Best of our wild blogs: 23 Sep 08


Discussion on Sustainable Singapore
lots of great ideas on the Green Drinks Facebook Group

Looking for leopard cats, dead or alive
on The Biodiversity crew @ NUS blog

Coastal Cleanup photos and results
on the News from ICCS blog

Changing face of birding in Singapore
on the Bird Ecology Study Group blog

Big Cleanup and other highlights of the low tide
on the singapore celebrates our reefs blog

New Articles on Nature in Singapore
on the Raffles Museum News blog

Mystery sea cucumber identified
on the wild shores of singapore blog


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Lucky Australian reef avoids ocean warming

Sue Emmett, ScienceNetwork WA 23 Sep 08;

A quirk of nature may protect Ningaloo Reef corals from excessive bleaching as climate change increases sea temperatures this century.

University of Western Australia School of Environmental Systems Engineeering Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi says winds blowing parallel to the Ningaloo Reef coastline in summer produce upwelling of cold water from the ocean depths to the surface.

The regular flushing of this colder water across the entire reef system produces an immediate reduction in water temperature of between one and three degress celsius, ensuring the reef is kept cooler and protected from coral bleaching.

“Most coral reef systems around the world suffer from warm water bleaching, but it has never been recorded on Ningaloo Reef coral which is strongly influenced by the Leeuwin Current,” says Professor Pattiaratchi.

“At Ningaloo, currents across the reef system are correlated to offshore wave height and push water across the reef into the lagoons. This water exits through channels between the reefs back into the open sea.

“The circulation is dominantly wave-driven and light winds produce smaller waves and less flow, so balance is essential.

“Water flushes quickly into and out of the reef on the tide every five to eight hours with wind and waves moving comparatively fast due to the significant lagoon setup.

“Although this movement is modulated with the tide, the tide is not driving the current, but simply increasing the water depth above the reef so there is more water transported inshore. It is not a direct movement by the current.”

Professor Pattiaratchi, from the School of Environmental Systems Engineeering, has been studying how the currents are generated across Ningaloo Reef, how the system is flushed out and what processes are contributing to that system.

He told a group of more than 200 marine scientists at a recent Western Australian Marine Science Institution symposium that the lack of coral bleaching had surprised researchers, who expected to see some coral damage.

“We examined wind records over the past six or seven years and saw that the synoptic southern high pressure system consistently produced strong south westerly winds that blow parallel to the coastline in the Ningaloo region,” he said.

According to Prof Pattiaratchi, in 2006 the wind weakened over a few days and warm water was entrained onto the reef system. However, once the wind picked up strength again, it was only a few days before the wave height also increased and water temperatures dropped.

“For coral bleaching to occur it must be exposed to warm water for at least two to four weeks,” he said.

“Fortunately the wind system is such that the southerly winds weaken for only short periods, perhaps for only one or two weeks, so we will only see coral bleaching at Ningaloo Reef if there is a change in the dominant wind directions.”


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Natuna fishermen work to preserve coral reef

Matheos Viktor Messakh, The Jakarta Post 23 Sep 08;

Eight years ago, fisherman Mohamad Delan used potassium cyanide and dynamite bombs for fishing. The 38-year-old knew it was illegal and was caught twice by the marine authorities, but he was never worried.

The man, one of 1,456 fishermen in Sepempang village in Bunguran Timur subdistrict of Natuna regency, Riau Islands, could always bribe his way out of trouble.

"We used to pay the navy base commander Rp 1 million a month. If we caught only one napoleon fish (cheilinus undulatus) a day, we could pay off all of our debts," he told The Jakarta Post during a visit to the island recently.

"In fact, by using potassium or bombs we could catch up to three napoleon fish a day."

But Mohamad has a different perspective these days. He and the other fishermen have joined the Coral Reef Rehabilitation and Management Program (Coremap), since the program was launched in the regency, back in 2004.

By joining the program, he said his income had dropped, from about Rp 4 million (US$430) a month to about Rp 2 million. But he said he did not have any regrets, adding that he cared more about his family and the environment.

"If I'm jailed, who is going to feed my family? A big income doesn't make any difference ... Besides, what will happen to our children if we continue using potassium and bombs?

"In 1999, before Coremap came here, it was even difficult to find a small octopus, but now we can easily find them," he said.

Of the 25,531 households in this outer island regency, 6,440 households or 25 percent depend on fishing.

With the support of Coremap, Sepempang village, together with nine other coastal villages in the regency, has established their own coral reef conservation institution (LPSTK). The other eight villages are Sabang Mawang, Pulau Tiga, Sededap, Tanjung, Sepempang, Kelanga, Pengadah, Kelarik Utara and Cemaga.

The 264,778-kilometer-square regency has 16 districts, 69 villages and six subdistricts.

Each village that has established it own LPSTK decided on its protected sea area through village consensus. Until now, Natuna has a total 142,977 hectares of protected sea.

These protected areas, which have been ratifed by a 2007 bylaw, are divided into core zones where fishing activities are not permitted and buffer zones where people are allowed to fish using environmentally friendly means.

Each LPSTK comprises several groups of people that are responsible for surveillance and monitoring of their protected area. They conduct public awareness activities to preserve the coral reefs.

Like other villages in the regency, Sepempang also introduced a new village regulation in 2006 to prevent the use of destructive fishing techniques such as cyanide and bombs. Punishments for using these methods vary from oral warnings to prosecution.

"We try to educate people in various ways, but we only bring them to court if they refuse to stop bad habits," Coremap's monitoring, controlling and surveillance coordinator for Natuna, Buyung Priyadi said.

But legal efforts and public awareness might not be enough on their own to preserve the coral reefs, which have co-existed with local island communities making their living from the sea for centuries.

Coremap also provides training for local groups in job skills for alternative livelihoods and has provided access to a revolving fund to help local fishermen start small businesses.

Of the 100 groups that have been established since 2005, 20 percent have received training, tools, materials and funding to start their own businesses, community-based management coordinator for Natuna regency, Eldi Saputra said.

A total of Rp. 9.78 billion has been disbursed to these groups within the last two years.

"We will likely approve any proposal on activities that will have a positive direct impact on people's lives," Eldi said.

"Our main goal is to change habits, not to change people's livelihoods. As fishermen, they have the right to make their living from the sea, but using different methods."

The approved, alternative livelihood projects since 2004 include seaweed farming, fish-breeding in keramba (net cages in water) and home industries such as fish crackers krupuk, wickerwork and crude palm oil production.

Keramba and seaweed farming have received the best responses, said Eldi, because the two sectors have established and prospective markets.

"People prefer to raise napoleon fish and groupers (serranidae), especially the tiger species (epinephelus fuscogatus) and the rat species (cromileptis altivelis), because they fetch higher prices on the market," said Eldi.

"Breeders can directly sell them to Hong Kong ships that come to the islands or to brokers."

Coremap's official, Zuriati, said in general there have been significant changes in people's livelihoods since revolving loan funds were disbursed starting in 2004.

"There is no doubt that keramba and seaweed farming has brought better living standards for the people, but for home industries we need to expand into larger markets. And in order to do that, we need better packaging as well as more consistent production," she said.

The Natuna Islands are a 272-island archipelago, located in the Natuna Sea between east and west Malaysia and Kalimantan. The Natuna Sea itself is a section of the South China Sea.

Of the regency territorial area, 97.3 percent or (262.156 square kilometers) is covered by sea, so its coral reefs have a huge potential for natural and economic resources.

Coral reef distribution in Natuna covers around 828,34 square kilometers or about 0.32 percent of the regency's sea area.

The type of coral reefs frequently found in Natuna include Acropora, Fungia, Merulina, Montipora, Pachiseris, Pectinia, Pavona, Pocillopora, Potites and Styllopora.

For the last two years, Natuna has received about Rp. 9.78 billion for the Coremap program.

Coremap executive secretary Jamaluddin Jompa said that according to a Coremap assessment, coral reef degradation in Indonesia was mostly caused by human intervention, so consquently the program emphasizes public awareness and the introduction of alternative livelihoods.

"The core problem is the human aspect, not on the coral reef itself, so it's more strategic to focus on the core of the problem." Jompa told The Post recently.

"As an expert in coral reefs I have to say that man-made rehabilitation is not a solution for coral reef degradation in Indonesia. It's lot easier to change people's bad habits than to spend hundreds of millions of rupiah on man-made rehabilitation programs with little possibility for success," said Jompa.

Meanwhile, Coremap's assistant director, Sadarun, said for long-term preservation, people needed to be able to see direct benefits from coral reef preservation to prevent program failure.

"It's dangerous if programes are only designed to preserve reefs without any benefits for the efforts of those involved," said Sadarun.


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Baru Sadarun: Fighting to preserve coral reefs

Matheos Viktor Messakh, The Jakarta Post 23 Sep 08;

Some might think that growing market demand might worsens coral reef exploitation, but diving instructor Baru Sadarun has his own rationale.

For the 40-year-old man, as long as people realize the economic value of coral reefs, they will be more than happy to help preserve them.

He believes that coral reef conservation had been opposed in many places because the conservation effort was usually separated from people's daily lives and activities.

"There is a growing misconception that conservation is similar only to protection," Sadarun told The Jakarta Post.

"In fact, conservation should also be related to how people use natural resources...any conservation efforts will be opposed if people are only prohibited from the conservation area and cannot gain anything from it."

For Sadarun, coral reefs can be preserved if people in the designated conservation areas are able to use them as a fishing resource or as ecotourism sites, or for coral reef farming and trading (of fish and coral), or for other functions that will not harm the environment.

"It's time to introduce people to sustainable management, so they won't be allergic to conservation, but love it because they will gain far more benefit from doing it."

Sadarun might have learned from his experience on local resistance to coral management.

When he was conducting coral reef registration for the Southeast Sulawesi government in the Padamara islands in 1997, he was attacked by local fishermen with a fish bomb while diving.

"The fishermen might have thought that we wanted to disrupt their source of income...I was just lucky. I was found unconscious by my team, which came after they heard an explosion."

Born to a fisherman's family in Raha, Muna regency in Southeast Sulawesi on July 23, 1968, Sadarun has been an avid observer of coral reefs since he was a young man.

After completing high school in Raha in 1991, Sadarun left his village to study marine technology at Sam Ratulangi University in Manado, where he graduated in 1995.

"I am the son of a fishermen and I wanted to know the science of the coral reef. People in my home village have been making a living from coral for centuries and I wanted to know whether what they had been doing was right or wrong."

After graduating, he dived into the marine world through his work as a coral researcher for the Southeast Sulawesi government and also as a lecturer at Haluoleo University in Kendari.

Provoked by reports of coral reef destruction in the country, he completed his master's degree in marine technology focusing on coral reef transplantation, at the Bogor Institute of Technology in 1998.

"I have read many reports on coral destruction since my undergraduate studies, with many people shouting out loud about destruction, but no-one offering any solutions," said the man who received Man of the Biosphere Award from Unesco in 2001 for his research on coral reef transplantation.

Sadarun's interest in coral research was not an easy path at the start. Many of his colleagues said he was crazy during his early research years and his parents objected to his work.

"My people regarded the sea as teki which means sacred. They argued that we can only make a living from the sea, but are not allowed to play around with it.

"Initially they opposed my work but they became more favorable when they realized that I was actually repairing it and not harming it," said the man who is expecting to defend his doctoral thesis in Bogor Institute of Technology in November.

Sadarun said coral trading was one the prospective sustainable livelihoods for fishermen and people who lived along coastal regions, provided they knew how make a living from the sea, without creating a threat to it.

For Sadarun, who is now a section head for marine ecosystem rehabilitation at the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, many people who opposed coral reef trading, including academicians, activists or even government officials, did not really understand the nature of coral, especially its ability to grow.

"There will be no lost resources if trading is carried out with a replication strategy. Moreover, many people are becoming familiar with transplantation techniques. The problem arises only when we allow exploitation without any efforts towards the replacement of the resources."

Sadarun criticized many scholars who relied too much on James W. Nybakken book on Marine Biology which he said "did not convey enough information about coral reefs in the country."

"Nybakken claims that coral reefs can only grow about one centimeter a year, but in my experiments in several coastal areas such as in Mataram in West Nusa Tenggara, I found out that massive corals grow by between three to seven centimeters a year," said the man who has been diving in Australian, Japanese and Indonesian waters.

To assist his interest on coral reef research he also attempted to reach the highest rank in diving. He holds master dive and diving instructor certificates from the International Association for Diving Schools in Japan, gained in 2004 and 2008 respectively.

The father of four year old Steven Muhammad argued that knowledge about coral reefs in Indonesia is restricted by the lack of diving skills among scientists.

"How come they can be so sure about coral, if they cannot dive or have no interest in under water swimming," said the man who introduced diving as part of local content for marine and fisheries studies at Haluoleo University in 1996.

Although he agreed that coral reef destruction is faster than natural restoration, he believes there are still a huge quantity of coral resources in the country which have not yet been explored.

"On average, most of the sites that have been destroyed are no deeper than 10 meters below sea level. Between 15 and 20 meters depth, we still have a huge amount of coral resources," said the man who has organized several surveys on coral reefs in the country.

He is optimistic that Indonesia -- as one of the six Asian Pacific countries with rich marine diversity and probably the largest coral resources in the world -- should be able to boost its coral conservation through law enforcement and man-made conservation, using techniques such as coral transplantation, with which he has been working.

"As the country with the largest number of coral species and the largest coral coverage, there is no reason why we should oppose coral trading. What we need is regulation."

Long-term donor help for coral reef villages
Jakarta Post 23 Sep 08;

With support from foreign donors, including the Asian Development Bank and World Bank, the central government launched the 15-year Coremap program in 1998, which was designed to run in three phases.

The first phase, from 1998 to 2001, included community-based development and community awareness. During the second phase, from 2001 to 2007, several specific support programs were designed and implemented. Phase three, was orginally planned from 2007 to 2013, to focus on institution building.

However, the program, which was initially run by the Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI) has been handed over to the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries with some revisions. The initiation stage was held between 1998-2003, the decentralization and acceleration stage was planned for 2004-2009. The institutional development stage is now planned from 2010 to 2015.

The program runs in 15 regencies, including Raja Ampat in Papua Barat province, Biak in Irian Jaya, Natuna, Batam and Bintan in Riau, Selayar and Tangkep in South Sulawesi, Buton and Wakatobi in Southeast Sulawesi and Sikka in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).

Based on data from the National Institute of Sciences (LIPI) and Coremap, coral reef distribution in Indonesia covers around 60,000 square kilometers and most of these are in critical condition.

LIPI's Center for Oceanological Research and Development discovered in its latest study that 6.2 percent of the country's coral reefs are in excellent condition, 23.72 percent are classed as normal, while 28.3 percent are damaged and 41.78 percent are severely damaged. -- JP/Matheos Viktor Messakh


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Nice prawns, shame about the chemical cocktail

No longer a luxury item, king prawns have become a staple on our supermarket fish counters - but at what price?

Alex Renton reports from Vietnam where improverished producers have adopted some alarming intensive farming practices

Alex Renton, The Observer 21 Sep 08;

There's no lack of building materials around the prawn ponds of the Mekong Delta. Walls are constructed of the empty plastic sacks of pesticides and prawn feed. It's cheap, but sweaty.

Southern Vietnam is hot and sticky at any time and the humid air inside the Huong family's one-room hut, perched on a prawn-pond dyke, is rank with chemicals: we cough and sneeze when we enter. There's an acrid dust all over the mud floor, which makes you worry for little Huong Thi Mai, who is seven, a patient little girl sitting on the low bed near the door watching her parents work. I glance at her bare shins for signs of the skin infections that are common among prawn-farm workers, but she looks OK.

Mr Huong is proud: 'This is a very modern prawn-farming business,' he says. And, with luck and four months' hard labour, it is going to make him and his family quite rich. After they've paid their debts, the Huongs hope to buy a moped and their first fridge. Thi Mai might go to a new school. 'We can have a better life,' says Mrs Huong.

But until the tiger prawns are ready for harvest, and shipped off to Europe or America, the family must live here, keeping a 24-hour watch beside the sour-smelling pond. They've borrowed £4,000, a huge sum, to invest in prawn larvae, feed and medicines - and they need to keep alert in case anyone steals the growing crustaceans.

Modernity, for Mr Huong, appears to be chiefly measured in chemicals. I count 13 different pots, jars and sacks of these in the hut, and he eagerly talks me through them. He's particularly keen on a compound called 'Super Star' - the Vietnamese print on the label says it 'intensifies the metabolism to help prawns grow fat'. He learnt about this additive on a government-run course at the local fishery training centre. 'We're not allowed to use much - only 10 bottles per crop,' he says.

There are other glossy labels - most of them for products made in Thailand, the centre of the world's prawn farming industry. Mr Huong mixes up a feed in a big white basin while we talk. The basic feed, he says, is soya, broken rice and fish and prawn parts. But in it goes a large dose of 'Amino-Pro'. 'It will help the shrimp taste better,' he says. The label has familiar words from stock- cube packets: aspartic acid, glutamic acid and taurine, which is the key element of the energy drink Red Bull. Then there is Vitamix, 'to make prawns grow faster', Calphorax 'to help the shell thicken and give better colour' and Vin Superclear 'to kill pest, virus and smell'. And on top is a seasoning of antibiotic.

Prawn farming is an ancient activity in tropical countries. Coastal peoples in Indonesia and Vietnam have trapped young marine prawns in brackish ponds for at least 500 years, feeding them up with fish scraps and household waste to eat or sell. The prawns, properly farmed, are sweet and juicy: it's a lucrative business. The larvae can reach marketable size, as long as your hand, in as little as four months. But the trade has changed utterly since black tiger prawns (known as 'shrimp' in most countries) and bamboo prawns became a routine luxury in the rich world in the 1990s. The ancient cottage industry was swiftly industrialised. Around the tropical belt, from Ecuador to Indonesia, coastal farmers punched holes in the sea defences and let salt water into their paddy fields for the gold rush.

As with salmon, coffee and a host of other once rare and expensive foods, the demand from rich countries brought more and more producers into the market. Fifty tropical countries are now exporting large farmed prawn. Tiger or 'king' prawns and their siblings have become a staple of supermarket fish counters. The result - it's so familiar, it is almost a law of economics - has been ever-falling prices, increasing use of chemicals, dropping quality. And, of course, scares. Shipments of prawn from the tropics are regularly refused by governmental testers in Europe and America. The chemicals used in a production system that packs 20 of these wild animals into one square metre of foul, endlessly recycled water have been shown again and again to harm the workers, the environment and possibly the consumers. What's surprising, perhaps, is that we are still in love with them.

And we do eat a lot of them. 'King prawns to overtake burgers as barbecue food,' ran a news story last month. Tropical farmed prawns are now Britain's fifth most popular fish. Sales were up 14 per cent last year - and we now spend £169 million a year on them, four times as much as we spend on frozen burgers. At one supermarket which has seen a 20 per cent increase in sales, a spokesperson told me that tropical prawns are 'so fashionable' because they are 'a light and healthy option'. Enthusiastic endorsement from celebrity chefs has boosted the boom - recently Gordon Ramsay has salivated over king prawn and wonton soup on The F Word and Jamie Oliver told viewers to skewer them with bay leaves and lemon slices for the barbecue. Barbecued prawns with a saffron aioli appeared in The Observer's barbecue guide last month.

Light and healthy? I think about this as we follow Mr Huong through a litter of silicate sacks and empty prawn-feed bags to the pond. It measures 400 square metres, about two tennis courts. It was once the family's ancestral rice paddy, and at this time of year the growing seedlings should be turning the landscape a brilliant yellow-green. But the pond, and all the others nearby, is now a viscous grey, like old washing-up water.

Mr Huong paddles off in a little flat boat, scattering the feed we saw him mix up earlier. A system of paddle wheels, driven by a diesel engine, lies ready to stir up the water and bring oxygen to the shellfish packed beneath. There are 80,000 of them below the surface. Back on the dyke, he dips a flat net into the opaque water, and pulls up a few of the animals to weigh them and inspect them for deformities. They are two months old, about the size of my index finger. The translucent beige creatures wriggle and jump like busy grasshoppers.

The Huongs, like all their neighbours, opened the dykes and turned to prawn farming because of the fantastic profits available. A field that would have once provided enough rice for the family to eat, and a little extra to sell for essentials, has suddenly become an asset with the potential to change their lives. If this crop is successful the Huongs will sell the grown prawns for £8,000 - if prices hold up - after only four months.

This is an enormous amount in a country where many rural people still survive on less than £1 a day. As a result, many of the rice farmers of Tra Vinh have now become chemists, experts in the complex biology of intensively farmed crustaceans. Across the dykes we see men and women in their conical hats dipping test tubes in the water, testing acidity levels, examining prawns in the test nets for the dreaded signals of disease: reddening shells, misshapen bodies, white spots on their legs. They are trained and encouraged by the Vietnamese government, which, through promoting cash crops like this one, has been uniquely successful in Asia at increasing Vietnam's exports and reducing poverty in the country.

But there are calamities that can't be sorted out with science. If anything goes wrong the family will lose all their investment, and they won't have any rice to eat either. If they borrowed the money for the prawn larvae, they'll lose their land, too. Things happen here. This coastline along the South China Sea is prone to typhoons, which will destroy all the farmers' work in a night. The coastal mangrove forests, which once offered some protection to the people of these marginal lands, have been uprooted in many prawn farming areas across the tropics - the bandwagon of the shellfish gold rush has destroyed even these crucial natural barricades to the ocean.

The prawns, packed in the ponds, are terribly prone to illness. The last batch of prawn larvae all died after one month - the Huongs don't know why. White-spot virus almost killed off the industry in Vietnam two years ago. And, having gambled everything on prawns, people will of course do anything to protect their investment. That includes using any chemicals that may seem to help. 'Often we get consignments of antibiotics for human use, which are past the date they can be used by,' a village headman told me. It is well known that use of antibiotics can stimulate growth.

This is a temporary land, on loan from the ocean. It's tidy, almost Dutch, with its network of carefully constructed dykes and endless bridges, the South China Sea a pressing presence behind a row of raggedy firs. The mangrove forests have been replanted, after education work with the local communities, by Oxfam and the Vietnamese authorities. On the main road there's a sign, as big as an advertising billboard. Under a vivid picture of jars and bottles and dead prawns it lists all the chemicals that prawn farmers must not use: 51 of them. They include many human antibiotics, penicillins, and some names I recognise from the bad days of the European fish-farming industry - nitrofuran, chloramphenicol and organophosphate pesticides.

It's impressive and it shows the real efforts the Vietnamese government has been taking to educate farmers, reduce use of dangerous chemicals and improve quality. After all, export of farmed fish is worth $3.6 billion annually to the country. One government official said to me: 'We know Western people are suspicious of our seafood. There were scandals in 2002 that nearly destroyed our markets. So it is in our interest to keep quality high and reduce the use of chemicals.' And prawn farming has changed the face of Tra Vinh province. So much richer has the boom made this isolated corner of the Mekong's great delta that Oxfam will shortly end its long-standing poverty-reduction programmes.

'Shrimp has made this province rich,' the official said. And you can see it. Houses have televisions and mopeds outside them. School enrolment rates have soared. Five years after the scandals that nearly turned Europe off warm-water prawn, Vietnam's exports of the shellfish increased by 32 per cent last year. In Britain we're eating three times as many tropical prawns as we were five years ago - and the price of them has halved.

I ran the long list of chemicals we found past Peter Bridson, who is in charge of aquaculture at the Soil Association. He oversees the policing of the salmon farms in Scotland which, controversially, the Soil Association decided three years ago to certify as organic. Nothing we had found in Vietnam surprised him. 'This is what you see again and again in industrial aquaculture. There's a get- rich-quick attitude, everyone follows the boom. But then, one false step, and it crashes. And disease is usually the problem.'

Most of the chemicals we photographed in Mr Huong's shed are pesticides, feed enhancers and growth stimulants. 'These types of products are commonly used in Asian hatcheries,' says Bridson, who has worked in tropical fish farming. 'The farmers experiment. Someone chucks something in his tanks and gets good results. He tells his mates and the use of this product becomes mainstream in the area - whether it actually does anything or not.'

Mr Huong's Super Star contains a chemical commonly used as a 'nutritional enhancer'. It is marketed by the company Bayer in Europe as 'Butaphosphan'. On Bayer's website all I can find is a recommendation that it be used for injecting into sheep, dogs and cats suffering from 'stress, overexertion or exhaustion' and as a tonic in cases of weakness or anaemia in animals. (Bayer does not supply the chemical in Vietnam nor market it as a 'nutritional enhancer'.)

The problem is that some chemicals may do more harm than good - and not just to the image of the tropical prawn. Super Star also contains methyl hydroxybenzoate, an anti-fungal preservative that is banned in France and Australia and has been linked to cancer in some beauty treatments. The most dubious thing we found in the Huong's arsenal of chemicals was in a pot named 'N300'. It is a 'medicine for digestion and liver function', made by a Vietnamese company called Cong Ty TNHH. It had beta glucan, a harmless component of many human nutrition supplements, but also norfloxacin, an antibiotic usually used to treat gonorrhea and urinary-tract infections in humans. It is currently 'under watch' by the US Federal Drug Administration because of increased reports of nasty side effects, including damage to tendons.

Norfloxacin and its siblings, the fluoroquinolones, are banned for use in animals for human consumption in the States, and subject to EU controls in imports. Misuse of the fluoroquinolones is increasingly blamed for the rise in resistance to anti-bacterial medicines, and five floxacins are listed on the poster of banned chemicals we saw at the entrance to the village. Since 2005 Vietnam's fishery ministry has banned the use of fluoroquinolones in fish destined for the North American market, but not, apparently, for European countries. From the pile of empty N300 jars we saw, there is a lot of fluoroquinolone going into the feed for Mr Huong's prawns.

Numerous surveys have been done on the effects of the antibiotics that are used in prawn farming across the world (31 different ones were identified in Vietnam in a 2006 study, among a total 155 different drugs). They conclude that, although the antibiotics may rise to detectable levels in the bodies of the prawn, the most likely damage is being done to the environment in which they're farmed. It's Thi Mai who may have problems when doctors try to treat her for skin complaints, diarrhoea, respiratory problems and other bacterial infections, including malaria, which is common in this swampy landscape. They may find that she is resistant to the antibiotics. Scientists have speculated that some unusual outbreaks of salmonella poisoning in Europe and the States may have been started by antibiotic-resistant salmonella in farmed fish from Asia.

And the leakage of antibiotics and pesticides into the delicate ecosystem in the coastal shallows of the shrimp-farming countries will have effects that no one yet fully understands. Peter Bridson worries that the chemicals will intensify, because the water system is closed, with water being reused from one farm to another, and for human consumption. David Moriarty, a scientist at the University of Queensland who has studied the wide-scale use of norfloxacin and other anti-bacterials in aquaculture wrote nine years ago of disturbing effects in prawn farms in the Philippines: 'Many of the pathogens appear to have mutated to more virulent forms than were present a decade ago ... I feel that the incidence of disease has been exacerbated by the actions of the [prawn] farmers.' Moriarty now works promoting probiotics to tropical prawn farmers, as an alternative to lacing the waters with chemicals.

The Soil Association, meanwhile, which is currently processing applications to be certified organic from several tropical prawn farms, has decided not to allow any use of antibiotics in prawn-growing farms that want to carry its label. The Vietnamese, meanwhile, are working hard to police the use of antibiotics and other chemicals better. VASEP, the prawn exporters' and producers' organisation, points out that 25 new licences were granted to Vietnamese processors by the EU in January 2008, an endorsement of the fisheries ministry's 'urgent efforts' to improve sanitary and safety standards in the prawn industry.

So is that it for tiger prawn kebabs? How worried should we prawn lovers be? Well, norfloxacin is used by countless other farmers in Asia, but it is not illegal in most of those countries (though I could not find it on Vietnam's lengthy list of approved chemicals). There are increasing environmental fears about its overuse, and worries over the effect on human health of all the quinolones. But unless you have a serious king-prawn habit, you are unlikely to ingest anything like a human dose of norfloxacin.

Food & Water Watch, an American NGO that has studied prawn farming for 10 years, states in its latest report: 'The negative effects of eating industrially produced shrimp may include neurological damage from ingesting chemicals such as endosulfans, an allergic response to penicillin residues or infection by an antibiotic-resistant pathogen such as E coli.' That is a judicious 'may': a rational person in this age of food scares would have to conclude you're unlikely to suffer more ill effects from eating farmed prawns than from any other industrially produced food animal. But I wouldn't eat them every day.

It is certain, however, that banned or controlled chemicals are coming into the country with farmed prawns, despite the promises of governments and the retailers. Last year the EU rejected shipments of farmed prawn from six major exporters in India because they contained chloramphenicol and nitrofurans - two once-common antibiotics, one now known to cause leukaemia, the other a carcinogen.

The EU claims that this shows its regulations work, but the fact remains that the EU is thought to test only around one per cent of such shipments. America imports $3.9 billion worth of farmed prawn (or shrimp, as its known there) a year, yet tests hardly more of the shipments than does the EU. All the same, it rejected 2,817 shipments of seafood in 2005, most of them farmed 'shrimp'. And in Louisiana, a shrimp-producing region which conducts its own tests on imports, chloramphenicol was found in nine per cent of all foreign shrimp shipments in 2007.

I'm grateful to Taras Grescoe for that last piece of information. His fascinating new book, Bottomfeeder, describes the mad and scary practices of the fishing industry in nauseating detail. Grescoe says he thinks farmed prawn is the most disgusting of all the industrial farmed products - worse than salmon, worse than battery chicken. And he won't eat them.

It's not just the chemicals that turned him off. The land grab for prawn farms that has destroyed the mangrove forest has harmed wild animals and humans too. Seventy per cent of Ecuador's mangrove has gone. Rights to land are well-established in Vietnam, for women and men, but in other tropical countries there are disturbing reports of abuse of coastal peoples by big business cashing in on the boom. Food & Water Watch has visited one district of Andhra Pradesh in India where 2,000 families have become 'shrimp refugees', displaced by big corporations who wanted their land for prawn farms.

Unlike Grescoe, though, I'm not going to stop eating the prawns. That's too easy. Going on farmed-prawn strike won't hurt the villains in this story. They are, as in any tale of shipping the foods of the poor world to the rich in bulk, the big corporations, the processors and the retailers. They would survive a collapse of the industry - the people who won't are the poor coastal fishermen of Vietnam and 50 other countries, for whom prawn farming is proving a way out of poverty. These people have risked much to satisfy our demand for exotic seafood - there's no way back when you flood your family's rice paddy with seawater for tiger prawns. The salt from the water will make it impossible to grow rice again for years.

There are other ways to help them. Oxfam, which has been working in Tra Vinh for 10 years, is helping some of the farmers set up co-operatives and loan schemes to make traditional fishing and farming more lucrative: we visited villages where the whole community has become partners in a cockle-fishing enterprise. Its sustainable, it creates jobs and it's doing well.

But to make a difference across the tropics, we customers must demand better prawns, raised organically and in a way that's good for them and the people who farm them. We have to be prepared to pay more for them. On my desk I have a 212g box from my local supermarket of uncooked peeled king prawns from Vietnam, which I found on sale at a two-for-£5 deal. That means the 60 or so prawns cost me about 12p each - after shelling, freezing, packing and shipping. That is just two pence more than Mr Huong hoped to sell his prawns for. It's not enough. The price is the same for trawled wild prawns from the North Atlantic.

Bad prawn farming is caused by the same things as bad chicken farming - the relentless downward pressure on prices forced on producers by supermarkets. So, there's a good reason to buy organic. And a good reason too, to ask your supermarket to ensure that more of the money you are spending on a tiger prawn goes back to Mr Huong and his colleagues. Pay him a bit better, and he could farm a bit better. It's that simple.

Prawn cocktail: the chemicals used in one Vietnamese prawn pond

Butaphosphan is a veterinary medicine to treat metabolic and developmental disorders.

Methyl Hydroxybenzoate is an anti-fungal agent, also known as methylparaben. In beauty products parabens have been called hormone disrupters and reported to cause contact dermatitis. The science is as yet unclear and disputed by the cosmetics industry. A recent literature review of studies on methyl paraben found it to be 'practically non-toxic' with no evidence that it accumulates in tissue.

Norfloxacin is an antibiotic used to treat certain bacterial infections such as gonorrhea, prostate, and urinary tract infection. Norfloxacin and other fluoroquinolones are banned for use in animals for human consumption in the States, and subject to EU controls in imports. Over-use of antibiotics leads to resistance to them.


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Modest Carbon Dioxide Cutbacks May Be Too Little, Too Late For Coral Reefs

ScienceDaily 22 Sep 08;

How much carbon dioxide is too much? According to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) greenhouse gases in the atmosphere need to be stabilized at levels low enough to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."

But scientists have come to realize that an even more acute danger than climate change is lurking in the world's oceans—one that is likely to be triggered by CO2 levels that are modest by climate standards.

Ocean acidification could devastate coral reefs and other marine ecosystems even if atmospheric carbon dioxide stabilizes at 450 ppm, a level well below that of many climate change forecasts, report chemical oceanographers Long Cao and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The researchers' conclusions are based on computer simulations of ocean chemistry stabilized at atmospheric CO2 levels ranging from 280 parts per million (pre-industrial levels) to 2000 ppm. Present levels are 380 ppm and rapidly rising due to accelerating emissions from human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels.

This study was initiated as a result of Caldeira's testimony before a Congressional subcommittee on Fisheries, Wildlife and Oceans in April of 2007. At that time he was asked what stabilization level would be needed to preserve the marine environment, but had to answer that no such study had yet addressed that question. Cao and Caldeira's study helps fill the gap.

Atmospheric CO2 absorbed by the oceans' surface water produces carbonic acid, the same acid that gives soft drinks their fizz, making certain carbonate minerals dissolve more readily in seawater. This is especially true for aragonite, the mineral used by corals and many other marine organisms to grow their skeletons. For corals to be able to build reefs, which requires rapid growth and strong skeletons, the surrounding water needs to be highly supersaturated with aragonite.

"Before the industrial revolution, over 98% of warm water coral reefs were surrounded by open ocean waters at least 3.5 times supersaturated with aragonite" says Cao. "But even if atmospheric CO2 stabilizes at the current level of 380 ppm, fewer than half of existing coral reef will remain in such an environment. If the levels stabilize at 450 ppm, fewer than 10% of reefs would be in waters with the kind of chemistry that has sustained coral reefs in the past."

For the ecologically productive cold waters near the poles, the prospects are equally grim, says Cao. "At atmospheric CO2 levels as low as 450 ppm, large parts of the Southern Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, and the North Pacific would experience a rise in acidity that would violate US Environmental Protection Agency water quality standards." Under those conditions the shells of many marine organisms would dissolve, including those at the base of the food chain.

"If current trends in CO2 emissions continue unabated," says Caldeira, "in the next few decades, we will produce chemical conditions in the oceans that have not been seen for tens of millions of years. We are doing something very profound to our oceans. Ecosystems like coral reefs that have been around for many millions of years just won't be able to cope with the change."

"When you go to the seashore, the oceans seem huge," he adds. "It's hard to imagine we could wreck it all. But if we want our children to enjoy a healthy ocean, we need to start cutting carbon emissions now."


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Damage from Ike could affect coastal ecosystem of Texas for years

· Coastline of Texas under stress
· Higher sea levels from global warming adds to threat
· Texas coast crucial for a wide range of life

McClatchy newspapers, guardian.co.uk 22 Sep 08;

It was a violent dose of nature to a coast already hammered by decades of pollution, population growth and habitat loss. As scientists and land managers start to assess the storm's impacts on beaches, dunes and marshes, they are seeing signs of present damage and future worries.

"The impacts are going to be phenomenal," said Jim Sutherlin, superintendent of the Texas parks and wildlife department's 24,250-acre J.D. Murphree Wildlife Management Area, near Port Arthur. "We're going to take the critters that crawl or walk, and for the full stretch of the coastal zone that got the full impact of the coastal flood, they're just eliminated."

Although big storms are a natural part of any coastline's life story, the upper Gulf Coast of Texas was already under stress from many sources.

Coastal development and subsidence - a drop in the land's surface level as petroleum and groundwater are pumped out - have degraded large areas of marsh. Excessive organic material in coastal waters creates a "dead zone" of almost no oxygen in the upper Texas gulf.

And today's idea of a normal Texas coast could change dramatically in a future with higher sea levels from global warming. Earlier this month, scientists from three American universities concluded in the journal Science that a global sea level rise of 31.5 inches by the year 2100 should be the assumption. The highest conceivable rise, they estimate, is 6.5 feet.

Even the lower figure would put much of the existing Texas coastline permanently under water and would let a hurricane's strongest force reach farther inland. With coastal development, storms and rising seas all chewing away natural defences such as dunes and wetlands, damage from future hurricanes is likely to get worse.

"I'm sure what we'll see (from Ike) is more evidence of what happens when we don't maintain those natural barriers," said Larry McKinney, executive director of the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico studies at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi.
"A hurricane is kind of a small-scale climate-change model," McKinney said. "We really need to start pulling together a long-term plan for responding to climate change."

The Texas coast is crucial to an astonishing range of life, from fish and amphibians to the birds that stop over during migrations along the great Central Flyway from South American winter habitats to arctic nesting grounds. What happens to the dunes, estuaries and marshes along the upper Gulf Coast can be felt across the entire hemisphere for years.

Under natural conditions, coastal ecosystems adapt to the effects of hurricanes and even use them to flush out marshes and estuaries, changing water chemistry and plant communities.

Storms can restart the cycles of succession, or the natural rhythm of birth, maturity, death and rebirth in an ecosystem.

Coastal habitats also absorb storms' energy, a lesson made real in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina rushed ashore unimpeded by the former marsh that once protected New Orleans. The long, narrow strips of sand that parallel the Texas coast and the marshes behind them attempt the same role; they aren't called barrier islands for nothing.

Ike's storm surge threatened to take out in a few hours the dune build-up of years, and to drown under seawater the marshes that survive on a mixture of fresh water and saltwater. The death of more marshes and the loss of the natural protection they provide is a certainty, experts said.

"These marshes were not in a healthy, dynamic state to start with because of human impacts," said Sutherlin, the wildlife area superintendent. Hundreds of acres, perhaps thousands, will be lost, he added.

"Everything's still under water," Sutherlin said. "It looks like an ocean out there."

The hurricane's effect on the complex natural system of the Texas coast will be apparent when scientists measure water quality in the gulf. The northernmost reaches of the Texas shoreline frequently becomes a "dead zone" with extremely low oxygen levels, but a hurricane quickly restores the oxygen, said Steve DiMarco of Texas A&M's department of oceanography.

Unlike the more widely publicised dead zone at the mouth of the Mississippi river, which is attributed to excessive nitrates from farming and other upriver sources, the Texas dead zone is linked to organic material of uncertain origin stirred up from coastal marshes. Sea level rise will complicate the problem.

"Over the long run, as the seawater flushes in, more organic material will get out," DiMarco said. But as to whether that will mean a bigger dead zone, "I won't go that far."

Steps for reducing hurricane threats range from restoring marshes to keeping people away from vulnerable areas. However, with each successive storm, each census showing coastal population increasing, and each new, higher projection of sea-level rise, Texas coastal experts fear that they have fewer choices.

"We have some options, but they're running out," said McKinney of the Harte Institute. "We need to take advantage of this disaster to learn."


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Burying CO2 Could Pay for Itself by 2030 - Report

Pete Harrison, PlanetArk 23 Sep 08;

BRUSSELS - Trapping and burying carbon dioxide from power plants could become viable without public funding by 2030, helping nations reduce their dependence on energy imports and meet climate goals, a report said on Monday.

But that could happen only if obstacles to the technology are removed and polluters are forced to pay more to emit CO2 in cap and trade schemes, it added. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is seen by industry as a potential silver bullet to curb emissions from coal-fired power plants, which are multiplying rapidly in India and China, threatening to heat the atmosphere to dangerous levels.

Companies are working on cutting-edge technology to trap CO2 and pump it into empty gas fields and deep underground caverns, but utilities are reluctant to use the process as it adds about 1 billion euros (US$1.42 billion) to the cost of each power plant.

The European Union wants up to 12 demonstration plants by 2015 in the hope they will find ways of cutting future costs. EU sources say the bloc is close to agreeing billions of euros of public funding to kick-start the pilot projects.

Once it has built momentum and been properly developed, the cost of burying CO2 could fall to 30-45 euros per tonne by 2030, said the report by consultancy McKinsey and Co.

"Costs at these levels would make CCS installations economically self-sustaining at a carbon price of 30-48 euros per tonne," it added, referring to the price of permits to emit CO2 under the EU's flagship Emission Trading Scheme (ETS).

The ETS caps how much CO2 industries may emit and establishes a system for trading in emissions permits.

The price of carbon being traded in the scheme on Monday was around 25 euros, for December delivery, but the report cited five studies by financial institutions that forecast prices would rise significantly by 2030.

"On the one hand, (CCS) could provide greater energy security by making the burning of Europe's abundant coal more environmentally acceptable, and so reducing the dependency on imported natural gas," the report said.

"On the other, it could potentially improve the environmental impact of new energy forms such as electric cars and hydrogen, which could be produced with CCS-based electricity," it added.

(Reporting by Pete Harrison)


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Sacrificing Millennium Goals would be a real crisis

Felix Dodds and Michael Strauss, BBC Green Room 22 Sep 08;

As the UN prepares to assess the Millennium Development Goals this week, will tension between the consumption of the North and the development of the South doom both to a future of crises and scarcity? Felix Dodds and Michael Strauss argue that allowing the Millennium Goals and their environmental aims to slide would be a false economy.

In 1928, Mahatma Gandhi observed: "God forbid that India should ever take to industrialisation after the manner of the West.

"The economic imperialism of a single tiny island kingdom (the UK) is today keeping the world in chains. If an entire nation of 300 million took to similar economic exploitation, it would strip the world bare like locusts."

More than half a century before anyone had even considered the term "sustainable development", Mahatma Gandhi warned of the dangers facing a rapidly developing world.

Almost 80 years later, the population of India has quadrupled, and the US - the world's greatest over-consumer - has a population of 300 million.

The risks prophesised by Gandhi have started to come true.

Eight years ago this week, in September 2000, more than 100 presidents, prime ministers and leaders of the world's nations met in New York and unanimously agreed upon the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

These goals focused predominantly on providing nutrition, energy, water, education, healthcare and environmental protection for one half of the world's one billion poorest citizens, by 2015.

Having now passed the halfway point to 2015, heads of government will meet in the UN General Assembly in New York this week to assess progress towards achieving those goals.

A reality check is definitely in order. It is estimated, for example, that none of the targets will be met in sub-Saharan Africa if current trends continue, and this is before account is taken of the real effects of the recent crises in food and energy, the rapid increase in impacts of climate change, and the major implications of a global economic slowdown.

Crisis from nowhere

In the past year - each in only a matter of months - two parallel environmental and economic crises have seized global attention.

In late 2007, prices of food began to soar, fuelled by increased consumption in rapidly developing countries, by extreme weather that damaged harvests in numerous in agricultural regions, and by global financial speculation.

At almost the same time, the cost of a barrel of oil started to spiral upward. It too was fed by increased developing country consumption and global commodity speculation, but also by political threats to production and by the breathtaking failure of the biggest oil-consuming nation to implement any meaningful energy reduction policies.

Much in the way that Hurricane Katrina woke up Americans to the fact that global warming had real impacts and that they could happen anywhere, the present food crisis has made clear that we could be only one drought, one rice failure, or one crop infestation away from provoking paradigm-shifting reactions in developed countries.

Whatever form that reaction might take - a riot over food prices in an American inner city? Government rationing of rice in Japan? Mass arrests of striking farmers in France? - it would irrevocably and drastically shift the global political reality.

The unanticipated emergence of these crises symbolises how quickly events thought to be under control can spin out of it; how issues that seem to be independent of each other can set off mutually restricting limits on action; and how much closer than we'd realised the world might be to series of "tipping points" beyond which there are few constructive ways to avoid global catastrophe.

A specific example of those impacts - and there could be many - is the rise in the price of rice, a basic food crop, from $425 a tonne in January 2008 to $1,080 by April 2008.

Calling it the "silent tsunami", Josette Sheeran, executive director of the UN World Food Programme, described the impact of the food and energy crises like this: "Those people living on less than $2 a day cut out health and education, and kill or sell their livestock.

"Those living on less than $1 a day cut out protein and vegetables from their diet.

"Those living on less than 50 cents a day cut out whole meals, and sometimes go days without meals."

Exacerbating the situation has been the international financial crisis that has pushed most nations' economies towards or into economic recession. That recession is helping to intensify the very food and energy crises that helped bring it about.

As the challenges for the poor continue to escalate, what has been the response of the developed countries?

Development assistance has dropped from a high of $107.1bn in 2005 to $104.4bn in 2006 - and recent OECD figures show a further fall by 8.4% to $103.7bn in 2007.

This represents a decline to 0.28% of GDP by the industrialised countries, which - as recently as 2002 in Monterrey at the UN Conference on Financing for Development - had committed to providing assistance at the rate of 0.7%.

Meanwhile, according to Euromonitor International, worldwide retail sales of dog and cat food topped $45bn in 2007, which signifies a growth of nearly 43% in five years.

Squaring the circle

The big question therefore remains: what would the world's economy have to look like to allow it to resolve these emerging crises and achieve the MDGs?

Our planet will clearly need to practice a different type of development, one that is sustainable.

Such a model was agreed at the 1992 Earth Summit, in Rio. Governments there recognised "common, but differentiated, responsibilities"; in other words, that rich countries need to reduce consumption while poorer countries have a right to develop, but must do so sustainably.

Climate change provides a critical example of the need for such integration.

Part of the increase in food prices has been caused by the negative impact of growing corn to provide biofuels for energy - a linkage that had been overlooked by policymakers.

This failure illustrates the importance and difficulty of co-operating between sectoral areas and specialties.

It shows why development, environment, trade, and economics must all be incorporated in order to formulate effective policies.

There has been significant progress in moving some previously controversial environmental proposals into the political mainstream.

A promising idea has emerged of using of individual carbon budgets, while the goal of reducing carbon footprints is already accepted by many corporations and leading politicians.

The important point is that any successful strategy must move towards reducing total consumption - especially among the affluent populations that have been guilty of the greatest excess.

Contrary to the campaign pledge proudly proclaimed on the eve of the Rio summit by then US President George Herman Walker Bush, the consumption-driven American lifestyle must indeed be negotiable.

Serial failure

The failure to implement the agreements of the Earth Summits in Rio and Johannesburg has facilitated the emergence of multiple environmental, economic and development threats.

Will the industrialised nations now cite their weakening economies as an excuse not to fulfil their commitments to the MDGs, thinking that might help bolster their own economies?

They will be very tempted to; but it would be disastrously self-defeating.

Reverting to a policy of economic nationalism and self-interest could quite likely make worse - not better - the crises in energy and food and the global economy.

It was, after all, the failure of the US and EU to drop their agricultural trade barriers that kept developing country farmers from expanding production, and significantly contributed to the food crisis in the first place.

On the other hand, adequately funding the MDGs could provide precisely the kind of global economic stimulus (given its investment in energy, food and water infrastructure, and its infusion of income to the poorest consumers) that could help lift all economies out of recession - including developed countries.

In his quote above, Gandhi described human beings as behaving like locusts - but he did so in order to encourage humans to turn in a different direction.

We, as a species, no longer have 80, 50 or even 20 years to take that turn.

It is time for all individuals to reconsider their attitudes regarding their consumption patterns.

It is time for political parties to be honest about the options the world faces.

It is time for governments and the UN to take action necessary to achieve the Millennium Development Goals and to pioneer a development path on which all the world's billions can survive sustainably on this one planet.

Felix Dodds is executive director of Stakeholder Forum for a Sustainable Future, and Michael Strauss is executive director of Earth Media

The Green Room is a series of opinion article on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website


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Greenland's ice cap melting faster than expected: experts

Yahoo News 22 Sep 08;

Greenland's ice cap, which covers more than 80 percent of the island, is melting faster than expected because of global warming, a Danish researcher said on Monday.

The 1.8-million-square-kilometre (695,000-square-mile) ice cap, which accounts for 10 percent of the planet's fresh water, is losing about 257 cubic kilometres (62 cubic miles) of ice per year.

In 2080, it is expected to lose 465 cubic kilometres (111 cubic miles) per year, according to new estimates presented by a Danish-US team of scientists at the International Research Center in Fairbanks, Alaska.

The net loss in 2080 would be "81 percent greater than today" and would cause "sea levels to rise by 107 millimetres" (4.2 inches), the team's head researcher Sebastian Mernild said in a statement received in Copenhagen.

Satellite observations show that "the global water level has since 1993 risen by three millimetres (0.11 inches) per year, or at a much more accelerated pace than during the last century" when it rose by 1.7 millimetres (0.06 inches) per year, he said.

"The ice cap's melting season beat a new record in 2007, corresponding to a loss of 50 percent of the ice's total surface. And this record will not be the last one," he warned.

"The ice melt at the end of the 2070s will rise to 66 percent, or about 1.204 million square kilometres," said Mernild, adding that the melting process was "occurring at faster rate than previously predicted."

The research team's calculations, based on climate models and the UN climate panel's predicted scenarios, showed that "the average air temperature (in Greenland) will rise by some 2.7 degrees by the end of the century," he said.


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'Earth Overshoot Day' to mark overuse of resources

Yahoo News 22 Sep 08;

Green groups will stage "Earth Overshoot Day" on Tuesday to draw attention to estimates that people are gobbling up 40 percent more in resources than the planet can currently replenish.

Over-population and gluttonous lifestyles are driving destruction of forests, fisheries, biodiversity and soil quality, while climate change is inflicting droughts and flooding that stress water supplies and agriculture, according to campaign organisers Global Footprint Network (GFN) (www.footprintnetwork.org).

"Earth Overshoot Day" is determined by the last date in the year at which the planet's 6.7 billion people are living in balance with the planet's biocapacity.

That means in 2008 the period from September 24 to December 31 represents the time in which more resources are being consumed than the Earth can regenerate this year.

The overuse adds to a mounting global ecological "debt," says GFN.

The last full year when people were deemed to be living in resource equilibrium was in 1985, when the global population was around 4.8 billion.

In 2007, "Earth Overshoot Day" -- also called "Ecological Debt Day" -- was set at October 6.

The United States is the biggest ecological deficit spender, according to the campaign.

If all people adopted the American lifestyle, with its emphasis on large homes, mobility and voracious use of energy, the world's population would need 5.4 "Earths" to meet its needs, according to GFN figures for 2006.

Canada (with a lifestyle of 4.2 "Earths"), Britain (3.1), Germany (2.5) are also singled out as huge consumers of resources.


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