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Monday Morgue
The global demand for palm oil is driven by its use by large companies in a wide range of products. If you used lipstick or toothpaste this morning, you may have used palm oil.
Ang Peng Hwa, Straits Times AsiaOne 27 Sep 15;
The ongoing and unhealthy level of the smoke haze from Indonesia poses questions we have to answer: Are the strategies we have been using to fight the haze failing? And if they are not, what else can we do?
When a friend asked me those questions recently, I replied: "It looks like our strategies are not working, but actually, without them, the haze we are experiencing will be even worse. We should keep the strategies we have but realise that as those responsible are morphing and adapting, so we need to morph and adapt our strategies."
I agree with my colleague Euston Quah ("When the haze doesn't go away"; The Straits Times, Tuesday) that fighting the haze will cost us money and time. However, in one crucial area, I disagree with him.
Unlike Professor Quah, I believe consumers need to boycott the paper and palm oil that are being produced by recalcitrant offenders and we need to sue the Singapore companies involved.
We should note that although it is not called a boycott, consumers are already avoiding palm oil, if they can help it. Try looking for palm oil on our supermarket shelves. None can be found. In contrast to olive oil producers, who are proud to tout their family name, palm oil producers are embarrassed by their product. So they label their product as "vegetable oil" or "mixed vegetable oil".
If consumers are avoiding palm oil, why is there still global demand?
Well, global demand is driven by the widespread use of palm oil by large companies in a wide range of products. If you used lipstick or toothpaste this morning, you may have used palm oil.
The product is so widely used in so many products that the largest global buyer, Nestle, is responsible for just 4 per cent of global demand. This small percentage means demand for palm oil is spread among many companies. This makes it difficult to quickly dampen demand by targeting a few large companies. Any strategy to target companies that use palm oil has to be multi-pronged.
There are a few other reasons we have to act as consumers.
First, the interventions by both the public and private sectors have failed. The public sector has failed, and not for want of trying. The initial strategies in fact were to look to governments, regional co-operation and international agencies to defeat the haze. But they have not got very far. The ASEAN Transboundary Haze Pollution Agreement signed by all ASEAN members in 2002 was ratified by Indonesia in September last year, 12 years later.
The private sector is conflicted.
In 2013, a group of us, led by a former chief executive of a large listed company, put together a statement for business to endorse, and thereby take a stance against the unsustainable practice of burning to clear land. The move met with some success until it encountered resistance from those who have extensive business interests in the plantation sector and in Indonesia.
Second, consumer boycotts are a tried and tested way of getting companies to improve their practices. I started a Facebook group, Haze Elimination Action Team, to mobilise consumers. One of its objectives is to fight the haze through consumer boycotts. True, to be more effective, we need to work across borders and target the large companies. We also need consumer education. So we need to press forward on those fronts.
Singapore's Transboundary Haze Pollution Act was expected to drive large companies to mask their illegal activities using smaller firms. Amid the current haze, the self-regulatory body Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) has said that up until Aug 24, none of its 600 or so plantation members had fires in their land concessions.
While this is a laudable achievement, fires have since been found on the land of some of those who supply palm oil to the RSPO members. Again, this is where our strategy must adapt to look at the palm oil supply chain and prevent "irresponsible palm oil" from being sold.
The Act has apparently caused some companies to put out feelers about relocating their corporate domicile away from Singapore to avoid being prosecuted and sued. This suggests that the law is taken seriously but that we need to adapt our strategy.
What can consumers do?
For paper, our offices should use only those that are sustainably sourced and not simply ask for three quotations and buy from the cheapest supplier. Government offices and large organisations can show the way. It makes no sense to save money on office paper and spend much more on healthcare.
Finally, there is one big reason we should aim to do something. No matter how seemingly feeble our attempt may appear to be, to do nothing is to encourage the burning to continue every year. In fact, the rather lackadaisical attitude of Singaporeans when the Pollutant Standards Index was in the 100 to 200 range suggests that we have begun to accept the burning. The companies rely on this - hoping that we will forget about the haze once burning season is over. To accept the haze, however, is tantamount to condoning the burning practices. It means choosing to do nothing and quite literally die from the haze over time.
Singaporeans should not think we are losing in the war against haze producers.
It is the other guy who is backpedalling. Let us keep pushing.
The writer is a professor at the Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information, Nanyang Technological University and a vice-president of the Consumers Association of Singapore.
The National Environment Agency has forecast the next 24 hours to be in the low- to mid-section of the Unhealthy range.
Channel NewsAsia 27 Sep 15;
SINGAPORE: With the National Environment Agency’s (NEA) forecast for Monday (Sep 28) to be in the Unhealthy range, all schools, Ministry of Education (MOE) Kindergartens and Voluntary Welfare Organisation (VWO) run special education schools in Singapore will reopen on Monday.
On Friday, MOE had said that all primary and secondary schools would reopen on Monday, unless NEA's 24-hour PSI forecast indicated that the air quality could be at the Hazardous level.
In a press release on Sunday, MOE said: “Schools have in place a set of haze management plans and are ready to implement the appropriate haze management measures. Schools are also equipped with air purifiers and there are sufficient enclosed spaces to cater to their student population.”
While air quality is in the Unhealthy range, schools will minimise outdoor activities and exempt students who are unwell, or with pre-existing lung or heart conditions, from all physical exercise.
Originally set to have taken place on Sep 25, the Singapore-Cambridge GCE O-Level music and higher music practical examinations will now be on Tuesday (Sep 29), 8am.
In a separate release, the Islamic Religious Council of Singapore (MUIS) said all full-time primary and secondary madrasahs, mosque part-time madrasahs and mosque kindergartens will also reopen on Monday.
NEA on Sunday said "the 24-hour PSI for the next 24 hours is expected to be in the low- to mid-section of the Unhealthy range, with a possibility of entering the high-section of the Unhealthy range if denser haze is blown in by unfavourable winds".
- CNA/ek
Hazy conditions expected to persist on Monday: NEA
The 24-hour PSI for the next 24 hours is expected to be in the low- to mid-sections of the Unhealthy range, said the National Environment Agency.
Channel NewsAsia 27 Sep 15;
SINGAPORE: Hazy conditions are expected to persist on Monday (Sep 28), with winds forecast to blow from the south or south-southwest, said the National Environment Agency in an advisory on Sunday (Sep 27).
"The 24-hour PSI for the next 24 hours is expected to be in the low- to mid-sections of the Unhealthy range, with a possibility of entering the high-section of the Unhealthy range if denser haze is blown in by unfavourable winds," the advisory said.
Slightly hazy conditions on Sunday were due to the moderate to dense haze still persisting in central and southern Sumatra. "Some haze has spread to the sea areas west and south of Singapore," said NEA.
A total of 61 hotspots were detected in Sumatra on Sunday. NEA said the low count was due to the "cloud cover over parts of Sumatra". It added that most of the hotspots were detected in southern Sumatra. On Saturday, 24 hotspots were detected.
Indonesia has assured Singapore that it is taking the haze very seriously, said Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean in a Facebook post on Sunday.
"My Indonesian counterpart, Coordinating Minister Luhut Panjaitan, phoned me this afternoon. He assured me that the Indonesian government is taking the haze very seriously and deploying more troops to deal with the fires," said Mr Teo.
Mr Teo added that he told the minister that "Singapore’s offer to assist Indonesia in our own small way to put out the fires still stands – it would be a sign of cooperation between our two countries, so that Indonesians and Singaporeans need not suffer the haze".
Air quality forecast to be in unhealthy range today
NG JING YNG Today Online 28 Sep 15;
SINGAPORE — After a relatively clear weekend, air quality began deteriorating yesterday evening and is forecast to enter unhealthy territory today. But schools will re-open following an unprecedented closure last Friday as the haze is expected to stay below the hazardous mark.
The 24-hour Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) today is expected to be in the low to mid sections of the unhealthy range of between 101 and 200, and could enter the high end of the range if winds are unfavourable, said the National Environment Agency. “Moderate-to-dense haze” could still be seen in central and southern Sumatra, and 61 hot spots were detected, with the low count due to cloud cover.
As of 8am, the 24-hour PSI was 118 to 138, the three-hour PSI was 134, and the one-hour PM2.5 concentration was 77 to 124 microgrammes per cubic metre. This was a decline from the moderate air quality Singaporeans experienced over most of the weekend, when the 24-hour and three-hour PSI stayed below the 100 mark.
In a Facebook post yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean said his Indonesian counterpart, Mr Luhut Panjaitan, phoned him in the afternoon to assure him that Indonesia was taking the haze very seriously and deploying more troops to fight fires.
“I informed him that we receive many questions from Singaporeans and the international community, and will have to let them know, factually, the seriousness of the haze situation,” said Mr Teo. “I also informed him that Singapore’s offer to assist Indonesia in our own small way to put out the fires still stands — it would be a sign of cooperation between our two countries, so that Indonesians and Singaporeans need not suffer the haze.”
Last week, the Republic was hit by its worst spell of haze since 2013 when the 24-hour PSI entered hazardous territory, peaking at a range of 267 to 322 at 8am on Friday. The authorities had decided a day earlier to close primary and secondary schools, as well as Ministry of Education kindergartens and special education schools.
The People’s Association designated haze shelters at community centres and Residents’ Committee centres, and set up distribution points to give out N95 masks to eligible low-income and elderly Singaporeans and permanent residents.
On Saturday, the Ministry of Health said 2,200 claims have been made under the Haze Subsidy scheme at polyclinics since Sept 16. While total figures are still being collated, polyclinic claims made up about 15 per cent of the total in the 2013 haze episode.
Confirming that schools would reopen today, the MOE assured that schools have haze management plans. “Schools are also equipped with air purifiers and there are sufficient enclosed spaces to cater to their student population,” the ministry said.
The Early Childhood Development Agency said childcare centres and kindergartens, which stayed open but scaled back on activities, will resume its programmes today, but will adjust its lessons in accordance to PSI levels.
WeCare PAcks distributed to Pulau Ubin residents
There are about 80 elderly residents registered on Pulau Ubin. About 30 of them live there.
Chan Luo Er Channel NewsAsia 27 Sep 15;
SINGAPORE: Residents in Pulau Ubin on Sunday (Sep 27) were given vitamins, eye drops and other necessities in a package called the WeCare PAck - a joint initiative by People's Association (PA) and NTUC FairPrice Foundation - to help them cope with the haze.
Grassroots leaders had started distributing N95 masks to elderly residents in Pulau Ubin on Friday, when the 3-hour PSI hit 341 - its highest point this year at 5am, climbing into the Hazardous level.
On Sunday, MP for East Coast GRC Dr Maliki Osman, guided elderly residents on how to wear an N95 mask properly as he made his way around homes and shops. There are about 80 elderly residents registered on Pulau Ubin. About 30 of them live there.
"Over the last couple of days, we are of course very concerned about the haze situation and how our pioneers who are living alone are managing on their own here,” he said. “So last couple of days, I've sent my grassroots leaders who are living on Ubin to visit them to give them masks first. Today we visited them again, to see for myself and my grassroots leaders, how else we can support and help them based on their condition."
Residents can also collect their masks at a collection point on the island which is located at the village chief's bicycle shop.
- CNA/ek
Can haze take a toll on one's emotional health?
Some doctors in Singapore say they've seen more anxiety-related cases over the past two weeks, compared to previously.
Kenneth Lim Channel NewsAsia 27 Sep 15;
SINGAPORE: Most of us know what the haze can do to your body - a running nose, eye irritations, and a dry cough, for example - but could it take a toll on one's emotional health as well? Some doctors in Singapore say they have seen more anxiety-related cases over the past two weeks, compared to previously.
"I think it's the frustration that they expect the haze to be over, but it's getting worse,” said Dr Raymond Yuen, a general practitioner at the Hosanna Medical Centre. “So it's out of control. And this 'out of control' itself causes a lot of stress to a lot of people."
Dr Yuen says he has seen about 15 to 20 per cent more patients with illness that could be caused by stress or anxiety, which include insomnia and shortness of breath.
Doctors say emotional support goes a long way towards helping such patients.
"I believe most of these conditions are mild and transient, so what they require is probably just for them to take care of themselves,” says Dr Lee Cheng, a senior consultant at the Institute of Mental Health.
“Physical health is very important, and also if any one of them requires any support or any advice, I think they can get it from family members or even from their colleagues, working partners and other loved ones."
- CNA/ek
Singapore Schools Reopen as Haze Hits Malaysia Institutions
Klaus Wille Bloomberg News 28 Sep 15;
Singapore schools reopened on Monday after pollution from Indonesian forest fires led to their closure on Friday, while Malaysia closed more education institutions as the air quality remains unhealthy in areas near Kuala Lumpur.
The three-hour pollutant standards index in Singapore worsened on Monday morning, rising to 132 at 9 a.m. in the "unhealthy range" after the city-state got some respite with the air quality in the moderate for most of the weekend. The measure had climbed to the year’s high of 341 on Friday morning, entering the hazardous level for the first time. A reading exceeding 300 is classified as “hazardous”.
In addition to shutting its grade and high schools, the city-state also suspended some outdoor events on Friday as smoke from the forest fires shrouded the city-state with a layer of haze. A prolonged period of high pollution levels would hurt its economy, said Vishnu Varathan, a Singapore-based economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd.
“So far, the impact on the economy is not significant as the haze didn’t last long,” Varathan said. “That would change if we had higher levels of air pollution for three weeks or longer.”
Singapore residents are expected to adjust their plans for now, heading to the malls instead of outdoor activities, he said. If it lasts longer, people may choose to stay home, which will dent industries such as transportation and entertainment, he said.
Malaysia ordered more schools to close after air quality in areas surrounding Kuala Lumpur worsened to “very unhealthy” levels over the weekend. The Air Pollutant Index has since improved with three districts near the capital recording unhealthy levels as of 8 a.m compared to eight districts earlier on, according to data on the Malaysian Department of Environment website. Schools in Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang, one district in Perak and two areas in Sarawak were asked to shut on Monday, the education ministry said.
Smoke from Indonesian forest fires has blanketed Southeast Asia with a layer of haze in the past few weeks. Data compiled by Global Forest Watch showed a concentration of fires in parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra and Kalimantan, driving the air quality of cities located in the areas to hazardous levels.
The effects of the haze depends on wind direction, with the weather pattern playing a role in pollution levels, said Gabriel Lau, an earth system science professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Singapore also named four Indonesian companies that it says may have contributed to the fires and said it would apply more pressure on palm oil and forestry companies responsible for the burning.
Temasek Holdings Pte, Singapore’s state-owned investment company, reiterated in a statement Monday its support for a “no burn” policy and called on plantation owners to do the same. The state investor said its joint venture with Cargill Inc., the world’s biggest food-production company, has confirmed there are no fires on its plantations.
Under the programme, Singapore will work with partners to provide technical assistance and capacity building to developing countries in the areas of leadership and governance, sustainable cities, and water and sanitation solutions.
Channel NewsAsia 28 Sep 15;
UNITED NATIONS: Singapore on Sunday (Sep 27) announced at a United Nations summit that it will launch a new programme where it will work with partners on sustainable development.
Speaking at the UN Sustainable Development Summit in New York, Minister for Environment and Water Resources Vivian Balakrishnan said the programme supports the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – a global framework which outlines 17 goals to wipe out poverty, fight inequality and tackle climate change over the next 15 years.
“As a responsible global citizen, Singapore will continue to give back to the international community,” Dr Balakrishnan said.
Under the new Sustainable Development Programme, Singapore will work with partners to provide technical assistance and capacity building to developing countries in the areas of leadership and governance, sustainable cities, and water and sanitation solutions.
In his speech, Dr Balakrishnan also raised the problem of transboundary haze as an example of an “issue of sustainable development which cannot be addressed unilaterally”.
“Countries are individually tackling this problem of transboundary haze. But we need closer regional and international cooperation to apply legal and commercial pressure on errant companies to prevent them from profiting from unsustainable land and forest clearing,” he said.
- CNA/cy
Sustainable development issues cannot be addressed unilaterally: Minister Vivian Balakrishnan
Today Online 28 Sep 15;
SINGAPORE — Many issues of sustainable development cannot be addressed unilaterally, and renewed commitment and enhanced partnerships from all stakeholders — including states, international financial institutions and civil society — will be needed for the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to work, said Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Vivian Balakrishnan.
Dr Balakrishnan was delivering Singapore’s national statement at the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit in New York City yesterday (Sept 27). The 2030 Agenda is a new long-term global development framework that will succeed the Millennium Development Goals.
Citing the transboundary haze currently plaguing Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore as example, Dr Balakrishnan noted it has affected the health of millions in the region, damaged the economy and the large quantities of carbon dioxide released is setting back efforts to mitigate climate change.
“Countries are individually tackling the problem of transboundary haze. But we need closer regional and international cooperation to apply legal and commercial pressure in order to prevent errant companies from profiting from unsustainable land and forest clearing,” said Dr Balakrishnan.
He also outlined Singapore’s approach to sustainable development, which he said is underpinned by two factors: pragmatism in governance and implementation, and partnerships to build capacity.
The Republic’s water policy is an example that reflects the Government’s pragmatic focus on outcomes rather than ideology. To diversify water supply, Singapore expanded water catchments and turned to membrane technology to turn waste water into high-grade water. The Republic is also now turning to smart technology — for example, 200 smart sensors in drains around Singapore automatically tweet data on water levels and flood probability.
Singapore has also developed human capital, by investing heavily in education, and help the workforce acquire skills for the future. Singapore will also continue to give back to the international community, such through a new Sustainable Development Programme under the Singapore Cooperation Programme (SCP).
The SCP conducts 300 courses for 7,000 officials from fellow developing countries each year.
The new Sustainable Development Programme will offer leadership programmes on good governance and public sector institutions in partnership with the UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence. It will also cooperate with UN-Habitat to roll out a multi-year programme on sustainable cities and urbanisation for 100 cities from the developing world.
And it will work with partners like UNICEF and UN-Water to provide training and consultancy on water and sanitation solutions for countries in need.
“National pride of ownership and innate motivation are the biggest drivers of sustainable development. We applaud the 2030 Agenda for providing peoples and governments around the world with the necessary tools to take ownership of their own futures,” added Dr Balakrishnan.
Singapore reveals new sustainable development programme at UN summit
Today Online 28 Sep 15;
SINGAPORE — Many issues of sustainable development cannot be addressed unilaterally, and renewed commitment and enhanced partnerships from all stakeholders — including states, international financial institutions and civil society — will be needed for the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to work, said Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Vivian Balakrishnan.
To that end, Singapore will be launching a new Sustainable Development Programme under the Singapore Cooperation Programme (SCP), a long-running initiative that conducts 300 courses for 7,000 officials from developing countries each year. The new programme will offer leadership training and work with UN bodies on development plans and solutions for the developing world.
Dr Balakrishnan announced this as he delivered Singapore’s national statement at the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit in New York City yesterday (Sept 27).
The 2030 Agenda is a new long-term global development framework that will succeed the Millennium Development Goals.
Citing the transboundary haze currently plaguing Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore as an example of an issue that cannot be dealt with unilaterally, Dr Balakrishnan noted it has affected the health of millions in the region, damaged the economy and the large quantities of carbon dioxide released are setting back efforts to mitigate climate change.
“Countries are individually tackling the problem of transboundary haze. But we need closer regional and international cooperation to apply legal and commercial pressure in order to prevent errant companies from profiting from unsustainable land and forest clearing,” said Dr Balakrishnan.
He also outlined Singapore’s approach to sustainable development, which he said is underpinned by two factors: Pragmatism in governance and implementation, and partnerships to build capacity.
The Republic’s water policy is an example that reflects the Government’s pragmatic focus on outcomes rather than ideology. To diversify water supply, Singapore expanded water catchments and turned to membrane technology to turn waste water into high-grade water. The Republic is also now turning to smart technology — for example, 200 smart sensors in drains around Singapore automatically tweet data on water levels and flood probability.
Singapore has also developed human capital by investing heavily in education and is helping the workforce acquire skills for the future.
The new Sustainable Development Programme will offer leadership programmes on good governance and public sector institutions in partnership with the UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence.
It will also cooperate with UN-Habitat to roll out a multi-year programme on sustainable cities and urbanisation for 100 cities from the developing world. And it will work with partners such as the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and UN-Water to provide training and consultancy on water and sanitation solutions for countries in need.
“National pride of ownership and innate motivation are the biggest drivers of sustainable development. We applaud the 2030 Agenda for providing peoples and governments around the world with the necessary tools to take ownership of their own futures,” added Dr Balakrishnan.
Today Online 27 Sep 15;
SINGAPORE — The Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority (AVA) has suspended commercial import of dogs and cats from Malaysia, in light of reports of recent rabies outbreaks in three Malaysian states.
The AVA has also changed Malaysia’s rabies risk category from “C” — for countries with controlled risk or low incidence of rabies — to “D”, which is for countries with undetermined risk of rabies, for the personal imports of dogs and cats. This means that these personal imports will face stricter pre-import rabies vaccination requirements and longer post-arrival quarantine periods in Singapore.
These changes have been in place since Sept 22. As of Sept 20, the disease has spread to three states in Malaysia, namely Penang, Perlis and Kedah. The AVA said that according to news reports, of the 39 dog bite cases so far, 10 of the dogs have been confirmed rabid. There have been no human deaths reported so far. Until the latest outbreak, first reported on August 24, the last case of rabies in Malaysia was in 1999. The authorities have reportedly culled over 900 stray dogs in a bid to battle the outbreak.
In a media factsheet released ahead of World Rabies Day tomorrow (Sept 28), the AVA said it has activated the delivery of 50,000 doses of animal rabies vaccines from the OIE Regional Rabies Vaccine Bank in Asia as part of its contingency plan. “Singapore would then have 55,000 doses of animal rabies vaccines for emergency vaccination in the event of an imminent threat or a local outbreak,” the authority said.
It also issued a set of FAQs to vet clinics on Sept 9 and vets have been reminded to alert the AVA on illegally imported animals and suspect cases, it added.
While Singapore has kept its own nuclear plans on the back-burner, authorities need to engage the public and educate them on nuclear developments in the region, experts say.
Monica Kotwani, Channel NewsAsia 27 Sep 15;
SINGAPORE: As the region increasingly looks to nuclear power plants to solve its energy woes, experts say it is critical for Singapore to be adequately prepared.
While Singapore has kept its own nuclear plans on the back-burner, authorities need to engage the public and educate them on nuclear developments in the region.
For decades more than 30 countries have been generating power in some 400 nuclear plants. In 2012, about 10 per cent of the world's electricity was generated from nuclear energy, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute website.
But the shock of the Fukushima disaster in 2011 reverberated across the world and prompted countries with nuclear power to take stock of the safety of their plants.
Some European countries like Germany are taking their plants off the grid, instead importing nuclear-powered electricity from France. In Asia, plans have been delayed but not derailed. China and India, between them, have almost 50 nuclear plants in operation and are building even more.
In Southeast Asia, Vietnam could have its first power reactors by 2020. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have also made plans.
"Southeast Asia is quasi-completely dependent on fossil fuels,” said Professor Arnoud De Meyer, President of Singapore Management University. “There are a few exceptions of windmill-generated or other forms of energy but practically all electricity generation is based on fossil fuels, which makes this part of the world very dependent on supply from elsewhere."
Nuclear-based energy can add security and stability to the region's source of energy. For Singapore, 95 per cent of its electricity comes from natural gas powered plants. Its cost is tied to oil prices.
CHEAPER ALTERNATIVE?
Experts say Singapore's choice, although the cleanest among fossil fuels, is also an expensive choice. In homes for example, the cost of electricity is currently 22.41 cents per kilowatt-hour. But this could be three to five times higher than what homeowners pay in the United States. This is because the cost associated with importing natural gas to run Singapore’s power plants is also higher.
Electricity could be cheaper if nuclear-generated energy was added to the mix. Cost savings aside, the region is also under pressure to take stock of its carbon emission levels amidst rapid development.
In recent years, Singapore has been ramping up infrastructure to capitalise on solar energy, but experts say the country's size limits how much electricity it can derive from solar power. Clean energy from nuclear plants could be an answer.
Inside a nuclear reactor's pressurised vessel are metal rods containing uranium pellets. Thermal neutrons split uranium atoms in a process called fission reaction.
This process releases energy and more neutrons which in the presence of water are absorbed by other uranium atoms, causing them to split and resulting in more energy being released.
The energy, or radiation, is used to heat up water to produce steam. The steam drives turbines which generate electricity. The steam is then converted back to water for the next cycle.
Through this process, nuclear powered plants release no carbon emissions into the atmosphere. What is usually seen coming out of towers at nuclear plants is water vapour - a by-product of cooling heated water.
Radioactive waste that is produced in the first part of the process is typically buried deep underground.
Unlike nuclear-powered plants, coal-powered plants release massive amounts of greenhouse gases when generating electricity. Natural gas may be the cleanest of all fossil fuels, but plants running on this still release half the amount of carbon dioxide that coal plants emit.
SIZE MATTERS
In 2010, Singapore embarked on an extensive study of whether nuclear-based electricity could be added to its energy mix. Two years later, it concluded that nuclear risks for Singapore outweighed the benefits.
"It was all to do with size,” said Professor Tim White, co-director of Nanyang Technological University’s Energy Research Institute.
“The first factor was that we did not really need a very large single nuclear reactor. Singapore just does not have that need for energy. So we would have had to look at modular designs, but none of those designs are actually operating at the moment - at least for power. So Singapore did not want to be the first one off the rack to take these new designs.
“The other concern was that after Fukushima, it was realised that the exclusion zone around the reactor was in fact as large as Singapore. So that meant one Fukushima accident in Singapore and that’s the end of the country. Those combined factors meant that the time was not right. And I think that was certainly the correct decision."
BUILDING SINGAPORE’S NUCLEAR KNOWLEDGE
But the study also concluded that Singapore needs to build up its nuclear knowledge and capability. In 2014, the government announced it would set aside S$63 million over five years for the Nuclear Safety Research and Education Programme.
The programme would train local scientists and engineers in three key areas - radiochemistry, radiobiology and risk assessment. The programme is being rolled out by the National Research Foundation.
"Even if Singapore would never have electricity generation by nuclear sources, countries around us will do it, or may well do it,” said Prof De Meyer. “But nuclear radiation is not something that stops at borders. If there is an accident or a problem, Singapore will be automatically influenced by it.
“On top of that, nuclear sources of radiation not exclusively used for power generation. We see it in nuclear medicine. We see it in some measurement instruments. Radiation is with us today.
"From that perspective, it's logical that a country like Singapore prepares itself for measuring nuclear radiation in atmosphere, understands what the impact of nuclear radiation is - even if it is low levels on our bodies and on people - and simulates to figure out what if there is a disaster."
REGIONAL COLLABORATION
This building up of expertise could well take 15 years. Experts like Prof White and Prof De Meyer are certain the topic of nuclear energy will be revisited and say future options could also include regional collaboration, similar to what Europe is doing.
In this case, Singapore could obtain nuclear-based energy from other Southeast Asian countries.
But first, one expert says ASEAN needs a regulatory framework to address transboundary issues such as the management of nuclear fuel, waste and risk management.
And locally, it is more important than ever for authorities to engage the public on nuclear-related developments and concerns, whether or not Singapore ever hosts nuclear power plants.
“If something happens, for example, in Indonesia's nuclear facility, which will be built very close to Singapore, it will affect the whole country,” said Associate Professor Sulfikar Amir from NTU’s School of Humanities and Social Sciences.
“The people need to know what kind of risk they are facing if something were to happen, if a Fukushima-like nuclear disaster were to happen in a Southeast Asian country. They need to understand the kind of risk they are dealing with. It is part of disaster resilience that needs to be built in Singapore.”
Professor Amir says this can start by involving schools to create an awareness at an early age and by having more open public discussions at a grassroots level.
- CNA/ec
RAZAK AHMAD, NEVILLE SPYKERMAN, SHARON LING, SHARANPAL SINGH, KATHLEEN ANN KILI, VINCENT LIAN, AND N. TRISHA The Star 28 Sep 15;
PETALING JAYA: Air quality in the Klang Valley fell to very unhealthy levels yesterday, forcing the closure of hundreds of schools as well as flight cancellations and delays as thick haze cut visibility at Subang airport.
The highest Air Pollutant Index (API) reading was in Shah Alam with 281 at 11am, the highest recorded since the onset of the haze late last month.
A reading of 100 to 200 indicates unhealthy air quality, 201 to 300 is very unhealthy and above 300 hazardous.
Four other areas with unhealthy API readings were Putrajaya, which peaked at 207 at noon; Batu Muda in Kuala Lumpur (256 at 11am); Petaling Jaya (232 at 11am); and Port Klang (255 at 10am).
The readings fell after noon but air quality in 19 areas remained unhealthy at 5pm including Kuching (126), Sri Aman (176), Samarahan (144), Tanjung Malim (148) and Seremban (133).
The Education Ministry ordered the closure of all schools in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Negri Sembilan, Pahang, Tanjung Malim (Perak) as well as Sri Aman, Kuching and Samarahan in Sarawak.
Kuching International Airport (KIA) senior manager Mohd Nadzim Hashim said a Kuching to Pontianak flight and another from Pontianak to Kuching were cancelled due to the haze.
Further flights on the route have been suspended, while nine flights to and from Kuala Lumpur as well as Sibu were delayed.
Malindo Air CEO Chandran Rama Muthy said eight of his airline’s flights at Subang’s Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah airport were delayed by up to two hours in the morning.
“We expect flight times to normalise in the evening if the weather improves,” he said.
Firefly Airlines operations were back to normal at Subang by about 4pm.
The airlines urged affected passengers to contact its call centre at 03-7845 4543 or Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd’s info desk at 03-7842 2773 for information on their flights.
An MAHB spokesman said flight operations at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) and KLIA2 were unaffected.
The Natural Resources and Environment Ministry said the haze situation got worse yesterday in the Klang Valley, Malacca, Negri Sembilan, Pahang and Sarawak due to winds blowing the haze from an increasing number of fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia.
The statement said that for the next few days, a typhoon off Japan would also cause winds carrying the haze to blow across Malaysia from the south-west.
MetMalaysia predicts that the API readings throughout the country will finally begin to come down early next month with the arrival of the inter-monsoon that will bring more rain.
Haze: API readings reached very unhealthy levels as of 9am Sunday
T. AVINESHWARAN The Star 27 Sep 15;
PETALING JAYA: The air quality here and in areas like Port Klang, Shah Alam and Batu Muda has gone from bad to worse as the Air Pollutant Index (API) readings reached very unhealthy levels.
As of 9am Sunday, the API readings for Port Klang was 248, Shah Alam (268), Petaling Jaya (210) and Batu Muda (237), according to the Department of Environment's website.
Other areas with unhealthy air quality were Bandaraya Melaka (101); Bukit Rambai, Melaka (108); Nilai (142); Port Dickson (133); Seremban (153); Jerantut, Pahang (117); Seri Manjung, Perak (118); Tanjung Malim, Perak (136); Kuching, Sarawak (141); Samarahan, Sarawak (142); Sri Aman, Sarawak (185); Banting, Selangor (182); Kuala Selangor (169); Cheras (172); and Putrajaya (193).
The Natural Resources and Environment Ministry said in a statement that the haze caused by land and forest fires in Indonesia was currently being blown by winds from Kalimantan to west Sarawak.
It said a map issued by the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre also showed the haze moving from central Sumatra to the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia.
Schools in Putrajaya, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, Negri Sembilan and Malacca were closed on Sept 15 after API readings in some of the areas rose to nearly 200.
A reading of 100 to 200 indicates unhealthy air quality, while 201 to 300 is very unhealthy and above 300 hazardous. A reading of 51 to 100 is moderate.
The Star 28 Sep 15;
JOHOR BARU: The worsening haze has contributed to an increase in respiratory-related illnesses in the state with 19,655 cases recorded during the first two weeks of the month.
Johor Health and Environment Committee chairman Datuk Ayub Rahmat said there was also a marked spike in hospital admissions for respiratory ailments, from 28,768 in July to 30,118 in August.
“We believe that the hazy weather contributed to the increase as 19,655 cases were recorded within just 15 days this month,” he said.
Ayub said patients with respiratory illness were given priority for hospital admission because they were in the high-risk category.
He said health clinics had been handing out face masks to chronic patients who face higher risks of falling ill due to the haze.
“I hope that various departments and the private sector can also help distribute face masks to members of the public or their workers.
“People should also refrain from outdoor activities and drink more water during this period,” Ayub added.
The Air Pollution Index readings in all areas in the state were at average levels, between 58 and 72 as of 2pm yesterday.
Meanwhile, six domestic flights were cancelled at the Senai International Airport here due to the hazy weather that affected operations in the Subang Airport in Selangor.
The airport’s chief operations officer Noor Safura Suib said that the flights were unable to depart from the Subang Airport due to poor visibility, resulting in the cancellations here.
The visibility here, however, has been clear and good for take off, she told The Star when contacted here on Sunday (Sept 27).
Haze forces some schools to shut
The Star 28 Sep 15;
PETALING JAYA: All schools in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Negri Sembilan, Pahang and some in Sarawak and Perak will be closed today due to the worsening haze.
The affected schools in Perak are in Tanjung Malim while those in Sarawak are in Sri Aman, Kuching and Samarahan.
The Education Ministry said the decision was made because the Air Pollutant Index (API) readings in the areas reached unhealthy levels of between 101 and 200 and very unhealthy levels of between 201 and 300.
The ministry’s statement was posted on its website and Facebook page, as well as on the Facebook and Twitter sites of Education Minister Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid and Deputy Education Minister P. Kamanalathan.
Parent Sandra Lee welcomed the early announcement as it gave her enough time to make arrangements for someone to take care of her two school-going children.
“This is much better than what happened two weeks ago when the ministry made the announcement at close to midnight that schools would be closed the next day,” said the 45-year-old Petaling Jaya resident.
Another parent, John Raj, 39, felt that schools should remain open, as students would still have to breathe the same polluted air, whether at home or at school.
“They can just remain indoors and not go out for outdoor activities.
“It’s better to have them occupied at school, whether in class or at the library, than just sitting around at home,” said the father of three.
In Kuching, parents welcomed the ministry’s announcement.
Retail service manager Nancy Nais said it was the right move as the unhealthy air quality was not good for children, especially those with health problems.
“Although my daughter has not had any health issues with the haze so far, why wait for something to happen.
“The only problem for me is that she is going to get bored at home,” she said.
The state Education Department said the closure affected 265 schools in Kuching, 198 in Samarahan and 70 in Sri Aman.
Of the 533 schools in all three divisions, 462 are primary schools and 71 secondary schools involving a total of 199,167 students and 16,841 teachers.
At 2pm yesterday, the API was 133 in Kuching, 145 in Samarahan and 186 in Sri Aman.
Haze: Schools can close if visibility below 500m
The Star 27 Sep 15;
PUTRAJAYA: From Monday, school managements and district education offices (PPD) are given the authority to decide on the school closure if visibility drops to less than 500 metres.
Education Minister Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid said previously, schools in areas affected by the haze would only be closed if the air pollutant index (API) readings reached 200, which were very unhealthy.
"I have discussed with the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry yesterday and decided that besides the API, visibility can also be taken into account in determining the closure of schools.
"This means, even if the API is still between 100 and 120, but the visibility in the area is below 500 metres, we allow the PPD and headmaster to close the affected school," he told a press conference here Sunday.
All schools in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Negri Sembilan, Pahang, Tanjung Malim, Sri Aman, Kuching and Samarahan in Sarawak have been ordered closed following a deterioration in the API reading.
Mahdzir said the ministry had also decided that announcement on whether schools would be closed or operated as usual the next day would be made at 2pm every day.
On parents' request that schools should be closed in three or four consecutive days, he said the proposal was logical but the ministry must take into account various factors, including the possibility of changes in the API reading.
More importantly, parents need to know that every decision made by the ministry is based on what will happen tomorrow, he said.
Haze: Flights to Ipoh delayed, diverted
The Star 27 Sep 15;
IPOH: Six flights - three departures and three arrivals - were delayed due to the haze at the Sultan Azlan Shah Airport here Sunday.
Malaysia Airports Sdn Bhd operations officer Tengku Mahmud Tengku Zainal said the flights were delayed due to poor visibility at the airport, which was 600 metres.
He said the delay involved the departure flights for the Ipoh-Singapore and Ipoh-Johor Baru sectors, while the arrival flights were for the Singapore-Ipoh and Johor-Ipoh sectors.
The delay involved 344 passengers - 157 for arrival and 187 for departure, he told Bernama.
Tengku Mahmud said the haze also caused flight TR2482 from Singapore, which was scheduled to arrive at 3.05 pm, to be diverted to KLIA2.
He said the airlines affected were Tiger Air, Firefly and Malindo Air.
Haze: All Kuching-Pontianak flights cancelled
The Star 27 Sep 15;
KUCHING: All flights involving the Kuching-Pontianak and Pontianak-Kuching sector have been cancelled until further notice.
"All flights to and from Pontianak have been cancelled until further notice.
There are no passengers stranded from the sector here since early notice was given," said Kuching International Airport (KIA) general manager Mohd Nadzim Hashim.
He said four flights that were scheduled to depart and arrive here (KIA) were delayed due to the haze Sunday morning as visibility was reduced to just 800m.
He said the delayed flights were Kuching-Kuala Lumpur, Kuching-Sibu, Kuala Lumpur-Kuching and Sibu-Kuching.
"The delay involved 333 passengers," he told said when contacted.
Mohd Nadzim said flight MH2542 from Kuala Lumpur to Kuching with 65 passengers on board was diverted to Sibu, due to the worsening haze condition in Kuching. – Bernama
Malaysia again shuts schools as Indonesian smoke thickens
The Ministry of Education ordered schools shut on Monday in the capital and three states due to health concerns, the second time this month it has had to issue such an order.
Channel NewsAsia 27 Sep 15;
KUALA LUMPUR: Thick white smoke from Indonesian slash-and-burn farming enveloped Malaysia's capital and other areas Sunday (Sep 27), triggering school closures for the following day as weeks of choking haze showed no sign of abating.
Pollution readings in Kuala Lumpur soared into the Very Unhealthy territory in the Malaysian government's hourly air-quality index.
The Ministry of Education ordered schools shut on Monday in the capital and three states - Selangor, Putrajaya and Negri Sembilan - due to health concerns, the second time this month it has had to issue such an order.
Malaysia, Singapore and large expanses of Indonesia have suffered for weeks from acrid smoke billowing from fires on plantations and peatlands that are being illegally cleared by burning.
The fires are located on Indonesia's huge islands of Sumatra and Borneo. The crisis grips the region nearly every year during the dry season, but the current outbreak is one of the worst and longest-lasting in years.
Authorities have said tens of thousands of people in the three countries have been forced to seek medical treatment for respiratory problems, and that dozens of flights have been cancelled or delayed due to poor visibility.
Indonesia has faced pressure from its neighbours to address the problem since it first emerged nearly 20 years ago.
SMOULDERING DISPUTE
But the issue has persisted, especially as plantations expand to meet rising global demand for products like palm oil, a key ingredient in a vast range of everyday consumer products.
Singapore on Friday ordered rare school closures across the city-state as air reached "hazardous" levels there, with Environment Minister Vivian Balakrishnan saying the problem has lasted "for far too long".
"This is not a natural disaster. Haze is a man-made problem that should not be tolerated. It has caused major impact on the health, society and economy of our region," he said in a statement.
The Singapore Government also said Friday it had launched legal action against five Indonesian companies blamed for the fires, including multinational Asia Pulp and Paper (APP), which could lead to massive fines.
Air quality in Singapore improved Sunday, dropping below the Unhealthy mark.
An airport just outside Kuala Lumpur closed temporarily on Saturday afternoon as visibility dropped to less then 400 metres. That forced at least 20 flights to be cancelled, according to Malaysian media reports.
Other reports on Sunday said air service between the Malaysian city of Kuching and Indonesia's Pontianak - both of which are on Borneo - was halted until further notice.
Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said Saturday that "fires continue to rage" despite a push to extinguish the blazes by more than 25,000 military, police and other personnel. He said new fires were cropping up, while some that were previously extinguished had flared anew or had been deliberately re-ignited.
Nugroho also said pollution readings in several Indonesian cities were at hazardous levels, and that nearly 168,000 people in the country had sought medical treatment for respiratory ailments.
Indonesia had earlier declared a state of emergency in Sumatra's hard-hit Riau province.
- AFP/ek
Antara 27 Sep 15;
Pekanbaru (ANTARA News) - Indonesia still looks helpless in dealing with thick smokes causing inconvenience including disrupting flight schedules from and to a number of cities.
The government has utilized all resources it has but apparently failed to put out forest and bush fires spewing the black smokes to the air
Thousands of travelers were stranded on Sunday in Pekanbaru, the capital city of Riau after tens of flights were canceled on thick smokes blanketing the airport of Sultan Syarif Kasim II.
The visibility at the airport is only from 50 meters to 300 meters making it impossible for an aircraft to take off and land at the airport.
"Until mid day today 36 flights schedule were already canceled on bad weather," Air Port Duty Manager of the airport Hasnan said.
Hasnan said normally everyday the airport recorded around 8,000 travelers arriving at and departing from the airport.
Long delay forces the travelers to demand for a refund for their tickets or reschedule their flights. Some of them plan to travel by sea or by cars.
In other areas such as in Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan, the people also still complained inconvenience such as about difficulty to breath on dense and dirty smokes.
Many people have suffered respiratory track infection because of the dirty smokes.
The condition on Sunday, however, was not as worse as on Saturday when visibility is between 10-20 meters in some places in the provincial city.
The organization of environmentalists (Walhi) of Central Kalimantan sharply criticized the government for failure to anticipate and take steps to prevent the annual problem.
The country has faced the problem over forest and bush fires every year in dry season.
This year the drought is worse with the El Nino weather phenomenon.
Singapore and Malaysia have protested Indonesian failure to cope with the forest fires that also pollute their air. (*)
RI remains alert as efforts to put out fires continue
Apriadi Gunawan and N. Adri, The Jakarta Post 27 Sep 15;
With the government’s recovery efforts progressing much slower than expected, land and forest fires have continued to raze many parts of the country, creating problems not only for locals but also those living in neighboring regions.
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency’s (BMKG) Pekanbaru station reported on Saturday that despite zero hot spots detected in Riau, the province was severely blanketed by haze produced by land and forest fires in neighboring provinces.
Of the 71 hot spots recorded on Saturday, 55 were located in South Sumatra, 12 in Lampung, three in Bangka Belitung and one in North Sumatra, according to the station.
Although no hot spots were found in Riau, the country’s largest oil-producing region remained vulnerable to thick haze as wind brought smoke produced by the fires to the north and southeast.
Station head Sugarin said Riau’s Indragiri Hulu and Pelalawan regencies were the worst hit by smoke on Saturday as visibility in the regions stood at 50 meters and 100 m, respectively.
“[Smoke] causes limited visibility in many regions. In Pekanbaru municipality, visibility was recorded at only 1,000 meters while in Dumai 2,000 meters,” Sugarin said, as quoted by Antara news agency.
Over the past several weeks, pollution originating from fires in peatland and plantations has hit several regions in Sumatra and Kalimantan, particularly West Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan.
The ongoing haze crisis has also been exacerbated by this year’s prolonged dry season triggered by the El Niño weather phenomenon.
Soon after his inauguration on Sept. 9, the new chief of the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), Willem Rampangilei, said the agency aimed to clear up the haze blanketing Sumatra in two weeks.
Among indicators of success, he said, were airports in the regions operating normally without disruption from haze, sending students back to school and reducing symptoms of acute respiratory infections (ISPA).
Approaching the end of the month, however, the government-led recovery efforts have been showing little progress, as the numbers of flight delays and detected hot spots continue to fluctuate.
In Pekanbaru, more than a dozen flights to and from Sultan Syarif Kasim II International Airport (SSK II) experienced delays on Saturday on account of poor visibility. Meanwhile, in North Sumatra, two flights scheduled to depart for Pekanbaru and Penang, Malaysia, from Kualanamu International Airport were also delayed due to a similar reason.
In East Kalimantan, fires that started on Wednesday to Friday have also burned down some 200 hectares in the Samboja Lestari orangutan sanctuary, located some 50 kilometers north of Balikpapan.
Contacted on Saturday, Samboja Police general crimes unit head Adj. First. Insp. Sriyanto said the police had questioned six people thus far to find the source of the fires.
The high intensity of haze has also forced the Palangkaraya municipal administration in Central Kalimantan to give students one week off from school, starting from Friday.
Bambang Muryanto, thejakartapost.com 27 Sep 15;
Environmental group Greenpeace Indonesia has criticized the government for its “weak” commitment to renewable energy development.
Greenpeace Indonesia director Longgena Ginting said the government was targeting renewable energy sources to account for just 17 percent of total energy use up to 2030.
“The government’s commitment to tackling climate change is still very low,” Longgena said. The environmental activist was speaking to journalists on the sidelines of the Buru Baru Festival, an event promoting the use of renewable energy among the people of Baru Beach in Bantul, Yogyakarta, where there is now a renewable energy-fueled power plant.
The two-day event, which ended on Sunday, also aimed to encourage the government to immediately shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind and micro-hydro power.
The festival saw Greenpeace Indonesia, together with hundreds of environmental activists, stage art performances beneath a banner emblazoned with the slogan #ActionForClimate. Workshops promoting green lifestyles were also held.
“This event is being put on simultaneously in 30 countries and aims to promote the importance of the use of renewable energy in tackling climate change,” said Longgena.
The activist said carbon emissions resulting from fossil-based fuels were the primary cause of the increase in the earth’s temperature.
It was hoped, he went on, that the government would seriously commit to reducing the use of fossil fuels and developing renewable energy, especially given the country’s wealth of renewable energy sources, adding that only by doing so could the government achieve its target of reducing carbon emissions by 26-40 percent by 2030. (ebf)
The Asian Development Bank is to double its annual lending for climate change adaptation to US$6 billion by 2020, the Philippines-based lender said.
Channel NewsAsia 26 Sep 15;
MANILA: The Asian Development Bank is to double its annual lending for climate change adaptation to US$6 billion by 2020, the Philippines-based lender said.
The initiative comes as world leaders adopted on Friday (Sep 25) an ambitious set of 17 global goals, including combating climate change and its impacts, ADB president Takehiko Nakao said in a statement sent to AFP.
"Nowhere is tackling climate change more critical than in Asia and the Pacific, where rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and weather extremes like floods and droughts are damaging livelihoods and taking far too many lives," he said.
Under the 2020 lending plan, ADB is to dedicate US$4 billion each year to climate change mitigation by boosting support for renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable transport, and building smart cities.
The other US$2 billion will be for adaptation through more resilient infrastructure, climate-smart agriculture, and better preparation for climate-related disasters, the Manila-based bank said.
By 2020, ADB spending on tackling climate change will rise to around 30 per cent of its overall financing, it added.
ADB annual lending and assistance totalled US$22.9 billion last year, it said.
- AFP/ec
Weather has caused planting delays in the southern states and while the price hike is limited to the US, experts wonder if parts of Asia will be next
Debbie Carlson The Guardian 27 Sep 15;
Blame El Niño. The weather phenomenon is causing havoc for US rice farmers and a sharp price spike in the world’s most important staple food may foreshadow possibly higher prices in Asia in the coming months.
While other commodities have hit recent lows, US rice futures prices are up nearly 40%, to about $12.90 per hundredweight, their highest level since August 2014. In sharp contrast, soybean and cotton prices are at their lowest level since early 2009, while sugar prices are just off their lowest levels since 2008. And matters are likely to get worse.
The latest El Niño pattern is cheering some in drought-ridden California where it promises some much needed rain and snow. But it caused planting delays this spring in the Mississippi Delta – Arkansas, Missisissipi and Louisiana – and Texas, the main US rice-growing regions. During the growing season, perpetually cloudy days and warm nights, caused by another weather system, created the worst conditions for rice production, said Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, an agricultural advisory firm. He noted harvests in Arkansas and Texas are likely to be about 15 to 20% below average. “The crop is an unmitigated disaster,” he said.
So far the price rally is limited to US rice prices, as Asian prices are still reflecting a large overhang in supplies, largely because of the former Thai government stockpiling rice – as much as a three-year supply, said Jack Scoville, vice-president at Price Futures Group, under a vote-buying scheme. All that rice caused prices to crater, so in the past few years farmers haven’t planted as much. Demand, though hasn’t changed, and a lot of the stocks that were built up are quickly vanishing.
And El Niño made its mark in south-east Asia, too, causing harvest shortfalls because of weather extremes such as floods in Burma and droughts in Thailand. Earlier this month the US Department of Agriculture reduced its forecast for global rice production because of lower harvests in several key countries. This is the first year-to-year decrease in global rice production since 2009-10, they said.
The world is quickly eating through big supplies created in the past few years. USDA’s forecast for the 2015-16 growing season estimates globally there will be 90.85m tonnes (metric tons) of rice available after accounting for supply and demand. While that seems plentiful, it’s down from 101.8m tonnes last year and 107.4m tonnes the year before. Bill Nelson, senior economist at Doane Advisory Service, said the average global inventory over the past 25 to 30 years is typically 100m tonnes or more, and that the last time the world had such small reserves was in 2007, when prices eventually hit record highs.
El Niño is expected to strengthen and peak later this year, but the impact of the weather anomaly could still be felt for four or five months afterward, possibly as late as early February, said Dale Molher, expert senior meteorologist at Accuweather.com
That could spell trouble for farmers in south-east Asian countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia who will face these ongoing dry conditions as they prepare to plant again soon. Because of less rain earlier in the year, reservoir levels are down, meaning less water to irrigate crops, Hackett said. As it is, the Thai government is restricting how much farmers can plant because of the drought.
The low Asian rice prices may not last as the combination of this summer’s harvest shortfalls, farmers possibly planting less and forecasts for detrimental weather will have future ramifications.
“El Niño is still going to be a major force as we move forward. Most of the effects are really yet to come. Production will be impacted, but no one knows how much,” Scoville said.
Currently, the price for high-quality Thai rice, a global benchmark, is around $350 a tonne. Comparatively, the US price, calculated in tonne, is $550. Normally US and Thai prices have only about a $60 to $70 difference, Hackett said.
Hackett and Scoville said there are signs Asian buyers are concerned about future supply which may boost prices there. The Philippines is importing rice because of harvest shortfalls, and Indonesia may import rice for the same reason, they said. In August, Burma put an export ban in place because of low supplies.
“So far the Asian price has been stable to weak because of the Thai [situation] and India had a pretty good crop. But I think the worm is going to turn over there … sooner than later,” Scoville said, who said prices could start to move by the end of the year.
Hackett said Thai prices could rise to $500 or $600 a tonne, perhaps by spring.
It is important to keep an eye out on rice prices because rice is one of the three main cereal crops, along with wheat and corn. Those three crops make up two-thirds of what the world eats, according to the FAO. How much of an impact rising rice prices will have on consumers is unknown. Luckily for eaters, no one is forecasting a return to the sharply higher price seen in 2007 and 2008 when riots broke out over record high rice prices. Back then, supplies of all staple food crops such as rice, wheat and corn were low and prices high, so there was no alternative for buyers.
But we’re not likely to see riots this time around, as countries like the Philippines are seeking to add to their wares. This year, Nelson said, although rice supplies are tight, wheat supplies are at record levels and prices are low, so he said people most affected by high prices could gravitate to buying wheat-based foods. Still, high rice prices can affect the poorest of the poor.
The global economic situation now is also different than 2007-08, Hackett said.
“We’re not necessarily going to see that kind of a wild, unbridled spike … because we’re dealing with a deflationary commodity environment. But having said that, higher prices will be seen in medium term,” he said.
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