Best of our wild blogs: 14 Sep 08

Ready for action!
Gearing up for Pandan cleanup (loads of trash and snakes) and update on Kranji site and Kallang Basin site and more briefings on the News from the International Coastal Cleanup blog

Blog about our natural heritage
for a blogging contest, more details on the Singapore's Heritage, Museums & Nostalgia Blog. See comments for links to eligible museums which includes our only natural history museum, the Raffles Museum of Biodiversity Research. Although there is this comment about the contest Do not make me uglify my blog on Tym Blogs Too!

Nesting of the Olive-winged Bulbul
from Bird Ecology Study Group blog

Book Review - The Book of Indian Butterflies by Isaac Kehimkar
on the Butterflies of Singapore blog

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Almost 2 billion people at risk from dengue in Asia

Today Online 24 Sep 08;

MANILA — Nearly two billion people in the Asia-Pacific region will be at risk from dengue fever unless governments do more to fight the disease, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said yesterday.

According to the United Nations agency, of the 2.5 billion people at risk globally, some 1.8 billion live in the Western Pacific.

Ninety-eight per cent of all dengue cases — and 99 per cent of all dengue deaths — in the region between 2001 and 2004 occured in Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, French Polynesia, Fiji, New Caledonia and China.

WHO intends to ask the 37 countries and territories that make up its Western Pacific section to endorse a regional strategy for dealing with the mosquito-borne virus, which it deems among 40 emerging diseases of global importance.

A dengue pandemic swept across the region between 1991 and 2004, peaking at 350,000 cases in 1998, WHO said.

It said: “Many Asia-Pacific countries lack adequate resources and have limited response capacities” against the virus.

The WHO said in discussion papers at a regional committee meeting in Manila that dengue “has greatly expanded over the last three decades” owing to changes in weather patterns that expanded the habitat of the Aedes aegypti mosquito which carries the virus.

Other key factors were migration, demographic changes, and rapid growth in urban areas. AFP

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No mall in Singapore 'sleepy village', please

Wong Sook-yee (Ms), Straits Times Forum 14 Sep 08;

I read with great consternation last Sunday's article, 'Where 5,000 expats call home', which reported that the Serangoon Gardens Village complex would be torn down to 'make way for a big mall'.

We have malls everywhere, surely we do not need one in Serangoon Gardens?

I live in the estate and I love its 'sleepy village' atmosphere. It was even better before, when we knew the owners of the provision shops and would drop by just to chat without buying anything.

It is still not too bad now, even though 'modernity' has arrived in the form of Prima Deli, Bengawan Solo, and Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, among others.

But we have to stop somewhere. The enclave is steadily losing its cosiness and character, and I say, enough is enough.

There are malls aplenty in the nearby AMK Hub, Heartland Mall and Hougang Point.

We do not need one right in the heart of Serangoon Gardens.

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What next for Costa Rica's frogs?

BBC News 13 Sep 08;

BBC News has been following a team from Manchester University and Chester Zoo as they trek deep into Costa Rica's rainforest to work on conservation programmes for critically endangered amphibians.

Here the biologists explain why they believe that safeguarding the future of amphibians is key.

Of course, rediscovering the golden toad was always going to be a remote possibility - it has been gone so long

But just to visit the place where they were last seen - the unique elfin forests of Monteverde where they used to appear like ghosts from nowhere at the first sign of rain, reproduce hurriedly in an explosion of colour, and then disappear as quickly as they had arrived - well, it is little short of a religious experience for a frog biologist.

So we followed the trail, we saw the moss and lichen encrusted network of roots that Bufo periglenes used to call home - but did not see a thing.

But that was not the main reason why we were here.

Costa Rica, like many parts of the world, has suffered devastating losses of amphibian species in recent decades.

Understanding why is crucial both to preventing, or at least stemming, similar losses elsewhere and perhaps to helping the recovery process right here.

Rediscoveries

Over the last few years, a number of "extinct" species have reappeared in one or two remote locations, their rediscovery largely a result of the efforts of a handful of dedicated frog enthusiasts.

Take Isthmohyla rivularis , for example.

Until a single male was spotted last year, this species was thought to have been extinct. This week, another male has been seen, but far more importantly a female, full of eggs.

This means the species is still out there with the capacity to reproduce, though extensive surveys along the streams they inhabit suggest that they are still desperately rare.

Now we know they are here, the next challenge is to learn all we can about them so we are better able to conserve them.

Another sensational rediscovery in the recent past was the aptly named green-eyed frog ( Lithobates vibicaria ).

This spectacular frog was once widespread in the high-altitude forests of the Monteverde region and having also been thought extinct, it is now known to be hanging on in just one or two isolated and inaccessible areas.

Though part of the strategy for assuring this species' continued existence has been to establish a conservation breeding programme at the University of Manchester and Chester Zoo, the focus is now upon monitoring these precious wild sites for any sign of change - good or bad - and surveying other similar areas for more frogs.

Studying the populations of both of these rare frogs, and others like them, is critical if we hope to conserve them in the long term.

In doing this, collaboration is key.

Just as important as finding the frogs has been meeting with our Costa Rican colleagues from the Monteverde Rainforest League and the Tropical Science Center.

These two organisations are jointly responsible for establishing the forest reserves and for their continuing protection.

Both are passionate about biodiversity, and are eager to develop a collaborative amphibian conservation and research strategy.

So, we leave Costa Rica elated by our finds and excited by the prospects for the future of this country's amphibians.

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Curbing Coal Emissions Alone Might Avert Climate Danger, Say Researchers

ScienceDaily 13 Sep 08;

An ongoing rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels might be kept below harmful levels if emissions from coal are phased out within the next few decades, say researchers. They say that less plentiful oil and gas should be used sparingly as well, but that far greater supplies of coal mean that it must be the main target of reductions.

The burning of fossil fuels accounts for about 80 percent of the rise of atmospheric CO2 since the pre-industrial era, to its current level of 385 parts per million. However, while there are huge amounts of coal left, predictions about when and how oil and gas production might start running out have proved controversial, and this has made it difficult to anticipate future emissions.

To better understand how the emissions might change in the future, climatologist Pushker Kharecha and director James Hansen of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies—a member of Columbia University's Earth Institute--considered a wide range of scenarios.

"This is the first paper that explicitly melds the two vital issues of global peak oil production and human-induced climate change," Kharecha said. "We found that because coal is much more plentiful than oil or gas, reducing coal emissions is absolutely essential to avoid dangerous climate change."

CO2, which accounts for about half of the human-caused greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, concerns scientists because it can remain for centuries. Hansen's previous research suggests that a dangerous level of global warming may occur if CO2 exceeds a concentration of about 450 parts per million. That is a 61 percent increase from the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million, but only 17 percent more than the current level. Hansen says the danger level would bring a rise of about 1.8°F above the 2000 global temperature. At or beyond this point, disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet and Arctic sea ice could reach tipping points, and set in motion feedback mechanisms that would lead to further, accelerated melting.
Satellite imagery shows where carbon dioxide is being emitted or absorbed, measured here in 2003. Reds show sources; blues, absorption. (Credit: NASA)

To better understand the possible trajectory of future CO2, Kharecha and Hansen devised five emissions scenarios spanning the years 1850 to 2100. Each reflects a different estimate for the global production peak of fossil fuels, the timing of which depends on reserve size, recoverability and available technology. "Even if we assume high-end estimates and unconstrained emissions from conventional oil and gas, we find that these fuels alone are not abundant enough to take carbon dioxide above 450 parts per million," Kharecha said.

The first scenario estimates CO2 levels if emissions from fossil fuels follow "business as usual," growing 2 percent annually until half of each reservoir has been recovered. After this, emissions begin to decline by 2 percent annually. In the second scenario, emissions from coal are reduced, first by developed countries starting in 2013, and then by developing countries a decade later, leading to a global phaseout of emissions by 2050. The phaseout could come either from reducing coal consumption or by capturing and trapping CO2 from coal burning before it reaches the air.

The remaining three scenarios include the phaseout of coal, but consider different scenarios for oil use and supply. One case considers a delay in the oil peak by about 21 years to 2037. Another considers fewer-than-expected additions to currently proven reserves, or taxes on emissions that makes fuels too expensive to extract. The final scenario looks at emissions from oil fields that peak at different times, extending the peak into a plateau that lasts from 2020-2040.

The team used a mathematical model to convert CO2 emissions from each scenario into estimates of future concentrations in the atmosphere. The "business as usual" scenario resulted in CO2 that would exceed 450 parts per million from by 2035, and climb to more than double the pre-industrial level. Even when low-end estimates of reserves were assumed, the threshold was exceeded from about 2050 onwards. However, the other four scenarios resulted in CO2 levels that peaked in various years, but all fell below the prescribed cap of 450 parts per million by about 2080 at the latest. Levels in two of the scenarios always stayed below the threshold.

The researchers say that the results clearly imply that emissions from coal should be reduced. This would apply also, they say, to "unconventional" fuels not yet in mainstream use, such as methane hydrates and tar sands. These also contain far more fossil carbon than conventional oil and gas, and thus could potentially be major contributors to emissions.

"We're illustrating the types of action needed to get to target carbon dioxide levels," Kharecha said. "The most important mitigation strategy we recommend—a phase-out of carbon dioxide emissions from coal within the next few decades—is feasible using current or near-term technologies."

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Phase out coal and burn trees instead, urges leading scientist

Current targets on emissions are 'a recipe for global disaster, not salvation'
Geoffrey Lean, The Telegraph 14 Sep 08;

Humanity must urgently embark on a massive programme to power civilisation from wood to stave off catastrophic climate change, one of the world's top scientists has told The Independent on Sunday.

Twenty years ago, Professor James Hansen was the first leading scientist to announce that global warming was taking place. Now he has issued a warning that a back-to-the-future return to one of the oldest fuels is imperative because the world has exceeded the danger level for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Growing trees, which absorb the gas from the air as they grow, burning them instead of fossil fuels to generate electricity, and capturing and storing the carbon produced in the process is needed to get the greenhouse effect down to safe levels, he says.

Professor Hansen's assertion that there is too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will alarm governments and environmentalists, who are concentrating on the already daunting task of limiting its build-up, while allowing it to rise well above present levels. However, his views will command respect because, as director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the past 27 years, he has been one of the few climate scientists ready to risk his reputation by openly stating what many suspect to be true.

In 1988 Professor Hansen put global warming on the political agenda by telling the US Congress that he was "99 per cent certain" that human activities were warming up the planet. It took the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change until last year to catch up, by which time nearly two vital decades had been lost.

In the UK last week, his evidence helped to secure the acquittal of six Greenpeace activists charged with causing criminal damage to the Kingsnorth power station in Kent.

The level of carbon dioxide stands at 385 parts per million (ppm), about 100ppm above what it was at the start of the Industrial Revolution. It is rising by about 2ppm a year. The most ambitious international efforts focus on stabilising it at 450 ppm, though few see this as achievable.

But Professor Hansen says this goal "is a recipe for global disaster, not salvation" and that present levels have already "brought us to the precipice of a planetary tipping point". He adds: "If we go over the edge we will transition to an environment far outside the range that has been experienced by humanity, and there will be no return within any foreseeable future generation."

He is convinced that 350 ppm is the absolute maximum that will avoid the loss of the polar ice sheets and other disasters. He says that all coal power stations must be phased out by 2030, unless they are equipped with special "carbon capture and storage" equipment that stops the gas escaping into the atmosphere. If that was done, the level could be stabilised at 400 ppm. After that, a vigorous programme of planting trees to suck up carbon dioxide – coupled with the use of carbon capture equipment when the trees are burnt, and improvements in agricultural practices – could get levels down to 350 ppm "within a century".

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