Dubai built it and the world came

von John Gapper, Financial Times Duetschland 4 Feb 08;

A third flaw is that it is very stratified. The temporary immigrants who build its skyscrapers enjoy few rights and have just gone on strike for higher pay amid a falling dollar and rising inflation. Many businesses are run by expats and pad payrolls with locals to meet job quotas. One British expat jibe has it that Emirates stands for "English managed, Indian run, Arabs taking enormous salaries".

Dubai has not only taken hefty risks to diversify its economy away from oil, but has also adopted a stance of openness that is often unmatched in, for example, the US.
My epiphany about the Gulf state of Dubai came one night in the Souk Madinat Jumeirah. I was standing in the local franchise of Trader Vic's, the Californian Hawaiian-themed bar, with a Mai Tai cocktail in hand, watching people dance to a salsa band.

I was with a bunch of visitors and locals, some of them consultants at McKinsey & Co, which has a large office in Dubai, as have many European and US banks and legal firms. One of the group was from Spain, another from Venezuela and a third from South Africa. Rounding it out were Americans whose parents were variously born in Jordan, Pakistan and Taiwan. It felt as if I had died and gone to expatriate heaven.

There are many jaw-dropping things about the flashiest city-state of the United Arab Emirates (UAE): the rows of office and hotel towers decorated in marble and gold leaf, the miles of coastal salt-flats reclaimed into sandy beaches; the vast desert area where the Universal City Dubailand theme park will go; the new airport that will supposedly be bigger than Heathrow and LAX combined.

But the true astonishment is that the Dubai ruling family's "build it and they will come" philosophy has, since the opening of the Jebel Ali free port in 1979, worked so well. What do you get when you combine expensive infrastructure, the petrodollar boom, no income tax and freedom to behave as you wish? A land where expats outnumber locals 10 to one.

Dubai has its flaws but I do not think any is sufficient to discredit what Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and his father, Sheikh Rashid, before him have done.

They have not only been willing to take hefty risks to diversify Dubai's economy away from oil but have also adopted a stance of openness that is often unmatched in, for example, the US. It soon becomes obvious on a visit to Dubai that the US security alarm in 2006 about DP World reflected a shameful ignorance about the UAE.

Dubai's glaring weakness is that its fortunes are tied to the price of oil. At $100 a barrel, there is a property boom and a party every night in the nightclubs of the Souk Madinat. On paper, the economy is well diversified - only 5 per cent of gross domestic product comes directly from oil. But its role as a trade and shipping centre for the Gulf and wider region makes it dependent on energy in myriad ways.

A second flaw is that it is culturally absurd. It is hard to stop laughing at Dubai's oddness on a first visit. Walk through the Kempinksi hotel by the Mall of the Emirates and you pass a man in a dishdash (a long, one-piece tunic) pouring coffee from a shining pot. A few yards past him is the famous indoor ski slope. Behind that lies every imaginable western store, from Harvey Nichols to Carrefour.

People from nearby Abu Dhabi, which disdains ski slopes and is building outposts of the Louvre and Guggenheim museums on Saadiyat Island, are not alone in regarding Dubai as shallow and amoral. It lacks gambling but is otherwise a monument to western pleasure-seeking.

A third flaw is that it is very stratified. The temporary immigrants who build its skyscrapers enjoy few rights and have just gone on strike for higher pay amid a falling dollar and rising inflation. Many businesses are run by expats and pad payrolls with locals to meet job quotas. One British expat jibe has it that Emirates stands for "English managed, Indian run, Arabs taking enormous salaries".

Natives in many countries complain of being swamped by immigrants but it happens to be true in Dubai. As long as the economy rattles along and the expats keep demonstrating that Dubai needs them, tensions are manageable. But it is easy to imagine tensions getting out of control in an economic downturn.

In spite of all of this - even because of some of it - I admire Dubai. Few, if any, other states have such open borders. Hong Kong and Singapore have built on their colonial pasts to become international trading and financial centres. The City of London benefits from being cosmopolitan. But none of them has taken the plunge so utterly.

In a sense it is an obvious strategy. My companions in Trader Vic's were members of an international elite that grew up after the collapse of the Berlin wall and the triumph of capitalism. They attended universities and business schools where nationality was irrelevant and they have more in common with each other than with many of their own country's people.

If you have the money - as Dubai assuredly does - such people are guns for hire. It is as easy to recruit consultants and bankers to construct a regulatory and legal system fit for an international financial centre as it is to attract the engineers to build highways and skyscrapers.

Apart from money, all it takes is will. Most countries lack it. Politicians have no incentive to award preferential treatment to a bunch of privileged outsiders. The idea that the natives will benefit from opening their borders to others who know more than they do is a tough sell.

There are probably many Washington politicians who realise that the "war on terror" paranoia that has closed US borders to many skilled immigrants is misguided, but it plays in Peoria. Sheikhs have an advantage in this regard: they are not constrained by democracy.

Even so, it was not a natural step for an Arab emirate to open itself to the world. It has produced some odd and some unsettling results but, in the round, it is a brave and clever economic strategy. Mix a cocktail and they will come.

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Amazon research raises tough questions

Michael Astor, Associated Press Yahoo News 3 Feb 08;

Julio Tota stood atop a 195-foot steel tower in the heart of the Amazon rain forest, watching "rivers of air" flowing over an unbroken green canopy that stretched as far as the eye could see.

These billows of fog showed researcher Tota how greenhouse gases emitted by decaying organic material on the forest floor don't rise straight into the atmosphere, as scientists had supposed.

Instead, they hover and drift — confounding scientific efforts to unlock the secrets of the world's largest remaining tropical wilderness.

"What we've learned is the Amazon rain forest is much more fragile and much more complex than we had first imagined," Tota said. "My research is pretty specific. It's aimed at showing why all our measurements are probably off."

Tota is part of the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment, a decade-old endeavor involving hundreds of scientists, led by Brazilians and with funding from NASA and the European Union. Their open-air "laboratories" are 15 such observation posts spread over an area of rain forest larger than Europe.

The project's goal is to make the best scientific arguments for why this vast rain forest — along with other endangered forests in Africa, southeast Asia and elsewhere — is essential to combating global climate change.

But as the first phase of the $100 million experiment draws to a close, its researchers acknowledge that the data have raised more questions than answers.

Scientists can now say with certainty that the Amazon is neither the lungs of the Earth, nor the planet's air conditioner. Paradoxically, the forest's cooling vapors also trap heat, by reflecting it back toward Earth in much the same way greenhouse gases do.

But a key question remains unanswered: Does the Amazon work as a net carbon "sink," absorbing carbon dioxide, or is it adding more CO2 to the atmosphere than it is subtracting, because of burning and other deforestation that have claimed an average 8,000 square miles — an area the size of Israel or New Jersey — each year of the past decade?

Scientists also can't predict every way in which continued destruction of the Amazon — for timber, for cattle ranching, for soybean farming — might affect global climate. But it will almost certainly lead to drier conditions over a wide area, since ground moisture taken up and evaporated through trees is recycled as rainfall.

Some computer simulations suggest deforestation could cause droughts as far afield as the U.S. grain belt, apparently because chain reactions in the atmosphere would shift the Polar Jet Stream and the precipitation it brings.

These questions take on new urgency as global warming's effects become ever more apparent, and as forests fall at a nonstop pace. In one sign of growing concern, Brazil's national leadership met in emergency session on Jan. 24 to deal with a sudden surge in deforestation after a three-year slowdown.

New studies suggest the Amazon may be approaching a tipping point, at which the drier conditions caused by deforestation will reduce rainfall enough to transform the humid tropical forest into a giant savanna.

If preserving the 80 percent of the Amazon still standing would help offset some greenhouse emissions, destroying it would almost certainly accelerate global warming by releasing perhaps 100 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere — equal to some 10 years' worth of total global emissions.

"If you cut down all the tropical forests in the world, you may increase CO2 concentrations by 25 percent," said Brazilian climatologist Carlos Alberto Nobre. "It's important to keep the forests intact because we are in a global warming crisis and it's important not to reach a tipping point from which we can't come back."

Deforestation — both the burning and rotting of wood in the Amazon — already releases an estimated 400 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year, accounting for up to 80 percent of Brazil's greenhouse gases, boosting this country to sixth place or higher among emitter nations.

By contrast, each acre of rain forest that remains intact takes somewhere between 80 and 480 pounds of carbon out of the atmosphere each year through the process of photosynthesis.

The uncertainty in that range hints at the unknowns still puzzling researchers. In the next phase of the grand Amazon experiment, two airplanes will measure emissions higher in the atmosphere, to try to answer definitively whether the rain forest absorbs more carbon than it produces.

Viewed from above, the Amazon appears to be an almost uniform carpet of green, spreading over 2.7 million square miles and nine countries. But in truth, it's home to a wide range of ecological systems and micro-climates.

That's why Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment specialists are helping design development models for each region, from managed logging to fruit farming to the low-intensity harvesting of forest products such as rubber, cocoa, fruits and ingredients for cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.

"We're looking at what all this means for the prospect of sustainability of the Amazon and how we can best inform decision-makers about sustained productivity and land use," Diane Wickland, who manages NASA's Terrestrial Ecology Program, said from Washington.

The experiment has already yielded troubling conclusions, Wickland said. Refined satellite surveillance, for example, finds that selective logging affects about as much area as clear-cutting, adding significantly to carbon dioxide emissions and casting doubt on whether managed forestry can save the Amazon.

Brazilian physicist Paulo Artaxo, a veteran Amazon researcher, said it's essential that Brazil, home to almost 70 percent of the rain forest, sharply slow the destruction of its woodlands. "There is no cheaper way to reduce emissions than by controlling deforestation," he said.

Scientists estimate it would cost about $1 billion a year in lost income for Brazil to end the clearing of forest by loggers, ranchers and farmers, largely giant soybean-growing conglomerates.

At the Bali conference, the world's nations decided to explore possible plans for compensating rain-forest nations for rolling back their rates of deforestation.

That money could come as "carbon credits," in the trading system under the Kyoto Protocol climate pact whereby industrial nations that overshoot their greenhouse emissions quotas can get credit for emissions reductions at power plants or other projects in the developing world. By awarding credits to rain-forest states, richer nations would now also be financing protection of carbon sinks.

The negotiations over such a complex global plan promise to be long and difficult.

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Roads leading to Sentosa and Harbourfront to be upgraded

Channel NewsAsia 4 Feb 08;

SINGAPORE: Roads leading to Sentosa and the area around Harbourfront will be upgraded this year.

The Land Transport Authority (LTA) said this is to prepare for an expected increase in traffic when the integrated resort at Sentosa – Resorts World at Sentosa – is completed in 2010.

When fully upgraded in two years' time, the roads can accommodate 30 percent more traffic.

According to LTA, during peak period, the junction of Sentosa Gateway sees about 6,000 passenger car unit (pcu) per hour. So this is expected to increase to between 8,000 and 9,000 pcu per hour in future.

LTA said the roads affected include the stretch of Telok Blangah Road and Kampong Bahru Road where a single lane will be added in both directions.

Extra lanes will also be added for parts of Sentosa Gateway. For example, the road leading to Sentosa will have two lanes to facilitate vehicles turning left from Telok Blangah Road.

To further ease traffic flow, an existing central up-ramp which links Telok Blangah Road to the city-bound West Coast Highway, will be converted to a down-ramp.

A new up-ramp will be built to link Telok Blangah Road to the city-bound West Coast Highway viaduct.

Once the ramps are completed, it is expected to divert about 20 percent of traffic from this area, saving motorists at least 10 minutes of travelling time.

Paul Fok, Group Director of Land Transport Authority, said: "If we don't do anything to the traffic in the area, you'll probably need to wait at the junction for the lights to turn from red to green three times or even more before you can cross the junctions. With the improvements, we'd expect you to clear the junctions with one or two cycles."

LTA said tender for improvement works will be called soon and the project is expected to start in June.

The authority is also trying out a Parking Guidance System which is an electronic system that advises motorists which parking lots are available, even before they approach the Harbourfront-Sentosa area.

LTA added that this is to further ease traffic congestion caused by drivers who clog up the areas when they cannot find a parking spot.

Signs will be put up at strategic roads to give motorists ample time to decide where to park before they reach the area.- CNA/so

LTA to upgrade Sentosa, Harbourfront roads
Vincent Wee, Business Times 5 Feb 08;

THE road system in the Sentosa-Harbourfront area will be upgraded to cope with an expected increase in traffic when Resorts World at Sentosa and other developments in the area are completed in 2010, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) said yesterday.

'With the opening of the integrated resort, we can expect an increase in visitor and vehicular traffic to Sentosa and these infrastructural improvements will provide a positive travel experience for both visitors to Sentosa as well as residents staying in the vicinity,' said LTA chief executive Yam Ah Mee.

The upgrading works will affect an almost two-kilometre stretch in the vicinity. The works will include the widening of Sentosa Gateway and stretches of Telok Blangah Road and Kampong Bahru Road by a single lane in both directions, relevant ramp modifications to divert more traffic onto the West Coast Highway viaduct and junction widening at Harbourfront Walk and Henderson Road.

This will enable west-bound traffic towards Henderson Road to use the West Coast Highway and bypass Telok Blangah Road and the four traffic light junctions along it, thus saving motorists at least four to five minutes.

According to LTA, the bulk of the traffic along that stretch is heading for destinations within the area such as Vivocity, Sentosa and the Caribbean condominium.

But it hopes to divert about 20 per cent of the traffic onto the viaduct. Current traffic during the evening peak hours is about 2,500 passenger car units (PCUs) per hour.

An average car is equivalent to one PCU, while a lorry makes up about 2.5 PCUs.

Evening peak hour traffic at the critical Sentosa Gateway junction, in particular, is expected to rise from about 6,000 PCUs to about 9,000 PCUs per hour in 2010.

The improvement works are expected to expand traffic capacity of the road network in this area by about 30 per cent, LTA said.

The improvement works will also include a parking guidance system for the area that will advise motorists of parking availability and traffic conditions through signboards at key approach roads.

Tenders will be called soon and the project is expected to start in June with completion scheduled for January 2010, in time for the opening of the integrated resort on Sentosa.

Better traffic access for Sentosa, VivoCity and HarbourFront
Volume likely to rise due to IR, new condos; works to start in June
Maria Almenoar, Straits Times 5 Feb 08;

THE roads leading to Sentosa, VivoCity and HarbourFront will be widened to cater to an anticipated increase in traffic into the area.

With one of Singapore's two integrated resorts opening on Sentosa and new condominiums to be built in the area by 2010, traffic is likely to go up by 30 per cent, said the Land Transport Authority (LTA) yesterday.

The Sentosa Gateway junction at Telok Blangah Road now sees about 6,000 cars during the evening peak period.

By 2010, the number will likely be between 8,000 and 9,000.

LTA director of transport planning Lina Lim told reporters yesterday: 'Without the improvement works, I think we would expect very long queues and not being able to clear junctions...'

The road widening works, expected to begin in June and be completed in 11/2 years, will span a 2km stretch from the junction of Keppel and Kampong Bahru roads to the junction of Telok Blangah and Henderson roads.

These are the improvements to be made:

# An extra lane will be added to both sides of Telok Blangah Road, to give each side four lanes;

# Another lane will be kept specially for cars turning left into Sentosa Gateway from west-bound Telok Blangah Road, to make two left-turn lanes;

# Another lane will be added for vehicles turning right into Sentosa Gateway from east-bound Telok Blangah Road, making three lanes there;

# Adding an extra left-turn lane for vehicles going from Sentosa Gateway to Telok Blangah Road, to make three lanes there.

Other changes: Kampong Bahru Road will be widened, and improvements will be made to the Henderson Road/Telok Blangah Road junction and the HarbourFront Walk/Telok Blangah Road junction.

The viaduct which takes cars overhead, in front of VivoCity mall, will have an extra exit built from it.

An exit will be created near Morse Road, just before Henderson Road, which will enable motorists to bypass the HarbourFront area and at least four traffic lights.

Miss Hwang E-wan, a 25-year-old investment banking analyst who lives along Wishart Road off Telok Blangah Road, is glad for this.

To get home, she usually goes through the jam outside VivoCity.

'The alternative is to use the Alexandra Road exit and then make a U-turn back to my house. This will help me escape all that.'

A VivoCity spokesman said that traffic in the area was generally fine on weekdays but can build up on Fridays, weekends and public holidays.

Sentosa said its plans to increase the number of arrival lanes and to move its admission booths inland would complement LTA's plans.

An electronic parking guidance system will also be introduced in the HarbourFront area.

Large signboards will alert motorists where carpark lots are available, which will cut down congestion by reducing the number of cars circling the area looking for lots.

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Best of our wild blogs: 4 Feb 08

仄爪哇的“大掃除“(The "Spring Cleaning" @ Chek Jawa)
on the colourful clouds blog and wildfilms blog

Otter spotted at Sungei Tampines
on the singapore celebrates the reefs blog with a comment of a sighting (with video clip) of an otter at Sungei Buloh 2 Feb! submitted to stomp

Three raptors in one morning
Stunning shots of predation on the bird ecology blog

Notes to angels
encouraging young writers on the flying fish friends blog

Have a green and happy Chinese New Year!
from the AsiaIsGreen blog

Jumping spider
cuddly spidie on the budak blog

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Singapore resident population stood at nearly 3.6m as of June 2007

Channel NewsAsia 4 Feb 08;

SINGAPORE: The Singapore resident population - comprising citizens and permanent residents - hit some 3.58 million (3,583,100) by end of June last year, compared to 3.53 million (3,525,900) at the end of June 2006.

But the Department of Statistics says the latest figures showed that Singapore's total population as at end of June this year was 4.59 million (4,588,600).

This includes the non-resident population, which increased to slightly over one million by end-June 2007 (1,005,500) compared to 875,500 in the previous year. - CNA/ir

Singapore population hits 4.6 million
Number of foreigners increasing faster than citizens, PRs
Business Times 5 Feb 08;

SINGAPORE'S economic planners think the country can hold 6.5 million people, a size they feel will be ideal to keep the economy humming.

Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, however, feels the optimum population size for tiny Singapore might be smaller, between 5 and 5.5 million.

The latest numbers released yesterday by the Singapore Department of Statistics - after some refinements that exclude persons who were away for at least 12 months continuously, in line with United Nations guidelines - show that Singapore is just less than one million people away from hitting that figure recently suggested by Mr Lee.

Singapore's total population has swelled to 4.6 million - and that was seven months ago.

The drive to attract foreign talent to make up the local shortage is apparently bearing fruit. The number of foreigners who work and live here has crossed the one-million mark.

In the past five years, the figure grew three times as fast as the number of Singaporeans and permanent residents.

The result: foreigners made up 22 per cent of Singapore's total population as at June 2007, up from 18 per cent in 2003. From 2006 to 2007, the number of foreigners jumped nearly 15 per cent to 1,005,500.

Locals and permanent residents rose by less than 2 per cent to 3,583,100.

Away for over 12 months? You won't be counted...
Keith Lin, Straits Times 5 Feb 08;

SINGAPOREANS and permanent residents who stay abroad for a continuous period of at least 12 months are now excluded from its population count.

The move follows Singapore's decision to adopt a recommendation of the United Nations (UN), which considers people who are away from the country for 12 months or more as having their usual residence overseas.

This group includes those studying abroad, working overseas and those who have emigrated but have not given up their citizenship.

With the revision, Singapore's resident population - made up of citizens and PRs - is 3.58 million as at end-June last year.

Including foreigners, Singapore's total population adds up to 4.59 million, below the pre-revision 4.68 million.

The change was announced yesterday by the Department of Statistics.

Calculations from its website's figures show that in the last five years, the number of Singapore residents away continuously for more than 12 months hovers between 70,000 and 90,000.

In 2003, they totalled around 80,000 and 90,000 as at end-June last year.

Demographers interviewed said the revision would prevent double-counting and help the authorities plan resource allocation better.

Calling the move 'sensible', Professor Gavin Jones from the National University of Singapore's Asia Research Institute, said: 'Obviously, somebody who is away for years is not going to be studying in the schools here or using the MRT.'

Consultant demographer G. Shantakumar said the new measure helps the UN resolve the problem of double-counting when it makes global population projections.

'A situation where two countries count one particular person as part of their individual population can be avoided,' he said.

The change does not affect the number of foreigners living here, which is around 1.01 million as at last June, a 15 per cent rise over 2006.

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Malaysia Scraps Plan to Export Pesky Monkeys

PlanetArk 4 Feb 08;

KUALA LUMPUR - Malaysia has dropped a plan to round up nuisance monkeys from its cities and sell them abroad as exotic meat or for medical research, after discovering that most of the animals are too ill to be exported.

In August, the government said it would end a ban on the export of long-tailed macaques after complaints that they were too aggressive and had attacked residents. Animal-rights groups objected, saying the monkeys would be sold to laboratories.

But the New Straits Times said on Saturday the government had now reversed its decision after discovering that the monkeys were riddled with diseases and that no one would want to buy them.

"They were supposed to fulfil the demand for exotic meat in a few countries in Asia and in the West," the daily quoted Natural Resources and Environment Minister Azmi Khalid as saying.

A recent study found 80 percent of urban macaques carried diseases such as tuberculosis, malaria, hepatitis and AIDS, he said. "Only 20 percent were healthy and, of this, only half the number were suitable for export," he added.

The report also quoted Azmi as saying the diseases could pose a threat to human health, but it gave no idea as to how the government now planned to tackle the problem.

Veterinary experts have previously called for relocation programmes, reproduction controls and public education to stop residents from feeding or teasing the animals.

(Reporting by Mark Bendeich; Editing by Jeremy Laurence)

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PM Lee says govt will help mitigate rising costs of food

Channel NewsAsia 3 Feb 08;

SINGAPORE: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has assured Singaporeans that the government will help mitigate the rising costs of food.

Speaking at the Teck Ghee Lunar New Year celebrations, Mr Lee said revenues have been strong and the government will be distributing help – especially to the poor and elderly – in the upcoming Budget debate.

But Singaporeans must also make necessary adjustments.

Mr Lee said: "I expect the inflation to be higher this year than last year, especially in the first half of this year. Last year, the inflation was about 2 percent. This year, it may be 5 percent, it may be even more."

Singapore is not the only country experiencing rising food prices. Prices in China and India are also going up, due to affluence and more consumption demand.

Adverse weather conditions in Australia and China are also sending food prices upwards.

Some measures that the government will undertake to ease the situation are to diversify the country's food sources and encourage consumers to switch to house brands, which are cheaper and give better value.

Lower income families can expect relief in the form of the government's Workfare Scheme, which paid out S$150 million last month, benefiting some 290,000 workers.

The Public Assistance Scheme is also being reviewed.

Mr Lee said: "Most importantly, we need to grow the economy so that incomes will go up. Last year we had a good year, so wages, bonuses went up. And NTUC did a survey and found that last year, the bonuses which workers were getting were the highest bonuses in any year since 1990 - which means nearly in 20 years, we have not had such good bonuses.

"Lots of people are working, unemployment has come right down. We had 230,000 more jobs last year and unemployment has gone down to 1.6 percent."

The prime minister added that being an open economy that imports all its food, Singapore cannot simply control the prices of food essentials as this will hurt the retailers and suppliers, resulting in shortages and queues.

And if the government subsidises these essentials, it will be costly and ineffective as the subsidies would also go to those who are not poor.

Mr Lee said while the government will help, Singaporeans must also do their part to work together to keep the country strong and competitive.- CNA/so

Inflation this year could go past 5%, says PM Lee
Govt will have something to distribute in Budget, but realism needed
Arthur Sim, Straits Times 4 Feb 08;

(SINGAPORE) Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong cautioned yesterday that inflation in the first half of the year could be high.

Speaking at the Chinese New Year Celebrations at Teck Ghee Community Centre, Mr Lee said: 'Last year, inflation was about 2 per cent. This year, it could be 5 per cent, maybe even more. Especially in the first half (of the year), it is going to be high.'

Earlier government estimates last November had put inflation at between 4 and 5 per cent for the whole of the first quarter of 2008.

Speaking to an audience of local residents and grassroots leaders, Mr Lee said what was happening was a global phenomenon produced by increased demand, disease, adverse weather and even the diversion of crops towards fuel production.

But he added that unlike some neighbouring countries, the government would not move to control food prices. Nor would it subsidise 'essentials'.

Touching on next week's Budget, he said that while the government would have something to distribute, especially to the poor and the elderly, there is a need to be realistic. 'We cannot just distribute money and make the problem go away,' he said.

Instead, Mr Lee recommended practical measures, including diversifying the nation's food sources and buying generic house brands which are cheaper and offer 'better value'.

He added: 'Most importantly, we need to grow the economy so that incomes will go up. Last year, we had a good year, so wages, bonuses went up. And NTUC did a survey and found that last year, the bonuses which workers were getting were the highest bonuses in any year since 1990 - which means nearly in 20 years, we have not had such good bonuses.'

For its part, the government will help lower-income families through the Workfare Income Supplement scheme. To date, Mr Lee said $150 million had been paid out in Workfare to 290,000 low-income workers for the month of January alone.

The PM also revealed that the Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports (MCYS) is reviewing the Public Assistance Scheme.

The next few years are, however, expected to be challenging. Mr Lee said that Singapore would need to stay competitive and grow. 'Then, whether it is the Year of the Rat (2008), or the Ox (2009) or Tiger (2010), we will have the resources to deal with the challenges that come our way.'

Giving an idea of how high inflation could rise, Citigroup economist Chua Hak Bin said that 'it would not be out of the question to see inflation hit 7 per cent in February or March'.

He explained that earlier estimates did not take into account the spell of bad weather in China that will certainly put a strain on food prices imported here.

Dr Chua was, however, optimistic that the upcoming Budget will be a 'pro-people Budget' as opposed to the 'pro-business Budget' of last year.

Apart from rebates, he also expects to see the restoration of CPF cuts. Noting that the middle class is also feeling the pinch, Dr Chua also expects to see income tax cut by a percentage point this year, and perhaps followed by another cut next year.

PM: Let's tackle cost fears together
Govt will play part, including in Budget; S'poreans must also make adjustments
Li Xueying, Straits Times 4 Feb 08;

PRIME MINISTER Lee Hsien Loong assured Singaporeans yesterday that their concerns about the rising cost of living, including food prices, have been heard - and are being addressed.

But Singaporeans themselves will, at the same time, have to make adjustments, he said. One suggestion: Go for cheaper house brands.

'We can overcome this problem by working together. People making adjustments, the Government doing its part. We must stay together even during difficult periods,' said Mr Lee.

Speaking to 1,400 residents and grassroots leaders at a Chinese New Year dinner at his Teck Ghee constituency, he, however, rejected calls for the Government to control the prices of essential goods.

'Residents asked, 'Why can't the Government just control the prices?'' he recounted.

His response: Singapore is an open economy and imports all its food.

'We can't just order wholesalers and retailers to fix or reduce prices. They have to pay the overseas suppliers - who will bear the loss?'

If the Government subsidises essentials, it will be 'very expensive, and also ineffective'. As higher-income households spend more, such subsidies will benefit them more than the poor.

It is better to use the money instead to help the needy more directly, he said.

Thus, there are measures such as the Workfare Income Supplement Scheme as well as the Public Assistance Scheme, which is being reviewed.

At the same time, the Government is diversifying food sources, such as by importing frozen chicken from Brazil.

Consumers can also go for supermarket house brands, which are cheaper.

'No need to buy branded bread,' he said in Mandarin to laughter. 'Bread is bread, rice is rice.'

Most important of all is to grow the economy so wages will go up, he stressed.

Noting that 2007 was a good year, with workers receiving significant pay rises and bonuses, he quipped that government revenues 'have not been too bad either'.

Thus, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam will distribute 'a little hongbao' in the Feb 15 Budget, especially for the needy.

'But we must be realistic,' he said. 'I read the wish list for the Budget in the newspapers, all hoping that the Government will give out exciting goodies.

'The Government will definitely help. But we cannot just distribute money and make the problem go away.

'Even with a good harvest, or during Chinese New Year, the Minister for Finance is not the cai shen ye!' he said, referring to the God of Fortune in Chinese mythology.

Inflation here hit a 25-year high in December, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 4.4 per cent from a year ago. In particular, food prices were 5.5 per cent higher.

In a sign that the cost issue is high on the Government's agenda, four Cabinet and junior ministers - besides Mr Lee - spoke separately on it at the weekend, assuring that the Government will help.

The subject took up the bulk of Mr Lee's 20-minute speech, delivered both in English and Mandarin.

He started by noting that the Year of the Rat is beginning under 'more challenging circumstances' compared to previous years.

The financial markets are in turbulence, and the United States economy is slowing.

And the clouds will not be going away soon. In fact, Mr Lee warned that 'we must expect more uncertainties ahead'.

He expects the CPI to be high this year, especially in the first half: 'Last year, it was about 2 per cent. This year, it may be 5 per cent, it may even be more.'

Already, prices of Chinese New Year goodies such as pineapple tarts and bak kwa have increased, he noted.

But putting the grim outlook in perspective, he said that higher food prices is a global problem. Similarly afflicted are Malaysia, Indonesia and even Latin America.

On the whole, though, Singapore is in strong shape: 'We expect the economy to keep growing, though slower than last year. Whatever it is, I am confident that we can weather the storm.'

Calling on Singaporeans to stay with the Government and to keep Singapore competitive and growing, Mr Lee concluded: 'Then, whether it is the Year of the Rat or the Ox or Tiger, we will have the resources to deal with the challenges that come our way.'

Growth, not handouts, the answer
PM: Budget help for poor, but food price controls and food subsidies not on the cards
Loh Chee Kong and Sheralyn Tay, Today Online 4 Feb 08;

EVEN as shoppers feel the pinch of their dollars not going as far as they did in previous years, the Government has stepped in to reassure Singaporeans that it has heard their concerns over the rising cost of living.

In fact, this was the focus of several ministers, including the Prime Minister, at grassroots events around the island yesterday.

To help soften the pain of inflation which hit a 25-year high last year and might get worse this year, the Government "will have something to distribute, especially to help the poor and needy", in the upcoming Budget, assured Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong yesterday.

However, Mr Lee cautioned against expecting unlimited handouts to tide Singaporeans through this difficult time.

"Government revenues have been strong. But we must be realistic — not everything can be solved by the Finance Minister becoming the God of Wealth," he said.

Measures are in the pipeline, with some already underway. For example, further efforts are being made to diversify Singapore's overseas food sources, to help contain rising costs, including the sourcing of frozen chicken supplies from Brazil and fresh fish from Chile.

And despite the growing pain of rising costs, a fresh report from the Ministry of Trade and Industry released yesterday shows that Singapore has one of the lowest rates of food inflation in the world.

The price of food in Singapore has risen 2.9 per cent from 2006 to 2007, while in Malaysia food prices have shot up 3.1 per cent and in Hong Kong by even more, by 4.5 per cent.

One surprising fact: Despite the rise in operational costs, a survey by the Department of Statistics also released yesterday showed that 75 per cent of 1,271 hawker stalls here have not increased prices.

While inflation affecting imported food prices rose to 12.1 per cent last year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for non-cooked sector — food sold to supermarkets, wet markets and shops — registered a 7.1-per-cent increase only.

Pointing to the difference between these two figures, Minister of State for Trade and Industry Lee Yi Shyan Lee said: "We believe that distribution channels like supermarkets and shops have absorbed the difference and not passed the entire cost increase to consumers."

Several outlets in food courts said that they were absorbing the rising costs, for the time being, to retain customer loyalty.

The CPI — which is used to measure inflation year-on-year — for food in Singapore had increased from 1.3 per cent to 1.6 per cent from 2005 to 2006, and then to 2.9 per cent last year.

The MTI expects that while the CPI is likely to be higher this year, especially in the first half, it would rise moderately in the second half.

Singaporeans would have to tighten their belts. "We had a good year last year but this year, we are celebrating Chinese New Year in somewhat more challenging circumstances," PM Lee said yesterday at a Chinese New Year dinner at Teck Ghee Community Club.

Citing the turbulent financial markets and the slowdown in the United States' economy, he said Singaporeans "have to expect more uncertainties ahead as the US problem (credit crisis arising from sub-prime mortgages) has not worked itself out and we don't know how bad it will be".

Singapore has been buffeted by external inflationary pressures — especially on food prices — driven by a myriad of factors, including rising affluence and consumption in China and India; disruption in food supplies caused by droughts and diseases; and farmers switching from growing crops for food to biofuels in face of higher costs of food transportation.

Speaking at a separate event in Keat Hong, Manpower Minister Ng Eng Hen said a supermarket's owner told him that his attempt to turn to Vietnam for cheaper sources of rice was thwarted by the fact that the Chinese had already bought all the rice stocks available.

Singaporeans should not be unduly worried, said Mr Lee.

"When we say that inflation will hit 4 to 5 per cent in the first half of 2008, it is already where we are in January, so we may not see another price hike going forward," he explained.

Still, some hawkers Today spoke to lamented that they had "no choice" but to raise prices as the costs of ingredients such as eggs and cooking oil continue to head north.

Said Mr Tan Kim Leng, who recently raised the price of his fried carrot cake from $2 to $2.50 a plate: "Even when the price of eggs rose I did not raise prices, but now all my basic ingredients cost (20 per cent) more so I have no choice."

Will the Government act to control food prices or subsidise the price of essential items? PM Lee said such a move would backfire, especially when Singapore imports all its food supplies.

Citing the chaos in countries like China and Malaysia as a result of panic buying, the Prime Minister added: "Price control is not something we can do and if you want the Government to subsidise, that's also not a good thing to do because it is very expensive and most of the food will be consumed by people who are not poor."

The most astute solution is to grow the economy and increase wages, he said.

Singaporeans generally enjoyed high pay raises and fat bonuses last year and upcoming projects such as the Formula 1 Grand Prix race and the Integrated Resorts would continue to generate economic growth.

Urging Singaporeans to band together and work with the Government in the months ahead, he said:

"We can overcome this problem. We have to stay together to keep Singapore competitive and growing."

Read more!

Singapore: Most hawkers refrain from upping prices

Tania Tan & Lim Wei Chean, Straits Times 4 Feb 08;

Only one in four has raised prices to cope with higher costs; but some now serve smaller portions

THOSE who sell cooked food are usually not keen on raising their prices, but Madam Chen Yi Ye had to bite the bullet.

The 66-year-old, who runs a Taiwan porridge stall with her husband at the Old Airport Road hawker centre, upped the prices of 10 out of 30 dishes on the menu - including the popular bean sprouts fried with salted fish - by 50 cents.

She said: 'We prefer not to increase our prices, but this time round, we couldn't afford not to.'

Going by a survey by the Department of Statistics, she is in the minority - one quarter of hawkers have jacked up their prices as a result of higher food, fuel and labour costs. The remaining three quarters have held their prices steady since last June.

Minister of State for Trade and Industry Lee Yi Shyan, praising the majority for doing so, said that by not passing on the extra costs to their customers, they have done their bit to moderate the pace of price increases.

Speaking at the Kampong Chai Chee Chinese New Year celebrations at Bedok Central yesterday, he noted that, despite Singapore's having to import most of its food, prices have also been kept steady through a number of measures.

Firstly, the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority has diversified food sources so the country is less at the mercy of supply or other problems from any one source.

Secondly, the open competition in the business environment means customers can go elsewhere if they find the prices unreasonable.

Madam Chen put it simply: 'We'd rather lose profits than lose customers.'

But while prices may be held steady, hawkers can - and do - give smaller portions to cope with increased costs.

Mr Zainal Onan, 45, for example, sells chicken rice in Clementi West daily and chicken briyani as well on Fridays. He said that with briyani, he cannot avoid giving the quarter chicken that is traditionally a part of the dish, so he has raised his price by 50 cents to $4.

With chicken rice, however, he hinted that he can 'control the size of the portions better', while charging the same.

Mr Ang Kiam Meng, who heads the Restaurant Association of Singapore, said restaurants were sensitive to prices and competition was stiff, 'so everyone will try to absorb the cost for as long as they can before passing it on'.

His own chain of Jumbo seafood restaurants has seen prices of crabs, for example, go up from $16 to $24 per kg, but prices of crab dishes there have gone up from $18 to only $22 per kg - barely enough to cover the overall increases in labour, rental, fuel and other costs, he said.

Mr Png Koon Heng, who chairs the Association of Chinese Wheat Flour Merchants of Singapore, confirmed that increased costs are hurting the food industry's bottom line.

The price of a 25kg bag of wheat flour, used to make noodles and breads, has been upped thrice in the last year: by $1.70 on Sept 15, then by $6 on Oct19 and again by $2.80 on Dec 24.

He said: 'Everyone thinks that things are good for us. But we have been feeling the pinch for some time now.'

Even with the price increases, profits have gone down, not up, he said.

He cited his own example: In the past, when his costs were $20, he earned $1.50. Now, his costs are $30, but he still earns only $1.50. His margins have shrunk.

'Nowadays, what most people make is just enough to cover costs. Sometimes, they even have to take losses,' he said.

Read more!

Prices up everywhere, but inflation rate for food low in Singapore

Theresa Tan, Straits Times 4 Feb 08;

Govt casting net wider to source for food; businesses also helping to limit price hikes

FACTORY operator Loke Yew Whye, a 54-year-old father of three school-going children, is finding it hard to cope with rising food prices.

The family, which survives on about $2,000 a month, which he and his wife earn, has been buying house brands from one of supermarket chain NTUC FairPrice's Bedok branches to save money.

Last night, for example, a 5kg bag of FairPrice Thai fragrant white rice cost the family $4.70, half the price of a similar-size bag of Royal Umbrella fragrant rice at $9.50.

Minister of State for Trade and Industry Lee Yi Shyan yesterday urged Singaporeans to consider alternatives, such as by buying house brand products, as a way to cope with rising food costs worldwide.

Last year, food prices were 2.9 per cent higher than in 2006, going by the consumer price index (CPI).

Globally, market forces pushed up food prices.

Record oil prices raised the cost of producing and transporting food, while increasing wealth enjoyed by people in China and India have pumped up demand for meat and other food items, edging them northward.

On the other hand, bad weather reduced crop yield, so the mix of higher demand and lower supply have sent prices up.

Mr Lee added: 'As Singapore imports most of its food, we can't run away from this worldwide trend of rising prices.'

But the Government is not going to step in to impose price controls, he added.

'From the experience of other countries which have done so, price controls have always led to hoarding, empty shelves and black market pricing,' he said.

Instead, the Government is fighting the problem by diversifying its food sources to reduce the impact of supply disruptions from any single source.

For example, the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority has looked beyond Malaysia and China for vegetables. The supply of greens now also comes from Vietnam and Indonesia.

NTUC FairPrice is doing the same with rice and other produce.

Its managing director, Mr Seah Kian Peng, said FairPrice is buying Vietnamese rice, which is 20 per cent cheaper than Thai rice.

NTUC also packages items from cooking oil to soap under its house brand. These are generally 10 to 15 per cent cheaper than branded items, he added.

Meanwhile, it appears that businesses have not passed on the full brunt of increased prices to consumers.

Last December, the prices of imported food increased by 12.1 per cent from prices in December 2006, but the non-cooked food component of the CPI, such as rice and meat, went up by only 7.1 per cent during the same period.

What this means, Mr Lee said, is that supermarkets and shops have not passed on their full cost increases.

He pointed out that inflation among food items here has remained low by international standards.

The Republic has one of the lowest rates of inflation when it comes to food, going by a survey of 14 countries by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Only Japan, Australia and South Korea had lower rates than Singapore.

But the question is: Will food prices continue rising?

Mr Lee said did not know, because food prices were shaped by a variety of factors.

For a consumer like Mr Loke, the rising costs of utilities and public transport, as well, add to his worries. He said in Mandarin: 'The price increases all add up. The cost of living is becoming a bigger burden by the day.'

Singapore's food inflation remains low by international standards
Channel NewsAsia 3 Feb 08;

SINGAPORE: Singapore's food inflation has remained low by international standards, according to a survey of cooked and uncooked food prices worldwide.

The Trade and Industry Ministry (MTI) said while Singapore is not spared from the general increase in global food prices, the survey of 14 countries from 2005 to 2007 showed Singapore had one of the lowest rates of food inflation for all three years.

That is because Singapore's open and competitive environment kept food price increases less pronounced than for most countries.

In 2007, food inflation stood at 2.9 percent, compared to 1.6 percent in 2006 and 1.3 percent in 2005.

The ministry's survey results follow concerns expressed by many Singaporeans that food prices had gone up.

MTI said only three countries – Japan, Australia and South Korea – had a lesser rate of food inflation than Singapore.

Out of the 14 countries surveyed, China had the sharpest increase in food prices last year at 12.3 percent.

The ministry explained that consumers could choose from a wide range of options, allowing them to switch to cheaper alternatives should some businesses charge unreasonable prices.

The Agri-Food & Veterinary Authority has also diversified food sources so that Singapore is less vulnerable to disruptions.

While Singapore has traditionally sourced vegetables from Malaysia and China, the country is now getting them from Vietnam and Indonesia as well.

Imported food prices here rose 12.1 percent between December 2006 and December 2007, but this has not been reflected on supermarket shelves where the prices of non-cooked food rose by only 7.1 percent.

Minister of State for Trade and Industry Lee Yi Shyan said: "What we believe is the distribution channel - the supermarkets and shops - have absorbed the difference, they have not passed on the entire cost difference to the consumers."

Businesses have also played a responsible role in moderating the pace of increases by not passing on the full extent of price increases in their inputs immediately.

Most hawkers, in particular, have shown restraint.

According to the Department of Statistics, about 75 percent of hawkers surveyed held prices constant since June last year.

The ministry said the food component of the Consumer Price Index has increased in recent months.

However, the cooked food price increases have been smaller than those for non-cooked food, and that is an indication that hawkers and restaurants have not passed on all the increases in raw food prices to consumers.

MTI stressed that the rising trend for food inflation is mainly driven by external factors such as the surge in oil prices and adverse weather in supplier countries.

The ministry added that Singapore's best strategy against food inflation is to sustain economic growth over the medium term and create quality jobs for Singaporeans.- CNA/so

Read more!

Word of caution to Singaporeans against excessive spending

Keith Lin, Straits Times 4 Feb 08;

Minister warns that escalating inflation in other parts of the world may cause rapid about-turn in situation here

ALTHOUGH Manpower Minister Ng Eng Hen expects economic growth this year to be between 4.5 and 6.5 per cent, he wants Singaporeans to tighten their belts and cautions them against over-spending.

This is because escalating inflation in other parts of the world could lead to a rapid about-turn in the situation here.

Speaking at a dialogue after a visit to the Keat Hong division of Hong Kah GRC yesterday, Dr Ng said it had become 'quite clear' that living costs had gone up significantly here.

He was responding to a comment from a participant, who said that it was becoming increasingly expensive for low- and middle-income families to eat out.

Putting things in perspective, Dr Ng pointed to the fact that the sparkling economic growth last year had led to a general rise in wages by some 8 per cent. That gave Singaporeans some leeway to deal with the rising living expenses.

The hum of investments generated by projects such as the upcoming integrated resorts will also give Singapore the momentum to deal with short bouts of high inflation, he explained.

But what worried him was that rising costs in other parts of the world, if not dealt with, could spark bigger problems.

'If it's for a discrete period, I think we'll weather it,' he said. 'But whenever this is affecting everyone globally, you may have political disturbances, social consequences and upheavals.'

For example, a protracted spell of bad weather in China has caused the prices of crops there to escalate, forcing the Chinese to look elsewhere for grain supplies. Hence, this exports inflationary pressures.

An anecdote he had heard recently illustrated this point.

Representatives from a major supermarket chain here had gone to Vietnam to seek alternative sources of grain, only to be told by the suppliers there that the Chinese 'have already bought up all the rice'.

Referring to the Chinese zodiac cycle, Dr Ng said: 'The year of the Rat seems to be a bit trickier than the year of the Pig, which was a very prosperous year.'

His advice to Singaporeans: Watch events that occur elsewhere in the world closely and tighten your belts whenever possible.

'Let's band together, look for opportunities, look for ways to approach our problems with confidence,' he said. 'I think if we keep our heads and keep our cool, we will be all right.'

Read more!

Convincing Singapore car owners to switch to public transport: business comments

Switching to public transport
Business Times 4 Feb 08;

Do the new initiatives to transform Singapore's public transport system go far enough? What more needs to be done to convince car owners to make the switch?

Goh Yang Chye
Managing Director
GYC Financial Advisory Pte Ltd

WHAT would convince me to give up my car which has served me well for the last 25 years? Here's my wish list: (Since the authorities intend a bold makeover of our transport system, I have also chosen to be bold and futuristic in my suggestions.)

Major business and commercial hubs like Orchard Road, Toa Payoh, Shenton Way, etc, should have travelators, preferably air-conditioned. This will help us move about from place to place without getting hot and sweaty.

We should explore the use of small electric vehicles that can take you from home to bus stop or MRT station. These would allow you to arrive at your office fresh and cool - and that would be a major incentive to give up the car.

Future towns should be designed with roads in a rectangular grid. This will allow future sub-structures like travelators or small electric vehicles to be used. Towns should have as much integration of space and usage as possible. Much like Bugis Junction on a bigger scale.

Have a premier bus service that you can book and which will pick you up at your doorstep and drop you off at your destination. The cost should be between that of the bus and the taxi.

Track exact time schedules via GPS so that waiting times are certain.

EH Lim
CEO
Avi-Tech Electronics Limited

THE government's plans to transform our public transport system, by improving the public bus service and doubling the rail network by 2020, will go a long way towards making our public transport system even more efficient and better equipped to cope with an increased population.

Car owners might make the switch to public transport if it is seamless, that is, accessible, with short waiting times and longer operating hours. The government will have achieved its goal of reducing cars on the road if the new rail network and bus system are planned and executed well.

Having said that, there are people who will always want to own cars as a status symbol and for greater convenience. Therefore, even if we have the most efficient public transportation system in the world, car owners may not make the switch. To do that, they need a mindset change.

Benjamin Low
Managing Director
S-E Asia, India
Secure Computing

WHILE the public transport plan has been lauded for its objectives to make public transportation comfortable and accessible, I don't think it is good enough.

The plan has only managed to address the train system but not the bus system. Whether the increase in capacity and frequency of the train service will aid in easing congestion during peak hours remains to be seen. Therefore, it is still a challenge to manage peak hour traffic.

Currently, I find it inconvenient to travel from my home in the eastern suburbs to my office in Suntec. For Singapore to take transport planning and services to the next level, the industry needs new blood. The entry of any new transport provider will provide a fresh take to the current model.

As for me, I don't think I'll be giving up my car anytime soon. I'm far too addicted to a lifestyle of convenience especially since I have to transport my aged parents and two young children.

Daniel Yew
CEO
Spinn

WE will get more ingenious solutions if we let a free and competitive market devise ways to convince car owners to make the switch. Although I find the new initiatives encouraging, I thought the Land Transport Authority (LTA) would do a better job at defining the vision, setting the boundaries and objectives, providing incentives and rewards to the market to meet our public transport goals.

There is a huge element of social and public service in public transport and market rewards alone in our small market may not be incentive enough. Here, the government would do well to provide additional incentives.

Leong Cheng Chit Executive Director
Cypress Woods Pte Ltd

FROM the commuter's view point, the main objective must be the reduction in travelling time, including waiting time. I recently took a bus from Stamford Road to Upper Bukit Timah Road during the afternoon peak hours and the journey was one and half hours!

One good integrated public transport system to follow is that of Stockholm, where I was stationed 30 years ago. The buses and trains not only run on time but are also integrated. The fare is priced according to time and you can hop from bus to bus or bus to train.

Tan Ser Giam
Chairman
Eastern Navigation Pte Ltd

HAVING suffered traffic jams in Orchard Road and driving around aimlessly looking for a parking lot, I sometimes wish I could leave my car behind and take public transport. However, the thought of the wait for a bus and the walk in the heat always stops me.

To convince me to take public transport, the service would have to be punctual, comfortable, not too time-consuming, with bus stops and MRT stations not too far from my workplace or home.

The steps proposed by the LTA so far appear to be in the right direction. Whether they are enough to encourage car owners to take public transport will depend on the initial outcome. More bus stops and feeder services can be added as the scheme progresses.

Having new MRT lines in the northern and eastern parts of Singapore is a good move. Even if some of these stations may not have the requisite number of passengers to be profitable, the improvement in road congestion and time saved by commuters will add to the productivity of the economy.

Mark Steele
Chief Operating Officer, APAC
Tele Atlas Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd

We applaud the Singapore government's efforts to create a first-class public transportation infrastructure.

With more transportation services and providers expected in the future, what would complement this initiative would be a comprehensive navigation and routing system showing route options, timing, and fare information. For easier navigation from the bus stop or MRT station to the final destination, such a system could even include a 3D digital map with voice instructions at every turn. Such information could be made accessible through hand phones and wireless devices by simply entering the starting point and destination.This would also make it easier for car owners, who are unfamiliar with the public transportation system, to determine the most efficient routing according to traffic conditions, fare, and timing, and facilitate their switch to using the bus and/or MRT.

Wee Piew
CEO
HG Metal Manufacturing Ltd

I THINK the overriding objective of public transport has to be convenience, comfort and timeliness.

Singapore's compactness and tropical weather make these factors very important determinants for car users deciding to make the switch to public transport.

The proposed new MRT lines and the further integration of the train system and bus services have to ensure that travelling is as seamless as possible. The ideal scenario for the Land Transport Authority to work on will be that the commuter, in any part of Singapore, can leave his home under a covered walkway to reach a form of public transport in less than five minutes. The integrated transport system, whether train or bus, will then take him to his destination in less than 30 minutes with another five-minute walk under covered walkway to his final destination. I believe once such a public transport system can be achieved, many car users will make the switch.

Liu Chunlin
Managing Director
K&C Protective Technologies Pte Ltd

EVERY global city is trying to find its own workable transportation model. I'm not sure anyone ever does - at best the transportation system is an unstable equilibrium and that's something we have to remember in our current effort.

We may become more like London, where people, executive and blue-collar alike, take the Tube. The only way people will make the switch in Singapore is when public transportation coverage is good, when cars are not more convenient and parking charges are prohibitively high, like in London.

Perhaps that will be the trigger point.

However, left on their own, transport companies will like to tap only trunk routes for their commuter payload. They will not have a finer capillary network which offers the public greater access, but which may not be profitable. Here, I detect in the current government initiatives a re-balancing of the free market versus central planning philosophy given the recent woes highlighted.

The supposedly seamless travel from walking to bus or train to another bus or train then walking to reach your destination is believable if you are not in a hurry or if it's not raining or very hot.

The attraction of door-to-door travel via private car is still far too attractive at the present moment. Each segment and each transfer in the supposedly seamless route may have to be looked at in greater detail - from the viewpoint of the commuter.

My wish is that the current transportation initiatives be implemented more quickly. I know there is a lead-time to execute such things. I fear that the impetus may not be strong enough. After all, public transportation takes up more public expenditure and recovery is limited as fares cannot be set too high. With roads, there is the insidious equation of more taxes collected with more cars registered and roads built.

Left on our own, drivers will be hoping somebody else will give up his car and take public transport. It's not easy to give up the car; it's a status symbol and offers personal space and convenience.

So unless public transport becomes very attractive, or car ownership and usage prohibitive, I don't see hordes of car owners renouncing their prized possessions.

Eric Hoh
Vice-President
Symantec, Asia South

THIS comprehensive and multi-faceted plan will kickstart the transformation of Singapore's public transport system. However, it will take more than that to convince Singapore's car lovers to make the switch. There is a significant segment of the population that can afford to own a car as a lifestyle choice. Some of them see a car as a status symbol while others, such as parents with young children and pet owners, drive out of necessity.

We should not try to convince car owners to switch but appeal to them to use the roads less often and to go green. One suggestion is to explore incentives to carpool. Another solution could be to move away from a model that taxes ownership via the COE, to a pure usage-based model that levies charges based on road usage. The premise is that stationary cars in parking lots do not cause congestion, and it is the ones that use the roads that add to the traffic.

Teng Yeow Heng, Michael
Managing Director
TR Formac Pte Ltd

WHILE Singapore is reputed to have good public transport, the authorities could consider improving both bus and rail services to encourage people to switch from private cars.

While taxi fares are generally cheaper than in major Western cities, the recent price hike means it is no longer as cheap as before to use taxis. Therefore, it is only right that commuters should expect a higher level of service. The quality of call bookings should be further improved so that taxis are available when commuters call for one. Bookings should have one common call number and be answered within a minute. The quality of service should be overseen by the Land Transport Authority.

One mode of transport that is neglected in Singapore is bicycles. Cycling is cheap and convenient, does not pollute nor add to traffic congestion. It is also healthy for commuters as they get to exercise. More bicycle stands need to be constructed at bus and MRT stations. Cyclists should be allowed to use pedestrian footpaths while dedicated cycling tracks should be built. Foldable bicycles should be allowed on board our trains and buses too.

Sam Yap S G
Group Executive Chairman
Cherie Hearts Group Int'l Pte Ltd

THE public is getting mixed messages. Cars in Singapore are becoming more affordable and car usage is more attractive than it has ever been. It is almost as if we are encouraged to buy a car and then are scolded for using it. Car ownership is addictive - once you start driving, it's hard to return to public transport. More and better buses and trains is a must but at the same time, car ownership has to be discouraged. Road pricing could help wean drivers from their cars.

The new transport initiatives are welcome. Indeed, by coming up with these bold moves, the government is killing two birds with one stone: curbing carbon emission and alleviating Singapore's traffic problems.

However, it must be recognised that a significant number of car owners will be reluctant to make the switch, especially those who live in private estates, which are not well-served by public transport. Active steps should be taken to enable the public transport network to penetrate these private estates.

Ross Wilson
Managing Director Consumer Products and Services, APac Region
Trend Micro (Singapore) Pte Ltd

THE desire for car ownership is only partly driven by the need to get from A to B. If the "I need to show people how successful I am by buying the most expensive car I can" mindset isn't changed, then any amount of tweaking of the infrastructure is in vain. Singapore already has a first-class public transport system (which I use every day). All that is needed is for it to be extended to those regions not already adequately serviced.

Dhirendra Shantilal
Senior Vice-President, Asia Pacific
Kelly Services

WITH fuel prices up, we might see a temporary shift to public transportation. But most car owners are so used to the freedom of moving around in their own vehicles that they are unlikely to make the switch, unless their transport budget becomes quite unmanageable.

Car owners drive because it saves time, it's convenient and it's a lot more comfortable than public transport. To entice car owners to take public transport, try developing large parking lots at train stations so car owners can ‘park and ride'. Have more childcare centres set up closer to the workplace, so parents don't need to commute to drop off and pick up their kids.

Charles Reed
CEO
interTouch

FINALLY, the recognition that competition for bus routes is good for commuters! The new initiatives signal a positive move towards enhancing Singapore's public transport system. I particularly welcome the fact that the Transport Ministry is investing not only in capacity but also in consumer-centric quality. As more bus routes open up, waiting times are reduced and the hub-and-spoke system streamlined, commuters will enjoy shorter travelling times.

The introduction of real-time travel information is also an excellent move. The restructuring of fare pricing will enable commuters to choose among travel routes. For this to be meaningful, real options have to be made available that would provide the travelling public with the choice of more than one bus service or one mode of transport from point A to point B.

In addition, introducing more public transport options around the clock will cater to those who have to travel during off-peak hours.

Ultimately, a service-oriented and high-tech public transport system will augment Singapore's status as an efficient business hub and improve the basic quality of life.

To further encourage car owners to make the switch to public transport, transport planners can integrate features into the system that would address specific concerns of drivers. For instance, buses and trains can consider implementing pro-family features such as special fare packages, to attract drivers with large families who drive not only for convenience but also for cost efficiency.

Lim Soon Hock
Managing Director
Plan-B ICAG Pte Ltd

THE major initiatives are a step in the right direction, and will increase greater use of public transport.

For public transport to be widely used, it must have the key attributes of being convenient, comfortable, fast and inexpensive. All the touch points in the system must contribute to making the travel experience pleasant and hassle-free.

However, to ensure that it will evolve to become the preferred mode of travel, a fundamental change may be needed.

Given that Singapore is a small country and public transport is an essential service, I believe we have a compelling case for the government to have a stronger hand in ensuring that car owners make the switch: The government should take over the ownership of the public transport system and manage it on a cost recovery basis.

As the single largest employer, the government should also take the lead in encouraging more civil servants at all levels to use our public transport and consider reducing the pool of official cars.

Leaving our public transport system in the hands of the private sector, especially public listed companies, may not fully serve the interests of the public, given that the business objectives are to maximise profit. When the new changes are implemented, it may also be timely to transition to a country-wide implementation of the ERP and do away with road taxes altogether.

R Theyvendran
Chairman/Managing Director
Stamford Media International Group

HOW did a metropolis like London persuade most of its population to travel by MRT? There, cars are mostly used when travelling long distances or during weekends. The answer is the MRT - which must provide ease of travel, comfort and convenience.

Shorter times and easier travel is essential for all commuters. However, car owners can be convinced to make the switch to public transport if they are persuaded that their travel time is also quality time.

The current 'park and ride' scheme should be implemented efficiently, with more multi-storey carparks next to MRT stations. More importantly, the mindset that cars are status symbols must be gradually changed.

So, besides travelling in a public vehicle that is spick and span and punctual, commuters should be able to enjoy current news on television, listen to soothing music, read or work on their laptop.

Brenton Smith
Managing Director and Area Manager, Asia South
CA

THE government's slew of measures to make public transport a desirable alternative to private car ownership is comprehensive and coherent. I think instead of coming up with more initiatives, our focus now should be on executing the above initiatives well. One key way is to better harness technology. Some examples: With more commuters tapping into the Internet for real-time information on bus arrivals, solutions that can stabilise and speed up Web applications will be crucial.

It will be a matter of time before public transport operators move to let commuters top up their fare cards online. When that happens, good identity and access management software will be needed to secure the transactions. In the longer term, operators have to offer more diverse services to a growing pool of commuters, and the need to simplify and unify their IT infrastructures to ease management will increase.

Berthold Trenkel
Chief Operating Officer, Asia Pacific
Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT)

LTA's new plan to improve Singapore's public transport system contains many elements that have proven successful in other countries. However, one item is not emphasised enough that really helps to make the breakthrough: Dedicated bus lanes during peak hours, that is, a discriminatory system that provides speed to those who use the public buses, and reduces the street capacity for cars.

The currently targeted reduction in service differential whereby the use of the public transport system takes 1.5 times that of driving by car is not enough. The municipal government of Seoul made the move with tremendous success. It is never too late to copy a good idea.

Dora Hoan
Group CEO
Best World International Ltd

THE public transport system here needs a radical change in the face of an exponentially growing population. It is commendable that there will be a massive infusion of funding into our public transport system to get people out of their cars and into buses and trains.

However, despite the benefits of switching to public transport - such as reducing air pollution and easing traffic jams - it is not all that easy to do. The fact remains that anyone who can afford a car will own one for the convenience, as well as the status.

It will take some radical changes to encourage people to make the switch. As such, the intervention by way of centralised bus planning by LTA is a sound move.

Important things to consider are connectivity, better service through competition and more choices so that the commuter's journey is as easy as possible.

Derek Goh
Executive Chairman/Group CEO
Serial System Ltd

THE public transport system is a major milestone in the economic transformation of Singapore. It will address the land transport needs for the next 20-30 years as well as spread the economic benefits to the whole island.

The Transport Ministry must work closely with the National Development, Environment and Water Resources, and Trade and Industry ministries to coordinate planning and development of infrastructure for economic activities.

The master plan unveiled by Transport Minister Raymond Lim is quite comprehensive. Let market forces determine the level of car ownership, usage and replacement. Public campaigns are important but at the end of the day it is about the economics of car ownership.

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Heavy rains and high tides have caused Jakarta chaos

Jakarta rains cause travel chaos, widespread flooding
Business Times 4 Feb 08;

(JAKARTA) Heavy rains and high tides have caused chaos in Indonesia's capital for three days, highlighting its ailing infrastructure as roads to the airport became impassable and thousands had to abandon their homes or cars.

The flooding also led to flight delays elsewhere in South-east Asia and served as a reminder to many travellers, including the investors and bankers that Indonesia most needs to attract, of the country's widespread structural problems.

Indonesia requires billions of dollars of investment to build or modernise its airports, roads, railways, and power plants.

Its economic growth has lagged far behind that of China and India, in part because of ailing infrastructure, and the government wants to privatise a raft of state companies, from steel plants to palm oil plantations, to raise much-needed funds.

But following the chaos on Friday, when the capital was brought to a standstill and thousands of people were trapped in traffic jams for over 12 hours due to flooding, some of the very financiers that Indonesia needs to help fund new infrastructure have vowed to avoid the place.

'Memo to self: do not visit Jakarta in the rainy season again,' wrote Hong Kong-based economist Jim Walker in a note to clients after he was stuck in traffic for nine hours trying to get to Jakarta's airport, a trip which usually takes no more than one hour.

'Today's traffic problems are an apt metaphor for Indonesia: stuck in first gear with long periods of sitting around waiting for the jam to clear. The country is stuck with lousy leadership, weak institutions and below-potential growth,' wrote Mr Walker, who now heads an independent research firm in Hong Kong and who for many years was CLSA's well-respected chief Asia economist.

One Jakarta-based banker, who had had to hitch a lift on an army truck for a four-hour ride through flooded roads back from the airport, said that their head office was told not to send out any more investors or staff to Jakarta until the flooding had subsided.

Every rainy season, Indonesia suffers from heavy flooding and landslides. Three people have died and about 100,000 were displaced in Jakarta since Friday due to the heavy rains and flooding.

The chaos in Jakarta also caused air traffic problems in other parts of South-east Asia. When the airport was closed for several hours on Friday due to poor visibility, many flights were delayed and others could not land, leading to long delays in other cities, including Singapore.

By yesterday morning, there were still more than 15 vehicles including vans, buses and trucks trapped in about 70 cm of water on the toll road to Jakarta's Sukarno-Hatta airport and three cranes were brought in to move the vehicles out of the water.

Many cars had been abandoned by the roadside, and rubber boats were used to evacuate people still trapped inside or on the roofs of their vehicles. -- Reuters

Indonesian Floods Displace Thousands, Cause Chaos
Ade Mardiyati, PlanetArk 4 Feb 08;

JAKARTA - Heavy rain and high tides have caused chaos in the Indonesian capital for three days, forcing thousands to abandon homes or cars and cutting the roads to the airport, highlighting the city's inadequate infrastructure.

The flooding delayed flights elsewhere in southeast Asia and reminded travellers, including the investors and bankers Indonesia most needs to attract, of its pressing problems.

Indonesia needs billions of dollars of investment to build or modernise airports, roads, railways and power plants.

Its economic growth has lagged far behind that of China and India, partly because of its crumbling infrastructure, and the government wants to privatise many state companies, from steel plants to palm oil plantations, to raise urgently needed funds.

The chaos on Friday, when flooding brought the capital to a standstill and trapped thousands in traffic jams for more than 12 hours, pushed some of the financiers Indonesia needs to threaten to avoid the country.

"Memo to self: do not visit Jakarta in the rainy season again," wrote Hong Kong-based economist Jim Walker in a note to clients after taking nine hours to get Jakarta airport, normally a journey of no more than one hour.

"Today's traffic problems are an apt metaphor for Indonesia: stuck in first gear with long periods of sitting around waiting for the jam to clear. The country has ... lousy leadership, weak institutions and below-potential growth," wrote Walker, formerly CLSA's chief Asia economist, now head of an independent research firm in Hong Kong.

One Jakarta-based banker, who took four hours to get to town from the airport after hitching a ride on an army truck, said he had told his head office not to send any more investors or staff to Jakarta until the floods had subsided.

RAIN, FLOODS, LANDSLIDES

Every rainy season, Indonesia suffers from heavy flooding and landslides. Three people have died and 100,000 have been displaced in Jakarta since Friday because of rain and floods.

The chaos in Jakarta caused air traffic problems in other parts of the region. The airport was closed for several hours on Friday by poor visibility, meaning many flights were delayed and others could not land, leading to a backlog and long delays in other cities including Singapore.

On Sunday morning, there were still more than 15 vehicles stuck in 70 cm (28 inches) of water on the toll road to Jakarta's Sukarno-Hatta airport and cranes were brought in to remove them.

"Passengers who are trapped in the floods are being evacuated with rubber boats and transferred to buses to take them to the airport," Wawan, of toll road management company PT Jasa Marga, told Reuters by telephone.

Rustam Pakaya, a health ministry official, said three people had died in west Jakarta and nearly 100,000 people were displaced, but few had reported diarrhoea or other problems.

Vera Yolanda Sari, a frustrated Jakarta resident, blamed the floods on poor planning and the clogging up of rivers by residents dumping trash.

"It is the city development that is not well planned, like constructing a building without considering the catchment area for water to be absorbed," said Sari.

Agus Subardono, deputy head of the city planning department, denied overbuilding was a key factor behind the floods. "It is the geographical location of Jakarta, on low land, and natural phenomena like high tides and heavy rain," Subardono said. (Writing by Sara Webb; editing by Tim Pearce)

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China wrings itself dry to ensure Olympic Games' success

Every drop goes to the Olympics
The Daily Telegraph, Today Online 4 Feb 08;

HEBEI — China is planning to divert billions of litres of water hundreds of miles from drought-stricken regions to feed Olympic development in the capital Beijing.

Workers are struggling to finish the first phase of a huge canal to meet a surge in demand for water, fuelled by construction projects and the hundreds of thousands of athletes and visitors at the Games in August.

The project is under attack as an expensive, makeshift attempt to counter China's environmental crisis with another environmentally damaging mega-project.

But the decision to speed up part of it before the Olympics also highlights the price ordinary people are paying for Beijing's new showpiece buildings and associated lakes, fountains and gardens.

They include farmers already suffering from shrinking reservoirs that can no longer feed their irrigation systems.

Some have abandoned traditional crops such as rice, others have given up land to the desert that is encroaching on swathes of the country, and others are switching to livestock, a problem that is making the arid conditions worse.

"I had to give up watering my land," said Mr Dong Zhiwen, 34, a goat-herder near the edge of a deep section of canal being dug through Hebei province to Beijing's south.

"My land was irrigated before, and I could grow wheat," he said. "From the beginning of this year, there has been no water supply."

The water shortage is one of the most visible consequences of the country's inefficient use of resources, climate change and the pressure from its growing population and booming economy.

Beijing has water reserves of 250,000 litres per head of population, government figures show. This is an eighth of the Chinese average, and a thirtieth of the world average. The south-north water diversion project is the £30-billion ($83.5-billion) solution.

Three enormous canal systems are planned — and two already under construction — to take water from the Yangtze in central China to the Yellow river and Beijing in the north.

"We will have to cut down water irrigation to the fields," said Mr Miao Shunyao, an official with the Xidawang water authority. "Those in the north of the province have to give up rice paddies to grow corn to cut down water."

The Xidawang reservoir is already at its lowest point ever, after constant use for irrigation and to supply the nearby major city of Baoding. Most residents say it is a sacrifice they are prepared to make for the Olympics. "The Olympics is a very big event for the whole country," said Mr Miao.

But in a scathing article published in New York last month, Mr Dai Qing, the country's most outspoken environmentalist and critic of the Three Gorges Dam, attacked the country's leaders.

"While they have created previously unknown wealth, it is a wealth made possible by the avaricious consumption of natural resources," she wrote.

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ExxonMobil earns $58b, highest ever for any company

New York Times, Straits Times 4 Feb 08;

NEW YORK - BY ANY measure, ExxonMobil's performance last year was a blowout.

It reported last Friday that it had beat its own record for the highest profits ever recorded by any company, with net income rising 3 per cent, to US$40.6 billion (S$57.5 billion), thanks to surging oil prices.

Its sales of more than US$404 billion exceeded the gross domestic product of 120 countries. It totted up profits at a pace of more than US$1,287 a second.

It also had its most profitable quarter ever, as net income rose 14 per cent, to US$11.7 billion, or US$2.13 a share.

Exxon beat analysts' expectations of US$1.95 a share, after missing targets in the earlier two quarters.

Like most oil companies, Exxon benefited from a near-doubling in oil prices as well as higher demand for petrol last year. Crude oil went from around US$50 a barrel to almost US$100.

'Exxon sets the gold standard for the industry,' said Mr Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Oil companies have all reported strong profits.

Chevron said last Friday that its profits had risen 9 per cent last year to US$18.7 billion. Royal Dutch Shell last Thursday said its net income had risen 23 per cent to US$31 billion.

Not surprisingly, there was a swift backlash against the industry.

One advocacy group, The Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights, called the profits 'unjustifiable'. Some politicians said Congress should rescind the tax breaks awarded two years ago to encourage oil companies to raise investments in the United States and domestic production.

'Congratulations to ExxonMobil and Chevron - for reminding Americans why they cringe every time they pull into a gas station,' said Senator Charles Schumer.

Exxon vigorously defended itself against claims that it was responsible for the rise in oil prices. Anticipating a backlash, it had run advertisements to highlight the size of the investments it makes to find and develop energy resources - more than US$80 billion between 2002 and 2006, with an additional US$20 billion planned for this year.

It said that over the next two decades, energy demand should grow by 40 per cent.

'Our earnings reflect the size of our business,' vice- president for public affairs Kenneth Cohen told journalists. 'We hope people will focus on the reality of the challenge we face.'

Given gloomy prospects for the US economy, some analysts said oil company profits could soon peak.

Oil prices could fall this year if a slowdown dampens energy consumption in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer.

Such concerns have pushed oil futures prices down about 10 per cent since the start of the year. Oil fell 3 per cent to US$88.96 a barrel last Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Exxon shares fell a half a per cent, to US$85.95.

Some analysts said high oil prices, and the record profits they create, were masking growing difficulties at many of the major Western oil giants.

Faced with resurgent national oil companies - like PetroChina and Gazprom in Russia - the Western companies are having a hard time increasing production and renewing reserves.

Countries like Russia and Venezuela have tightened the screws on foreign investors in recent years, limiting access to energy resources or demanding a bigger share of the oil revenue.

At the same time, many traditional production regions, like the North Sea, are slowly drying up.

Western majors, which once dominated the global energy business, now control only about 6 per cent of the world's oil reserves.

Last year, PetroChina overtook Exxon as the world's largest publicly traded oil company.

NEW YORK TIMES

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