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Butterfly Watch - Seasonality Study
Butterflies of Singapore
Hidden Treasures of the LKC Natural History Museum – Part 6 Bonus: The Visionary Digital Lab
BES Drongos
Derek Wong Straits Times 5 Oct 18;
SINGAPORE - Yishun residents are getting their feathers ruffled by the appearance of many barn swallows there in the evenings, in what appears to be a seasonal affair.
The birds are causing a mess - and a stink - with their waste, residents told Chinese newspaper Shin Min Daily News.
"Their numbers are simply too many. We worry that they will enter our homes and defecate. I usually don't even open my windows until the morning - and each time I open them, I can smell their faeces," said Ms Huang Xiuling, a 38-year-old housewife, to Shin Min in the Sept 30 report. She lives at Block 170 Yishun Avenue 7.
The birds appear to roost mostly in Yishun Avenue 7 and Yishun Street 11, according to the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority (AVA).
However, the authority also told The Straits Times that there has been only one case of barn swallow-related feedback for the two areas this year up to Sept 30. There were 33 cases in 2016 and 11 in 2017.
It added that the barn swallows are migratory birds that are known to be in Singapore from late July to early April, and that the roosting population of the birds can reach up to 7,300 in Yishun during the season.
"AVA has been liaising with the town council to step up cleaning work at the affected blocks, and has also provided it with information on possible measures, such as bird proofing, that can be taken to prevent swallows from roosting," said an AVA spokesman.
A Nee Soon Town Council spokesman said the seasonal roosting may have already been happening for more than a decade.
She added that the town council carries out cleaning regularly to remove the bird droppings.
Regular tree pruning is an example of a measure the town council has taken to manage the bird population, she added.
"We are looking at long-term solutions such as reducing food sources which lead to breeding, through an upcoming public education campaign," she said.
Nee Soon GRC MP Louis Ng will also introduce a Bill in Parliament to amend the Wild Animals and Birds Act to address such issues at the national level, the spokesman said. One of the amendments will help tackle the issue of the feeding of wild animals. It will be a Private Member’s Bill.
AVA is sharing the ecology and behaviour of the species with residents who give feedback, said the authority's spokesman.
For example, the birds "are insectivores and feed on insects such as midges and mosquitoes", she said.
Straits Times 5 Oct 18;
SINGAPORE - A mock collision and oil spill was staged in Singapore waters near Pulau Semakau in a response exercise on Friday (Oct 5).
More than 250 people from 26 agencies were involved in the exercise led by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) - the lead agency for maritime emergencies.
An "octopus" skimmer system was deployed for the first time in the biennial exercise, which allows oil to be collected more effectively using brushes that run in multiple directions. A conventional oil skimmer collects oil from one direction.
The spill response teams also used equipment such as oil containment booms, and sprayed dispersants from a C-130 aircraft, while a Police Coast Guard patrol craft carried out cordon duty.
Captain M. Segar, assistant chief executive (operations) at MPA, said that as Singapore is one of the world's busiest ports, ensuring it has the means and ability to respond to any contingencies, including oil spills, is important.
"Today's exercise not only allows us to test our inter-agency responses but also to share best practices and test new technologies in combating oil spills," he added.
The teams responded as if a collision between two tanker vessels, one of which sustained damage to its two cargo oil tanks, caused a spillage of about 10,000 metric tonnes of oil.
A skimmer system extracting 'oil' during a simulation exercise in Singapore waters near Pulau Semakau. PHOTO: MARITIME AND PORT AUTHORITY OF SINGAPORE
The scenario also called for an immediate evacuation of an injured crew member on board the damaged tanker vessel by a Singapore Civil Defence Force Marine Fire Vessel.
Concurrently, a table-top exercise was held at MPA's Port Operations Control Centre at PSA Vista near Haw Paw Villa.
Participants discussed operational and policy measures to deal with a major oil spill in Singapore waters.
Friday's exercise marked the end of the 20th Singapore International Bunkering Conference and Exhibition 2018, which began on Wednesday.
'Octopus' takes part in oil spill exercise
Skimmer system deployed for 1st time in biennial drill led by MPA
Lim Min Zhang Straits Times 6 Oct 18;
More than 250 people from 26 agencies took part in a maritime exercise yesterday that included the staging of a mock collision with oil spill in the waters off Pulau Semakau.
The exercise was to share best practices as well as test inter-agency responses and new technologies in combating oil spills, said Captain M. Segar, assistant chief executive (operations) at the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), which led the effort.
An "octopus" skimmer system was deployed for the first time in the biennial exercise.
Unlike a conventional oil skimmer which collects oil from one direction, the "octopus" allows oil to be collected more effectively by using brushes that run in multiple directions.
The spill response teams also used equipment such as oil containment booms and sprayed dispersants from a C-130 aircraft, while a Police Coast Guard patrol craft carried out cordon duty.
As Singapore is one of the world's busiest ports, ensuring it has the means and ability to respond to any contingencies, including oil spills, is important, said Captain Segar.
TESTING NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Today's exercise not only allows us to test our inter-agency responses but also to share best practices and test new technologies in combating oil spills.
CAPTAIN M. SEGAR, MPA's assistant chief executive (operations), on the exercise involving over 250 people from 26 agencies
MPA is Singapore's lead agency in dealing with maritime emergencies.
During yesterday's exercise, the various teams responded as if there was a collision between two tanker vessels. The scenario assumed that two cargo oil tanks on board one of them was damaged and led to a spillage of about 10,000 metric tonnes of oil.
The scenario also required the immediate evacuation of an "injured" crew member on board the damaged tanker, by a Singapore Civil Defence Force Marine Fire Vessel.
Concurrently, a table-top exercise was held at MPA's Port Operations Control Centre at PSA Vista near Haw Paw Villa. Participants discussed operational and policy measures to deal with a major oil spill in Singapore waters.
The exercise marked the end of the 20th Singapore International Bunkering Conference and Exhibition 2018, which began on Wednesday.
LOUISA TANG Today Online 6 Oct 18;
SINGAPORE — The combined impact of deforestation and illegal wildlife trade on tropical biodiversity is severely underestimated, and could lead to the extinction of some South-east Asian bird species by the end of this century, a study has found.
Focusing on 308 forest-dependent bird species in Sundaland — a region that includes Borneo, Sumatra and Java — scientists found that the loss of forest habitat in the area, together with hunting or poaching, resulted in a “much higher population loss” than when accounted for separately.
Of the 308 bird species, 77 are heavily trapped to become pets, food or products, said the scientists from the National University of Singapore (NUS) and University of Sheffield. The birds include the Melodious Bulbul, Javan Leafbird and Silvery Pigeon.
Typically, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) tracks the different threats to wildlife separately.
Yet, the threats are interconnected and the combined impact could be more severe than what is now estimated, the researchers noted in their paper published in the Nature Communications journal.
Between 2000 and 2015, nearly nine in 10 of the bird species they studied had experienced an average habitat loss of 16 per cent due to deforestation. The 77 commercially valuable species experienced a mean population decline of 37 per cent.
The decline from the combined impact of deforestation and exploitation is estimated to be 23.9 per cent for all 308 species, and 51.9 per cent for the 77 commercially valuable species.
The researchers suggested that a total of 51 bird species should be listed as critically endangered, endangered or vulnerable — nearly double the 27 now listed by IUCN.
They said that 50 to 90 of the species that they examined, such as the Ruby-throated Bulbul and White-crowned Hornbill, might also become extinct by 2100.
The researchers noted that they did not consider other threats such as logging, as the impact of it on many species remains unknown. However, it will “likely cause substantial reductions in some species”.
Lead author William Symes, a recent PhD graduate from NUS, said: “Recent extinctions like the passenger pigeon and the dodo present common traits like the simultaneous combination of habitat loss and active hunting. This fatal combination of ingredients is present for dozens of unique bird species in Sundaland.”
Dr David Edwards from the department of animal and plant sciences at the University of Sheffield, said that without urgent policy intervention to curb deforestation and slow the quantities of birds entering the cage-bird trade, many species are likely to be lost. “Failing to account for these combined threats can lead to a major underestimation of threats in the IUCN Red List assessments.”
Assistant Professor Roman Carrasco, from NUS’ department of biological sciences, added that their technique of assessing combined threats can be applied to other tropical forests outside of South-east Asia facing similar threats.
“Coordinated efforts to curb commercial exploitation and slow deforestation, for instance, can limit the extinction of bird species,” he added.
The Star 6 Oct 18;
KOTA KINABALU: More than 2,000 turtle eggs were seized as marine police intercepted a foreign pump boat trying to sneak into Sandakan.
Marine police Region 4 acting commander Supt Mohd Nasir Othman said the skipper managed to dive into Batu Putih river and escape after a short chase at about 6.10am yesterday.
He said they seized the boat, its engine and over 2,000 turtle eggs stuffed in four bags with a street value of RM4,000.
“We were patrolling the area when they spotted the boat in the open sea. When we tried to flag down the boat for inspection, the skipper sped off triggering a high speed chase before we apprehended it,” he said.
The case will be investigated under the Wildlife Conservation Enactment 1997.
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/10/06/police-crack-bid-to-smuggle-turtle-eggs/#Psz5iIFiAuPHqY4i.99
Philippine boat with turtle eggs worth RM4,000 seized, smuggler escapes
muguntan vanar The Star 5 Oct 18;
KOTA KINABALU: More then 2,000 turtle eggs were seized after marine police patrol intercepted a southern Philippines registered pump boat trying to sneak into Sabah's east coast in Sandakan.
However, the suspect managed to dive into Batu Putih river and escaped after a short chase at around 6.10am, said Sandakan-based Marine Police Region 4 acting commander Supt Mohd Nasir Othman on Friday (Oct 5).
He said the 2,000 turtle eggs were found inside four bags and had a street value of RM4,000, which was more than double the value of the pump boat and its engine of RM1,800.
Supt Mohd Nasir said a four-men marine police patrol had spotted the boat heading from open sea into the Batu Putih river in Sandakan, and when they tried to approach the boat, the skipper sped off upriver, refusing to stop.
He said police suspected the turtle eggs were being smuggled into Sandakan for the clandestine trade in the markets.
Police have handed over the case to the Sabah Wildlife Department to investigate under the Wildlife Conservation Enactment 1997.
Turtles are protected species and the sale of its eggs is illegal.
Hazsyah Abdul Rahman New Straits Times 6 Oct 18;
LAHAD DATU: A herd of 40 elephants stormed into an oil palm plantation at Ulu Segamat here, with one of them injured believed to be due to a snare trap.
Sabah wildlife director Augustine Tuuga said the department was alerted of the presence of the elephants and one of them was believed injured based on the rope trap that was seen on its front leg.
“A veterinary team has been deployed to the location to capture the elephant so that treatment can be administered. However, we have yet to ascertain the actual location where the elephant was hit by the snare trap,” he said when contacted, today.
He said the wildlife personnel were carrying out monitoring with the help of plantation workers, adding the group was monitoring the movement of the 40 elephants.
According to Tuuga, the elephants entered the plantation during the day but exited to the neighbouring Mesuli forest reserve during the night.
“So far some crops have been damaged and our personnel will will try to prevent more damage (of crops),” he said.
Tuuga also noted in order to avoid human-elephant conflict in the plantation area, the elephants needed to cross Sungai Segama to return to Ulu Segama forest reserve.
Elephants 'playing hide-and-seek' with Sabah wildlife rangers
muguntan vanar The Star 6 Oct 18;
KOTA KINABALU: Sabah wildlife rangers are having trouble locating 40 Borneo Pygmy Elephants which encroached into a plantation in Lahad Datu near here, in their efforts to lead the herd back into the jungle.
The herd of elephants, one of which was injured by a snare trap, have split up and are literally playing and "hide and seek" as rangers together with plantation workers try to stop the animals from destroying newly-planted and young oil palm trees in the plantation.
"Elephants enter the plantation at daytime and move into the nearby Masuli Forest Reserve at night.
"The elephants need to be driven across the Segama river to return to the Ulu Segama Forest Reserve," Sabah Wildlife Department director Augustine Tuuga said on Saturday (Oct 6).
"Elephant control is still being done by Lahad Datu. The elephants have caused damage to newly-planted palms as well as old ones. The amount of damage has not been assessed yet.
"It is a difficult job since the elephants have split into several groups," he said.
Wildlife rangers have been in the area since Thursday after receiving a report from the plantation's management about the elephant intrusion.
Tuuga said that one of the elephants has a snare wound on its left front leg.
"We are sending another team with a veterinary officer to catch the animal and treat the wound," he said.
However, he said that the elephant was ensnared somewhere else and believes that it came from an area nearby where many snare traps have been found.
Jumbo effort for rangers herding elephants back into the Sabah wild
The Star 6 Oct 18;
KOTA KINABALU: Efforts are underway to drive back a herd of about 40 Borneo pygmy elephants into a forest reserve after they encroached into a plantation in Sabah’s east coast Ulu Segama area.
A six-member team of rangers have moved them back into the forests to ensure the jumbos were not hurt and also to minimise any damage to the plantation.
State Wildlife Department director Augustine Tuuga said their officers were monitoring the operation closely and that all efforts were being made to ensure the elephants were unharmed.
On Thursday, the elephants were spotted at the Transkina Plantation while foraging for food.
Deputy Chief Minister Christina Liew said forest rangers were following the trail to prevent a the elephants from getting shot.
Liew said she was being updated on the development from time to time.
“The rangers are doing their best to protect these elephants,” Liew, who is also the state Tourism, Culture and Environment Minister.
Some 25 Borneo pygmy elephants have died this year alone for various causes, including human-elephant conflict and poaching.
The elephants, numbering around 1,500 to 2,000 in the Sabah’s wild, are a protected species.
Pygmy elephant herd driven back into forest after straying into plantation
muguntan vanar The Star 5 Oct 18;
KOTA KINABALU: Efforts are underway to drive back a herd of about 40 Borneo pygmy elephants into a forest reserve after they encroached into a plantation in Sabah's east coast area of Ulu Segama in Lahad Datu.
A six-member team of rangers has moved them back into the forests to ensure the elephants are not hurt, as well as to minimise damages to the plantations they trespassed into on Thursday (Oct 4).
State Wildlife Department director Augustine Tuuga is monitoring the operations to make sure that the elephants are unharmed and returned to the Ulu Segama forest area.
The elephants are believed to have entered the Transkina Plantation early Thursday while foraging for food, with the authorities alerted on the matter shortly afterwards.
Liew said she was being regularly updated on the elephant encroachment.
"The rangers under Wildlife are trying their best to protect these elephants," she added.
This year alone, some 25 Borneo pygmy elephants have died due to various causes, including human-elephant conflict and poaching.
Pygmy elephants number around 1,500 to 2,000 in the Sabah and are totally protected.
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/10/05/pygmy-elephant-herd-driven-back-into-forest-after-straying-into-plantation/#WeBx9Spl06dKgQIB.99
Antara 5 Oct 18;
Mount Gamalama in Ternate, North Maluku Province, erupted on Thursday at 11:52 a.m. local time. ANTARA PHOTO/Abdul Fatah/wsj/hp/15.
Tertane, N Maluku (ANTARA News) - Mount Gamalama located on Ternate Island, North Maluku Province, erupted on Thursday at 11:52 a.m. local time.
The volcano spewed a column of ash at a height of up to 250 meters from the mountain`s top, Darno Lamane, head of the Mount Gamalama observation post, stated here, Thursday.
Wind drifted volcanic ash of the mountain toward northwest, and the ash fell on West Ternate Sub-district.
Despite the eruption, the volcano`s emergency status remains at second level. Some 1.5-kilometer radius from the crater is closed to the public, including climbers.
Lamane also appealed to people living along sides of the rivers whose upstream are close to the volcano area to remain vigilant of potential threats in the form of lava flows during the current rainy season.
Reporting by Abdul Fatah
Editing by Fardah
Editor: Otniel Tamindael
Three villages affected by mt Gamalama`s volcanic ash
Abdul Fatah Antara 5 Oct 18;
Mount Gamalama in Ternate, North Maluku erupted on Thursday. ANTARA FOTO/Abdul Fatah/wsj/hp/15.
Tertane, N Maluku (ANTARA News) - Three urban villages in West Ternate Sub-district, North Maluku Province, were affected by volcanic ash of Mount Gamalama that erupted on Thursday.
All urban village chiefs in West Ternate will be called to a meeting to discuss precautionary measures to be taken in the face of lava spewed from the volcano during the rainy season, Hayim Yusuf, head of the Ternate disaster mitigation office, stated here, Friday.
The authorities have distributed face masks to local inhabitants in areas affected by volcanic ash. Takemo, Loto, and Togafo are among the worst affected by the ash.
Mount Gamalama located on Ternate Island, North Maluku Province, erupted on Thursday at 11:52 a.m. local time.
The volcano spewed a column of ash at a height of up to 250 meters from the mountain`s top, Darno Lamane, head of the Mount Gamalama observation post, stated here, Thursday.
Wind drifted volcanic ash of the mountain toward northwest, and the ash fell on West Ternate Sub-district.
Despite the eruption, the volcano`s emergency status remains at second level. Some 1.5-kilometer radius from the crater is closed to the public, including climbers.
Lamane also appealed to people living along sides of the rivers whose upstream are close to the volcano area to remain vigilant of potential threats in the form of lava flows during the current rainy season.
Reporting by Abdul Fatah
Editing by Fardah
Editor: Bustanuddin
AFP Yahoo News 5 Oct 18;
Hanoi (AFP) - Vietnam has seized eight tonnes of pangolin scales and elephant ivory shipped from Nigeria, police said Friday, the second such haul in a week in a country which both consumes and trafficks huge volumes of endangered African wildlife.
The ivory and pangolin trade is banned by Vietnam, but sales continue to flourish on the black market due to demand domestically and from neighbouring China, which feeds the global $20 billion industry.
The eight-tonne shipment was discovered Thursday at a port in the coastal city of Danang, according to the Hai Quan online newspaper, a state-run mouthpiece for Vietnam's customs office, making it "the country's biggest ever bust over the past several years."
"The batch originated from Nigeria," it said, adding that officials took several hours to tally up the ivory tusks and pangolin scales, which were listed as "scrap metal" on the container's shipping bill.
Customs officials refused to comment when reached by AFP.
Last Friday, authorities in Hanoi found almost 1,000 kilograms of pangolin scales and elephant ivory on a commercial flight arriving from Nigeria.
Information in the communist state is tightly controlled by the government, which is fighting an uphill battle against the lucrative ivory and pangolin trade.
The timid and noctural pangolin, which rolls into a ball when threatened -- making them defenseless against poachers -- is one of the most heavily trafficked mammals.
It is sought after for its meat and the unproven medicinal properties of their scales.
While the sale of ivory is also officially outlawed in Vietnam since 1992, the trade persists in the open with shops selling tusks that shopkeepers claim pre-date the ban.
Last year 2.7 tonnes of tusks were found inside crates on the back of a truck in central Thanh Hoa province while a similar 3.5 tons were discovered in a sea port in Ho Chi Minh City in 2016.
Beijing’s crackdown on foreign waste prompts redirection of US recycling to developing countries in south-east Asia
Karen McVeigh The Guardian 5 Oct 18;
Exports of plastic waste from the US to developing countries have surged following China’s crackdown on foreign waste imports, new research has shown.
Nearly half of plastic waste exported from the US for recycling in the first six months of 2018 was shipped to Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, according to analysis of US census bureau data by Unearthed, Greenpeace’s investigative arm. The previous year, the US sent more than 70% to China and Hong Kong.
This year’s ban on foreign waste imports by China, previously the world’s biggest importer of plastic waste for recycling, has left western countries scrambling to offload its extra plastic waste. The US, along with Britain, Germany, Japan and Mexico, is among the biggest exporters of scrap plastic to China.
Campaigners said the analysis, which Unearthed shared with the Guardian, shows the US is exploiting developing countries where there is no regulatory framework to ensure plastic waste is processed in an environmentally friendly way.
“Instead of taking responsibility for their own waste, US companies are exploiting developing countries that lack the regulation to protect themselves,” said John Hocevar, Oceans campaign director for Greenpeace USA.
The waste, some of which consists of household recycling produced in the US, includes single-use plastic bottles, plastic bags and food wrappings, said Hocevar. It can, however, contain toxic materials.
“It’s a problem for the US and other developed countries to produce, often, toxic material which they can’t or won’t take care of themselves.”
Hocevar said that China’s decision to no longer accept waste has revealed the scale of the global plastic waste crisis: “Which is that we are producing an enormous amount of plastic material that we don’t know how to handle.
“The average person when they put a piece of plastic in a [recycling] bin, they assume it is being recycled, not being shipped to China or now to south-east Asia, where it will possibly be incinerated or landfilled.”
The data, obtained by Unearthed through the US census bureau, shows that in the first half of 2018, US exports of plastic waste dropped by a third compared with last year, from 949,789 metric tonnes to 666,780. Exports to China dropped by 92%, while those to Hong Kong dropped by 77%.
At the same time, US exports of plastic waste to Thailand shot up by almost 2,000% this year, to 91,505 metric tonnes. US exports of plastic waste to Malaysia rose by 273%, to 157,299 metric tonnes, while those to Vietnam rose by 46%, to 71,220 tonnes. Exports to Turkey and South Korea also rose significantly in the same period.
Reports suggest countries in south-east Asia are struggling to process and manage the tide of plastic waste waiting to be processed following the China ban.
“As the imports increased, we are seeing these countries starting to react,” said Hocevar. “Ultimately, we need to reduce this waste at source.”
In Thailand, where in June the death of a pilot whale with 80 plastic bags in its stomach highlighted the harmful effects of plastic in waterways, local media report that Thai government officials are considering a ban on all waste imports, following irregularities found in recycling plants. In May, Vietnam temporarily banned plastic waste imports after two of its ports became “overwhelmed” with scrap imports following China’s ban.
Two months later, Malaysia revoked permits for some plastic imports after factories involved in recycling in Banting, south-west of Kuala Lumpur, were forced to close amid residents’ complaints of air and water pollution.
Daniel Hoornweg, an associate professor in the faculty of energy systems and nuclear science at the University of Ontario technology institute, said of the rise in US exports to south-east Asia: “It does come across as opportunistic. My guess is over time, those countries will crack down on imports and processing waste.
“Canadians, Americans and Europeans need to realise it is an issue that is bigger than saying no to a plastic bag at the checkout. This requires a fundamental overhaul of our economy.”
“What is interesting is that the stuff that the US is sending as recycled plastic ends up being sent back to the US and sold in plastic toys in supermarkets.”
Adina Renee Adler, senior director of international affairs at the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, a trade body, said that the US plastic waste industry is “not dumping waste on south-east Asia” because there is a legitimate market for the material.
“What we say is recyclable material or scrap waste is bought, not sold,” she said. The temporary bans and other problems in these countries, she said, were due to problems with unscrupulous companies moving from China and working illegally, without proper controls.
“The response from the government was, our ports are being overwhelmed. But we hope that these bans are temporary, because there is legitimate trade.”
US and Canadian markets for processing recycled plastic are increasing, Adler added.
Two forthcoming major climate talks offer governments an opportunity to respond to this year’s extreme weather with decisive action
Fiona Harvey The Guardian 5 Oct 18;
The warning signals of climate change that have hit people around the world in the last few months must be heeded by national governments at key meetings later this year, political leaders and policy experts are urging, as the disruption from record-breaking weather continues in many regions.
Extreme weather events have struck around the world – from the drought and record temperatures in northern Europe, to forest fires in the US, to heatwaves and drought in China, to an unusually strong monsoon that has devastated large areas of southern India.
As the northern hemisphere summer closes, polar observations have just established that the Arctic sea ice narrowly missed a record low this year. The sea ice extent was tied for the sixth lowest on record with 2008 and 2010. Sea currents and wind conditions can have large effects on sea ice extent from year to year, but the trend is starkly evident.
“Put simply, in the last 10 years the Arctic is melting faster than it ever has previously since records began,” said Julienne Stroeve, professor at University College London. “We have lost over half of the summer sea ice coverage since the late 1970’s and it is realistic to expect an ice-free Arctic sea in summer in the next few decades.”
Of particular concern is the decline in thick ice which forms over several years. “The older ice has been replaced by more and more first-year ice, which is easier to melt out each summer,” she explained.
Not all of the effects of this year’s extraordinary weather, which has also seen the UK’s joint hottest summer on record, can be traced directly to climate change. However, scientists are clear that the background of a warming planet has made extremes of temperature, and accompanying droughts and floods, more likely.
This week, scientists are gathering in South Korea to draw together the last five years of advances in climate science to answer key questions for policymakers. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) celebrates its 30th birthday this year with what is likely to be a landmark report to be released on Monday 8 October. What is expected to emerge will be the strongest warning yet that these unusual occurrences will add up to a pattern that can only be overcome with drastic action.
Thousands of the world’s leading climate experts collaborate on the periodic reports, released roughly every half-decade. They have grown clearer over the years in the certainty of their evidence that climate change is occurring as a result of human actions, and firmer in their warnings of the disruptive consequences.
This time, the scientists will attempt to answer whether and how the world can meet the “aspiration” set in the Paris agreement of 2015 to hold warming to no more than 1.5C, beyond which many low-lying states and islands are likely to face dangerous sea level rises.
When the scientists deliver their verdict, the onus will pass to politicians to translate their advice into concrete action. Already in recent weeks, global initiatives have begun aimed at doing so: the Global Climate Action Summit in San Francisco last month spurred protests, and dozens of local governments and multinational companies to make pledges; the second One Planet Summit saw advances in climate finance; while at the UN General Assembly, secretary general António Guterres urged world leaders to step up, calling climate change “the defining issue of our time”.
Evidence showing that tackling climate change can be an economic boost rather than a brake has been growing. The recently published New Climate Economy report says more than 65m new low-carbon jobs could be created in just over a decade, and that 700,000 premature deaths from air pollution could be avoided every year by government action on climate change. A further $2.8tn could be added to government revenues by 2030 by reforming perverse incentives to burn fossil fuels.
Nicholas Stern, co-chair of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, which produced the study, said: “Current economic models fail to capture both the powerful dynamics and very attractive qualities of new technologies and structures [that reduce carbon]. Thus we know that we are grossly underestimating the benefits of this new growth story. Further, it becomes ever clearer that the risks of the damage from climate change are immense, and tipping points and irreversibilities getting ever closer.”
The existence of tipping points – thresholds of temperature beyond which certain natural processes become irreversible, such as the melting of permafrost, which may release the greenhouse gas methane and create runaway warming effects – is a key concern of many climate scientists. The faster emissions rise, the sooner we may unwittingly pass some of these key points.
For all these reasons, the IPCC’s special report comes at a crucial point. Scientists and economists have warned that if the world cannot shift course within the next few years, the consequences will be dire, as new infrastructure built now – in energy generation, transport and the built environment – will be made either to low-emissions standards or in the high-emissions habits of the past. As the IPCC’s next comprehensive assessment of climate science will not be available until 2021, this year’s report will be vital in shaping policy.
Ted Chaiban, director of programmes at Unicef, urged governments to seize the opportunities for action offered by this year’s series of political meetings offers for action. “Over the past few months, we have seen a stark vision of the world we are creating for future generations,” he said. “As more extreme weather events increase the number of emergencies and humanitarian crises, it is children who will pay the highest price,” he said.
“It is vital that governments and the international community take concrete steps. The worst impacts of climate change are not inevitable, but the time for action is now.”
After the IPCC publication, the world will face a key test of faith in the 2015 Paris agreement, the only global pact stipulating action on temperature rises. This December in Poland, the UN’s climate change arm will hold a two-week meeting aimed at turning the political resolve reached in Paris three years ago into a set of rules for countries to follow on reducing emissions.
The political situation is more fraught than it was in the runup to Paris. The US is pulling out of the landmark climate agreement and is likely to play little part in the talks. Australia’s government is also in turmoil over climate actions. Now the challenger for Brazil’s presidency, Jair Bolsonaro, is threatening to withdraw its participation – a potential blow to the Paris consensus, as Brazil was a linchpin among rapidly developing nations.
All eyes will be on China, which has shown remarkable progress on renewable energy and emissions reduction, and India, where climate champions have found common cause with opponents of increasingly damaging air pollution. Patricia Espinsoa, the UN’s top climate official, warned that only “uneven progress” had been made so far on the 300-page rulebook for implementing the Paris targets, leaving the rest of the work for December.
While the dangerous weather of the first half of 2018 has raised concerns worldwide that we are seeing climate change in action, many leading experts told the Guardian they were optimistic that political and business leaders this year would help set the world on a different course to avoid the worse predictions of untrammelled warming.
Achim Steiner, administrator of the UN Development Programme, said the past few years had seen “extraordinary progress” in areas such as renewable energy and the take-up of low-carbon technology: “This is real, not in the future but happening now. We are showing that we can do this, we can bring down emissions, it doesn’t need to be a disaster.”
Adopting low-carbon aims now would set developing countries on a course to a brighter future, added Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former economic minister of Nigeria and a member of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. “Now is the time to do this, before we lock in high-carbon infrastructure,” she said. “Now is the opportunity for real sustainable growth.”
Political leaders will find that global investors back them up in opting for low-carbon policies, predicted Frank Rijsberman of the Global Green Growth Institute. “I see this from investors, from businesses,” he said. “They are ready, and they see low-carbon as the future.”
Felipe Calderón, former president of Mexico, called on political leaders to take note: “We can turn better [economic] growth and a better climate into reality. It is time we decisively legislate, innovate, govern and invest our way to a fairer, safer, more sustainable world.”
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