Merdeka Centre which carried out a study shows that Selangorians are for this campaign with more than 80% supporting," said Wong.

No plastic rule may cost jobs
Ann Tan The Star 12 Nov 10;

GEORGE TOWN: Some 1,580 people may eventually lose their jobs as a result of the expansion of the no plastic bag ruling in Penang from Jan 1.

Malaysian Plastic Manufac­turers Association northern branch chairman Willy Tan said he expected those employed in the plastic bag manufacturing line by its members to lose their jobs.

“When consumers are not using our plastic bags every day next year, these jobs will vanish,” Tan said during a dialogue between 12 association representatives and Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng at the latter’s office in Komtar yesterday.

Merit Industries Sdn Bhd director E.E. Lim, whose company is a major plastic bag producer in Kamunting, said her sales to three hypermarkets in Penang had dropped from six million bags monthly to only three million.

“What are we going to eat when Penangites are no longer using plastic bags? The 20 sen penalty may be a small amount but it is not cheap to some people,” she said, referring to the amount shoppers had to pay for a plastic bag.

Association president Lim Kok Boon said the ruling would only burden the poor as they would have to pay 40 sen for each garbage bag to discard their rubbish.

“A shopping bag costs four sen each and they used to get it for free from hypermarkets and supermarkets. In the absence of plastic carrier bags, consumers will have to pay for bin liners and this will increase the usage of garbage bags.

“A study in Ireland, the first country to stop giving out free plastic bags, found a 90% drop in plastic bag usage in one month but the usage of garbage bags increased by 400% instead,” he said.

Kok Boon said plastic shopping bags were also more convenient for consumers to tie up their garbage.

Guan Eng asked the association for a report on the possible impact of the ruling to the industry, adding that Penang wanted to know the amount of reduction in revenue and job losses.

“We are not banning plastic bags but we want Penangites to reduce their usage. This is a policy we must undertake and I don’t deny it’ll be a political cost to us,” he said, adding that consumers would take as many shopping bags as they pleased when they were free but being charged for it would make them think of the costs involved.

All hypermarkets, supermarkets, departmental stores, pharmacies, fast food restaurants, nasi kandar outlets and convenience stores, including chain stores and those at petrol kiosks, in Penang will have to adhere to the ruling daily from Jan 1 next year.

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Mt Merapi eruptions cause monkey exodus

Antara 11 Nov 10;

Boyolali (ANTARA News) - A few thousand monkeys had moved from the slopes of erupting Mount Merapi to those of Mount Merbabu in Central Java Province over the past week, a villager said.

Parto told ANTARA News on Thursday that the exodus was likely triggered by the eruptions` impacts that had threatened those animals` food reserves.

This 80-year-old resident of Blumbangsari hamlet, Samiran village, Selo sub-district, Boyolali district, Central Java, said he always saw the monkeys crossing his village`s streets to the Mt Merbabu slopes.

Parto said those brown monkeys moved from their original habitat on the slopes of Mount Merapi to Mount Merbabu because they might have got problems with food reserves as a result of volcanic ash.

The monkeys were also likely unable to keep living with the heat of the smoldering Mount Merapi`s hot clouds of ash and lava, he said.

"The monkeys have been seen moving to the Mount Merbabu`s slopes over this past week. They cross the main road of Selo-Magelang route which has been part of the mountain`s areas," he said.

Another villager named Slamet Sutanto, 40, said he also saw the exodus of Mount Merapi`s monkeys on the main road. Many crossed the road on their way to the Mount Merbabu`s slopes.

Those monkeys ate remaining fruits and vegetables available on the left and right sides of the road, he said.

According to Head of Mount Merbabu National Park Dulhadi, the exodus of Mount Merapi monkeys was triggered by the running out of food stocks in their habitat.

The heat of Mount Merapi`s hot clouds also forced them to find a new habitat, he said.
Mount Merapi, located on the border between two provinces, lies geographically close to Yogyakarta but is officially part of Central Java.

The death toll of the volcano`s fatal eruptions on October 26 and November 5 had so far reached 151.

The volcano`s eruptions spewed hot clouds of ash and lava into the air and sent lava down its many slopes.

Besides killing and injuring several hundred people, the Mount Merapi eruptions had also damaged 867 hectares of forest on the volcano`s slopes in Sleman District, Yogyakarta, with the losses estimated at Rp33 billion.

The damaged forest areas consisted of Mt Merapi National Park, community forests and local people`s plantation areas

Mount Merapi is one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia, whose eruptions have regularly been detected since 1548.(*)

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Six die after eating turtle meat in Micronesia

(AFP) Google News 12 Nov 10;

WELLINGTON — Six people died and more than 90 fell ill after eating endangered turtles in Micronesia, the Pacific nation's government said Friday.

The deaths, which included four children, occurred after a feast on the island of Murilo in mid-October where the rare hawksbill turtle was consumed, the Federated States of Micronesia's public information office said.

It said government health officials and the World Health Organization found the deaths were a result of chelonitoxism, a type of poisoning caused by biotoxins in turtle flesh for which there is no known antidote.

Hawksbill turtles were a species known to cause chelonitoxism and children were particularly vulnerable to the condition, the government said in a statement.

It said health authorities had recommended a complete ban on eating turtles and their eggs as a result of the deaths.

"Though this incident has come to an end, future incidents are certain to occur unless action is taken to alter turtle-eating behavior," the statement said.

The hawksbill turtle was the original source of tortoiseshell and is protected under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES).

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Sterile mosquitoes use sex to kill in dengue trial

* Genetically sterile mosquitoes designed to kill species
* Early trial shows 80 percent cut in population in 6 months
* Dengue infects 50 million people a year, kills 25,000
Kate Kelland, Reuters AlertNet 11 Nov 10;

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - British scientists have created genetically sterile mosquitoes which use sex to kill off others in their species, and researchers say early field trials suggest the idea could help to halt the rapid spread of dengue fever.

Scientists from a firm called Oxitec ran a small trial with the Mosquito Research and Control Unit (MRCU) in the Cayman Islands in the Caribbean. This found that releasing 3 million of the genetically altered bugs into a small area managed to cut the species population by 80 percent in six months.

Dengue fever, a disease which causes severe flu-like symptoms and can kill, is spread through the bite of infected female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.

"The idea is based on releasing sterile males who will go out and mate with wild females," said Luke Alphey, Oxitec's chief scientist and co-founder.

"One of the main advantages is that the males actively look for the females -- that's what they are programmed to do."

Larvae are produced but most die before they hatch and the rest survive only a short time as mosquitoes.

The World Health Organisation estimates there are 50 million cases of dengue fever a year, of which 25,000 are fatal, and about 2.5 billion people -- two-fifths of the world's population -- are at risk, mostly in Africa and southeast Asia.

There is no vaccine or treatment for dengue, and experts say innovative ways of dealing with its spread are urgently needed, since global incidence has risen sharply in recent decades.

French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis is one of various groups seeking to develop dengue vaccines. It is testing its candidate in late stage clinical trials, but experts say it could be many years before a vaccine is on the market.

Alphey's team bred a version of the male Aedes aegypti mosquito which can attract and mate with females but is genetically modified to die if it is not fed on a certain antidote, in this case an antibiotic called tetracycline.

"We put a segment of DNA into the mosquito which means it will die unless it gets the antidote," said Alphey told reporters at a briefing in London on Thursday.

"By giving them tetracycline in the lab, we can keep them alive and breed large numbers of them, but when we release the males into the environment and they mate with wild females, all the offspring inherit a copy of the gene that kills them if they don't get the antidote...so they die."

Most of the offspring die as larvae, he said, but even those who manage to hatch face a very short life.

Angela Harris of the Cayman MRCU, said she was very encouraged by the results of the trial, which was conducted and monitored during April to October this year.

"This kind of technology really has a place for reducing dengue and having an impact on human health," she said.

"One of dengue's main problems is that there's no cure, there's no vaccine and there are no drugs you can take to avoid it or get better from it. So the only control you can really come by ... is killing the mosquitoes and making sure they're not there to transmit the virus in the first place."

Alphey said his Oxford-based firm is in talks with officials in various countries, including Malaysia, Brazil and Panama about conducting further and larger trials.

FACTBOX-Dengue fever a risk for 2.5 billion people
Reuters AlertNet 11 Nov 10;

Nov 11 (Reuters) - British scientists have created genetically sterile mosquitoes who use sex to kill off others in their species and researchers say early field trials suggest the idea could help halt the spread of dengue fever. [nLDE6AA1FD]

Here are some facts about dengue fever:

* Dengue is transmitted by the bite of an Aedes aegypti mosquito infected with any one of the four dengue viruses. Symptoms appear in 3 to 14 days after the infective bite.

* Dengue fever is a severe, flu-like illness that affects babies, young children and adults.

* It is often known colloquially as bone-break fever for the severe muscle and joint pains it induces, the disease causes death only when it develops into a more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever.

* Early clinical diagnosis of dengue haemorrhagic fever and careful clinical management by experienced doctors and nurses often saves lives.

* Global incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades.

* Around 2.5 billion people -- two fifths of the world's population -- are now at risk from dengue. The World Health Organisation (WHO) currently estimates there may be 50 million dengue infections worldwide every year.

* With no specific treatment for the four viruses, health officials focus on eradicating mosquitoes to prevent infections.

* More than 70 percent of the disease burden is in southeast Asia and the western Pacific area. Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean are much less affected.

* According to the WHO, the incidence and severity of disease are increasing rapidly in Latin America and the Caribbean.

* An increase in international air travel is facilitating the rapid global movement of dengue viruses. This increases the risk of dengue haemorrhagic fever epidemics by introducing new dengue viruses into susceptible populations.

* French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis is one of various groups and firms seeking to develop a dengue vaccine and is currently testing it in late stage clinical trials.

SOURCE: Reuters/World Health Organisation.

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World Scientists In $600 Million Plan To Boost Rice Yield

Ho Binh Minh PlanetArk 12 Nov 10;

Scientists launched a $600 million global initiative on Wednesday to raise rice yields and reduce the impact of rice production on the environment, which they said could also help 150 million people escape poverty by 2035.

The Global Rice Science Partnership will oversee research over the next five years to boost yields and breed stronger strains that can resist flooding and threats from climate change.

The scheme, led by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and partners, was launched in Hanoi as rice scientists, executives, policymakers and traders from nearly 70 countries met to discuss research, demand and trading and currency risks.

"Given that rice is a staple food for more than half the global population and in most of the developing world, there is no question that availability of rice is equated with food security," said Robert Zeigler, director general of the Manila-based IRRI.

The new research is also aimed at cutting emissions of greenhouse gases from rice production by an amount equivalent to more than 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide by adopting improved irrigation methods and avoiding deforestation.

With higher yields, farmers would not have to expand their fields into new areas, and that could save more than 1.2 million hectares (3 million acres) of forest, wetlands and other natural ecosystems by 2035, the consultative group said.

Annual funding for rice research by donors would rise to $139 million by 2015 from around $100 million next year to help realize the scheme's goals.

By boosting supplies and lowering food prices, the initiative should help lift people out of poverty, perhaps as many as 72 million by 2020, Zeigler said.

In addition to IRRI, the initiative includes two French organizations and a research center in Japan plus hundreds of other partners from governments, the private sector and civil society.

(Editing by Alan Raybould)

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Organic Questioned As Food Challenges Mount

Gerard Wynn PlanetArk 12 Nov 10;

The world may need new ecological farming approaches besides organic food, embracing technologies which will help feed more people with limited land and water, scientists say.

Organic farming bans the use of yield-boosting, manufactured, inorganic fertilizers as well as industrial pesticides and genetically modified (GM) crops.

Its supporters say the world produces enough food, and the main problems are affordability, accessibility and diets, where meat production uses up more land. They also point to dwindling resources to produce manufactured soil nutrients and an associated rise in costs.

A rise in food prices toward 2008 peaks is feeding a polarized debate on whether African farmers should use non-organic inputs to haul their way out of hunger stoked by that crisis two years ago.

Adding "a reasonable amount" of fertilizer to maize crops in Africa meant "the difference between starving and not only having enough to eat but enough to sell to get some money," said Gordon Conway, at Imperial College London.

"The organic movement has to evolve, to recognize the enormity of the challenge we've got, and look more seriously at sound, sustainable ecological approaches which make minimal use of inorganic fertilizers, industrial pesticides and GM."

That suggestion is disputed by organic advocates who say encouraging more use of such "external inputs," not recycled from within the farming system such as animal manure or leaves, made poorer farmers more vulnerable.

"In a world where those external inputs are going to get scarcer and more expensive it would be the kiss of death to African farmers to do that, not enlightened or sensible," said Peter Melchett, policy director at Britain's Soil Association.

Melchett saw a threat not from stagnant productivity but from relying on fertilizers at a time of dwindling global supplies of natural gas, used to make inorganic nitrogen, and of mined phosphorus.

The International Energy Agency forecast on Tuesday a 10-year global gas glut.

The world population is forecast to grow to about 9 billion in 2050 from 6.9 billion now.

Rising food prices is a global issue, stoking inflation at a time of weak economic growth and deflation fears, and throwing government funding into agricultural research and technology.

European Union state officials met in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the EU executive Commission's proposals to allow governments to decide whether to grow or ban GM crops. Many of the bloc's largest countries have publicly attacked the plans.

DOUBTS

Global organic food and drink sales reached $46 billion in 2007, treble 1999 levels, according to organic trade body estimates, which also put the U.S. market at nearly 4 percent of all U.S. food.

A U.N. report in July hailed such growth as an example of market forces valuing the diversity of wildlife. By avoiding pesticides and herbicides, which kill weeds and insects, organic farming fosters biodiversity.

However, some experts cast doubt on those benefits. They say the lower yields of organic agriculture mean if it were adopted more widely the global farmed area would have to rise to compensate, threatening forests on the other side of the planet.

"The sophistication of the argument today is to take into account that trade off," said Tim Benton from Leeds University.

"You give the impression this piece of (organic) land is better, but perhaps the argument that's not been made is if this piece of land is better then somewhere else a piece of land is worse."

He favored a popular "conservation agriculture" approach, where farmers tilled the soil less, if at all, and in that way used less fuel but still used some fertilizer and herbicides.

One emerging ecological technique spreading in Africa is an "evergreen" approach, using a particular tree which sheds its leaves through the maize growing season, fertilizing without shading the crop.

The tree is leguminous, meaning it can produce its own nitrogen, a vital plant nutrient, which it adds to the soil for the crop growing beneath when it sheds its leaves.

"Since we've now developed mass propagation systems we can work with millions of African farmers planting these trees," said Dennis Garrity, head of the World Agroforestry Center, who estimated that 4.5 million African farmers used the approach now and that figure could rise four-fold.

Inorganic fertilizers would complement the approach, which he said also helped trap the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the trees, a focus ahead of a U.N. climate conference which starts this month in Cancun, Mexico.

(Editing by Janet Lawrence)

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Adding Iron to Ocean Would Backfire, Algae Study Suggests

Charles Q. Choi livescience.com Yahoo News 12 Nov 10;

Fertilizing the oceans with iron - a tactic that "geoengineers" have proposed to fight global warming - could inadvertently spur the growth of toxic microbes, warn scientists who analyzed water samples from past iron-fertilization experiments.

Toxin-producing algae that thrive on iron and can contaminate marine life are more widespread than suspected, the researchers said. The finding could impact proposed iron-fertilization projects.

"This work definitely reveals a wrinkle in those plans," said researcher Kenneth Coale, director of Moss Landing Marine Laboratories in California. "It is much easier to break an ecosystem than it is to fix one."

To combat rising levels of carbon dioxide - a "greenhouse gas" that traps heat from the sun - some researchers have suggested seeding the oceans with iron. That, they say, would help spur the growth of the marine plants known as phytoplankton that naturally suck carbon dioxide from the air. [Should We Geoengineer Earth's Climate?]

However, recent findings suggest that even a massive phytoplankton bloom would result in only a modest intake of carbon dioxide. Now Coale and fellow researcher Mary Silver find that iron-fertilization projects could also trigger rapid growth of harmful algae.

"Large areas of the ocean have very little iron in them - that's why the waters there are so clear and blue, because these plants can't live there to cloud the waters," said Silver, a biological oceanographer at the University of California, Santa Cruz. "It's the same as you see with plants in a garden - if they don't have enough nitrogen and phosphorus, they can't grow. If these ocean plants don't have any iron, they can't grow."

Algae known as Pseudo-nitschia generate toxic domoic acid. These diatoms occur regularly in coastal waters, and when their populations boom, the toxin can contaminate marine wildlife, poisoning the birds and marine mammals that feed on polluted fish, and closing shellfish and sardine fisheries.

These algae were once thought limited to coastal waters. Now researchers find they are common in the open sea as well.

"There was nothing in the science journals suggesting that such toxin-producing algae are so widespread in the open sea, nor documenting that they can get very abundant," Silver told LiveScience.

Normally, Pseudo-nitschia cells are sparse in the high seas, "so they don't have much effect," Silver said. "But these species are incredibly responsive to iron, often becoming dominant in algal blooms that result from iron fertilization. Any iron input might cause a bloom of the cells that make the toxin."

In 2007, on a research cruise to study iron chemistry in the Gulf of Alaska, Silver and her colleagues often discovered Pseudo-nitschia in samples collected at sea. Analyses back in the lab revealed the associated toxin was present, too.

Silver then teamed up with Coale to analyze old water samples collected during two iron-fertilization experiments conducted in 1995 and 2002.

"We thought the toxin would have broken down, but it was still there," Silver said.

The researchers also investigated water samples from three expeditions in the North Pacific independent from the iron-fertilization experiments. Their analysis indicated that waters throughout the Pacific naturally contain Pseudo-nitschia linked with neurotoxin.

Oceanic blooms of this algae probably occur due to iron deposited by volcanic eruptions, dust storms and other airborne sources, Silver said.

"It is a natural phenomenon and likely has been for millions of years," Silver said. "But those are sporadic occurrences. To do iron enrichment on a large scale could be dangerous, because, if it causes blooms of Pseudo-nitschia, the toxin might get into the food chain, as it does in the coastal zone."

"We should have viable strategies to remove carbon from the atmosphere," Coale told LiveScience. "Iron fertilization is still one option in our toolbox, but now the label on the box must read, 'Caution, may produce harmful algal blooms.'"

The scientists detailed their findings online Nov. 8 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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Losses from natural disasters could triple by 2100-report

* Losses may triple to $185 billion a year-study
* U.N., World Bank urge focus on preventing disasters
Alister Doyle, Reuters AlertNet 11 Nov 10;

OSLO, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Global losses from natural disasters could triple to $185 billion a year by 2100, excluding the impact of climate change, according to a report, which calls for a shift in focus from relief work to preventative measures.

The joint report by the United Nations and the World Bank, published on Thursday, said the number of people at risk of storms or earthquakes in large cities could double to 1.5 billion by 2050. Simple preventative measures could curb losses from natural disasters, it said, citing Bangladesh's success in building shelters to protect against cyclones.

The study of natural hazards including earthquakes, heatwaves and floods called for investment in everything from improving weather forecasts, to re-painting steel bridges to avoid rust, and keeping storm drains clear of debris.

"Preventing deaths and destruction from disasters pays, if done right," according to the 250-page report by 70 experts entitled "Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters".

"Annual global losses from natural disasters could triple to $185 billion by the end of this century, even without calculating the impact of climate change," it said.

"Losses will triple primarily because you have economic growth and ... more people and property located in richer areas. As people get richer they have more to lose," lead author Apurva Sanghi told a telephone news conference.

Damage from more powerful cyclones likely to be caused by global warming could add $28-$68 billion to the annual bill, it said. It did not give a total for possible costs linked to climate change, such as desertification or rising sea levels.

It said about 3.3 million people had died from natural hazards in the past 40 years, or 82,500 a year, with most in poor nations.

RENT CAPS A HAZARD

The report urged countries from the United States to India to review caps on building rentals. Rent controls in Mumbai meant "property owners have neglected maintenance for decades, so buildings crumble in heavy rains," it said.

It urged better protection of key infrastructure, such as hospitals. In some cases, buildings can have dual money-saving roles -- such as schools in Bangladesh that act as cyclone shelters or roadways in Malaysia that act as drains, it said.

And it urged spending on "environmental buffers", such as mangroves that can protect coastlines against storms or tsunamis. Forests can help prevent mudslides and mute the effect of floods, it said.

World Bank Group President Robert Zoellick said the report made a "compelling case" showing how nations can curb their vulnerability to natural hazards and free up resources for economic development.

"The news is not all gloomy. Bangladesh has been extremely successful in reducing the number of deaths from cyclones" partly by building shelters in recent decades, Sanghi said.

For Reuters latest environment blogs, click on: http://blogs.reuters.com/environment/ (Editing by Susan Fenton)

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China's soaring emissions challenge climate split

* Emerging economies' emissions soar, skew climate models
* Strain for U.N. talks on sharing burden of curbs
* Washington sees unfair "Berlin Wall" divide
Alister Doyle, Reuters AlertNet 11 Nov 10;

OSLO, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Soaring greenhouse gas emissions in China and other emerging nations are eroding rich nations' historical responsibility for causing global warming, and this could complicate U.N. talks starting in Mexico this month.

Washington says an unfair "Berlin Wall" separates a group of 40 industrialised countries, which are expected to cut emissions sharply by 2020, from other countries led by China which are due only to slow the rise in their emissions by 2020.

Analysts see little prospect of an end to that divide, enshrined in the 1992 Climate Convention, partly because Washington itself is not leading the way with cuts meant to avert more floods, heatwaves, droughts and rising sea levels.

Annual U.N. climate talks in Cancun, Mexico, from Nov. 29 to Dec. 10, are likely to hear more insistent calls than in the past for a new scale of responsibilities to reflect the rising influence of nations such as China, India and Brazil since 1992.

"Developing country emissions, especially of China and India, are at the high end of the range" projected in a 2007 U.N. report that is the main government guide for global action, said Niklas Hoehne, of climate consultancy Ecofys.

"But if you look at it in terms of per capita emissions, the story is still very different. China is around the world average and still a factor of four smaller than the U.S.," he said.

STELLAR GROWTH

The rise in greenhouse gas emissions in many emerging nations, caused by rapid economic growth that is reducing poverty -- a top global priority -- contrasts with a fall in many rich countries, caused by economic crisis.

Under the 1992 Convention, 40 industrialised nations in Annex One, with a fifth of the world's population, are meant to cut emissions first because they have stoked global warming by burning most fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution.

As the years go by, their proportion of total emissions is falling.

U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern said in a speech last month that a "new paradigm" was needed since developed nations now account for just 45 percent of world emissions, a share that is set to fall to 35 percent by 2030.

He said China had overtaken Russia as the number two emitter of greenhouse gases throughout history behind the United States, and had eclipsed the per capita emissions of France.

Several analysts said Stern's calls were premature.

"It's a bit too early" to talk of a big shift of responsibility, said Susanne Droege, head of research in global issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

She said Washington wanted to distract attention from its failure to legislate cuts in emissions by focusing on the next generation of emitters. President Barack Obama's hopes of making cuts have been derailed by Republican mid-term election gains.

Terry Barker, Director of the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research in England, said faster-than-expected growth in emerging nations meant those nations would have to bring forward their carbon curbing plans by a year or two.

"It brings forward the time when developing countries, if they are serious about achieving the targets, will have to start reducing their emissions," he said.

Countries like Singapore and South Korea long ago shot past the per capita emissions levels of some of the 40 nations, from Australia to Russia, in Annex One. Developing nations fear they would have less influence if split up.

Some experts said it seemed a stretch to say that China had overtaken France in per capita emissions -- Stern did not define what emissions he meant, but carbon emissions from energy use are the easiest to estimate.

Among published estimates for 2009, BP plc statistics on carbon dioxide emissions from energy put France on 6.3 tonnes per capita and China on 5.6 tonnes. The gap is large, but China is growing rapidly.

The OECD forecasts Chinese gross domestic product growth of 11.1 percent in 2010 and 9.7 percent in 2011 [ID:nLDE64P0SP].

The 2007 report by the U.N. panel of climate scientists set out a scenario under which Annex One nations cut emissions by betweeen 25 and 40 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels to avoid the worst of global warming.

In the same scenario, poor nations would merely have to have a "substantial deviation" so that their emissions increase more slowly than gross domestic product by 2020.

(Editing by Tim Pearce)

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