Matt McGrath BBC World Service 21 Nov 12;
A report by the UN says global attempts to curb emissions of CO2 are falling well short of what is needed to stem dangerous climate change.
The UN's Environment Programme says greenhouse gases are 14% above where they need to be in 2020 for temperature rises this century to remain below 2C.
The authors say this target is still technically achievable.
But the opportunity is likely to be lost without swift action by governments, they argue.
Negotiators will meet in Doha, Qatar for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP18) next week to resume talks aimed at securing a global deal on climate by 2015.
The Emissions Gap Report 2012 has been compiled by 55 scientists from 20 countries. It says that without action greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will be the equivalent 58 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2020.
That's around 14 gigatonnes above the level that scientists have said is needed to keep temperature rises this century below the targeted level of 2C.
Even if the most ambitious pledges from countries to cut emissions are honoured, the gap is likely to be eight gigatonnes, an increase of two gigatonnes on last year's estimates.
"Eight is a big number," says Dr Joseph Alcamo, chief scientist of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), "that's about the total greenhouse gas emissions of the entire industrial sector in the whole world right now."
The United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) says the increase in the levels of emissions in this year's report is due to projected economic growth in some developing countries and the removal of some emissions cuts that were counted twice.
"The report provides a sobering assessment of the gulf between ambition and reality," says Achim Steiner, the executive director of Unep.
Mr Steiner says that bridging the gap remains technically possible from large reductions in power generation and transport.
The report also highlights examples of relatively inexpensive actions that have been effective in curbing emissions at national level. These include higher performance standards for vehicles and appliances, and economic incentives to reduce deforestation. Many of these actions have been taken for economic reasons but are having the added benefit of reducing emissions.
Lead author, Dr Monica Araya says it is crucial that this approach continues.
"If we want politicians to endorse these policies they have to be able to go out there and sell them on the basis of the benefits they create for their people and not just for the planet."
Critical talks
The report is meant to inform negotiators at the COP18 climate meeting that begins in Doha next week.
According to Christiana Figueres, who will lead the talks on behalf of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it should help governments identify how ambitions can be raised.
"It is a reminder that time is running out but that the technical means and the policy tools to allow the world to stay below a maximum 2C are still available to governments and societies," she said.
The UNEP report follows on from a new analysis by the World Meteorological Organisation that says the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2011. It suggests that CO2 has now reached concentrations of 390.9 parts per million, or 140% of the pre-industrial levels of 280ppm.
The impact of these gases has been significant, says the WMO, causing a 30% increase of the warming effect on the climate between 1990 and 2011.
Swift action needed to tackle widening emissions gap: U.N.
Nina Chestney PlanetArk 22 Nov 12;
Greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 could be between 8 billion and 13 billion metric tonnes (14.33 billion tons) above what is needed to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius, a United Nations' Environment Program (UNEP) report showed on Wednesday.
The annual report, prepared by UNEP and the European Climate Foundation, studied a range of estimates to assess whether current pledges for emissions cuts are enough to limit the worst effects of climate change.
It found the gap between countries' emissions cut pledges and what is needed to stay under what scientists say is the limit to avoid devastating effects from global warming has widened since last year's estimate of 6-11 billion tonnes due to higher-than-expected economic growth and other new data.
The World Bank warned this week that the world is likely to warm by 3-4 degrees by the end of the century and extreme weather will become the "new normal", affecting every region in the world.
Scientists say emissions will have to peak before 2020 and fall to around 44 billion tonnes (gigatonnes) by 2020 to have a good chance of limiting temperature rise to below 2 degrees.
Based on 2010 data, global emissions are estimated around 50 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) - 20 percent higher than 2000 emissions and 14 percent above the level needed in 2020 to stay under 2 degrees, UNEP said.
"If no swift action is taken by nations emissions are likely to be at 58 gigatonnes in eight years' time," the report said.
"Even if the most ambitious level of pledges and commitments were implemented by all countries and under the strictest set of rules, there will now be a gap of 8 billion tonnes of CO2e by 2020," the report added.
TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE TO CLOSE EMISSIONS GAP
In 2010, countries agreed to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels but many countries have failed to enact emissions cuts to back up their promises.
U.N. scenarios indicate that cuts of 25 to 40 percent are needed to limit temperature rise.
Delegates from over 190 countries will meet in Doha, Qatar, next week for a U.N. conference to work on emissions cuts under a new climate pact which will only come into force in 2020.
If the necessary emissions cuts are delayed, costs could be at least 10 to 15 percent higher after 2020, the UNEP warned.
Estimates vary on the cost of inaction on climate change but it is projected to reach trillions of dollars.
If current emissions pledges are increased, more ambitious cuts are brought to the table and stricter accounting rules adopted, it is still technically feasible to close the emissions gap but swift action was needed, UNEP said.
Emissions could be reduced by around 17 billion tonnes from the building, power generation and transport sectors by 2020.
"Yet the sobering fact remains that a transition to a low- carbon, inclusive green economy is happening far too slowly and the opportunity for meeting the 44 billion metric tonne target is narrowing annually," said Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Director and U.N. Under-Secretary General.
In response to the report, U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres said that although time was running out, technical and policy tools were still available to allow the world to stay below 2 degrees.
"Governments meeting in Doha now need to urgently implement existing decisions which will allow for a swifter transition towards a low-carbon and resilient world," she said.
Environmental campaign group Greenpeace said coal use has caused over two thirds of the rise in CO2 emissions and that governments must speed up the deployment of clean energy.
The UNEP report involved 55 scientists from 22 countries.
(Editing by Keiron Henderson and James Jukwey)
Developing nations push rich on climate targets ahead of talks
Stian Reklev PlanetArk 22 Nov 12;
Talks on a new climate change treaty in Qatar next week will not advance unless rich countries promise more ambitious cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, four major developing nations said.
The four nations, Brazil, China, India and South Africa -known in climate talks as the BASIC bloc - released a joint ministerial statement late on Tuesday saying responsibility for the outcome of the latest round of U.N. climate talks in Doha lay in the hands of rich countries.
"Ministers reaffirmed that the Kyoto Protocol remains a key component of the international climate regime and that its second commitment period is the key deliverable for Doha, and the essential basis for ambition within the regime," they said.
They added that rich nations must produce more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which fall far short of what scientists say are needed to avoid runaway climate change.
The Kyoto Protocol, the only international treaty to set legally binding targets on cutting greenhouse emissions, expires at the end of the year. Around 30 European nations and Australia have signaled they are ready to take on new targets.
But major emitters such as Canada, Japan, Russia and the United States will not take part, saying the U.N. pact will have no environmental impact until it imposes similar targets on large developing nations, including China and India.
China and India are the world's biggest and third biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, respectively.
A report released this week by the World Resources Institute, a U.S. think tank, showed two-thirds of the world's planned coal-fired power plants will be built in China and India, ensuring their carbon output will continue to soar.
Developed countries are keen to begin negotiations on a new treaty to cap emissions from all countries.
At last year's U.N. climate talks in Durban, negotiators agreed that such a deal must be reached by 2015 at the latest, and go into force in 2020.
But the BASIC countries said even a new treaty should be negotiated along the same principles as the current U.N. climate convention, keeping a division between rich and poor nations.
The Kyoto Protocol states that countries are bound by the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", which puts most of the burden for combating climate change in the hands of rich nations with larger historical rates of emissions.
"The Durban Platform is by no means a process to negotiate a new regime, nor to renegotiate, rewrite or reinterpret the Convention and its principles and provisions," they said, signaling they will not accept the same treatment as rich countries in any new treaty.
The statement shows the developing nations are concerned about the pace of the negotiations, said Li Yan, a climate campaigner with Greenpeace China.
"Big developing countries, especially China, will need some time to do its homework and think of what it can do," she said.
(Editing by David Stanway and Ron Popeski)
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