Green Drinks: The Need for Conservation of Singapore’s Wildlife
from Green Drinks Singapore
Job: Senior Project Officer / Project Officer for BTNR-CCNR Ecolink from ecotax
Sea Anemone Workshop Singapore, 15 – 21 June, 2011
from Raffles Museum News
The shape of your bug
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A Beautiful Piece of Shit
from Macro Photography in Singapore
一月华语导游 Mandarin guide walk@SBWR,December(XV)
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Radio New Zealand 18 Jan 11;
Solomon Islands is to resume exporting dolphins.
The Director of the Solomon Islands Marine Mammal Excursion Center, Robert Satu, says he has received orders from Europe and the Middle East.
He says hunters will soon head out to sea again to look for dolphins to be trained and then exported to Europe after receiving orders from Germany, France and Dubai.
The Solomons Star reports Mr Satu as saying a shipment is expected in June.
He says Germany has already ordered 28 dolphins while Dubai and other European countries have ordered another 28.
Mr Satu had previously released 14 dolphins on Independence Day last year, saying it was an agreement with the Earth Island Institute.
Earth Island Institute against dolphin exportation
Solomon Star 20 Jan 11;
EARTH Island Institute (EII) says the proposed export by Solomon Islands Marine Mammals and Education Centre (SIMMEC) is making things difficult for Solomon Islands to make million dollar tuna investments here.
Mark Berman, director of EII’s dolphin safe tuna monitoring program said this followed news about the proposed export of dolphins to Europe.
SIMMEC director Robert Satu said he had received requests from a number of countries including Germany, France and Dubai.
Mr Satu and his boys plan to resume hunting mid next month and early March.
But speaking to the Solomon Star, Mr Berman said Mr Satu was going to make things impossible for Solomon Islands to have tuna factories built.
“If he goes ahead with this, then the Solomon Islands government can forget about Frabelle and Dong Won investing,” he said.
EEI is a United States based organisation which runs private environmental monitoring programs.
It also provides dolphin safe certification for canned tuna producers.
They regularly inspect tuna in canneries, at dockside, and aboard fishing vessels in order to insure tuna consumers buy is truly “dolphin safe“ .
In the country Earth Island has an agreement with Soltai Fishing and Processing Limited (SFPL) and the Western Province.
In this agreements Soltai pledge to abide by the Earth Island international dolphin safe tuna standards by not catching dolphin and use of drift gill nets
Over the past years Earth Islands had warned Malaita and Guadalcanal Province to cease hunting and capturing of these mammals because they will only advise tuna investors to invest if all trades stops.
Mr Berman further added EII was going to lobby with European Union (EU) to stop export to Germany and France.
“We are going to lobby EU to make it impossible for any import into Germany or France,” he said.
With Gavutu now closed, the United States based director questioned where Satu was going to put all dolphins.
“And how will he keep them alive,” he said.
Mr Satu had previously released 14 dolphins on Independence Day last year.
He claimed the release was based on instructions and agreement with EII.
“They promised us a huge sum of money if we release the dolphins, but still that promise is yet to be fulfilled,” he said.
He described the deal as a total waste and loss for both the center and the nation as a whole.
By MOFFAT MAMU
Phuket Dive Industry Needs Controls, says Enviro Minister: Surin, Similans May Be Closed
Chutima Sidasathian PhuketWan 17 Jan 11;
NATURAL Resources and Environment Minister Suwit Khunkitti has called for greater control of the diving industry and warned that destruction from coral bleaching may force the closure of large areas of the Andaman region's most precious and popular marine parks and dive sites.
The Director of Research, National Parks, Thailand, Dr Songtam Suksawang, said frequent dives on Andaman reefs had illustrated that 93.6 percent of coral at Surin, the Similans, Phi Phi, Racha and Phuket is dead.
Damage was much worse than the destruction caused by the 2004 tsunami, he said. The coral could take between five and 10 years to recover, he said, and yet there were no signs of young coral.
Khun Suwit questioned the future of a Phuket that became overdeveloped and said there was a need to make "the beauty of Phuket, Phang Nga and Krabi stable forever."
Khun Suwit and Dr Songtam were speaking today to media at the launch of the Andaman Marine Protected Areas Network at Had Sai Keaw, a far-north beach on Phuket's west coast. They watched park rangers practice sea rescues.
Khun Suwit said there was a need for talks to begin on the future of the three provinces. "Everyone has to talk together," he said. "The governors, hotels, restaurants, everyone has to begin talking."
He acknowledged that the original tourists who visited Phuket for its natural beauty has moved on and yet for the future of its tourism, Phuket needed long-term visitors who kept returning.
"Whoever takes the money under the table, please stop," he said. "Don't destroy the fish and the forests."
Breaches of laws governing the environment would be punished, he said, no matter how senior or powerful the people involved.
Garbage and bad water at Surin Island and the Similans was creating a pollution problem, he said, caused by the popularity among divers and snorkellers. Marine life was also suffering, he said.
The dugong population, once believed to be recovering, was now declining as their rare sea grass feeding zones were polluted by coastal construction.
Turtle numbers had risen last year but were now showing signs of declining once again. Coral fish were also being sighted in fewer numbers.
"The quality of the boats and the quality of the people who bring the tourists is doubtful in some cases," he said. "The income is not the primary need. If the industry is not controlled, there will be too many boats, and too many people.
"We have to save the reefs and the marine environment."
He added that Phuket also needed to look more closely at the effects of development. "If Phuket is covered in buildings, why would people want to come to a holiday place that is just like the place they left behind?"
Phuketwan has called for Phuket's beaches to be removed from the control of corrupt local councils and placed under the protection of a new authority, and for a single government administration to oversee the future of Phuket, Phang Nga and Krabi so that Phang Nga and Krabi remain natural havens as Phuket becomes a big city.
The death figures site by site on coral bleaching are: Surin Island, 99.9 percent; Thachai Island 84 percent; Surin South 85 percent; Similan Island 89.3 percent. Research divers will check the sites again on Thursday.
Diving paradises may be closed
The Nation 17 Jan 11;
The Department of Marine and Coastal Resources is seeking the closure of two diving paradises, the Similan and Surin national parks after the coral there was found suffering from bleaching.
The scope of the corals destroyed from the bleaching has been wide and unless proper measures are issued, more coral would be destroyed by the phenomenon, said department director general Kasemssan Jinnawaso on Monday.
"The damage found on the coral for now is vast, probably the worst in history and certainly more than when The tsunami hit this area in 2004. The species affected are the Staghorn, Ring, Double Star and Mountain coral," Kasemsan said.
His department has already submitted a request to the National Parks, Wildlife and Plants Conservation Department to close parts of Similan and Surin National Parks to prevent any further damage to the coral.
A cause of the coral bleaching is the rising temperature of the sea water, which has reached 30 Celsius since the middle of last year, he said, adding that waste and pollution from diving boats are also contributing to the phenomenon.
"Many divers are also contributing to the damage as they step on the coral," he said.
Surveys of the sites between September and December 2010 showed that 93.6 per cent of the coral at Surin Nua Island had died from the bleaching while almost 100 per cent of the reef near Mae Yai Bay had died.
Referring to Phi Phi, Phi Phi Don and Phi Phi Leh islands, Kasemsan said the coral there was also damaged by bleaching in vast areas, probably about 90 per cent of the reef.
Tourist numbers at reefs hit by bleaching may be limited
The Nation 18 Jan 11;
Natural Resources and Environment Minister Suwit Khunkitti yesterday vowed to crack down on diving operations and even close some marine attractions in a bid to protect coral reefs from bleaching.
"We are considering limiting the number of tourists and requiring boats to moor quite far from the affected coral reefs," he said.
Officials would also try to find out how to restore them, he said.
Concerns have been growing that swathes of coral reefs have been damaged by bleaching.
Some worst hit areas may have to be closed to tourists so that they could recover naturally. Bleaching, a natural phenomenon, has struck coral reefs around many islands including Similan and Surin.
"I have already instructed authorities to conduct studies and introduce tangible steps to rehabilitate the coral reefs," he said. The new measures would also likely be introduced in areas with seaweed.
Divers have said that overcrowding at diving sites is hurting the coral reefs. Some spots get up to 300 visitors a day.
Director-general of the Marine and Coastal Resources Depart-ment Kasemsan Jinnawaso said the coral bleaching in the Anda-man Sea and Gulf of Thailand was very serious. The fatality rate for bleached coral was very high.
Director-general of the Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation Sunan Arunnopparat said he would inspect the Similan, Surin and Phi Phi islands on Thursday.
"If the damage is huge, I'm going to make these national marine parks off-limits to tourists," he said. Suwit will also summon the chief wardens of all 26 national marine parks in the country to a meeting on Thursday, he added.
Dept presses ahead with dive site closure
Bangkok Post 19 Jan 11;
The Marine and Coastal Resources Department is pressing ahead with a plan to close 10 popular diving sites in five provinces to limit the impact of tourism on severely damaged coral.
Department chief Kasemsun Chinnavaso said yesterday he had forwarded the proposal to the National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation, which supervises the affected marine national parks.
The diving sites facing temporary closure to allow coral to recover from bleaching are located in Hat Nopparattara-Mu Koh Phi Phi National Park in Krabi; Mu Koh Surin Marine National Park (Phangnga); Mu Koh Rang National Park (Trat); Koh Tao (Surat Thani); and Koh Pai and Koh Kang Kao (Chon Buri).
The department proposed earlier this week that the sites, which attract about one million tourists a year, be declared off-limits. The proposal has been met with strong resistance from diving operators and the tourism industry.
Mr Kasemsun, however, is standing firm on the plan, which received the backing of Natural Resources and Environment Minister Suwit Khunkiti.
The department has alerted all related agencies, including local administrative bodies, about the coral bleaching and recommended rehabilitation measures, Mr Kasemsun said.
"If related agencies refuse to comply with our recommendations, then they should take responsibility for the severe damage to the marine environment and future economic losses," he said.
Niphon Phongsuwan, the department's senior marine biologist, said the coral bleaching, which began early last year, was the worst in 20 years.
Scientists believe the main cause of the bleaching is the warming of the oceans, which forces zooxanthallae, an algae which coexists with the coral and gives it colour, to extract itself from the coral.
Many coral reefs in the Andaman Sea have turned a pale yellow or white colour and gradually died.
Less than 1% of coral affected by coral bleaching at Koh Phi Phi, Mu Koh Surin and Mu Koh Similan had recovered.
The staghorn is the worst-hit coral species because it is sensitive to warm water. However, staghorn coral need a shorter time to recover than pachyseris, which requires at least 20 years.
Pachyseris live about 30 metres below the sea surface.
Thailand has 96,000 rai of coral reef, half of which is in the Andaman Sea with more than 90% of the coral reef suffering bleaching.
Fidelis E. Satriastanti Jakarta Globe 18 Jan 11;
The forestry minister on Monday warned some logging companies that they needed to stop harvesting trees from natural woodlands immediately.
Minister Zulkifli Hasan’s warning was aimed not only at logging firms granted concessions this year, but also at timber companies still harvesting trees from natural forest concessions they had been granted in 2010.
“We are reorganizing the management of the pulp and paper industry,” Zulkifli said.
“Previously, they had been allowed to cut down trees from natural forests, but after 2010, not anymore.”
The reorganization comes as part of a two-year moratorium, due to start this month on granting new concessions in peatlands and primary forests.
The moratorium is part of a bilateral agreement with Norway, in exchange for which Indonesia will receive $1 billion in funding for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD-Plus) schemes.
“We are hoping that in 2011, they [2010 permits holders] are already done with their cutting and are starting planting activities.”
However, he said firms which obtained their logging permits before 2010 were allowed to continue harvesting in primary forests.
Firms found to be in violation of the order would be punished, Zulkifli said.
“For sanctions, the ministry has already issued a regulation stating that if the company fails to comply within two years, then, we will revoke their permits.”
However, Elfian Effendi, director executive of policy development institute Greenomics Indonesia, said the Ministry of Forestry should have first ascertained whether the country’s industrial, or planted, forests were adequate to supply growing demand.
“Before he came out with that statement he should have checked and explained whether we could supply [timber] solely from industrial forests and not coming from natural forests,” Elfian said.
“I am not sure we can completely let go of natural forests, we are very dependent on natural forests. At least 50 percent, sometimes 60 percent of [lumber comes from them].”
Furthermore, Elfian said Greenomics had been urging the ministry to set up its own team to assess the country’s ability to fulfill pulp and paper demand before putting out such statements.
“In 2002 to 2008, the government regulations decreed that industrial forests can only be established in barren areas, bush areas or non-productive areas,” he said.
“However, the reality is that [timber] was coming from natural forests.
The Supreme Audit Agency [BPK] has considered this an illegal activity but the ministry has never followed up on the cases,” he said, citing a BPK audit that was conducted on 19 companies in Riau.
Earlier in January, the Forestry Ministry announced that 500,000 hectares of land concessions would be granted this year in previously logged areas as part of a wider plan to keep virgin forests intact and slow the rate of carbon dioxide emissions.
According to Zulkifli, the timber industry in Indonesia is worth around $16 billion annually and employs at least 240,000 workers.
Last year, the industry contributed $4 billion in state revenue, or 6.1 percent of the total.
Earlier in January, the Forestry Ministry announced that 500,000 hectares of land concessions would be granted this year in previously logged areas as part of a wider plan to keep virgin forests intact and slow the rate of carbon dioxide emissions.
Alister Doyle PlanetArk 18 Jan 11;
Climate change could make a sea in southern Scandinavia too warm for Atlantic cod and rising water temperatures may be stunting the growth of young fish, a study showed on Monday.
The report, drawing on records since 1919 of more than 100,000 juvenile cod caught and measured in the Skagerrak area off south Norway, gives some of the most detailed evidence yet of how global warming may affect commercial fish stocks.
Juvenile cod grew less in summers when waters were warmer than usual in Skagerrak, which is between Sweden, Denmark and Norway, it said. The summer slowdown more than offset a small boost to growth when spring temperatures were above normal.
"The coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod," if a projected rise in summer temperatures continues to have most influence on growth, according to scientists in the United States and Norway.
"We found that spring and summer temperatures have opposite effects on the growth of cod," said Leif Stige, of the University of Oslo and among authors of the study in the U.S. journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
"This shows some of the complexity in predicting the effects of a warmer climate," he told Reuters of the study, which is rare in being able to draw on a long historical record. Other fish species may also react to warming in similar ways, it said.
The study estimated that a sea surface temperature of 19 degrees Celsius (66.20F) in summer, against an average 15.9 C over the past century, lopped 0.1 cm (0.04 inch) off a typical cod that reaches almost 10 cms long by autumn, it said.
Cod may already be suffering since temperatures have often been above average in recent years. "It is likely that coastal Skagerrak cod are experiencing decreased growth rates because of high metabolic costs in warm summers," it said.
Warmer temperatures may mean less food for cod in summer. In the nearby North Sea "warming temperatures have decreased the quantity and quality of plankton prey for cod," it said.
Climate models predict a rise of 2-3 degrees Celsius in summer surface temperatures in Skagerrak over the next century.
Apart from climate change, many commercial fish stocks also face problems including over-exploitation and pollution.
Total landings of cod from Skagerrak and the linked Norwegian sector of the North Sea fell to about 24,000 tons in 2008 from 67,000 tons in 2000, according to Norwegian statistics. Most was by European Union vessels.
The U.N. panel of climate experts has said global warming is tending to push many stocks of fish toward polar areas.
(Editing by Janet Lawrence)
Yahoo News 17 Jan 11;
BRUSSELS (AFP) – The European Commission on Monday announced it was taking formal action against Sweden for culling wolves in breach of European Union legislation.
"I regret that Sweden has begun the licensed hunting of wolves," the Commissioner for the environment Janez Potocnik said in a statement.
"The actions of the Swedish authorities leave me with little choice other than to propose to the Commission that it begin formal proceedings against Sweden for breach of EU environmental law."
The Commission will consider the matter on January 27, his spokesman said.
Sweden last month announced hunters would be allowed to cull 20 wolves in 2011 despite harsh criticism of last year's cull.
Asked for comment, the Swedish government told AFP in Stockholm that it was convinced the cull was "in line with EU rules."
"But we will hear what the Commission has to say," it added.
The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency said that between January 15 and February 15 licensed hunters would be permitted to shoot 20 wolves, down from the quota of 27 animals last year.
Thousands of hunters have already killed 16 of the 20 wolves.
The hunt follows a 2009 decision by parliament to limit the wolf population to 210 animals, spread out in 20 packs, with 20 new pups per year, for a period of five years by issuing hunting permits in regions where wolves have recently reproduced.
The 2010 hunt was the first since 1964.
After almost disappearing, wolves have reproduced in the last three decades with sheep and reindeer increasingly under attack.
The head of Sweden's Association for the Protection of Nature welcomed the possibility of EU action.
"The noose is tightening around Sweden," said Mikael Karlsson, who heads the group.
Francis Kan and Randy Fabi PlanetArk 18 Jan 11;
Global efforts to drastically reduce toxic sulfur emissions in the shipping industry will likely be delayed for years due to the reluctance of refiners to invest billions of dollars to produce cleaner burning fuel.
The U.N. shipping agency, International Maritime Organization (IMO), has set a 2020 deadline for the maritime community to slash the amount of sulfur burned by the global fleet, blamed for thousands of deaths every year.
The IMO estimates the industry needs to invest nearly $150 billion in secondary refining capacity to ensure enough supplies are available.
IMO's cap can only be realistically met through the use of cleaner burning fuels, known as middle distillates, already in short supply due to high demand from automobiles, airplanes and power stations. As a result of the changes, demand for such fuels could rise by up to 50 percent, or an additional 600 million tones, from current levels by 2030, according to estimates by oil major ExxonMobil.
"This represents a major increase in distillate demand, a product that has experienced high growth even without the marine fuel growth," said Vincent Chong, global head of ExxonMobil's marine fuel division.
Gas oil, a key middle distillate product, accounted for 42 per cent of global oil products growth in the third quarter of 2010, expanding twice as quickly as the same period in 2009, according to the International Energy Agency's December oil market report.
Cheaper high-sulfur residual fuel oil (HSFO) -- the sludgy, bottom of the barrel residue left behind from refining more profitable fuels -- is most commonly used by ships now.
If the cap is imposed, refiners will have to scramble for waytonessing up millions of tones of the fuel. Global residual fuel production in 2010 is estimated at around 570 million tones with residual bunker consumption at around 190-200 million tones, according to a study by energy consultants Poten & Partners.
The shipping industry, which transports about 90 percent of the world's traded goods by volume, does not believe enough low sulfur marine fuel will be produced in time for its more than 50,000 merchant vessels.
"We will monitor the 2020 deadline very carefully because we believe the bunker fuel supplies to meet the limits may not be available," said Torben Skaanild, chief executive of BIMCO, the world's largest ship owners' association.
Although seaborne trade contributes less than 10 percent of global sulfur emissions, the burning of bunker fuel by ships is blamed for 60,000 cancer-related deaths worldwide each year, according to a published 2007 study.
To help prevent this, the IMO has passed regulations to cut sulfur emissions by more than 80 percent by reducing the air pollutant's presence in marine fuel to 0.5 percent by 2020 from the current global average of 2.7 percent.
SHORT SUPPLY
Some refiners have earmarked funds to make the necessary upgrades to meet the expected rise in demand. South Korea's No.2 oil refiner GS Caltex will invest almost $1 billion to raise its capacity to convert heavy oil into cleaner fuel by a quarter from 2013, as it races to bethe country's top producer of high-value distillates.
Around 20 percent of a refiner's output comprises residual fuel oil, according to ballpark estimates from industry officials. Analysts, however, do not expect enough refiners would agree to the needed investment within the relatively tight timeframe.
"Show refiners the money and they'll likely show you the barrels," said Poten & Partners.
"But these barrels of marine distillate might not be readily available everywhere and they might come with a sticker price that might shock some people."
But even if a refiner decides to upgrade its facility, it can take a decade or more to fully execute the changes, making the 2020 deadline unrealistic, analysts said.
Another alternative was for refiners to "desulfurize" HSFO into a lower-sulfur version, an option that provides little economic benefit for the industry.
"Considering the gap between low sulfur fuel oil and HSFO prices, it does not seem to be attractive for any new refiners to invest in new processes or change their oil basket to raise LSFO output," said Eduardo Bertonha de Campos, a market analyst with Petrobras.
A SILVER BULLET-
Despite the complexity of the marine fuel conundrum, a potential cure-all exists in the form of exhaust abatement technology, also known as scrubbers.
In theory, this onboard system removes sulfur emissions from marine fuel, effectively allowing heavy sulfur fuel to be used while satisfying the upcoming curbs.
"The 2020 date is sufficiently far away enough in the future," said Eivind Vagslid, head of the IMO's chemical and air pollution prevention section. "We hope there will be a combination of new refinery capacity and the use of scrubbers."
But the industry was divided over whether the technology would be ready for mass adoption since it was still being tested and manufactured by only a handful of companies worldwide.
"Scrubbers won't be the silver bullet. A sizeable portion of the fleet will still need to rely on low sulfur fuel being available," said Kurt Barrow, vice president of Purvin and Gertz.
Others options are the use of alternative fuels like liquefied natural gas (LNG) and biofuels, but critics again doubted their suitability for widespread use.
LNG would make up only 5 percent of bunker use by 2025 due to the cost of retrofitting vessels to use the new fuel, said Robin Meech, managing director of UK-based Marine and Energy Consulting.
Given the issues at hand, many affected parties were pushing for the IMO deadline to be extended. An IMO committee was expected to review the supply issue by 2018, and could push the deadline back to 2025.
"I don't think there is a single solution that can surmount the challenges that lie ahead," said Exxon's Chong.
(Editing by Manash Goswami)
Plastic bag use is increasing in the UK, while Ireland's tax on bags has had dramatic success
Bibi van der Zee guardian.co.uk 17 Jan 11;
Plastic bag use in Britain is on the rise after the limited success of a voluntary agreement by retailers to cut the number of bags given to shoppers, according to figures compiled this week.
By contrast, in Ireland, which imposed a tax on plastic bags in 2002, the number of plastic bags has plummeted. Consumers in the UK now use nearly four times as many plastic bags as those in Ireland.
According to the figures by the New Statesman from official government sources, the number of bags used a month by each person in the UK dropped from 11 in 2002 to 7.2 in 2009, but then rose again to 7.7 last year – equivalent to 475m bags in total per month. In Ireland, the equivalent figure – compiled from plastic bag tax receipts – has dropped from 27 in 2002 to 2 in 2009, suggesting that the tax is having a strong impact on consumer behaviour.
"Ireland's shoppers are enjoying freedom from the endless unnecessary plastic bags, as these figures show," said Julian Kirby, resource use campaigner for Friends of the Earth. "A standard charge in England would help save resources and cut climate-changing gases."
Four years ago, single-use plastic bags became an environmental issue in the UK, after the residents of Modbury, Devon, banned them from the village. Photographs of wild animals caught up in plastic bags drew attention to the damage the bags were causing, and the Daily Mail joined the campaign, with a call in 2008 to "Banish the bags", so that "our streets, fields, parks, seas, rivers and beaches will be cleaner for our grandchildren to enjoy".
But, despite support from many sides, Gordon Brown backed away from imposing either a ban or a levy on the bags, and instead allowed retailers to create a voluntary agreement. The New Statesman's waste policy report suggests the agreement – although initially leading to a drop in bag use – has had only a limited success.
Ireland introduced a tax of 15 cents a bag in 2002, increasing it to 22 cents in 2007. The tax, which retailers are required by law to pass on to the shopper, is ring-fenced for green projects. Wales plans to follow suit this year.
Washington DC imposed a tax in January 2009, and Vietnam plans to introduce one this year. In Seattle, however, voters rejected a plastic bag tax, and in France the government performed a U-turn on similar plans.
"We certainly support a ban on plastic bags," said Sam Jarvis of campaign group Wastewatch, "as we would support a ban on any single-use disposable items such as disposable razors, as a general principle. Plastic bags are a totemic issue, and a ban might well encourage people to think about waste more broadly. The Irish example shows this really can work."
"If Gordon Brown hadn't bottled it with the supermarket lobby," says Rebecca Hoskins, who led the Modbury campaign, "plastic bags would now be a distant memory and we would all be wondering what the fuss was about."
Karin Zeitvogel Yahoo News 17 Jan 11;
WASHINGTON (AFP) – Like many environmentalists, Lester Brown is worried. In his new book "World on the Edge," released this week, Brown says mankind has pushed civilization to the brink of collapse by bleeding aquifers dry and overplowing land to feed an ever-growing population, while overloading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide.
If we continue to sap Earth's natural resources, "civilizational collapse is no longer a matter of whether but when," Brown, the founder of Worldwatch and the Earth Policy Institute, which both seek to create a sustainable society, told AFP.
What distinguishes "World on the Edge" from his dozens of other books is "the sense of urgency," Brown told AFP. "Things could start unraveling at any time now and it's likely to start on the food front.
"We've got to get our act together quickly. We don't have generations or even decades -- we're one poor harvest away from chaos," he said.
"We have been talking for decades about saving the planet, but the question now is, can we save civilization?"
In "World on the Edge", Brown points to warning signs and lays out arguments for why he believes the cause of the chaos will be the unsustainable way that mankind is going about producing more and more food.
Resources are already beginning to be depleted, and that could cause a global "food bubble" created by overusing land and water to meet the exponential growth in demand for food -- grain, in particular -- to burst.
Two huge dustbowls have formed in the world, one in Africa and the other in China and Mongolia, because of soil erosion caused by overplowing.
In Lesotho, the grain harvest has dropped by more than half over the last decade or two because of soil erosion, Brown said.
In Saudi Arabia, grain supplies are shrinking as a fossil aquifer drilled in in the 1970s to sustain domestic grain production is running dry after years of "overpumping" to meet the needs of a population that wants to consume more meat and poultry.
Global warming is also impacting the global supply of grain, which Brown calls the foundation of the world food economy.
Every one-degree-Celsius rise above the normal temperature results in a 10 percent fall in grain yields, something that was painfully visible in Russia last year, where a seven-week heatwave killed tens of thousands and caused the grain harvest to shrink by 40 percent.
Food prices soared in Russia as a result of the poor harvest, and Russia -- which is one of the top wheat exporters in the world -- cut off grain exports.
Different grains are staple foods in most of the world, and foods like meat and dairy products are "grain-intensive."
It takes seven pounds (3.2 kilograms) of grain fed to a cow to produce a pound of beef, and around four pounds (1.8 kilograms) of grain to produce a pound of cheese, Brown told AFP.
In "World on the Edge", Brown paints a grim picture of how a failed harvest could spark a grain shortage that would send food prices sky-rocketing, cause hunger to spread, governments to collapse and states to fail.
Food riots would erupt in low-income countries and "with confidence in the world grain market shattered, the global economy could start to unravel," Brown warned.
But Brown still believes civilizational collapse can be averted, if there is a mass effort to confront threats such as global warming, soil erosion and falling water tables, not military superpowers.
"World on the Edge" can be downloaded free-of-charge at www.earth-policy.org/books/wote.
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