Best of our wild blogs: 9 Mar 09

Pedal Ubin!
on the Running with the Wind blog and on the Just across the Horizon blog

No fishing at West Coast Park: Nobody gives a damn
on the Lazy Lizard's Tales blog

Crab in the bryozoans
on the wonderful creation blog

Back to Berlayar
on the wild shores of singapore blog

Discover Semakau
on the Where Discovery Begins blog and manta blog and Running with the Wind blog

Malay Cemetery
on Ubin.sgkopi

Moulting of a male Black-throated Sunbird
on the Bird Ecology Study Group blog

Autumn colours on our shores
on the wild shores of singapore blog

"No avian flu here but this bird can spread other diseases" on the Lazy Lizard's Tales blog and chickens running free in Changi and flowerless plant blossoms and shocking to find rat at T3.

Monday Morgue: 9th March 2009
on the Lazy Lizard's Tales blog

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Overhaul bumboat services to Pulau Ubin

Straits Times Forum 9 Mar 09;

I CANNOT but agree with the observations of Mr Jervis Lim in his letter last Friday, 'Rude bumboat service at Changi ferry terminal', in which he expressed his dissatisfaction over the service provided by bumboat operators. It is time the system was overhauled to reflect changing times and conditions.

As a regular visitor to Pulau Ubin and Penggerang, I feel the Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) should take over all operations. This will ensure the ferry tragedies of the Philippines and Indonesia will not become a feature of our maritime sector. According to the MPA website, the statutory board was established to 'advance and safeguard Singapore's strategic maritime interests'. It also proudly proclaims that it partners other agencies 'to enhance safety, security and environmental protection of our port waters, facilitate port operations'.

Changi ferry terminal is very crowded on weekends, public holidays and during school holidays as hordes of schoolchildren make a beeline for Ubin. Currently, there is no ticket sales and the bumboat operator collects fares himself from passengers. The operator is usually irked when a passenger offers him a big note. On several occasions, I noticed the bumboats were far from seaworthy and during a heavy shower, the roofs leaked and I had to hold an umbrella to protect myself from the rain.

To revamp the system, perhaps MPA could employ these bumboat operators (so they do not lose their livelihood) and provide them with proper uniforms, which will improve their public image. MPA could also regularly check the bumboats for seaworthiness.

As a seasoned visitor to Ubin since the fare was only $1 (it is now $2.50), I hope MPA will not ignore this problem. With the influx of tourists, more foreigners will flood Ubin, whose flora and fauna have much to offer. If MPA is not keen, perhaps the Singapore Tourism Board can take over operations and make Ubin an attraction to draw more tourists to Singapore.

Heng Cho Choon

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Five CNG stations not enough,say taxi drivers

Time to pump up the volume
Ong Dai Lin, Today Online 9 Mar 09;

FOR two weeks, compressed natural gas (CNG) taxi driver, Mr Ng Buck Swee, had to wait at least an hour to refuel at the Mandai CNG pump station, which was having problems with its pumps.

The 50-year-old told Today last week: “Only four out of the 16 pumps are working ... It has been like that since the Chinese New Year week but since last week, the pumps have been spoilt almost everyday.”

When contacted on Thursday, Smart Energy, which runs the Mandai Link CNG station, told Today it had “maintenance issues” with its pumps but the station is now fully operational.

Over the fortnight, according to Mr Ng, as many as 40 CNG taxis were queuing at the pump station during the shift-change hours. Every hour spent waiting at the pump station meant a loss of $20 to $30 in income, the cabbie added.

Smart Energy’s managing director William Aw said the pump station had relied on a secondary compressor as a back-up. “However, due to the lower output capacity of the secondary compressor, it can only handle four dispensers simultaneously,” he said.

The company has purchased another compressor system to complement the current setup, which is expected to be in place later this month, he said.

Such woes are not the first encountered by drivers of CNG vehicles.

In January last year, a pump breakdown at the CNG station on Jurong Island — the only one that was operational then — also lasted for two weeks, hitting taxi drivers who were already struggling with low takings due to a fare hike.

As of this January, there were 1,009 CNG taxis and some 2,500 CNG vehicles in Singapore. But there are only three CNG pump stations in Mandai Link, Jalan Buroh and Jurong Island.

Two new stations will open this year: One in Serangoon North under Smart Energy later this month and the other along Old Toh Tuck Road under Union Energy in August.

While the new stations should help ease woes, taxi drivers like Mr Goh Teow Wah still have some concerns: “We need more stations ... there should be one pump station in each area. For instance, if I’m at Changi Airport and my car has no gas, how to travel to Mandai to pump?

“There are a lot of CNG cars now on the road. And more people will drive CNG cars if there are more pump stations.”

Mr Tan Soon Chye, general manager of Prime Taxis, suggested that pump stations be set up in a central area like Bukit Merah.

“The Government can provide some incentive for used cars to be converted to CNG. Even allowing used private cars to be converted to CNG and used as taxis will accelerate the CNG programme here,” he said. Prime owns 450 CNG taxis.

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Singapore should lead region in emission cuts

It has the knowledge, technology, vision to share with neighbours, says European Commission delegation head

Jamie Lee, Business Times 7 Mar 09;

SINGAPORE should lead in pushing regional countries to cut their carbon emissions, says a representative of the European Commission (EC).

The issue could be made an agenda item at the economic leaders' meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec), chaired by Singapore this year, according to EC head of delegation Holger Standertskjold.

'I would like to see Singapore taking that active role and be a leader,' he told BT. Singapore has the 'knowledge, technology, vision' to share with its neighbours, he added.

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change - a body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme - has urged that developing countries limit emissions growth to 15-30 per cent below business-as-usual levels by 2020.

'This means concrete action to limit the emissions from energy generation, the transport sector and the buildings sector,' said Mr Standertskjold. 'It also means real action to limit deforestation in the region.'

He said that the Apec meeting - to be held in Singapore in November - could provide a 'building block' for the Copenhagen Climate Conference to be held a month later. The Copenhagen conference will focus on producing a global framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, which expires in 2012.

'If we want to find a robust agreement in Copenhagen, much more preparatory work needs to be done in terms of concrete emission limitation or reduction contributions by developed countries, actions by developing countries and support for actions in developing countries,' said Mr Standertskjold. 'The Apec meeting provides an opportunity for doing so.'

No carbon reduction targets have been set by Apec, although in 2007, it set an 'aspirational goal' of reducing energy intensity by at least 25 per cent by 2030, from 2005 levels. It also has a similar goal to increase forest cover by at least 20 million hectares of all types of forests by 2020.

Despite Singapore's small size, the country has a bigger role to play, according to Mr Standertskjold.

He said that while Singapore is not a major contributor to global carbon emissions, it has high per capita emission, excluding emissions from the aviation and maritime sectors.

The European Union is advocating the inclusion of emissions from the aviation and maritime sectors in any agreement reached in Copenhagen.

A 2004 UN report showed that Singapore's carbon emission to be a mere 0.2 per cent of global emissions.

But the same report showed that Singapore's carbon emission per capita - or the amount of emitted carbon dioxide divided by population - to be 12.2 tonnes, putting it in the same league as many developed countries in Europe. Singapore is defined as a developing nation under the UN's climate treaties.

Two weeks ago, Singapore's chief climate change negotiator Chew Tai Soo, defended the country's high per capita emission, saying that the measurement approach is 'flawed'.

'It penalises small countries with small populations, without taking into account their limitations,' he told a conference, adding that Singapore has no natural resources, depends heavily on trade and is less able to switch to non-fossil energy alternatives because of its land size.

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Two takes on the severity of the climate threats

Lee Poh Onn, Straits Times 9 Mar 09;

DOES climate change matter at all? Has global warming been exaggerated? Is it a hoax?

A working paper issued by the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in November last year suggested that the impact of climate change on global economic growth may not be as severe as previously believed.

This contradicts the claim of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change issued by British economist Sir Nicholas Stern in 2006. He had suggested that an investment equal to 1 per cent of global GDP would be required to ward off the detrimental effects of climate change. If nothing were done, global GDP might fall by as much as 20 per cent, he suggested.

The NBER paper noted that higher global temperatures would have an impact on poor countries but not rich ones. An increase of 1 deg C will reduce economic growth by about 1.1 percentage points in poor countries. Rich countries will be able to ward off the impact of global warming.

Since rich countries make up the bulk of global GDP, their ability to minimise the effect of global warming will mean that the impact of climate change on the global economy will be limited. The NBER study, however, does not take into account the fact that political unrest caused by climate change in poor countries may affect rich countries as well. If this is taken into consideration, global GDP may be affected by climate change.

To place doubt as to the necessity of cutting carbon emission immediately, there is evidence to suggest that global temperatures may have been cooling rather than warming since 1998, and that climate change could be linked to activities on the sun rather than on human action. Evidence is still anecdotal at this point but is gathering momentum nevertheless. One scientist who questions the link between human actions and global warming is Dr Will Happer of Princeton University, who served as director of energy research at the US Department of Energy from 1990 to 1993.

Does that mean we should stop all measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions?

The potential negative impacts of climate change on the global economy cannot be disputed though the strength of the causal relationship bears further study. Regardless of which faction in the climate change debate is correct, the climate change movement has generated a new sense of environmental awareness.

Another positive from the climate change movement is the search for alternative fuels. It has been estimated that we have about 75 years of fossil fuels left. Long before we reach that point, markets will be subject to massive swings in oil prices. Despite its flaws, the climate change movement has helped to spur the search for alternative fuels.

The writer is a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

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Climate change: Heeding the signs

The three-day International Scientific Conference on Climate Change will take place in Copenhagen, Denmark, from tomorrow, when scientists will outline their latest findings. Writers give their take on the state of debate on global warming, as we move towards December's international climate talks.
Michael Richardson, Straits Times 9 Mar 09;

Governments can run - but they can't hide

RESEARCHERS from around the world will meet in Denmark tomorrow to discuss the latest scientific findings on climate change.

The three-day international gathering at the University of Copenhagen is sponsored by a consortium of 11 research universities in Europe, the United States, Asia and Australia, including the National University of Singapore. It is part of the lead-up to a conference in Copenhagen in December to try to agree on a global framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol.

One of the questions the conference will consider is whether the evidence on the pace, scope and consequences of climate change presented to governments less than two years ago is already significantly out of date, and whether there should be more frequent reports.

The present process is cumbersome and lags well behind advances in research. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the United Nations in 1988, brought together hundreds of experts from around the world to assess the science and policy implications of global warming.

Since 1990, the IPCC has published four assessment reports. The next is not due until 2014. The most recent, in November 2007, concluded that the Earth's temperature is likely to rise by between 1.1 deg C and 6.4 deg C by 2100, depending on how much greenhouse gas is released into the atmosphere in coming decades.

One of the lead authors of that report said last month that it had probably seriously underestimated the consequences of climate change. Professor Chris Field of Stanford University said: 'We now have data showing that from 2000 to 2007, greenhouse gas emissions increased far more rapidly than we expected, primarily because developing countries...saw a huge upsurge in electric power generation, almost all of it based on coal.'

He said that he was particularly concerned about new evidence that tropical forests would dry out and catch fire, and that permafrost in the Arctic would thaw, releasing enormous amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, an even more potent global warming gas, into the atmosphere.

Meanwhile, other recent studies forecast that sea levels will rise substantially higher by 2100 than the IPCC had projected and that the capacity of oceans to soak up excess carbon dioxide is declining. The oceans, forests, vegetation and soil absorb about half of all man-made carbon dioxide emissions.

In January, a team of US and European scientists published a study demonstrating how changes in surface temperature, rainfall and sea level would be largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide emissions are completely stopped. Dr Susan Solomon of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said: 'Our study convinced us that current choices regarding carbon dioxide will have legacies that will irreversibly change the planet.'

Not all the recent research on climate change have dire conclusions. One study suggests that the tropical forest in the Amazon basin may be less vulnerable to temperature rise than previously believed. Another concludes that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which accelerated in the early part of this decade, has slowed again.

Dr Vicky Pope of Britain's Meteorological Office says that there will always be natural variations in climate trends. However, she adds that the implications of climate change are profound and will be severe if greenhouse gas emissions are not cut 'drastically and swiftly'. The message from scientists to political leaders trying to focus on the global recession is this: You may try to run from the costs of the climate change challenge, but ultimately, there is nowhere to hide.

The writer is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

Tackling the challenges to trade
Barry Desker & Deborah Kay Elms, Straits Times 9 Mar 09;

THE Copenhagen Summit in December will discuss the replacement for the Kyoto Protocol. Whatever comes out of Copenhagen will likely involve more states following more stringent rules designed to mitigate the environmental damage from global warming. Copenhagen will have a direct impact on trade policy. Three inter-linked challenges face us in tackling the relationship between climate change and trade.

# First, the impact of climate change is not evenly distributed across states.

The poorest people and the poorest countries may end up suffering the most. Developing regions are already warmer, on average, than the developed world. They rely heavily on agriculture. Changes to the climate that negatively affect the ability of farmers in the developing world to grow crops will have many trade-related impacts.

# Second, the contribution of each state to the problem is different. Hence, any post-Kyoto regime will have different rules for different categories of states.

But these distinctions may give rise to potentially unfair outcomes. For instance, there may be an environmental 'race to the bottom' as firms relocate to states with relatively lax policies. To offset this trade advantage, many states are planning a range of interventions for climate-related trade businesses, including subsidies.

# Finally, the ability to develop, deploy and pay for mitigation strategies varies across states.

Take, for example, the prospect of more extreme weather events. Some states will simply be unable to prepare adequately for such calamities as floods or droughts. Others will be overwhelmed by events when they occur.

Three other issues should also be considered in discussing the nexus between climate change and international trade. First, some observers have suggested that climate change disputes could be handled by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). After all, the WTO has the best mechanisms already in place for addressing disputes. Since many of the disputes will have trade implications, the WTO might be well-positioned to resolve many of these state-to-state disagreements.

Yet the attempt to do so might well overwhelm the WTO system. Its dispute settlement mechanism may be overloaded precisely because member states and customs territories recognise that it is effective and will result in legally enforceable decisions. Some new mechanism will need to be created to resolve climate change disputes.

A second area of concern is that climate change negotiations are increasingly being led by trade negotiators. There is a risk that mercantilist approaches and an insistence on package deals may take hold in Copenhagen. If we export the concept that 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed' - a staple of WTO negotiation - we will set the stage for failure in Copenhagen.

Most governments have traditionally regarded attention to climate change as imposing a cost on economies and an impediment to economic growth. With the global economy heading into recession, governments will increasingly focus on immediate threats rather than those that appear over the horizon. The ability to reach significant binding agreements in Copenhagen may be threatened by the current gloomy global economic outlook.

Barry Desker is dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. Deborah Kay Elms is the head of the Temasek Foundation Centre for Trade and Negotiations, RSIS.

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Less carbon can mean more growth

Jeroen van der Veer, Straits Times 9 Mar 09;

DESPITE the global recession, the world must continue to focus on the threat of climate change. Policy can serve the twin goals of stimulating growth and fighting global warming.

The broad outlines of an effective response to global warming are clear: A system to cap carbon emissions and trade emission allowances would channel resources towards the most cost-effective reduction measures. And widespread adoption of efficiency standards for appliances, vehicles and buildings would help us use less energy. Several specific policy initiatives could help us control the emission of greenhouse gases.

# Agreements among groups of key countries to reduce emissions in specific industrial sectors.

# Incentives to capture carbon dioxide and store it safely underground.

# Funds to support the development and demonstration of new technologies, such as advanced biofuels, with high potential for lowering carbon dioxide emissions.

Until now, negotiators have aimed for a global deal palatable to developed and developing countries alike. While that remains the ultimate goal, it has proven devilishly complex to formulate. A stepping stone would be agreements between pivotal countries to cap emissions in high-emitting sectors. Such agreements could be building blocks for a broader deal. Sectors to focus on include power generation, which accounts for about 35 per cent of global carbon emissions. For example, a pact on the emissions of coal-fired power stations might include large users such as China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan and the United States, which together account for about 80 per cent of global coal-fired capacity. Such a deal could include mechanisms for transferring clean coal technology from developed to developing countries.

The need is urgent. Asia will build about 800 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity over the next 10 years, equal to the EU's total electricity generating capacity today. Once built, the plants will emit four billion tonnes of carbon dioxide each year - about the same as the EU's total energy-related emissions.

Climate negotiators should also give carbon capture and storage (CCS) high priority. While renewable and nuclear energy will help reduce emissions, they will not be able to keep up with energy demand. Fossil fuels will remain the world's main sources of energy for decades. 'Cleaning up' carbon is thus a vital bridge to a low carbon future. CCS may contribute up to 55 per cent of the reductions in emissions that scientists believe are necessary.

But firms are reluctant to invest in CCS as it adds substantial cost and generates no revenue. Policymakers should promote CCS. They can put a price on carbon emissions; and CCS can be recognised within the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, through which developed countries can invest in emission reduction projects in developing countries.

No one knows if the economic crisis will last months or years. But a good outcome at the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen later this year will serve the world for decades to come.

The writer is the chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell.

PROJECT SYNDICATE

Asia needs to commit itself to clean energy
Dennis Posadas, Straits Times 9 Mar 09;

ASIANS need to adopt clean energy quickly if they wish to avert the adverse consequences of climate change. Climate change threatens Asian countries with a rise in sea levels that may destroy low-lying coastal areas. And it will increase the intensities of the storms that pass through countries like the Philippines annually.

Fortunately, many Asian governments have now started to legislate clean energy mandates similar to those in Europe and the United States. These mandates often feature incentives to spur the development of clean energy and require power utilities to purchase a certain percentage of their power from such sources.

Unfortunately, even with such laws in place, there is a lack of commitment to clean energy. From being a top priority when oil cost US$140 a barrel, it is once again an afterthought. This resembles what happened in the 1970s and 1980s: After the Opec oil crises had passed, the solar panels that had been on the roof of the White House were removed. Blowing hot and cold on renewable energy is not the way to encourage its development.

Mandate or no mandate, it would be difficult for utilities to justify large capital investments in clean energy if consumers are not willing to commit themselves to it. The utilities may try to comply minimally with the mandates but not go all out. Investors will find it difficult to justify funding research and development in renewable energy if the market demand for clean energy fluctuates. It is only when the price of electricity is expensive that clean energy sources are competitive.

A steady growth market for renewable energy, decoupled from the price of oil, needs to appear. Otherwise we will not see that combination of economies of scale and innovation, which saw the price of personal computers and semiconductors drop, repeat itself itself in renewable energy.

The writer is the author of Jump Start: A Technopreneurship Fable.

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Skeptics Gather to Discuss Why Global Warming Isn’t Such a Big Worry

The New York Times 8 Mar 09;

More than 600 self-professed climate skeptics are meeting in a Times Square hotel this week to challenge what has become a broad scientific and political consensus: that without big changes in energy choices, humans will dangerously heat up the planet.

The three-day International Conference on Climate Change — organized by the Heartland Institute, a nonprofit group seeking deregulation and unfettered markets — brings together political figures, conservative campaigners, scientists, an Apollo astronaut and the president of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Klaus.

Organizers say the discussions, which began Sunday, are intended to counter the Obama administration and Democratic lawmakers, who have vowed to tackle global warming with legislation requiring cuts in the greenhouse gases that scientists have linked to rising temperatures.

But two years after the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded with near certainty that most of the recent warming was a result of human influences, global warming’s skeptics are showing signs of internal rifts and weakening support.

The meeting participants hold a wide range of views of climate science. Some concede that humans probably contribute to global warming but they argue that the shift in temperatures poses no urgent risk. Others attribute the warming, along with cooler temperatures in recent years, to solar changes or ocean cycles.

But large corporations like Exxon Mobil, which in the past financed the Heartland Institute and other groups that challenged the climate consensus, have reduced support. Many such companies no longer dispute that the greenhouse gases produced by burning fossil fuels pose risks.

From 1998 to 2006, Exxon Mobil, for example, contributed more than $600,000 to Heartland, according to annual reports of charitable contributions from the company and company foundations.

Alan T. Jeffers, a spokesman for Exxon Mobil, said by e-mail that the company had ended support “to several public policy research groups whose position on climate change could divert attention from the important discussion about how the world will secure the energy required for economic growth in an environmentally responsible manner.”

Joseph L. Bast, the president of the Heartland Institute, said that Exxon and other companies were just shifting their stance to improve their image. The Heartland meeting, he said, was the last bastion of intellectual honesty on the climate issue.

“Major corporations are painting themselves green around global warming,” Mr. Bast said, adding that the companies have shifted their lobbying and public relations efforts toward trying to shape climate legislation in their favor. He said that contributions, over all, had continued to rise.

But Kert Davies, a climate campaigner for Greenpeace, who is attending the Heartland event, said that the experts giving talks were “a shrinking collection of extremists” and that they were “left talking to themselves.”

Organizers expected to top the attendance of about 500 at the first Heartland conference, held last year. They also point to the speaker’s roster, which included Mr. Klaus and Harrison Schmitt, a geologist, Apollo astronaut and former senator.

A centerpiece of the 2008 meeting was the release of a report, “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Planet.” The document was expressly designed as a challenge to the reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

This year, the meeting will focus on a more nuanced question: “Global warming: Was it ever a crisis?”

Most of the talks at the meeting will challenge climate orthodoxy. But some presenters, including prominent figures who have been vocal in their criticism in the past, say they will also call on their colleagues to synchronize the arguments they are using against plans to curb greenhouse gases.

In a keynote talk Sunday night, Richard S. Lindzen, a professor at M.I.T. and a longtime skeptic of the mainstream consensus that global warming poses a danger, first delivered a biting attack on what he called the “climate alarm movement.”

There is no solid scientific evidence to back up the models used by climate scientists who warn of dire consequences if warming continues, he said. But Dr. Lindzen also criticized widely publicized assertions by other skeptics that variations in the sun were driving temperature changes in recent decades. To attribute short-term variation in temperatures to a single cause, whether human-generated gases or something else, was erroneous, he said.

Speaking of the sun’s slight variability, he said, “Acting as though this is the alternative” to blaming greenhouse gases “is asking for trouble.”

S. Fred Singer, a physicist often referred to by critics and supporters alike as the dean of climate contrarians, said that he would be running public and private sessions on Monday aimed at focusing participants on which skeptical arguments were supported by science and which were not.

“As a physicist, I am concerned that some skeptics (a very few) are ignoring the physical basis,” Dr. Singer said in an e-mail message.

“There is one who denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, which goes against actual data,” Dr. Singer said, adding that other skeptics wrongly contend that “humans are not responsible for the measured increase in atmospheric CO2.”

There are notable absences from the conference this year. Russell Seitz, a physicist from Cambridge, Mass., gave a talk at last year’s meeting. But Dr. Seitz, who has lambasted environmental campaigners as distorting climate science, now warns that the skeptics are in danger of doing the same thing.

The most strident advocates on either side of the global warming debate, he said, are “equally oblivious to the data they seek to discount or dramatize.”

John H. Christy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Alabama who has long publicly questioned projections of dangerous global warming, most recently at a House committee hearing last month, said he had skipped both Heartland conferences to avoid the potential for “guilt by association.”

Many participants said that any division or dissent was minor and that the global recession and a series of years with cooler temperatures would help them in combating changes in energy policy in Washington.

“The only place where this alleged climate catastrophe is happening is in the virtual world of computer models, not in the real world,” said Marc Morano, a speaker at the meeting and a spokesman on environmental issues for Senator James M. Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma.

But several climate scientists who are seeking to curb greenhouse gases strongly criticized the meeting. Stephen H. Schneider, a climatologist at Stanford University and an author of many reports by the intergovernmental climate panel, said, after reviewing the text of presentations for the Heartland meeting, that they were efforts to “bamboozle the innocent.”

Yvo de Boer, head of the United Nations office running the meetings leading to a new global climate treaty, to be signed in December in Copenhagen, said, “I don’t believe that what the skeptics say should provide any excuse to delay further” action against global warming.

But he added: “Skeptics are good. It’s important to give people the confidence that the issue is being called into question.”

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Tiny whale shark in the Philippines

Tiny whale shark rescued from hawker
ninemsn.com.au 9 Mar 09;

The smallest whale shark ever found has been rescued from a hawker in the Philippines, shedding new light on the breeding habits of the biggest fish in the sea.

Scientists are celebrating the discovery of the 38cm baby whale shark - the tiniest living example of a species that typically grows to 9-14 metres and weighs 12 to 15 tonnes.

It was found at the weekend with a rope tied around its tail, secured to a stick poked in the sand in a coastal town near Donsol in Sorsogon province.

Environment group WWF said a hawker was allegedly trying to sell the fish in an area that sees the world's largest known annual gathering of whale sharks.

After checking to see the baby whale shark was unhurt, WWF, police and government officials measured and photographed it before releasing it in deeper water.

The find is very significant for scientists, who know little about where the biggest fish in the ocean goes to give birth to its live young.

Until now it was thought the Philippines was simply a stop-off point for the rare species.

But WWF-Philippines chief executive Jose Ma Lorenzo Tan says the tiny size of the whale shark caught on Friday strongly suggests it was born there.

"In spite of all the research that is being done worldwide on whale shark, to this date no one knows where they breed or give birth," Tan says.

"For many years, scientists thought that Donsol was merely a 'gas station' along the global network of marine highways where whale sharks cruised.

"This new discovery is the first ever indication that this coastline may actually be a birthing site."

Tan said the find showed how critical it was to protect marine environments in the Philippines, and other countries that make up the Coral Triangle.

"This is no surprise. After all this has happened in the Coral Triangle - the nursery of the seas - where life begins, and many things remain possible," he said.

WWF promotes conservation programs across Coral Triangle countries, which also include Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and East Timor.

It is aiming to establish a network of marine protected areas that will help ensure whale sharks continue to migrate safely to the waters off Ningaloo Reef off Western Australia's northwest coast.

Papua New Guinea is hosting a high-level meeting this week on a plan to protect marine ecosystems and food security in the Coral Triangle. Details will be announced at the Coral Triangle Initiative Summit at the World Ocean Conference on May 15.

The biggest whale shark ever recorded was caught on November 11, 1997, near the island of Baba, not far from Karachi, Pakistan.

While only 12.65 metres in length, it weighed more than 21.5 tonnes and had a girth of seven metres.

But very few have been found between birth size and four metres. One found in a study by WWF/TRAFFIC measured two metres.

History's smallest whale shark rescued in Sorsogon
Jose Ma. Lorenzo Tan, WWF-Philippines vice-chairman and CEO
mb.com.ph 9 Mar 09;

Whale sharks are the largest fish on earth. Donsol, a sleepy town in the Philippine province of Sorsogon, hosts what is arguably the largest known annual congregation of whale sharks in the world.

On the morning of March 7, word reached Nitz Pedragosa, Donsol's tourism officer, that a whale shark had been caught on March 6th in nearby San Antonio, a barangay of Pilar town, adjacent to Donsol. It was allegedly tied up, and being sold.

When the report was confirmed through local informants, the team - made up of the Tourism Officer, the Agricultural Officer, the BIO and Elson - quickly drew up an operational plan. As they pulled up to the seashore an hour later, the team was met by Captain Berango, the Pilar police chief. They expected to see a giant animal helplessly stuck, its tall dorsal fin and tail sticking out of the water. But there was nothing there. All they saw was a stick, stuck in sand, with a small rope leading away from it, into the water. Elson walked up to the stick and was amazed to find the smallest whale shark he had ever seen - a mere 15 inches long!

The team freed the shark from the rope that was tied around its tail. After checking to see that the animal was unhurt, documenting the discovery, and measuring the shark, they transferred it into a large, water-filled plastic bag to allow it to swim freely while preparing for its release. Less than three hours after the report first reached Donsol, the response team was back on their banca, shark safely in hand. They took the shark out to deeper water, where it was less likely to get entangled in a fish net, and there, they set it free.

In spite of all the research that is being done worldwide on whale sharks, to this date no one knows where they breed or give birth. The Pilar 'pup' was so small, it was probably born here and could have been what biologists call a neo-nate. Not only is this animal the smallest live whale shark on record ever to be captured and released here in the Philippines (and arguably, anywhere in the world), it is also the first indication that the Philippines, at the apex of the Coral Triangle, is probably one of the places on the planet where these giants of the sea are born.

For many years, scientists thought that Donsol was merely one of many 'gas stations' along the global network of marine highways where whale sharks cruised. This new discovery is the first ever indication that this coastline may actually be a 'birthing site'.

15-inch butanding rescued in Sorsogon
Katherine Adraneda The Philippines Star 10 Mar 09;

MANILA, Philippines - A 15-inch whale shark, locally known as butanding, has been found in Sorsogon.

Conservation group World Wide Fund for Nature-Philippines (WWF-Philippines) reported yesterday that the rescue of what could be the smallest whale shark in the country, and perhaps in the world, might lead to answers to the mystery of where the sea creatures breed.

According to the WWF, the baby whale shark was caught last Friday in nearby San Antonio, a barangay of Pilar town, adjacent to Donsol in Sorsogon and was allegedly about to be sold.

A Butanding Interaction Officer (BOI) from Donsol town identified as Embet Guadamor alerted the municipal agricultural officer as well as WWF’s project leader in Donsol, Elson Aca, as soon as he received the information Saturday morning.

“A veteran of several years of fieldwork, including a multi-year stint with humpback whales in the Babuyan Islands, Elson (Aca) knew instinctively what to do. Now in stranding response mode, he grabbed his camera, cell phone and a copy of Fisheries Administrative Order 193, protecting whale sharks, and rushed to the Tourism Office,” related Jose Ma. Lorenzo Tan, vice-chairman and CEO of WWF-Philippines.

A team consisting of the tourism officer, agricultural officer, BIO, and Aca quickly drew up an operational plan to rescue the small whale shark, which WWF-Philippines christened the “Million Dollar Baby” for its significance and rarity.

They found the whale shark with a rope around its tail tied to a stick stuck into the sand.

The team freed the shark and checked to see that the animal was unhurt. They then documented the discovery and measured the shark, which was 15 inches from tip to tail. They put the whale shark in a large plastic bag with water to allow it to swim freely in preparation for release.

About three hours later, the team boarded a banca and took it out to deep water, where it was less likely to get entangled in a fish net, and set it free.

Tan said many researches have been done worldwide on whale sharks, but to date, no one knows where the whale sharks breed or give birth.

Tan noted that the whale shark rescued in Pilar town last Saturday was so small that “it was probably born (there) and could have been what biologists call a neo-nate.”

“Not only is this animal the smallest live whale shark on record ever to be captured and released here in the Philippines, it is also the first indication that the Philippines, at the apex of the Coral Triangle, is probably one of the places on the planet where these giants of the sea are born,” Tan pointed out.

“For many years, scientists thought that Donsol was merely one of many ‘gas stations’ along the global network of marine highways where whale sharks cruised. This new discovery is the first ever indication that this coastline may actually be a birthing site. This comes as no surprise. After all, this happened in the Coral Triangle – the nursery of the seas – where life begins, and many things remain possible,” he added.

Tiny whale shark gives clues to sea giant’s behaviour
WWF 6 Mar 09;

The shock discovery in the Philippines of a tiny whale shark – possibly the smallest of its kind ever recorded – has given scientists new insight into the breeding behavior of these mysterious fish.

Scientists from WWF-Philippines, working with local police and government officials, freed a 38 cm whale shark over the weekend captured by a fisherman in the Philippines province of Sorsogon, near the coastal town of Donsol, a hub where whale sharks congregate.

The rescued shark was the smallest whale shark ever recorded in the Philippines, and possibly the smallest ever found in the world.

The whale shark is the world’s largest living fish, measuring up to more than 12 meters and weighing up to almost 14 tons, making the weekend encounter by scientists with the miniscule captive whale shark a unique opportunity to learn more about the huge fish species.

Despite all the ongoing research on whale sharks, little is known about where they breed or give birth.

Because of its small size, the whale shark found in the Sorsogon Province was likely born near the area. This indicates that the Philippines – at the apex of the Coral Triangle – likely is one of the places where these giants of the sea are born, according to WWF-Philippines.

For many years, scientists thought that the Sorsogon coastline was merely one of many stops along the global network of marine highways traveled by whale sharks. The recent discovery of the small whale shark could change that long-held belief and instead establish the coastline as a birthing area for the sharks.

After being tipped off that a whale shark had been caught to be sold, researchers from WWF-Philippines alerted local authorities and together they located and freed the shark, which the fisherman had restrained with a rope tied around its tail.

The rescuers then checked to make sure the shark had not been injured, and documented and measured it, before transferring it into a large, water-filled plastic bag to allow it to swim freely prior to its release. They eventually took the shark out to deeper water, where it was less likely to get entangled in a fish net, and set it free.

Although listed under Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), a status which strictly regulates the trade of the species based on quotas and permits to prevent their unsustainable use, whale sharks continue to be harvested for a variety of products, including their liver oil and fins.

The waters around Donsol are part of the Sulu-Sulawesi Seas ecoregion, one of WWF's Global 200 ecoregions — a science-based global ranking of the world's most biologically outstanding habitats and the regions on which WWF concentrates its efforts. The also make up part of the Coral Triangle, a major area of marine biodiversity.

Leaders of the six nations that make up the Coral Triangle – Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Timor Leste –will meet on May 15 in Manado, Indonesia for the World Oceans Conference where they will announce a comprehensive set of actions to protect ecosystems and food security in the region.

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Beached marine mammals: Coral triangle countries to check phenomenon

BusinessWorld 9 Mar 09;

THE ENVIRONMENT department will discuss the recent phenomena of beached marine mammals during the Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI) meeting in Papua New Guinea this week, the department yesterday said in a press release.

Environment Secretary Jose L. Atienza, Jr., said he would discuss with member countries Timor Leste, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands the abnormal behavior of dolphins and whales.

"We want to understand, as well as pinpoint, the reason why these sea mammals have been acting unusual. We suspect that these are caused by underwater quakes or change in temperature brought about by global warming and climate change," the statement quoted Mr. Atienza as saying.

Schools of dolphins and melon-head whales wanted to get out of the water and beached themselves at the coasts of Bataan province last month and Romblon province the other day.

"We would present this as a major concern why the sea mammals are behaving that way. The moment we are able to determine the major causes [of the peculiar animal behavior], we’ll be able to act in unison," Mr. Atienza said in a separate interview.

The 2.3-million square mile Coral Triangle is home to more than a third of all the world’s coral reefs, hosts about 600 species of reef-building coral, or three-quarters of all known coral species, over 3,000 species of reef fish, and holds nearly the same size of the world’s mangrove species.

Last October, CTI member countries drafted the Regional Action Plan involving high-level leadership and policy reforms, sustainable management of marine resources, and regional and multi-stakeholder partnerships for the protection of the biodiversity-rich area.

The department initially deemed these as effects of dynamite fishing.

However, it also happened in Singapore, which has no recorded activities of dynamite fishing.

Mr. Atienza told Business-World that local communities in coastal areas will be guided on how to react on future cases through literatures and training. — NJCM

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Myanmar elephant camp empty as tourists stay away

Hla Hla Htay Yahoo News 8 Mar 09;

PHO KYAR, Myanmar (AFP) – Curious elephant calf Wine Suu Khaing Thein should be the star attraction of the Pho Kyar eco-reserve down a rocky road in an isolated mountain range in central Myanmar.

The one-year-old is the youngest of about 80 elephants roaming the reserve packed with decades-old teak trees and filled with bird song.

Yet despite the promise of elephant rides and jungle treks, the eco-tourists the camp wants to attract are simply not coming to the military-ruled nation, let alone making the bumpy ride to remote Pho Kyar.

Tourist arrivals to Myanmar have been dropping since a bloody 2007 crackdown on anti-junta protests, while last year's cyclone and pressure from pro-democracy groups overseas to boycott the country also deter holiday-makers.

"We have very few visitors now," said a manager of Asia Green Travels and Tours Company, which arranges tours of Pho Kyar park, who asked not to be named as he was not authorised to speak to the media.

"It is not because of difficult transportation to this place but because of tourist arrivals declining these past months."

On the day AFP visited, there were no foreign or local visitors at the 20-acre (eight-hectare) Pho Kyar in the Bago mountain range, despite it being the height of the tourist season, which runs from October to April.

Instead, the only attention Wine Suu Khaing Thein gets is a beating with a bamboo stick by one of the elephant handlers, known as mahouts.

"You shouldn't run here and there. Stay beside your mother," the man shouts, herding the calf back to her family as they wait for a check-up from the vet.

The reserve is about 200 miles (320 kilometres) away from the commercial and transport hub Yangon, closer to the military regime's new capital Naypyidaw, a sprawling, hidden-away city that tourists are not allowed to visit.

Myanmar has been ruled by various military juntas since 1962, and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been locked away and kept under house arrest for most of the last two decades.

She once urged foreigners to stay away from Myanmar -- formally known as Burma -- to deny the military rulers revenue from tourism, although as she is mostly kept silent by the junta it is unclear if her views have changed.

Whether to explore Myanmar's ancient temples, crumbling cities and remote jungles remains a heated debate among travellers, with the Rough Guide travel series not even publishing a book on the nation out of protest.

Moral arguments aside, the global economic downturn and recent events in Myanmar have hammered the industry just as it was finding its feet.

Images of Buddhist monks fleeing gunfire on Yangon's streets during protests in September 2007 and of bloated corpses littering paddy fields in the southern delta after Cyclone Nargis last May did not inspire tourists' confidence.

The government's hotel and tourism department has said that 177,018 foreigners arrived at Yangon International Airport in 2008, nearly 25 per cent down from the 231,587 foreigners who came in 2007.

"Tourist arrivals have declined because of Cyclone Nargis. Tourists think that we have a very bad situation and dare not visit for relaxation," said Khin, a manager of a Yangon tour company.

Exactly how many people make it to Pho Kyar elephant camp, which was set up 20 years ago, is unclear as the reserve does not keep records.

More than half the elephants at the camp are working animals still used by the Myanma Timber Enterprise in the logging industry, and spend the dry season heaving felled trees through the jungle.

Come the rainy season -- or if the elephant is too old to work -- the pachyderms return to the reserve to amuse any tourists who do show up.

"Pho Kyar elephant camp is the best one in the country," said a vet from the forestry ministry who did not want to be named. "We always take care of the elephants."

Myanmar has the largest elephant population in Southeast Asia, with an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 animals, said a recent report by wildlife group TRAFFIC that warned the animal is threatened by poaching.

Environmentalists in the country have also said that as Myanmar's junta expands logging in the teak forests, wild elephants are being captured and trained for clear-cutting operations that destroy their own habitats.

Managers at Pho Kyar camp hope that they can help educate visitors on preserving Myanmar's elephants, if only the holiday-makers would turn up.

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Growing Acid Problem Thins Shells of Ocean Creatures

Andrea Thompson, LiveScience.com 8 Mar 09

Scientists have started to see some of the expected effects of Earth's increasing carbon dioxide burden: The shells of microscopic animals in the ocean are becoming thinner thanks to the ocean's absorption of some of that excess carbon dioxide, a new study shows.

The shells of those creatures studies are about one-third lighter.

As carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels has accumulated in the atmosphere, some of it has been absorbed by the ocean. As the gas dissolves in the water, it forms a week acid (the same kind that's in bubbly soft drinks), causing the ocean itself to become gradually more acidic.

As ocean water becomes more acidic, it also lowers the amount of calcium carbonate available to aquatic animals that use the mineral to build shells or skeletons, such as corals. These organisms can be important links in the marine food chain.

Scientists have predicted that the increase in ocean acidification could significantly reduce the ability of these creatures to build their casings, potentially devastating them and causing rippling effects through the ecosystem. But "until now the potential impact on ocean chemistry and marine life has been based on projections and models" and laboratory experiments, said leader of the new study, Will Howard of the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre in Australia.

With funding from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Howard and his colleagues collected microscopic marine animals - called planktonic foraminifera, or forams - from the South Tasman Rise region of the Southern Ocean. They compared the weights of the shells of these modern forams to those trapped in ocean sediments before the industrial revolution and the build-up of carbon dioxide.

They found that the modern shell weights were 30 to 35 percent lower than those of the older forams.

The researchers also found a link between higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and lowr shell weights in a 50,000-year-long record from a marine sediment core (a long column drilled out from the ocean floor that shows layers of sediments as they were laid down over time).

"Today's results publish the first evidence from nature, rather than a laboratory, that the two are linked," Howard said.

The findings are detailed in the March 8 issue of the journal Nature Geoscience.

If the results are applicable to the rest of the ocean, they could lead to large ecosystem shifts.

"The potential knock-on effects pose significant implications for the oceanic food chain and the findings are a worrying signal of what we can expect to see elsewhere in the future," Howard said. "The Southern Ocean is giving us a strong indication of an acidification process that will spread throughout the global ocean."

Rising ocean acidity cutting shell weights - study
David Fogarty, Reuters 8 Mar 09;

SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Acidifying oceans caused by rising carbon dioxide levels are cutting the shell weights of tiny marine animals in a process that could accelerate global warming, a scientist said on Monday.

William Howard of the University of Tasmania in Australia described the findings as an early-warning signal, adding the research was the first direct field evidence of marine life being affected by rising acidity of the oceans.

Oceans absorb large amounts of CO2 emitted by mankind through the burning of fossil fuels. The Southern Ocean between Australia and Antarctica is the largest of the ocean carbon sinks.

But scientists say the world's oceans are becoming more acidic as they absorb more planet-warming CO2, disrupting the process of calcification used by sea creatures to build shells as well as coral reefs.

Laboratory experiments had earlier predicted these impacts.

Howard and co-author Andrew Moy, also of the University of Tasmania, studied the shells of tiny amoeba-like animals called foraminifera in the Southern Ocean and compared the shell weights to data from sediment core records dating back 50,000 years.

Their findings, which appear in the latest issue of Nature Geoscience, show shell weights of modern-day foraminifera falling between 30 and 35 percent.

"The big challenge will be how do we scale up this kind of change to understand what it means for the ecosystem. And to be honest, we don't know yet," he told Reuters.

The implications for climate change were clearer, he said.

CARBON TRANSFER

Foraminifera, which live on the ocean's surface, play a major role in trapping CO2 and transporting it to the ocean depths where it can be locked away for decades or more.

Disrupting this process could accelerate climate change.

Foraminifera, he said, comprise a significant proportion of all the carbonate shell material produced in the ocean.

"Their presence and production helps facilitate the sinking of organic matter from the surface layers of the ocean into the deep ocean," said Howard, project leader of the ocean acidification team at the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre.

"That translates into the transfer of carbon from the atmosphere into the deep ocean. If these organisms are not calcifying as much it may translate into a reduction in the carbon transfer from the atmosphere."

Oceans are alkaline and Howard said that a century ago, oceans had a pH of 8.2, with a pH of 0 being battery acid and 13 being household bleach.

Oceans were now just under 8.1, he said.

"We've already changed the pH of the ocean by about 0.1. At these levels this represents about a 30 percent increase in the acidity of the oceans," Howard said.

"Anything that makes a shell is going to have a hard time making that shell."

The big challenge was understanding the ocean's response to climate change and what happens to ecosystems. The Southern Ocean was one of the first areas scientists will see this kind of shift, Howard said, in part because it is a major carbon sink.

"There's no question acidification is going to affect every part of the ocean because every part of the ocean is taking up CO2 from man-made emissions," he said. (Editing by Paul Tait)

Proof on the Half Shell: A More Acid Ocean Corrodes Sea Life
Ocean acidification is taking a toll on tiny shell-building animals
David Biello, Scientific American 8 Mar 09;

The shells of tiny ocean animals known as foraminifera—specifically Globigerina bulloides—are shrinking as a result of the slowly acidifying waters of the Southern Ocean near Antarctica. The reason behind the rising acidity: Higher carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere, making these shells more proof that climate change is making life tougher for the seas' shell-builders.

Marine scientist Andrew Moy at the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Center (ACE) in Hobart, Tasmania, and his Australian colleagues report in Nature Geoscience this week that they made this finding after comparing G. bulloides shells in ocean cores collected along the South Tasman Rise in 1995 with samples from traps collected between 1997 and 2004. The cores provide records that stretch back 50,000 years.

"We knew there were changes in carbonate chemistry of the surface ocean associated with the large-scale glacial-interglacial cycles in CO2 [levels], and that these past changes were of similar magnitude to the anthropogenic changes we are seeing now," says study co-author William Howard, a marine geologist at ACE. "The Southern [Ocean] works well [to study this issue] as it is a region where anthropogenic CO2 uptake, and thus acidification, has progressed more than in other regions. Other variables, such as temperature, have changed, but not as much."

The researchers found that modern G. bulloides could not build shells as large as the ones their ancestors formed as recently as century ago. In fact, modern shells were 35 percent smaller than in the relatively recent past—an average of 17.4 micrograms compared with 26.8 micrograms before industrialization. (One microgram is one millionth of a gram; there are 28.3 grams in an ounce.)

"We don't yet know what impact this will have on the organisms' health or survival," Howard says, but one thing seems clear: the tiny animals won't be storing as much CO2 in their shells in the form of carbonate. "If the shell-making is reduced, the storage of carbon in the ocean might be, as well."

That's bad news for the climate, because the ocean is responsible for absorbing at least one quarter of the CO2 that humans load into the air through fossil fuel burning and other activities—and it is the action of foraminifera and other tiny shell-building animals, along with plants like algae that lock it away safely for millennia.

It will be harder to get such a clear sign in a shell from other ocean regions—as variables like temperature and the amount of minerals available can significantly change the chemistry of a given ocean region. As Howard noted, the Southern Ocean has absorbed lots of manmade CO2 while temperatures and nutrients have not changed as much, making it more ideal for studying ocean acidification than other areas. Scientists examining foraminifera in the Arabian Sea, however, have found similar results, and Howard speculates the situation may be similar in the North Atlantic region, because it also absorbs a significant chunk of manmade CO2.

Howard says that CO2 emissions must be cut or captured and stored permanently in some fashion to halt this gradual acidification of the world's oceans. In the meantime, he adds, it's likely that many of the other shell-building oceanic animals are suffering similar fates as G. bulloides.

World's oceans face an acid test
Roger Harrabin, BBC News 10 Mar 09;

Carbon dioxide emissions from modern society are turning the ocean more acidic and some sea creatures are already suffering, according to research to be discussed at a major global science conference.

Studies in the Southern Ocean by Australian scientists found that the shells of tiny amoeba-like creatures called foraminifera have become thinner since the Industrial Revolution.

The scientists say this shows that increasing CO2 uptake in the ocean has a direct effect on the ability of micro-organisms to make shells.

The paper, being presented at the University of Copenhagen's International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, will add to a rising tide of scientific concern over ocean acidification.

Already, ocean acidity has increased about 32% since pre-industrial times. By 2100, it is projected to have increased by perhaps 130%, which scientists fear could have a potentially catastrophic impact on marine life.

In a study published in Nature Geoscience, William Howard, Andrew Moy and colleagues collected the shells of the organisms as they fell towards the sea floor.

They compared the mass of the shells, about the size of a grain of sand, to the mass of older shells on the sea floor.

The modern shells were 30 to 35% lighter than those that formed prior to the industrial period.

The researchers from the University of Tasmania attribute the change to the acidification of the Southern Ocean, which they say is driven by the uptake of CO2 from factories, cars and power stations.

Mussel test

Other scientists are wary of attributing all the blame for the acidification of the Southern Ocean on humans - there is major upwelling of more acidic water from the deep seas.

Waters from the deep ocean are colder than the surface waters and contain more carbon, which mixes with the seawater to form carbonic acid.

But this will not diminish concern over the problem of ocean acidification in general.

Some of the cutting-edge work in this new field of science is being done at Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) in south-west England.

A blustery wind is cutting in from the English Channel when we go to meet the laboratory's Steve Widdicombe, who is gathering mussels from the estuary of the River Exe.

He will use the molluscs to test how they will respond to increasing acidity as CO2 emissions rise.

The Exe is nearly a mile wide at this point and Steve has to work quickly because the tide is about to turn.

The specimens are taken back to the lab where their blood is sampled with a needle thrust through a gap in their shell.

An enzyme test indicates the strength of their immune system.

Then they are placed in tanks where acidity has been increased by bubbling CO2 through the water.

This is a long-term test, and Dr Widdicombe suspects it will show that mussels will be seriously compromised by the levels of acidification expected by 2100.

A previous experiment at PML, published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, showed that starfish would be killed by a pH of 7.7, which may occur by 2100 if CO2 emissions continue to rise.

Ocean pH levels have previously remained roughly constant at 8.2 for at least half a million years.

"We found that relatively small changes in pH (acid/alkali balance) for a long period cause creatures to use up energy trying to respond to the change," Dr Widdicombe says.

"The more we look at long-term chronic effects of acidification, the more worrying it becomes," he adds.

"It's a continuous stress. We can all respond to temporary stress but if we are under continuous stress we get sick."

The big question with acidification is whether calcifying organisms that need more alkaline conditions to create their shells will be able to adapt to more acidic waters.

"We need to look at evolutionary timescales," Dr Widdicombe explains.

"No-one has done the studies on what if anything would drive the ability to adapt.

"I personally think evolutionary timetables are simply too short to respond to the sort of changes we are making. I really fear the worst."

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

• Up to one half of the CO2 released by burning fossil fuels over the past 200 years has been absorbed by world's oceans
  
• This has lowered its pH by 0.1
  
• pH is the measure of acidity and alkalinity
  
• The vast majority of liquids lie between pH 0 (very acidic) and pH 14 (very alkaline); 7 is neutral
  
• Seawater is mildly alkaline with a "natural" pH of about 8.2
  
• The IPCC forecasts that ocean pH will fall by "between 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st Century, adding to the present decrease of 0.1 units since pre-industrial times"

With an explanation of acid oceans.

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