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'Mother' plants used to clone trees for wood products, to avoid land clearing
Grace Chua Straits Times 14 Aug 10;
AT THE BioForest plantation on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi stand half a million trees, uniformly straight and tall.
The white teak, sengon and acacia trees, whose wood is used for furniture, plywood and paper pulp, were not grown in a nursery. Instead, they were cloned from fast-growing 'mother' plants in a Singapore laboratory nearly 2,000km away.
Because they mature one to two years faster than ordinary plantation stock, these high-yield trees offer an alternative to clearing land for plantations, say BioForest researchers.
Such deforestation involves cutting down trees that are an important sink for the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, and could hasten climate change.
And land for plantations may well become scarce as Indonesia this year announced a two-year moratorium, starting next January, on issuing new forest concessions. The moratorium is part of a US$1 billion (S$1.36 billion) deal with Norway, in which the Nordic state will pay Indonesia to cut carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.
The BioForest start-up began in 2006 as a joint venture between Temasek Life Sciences Ventures - the commercialisation arm of Temasek Life Sciences Laboratory (TLL) - and Singapore-based wood-products maker Kim Hong Seng Regional.
The lab's researchers hit upon the idea of propagating these tree species because of their commercial value, and selected the Sulawesi plantation site for its soil quality and location, said TLL chief operating officer Peter Chia.
In a process that is kept a trade secret, trees whose strong suit is growing fast - or being drought- or disease-resistant - are genetically analysed to suss out their strengths, and then cloned in a tissue culture lab.
'It's like a photocopying machine,' Mr Chia said.
In conventional cloning, a cutting is taken from a tree branch or stem at a particular stage of maturity.
But no cuttings are needed in this tree factory. It can use a fragment as small as a twig or a leaf, and clone the clone, so that theoretically, a million plants can be derived from a single twig in a year in this exponential process.
BioForest also ensures genetic diversity by picking different individual trees as the original mother plant every few months.
'Starter' batches of young plants are produced in Singapore, and further 'photocopies' are made and cultivated in a lab and nursery at the Sulawesi site. Conditions are controlled so that the plants are protected from pests and harsh weather.
And by 2012, BioForest's first batch of 10,000 white teak trees will be delivered to an Indonesian plywood mill.
Now that the 500ha plantation is filled, newer seedlings are sold to other plantation companies. They fetch a premium as they take just five to six years to grow to commercial size, compared with seven to eight years for normal trees.
Mr Chia said: 'Because the trees grow faster, you can get the same yield from a smaller piece of land. If you have less need for land, there's less pressure to clear new land.'
Commenting on the BioForest start-up, Dr Koh Lian Pin, an ecology research fellow at Switzerland's ETH Zurich, said it could alleviate pressures to clear tropical rainforests for timber in South-east Asia.
But he was worried that the same technology could cut costs of seedling material and expand profit margins for timber producers, thus inadvertently encouraging the industry to expand even faster.
'Technology is always a double-edged sword. The responsible stewardship of tropical rainforests requires not just better technology for timber production, but also a careful assessment and management of priorities among different segments of civil society, which would necessarily include economic development, environmental protection and the sustenance of people's livelihoods,' Dr Koh said.
Around the world, other tree species are also cloned for other purposes, such as pine and eucalyptus for timber in the United States, and poplar for reforestation in China, but BioForest is believed to be the only group doing it in Singapore.
Locally, TLL has been working with the National Parks Board (NParks) since June 2008 to grow 'rare and horticulturally interesting tree species' using the tree-cloning technique, said Dr Tan Puay Yok, head of research at NParks' Centre for Urban Greenery and Ecology.
Six species are currently being tested, including the Maniltoa lenticellata (Pink cascading bean tree), which is difficult to propagate using traditional methods.
Eco-cities are sprouting across China. Are they really green? What can keep them from taking off?
Grace Ng Straits Times 14 Aug 10;
CHONGMING ISLAND (CHINA): The Chen Family Village has been expecting a name change for years. It had even hoped that a world-famous mouse would move in after that happened.
The community of several thousand farmers on the east coast of Chongming Island - an hour's drive from Shanghai - was supposed to have become China's first environmentally friendly town by 2006, with the name of Dongtan Eco-City. It was also tipped to be the site of the first Disneyland theme park in mainland China.
But what student and part-time waitress Cai Yannan, 17, called a 'Cinderella moment' never came.
Four years of politicking and financial difficulties later, it is still just the sleepy Chen Family Village. Disney has also rejected it in favour of Shanghai's Pudong district.
'We have heard the eco-city is now in the beginning stages of construction,' mused Ms Cai.
'Meanwhile, I will go to Shanghai to study and seek a good life.'
Dongtan is not the only eco-city in China still waiting to take off.
There are now more than 40 sites across China which have embarked on the 'green city' endeavour, from Shenzhen in the south to Tangshan in the north. But many are struggling, because they started off with flashy environmental projects which over-ambitious local officials pushed for, but which require the right plans or political will to pull off.
Said Professor Niu Wenyuan of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, one of the country's top think-tanks: 'China has many projects that are eco-cities in name only - they lack substance.'
Western critics label as 'green-washing' the attempts by Chinese officials to rebrand urban centres as 'green cities' by slapping solar panels on buildings. This seems to be what China is practising as it races to be the first developing country to create a successful eco-city.
At a forum in Shanghai on sustainable cities last month, Vice-Housing Minister Qiu Baoxing reiterated the country's drive to be at the forefront of the creation of eco-cities in order to cope with the pressures of rapid urbanisation.
He highlighted eight projects, including a part of Shenzhen which is to become a 'smart city'; Rizhao of eastern Shandong province, which is already a veritable 'solar city'; the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City; and Dongtan.
Yet a closer look at some of China's eco-cities shows that many are struggling from 'lack of follow-through', said Beijing-based environment activist Wang Bao. 'They had big ideas - but did not plan how to implement such a massive project,' he said.
Dongtan is one such example. Mr Paul French, editor of a climate change website, pointed to the eco-city's internal feud between its master planner, British architect firm Arup, and the local authorities over who would pay for the project.
'Arup thought they were being brought in to design the project for a fee, and the Chinese side would build it. But the Chinese thought they would get a free eco-city,' he said.
Even so, villagers like farmer Chen Zhu, in his 60s, once believed political will would solve Dongtan's money woes.
'Dongtan Eco-City had top leaders' support,' he said, recalling that President Hu Jintao and then British prime minister Tony Blair had attended a signing ceremony in 2005.
Mr Chen lost hope after Dongtan's top backer, ex-Shanghai party secretary Chen Liangyu, was imprisoned for corruption in 2008.
'We knew the eco-city was doomed - no new leader would touch a project left by disgraced officials,' he said.
Huangbaiyu, another high-profile project backed by Ms Deng Nan, the daughter of late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, also floundered in the wake of poor implementation.
A poor rural community in north-east Liaoning province, Huangbaiyu was chosen in 2003 to be the site of China's first 'ecologically sustainable' model village.
New houses were to be built out of hay and pressed-earth bricks to cut energy costs. But only three of the 42 houses built after long delays had eco-friendly bricks. And each cost more than six times what a farmer could afford.
Wary of unrealistic plans which cannot be easily carried out, other projects have taken a different route by being 'selectively eco-friendly', said Mr Wang.
Some, like Meixi Lake District in central China's Hunan province and Tangshan's eco-city, have simply opted for eco-friendly residential properties and water conservation features - as well as lots of greenery, he said.
What works best is to start small - making use of the existing cities and making them green, argued Mr French. He pointed to Rizhao, a solar city whose goal was simply to convert as much as possible of its energy consumption to solar power.
A local solar panel company had struck a deal with the local government to offer solar panels at a fraction of the price to households.
'Now traffic signals, streetlights and most of the school lighting rely on solar energy,' said Mr French, adding that an impressive 99 per cent of households in the city centre have solar panels.
The lesson from Rizhao, he pointed out, is that 'it is better to start with manageable, small projects'.
'If you can't even make existing large cities green, what's the point of spending so much to build prestigious eco-cities from scratch which benefit only a small number of people?' he asked.
Still, a full-fledged, large-scale eco-city can still be achieved in China, argued Prof Niu.
The Singapore-Tianjin Eco-City has potential, he said. 'They are realistic and reasonable in their design.'
Mr Wang added: 'They have scientific methods of ensuring that the development is in line with their green targets - and the Singapore leaders frequently come to check the progress.'
Additional reporting by Lina Miao
Michael D'Oliveiro The Star 14 Aug 10;
Coral bleaching is a big concern for the country’s dive destinations right now, with 12 sites closed till October. How do we protect the reefs while making sure business is not badly affected?
The hot news recently has been the alarming rise of coral bleaching which led to the closure of 12 dive sites in the country. This move, by the order of the Marine Parks Department, will be enforced till the end of October.
If you are a diver, snorkeller or dive operator, this development may be cause for concern. But the concern is really on different levels.
For some, diving to see coral is just a past-time to enjoy whilst on holiday; for others, it’s their livelihood that is at stake. Whatever the impact may be, however, avid leisure diver Sukhdev Singh, 32, director of a pharmaceutical company, feels the government’s actions were necessary.
“We should do something now and reap the benefits later, rather than do nothing and see effects that are irreversible later,” he says.
Julia Tho, 31, senior copywriter, thinks that the duration of the closure for the sites is, in fact, too short.
“But at least it gives the reefs a chance to regenerate,” she concedes.
Tho disagrees with any complaint by the operators, saying that this is for the benefit of the industry and that “operators should take it in their stride.”
According to Aaron Kwok, a freelance dive instructor and underwater photographer, all the dive sites he has visited in Pulau Redang off Terengganu in the past four months have shown evidence of coral bleaching. Reef life has also been affected, but he feels that divers have reacted positively.
“I’m sure a lot of divers have been educated on the impact of humans on coral in such a way that they now know how to protect them,” says Kwok, rebuffing suggestions that there would be financial woes on the part of dive businesses.
“I just got a call today from a person who was concerned about coral bleaching and wanted to sign-up for an eco-diver certification,” he counters.
(Eco-diver courses run by Reef Check and PADI allow divers to monitor and do surveys of reefs for information gathering.)
Mohan Thanabalan, underwater photographer and instructor, has seen no impact on his business because he’s shifted focus to Mabul and Sipadan. Divers, according to him, have no issue paying a bit more to dive in these unaffected islands. He’s also done a recent trip to Tioman with no cancellations.
“They know the situation so they’re there for the dives and some want to see (the extent of) the bleaching for themselves,” he adds.
Pulau Tioman off the Pahang coast, is among the more badly affected islands, so there is no question that some of the bigger businesses have been affected.
According to Martin Ritter, marketing and sales director of B & J Diving Centre, misleading reports in the media have led to worried divers calling his centre up thinking that they could no longer dive in Tioman at all.
“Although there are only about six sites here that are temporarily closed, the divers’ perception is that all have been closed,” he complains.
The recent MIDE (Malaysia International Dive Expo) event was also an indicator of the reaction of the public to the news reports.
“We would normally sell between 20 and 30 dive packages a day. This time we signed up just nine for the whole duration,” he adds.
Berjaya Hotels and Resorts, which has a presence on both Tioman and Redang, issued a statement saying both resorts “will be running as usual” and that the resort had simply received “additional enquiries” from the guests and stakeholders.
In light of the government’s actions, one inevitable question is what additional steps are necessary to protect the reefs? Everyone has his or her own ideas.
Sukhdev thinks more monitoring is needed to evaluate the post-recovery progress of the reefs.
“For the long term, that is what we need for the benefit of the coral,” he says.
Tho suggests that it is essential for the government to extend the closure period of the reef sites. She also thinks the government should charge higher marine park fees in order to fund future efforts to remedy coral bleaching.
Kwok, on the other hand, says Malaysian dive sites should be closed periodically in rotation throughout the diving season.
Ritter agrees with the idea of rotation, saying, “The healthy dive sites should be closed partially but it has to be done with the input of the local dive operators.”
However, he cautions that a lot of dive operators would disagree with such a move.
“They don’t want any closure because they don’t see divers having an effect on coral. But I know that corals need to be left in peace so that they can spawn and fertilise the other reefs again.”
Ritters says it would be a good idea if emergency planning is executed in future in which comprehensive notification is given to the Malaysian public on which sites are to be closed and for how long. To him, this would prevent divers thinking entire islands were off-limits.
Another leisure diver and consultant, Arpad Vezer, 53, who has been diving in Redang since 1998, says he’s noticed coral bleaching. While he is in favour of the government’s action, he also feels for the dive operators who are likely to lose money. A compromise, he thinks, is in order.
“Maybe the government can impose a restriction like they do in Sipadan and limit the number of divers who can visit a site per day?” he ventures.
For Julian Hyde, general manager of Reef Check, actions taken (and those yet to be taken) are for the long-term benefit of the islands and the diving industry.
“We can’t do much about coral bleaching but we can stop the other things that contribute. Boat diesel pollutes the reefs. And there are other contributors that compound the effects of climate change.”
“Corals are living organisms, and I would compare them to a person who’s recovered from a disease. Rest is what’s needed to enable one to eventually regenerate and be healthy again,” he concludes.
What is coral bleaching?
Michael D'Oliveiro The Star 14 Aug 10;
Coral displays its brilliant colour thanks to zooxanthellae. These microscopic algae co-exist with the coral.
When this symbiotic relationship breaks down, the zooxanthellae are expelled from the tissue, which then becomes transparent.
This causes the coral’s white skeleton to show through, giving the appearance of the coral being “bleached”.
Coral bleaching is a direct result of increased salinity in oceans, increased sedimentation due to silt run-off or even cyanide fishing.
The biggest cause is a rise in ocean temperatures due to global warming. Divers often mistakenly assume that bleached coral has died.
What is true is that it will die within four to eight weeks of bleaching if conditions persist.
Even those that eventually survive may display side effects, including slower growth and increased risk of disease.
Loss of coral means loss of food and habitat for reef fish, and they may eventually desert an affected site.
Before too long, divers may find themselves floating above an underwater grave.
Malaysia is not the only country suffering from this blight, as iconic diving destinations like the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, too, have felt the effects of coral bleaching.
As early as 1998, when mass bleaching was reported globally, the Great Barrier Reef reportedly suffered a 50% rate of coral bleaching.
This was repeated in 2002 on an even greater scale — up to 60%.
Other areas that have suffered from coral bleaching since 1996 include Hawaii, the Mediterranean, the Maldives and Seychelles.
Fortunately, Malaysia can still learn from Australia’s experiences, in particular through their implementation of the comprehensive Coral Bleaching Response Plan.
This plan, among other things, encourages greater local community involvement in monitoring, thus allowing for early detection of bleaching in the Great Barrief Reef.
For more information, visit: www.gbrmpa. gov.au
Simon Khoo The Star 14 Aug 10;
TEMERLOH: The Wildlife Protection and National Parks Department (Perhilitan) is looking for suitable fringe tracks along highways throughout the country for wild animals to roam about.
Its director-general Datuk Abdul Rashid Shamsuddin said these tracks were necessary to prevent wild animals from straying onto the highways to cross over.
”We need to open up some paths near overhead bridges along highways to save these animals from being mowed down by passing vehicles.
”Besides, the unexpected presence of wild animals on the highways may lead to accidents and a danger to road users.
”One such path we have constructed is the 30km-long stretch starting in Gua Musang, Kelantan to Kuala Berang, Terengganu,” he said, after closing a course for tourist guides in Felda Jenderak Selatan, Kuala Krau recently.
Abdul Rashid said the cost for these paths was expensive, Perhilitan was looking at other ways to reduce cost.
He said these wild animals would stray onto highways between midnight and before dawn and many ended up dead.
”Some of these animals are endangered and it’s such a pity if they are killed by speeding vehicles.”
”Among other locations earmarked are Gerik to Jeli and Gua Musang to Cameron Highlands which recorded frequent movements of wild animals,” he said.
On a separate development, Abdul Rashid said about 600 wild elephants were posing a threat, destroying crops and plants mostly in Pahang, Perak and Johor.
He said these wild elephants which were violent would be caught and released in Taman Negara in Pahang, Tasik Kenyir in Terengganu and Belum forest reserve in Perak.
”However, the relocation of wild elephants to these three areas is no longer conducive as it is already too crowded and there is not enough food for them,” he said, adding that Perhilitan was also in the process of looking for new sites to house these giant animals.
He said the Krau forest reserve with an area of 63,000ha was one of the likely sites as it was located not far from the National Elephant Conservation Centre in Kuala Gandah, Lanchang.
”As a temporary measure, Perhilitan officers would chase these wild elephants into nearby forest if they are found to be in conflict with villagers by trespassing into their plantations.”
”But this move would only be short term as these wild elephants would return weeks later to look for food,” he said.
He said villagers are reminded not to act on their own but to alert Perhilitan officers immediately to trap these wild elephants.
Bangkok Post 14 Aug 10;
TRANG : Two humpback dolphins were returned to the sea yesterday after police saved them from being transported to a zoo in Chon Buri on Wednesday.Villagers of Ban Ta Se in Hat Samran district gathered to witness the release of the dolphins.
The ceremony was presided over by Trang governor Maitri Intusud and Marine and Coastal Resources Department deputy chief Prawim Wutthisin.
The dolphins, about two metres long, were caught illegally off Trang's coast and transported in a van to Chon Buri.
Highway police stopped the car for inspection when it reached Chumphon's Muang district on Aug 11.
Three men - Sompis Niemkert, Manit Mathuna, and Nathapong Niemkert - admitted they were hired by an owner of a zoo in Chon Buri to catch dolphins and bring them for display there, according to police.
Inquiries are continuing into the involvement of the zoo.
A dolphin conservation group in Ban Ta Se says the episode has shown it needs to stay alert for illegal catches off tambon Ta Se's coast, home to many types of dolphins.
The area has about 130 bottlenose, humpback and Irrawaddy dolphins, said group chairman Tawan Tuionn.
In Surat Thani, a female dugong has beached on a shore in Chaiya district, according to officials.
Locals suspect the dugong was trapped in a fisherman's net and wounded. It was found dead on the beach.
The sea off Surat Thani's coast is home to a dwindling number of dugongs.
Four of them have been found dead in the province in recent years, said Arun Samyam, of the marine and coastal resources research centre in Chumphon.
Antara 14 Aug 10;
Dumai, Riau (ANTARA News) - A tidal flood submerged two sub districts in Dumai City, Riau Province, Sumatra Island, early Saturday due to rising sea waters.
The inundation reaching a height up to one`s knee, had covered a number of roads and invaded hundreds of houses in East Dumai Sub district and West Dumai Sub district since Friday evening, sources said.
Effected residents were forced to evacuate to high grounds and save their belongings from the flood.
"Flooding and flooding again, Dumai city is never free from this problem," Rianto, a resident of Purnama urban village, West Duma sub district, said while trying to move his belongings to higher place.
Dumai City, which is located in a coastal area, could be hit by tidal floods three or four times a year, he said.
But this time the condition was worse as heavy rains had been falling constantly since Friday afternoon (Aug 13).
Scientists have found that primarily due to human-induced climate change, the sea level everywhere has been rising since the mid-19th century.
During the 20th century, the sea level rose about 15-20 centimeters (roughly 1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), with the rate at the end of the century expected to increase significantly over the figure in early part of the century.
According to the Climate Institute on its website, even a seemingly small rise in the ea level can have a dramatic impact on many coastal environments. Over 600 million people live in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea level, and two-thirds of the world?s cities that have populations over five million are located in these at-risk areas .
With sea level projected to rise at an accelerated rate for at least several centuries, very large numbers of people in vulnerable locations are going to be forced to relocate.
If relocation is delayed or populations do not evacuate during times when the areas are inundated by storm surges, very large numbers of environmental refugees are likely to result. (*)
Stuart Grant ABC News 13 Aug 10;
Scientists say fish on Australia's east coast are moving further south in line with an increase in ocean water temperatures.
A report in Global Ecology and Biogeographyby researchers from the CSIRO claims south eastern Australia has become a climate change hotspot with well documented changes in the physical marine environment.
The report found 45 fish species representing 30% of inshore fish families in the region, exhibited major distribution shifts thought to be climate related.
"The work is based on fish distribution changes published in scientific accounts, surveys, spear fishing and angling competitions, commercial catches and underwater photographic records from the late 1800's to the present," says CSIRO research scientist Alistair Hobday who helped compile the study.
Dramatic increase
Hobday says the waters off the coast of south-eastern Australia have experienced a change in temperature.
"40 years of sea temperature observations along the east coast has shown a dramatic increase, four times the global average of about 0.6°C per hundred years," he says.
"The current along the east coast generally flows north to south, so warm water is flowing south anyway, and when you add warming on top of that, it's a kind of double effect.
Hobday says this has resulted in a number of fish species moving south.
"It means fish formally confined to Queensland are moving into New South Wales, New South Wales species are migrating to Victoria, and Victorian fish are heading into Tasmanian waters," he says.
While seasonal water temperature fluctuations along the east coast can range from 12°C to 22°C, Hobday says it's the breeding temperature that is having the biggest impact.
Causes
A report in 2006 found fish species were moving south, but it did not examine the cause.
This latest study points the finger at higher water temperatures and pollution.
"40 years of ocean readings have shown a consistent temperature increase, and growing CO2 levels in the atmosphere has increased the amount of CO2 being dissolved in the oceans lowering the pH level," says Hobday.
Pollution runoff into the coastal waters of Queensland and New South Wales are also playing a part, but according to Hobday, it's not an issue further south.
He says changes caused by new species moving in will need to be examined.
"For example, sea urchins crossing Bass Strait into Tasmanian waters have decimated some kelp beds which is bad news for some species, but have provided new habitat opportunities for others."
"New South Wales fish moving into Tasmanian waters will be seen as good news for anglers," says Hobday.
"The bad news is coastal fish currently confined to Tasmania have no where further south to go, so we are going to see a loss of some of those species."
Immediate efforts urgently needed before October rains to stave off an anticipated plague
FAO 12 Aug 10;
12 August 2010, Rome - Madagascar is at risk of a significant plague of crop-eating locusts, FAO warned today.
An unknown number of immature swarms of Malagasy Migratory Locust (Locusta migratoria capito) have formed up and moved out of the country's south-western corner, where they are usually contained, and have begun to spread east and north, as far as Maintirano.
The government estimates that 460 000 rural families are potentially at risk.
A major, months-long control campaign will be necessary starting in advance of Madagascar's upcoming rainy season, which begins in mid-October, to stop locust numbers from growing and prevent them from reaching plague proportions.
Madagascar is currently in its dry and cool season, which is unsuitable for locust breeding. But the wet and hot weather of the rainy season - which lasts until spring -- will favour rapid reproduction.
Given suitable conditions, locusts can produce a new generation roughly every two months and up to four during one year.
The UN agency fielded an assessment mission to the island to assess the issue last week which confirmed, in close coordination with the national authorities, the seriousness of the situation and the need to initiate aerial surveillance of the movement of the locusts by early September.
Some 15 million USD in funding is urgently needed to mount a major campaign by ground and by air on an estimated half a million hectares of land, according to FAO. FAO has already activated the necessary mechanisms to mobilize human and physical resources and to preposition inputs and equipment in the country waiting for the initiation of the operations
Transformation into eating machines
Locusts do not always stay in swarms -- in south-western Madagascar, they typically live on their own as individuals.
But if their population density passes the tipping point, a locust's body chemistry changes and it undergoes a behavioural, ecological and physiological transformation.
Individual locusts begin to concentrate and act as synchronized groups of hopper bands (groups of wingless locusts) or as adult swarms, moving out en masse to find new sources of food capable of supporting their numbers and suitable for breeding. Their bodies change as well, allowing them to fly over greater distances - up to 100 km a day. And they become able to digest a wider range of vegetation and crops.
An adult locust can consume roughly its own weight in fresh food per day -- about two grams. A very small part of an average swarm eats the same amount of food in one day as about 2 500 people.
Acting early is critical to minimizing damage
Responding quickly to locusts once they start swarming is both the most thorough and cost-effective way to deal with the problem, according to FAO.
During the 2007-2009 period countries in the Red Sea region who invested in locust crisis preparedness, to the tune of 20 million USD, successfully prevented the Desert Locust upsurge developing into a plague. Countries in North and Northwest Africa did not when the upsurge started in 2003, and ended up spending around 400 million USD to bring the upsurge under control in 2005.
* Floods, heatwaves, drought expected to be more frequent
* Need to quantify risks for public, builders, insurance
Stephanie Nebehay Reuters AlertNet 13 Aug 10;
GENEVA, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Asia's heavy monsoons, a record heatwave in Russia and severe droughts in Africa show the need for new yardsticks to rate extreme weather to guide everybody from road builders to insurance companies, a U.N. expert said on Friday.
Scales exist to measure the power of hurricanes or air quality, but there are none to quantify risks from heatwaves, floods and droughts which are likely to become more extreme and frequent because of global warming.
A series of disasters, including floods in Pakistan and mudslides in China, have followed droughts in Australia and a record number of high-temperature days in the eastern United States, said Ghassem Asrar of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
"The general conclusion is the magnitude, the severity and extent of extreme events will be greater, which means we have to prepare," Asrar, director of the WMO's World Climate Research Programme, told Reuters in an interview.
"We need to develop standards, or indices, with a degree of confidence in our assessment to deal with extreme weather," he said. "In the case of hurricanes this is very developed and for heatwaves, drought or flooding there is a need to do the same."
He said the insurance industry was interested in the issue and Willis Group Holdings
The workshop, expected to attract about 100 people, would try to translate existing scientific models on extreme weather events into a quantitative scale that the public can easily understand.
"We will examine how very difficult scientific concepts can be boiled down into simple measures or yardsticks for the non-expert to use," Asrar said.
LEVELS OF RISK
The yardsticks should include a description of the level of probability -- or conversely the uncertainty -- associated with the predictions, he said.
The standards developed for assessing risks associated with such climate extremes will be published and could be used by national weather services worldwide to issue alerts.
"When they see it is based on sound scientific understanding they will promote it as part of their services. That is how we can get it into the mainstream and to the public," Asrar said.
A longer time range is required to establish firmly whether the latest series of disasters matches projections of a U.N. panel which predicted more frequent and more intense extreme weather events because of global warming, Asrar said.
"We need to have enough evidence to connect the dots, to say 'yes, this is the cause and the effect'," he said.
A report by the panel in 2007 said it was at least 90 percent likely that most warming in the past 50 years was caused by mankind, a finding questioned by sceptics pointing to errors in it such as an exaggeration of the melt of Himalayan glaciers.
Pakistan's floods, the worst in 80 years, have killed more than 1,600 people, forced 2 million from their homes and disrupted the lives of about 14 million. [ID:nSGE67CO5H] (Editing by Jonathan Lynn and Andrew Dobbie)
Leonora Walet PlanetArk 13 Aug 10;
In the race to build hybrid cars and wind turbines to feed growing demand for green technology, China has one clear advantage, it holds the world's largest reserves of rare earth metals and dominates global production.
Wind turbines, made by No.2 wind turbine maker Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology, and hybrid cars, being developed by Warren Buffet-backed Chinese automaker BYD are among the biggest guzzlers of rare earth minerals, which analysts say are facing a global supply crunch as demand swells.
This little-known class of 17 related elements is also used for a vast array of electronic devices ranging from Apple's iPhone to flat screen TVs, all of which are competing for the 120,000 tons of annual global supply.
China controls 97 percent of rare earth production.
"Rare earth for China is like oil to the Middle East," said Yuanta Securities analyst Min Li.
Worldwide demand for rare earth is expected to exceed supply by some 30,000 to 50,000 tons by 2012 unless major new production sources are developed, say officials at Australian rare earth mining company Arafura Resources.
China has curbed exports of the mineral since 2005 through quotas and duties, saying it needs additional supplies to develop its domestic clean energy and high-tech sectors. On Wednesday, it said it would cut export quotas in 2010 by 40 percent.
"Export restrictions may provide an advantage to Chinese turbine makers, again because of the cost advantage," said CIMB analyst Keith Li.
He said Chinese green companies would have priority in securing supply of the metals over international peers and their proximity to sources of the minerals ensures quicker and cheaper long-term supply.
China's domestic consumption of the metals poses the biggest threat to global supply. The country, which holds a third of the world's reserves, eats up to 60 percent of global rare earth supply for a wide range of applications from consumer gadgets and medical equipment to defense weapons.
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China's trading partners have grown increasingly vocal about its move to cut its export quotas, but Beijing is determined to control the rare earth market.
"Foreign companies could be facing some material supply risks, unless they decide to move production to China," warned Yuanta's Min Li.
NO GUARANTEES
But while China may ensure its first-tier green companies are given access to the rare elements, analysts agree this alone is unlikely to guarantee success for the Chinese clean tech firms.
New technologies free of rare earth elements could emerge that may undermine China's advantage, while further cuts in rare earth quotas could trigger a political backlash which could force the nation to keep supply open for its trading partners.
"Chinese technology needs to develop quickly enough to make full use of that advantage," said CIMB's Li.
"That window closes if its existing technologies fail to evolve."
Still China will have the upper hand in the global rare earth market for a while yet.
There are currently many new mine projects outside of China in the pipeline but few will be able to compete with it on price unless governments offer production subsidies.
Low prices for rare earth metals from China have undermined production and led to closure of several mines overseas. Lax environmental rules and cheap labor also allow China to sell rare earth metals at low prices.
Also, the development of new rare earth mines could take as many as 10 years.
China's leading rare earth company, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech Co., is building 200,000 tonnes in rare earth oxide reserves, and state media reported that the company is joining forces with Jiangxi Copper Corp to set unified prices for rare earth metals.
If supply becomes extremely tight as experts suggest, Chinese green companies may take upon themselves to secure the mineral by getting involved in the actual process of making rare earth products, analysts said.
BYD is scouting for new sources of lithium, an important ingredient for its high-performance batteries.
Like that of rare earth metals, lithium supply is expected to be tight by 2050, according to a European Commission study on critical raw materials. That is assuming most consumers would ditch their oil-guzzling cars for new generation vehicles.
"BYD is looking for new supply of raw materials all over China, not just in Sichuan," said company spokesman Paul Lin in response to an inquiry about rumors that the company is buying lithium assets in the Chinese province known for its rich reserves of lithium and other materials. The company declined to make further comments about the rumored deal.
A sister company of rival Toyota has secured a lithium supply deal in Argentina while Toshiba Corp also plans to set up a rare metals joint venture with Kazakhstan state-owned firm Kazatomprom.
Toyota, which makes the top-selling hybrid car Prius, and Nissan, maker of electric car Leaf, as well as, General Motors which designed plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt are most vulnerable to a rare earth supply crunch, analysts say.
A car like the Prius requires 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of neodymium. And each Prius battery uses 10 to 15 kg (22-33 lb) of another rare earth, lanthanum, said Jack Lifton, a commodities analyst and leading authority on rare metals.
Siemens AG and General Electric, which are investing in the development of direct drive turbines for offshore wind generation, could also be facing risks in securing supply of the rare earth, they said.
(Editing by Valerie Lee)
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