Lewis Smith, The Times 14 Mar 09;
Amid all the forecasts and warnings of doom and disaster issued by climate scientists there is the hidden message that all is not yet lost.
Ice sheets are melting and ocean acidity is rising, yet most scientists still believe that global warming can be controlled.
Climate researchers are clear that since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 the problem of global warming has deepened.
Talk has moved on from looking at probable rises over the next century of 2C or 3C, which would pose problems but be bearable, to increases of 4C or 5C, which would have devastating consequences.
Scientists are under no illusion about the scale of the task, yet most still speak of what can and should be done to prevent temperatures rising.
They believe, as a statement issued at the end of a three-day climate change conference in Copenhagen this week made clear, that most of the tools and technology needed to bring down greenhouse gas emissions are available or at least under development.
Professor Katherine Richardson, of the University of Copenhagen, organised the conference. “I have great faith in humans and their ability to regulate their relationship with this planet that we live on,” she said.
She pointed out that the problems of CFCs destroying the ozone layer, smog and sea pollution caused by dumping had all seemed insurmountable yet had been overcome.
Many of the scientists at the conference cited the recession as an ideal opportunity to turn the global economy green.
With resources at low prices and governments willing to spend huge sums of money to kick-start the economy, they argued that investment in creating a low-carbon economy would reshape society in a way that allowed resources to be managed sustainably and would benefit both rich and poor countries.
But political inaction has frustrated their hopes of getting meaningful measures against climate change, and among the issues that attracted the most debate at the conference was the potential of “unacceptably high” temperatures within the lifetimes of today’s children.
Two years ago it was widely thought that holding temperature increases to a maximum of 2C was achievable if governments made the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50 per cent by 2050. It is now recognised that an 80 per cent cut is needed.
With little progress made in the political world at taking the 50 per cent reductions seriously, let alone 80 per cent, there was a growing feeling that preparations needed to be made to cope with temperature rises of 4C or more. Such rises would have severe consequences for human populations, with the brunt being borne by the developing world but with even wealthy countries likely to suffer disastrous changes to the climate. Food production would be an enormous problem because while the human population is forecast to rise to nine billion, agriculture in many regions would collapse.
The combination of droughts, famine and other impacts, including floods, hurricanes and the spread of deadly diseases, would mean that many millions of people would starve or be killed in wars over resources. Numbers of refugees would be in the hundreds of millions, perhaps even billions, putting untold pressures on other regions.
The potential impact of climate disasters outlined in Copenhagen was cited as the reason why politicians, and the public, have to take the issue seriously enough to force through a political deal.
But while painting a bleak picture of the consequences of inaction, researchers were confident that they could see reasons for hope. Professor Diana Liverman, of the University of Oxford, said that while plenty of problems had still to be addressed, progress was being made in tackling climate change.
“It’s clear that corporations and many local governments have gone far beyond international regulations in what they’ve done,” she said.
Al Gore, the former US vice-president, said yesterday he was confident a global deal to avoid environmental catastrophe would be agreed because a “political tipping point” had been reached.
“There is a very impressive consensus now emerging around the world that the solutions to the economic crisis are also the solutions to the climate crisis,” he said.
He said agreement was likely to be reached when 200 nations meet at the international climate summit in Copenhagen in December to try to get agreement on cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Stern attacks politicians over climate 'devastation'
David Adam, The Guardian 13 Mar 09;
Politicians have failed to take on board the severe consequences of failing to cut world carbon emissions, according to Nicholas Stern, the economist commissioned by Gordon Brown to analyse the impact of climate change.
His stark warning about the potentially "devastating" consequences of global warming came as scientists issued a desperate plea last night for world leaders to curb greenhouse gas emissions or face an ecological and social disaster.
More than 2,500 climate experts from 80 countries at an emergency summit in Copenhagen said there is now "no excuse" for failing to act on global warming. A failure to agree strong carbon reduction targets at political negotiations this year could bring "abrupt or irreversible" shifts in climate that "will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with".
In a significant break from the scientific tradition not to comment directly on policy, the experts insisted politicians must stand up to "vested interests that increase emissions" and "build on a growing public desire for governments to act". They called for a "shift from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society".
Katherine Richardson, a climate scientist at the University of Copenhagen, who organised the three-day summit, said: "We have to act and we have to act now. We need politicians to realise what a risk it is they are taking on behalf of their own constituents, the world's societies and, even more importantly, future generations. All of the signals from the Earth system and the climate system show us we are on a path that will have enormous and unacceptable consequences."
Speaking after giving a keynote speech, Stern said he feared that politicians had not grasped the seriousness of the crisis. "Do the politicians understand just how difficult it could be? Just how devastating four, five, six degrees centigrade would be? I think not yet. Looking back, the Stern review underestimated the risks and underestimated the damage from inaction."
This week's conference was arranged to offer an update on scientific thinking on global warming, and underpin political attempts to agree a new global climate treaty to replace the Kyoto protocol. Campaigners have called for such a deal to be signed at UN talks in December, also in Copenhagen, though officials have warned the discussions could drag on into next year.
Scientists at the Copenhagen meeting will publish its full findings in June, but last night they issued their conclusions as a strongly worded statement"
"The climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived. These parameters include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean and ice sheet dynamics, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts."
The summary adds: "There is no excuse for inaction. We already have many tools and approaches - economic, technological, behavioural, management - to deal effectively with the climate change challenge. But they must be vigorously and widely implemented."
In the conference centre that will also host the December UN negotiations, experts at this week's meeting presented a string of new studies that suggested global warming could strike harder and sooner than expected.
They said carbon emissions have risen more in recent years than anyone thought possible, and the world's natural carbon stores could be losing the ability to soak up human pollution.
The conference also heard that:
· A 4C rise could turn swaths of southern Europe to desert.
· Sea levels will rise twice as fast as official estimates predict.
· Modest warming could unleash a carbon "time bomb" from Arctic soils.
· A failure to cut emissions could render half of the world uninhabitable.
· Rising temperatures could kill off 85% of the Amazon rainforest.
Several experts at the conference warned that temperatures are likely to soar beyond the 2C target set by European politicians, though they are reluctant to say so publicly. "The 2C target is gone and 3C is difficult. I think we're heading for 4C at least," one said. Oxford University yesterday announced that it would hold a conference in September to discuss the implications of a rise of 4C or more.
Kevin Anderson, research director at the UK Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said: "The scientists have lost patience with our carefully constructed messages being lost in the political noise. And we are now prepared to stand up and say enough is enough."
Peter Cox, a climate expert at Exeter University, said: "People have been saying this individually for a long time. This is just a much louder and concerted shout from our community."
Rob Bailey, senior climate adviser for Oxfam said: "The verdict of the world's top scientists is clear. The big question now is whether the worlds richest countries, who created the climate crisis, will act before it's too late. Our climate is changing fast and if left unchecked its impacts, particularly on the world's poorest people, will be devastating."
World's leading scientists in desperate plea to politicians to act on climate change
The world's leading scientists yesterday issued a desperate plea to politicians to act on climate change, amid warnings that without action the world faces decades of social unrest and war.
Richard Alleyne, The Telegraph 13 Mar 09;
In what was described as a watershed moment, more than 2,500 leading environmental experts agreed a statement that called on governments to act before the planet becomes an unrecognisable – and, in places, impossible – place to live.
At an emergency climate summit in Copenhagen, scientists agreed that "worst case" scenarios were already becoming reality and that, unless drastic action was taken soon, "dangerous climate change" was imminent.
In a strongly worded message that, unusually for academics, appealed directly to politicians, they said there was "no excuse for inaction" and that "weak and "ineffective" governments must stand up to big business and "vested interests".
Steps should be "vigorously and widely implemented", they said, to reduce greenhouse gases. Failure to do so would result in "significant risk" of "irreversible climatic shifts", the statement added.
The plea came as Lord Stern, the former chief economist of the World Bank whose report two years ago drew attention to the possible results of global warming, told the conference that unless politicians grasped the gravity of the situation it would be "devastating".
Increases in average temperatures of six degrees by the end of the century were an increasing possibility and would produce conditions not seen on Earth for more than 30 million years, he said.
That could mean massive rises in sea level, whole areas devastated by hurricanes and others turned into uninhabitable desert, he claimed, forcing billions of people to leave their homelands.
He told the summit that politicians continued to underestimate the impact of climate change and that scientists needed to redouble their efforts to get them to understand. "Much of southern Europe would look like the Sahara. Many of the major rivers of the world, serving billions of people, would dry up in the dry seasons or re-route.
"What would be the implication? Hundreds of millions of people would have to move, probably billions. What would be the implication of that? Extended conflict, social disruption, war essentially, over much of the world for many decades."
The British economist was speaking as the Prince of Wales warned that nations were "at a defining moment in the world's history'' over climate change. As he continued his tour of South America, he delivered his most impassioned and urgent plea yet on the need to tackle global warming, saying there were "less than 100 months" to save the planet.
The Copenhagen conference is intended to publicise the latest research on climate change ahead of December's meeting of world leaders. The United Nations Climate Conference, which will also be held in Copenhagen, aims to draft an updated Kyoto-style agreement on reducing emissions.
Under the Kyoto deal, developed nations have to cut emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels by 2008-2012.
However, during the meeting scientists have frequently spoken about how former assumptions about the risks have had to be redrawn. They have repeatedly warned that higher than expected emissions have meant that temperatures will rise at rates far higher than thought just a few years ago. This in turn will lead to disastrous sea level rises, melting of the icecaps and acidification of the oceans.
The weather will also change, scientists warned, resulting in destruction of the rainforests, widespread droughts and flooding.
Prof Kevin Anderson, the research director at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Manchester, said: "Scientists have lost patience with carefully constructed messages being lost in the political noise. We are now prepared to stand up and say enough is enough."
Gore says global climate deal will be reached: report
Reuters 14 Mar 09;
LONDON (Reuters) - Former U.S. vice-president Al Gore was quoted as saying he believed a global climate deal would be agreed in Copenhagen later this year because a "political tipping point" had been reached.
Gore, who won an Oscar for his 2006 climate change documentary "An Inconvenient Truth," said he believed the support of world leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama, and many business leaders, had given political momentum to the issue.
Tackling the global economic crisis would provide a framework for a climate deal, he was reported as saying in Saturday's edition of the Guardian newspaper.
"There is a very impressive consensus now emerging around the world that the solutions to the economic crisis are also the solutions to the climate crisis," Gore was quoted as saying.
"I actually think we will get an agreement at Copenhagen."
He said he had held private talks with Obama last December in which they reportedly discussed the "green" components of the $787 billion U.S. stimulus package.
Nearly 200 nations will meet in Copenhagen at the end of the year to try to seal a new international climate treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol after 2012.
(Reporting by Avril Ormsby; Editing by Katie Nguyen)
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