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Survey shows rise in satisfaction, sense of belonging
Joyce Teo, Straits Times 1 May 10;
READ blogs and other media and you can get the impression that we are always whining about our lot. Yet, a new survey shows just the opposite - that Singapore is a much-loved home to its people and foreigners with a growing sense of belonging.
In fact the levels of satisfaction are growing, indicating that efforts to remake the place into a more vibrant city are having real effects at ground level.
The latest lifestyle survey by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), out yesterday, asked 4,000 people - mostly Singaporeans but also foreigners and permanent residents - about this place they call home.
It was carried out from August last year to March this year.
More than 80per cent of Singaporeans and permanent residents agreed that this is a great place in which to live, work and play.
This is 10per cent up on satisfaction levels in a 2006 survey - a smaller-scale public perception survey, said National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan.
Foreigners are even keener, with more than 85per cent raising their glasses to Singapore.
Mr Mah told the URA Corporate Plan Seminar yesterday that close to 90per cent of respondents said Singapore was their home and where they belonged, up 20 percentage points from the 2006 survey.
'The survey results are showing a positive trend - that Singaporeans love their city more,' said Mr Mah.
The survey data will be used for the ongoing Concept Plan 2011 review, which maps out Singapore's long-term land use strategies and directions.
'With our new hardware in place, we need to look beyond the physical, to search for the 'soul' of our city, and work towards enhancing it,' added Mr Mah.
Soul is not easy to find, however, as DP Architects director Tai Lee Siang told The Straits Times.
'It requires both the hardware and software working in unison - not one after another. While the skyline and architectural environment (here) are becoming exciting, I can't say that there are many spaces that Singaporeans can occupy and call their own.'
As a start, the Government will put more effort into 'making places', or place management, so that key areas of the city can be activated, Mr Mah said.
This is already happening at Marina Bay and will occur at the Singapore River, Orchard Road, the Bras Basah and Bugis precinct, and historic districts.
The URA will soon call a tender for a consultancy to formulate a five-year plan to work with stakeholders to develop the Singapore River precinct.
Mr Mah identified three key ingredients - the three 'Ps' - that are needed to make a place vibrant and distinctive.
The first is planning for land use, a major concern of Singapore residents, as the URA survey revealed.
They fear the physical landscape changes too fast and that Singapore does not keep enough familiar buildings and places.
The URA has increased the number of conserved buildings and structures from 3,000 or so to about 7,000 over the past two decades but conservation is challenging in a land-scarce nation, said Mr Mah.
'For each potential conservation site, there is a tension between the redevelopment and conservation; it's always a very tough call...'
URA chairman Alan Chan said yesterday: 'In our planning function, we ensure that Singapore's physical development is able to support our population and economic growth in a sustainable manner.'
Mr Mah said the URA will start work in Waterloo Street and Queen Street later this year to make it more pedestrian-friendly and install infrastructure to facilitate street events. About $10million will be spent, with the project finished by early 2012.
Singapore will continue to beef up its hardware but shift focus to the softer aspects of its quality of life, said Mr Mah. This is the second 'P' - programmes.
'What breathes life into a place are the programmes that will in turn, bring in the people,' he said.
'But ultimately, what gives a place its soul is the last 'P', which is people.'
Places only truly come alive when the community uses the spaces to interact and bond, said Mr Mah.
Mr Tai added:'The key to creating a soul is ownership. Singaporeans must feel that they can 'own' the urban spaces in Singapore.'
A Great place to live, work and play
Straits Times 1 May 10;
That's the conclusion of the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) latest lifestyle survey that covered 4,000 respondents, including 398 permanent residents and 395 foreigners. They were interviewed from August last year to March this year. Here are some of the findings
Housing
MOST Singapore residents - 72 per cent - prefer to live in public housing, according to the second URA lifestyle survey.
This is in contrast to the first survey done in 2002-2004 when nearly half said they wanted to own private housing.
HDB four-room flats are the best loved housing type, with nearly 28 per cent of respondents opting for it, followed by five-room flats. Three-room flats, private condos and HDB executive flats are also popular.
Housing cost was the most important consideration in terms of the respondents' choice of location, followed by proximity to public transport and neighbourhood facilities.
Said 38-year-old Nathaniel Koh: 'I aspire to own a piece of private property. But given what I can afford, I would buy a three-room flat if I remain single or a resale four-room flat if I get married.'
The Elderly
THEIR TOP 5 WANTS
# Elderly friendly facilities and amenities within walking distance of home.
# Elderly friendly features at home.
# Affordable housing.
# Adequate subsidies.
# Retirement villages with facilities.
ALMOST 80 per cent of older respondents prefer to stay in regular housing rather than retirement villages or flats for the elderly.
They cited cost as the biggest factor influencing their housing choice, followed by access to public transport and proximity to neighbourhood amenities like wet markets and clinics.
'Not only will the rent for private retirement villages be expensive, when you pass away, you won't have a house to leave for your children,' said Madam Chong, 66, on why she preferred living at home. She did not want to give her full name.
Other factors holding the elderly back from moving into retirement villages are the desire to retain a sense of independence, to age in a familiar environment and to encourage inter-generation interaction.
Respondents also wanted elderly friendly facilities to be provided within walking distance from home.
'I want to stay where I am now,' said Mr Tan Chin Huat, 79.
Conservation
WHILE Singapore is seen as an endearing home, about 73 per cent of respondents feel its physical landscape changes too quickly.
They believe that familiar places contribute strongly to their sense of belonging and should be kept at all costs.
Even more striking, 96.6 per cent of respondents feel that hawker centres should be maintained as a key amenity in our housing estates.
These centres as well as local shops are seen as being important to a neighbourhood's identity.
'The hawker centre represents the easy mixing of all races and it gives us character,' said Mr See Chan Teck, 76.
The poll also found that housing estates have left people with the fondest memories, followed by national icons - Sentosa, Changi Airport, the Esplanade and conservation areas. Conservation areas included Chinatown and Boat Quay.
More than 90 per cent of them feel that greenery contributes strongly to the nation's identity, citing East Coast Park, Botanic Gardens and Bishan Park as places that make Singapore special.
Leisure
THE variety and vibrancy of nightlife is leaving 57 per cent of residents less than satisfied. But 51 per cent, mostly the elderly and parents with young children, were neutral on the issue.
To encourage later nights out, those polled cited extending the hours of public transport and entertainment places as the most important factors.
Singapore's leisure environment scored well with 84 per cent saying they were satisfied, while 92 per cent felt Singapore offered activities they like.
The rest cited mostly outdoor activities, such as skiing, hiking, sky diving and bungee jumping, as activities that were lacking.
Business development officer Jacob Lim, 26, said Singapore lacked the buzz of many other world-class cities like Hong Kong and London.
'It's pretty much the same scene over and over again here. There are only that many places, and even Clarke Quay is getting too crowded,' he said.
'Everything seems planned from the top down - even where the nightlife should be - but you can't plan fun in such a manufactured way.'
Transport
THE allure of the city centre as a work place has faded with more people wanting their offices to be closer to home.
The poll found that 66 per cent of respondents wanted to work in their immediate neighbourhood.
Toiling in the city centre came in a distant second at 13 per cent.
The ease of access to work and its proximity to public transport and home were cited as the top three factors influencing choice of employment location.
With 63 per cent of those polled taking public transport to work, respondents also picked cheaper fares and increased frequency of services as ways to encourage a greater use of buses and trains.
Sales coordinator Tay Mei Fong, 47, said she takes about an hour to get to her work place in Havelock Road from Simei, using the train and public bus.
Her views are similar to the 40 per cent of respondents who take more than 30 minutes to get to their place of employment.
It is no surprise that 69 per cent wanted travel times of under 30 minutes.
'I would definitely prefer working close to home as it would reduce my transport costs, allow me to avoid congestion on the road and also allow me to be able to rush home if there are any emergencies,' Madam Tay said.
Foreigners
FOREIGNERS and Singaporeans said watching TV and movies at home is their top leisure activity.
But while going to a pub or club was the second favourite activity for foreigners, it did not make the top five for Singaporeans.
The survey found that 87.3 per cent of foreigners surveyed agreed that Singapore is a great place to live, work and play in.
Eighty-one per cent also agreed that Singapore is a vibrant and exciting city with its own distinctive character.
What they like most about Singapore are its clean and safe environment and the climate. Nearly nine out of 10 respondents said that greenery contributed to Singapore's identity.
Only about 54 per cent of the foreigners said they were satisfied with the night-life offerings, with a significant proportion neutral on this.
Foreigners showed a strong preference for living in the fringe areas or in the city centre, unlike Singaporeans, who showed no strong preference for any particular region.
About 93 per cent of all foreigners rent their homes.
JOYCE TEO, ESTHER TEO & MARISSA LEE
More satisfied with life in Singapore, next step is to build endearing home
Claire Huang Channel NewsAsia 30 Apr 10;
SINGAPORE: National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan has said the key to creating an endearing home is to develop the city's soul, now that the key infrastructure is in place. He said this on the back of the latest survey findings that more Singaporeans are satisfied with their living, working and leisure environment.
Data collected from the Lifestyle Survey 2009 as well as the Concept Plan 2011 online survey found that the number of people who think Singapore is a great place to live, work and play has gone up by about 10 per cent to 84 per cent, compared with a Public Perception Survey conducted in 2006.
Downtown districts like Bras Basah and Waterloo Street will get special attention from the government. The aim is to make them more vibrant.
Speaking at the URA Corporate Plan Seminar on Friday, Mr Mah said: "Government agencies will put more effort in 'making places', or place management....(What this means is that) you get the stakeholders in the place to also manage the place, to be involved in it so that key areas in the city can be activated.
"We've done so for Marina Bay, we are going to apply place management to Singapore River, to the Orchard Road area, Bras Basah, Bugis and the historic districts."
Place management is part of the plan to develop Singapore's distinctive character to create a more endearing home.
Mr Mah said: "The character of a city, what makes it stand out among many new cities, goes beyond new buildings or iconic structures. Take Times Square, New York and West End, London for example. Their claim to fame is not based on the latest or best infrastructure, but they are distinctive in character and have established a personality of their own in peoples' minds."
Place management appears to be working, going by the findings of the Lifestyle Survey 2009 by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).
Nine out of every 10 respondents in the survey said that Singapore is their home. That's 20 per cent more than the previous survey.
Meanwhile, seven in 10 wanted to retire here. Similarly, over 70 per cent of them hoped that their future generations will be based in Singapore. The majority would rather live in 4-room HDB flats. Older folks preferred regular housing over HDB studio apartments and retirement villages.
Respondents also said they were willing to pay more for a place that incorporates green technologies.
Respondents added there are areas for improvement, especially in the working environment. More than half (66%) would like to work near their homes.
Many also indicated that they would like to take a shorter time to get to work via public transport. In addition, it was felt that Singapore could do with a more vibrant nightlife.
As for foreigners, more than 80 per cent said Singapore is a vibrant city.
The survey also noted that more than 70 per cent of the respondents thought that Singapore's landscape is changing too quickly. They felt that the government has to keep enough familiar buildings and places at all costs so as to strengthen peoples' sense of belonging.
The URA has more than doubled the number of conserved buildings from 3,000 to 7,000 over the last two decades.
But Mr Mah said conservation is particularly challenging in a land-scarce nation.
"For each potential conservation site, there is a tension between the redevelopment and conservation and we have to weigh the trade-offs. There will be cases where conservation will mean excessive costs to society in terms of financial loss to property owners or serious loss of redevelopment potential," he said.
The Lifestyle Survey 2009 was done over a seven-month period from August 2009 to March 2010 while the Concept Plan 2011 online survey was conducted in January and February this year. The findings will be used to map the long-term directions for Singapore's land use.
- CNA/ir
Low Mei Mei Channel NewsAsia 30 Apr 10;
SINGAPORE: The haze could return in July if no concrete action is taken to fight the forest fires in Indonesia.
ASEAN environment ministers issued the warning at a meeting on transboundary haze in East Kalimantan, Indonesia on Friday.
The ministers noted that during the current Inter-Monsoon season from May to June, brief dry spells can be expected. This could lead to occasional surges of hotspot activities in the region.
Increased hotspot activities can be expected in the fire-prone areas in the region during the traditional dry season from June to September. This may lead to transboundary smoke haze pollution from July.
Despite the weakening of the El Nino phenomenon, the region experienced an increase in hotspots from March to April, compared with the same period last year.
The ministers agreed to step up vigilance and work harder to prevent and fight land and forest fires.
They also pledged to reduce the number of hotspots by 20 per cent every year.
The ministers noted the progress in the collaboration between Indonesia and Singapore for the Muaro Jambi Regency.
Seven action programmes have been successfully completed under the Jambi Master Plan.
An additional project on Freshwater Aquaculture Training has also been completed while the Jambi Peatland Management Project is ongoing.
Senior officials will meet again in July in Sarawak, Malaysia to review the fire and haze situation, as well as ongoing activities and appropriate action.
- CNA/ir
Fears over haze as hot spots increase
More forest fires in region last month despite wetter weather
Amresh Gunasingham, Straits Times 1 May 10;
FOREST fires increased in the region last month, prompting fears of worsening haze in the months ahead.
Asean environment ministers meeting to discuss the perennial issue yesterday in Balikpapan, East Kalimantan, warned that with drier weather looming, action would have to be stepped up against illegal loggers setting fire to the forest.
It came even as Indonesia announced a new haze action plan in which it formally pledged, for the first time, to cut its hot spots by 20 per cent a year over the next decade.
The world's third largest emitter of heat-trapping greenhouse gases sees the curbing of deforestation activities as a key component of its previously announced commitment to cut carbon emissions by 26 per cent by 2020.
But the number of hot spots in the region has increased despite wetter weather in the last few weeks and a predicted weakening of the El Nino weather pattern bringing hotter and drier weather.
Satellite pictures detected 3,166 hot spots in the region over last month, which is higher than the 2,427 detected for the same period last year. Earlier last month, Indonesian weather officials warned periods of severe drought since the start of the year could last till June in parts of East Java, raising the risk of fires.
A spokesman for the National Environment Agency said the dry season here would likely begin next month.
The increased hot spot activity has stoked fears of the haze returning during the traditional burning season between July and September, when farmers and logging companies in Sumatra and Kalimantan take to razing the land.
During the United Nations-led climate talks in Copenhagen last year, Jakarta came under fire from local environmental activists for not doing enough to protect the country's forests. It has also yet to ratify a 2002 Asean Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution.
Ms Liana Bratasida, Assistant Minister at Indonesia's Ministry of Environment, told The Straits Times late last year that her country's parliamentarians were stalling because of a perceived lack of action by Singapore and Malaysia against illegal logging companies who fuel a demand for timber in both countries.
There have been plenty of rainy days of late, unlike in February, with above average rain in many parts of the island.
Rizal Harahap, The Jakarta Post 30 Apr 10;
The coast of Dumai in Riau province is facing further coastal erosion due to damage to mangrove swamps, resulting in tides from the Malacca Strait slam against the shore, eroding up to 7 meters of coastline annually.
One of the worst-affected locations is Puak Beach in Teluk Makmur subdistrict in Medang Kampai.
Local community leader M. Nasir Efendi said the land between the coast the main road in the village had receded by more than 250 meters.
“When it was built in 1956, the distance between the road and the coast was around 300 meters, but now, during high tides, seawater reaches some sections of the 5-kilometer road,” Nasir told The Jakarta Post.
He added that residents had repeatedly requested government action to reclaim the coastline to save the village from high tides, but that the local administration had only built a wave barrier.
“What else can we do? The cost of coastal reclamation is too high, but residents still hope a dam will be built along the whole coast,” he said, adding that currently, only on a small stretch of the coast had a dam.
Nasir estimates that Teluk Makmur subdistrict would be washed away in the next 15 years without immediate action.
“If the rate of abrasion is on average 5 meters annually, the sea would reach the village in the next 10 years,” he said.
Dumai Environmental Agency head Zulfa Indra said the pace of coastal erosion in Dumai had reached an alarming level.
Apart from eroding land, he added that the waves could also extend the cliffs along the coast up to two meters inland.
Coastal erosion is not limited to Teluk Makmur subdistrict, he said. The coast along Pelintung Industrial Zone is also undergoing rapid erosion. “A large part of the mangrove swamps that previously served as a coastal barrier have vanished,” he said.
“Changes in land use have caused widespread mangrove forest destruction.
“Mangrove swamps still remain in a number of locations, but they are still young and require special care and supervision,” he added.
Zulfa said his agency faced difficulties curbing the pace of coastal erosion due to limited funds.
Last year, he said, the Dumai city budget allocated only Rp 3 billion (US$330,000) to maintain coastal areas, forcing the agency to postpone coastal barrier projects in a number of locations.
“The available funds won’t cover the length of coast that need to be protected from the waves,” Zulfa said.
He expressed hope that the Dumai municipality would approve the Rp 5 billion budget proposed by his agency for coastal maintenance this year, adding that the funds would be used to continue delayed projects and mangrove reforestation carried out over the past year.
“The budget approval very much determines the pace of mitigation efforts of coastal erosion that has threatened the lives of local people,” he said.
Zulfa said his agency had replanted 10,000 mangrove seedlings in a number of areas prone to coastal erosion, of which only 60 percent would survive, while the rest are expected to die or be swept away by waves.
“Only mature plants can survive the pace of erosion, that’s why we still need maintenance funds for the next several years to ensure the young plants continue to thrive.
“Young mangrove trees cannot mature naturally in current conditions as they could be swept away by waves.
“These young trees are also prone to forest clearing, so they must be tended to and supervised,” he said.
Nasir estimates that Teluk Makmur subdistrict would be washed away in the next 15 years without immediate action.
Jakarta Globe 30 Apr 10;
Trillions of rupiah has been lost from state coffers as a direct result of corruption and mismanagement in the forestry sector, a leading graft watchdog has said.
“We estimated the shortfall to forestry revenue in Riau province alone from 2002 to 2006 was Rp 1.855 trillion [$205.9 million],” Anggita Tampubolon, a researcher at Indonesia Corruption Watch, said on Friday.
This translates to average annual losses in Riau of Rp 371 billion over the period.
ICW based its calculation on comparisons between official deforestation estimates and production estimates.
Firdaus Ilyas, budget analysis monitoring coordinator for ICW, said the potential losses across the nation were far greater.
“This data comes from just one province,” he said, “and could be duplicated across the country.”
ICW’s finding eclipses recent research by the Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) said losses from Riau’s forestry sector between 2008 and 2009 amounted to Rp 491 million.
The audit factored in illegal mining in forests, unauthorized issuance of concessions, zoning violations, underreporting of forestry earnings, failure to collect on those earnings and embezzlement.
To combat graft, ICW recommended an overhaul of policy to grant concessions, greater transparency in forestry earnings, improved revenue collection and more stringent law enforcement.
“The government needs to seriously follow up on reports like the BPK’s or from local communities,” Firdaus said.
Meanwhile, Wirendro Sumargo, executive director of Forest Watch Indonesia, said ICW’s report did not take into account the vast losses on top of the shortfall to state coffers.
“The ecological cost itself is much higher than that — about Rp 2 trillion,” he said. “You need to take into account the environmental services or biodiversity lost as well.”
Wirendro said combating corruption in the sector would not be easy. “It won’t be apparent on the perpetrators’ bank accounts because of the nature of how they work,” he said. “Most perpetrators just get an administrative slap on the wrist and never face corruption charges.”
ICW’s Anggita acknowledged the difficulty, but said the BPK’s audit opened the way for strong action to be taken. “The audit revealed losses to the state, and under the corruption law that’s grounds for prosecution,” she said.
Antara, JG
Old Logging Cases to Get New Look
Jakarta Globe 30 Apr 10;
The Judicial Mafia Eradication Task Force is likely to probe several illegal logging cases halted by police or prosecutors, including the controversial acquittal of businessman Adelin Lis, an official said on Friday.
“Many cases will now likely be re-examined for the possibility that they were not properly handled,” task force secretary Denny Indrayana said after meeting North Sumatra Police Chief Insp. Gen. Oegroseno and provincial chief prosecutor Sutiono Usman Aji.
Police spokesman Sr. Comr. Baharuddin Djafar told the Jakarta Globe that among the many illegal logging cases discussed at the meeting was that of Adelin.
The businessman was acquitted of illegal logging charges last year by the Medan District Court and fled the country before prosecutors could lodge an appeal, despite him being under a travel ban.
“The task force is looking into why Adelin was acquitted,” Baharuddin said. “Police found a lot of incriminating evidence in his case, but some of it was never presented by the prosecutors in the trial.”
Officials from the North Sumatra prosecutor’s office could not be reached for comment.
The focus on illegal logging comes after a coalition of nongovernmental organizations last week reported 12 public officials to the task force for halting investigations into 13 pulp-and-paper companies accused of illegal logging in Riau, also on Sumatra Island.
During a meeting with the task force on Wednesday, Forestry Minister Zulkifli Hasan said illegal logging and farming were responsible for the clearing of about two million hectares of forest nationwide annually. He also told the task force his ministry was “probing a big case in Padang Lawas, North Sumatra,” but declined to elaborate.
Indonesia Corruption Watch researcher Anggita Tampubolon said the so-called forestry mafia had cost the state trillions of rupiah through illegal logging.
“Legitimate companies often purchase timber from illegal loggers,” she told the Globe. “Law enforcers often only net the small logging companies, while the major ones go untouched.
“The bribery comes in when the companies try to whitewash the illegally logged timber by getting local government officials to issue traceability certificates.”
Anggita added that although police could charge the legitimate companies with possession of illegally obtained goods, such instances were rare. “Instead, the big companies profit every time police confiscate logs from smaller companies because [they can buy them when] they’re auctioned off at way below market price,” she said.
Usman Hamid, chairman of the human rights group Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence (Kontras), said logging and oil palm companies were also responsible for driving many villagers off their land.
“The task force should also question local government officials who unilaterally issue concessions to these companies,” he told the Globe.
Usman cited the 2004 eviction of 839 families from Central Tapanuli district. In that case, the government had granted the villagers cultivation rights to the area in 1983, but later revoked it and instead signed over the land to an oil palm company.
“These villagers became victims of intimidation and physical abuse by rogue public officials,” Usman said.
“Cases like this abound in North Sumatra. There are thousands of families there who have been ordered to vacate their homes without any compensation.”
Antara 1 May 10;
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Indonesia is now definitively planning to have a nuclear power plant some time between 2018 and 2020, instead of in 2016 as previously scheduled, National Nuclear Power Agency (Batan) chief Hadi Hastowo said.
"It has been postponed to 2018-2020 because it is not possible to build it in 2016," Hadi said at a discussion themed "Remembering the Chernobyl Disaster 24 Years Ago" here Friday.
He said the Indonesian public should know that the country's need for electricity is to soar drastically in the future and that building a nuclear power plant must be included in the national energy development plan if future electricity shortages would be prevented.
"A nuclear power plant will not negate other alternative energy sources because it will only be a supplement to ensure the constant availability of electricity. All the other alternative energy sources such as geothermal, hydro, wind, solar and biomass will remain in the national development plan," he said.
The available reserves of the alternative energy sources, however, would not be enough to meet future needs for electricity.
For instance, Indonesia's geothermal reserves totaled 28 GW which was not enough. Hydro-power reserves were continuously diminishing, wind power could not be relied on because winds in the country were generally not strong enough, solar power required the use of solar cells which were very expensive, he said.
According to Hadi, nuclear power technology today was much more advanced than one or two decades ago and very concerned about safety. Fourth generation nuclear power plants today were also
more economical and producing minimum amounts of waste.
Also, he said, since Chernobyl, the world has seen the adoption of various conventions that were providing administrative guarantees for the safety of nuclear power plants such as the Nuclear Safety Convention, the Convention on Early Warning Notification on Nuclear Accidents and the Third Party Liability Convention.
"Indonesia has ratified all the international conventions needed to ensure the safety of nuclear power plants," he said.(*)
Seth Borenstein, Associated Press Yahoo News 30 Apr 10;
WASHINGTON – What makes an oil spill really bad? Most of the ingredients for it are now blending in the Gulf of Mexico.
Experts tick off the essentials: A relentless flow of oil from under the sea; a type of crude that mixes easily with water; a resultant gooey mixture that is hard to burn and even harder to clean; water that's home to vulnerable spawning grounds for new life; and a coastline with difficult-to-scrub marshlands.
Gulf Coast experts have always talked about "the potential for a bad one," said Wes Tunnell, coastal ecology and oil spill expert at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi.
"And this is the bad one. This is just a biggie that finally happened."
It hasn't quite become a total disaster yet. But it's hard to imagine it not being devastating, said Ed Overton, who heads a federal chemical hazard assessment team for oil spills. The Louisiana State University professor has been testing samples of the spilled crude.
He compared what's brewing to another all-too-familiar Gulf Coast threat: "This has got all the characteristics of a Category 5 hurricane."
If conditions don't change quickly, devastation of the highest magnitude is headed for somewhere along the coast, said Overton, who works with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
More than 200,000 gallons of oil a day are spewing from the blown-out well at the site of BP's Deepwater Horizon rig, which exploded April 20 and sank two days later. Crews are using at least six remotely operated vehicles to try to shut off an underwater valve, but so far they've been unsuccessful. Meanwhile, high winds and waves are pushing oily water over the booms meant to contain it. Besides BP, a slew of federal and state agencies are scrambling to minimize the onslaught of damage.
Experts in oil spills have drills every few years to practice their response for spills of "national significance." One of those practice runs took place just last month in Maine. The Gulf of Mexico leak is a "combination of all the bad things happening" and makes it far worse than any disaster imagined in the drills, said Nancy Kinner, director of the Coastal Response Research Center at the University of New Hampshire.
"This is relentless," Kinner said.
Most Americans think of Exxon Valdez when it comes to spills. But the potential and likelihood here "is well beyond that," said University of Rhode Island ocean engineering professor Malcolm Spaulding. Because the Deepwater Horizon well has not been capped and may flow for months more, it should be compared to a bigger more dangerous one from a well explosion in 1979, said Tunnell. That was Ixtoc 1, off the coast of Mexico. It was the worst peacetime oil spill on record.
The current spill "is kind of a worst case scenario," Tunnell said.
What makes this spill relentless and most similar to Ixtoc 1 is that it's an active well that keeps flowing. The Exxon Valdez was a tanker with a limited supply of oil. The rig 40 miles from the Gulf Coast may leak for months before a relief well can be drilled to stop the flow, Kinner said.
And LSU's Overton said: "I'm not very optimistic that they'll be drilling a relief well in three months."
The type of oil involved is also a major problem. While most of the oil drilled off Louisiana is a lighter crude, this isn't. It's a heavier blend because it comes from deep under the ocean surface, Overton said.
"If I had to pick a bad oil, I'd put this right up there. The only thing that's not bad about this is that it doesn't have a lot of sulfur in it and the high sulfur really smells bad."
The first analysis of oil spill samples showed it contains asphalt-like substances that make a major sticky mess, he said. This is because the oil is older than most oil in the region and is very dense.
This oil also emulsifies well, Overton said. Emulsification is when oil and water mix thoroughly together, like a shampoo, which is mostly water, said Penn State engineering professor Anil Kulkarni.
It "makes a thick gooey chocolate mousse type of mix," Kulkarni said.
And once it becomes that kind of mix, it no longer evaporates as quickly as regular oil, doesn't rinse off as easily, can't be eaten by oil-munching microbes as easily, and doesn't burn as well, experts said.
That type of mixture essentially removes all the best oil clean-up weapons, Overton and others said.
Under better circumstances, with calmer winds and water, the oil might have a chance of rising without immediately emulsifying, but that's not happening here, Kulkarni said. It's pretty much mixed by the time it gets to the surface.
The wind and waves are also pushing the oil directly toward some of the most sensitive coastal areas: the marshlands of Louisiana and surrounding states.
And there are three types of beaches: sandy, rocky and marshy. Sandy beaches, like those in Florida, are the easiest to clean, Overton said. By far the hardest are marshlands and that's where the oil is heading first.
Marshes are so delicate that just trying to clean them causes damage, Kinner said. Once the oily mess penetrates, grasses must be cut. But it also penetrates the soil and that is extremely difficult to get out, she said.
The normal bacteria that eats oil needs oxygen to work, and in the soils of the marsh, there's not enough oxygen for that process, she said.
It's also the time of year in the Gulf of Mexico when fish spawn, plankton bloom and the delicate ecosystem is at a vulnerable stage.
Hurricane season is fast approaching in June and experts are sure the oil will still be flowing by then. Though it might seem counterintuitive, a big storm could help by dispersing and diluting the worst of the oil, Overton said.
"A hurricane is Mother Nature's vacuum cleaner," Overton said. Normally it cleans things up. But that's not a solution with a continuing spill.
Richard Black BBC News 30 Apr 10;
How bad will the Gulf of Mexico oil spill turn out to be - for wildlife and for people whose jobs depend on wildlife, such as fishermen?
At the moment, the only completely accurate answer would appear to be: we do not know.
For David Kennedy from the US National Ocean Service, it is "a very very significant event, and of great concern".
"I'm frightened," he adds.
But Clifford Jones, an oil and gas engineering specialist from the UK's Aberdeen University, suggests it should not be considered in the same category as the Exxon Valdez spill of 1989, with which it is regularly being compared.
It is a threat to the ecosystem, he allows: but "Exxon Valdez was a supertanker holding 11 million barrels, and exit of oil from it was simply by gravity.
Continue reading the main story
We have to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, including a true catastrophe for birds
Melanie Driscoll National Audubon Society
"Whereas this current incident involves a well that's under the sea, and at most about four million barrels will have leaked out before the pressure within the well drops sufficiently for there to be no further discharge."
Whether or not the estimate of four million barrels turns out to be correct - and it is disputed - there is no doubt that the oil is coming out much more slowly than is normal from a tanker spill.
In principle, this allows the authorities greater time to deal with it - although clearly in this case their efforts have met with mixed success.
Oil breaks down naturally in seawater, and in the warm Gulf of Mexico water, this would proceed much faster than in Alaska's Prince William Sound, where the Exxon Valdez ran aground.
Boom time
In oil spills, as in medicine, prevention is always better than cure. And the first priority for authorities in Louisiana and elsewhere along the Gulf coast is to stop oil washing up on shore.
Booms are being deployed, dispersants sprayed, and some patches of oil are being burned. The Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority is increasing the flow of water through two inland water channels in an attempt to wash oil-tainted seawater out of ecologically important wetlands.
"Home not only to a thriving fishing industry but also a substantial nature reserve, the potential for damage is enormous," says Simon Coxall from the UK's National Oceanography Centre in Southampton.
"Booming the area off with floating dams to protect these areas is the best option; but the size of the spill will exhaust the world's supply of oil booms very quickly."
What makes this region ecologically special is the unusual patterns of land and sea conjured into existence by the lazy and variegated exit of the mighty Mississippi into the Gulf.
Here lie about 25% of US wetlands - areas rich with life, where human occupancy is low, and birds and other animals can thrive.
"For birds, the timing could not be worse; they are breeding, nesting and especially vulnerable in many of the places where the oil could come ashore," warns Melanie Driscoll, a Louisiana-based bird conservation director with the National Audubon Society, the leading US bird conservation group.
"We have to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, including a true catastrophe for birds."
The society's list of species potentially affected includes resident seabirds, waders and waterfowl, including heron, brown pelicans and oystercatchers, and migratory birds such as plovers, swallows and buntings that use the Gulf wetlands as a stopover.
The society points out that for some species, this is the now only home they have, with human development further inland having fenced them into these extremities.
The oil slick changes shape and direction rapidly, so predicting where it will make landfall and with what frequency is a hazardous business.
Clearly, the longer it takes BP to stem the flow, the greater the chance that its impacts will be felt further around the shores of the Gulf of Mexico, and indeed in its open water.
If the oil flows east, it will encounter the seagrass beds that form a key habitat for manatees, among other species.
"If you've got seagrass beds badly contaminated, clearly the manatees could be seriously affected," says Carl-Gustaf Lundin, head of the Marine Programme at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
Here again is a species that is already under severe stress. Fewer than 2,500 adults remain, and the IUCN Red List says the Florida subspecies is expected to decline by at least 20% over the next 40 years, with various factors implicated, including climate change and impacts from boats.
The Gulf waters are already affected annually by fertilisers washing down from southern US farmlands, resulting in a "dead zone" where algae have consumed most of the dissolved oxygen and nothing else can grow.
The Atlantic bluefin tuna is another possible victim.
Over the next six weeks, the western population of this heavily depleted species will spawn in the Gulf of Mexico - principally in the northern portion where the slick is growing.
"The oil would have an impact - it might be toxic to eggs or to the young fry," says Dr Lundin.
"Also, the young hide in sargassum (floating marine plants) - they're very vulnerable at this stage - and this could also be affected by oil."
Human face
Each of these possible impacts on wildlife translates into human consequences.
For tuna and shrimp, you can read jobs in the fishing industry and food supplies for US consumers.
For birds and manatees, you can read tourist income.
No two oil spills are alike; and given the vagaries of winds and sea currents, predicting the likely impact of this one is very difficult.
But you can see why local authorities and conservation groups are beginning to be seriously concerned.
As Oil Slick Drifts Closer, Resource Defenders Gird for Worst Along Gulf Coast
Noelle Straub, Greenwire, The New York Times 30 Apr 10;
Even the frantic preparations to protect the most vulnerable coastlines likely will not prevent devastating harm to key species as the Gulf of Mexico oil spill hits shore at the worst possible time for migration and breeding.
While no one can yet predict the full extent of the damage, experts say more than 400 species in the estuaries are at risk from the slick headed their way.
"It could be very devastating, unfortunately," said David Ringer of Audubon's Mississippi River Initiative. "The timing is pretty disastrous."
Wildlife officials are particularly worried about brown pelicans, which were recently removed from the endangered species list and are currently nesting on barrier islands off the southeast coast of Louisiana.
Breton National Wildlife Refuge, home to about 34,000 birds, is the top priority among the key nesting Gulf Coast areas being recommended by the Fish and Wildlife Service to be protected by booms, said Tom MacKenzie, the spokesman for the service's Southeast Region. In 2005, Breton was hit by an oil spill that killed more than 800 nesting ground pelicans, he said.
"It's those nesting pelicans that we're trying to defend right now," he said.
While four national wildlife refuges are in the immediate danger zone, another 15 along the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida could be hit by the oil, he said.
Over the past few days, berms have been placed at Breton consisting of a series of booms designed to deflect and absorb oil. "They're done in a series of rings almost like a defensive ring if you were going to set up against an invading army," MacKenzie said.
While the booms will help protect nests, little can be done for shorebirds that wade or land in the water, because the oil is already in the ocean, he said.
Several federal agencies are flying over the affected areas to monitor wildlife that could be affected by the oil, such as large flocks of birds, and FWS spotters saw whales swimming in the oil, he said. The first oiled brown pelican was sighted Wednesday on an oil platform near the source of the release.
Other species in particular danger include sea turtles, which will begin nesting "any time now"; gulf sturgeon, which are listed under the Endangered Species Act and migrating upstream to spawn; manatees, which are beginning to spread out along their full range of summer habitat in the Gulf; and numerous species of birds that forage for fish, MacKenzie said.
"This looks like an extremely extensive oil spill that has the potential to impact a lot of resources," he said.
Two whale species may be in the area of the spill, Bryde's whales and endangered sperm whales, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The greatest threat is if whales get oil in the filtering structure in their mouths, which could lead to starvation and death.
A total of 21 whale and dolphin species that routinely inhabit the northern Gulf are protected under the Marine Mammal Protection Act. There also are five species of threatened or endangered turtles in the Gulf, and one of the only foraging grounds for the endangered Kemp's ridley turtle -- which is in its peak nesting season -- is in the area of the oil spill, NOAA said.
Cleanup, volunteers
BP PLC, which by law is responsible for the cleanup costs, has hired Delaware-based Tri-State Bird Rescue and Research, a private nonprofit wildlife rehabilitation organization, to clean oil-coated birds and wildlife.
Five staging areas have been set up to protect sensitive shorelines in Biloxi and Pascagoula, Miss.; Pensacola, Fla.; Venice, La.; and Theodore, Ala. More than 217,000 feet of boom has been placed, with an additional 305,760 feet available.
While government officials and BP are handling all the frontline response currently, they will be looking to conservation groups with local presences to mobilize volunteers, said Audubon's Ringer.
"From our vantage point ... everything that can and should be being done, is being done," Ringer said. "Unfortunately, given the magnitude of what's happening, it's probably not going to be enough to prevent some environmental impact."
Many endangered turtles dying on Texas Gulf Coast
Ramit Plushnick-masti, Associated Press Yahoo News 30 Apr 10;
HIGH ISLAND, Texas – Flies buzz everywhere and the stench is overwhelming as biologist Lyndsey Howell stops to analyze the remains of yet another endangered sea turtle washed up from the Gulf of Mexico. "It's been on the beach for a while," Howell says, flipping over the decomposing, dried-out shell.
More than 30 dead turtles have been found stranded on Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula south of Houston this month — an unusually high number that has puzzled researchers, in part because most are so decomposed that there are few clues left about why they died.
The number of strandings on these shores is double what scientists and volunteers normally see as the turtles begin nesting in April, says Howell, who patrols the beaches as part of her job with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Of the 35 turtles found, all but three were dead. Thirty-three were Kemp's ridleys, an endangered species researchers have spent decades trying to rehabilitate.
Many of the turtles appear to have propeller wounds from boats or have become entangled in fishing nets or lines, Howell says. Others have parasites or are emaciated.
The increase in deaths comes as the turtles swim closer to shore to nest and shrimping season gets into full swing along the upper Texas coast, said Roger Zimmerman, lab director of the NOAA marine fishery laboratory in Galveston.
"Historically, they increase about this time of year. ... This is a few more than we would normally expect," Zimmerman said. "We are concerned and we'll keep an eye on it."
Researchers are also watching the massive oil spill off the coast of Louisiana. If the oil were to begin moving in the direction of the Texas Gulf — which isn't predicted at the moment — many Kemp's ridleys swimming in to nest would be right in its path. In 1979, after an oil spill off the coast of Mexico, Kemp's ridleys were airlifted to cleaner waters.
Shrimping has long been blamed for sea turtle deaths. Shrimpers are required to install grid-like devices in their nets that are designed to allow turtles to escape. Shrimpers caught without the turtle excluder devices — or TEDs — may be fined thousands of dollars and have their catch seized by federal regulators.
Still, some are reluctant to invest $800 on the TEDs or are angry over the extra work they create aboard the shrimp boats, so they gamble they won't be caught.
"When there is more shrimp, there are more turtle strandings," Zimmerman said. "That correlation has been well-documented."
Educating fishermen, the public and shrimpers about preserving Kemp's ridleys is part of a new federal recovery plan expected to be approved in the coming months. The goal is to upgrade the Kemp's ridleys from endangered to threatened within six years — but that depends on having 10,000 nesting females per season. Currently, there are about 6,000.
Nesting season begins in mid-April and lasts into July. Most Kemp's ridleys nest on a beach in Mexico or at Padre Island in south Texas. But increasing numbers have been seeking out the shores of Galveston and Bolivar.
Howell and Zimmerman hope the deaths indicate the population has increased and even more turtles are heading toward the Texas Gulf Coast to nest.
But there's no knowing for certain.
"This is a needle-in-a-haystack thing," said Andre Landry, a marine biology professor at Texas A&M University in Galveston. "It's a difficult situation, pinpointing a cause of death in an animal that may be compromised by decomposition."
Possible economic hit of Gulf oil spill
Reuters 30 Apr 10;
(Reuters) - An oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico washed up to coastal Louisiana wildlife and seafood areas on Friday as the U.S. government struggled to avert what could become one of the nation's worst ecological disasters.
Following are some of the estimated costs from the spill as well as its impact on share prices and markets.
CLEAN UP COSTS
- Fitch's Energy Team estimates containment and clean-up costs could reach $2 billion to $3 billion.
- BP Plc's Chief Executive Tony Hayward said the company would clean up the mess and compensate those affected. Transocean owned and operated the rig that exploded and sank last week, causing the spill. BP hired Swiss-based rig company Transocean Ltd to run the rig and oversee the project.
- "We are taking full responsibility for the spill ... We are going to be very, very aggressive in all of that," he told Reuters on Friday.
OIL COMPANIES
- Shares of oil services companies tumbled on Friday in the aftermath of the spill. BP is down around 14 percent and Transocean down 20 percent since the rig explosion on April 20.
- Shrimp fishermen in Louisiana have filed a class-action lawsuit against BP, Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron, accusing them of negligence.
FISHERIES/TOURISM
- The cost to the fishing industry in Louisiana could be $2.5 billion, while the impact on tourism along Florida's Gulf coast could be $3 billion, Neil McMahon, analyst at investment firm Bernstein, said in a research note on Friday.
- Omega Protein, the world's largest producer of omega-3 fish oil, relies heavily on a Gulf fishery, and its share price extended Thursday's sharp losses on Friday morning, losing another nine percent to $5.40.
MARKETS
- Analysts have said the spill could be a supportive factor for U.S. crude futures, but negative for Brent if it began to disrupt oil imports in the U.S. Gulf.
Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for a third straight monthly gain, driven by expectations of global economic recovery and hopes of a bailout package to help Greece avoid debt default.
(Source: Reuters)
USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station EurekAlert 29 Apr 10;
BERKELEY, Calif. April 29, 2010. Trees can provide beauty and shade in urban areas, but they also can improve air quality, conserve energy, reduce carbon emissions, and filter storm water. A new publication released by the Pacific Southwest (PSW) Research Station/USDA Forest Service can help residents along the northern California coast to calculate these benefits.
The "Northern California Coast Community Tree Guide: Benefits, Costs, and Strategic Planting," is the latest in a series of Forest Service publications that help people to quantify the tangible and intangible benefits of urban forests. It is a joint product of the station's Center for Urban Forest Research and the University of California, Davis.
"The northern California coast, which includes the area between Brookings, Ore., and San Luis Obispo, Calif., accounts for the largest proportion of total benefits to residents, businesses, and communities," explains Greg McPherson, lead author and station research forester. "We used measurements gathered through in-depth research of urban trees in Berkeley to model the annual benefits produced by tree species of certain sizes and we compared maintenance costs, like planting and irrigation, to benefits."
McPherson and his colleagues' results show that the quantity of the average annual net benefits increases with tree size—large-stature trees, for example, produce the highest benefit-to-cost ratio. His research team also found that, over a 40-year period, 100 large street trees provided $516,800 in benefits, far outweighing their $113,400 maintenance costs. The net benefit was $403,400; or for every dollar spent on tree management, residents receive $4.56 in benefits.
"This tree guide can easily be adopted for use by people in communities in this climate zone to calculate future benefits from proposed and existing tree planting projects," says McPherson. "It also gives advice on strategic selection and location of trees to maximize benefits."
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The research information and findings are integrated in "i-Tree Streets," a free software program, which is now used by more than 5,700 people worldwide. The software combines tree inventory, benefit, and cost data to report on the structure, function, and value of municipal forests. To download i-Tree, visit http://www.itreetools.org.
To download a copy of the "Northern California Coast Community Tree Guide: Benefits, Costs, and Strategic Planting," visit http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/programs/cufr/tree_guides. Or, write to PSW Research Station; Publications Distribution; 240 West Prospect Road; Fort Collins, CO 80526-2089. To order by phone, call (970) 498-1392 and ask for "PSW-GTR-228." Contact: Greg McPherson, research forester, phone: (530) 759-1723; e-mail: gmcpherson@fs.fed.us The Pacific Southwest Research Station/USDA Forest Service, is headquartered in Albany, California. The station develops and communicates science needed to sustain forest ecosystems and their benefits to society. It has laboratories and research centers in California, Hawaii, and the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands.
Harumi Ozawa Yahoo News 30 Apr 10;
TOKYO (AFP) – Japan is seeking an international arrest warrant for the head of anti-whaling group Sea Shepherd over high-seas clashes in Antarctic waters, media reports said Friday.
Tokyo will seek Interpol's help to arrest Canadian Paul Watson for ordering his crew to harass whaling ships in clashes in which Japanese crew were allegedly injured by rancid butter projectiles, broadcaster NHK reported.
Watson, speaking in New York, said "the arrest warrant is just totally political, it's nothing. I'm not concerned, and Interpol is not going to extradite me on a politically motivated charge."
"We save whales, and we are going to continue to go down to the southern ocean," the 59-year-old environmental campaigner and captain of the group's Steve Irwin vessel told reporters in comments broadcast in Japan.
The reported arrest warrant and Interpol request, which the Japan Coast Guard declined to confirm, are the latest act in a long-running battle between Japan and the US-based Sea Shepherd Conservation Society.
Japan hunts whales under a loophole to an international moratorium that allows the killing of the sea mammals for scientific research and does not hide the fact that the meat is later sold in shops and restaurants.
Sea Shepherd has sought to obstruct Japan's whalers for years and this year said they had their most successful season yet by preventing the harpoon ships from killing hundreds of the ocean giants.
Japanese authorities say the activists injured Japanese crew with chemical burns by throwing bottles of butyric acid, which the Sea Shepherd group describes as rancid butter stink bombs.
Japan's Fisheries Minister Hirotaka Akamatsu said "Japan should take decisive action. We should not leave such cases hanging in the air. Regardless of whether they are pro- or anti-whaling, what they did was a crime."
In one of the clashes, the Sea Shepherd's futuristic powerboat the Ady Gil, carrying six crew, was sliced in two in a collision with the whaling fleet's security ship the Shonan Maru II in January. It later sank.
The Ady Gil's captain Peter Bethune, 45, subsequently boarded the Shonan Maru II from a jet ski with the stated intent of making a citizen's arrest of its captain for attempted murder and to present him with a bill for the boat.
Bethune, a New Zealander, was detained and is now under arrest awaiting trial for trespass, causing injury, vandalism, carrying a knife and obstructing commercial activities. If convicted who could face up to 15 years jail.
Marlowe Hood Yahoo News 30 Apr 10;
PARIS (AFP) – More than three dozen environment ministers are to meet near Bonn, Germany this weekend in a bid to revive global climate talks left mangled and moribund after the UN summit in Copenhagen.
It will be the highest-level political meeting on climate since the much-criticised December conference fell spectacularly short of delivering the binding treaty that nearly all nations say is needed to spare the planet from the worst ravages of global warming.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Mexican President Felipe Calderon, host to the next UN conference in Cancun at year's end, will kick things off late Sunday, setting the tone for the two-and-a-half-day closed-door brainstorming session.
"It is the return of the ministers, who are there to give political guidance to (technical) negotiators," said Brice Lalonde, France's climate ambassador. "What counts at this point is political initiative."
One avowed aim of the Petersberg Climate Dialogue -- named for the castle where it is to be held -- is confidence building.
Climate talks so far have been "hampered by lack of trust and leadership," German Environment Minister Norbert Rottgen said bluntly in the letter of invitation.
The upcoming deliberations, he added, should "contribute to the necessary inspiration and political direction for upcoming negotiations."
Just how hard that may be was laid bare in Bonn only weeks ago at the first meeting since Copenhagen of the 194-nation UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the main vehicle for global talks.
The only thing that the negotiators seemed to agree on was that the session was tense and riven by mistrust.
"If we see another failure in Cancun, that will cause a serious loss of confidence in the ability of this process to deliver," the UNFCCC's outgoing Executive Secretary, Yvo de Boer, warned at the time.
The Petersberg talks appear designed to sidestep some of the biggest political landmines that derailed Copenhagen, focusing instead on narrower issues where at least some progress has been made such as technology cooperation, verification regimes and fighting deforestation.
"But the question is, can you get incremental progress on some of these 'building block' issues without a full-blown deal on a new treaty," said Alden Meyer, a climate policy analyst at the Washington-based Union for Concerned Scientists.
One of the potential deal-breakers in the long run is a disagreement between the United States and China -- the world's two major carbon polluters -- on how to divvy out the job of slashing CO2 emissions, and whether both countries should face the same legal constraints.
"Washington says that any legal instrument it takes part in must have the same degree of 'bindingness' for China as it has for the US, which China clearly rejects," Meyer said.
Developing countries argue they are not historically responsible for climate change, and thus should be allowed to take purely voluntary steps to help fix it.
Japan and Russia, meanwhile, have become more vocal in saying they will not re-commit to cutting greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol unless both the United States and the developing giants such as China and India accept some kind of commitments too.
The United States was the only advanced economy to reject Kyoto, whose obligations expire at the end of 2012, calling it unfair because it made no demands of major emerging economies.
The fate of the Protocol -- fiercely defended by developing countries -- is as contentious as it is unclear.
One way to avoid failure at Cancun may be simply to lower expectations.
Indeed, all the major players seem to have given up on the goal of a legally binding treaty by year's end that would spell out the path for reducing emissions enough to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the target embraced by the 11th-hour Copenhagen Accord.
Voluntary pledges currently registered in the Accord put Earth on track for a 3.5 C or even a 4.0 C world by 2100, far above the threshold for dangerous warming, said Alden.
A binding outcome this year is "unfortunately" unlikely, Europe's Commissioner for Climate Action Connie Hedegaard said earlier this month, while US chief negotiator Todd Stern last week cautioned that expectations for Cancun must be "realistic."
And on Sunday, the so-called BASIC group of developing economies -- China, India, Brazil and South Africa -- said in a joint statement that a legally binding deal should be concluded at the December 2011 UN climate meeting in South Africa "at the latest".
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