Hot day in Sungei Buloh Wetland Reserve!
from Project Orion II
Last morning trip at Sentosa
from wonderful creation
Oil-spill check on Tanah Merah
from wild shores of singapore
Fantastic Changi!
from Psychedelic Nature
Feeding Spotted Dove: 8. Aggression
from Bird Ecology Study Group
the flying blue pansy
from into the wild
Sentosa's Dolphin Lagoon is too small: SPCA
from wild shores of singapore
Facility doesn't allow space for 6 dolphins; Underwater World says area exceeds guidelines
Grace Chua Straits Times 10 Sep 10;
The main pool (above) of the new Dolphin Lagoon houses two adult females and an eight-year-old male, while another adult male, an adult female and her two-year-old calf are housed in two smaller adjacent holding pools. -- ST PHOTO: MARYANNE TAN
THE Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (SPCA) has raised concerns that the Underwater World's new Dolphin Lagoon is too small for its six dolphins.
In June, it paid a visit to the new facility next to Underwater World's premises at Sentosa's Siloso Point, and wrote to the attraction's management about the pool.
'The new pool is no longer in a 'natural' setting - instead, it is now a concrete swimming pool,' the SPCA website said.
SPCA executive officer Deirdre Moss pointed out that individual pink dolphins in the wild have a home range of 30 sq km to 400 sq km.
But Underwater World's trainers and vets noted that the wild animals swim great distances to look for food, a resource provided for in captivity.
The $10.5 million Dolphin Lagoon, completed last November, houses six endangered Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins, often called pink dolphins due to their distinctive skin colour.
It was built as a replacement for the previous Dolphin Lagoon at the other end of Sentosa on Tanjong Beach, which saw its lease expire last year.
The previous lagoon had a surface area of 1ha and held 30,000 cubic m of water, or enough water to fill 12 Olympic-size swimming pools.
Underwater World did not give the dimensions of the new pool, but said it exceeded international guidelines and safety standards. It has also been approved by the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority (AVA).
Eight-year-old male Splash, the world's first pink dolphin to be born in captivity, and two adult female dolphins are in the main pool, while another adult male, an adult female and her two-year-old calf are housed in two smaller adjacent holding pools.
And where the old Dolphin Lagoon had shores made of natural rock, the walls of the new one are smooth and man-made.
Pool size is not everything, said Dr Frederic Chua, a veterinary consultant to Underwater World and a former curator there.
The pool design took into account factors like water quality and social interaction.
The new pool also allows vets and trainers to see the animals more clearly, as it does not have a sandy, rocky bottom and is brighter, making it easier to treat the dolphins when they get injured or ill. The old pool was also prone to algae, bacteria and jellyfish.
A National University of Singapore duo, comprising a student and a researcher, is currently studying the dolphins' behaviour in captivity to find out whether the animals act differently before and after shows, which take place three times a day.
When dolphins are stressed, they stop eating, lose weight and may swim repeatedly in circles or injure themselves.
'If new information becomes available, we will apply it and redesign the pool and activities, but it needs to be evidence-based, not emotion-based,' Dr Chua said.
AVA spokesman Goh Shih Yong said the space provided for the animals surpasses international recommendations for space, water quality and animal husbandry.
'(It) exceeds the standards set by the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, which safeguards animal welfare in the United States, as well as the European Association for Aquatic Mammals (EAAM),' he said in an e-mail.
The EAAM standards for total space for up to five animals, including hospitalisation or isolation areas, are: a minimum water surface area of 275 sq m with a minimum depth of 3.5m, and a minimum water volume of 1,000 cubic m.
For an extra animal, there must be an extra 75 sq m of surface area and 200 cubic m of water.
The SPCA letter is not the first time local animal groups have raised concerns about dolphins in captivity.
In 2003, the Animal Concerns Research and Education Society campaigned against dolphin performances, saying they put undue stress on the animals. It also added that the previous Dolphin Lagoon was too small.
Matt Walker BBC News 8 Sep 10;
Dolphins living in Shark Bay, Australia have developed a rare, and extraordinary new behaviour..comp.jpg)
The dolphins have become shell-collectors, using their snouts to pick up and transport large conchs.
The dolphins seek out the shells to hunt fish that are sheltering within.
It is likely that the dolphins originally chased the fish into the conchs, and have now learnt to bring the shells to the surface, where they can flush out and eat their prey.
The foraging tactic is "quite spectacular", say researchers, who have published photographs and details of the behaviour in the journal Marine Mammal Science.
The dolphins of Shark Bay, Western Australia are well known to scientists, as they are one of the best studied dolphin populations in the world.
"Shark Bay dolphins are known as clever inventors, showing a remarkable range of foraging tactics, which are unprecedented in other cetacean populations," says biologist Dr Michael Krützen of the University of Zurich, Switzerland.
For example, these dolphins have developed a number of novel ways to catch fish.
Sometimes the dolphins 'hydroplane' into extreme shallow water, beating their tails furiously to pursue fish into the shallows where they are more easily caught.
In doing so, the dolphins can beach themselves in pursuit of the fish, wriggling their way back into the sea.
They use another trick called 'kerplunking', whereby the dolphins slap their tails over beds of seagrass, creating bubbles that flush out fish hiding within.
Most remarkable, perhaps, is the technique known as 'sponging'.
Some dolphins intentionally pick up marine sponges with their snouts (known as a rostrum), and use them as 'gloves' or 'shields' to protect their sensitive snouts when rubbing them into the sandy seabed to forage..comp.jpg)
This is a cultural trait passed down from mother to offspring, the only known example of culturally transmitted tool use among cetaceans.
Shake it out
Now Dr Krützen and colleagues Mr Simon Allen and Dr Lars Bejder of the Cetacean Research Unit at Murdoch University, Western Australia describe another extraordinary innovation by the same group of dolphins.
An individual dolphin inserts its snout into a sizable conch, then lifts the shell up from the sea floor, carrying it to the surface.
Although rarely observed, this behaviour has been spotted by a number of researchers working in Shark Bay.
Now the marine biologists have obtained a series of photographs of the dolphins collecting shells, that reveal why they do it.
The dolphins appear to be hunting fish that have taken refuge inside the shells, as evidenced by photographs showing a relatively large fish falling from a conch being shaken by one dolphin (see above).
"We don't know whether the dolphins go searching in otherwise vacant conch shells for fish and just 'happen' to find prey therein, or whether they actively pursue fish into the vacant conch shells and then lift them to the surface, shaking them about to drain the water and the hapless fish into the waiting jaws of death," Mr Allen told the BBC.
The researchers suspect the dolphins are pursuing fish into the shells, due to the dolphins' erratic swimming before reaching the conchs and rapid surfacing once they have located the shells.
Once they reach the surface, the dolphins shake the shells to make the water and fish spill out.
"It's quite surprising that they are apparently manipulating such large, heavy, cumbersome objects in such a way as to secure a meal," says Mr Allen.
"I think the behaviour is quite unusual, otherwise it would presumably have been seen more often."
As yet, there is no evidence that the behaviour is being culturally transmitted between dolphins, but "I'd say we were lucky enough to witness a dolphin being innovative," says Mr Allen.
Straits Times Forum 10 Sep 10;
I REFER to Wednesday's letters ('How zoo is ensuring survival of endangered animals' and 'Sheba and Inuka thriving well in Singapore') in response to our letter ('Polar bears and zoo's green contradiction'; Sept 1).
Animal Concerns Research and Education Society (Acres) would like to clarify that we are not requesting for the polar bears Sheba and Inuka to be moved out of Singapore, nor are we requesting for them to be released into the wild.
The current conditions for both polar bears are far from optimal, and the current enclosure fails to meet the minimum standards laid out in the Polar Bear Protection Act, which was made law by the government of Manitoba, Canada, in 2003.
The Singapore Zoo enclosure fails both in terms of size and design.
In 2007, Acres publicly stated that 'if Inuka is to remain in tropical Singapore, we strongly urge the zoo to consider drastically improving the living conditions and raising them to meet international standards'.
We once again congratulate the zoo for building a new enclosure for the polar bears and meeting our recommendations.
We, however, sincerely hope that the zoo remains committed to its stand on not importing any more Arctic animals and focuses its efforts on fighting climate change and being a tropical zoo.
Louis Ng
Executive Director
Acres (Animal Concerns Research
and Education Society)
Hetty Musfirah Abdul Khamid Channel NewsAsia 9 Sep 10;
SINGAPORE: Congestion on Singapore's roads has renewed calls for more aggressive measures to curb the vehicle population.
One solution is to have zero vehicular growth, a point raised by Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong at a dialogue with grassroots leaders recently.
Observers said implementing such a move is imminent as Singapore roads are nearing maximum capacity.
Singapore's vehicle population has grown to about one million. With limited land, vehicle growth rate has been set at 1.5% for the next two years.
But, is this sustainable?
Dr Lim Wee Kiak, chairman of Government Parliamentary Committee for Transport, said: "We should maintain our current fleet of vehicles, not to increase further. Perhaps, given a chance, Ministry of Transport should consider a reduction in vehicle number rather than (an) increase.
"We are looking at a reduction in growth, but what I will like to see is to reach the zero (growth) faster. In Parliament, we have been pushing for some sort of a zero growth, if not, even a negative growth to counteract the excess over the last few years.
"They should release (fewer) COEs compared to the number of vehicles taken off the roads so that there is actually a reduction in the number of vehicles in Singapore."
The reduction in COEs will mean higher car prices. Is this likely to get more people on public transport?
"I will still strive to get a car, even if the price is high," said a member of the public.
"I still want to own a car," said another.
"If you are holding a certain position, you may need it (car) for the image," said a third.
"I will give up my car, if the transport in Singapore is able to achieve the coverage.....(such that) we can go anywhere conveniently," said a fourth.
Such reasons are why many say aggressive measures are needed to convince people to take public transport.
One suggestion has been for public transport operators to offer fare discounts for travel during off-peak hours, as this is likely to tackle the problem of overcrowding in trains.
Dr Lim Wee Kiak said that with discounts, more people would consider spreading out their travel. "So there would be spaces for everyone," he said.
Buses must also become a more reliable alternative, said Associate Professor Lee Der Horng from the Department of Civil Engineering at the National University of Singapore (NUS).
He said: "We must take some very aggressive approach. What we have to do is, other than the MRT, we have to pay more attention to the buses.
"Can we provide more full-day bus lanes? Can we give higher priority to public transportation vehicle like the bus? Can we improve the level of bus service, have cleaner buses, newer buses, faster buses, safer and more comfortable (bus travel)?"
Meanwhile, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) said it will conduct a review in 2012 to determine an allowable vehicular growth rate. It also said that even if the growth rate is reduced to zero, there will still be a need for usage measures to effectively manage demand for roads.
- CNA/ir
Zero vehicular growth to curb congestion?
Experts and drivers say public transport needs to up its game first
Hetty Musfirah Abdul Khamid Today Online 10 Sep 10;
SINGAPORE - The congestion on the roads has renewed calls for more aggressive measures to curb the vehicle population.
One solution is to have zero vehicular growth, a point suggested by Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong at a recent dialogue with grassroots leaders.
Observers said implementing such a move is imminent as Singapore roads are nearing maximum capacity. Singapore's vehicle population has grown to about one million. With limited land, the vehicle growth rate has been set at 1.5 per cent for the next two years.
But some observers wonder if the growth rate is sustainable.
Dr Lim Wee Kiak, chairman of the Government Parliamentary Committee for Transport, said: "We should maintain our current fleet of vehicles, not to increase further ... We are looking at a reduction in growth, but what I will like to see is to reach the zero (growth) faster."
Fewer COEs should be released compared to the number of vehicles taken off the roads, he added.
The reduction in COEs will mean higher car prices. But whether that will translate to more people taking public transport remains to be seen. Some of those interviewed told MediaCorp that they would still try to buy a car even if the price is high.
One driver said: "I will give up my car if public transport in Singapore is able to achieve coverage such that we can go anywhere, conveniently."
Given Singaporeans' well-documented desire to own a car, many observers believe that aggressive measures are needed to convince people to take public transport.
One suggestion has been for public transport operators to offer fare discounts for travel during off-peak hours, as this is likely to tackle the problem of overcrowding.
Dr Lim said that with discounts, more people would consider spreading out their travel.
Buses must also become a more reliable alternative, said associate professor Lee Der Horng, from the National University of Singapore's Department of Civil Engineering.
"Can we improve the level of service for our buses, and have cleaner, newer, faster, safer and more comfortable buses? If that is what we can provide in our bus service, together with our MRT system, I believe people will respond and use public transportation," he said.
The Land Transport Authority said it will conduct a review in 2012 to determine an allowable vehicle growth rate.
Even if the vehicular growth rate is reduced to zero, there will still be a need for usage measures to effectively manage demand for roads, it added.
Howard Shaw Today Online 10 Sep 10;
As our community grows, and our personal needs grow in a society that is still dominated by material goods and getting more out of every hour of every day, we are learning even more about our effects on the environment, and it is disturbing to all of us.
When thinking about alternative modes of transportation, various options need to be taken into consideration. Do we really need a personal car?
In a small island state like Singapore, the answer is no.
Yet most people who own a car would claim that their main motive is for convenience. This raises a different question: What can be done to improve convenience and encourage the population to rely more on public and alternative modes of transportation?
There are several improvements which could be made in Singapore to have people adopt more sustainable modes of transportation.
First of all, the public transport system is fast reaching saturation point. As the population increases, the public transport network must keep up at the same rate. A lot of effort can be put into improving the network by expanding the number of routes and increasing the frequency of buses and MRT trains. Many people own a car for the simple reason that the area they live in or want to access is not serviced or easily accessible by public transport.
The bicycle and pedestrian tracks remain undeveloped in Singapore. It remains difficult to go from point A to B without having to ride along the busy roads. A lot of effort could therefore be invested into developing a proper network of safe tracks for bicycles and pedestrians.
The cost of buying a hybrid vehicle remains much higher than that of a normal car. In order to have people purchase this type of vehicle which have lesser emissions, the government would need to provide a range of incentives.
Electric vehicles have recently been introduced to Singapore, and they have the advantage of having zero emissions during their usage. However, we must keep in mind that almost all of the energy in Singapore is derived from the burning of fossil fuel from natural gas. Therefore, in order for such cars to have a positive impact on reducing emissions, the energy grid powering these cars would need to be from a sustainable source (for example, solar or wind).
From the angle of transport for our daily activities, we could look at the necessity of most people needing to move twice a day in order to get to and from work. As society is changing, so should our daily behaviours. An increasing number of companies in Europe and North America adopt a work from home concept. Employees are no longer required to physically be at the office for work but are assessed on work output and deliverables which can all be done from home. Such a model applied on a large scale can have very significant impacts on reducing unnecessary transportation.
The end message is this: In order to make significant changes in mitigating emissions from the transportation sector, we would need to rethink our daily behaviour and activities. Last but not least, a lot of effort can be done to raise awareness on the need to shift to sustainable modes of transportation and highlight the issue of global warming.
The Singapore Environment Council (SEC) believes in education and outreach to the public on such issues and is organising the Singapore G1 for this reason. The Singapore G1 is an event featuring races like the Soap Box Derby, Eco Car Race, Buggy Race, Trishaw Race and other activities like walking and cycling.
SEC aims to raise awareness and encourage the development and use of green technologies in transportation, and more cost-effective modes of transportation like public transport. At the same time, Singapore G1 promotes simple lifestyle changes like walking and cycling.
The writer is the executive director of the Singapore Environment Council (SEC). The Singapore G1 green event is supported by Today as part of the newspaper's 10th anniversary celebrations.
Members of the public can head down to the Float @ Marina Bay on Sept 19, between 2pm and 8pm to watch Asia's first Soap Box Derby. For more information, please visit www.singaporeg1.sg or call SEC on 6337 6062.
Straits Times 10 Sep 10;
JILIN: Singapore yesterday took a big step forward in developing its first food zone in China by breaking ground on a new pig farm here.
The integrated pig farm, which aims to produce one million pigs annually, was an investment by Singapore Food Industries (SFI) and its joint venture partners. It spans more than 100,000 sq m and will cover all aspects of the pork supply chain, from feed milling to breeding and processing.
Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan officiated at the ground-breaking ceremony here yesterday. At the ceremony, Mr Mah said the project 'signifies a new dimension of collaboration between Singapore and Jilin province', according to a Ministry of National Development release.
'This ground-breaking ceremony is particularly meaningful as we celebrate the 20th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and Singapore this year,' he added.
The pig farm is part of the proposed Jilin-Singapore Agriculture and Food Zone, which aims to provide Singaporeans with a ready supply of healthy vegetables, fruit and meat for decades to come.
It should be completed in about nine months, said SFI yesterday in a joint statement with its partners - a Jilin-Singapore joint venture company and Taiwan's DaChan Food (Asia). They aim to create China's first foot-and-mouth disease-free pig farm, certified by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and the World Organisation for Animal Health.
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) launches Local and Regional Policy Makers report
UNEP 9 Sep 10;
9 September 2010 - Factoring in the planet's multi-trillion dollar ecosystem services, the benefits that human populations derive from ecosystems, such as food and water, into policy-making can help save cities and regional authorities' money while boosting the local economy, enhancing quality of life, securing livelihoods and generating employment.
This is the finding from a major international study, launched in a report by TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers, being released in India, Brazil, Belgium, Japan and South Africa today.
The new report, entitled TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers, prepared by The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) initiative hosted by the United Nations Environment Programme, calls on local policy makers to understand the value of natural capital and the services it provides and apply a focus on nature's benefits in local policy areas such as urban management, spatial planning and protected areas management.
The report aims to provide an inspiring starting point for rethinking local policy. Highlighting practicality, the report calls for local authorities to take a stepwise approach to assessing options that factor nature's benefits into local policy action. This approach includes: assessing ecosystem services and expected changes in their availability and distribution; identifying which ecosystem services are most relevant to particular policy issues; assessing impacts of policy options on different groups in the community.
A number of local authorities from around the world are already seeing the value of an ecosystems approach to planning. Examples include:
* The replacement value of the South African municipality of Durban's ecosystem goods and services supplied by Durban's 2002 Open Space system was conservatively estimated at US$ 0.41 billion per annum. This figure does not include the tourism sector which is valued at an additional US$ 0.44 billion per annum. The Municipality is now investigating how to value municipal-owned spaces and include them on its asset register in order to make better provision for ongoing management (Source: Richard Boon1).
* Hiware Bazaar, has become home to more than 50 millionaires (in Rupees) and boasts one of the highest average rural incomes in India. In the 1970s, problems from low rainfall were exacerbated by increased run-off due to deforestation and vegetation loss leading to acute water shortages. Village elders and leaders realised that better management of water and forests was needed. With additional resources, and good coordination between government departments, the village members regenerated 70 ha of degraded forests, the number of active wells doubled, grass production went up and income from agriculture increased. In less than a decade, poverty reduced by 73% and there was an overall increase in the quality of life with people returning to the village. (Adapted from 'Sakhuja 2010'2).
* Local authorities in Canberra, Australia have enhanced urban quality of life by planting 400,000 trees. Besides making the city greener, the trees are expected to regulate the microclimate, reduce pollution and thereby improve urban air quality, reduce energy costs for air conditioning as well as store and sequester carbon. Combined, these benefits are expected to amount to the equivalent of US$ 20-67 million for the period 2008-2012 in terms of the value generated or savings incurred to the city (Source: Brack 20023).
The report highlights cities dependence on nature and illustrates how ecosystem services can provide cost effective solutions to municipal services. It shows how, in rural development and natural resource management, ecosystems services with high market value are often promoted to the detriment of the regulating services that are equally important but less obvious. It investigates planning frameworks and environmental impact assessments that can proactively include a strong focus on ecosystem services and identify the economic potential of this shift in approach.
Enhancing local benefits from conservation, protected areas is studied and the report also offers guidance on incentives that reward good stewardship of local natural capital such as locally adapted payment schemes for ecosystem services, certification and labeling schemes.
Speaking on the eve of the report launch, Pavan Sukhdev, TEEB's Study Leader, said: "All economic activity and most of human well-being whether in an urban or non-urban setting is based on a healthy, functioning environment. Nature's multiple and complex values have direct economic impacts on human well-being and public spending at a local and well as national level.
"By focusing on the various benefits from nature we can see the direct and indirect ways that we depend on the natural environment and this insight can substantially support local policy and public management.
"We urge local authorities to read this report and recognize the benefits provided by nature and the economic dimension of their local natural capital."
The report comes in advance of the 10th Conference of Parties to the Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD COP10) meeting in Nagoya, Japan this October. Nagoya has also seen the benefit of linking public policy with conservation issues. In order to save the Fujimae Tidal Flat, a vital migratory bird stopover site, from being converted to a landfill site to meet the city's waste management needs, the City of Nagoya initiated a major waste reduction and recycling programme.
This programme started in 1998 and involved extensive community education about correct recycling. The efforts paid off and Nagoya met its target of a 20 per cent decrease in waste within two years and won national awards for environmental practice. In the last ten years the volume of sorted waste has tripled, the volume of processed waste is down 30 per cent and the volume of landfill has been reduced by 60 per cent. Since 2002 the Fujimae Tidal Flat has been listed on the Ramsar List of Wetlands of International Importance. (Environmental Affairs Bureau, City of Nagoya).
Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, commented:
"Sizing the problem of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss in economic terms was the main focus for TEEB's report to CBD COP-9. Now as we head towards COP-10 I am pleased to see that TEEB's focus is on solutions that are both workable and economically successful.
"State and provincial governments, local authorities, city and county councils-the audience for today's new report- can all make a huge contribution to overall efforts towards a transition to a low carbon, resource efficient Green Economy. This is because some 70 per cent of humanity's ecological footprint is now linked with the way resources are consumed in cities. Some Local governments are already rising to the challenge as the wide range of case studies and solutions spotlighted show- from land-use planning which incorporates ecosystem service values, to new legislation and payments for ecosystem services. Many more now need to come onboard."
The TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers report also underlines three key issues beyond the appraisal of ecosystem services that need attention if natural capital will work for local development:
1: Ensure the fair distribution of rights to nature's benefits. Policy changes often affect service distribution or access - and this must be considered during decision making.
2: Maximise use of available scientific and experience based knowledge as this will help provide a common language to capture diverse views.
3: Engage stakeholders throughout the process to prioritize and develop feasible and effective local policy action.
TEEB has collaborated with the European Environment Agency's online Environmental Atlas to present a series of case studies from around the world that highlight efforts being made to incorporate ecosystems and biodiversity into local policy initiatives. The case studies can be accessed via a link on www.teebweb.org.
Over 140 experts from science, economics and policy from more than 40 countries across the globe have been involved in the research, analysis and writing of the TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers report, which has been coordinated by Heidi Wittmer of the UFZ Helmholtz Research Centre and Haripriya Gundimeda of the Indian Institute of Technology.
TEEB is an independent study, led by Pavan Sukhdev, hosted by United Nations Environment Programme with financial support from the European Commission; Germany, UK , the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. Pavan also spearheads the Green Economy Initiative of the UN Environment Programme.
The TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers report is one of a series of five interconnected reports. These include the Report on Ecological and Economic Foundations, TEEB for Policy Makers and TEEB for Business. A TEEB for citizens website goes live in the lead up to Nagoya and the final TEEB synthesis report will be released at the CBD COP10 meeting at Nagoya in October 2010.
Further information is at www.teebweb.org.
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) Local and Regional Policy Makers report launched at major biodiversity conference in Ghent
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres EurekAlert 8 Sep 10;
Ghent, 9 September 2010 – Factoring the planet's multi-trillion dollar ecosystem services into policy-making can help save cities and regional authorities money while boosting the local economy, enhancing quality of life, securing livelihoods and generating employment.
This is the finding from a major international study, launched in a report by TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers, being released in Belgium, Brazil, India, Japan and South Africa.
In the Framework of the Belgian Presidency of the European Union, the Flemish Ministry of Environment, Nature and Energy, in cooperation with the European Commission and the other Belgian Ministries of Environment are hosting a conference on biodiversity post 2010 entitled: "Biodiversity in a Changing World". The TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers report will be launched at this event.
On the first day of the conference, 8 September, TEEB study leader Pavan Sukhdev will present TEEB recommendations in context of the run up to the 10th Conference of Parties to the Convention of Biological Diversity meeting (CBD COP10) taking place in October, while TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers report coordinator, Dr Heidi Wittmer will present the report findings at the conference on 9 September.
A number of local authorities around the world are already seeing the value of an ecosystems approach to planning. Examples from across Europe include:
For 150 years, a proportion of Swiss forests have been managed to control avalanches, landslides and rock-falls, especially in the Alps (Brändli and Gerold 2001). Some 17% of Swiss forests are managed for hazard protection, usually on a local scale. Support for these measures, and help in identifying specific locations, is strengthened by calculations projecting that these 'protection forests' provide services estimated at US$ 2-3.5 billion annually (ISDR 2004).
Rome is one of Europe's largest cities with the highest number of protected areas. The 19 terrestrial and 1 marine reserve totaling 40,000 ha under protection (31% of the total area) are complemented by 5,000 ha of green public areas.
Local authorities in Wales promote health by increasing and making natural green spaces more accessible. In tackling human health issues in Wales, the Countryside Council for Wales (CCW) recommended that at least 2ha of accessible natural space per 1000 population should be made available. The 22 local authorities in Wales used a CCW methodology to survey the green spaces in their main population centres and the Welsh Assembly Government set a series of policy targets to encourage green space provision to promote human health. This led to the Wales Environment Strategy 2006-2026. Local authorities are now developing a series of local policy responses which will encourage, amongst other things, the provision of green space during new building developments, as well as community engagement to survey and improve green space. These policy changes are starting to feed through into practice and will result in increased "greening" of towns and cities in Wales. (Source: Welsh Health Survey 2008).
The new report, entitled TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers, prepared by The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) initiative hosted by the United Nations Environment Programme, calls on local policy makers to understand the value of their natural capital and the services it provides and apply a focus on nature's benefits in local policy areas such as urban management, spatial planning and protected areas management.
The report aims to provide an inspiring starting point for thinking local policy in a new way. Highlighting practicality, the report calls for local authorities to take a stepwise approach to assessing options that factor nature's benefits into local policy action. This approach includes: assessing ecosystem services and expected changes in their availability and distribution; identifying which ecosystem services are most relevant to particular policy issues; assessing impacts of policy options on different groups in the community.
The report highlights cities dependence on nature and illustrates how ecosystem services can provide cost effective solutions to municipal services. It shows how, in rural development and natural resource management, ecosystems services with high market value are often promoted to the detriment of the regulating services that are equally important but less obvious. It investigates planning frameworks and environmental impact assessments that can proactively include a strong focus on ecosystem services and identify the economic potential of this shift in approach.
Enhancing local benefits from conservation and protected areas is studied and guidance is given on incentives that reward good stewardship of local natural capital such as locally adapted payment schemes for ecosystem services, certification and labeling schemes.
Speaking on the eve of the report launch, Pavan Sukhdev, TEEB's Study Leader, said:
"All economic activity and most of human well-being whether in an urban or non-urban setting is based on a healthy, functioning environment. Nature's multiple and complex values have direct economic impacts on human well-being and public spending at a local and well as national level.
"Many local authorities are recognizing the benefits of factoring the economic dimension of biodiversity into public planning. It is our hope that this TEEB report will help further this action at a local level."
The report comes in advance of the CBD COP-10 meeting in Nagoya, Japan this October. Nagoya has also seen the benefit of linking public policy with conservation issues. In order to save the Fujimae Tidal Flat, a vital migratory bird stopover site, from being converted to a landfill site to meet the city's waste management needs, the City of Nagoya initiated a major waste reduction and recycling programme. This programme started in 1998 and involved extensive community education about correct recycling. The efforts paid off and Nagoya met its target of a 20 per cent decrease in waste within two years and won national awards for environmental practice. In the last ten years the volume of sorted waste has tripled, the volume of processed waste is down 30 per cent and the volume of landfill has been reduced by 60 per cent. Since 2002 the Fujimae Tidal Flat has been listed on the Ramsar List of Wetlands of International Importance. (Source: Environmental Affairs Bureau, City of Nagoya)
Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, commented:
"Sizing the problem of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss in economic terms was the main focus for TEEB's report to CBD COP-9. Now as we head towards COP-10 I am pleased to see that TEEB's focus is on solutions that are both workable and economically successful.
"State and provincial governments, local authorities, city and county councils—the audience for today's new report-- can all make a huge contribution to overall efforts towards a transition to a low carbon, resource efficient Green Economy. This is because some 70 per cent of humanity's ecological footprint is now linked with the way resources are consumed in cities. Some Local governments are already rising to the challenge as the wide range of case studies and solutions spotlighted show-- from land-use planning which incorporates ecosystem service values, to new legislation and payments for ecosystem services. Many more now need to come onboard."
The TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers report also underlines three key issues beyond the appraisal of ecosystem services that need attention if natural capital will work for local development:
1: Ensure the fair distribution of rights to nature's benefits. Policy changes often affect service distribution or access – and this must be considered during decision-making.
2: Maximise use of available scientific and experience based knowledge as this will help provide a common language to capture diverse views.
3: Engage stakeholders throughout the process to prioritize and develop feasible and effective local policy action.
TEEB has collaborated with the European Environment Agency's online Environmental Atlas to present a series of case studies from around the world that highlight efforts being made to incorporate ecosystems and biodiversity into local policy initiatives. The case studies can be accessed via a link on www.teebweb.org.
Over 140 experts from science, economics and policy from more than 40 countries across the globe have been involved in the research, analysis and writing of the TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers report, which has been coordinated by Heidi Wittmer of the UFZ Helmholtz Research Centre and Haripriya Gundimeda of the Indian Institute of Technology.
TEEB is an independent study, led by Pavan Sukhdev, hosted by United Nations Environment Programme with financial support from the European Commission; Germany, UK, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. Pavan also spearheads the Green Economy Initiative of the UN Environment Programme.
The TEEB for Local and Regional Policy Makers report is one of a series of five interconnected reports. These include the Report on Ecological and Economic Foundations, TEEB for Policy Makers and TEEB for Business. A TEEB for citizens website goes live in the lead up to Nagoya and the final TEEB synthesis report will be released at the CBD COP10 meeting at Nagoya in October 2010.
The TEEB reports are available at www.teebweb.org.
University of Cambridge EurekAlert 9 Sep 10;
Leaders in conservation urge biodiversity be considered a global public good
An innovative grouping of conservation scientists and practitioners have come together to advocate a fundamental shift in the way we view biodiversity. In their paper, which was published today in the journal Science, they argue that unless people recognise the link between their consumption choices and biodiversity loss, the diversity of life on Earth will continue to decline.
Dr Mike Rands, Director of the Cambridge Conservation Initiative and lead author of the paper, said: "Despite increasing worldwide conservation efforts, biodiversity continues to decline. If we are to make any kind of impact, it is critical that that we begin to view biodiversity as a global public good which provides such benefits as clean air and fresh water, and that this view is integrated not just into policies but also into society and individuals' day-to-day decisions."
The conservationists, from conservation organisations as well as academia, recognise that biodiversity loss is typically the result of unintended human actions and therefore raises unique difficulties. They state, "The impacts of a particular action are often distant in space and time. This makes effective regulation difficult, as no single body has jurisdiction over the world's biodiversity."
As part of a solution, the authors advocate managing biodiversity as a global public good. They argue that an appreciation of biodiversity as a public good with economic and societal value, providing benefits that far outweigh the cost of conserving ecosystems, should be central to all policy making that impacts on the environment.
They believe it is essential that biodiversity not be considered in isolation as part of the nation's environmental agenda, but must extend across all sectors of government from treasury to defence. This is especially important as some of the policies that most damage biodiversity, such as agricultural, transport and energy subsidies, are not overseen by most governments' environmental regulators.
Internationally, they stress the need for greater support to conservation efforts in developing countries that are rich in biodiversity, including the crucial task of building institutional capacity (the strengthening of the institution through improved regulations, governance and organisational support)
They advocate for economists and conservationists to work more closely together with policy makers to develop strategies that use incentives and regulations to shift individuals, governments, businesses and civil society toward more biodiversity-friendly behaviour.
Dr Rands continued: "Valuing biodiversity is vital to changing the way we view this important resource. Because we have received the benefits of biodiversity for free, we take it for granted. The costs of conserving biodiversity are massively outweighed by the benefits. As the United Nations General Assembly meets for a special session to discuss biodiversity, this is an especially timely and important message for world leaders to take on board.
"It is critical we incorporate the view of biodiversity as natural capital into management decisions and, more importantly, public policies which reward positive individual actions and penalize negative ones."
The paper emphasises this point, stating, "The value of biodiversity must be made an integral element of social, economic and political decision-making, as is starting to happen with carbon and climate change. Government, businesses, and civil society all have crucial roles in this transition."
Currently, the key pressures driving biodiversity loss are the degradation, fragmentation and destruction of habitats, pollution, overexploitation of species, invasive species and climate change.
As these pressures on biodiversity increase, the number of species faced with extinction continues to rise, with 21 per cent of all known mammals, 30 per cent of all known amphibians, and 12 per cent of all known birds* under threat. Additionally, nearly a quarter of plant species are believed to be at risk.**
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*According to the 2009 IUCN Red List
**According to Global Biodiversity Outlook 3
Deborah Jones Yahoo News 9 Sep 10;
VANCOUVER, Canada (AFP) – After years of scarcity, the rivers of the US and Canadian Pacific Northwest are running red, literally, with a vast swarm of a salmon species considered to be in crisis.
Sockeye salmon, whose stocks ran perilously low last year, are gushing in record numbers from the Pacific Ocean toward their spawning grounds far inland.
Since mid-August, in a torrent expected to last through early October, sockeye have plunged and leapt up Alaskan streams, massed through the mouth of the mighty Fraser River in Vancouver, and filled Oregon and Washington waterways.
"We don't know why for certain," said Barry Rosenberger, a manager with Canada's federal fisheries department.
All experts agree that conditions have been near-perfect for this year's sockeye, a strikingly red species with a dramatic four-year life cycle.
Since they hatched inland in 2006, then migrated from freshwater to the ocean in 2008, the fish enjoyed such plentiful food of krill and plankton, preferred cold ocean temperatures, and a dearth of predators, that massive numbers have matured to return to their birthplaces to spawn and die.
"Salmon have had us on a roller coaster," said marine biologist John Reynolds of Simon Fraser University. "Last year we had the lowest return in at least 50 years, and this year it looks like it will be the highest in nearly a century."
The bounty follows years of intense scarcity that closed or restricted many fishing areas, mostly in Canada where the 2009 near-demise of sockeye in the Fraser River prompted Canada to appoint a commission to investigate.
It began holding public meetings in August just as the massive 2010 return began.
The numbers this year affect Japan and Russia as well as North America, and are shocking: in the United States, an estimated 40 million sockeye entering six Alaskan river systems through Bristol Bay broke all records, Rosenberger told AFP.
The Columbia River in Oregon has seen "the largest sockeye return since 1938," he said, while Japan and Russia are enjoying "phenomenal returns."
But the biggest news is in Vancouver, where the largest sockeye return in nearly a century is entering the mouth of the Fraser River -- arguably the world's single largest historic salmon migration route.
On Tuesday the joint Canada-US Pacific Salmon Commission increased its estimate of Fraser sockeye to 34.5 million fish, while Canada's fisheries department said native, commercial and sports fishers caught some 10.7 million.
Before the local commercial fishery wrapped up Tuesday, the glut overwhelmed local canneries and sent consumer prices plunging by as much as 70 percent to 15 dollars per fish, as people lined up at wharves to buy directly from boats.
The last major Fraser run was some 39 million fish in 1913 -- before disaster struck at the aptly-named Hell's Gate, 200 kilometers (124 miles) northeast of Vancouver.
After a railroad construction crew sent a rockslide crashing into Hell's Gate, more than 38 million salmon battered themselves to death against the barrier; only about two percent of the run made it through, according to the fisheries department.
The disaster was devastating in a region where salmon are iconic: local aboriginals are known as "people of the salmon."
Explained Rashid Sumaila, director of the University of British Columbia Fisheries Centre, "everybody (here) has some special attachment to salmon."
Following decades of conservation measures and repairs to migration routes, local residents are now expressing hope.
"These are days of miracle and wonder for those of us who care about the fate of wild salmon," wrote author Stephen Hume in a local newspaper column.
"This is what the river was like every year in the past," Joe Becker, a special commissioner for salmon with the Musqueam Indian Band told AFP from his boat on the Fraser.
"There was this fear hanging on us, maybe this salmon has gone forever -- but maybe they can come back, we haven't lost them," said Sumaila.
Still, no one is calling the bonanza of 2010 the start of a trend.
"Wait to see if it builds up over years before we get confident," said Sumaila.
Stockholm, Sweden – The impacts of climate change are most visible in the dramatic changes occurring to the planet’s freshwater resources, says a new report written by WWF for the World Bank.
The report, Flowing Forward, finds both “visible” water such as rivers, lakes, precipitation, glaciers and snowpack, and water used for crops and livestock, health and sanitation services, hydroelectric and nuclear power as well as manufacturing and business are heavily influenced by climate change.
“The very language of climate change — droughts, floods, desertification, famines, tropical cyclones — is the language of water,” says WWF-US CEO Carter Roberts. “Flowing Forward defines the methodologies that are necessary to sustain healthy economies and healthy ecosystems through water. Water is what unites us. And good water management is the tool we need to sustain development in the face of climate change.”
Effective water resource management is central to adapting our economies and societies to emerging climate conditions. But the uncertainty surrounding our future climate poses a major challenge to engineers and policymakers, especially when developing long-term water infrastructure development strategies. Flowing Forward marks the first comprehensive set of tools to achieve climate-sustainable water management.
“We can’t wait another 30 years for predictions to tell us how climate change is affecting freshwater resources. The threats are being felt now. The World Bank needs climate adaptation decision-making techniques, and it needs them now,” says Julia Bucknall, Manager for the World Bank’s Energy, Transport and Water Department.
Flowing Forward recognizes that sustainability in water management has become a moving target, and this is now the biggest obstacle to implementing solutions to the impacts of climate change.
“We can no longer assume that what is sustainable now will remain sustainable in 10 years, much less 50. So a shifting climate means that the rules for water management must change too. Our current model of ‘sustainable development’ is threatened by climate change. Engineers, policymakers and resource managers need new tools to prepare for more extreme floods and droughts, and we believe that ecosystems are the best scorecard to see how our cities farms, and economies are adapting to climate change.” says co-author John Matthews of WWF-US.
“We need to design and operate dams, irrigation systems and energy production grids in ways that will help people and ecosystems adjust to emerging climate conditions together,” he adds.
But report co-author Tom Le Quesne from WWF-UK says the report’s most critical finding is that water managers and policymakers already have most of the important tools to cope with climate change in hand:
“The existing library of methods to manage river basins and water resources will go a long way in creating the conditions that will make our lakes, rivers and groundwater more sustainable. Our goal now is to help the water sector deploy tools that they already know work: environmental flows, Integrated Water Resource Management and the creation of monitoring networks.”
Further information:
To download Flowing Forward, please visit www.flowingforward.org
Randolph E. Schmid, Associated Press Yahoo News 9 Sep 10;
WASHINGTON – The La Nina climate phenomenon is strengthening, increasing the likelihood an active hurricane season could get even busier.
The update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday comes as residents of Texas are cleaning up from the deluge of Tropical Storm Hermine, and Tropical Storm Igor is drifting in the Atlantic.
La Nina is marked by a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and was reported to be developing a month ago. It strengthened throughout August and appears likely to last at least through early 2011, NOAA's Climate Prediction Service said.
"La Nina can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean," the center noted.
Wind shear is a sharp difference in wind speed at different levels in the atmosphere. A strong wind shear reduces hurricanes by breaking up their ability to rise into the air, while less shear means they can climb and strengthen.
NOAA has been calling for an above-normal tropical storm. The forecast issued in August anticipates 14 to 20 named tropical storms. The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the peak period runs from August through October.
La Nina's cooling of the tropical Pacific is the opposite phase of the El Nino event, which is marked by unusually warm tropical water in that region. Each can take place every few years, usually with neutral conditions in between.
Both can impact climate worldwide by changing the direction and strength of winds and altering air pressure and rainfall patterns.
In addition to hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, the impact of La Nina can include above-average rain or snowfall in the Pacific Northwest and below-average precipitation in the Southwest and in portions of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley.
In other regions, La Nina tends to suppress hurricane activity across the central and eastern tropical North Pacific and increases rainfall in Indonesia.
NOAA said its computer climate models disagree on how strong this La Nina will be, but all concur it will last at least through early 2011.
Warming Solution: Just Stop Cold?
Mason Inman National Geographic News 9 Sep 10;
This story is part of a special series that explores energy issues. For more, visit The Great Energy Challenge.
Imagine that tomorrow, the whole world will stop building things that burn fossil fuels—cars and planes, power plants, and housing tracts.
How much more global warming would the planet endure?
This might sound like an environmentalist's dream — or a CEO's nightmare — but it's a serious question addressed by a new study published in the September 10 issue of Science.
If we were to go on using the things we already have, but didn't build new things that used fossil fuel, then the planet would heat up another 0.5ºF to 1.2ºF (0.3ºC to 0.7ºC), the study estimates.
This would keep the total amount of warming, since pre-industrial times, to less than 3.6ºF (2ºC), according to the study.
This amount of warming happens to be the threshold identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as important for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. A wide-ranging coalition of 47 environmental, science, and faith-based groups last year endorsed 2ºC as “a key guide post to measure our efforts to tackle global warming pollution.” And it was the magic number cited in the nonbinding agreement to limit global temperature increases signed by industrialized countries at the international climate summit last December in Copenhagen.
The new results show "we still have it in our hands" to meet this target, said Niklas Höhne, a climate policy expert at the consultancy Ecofys in Cologne, Germany, who was not involved in the new study.
The Worst is Yet to Come
So the analysis, “Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure” is "good news," Höhne said.
But in a world where 50 million new cars are being built each year, where China is rapidly expanding its electric power plant fleet—much of it coal-fired—and the housing bust has slowed but not stopped new real estate development, the Science paper’s underlying theme is a cautionary one.
"The worst impacts are going to be from infrastructure that has yet to be built," warned study lead author Steven Davis, a climate researcher at the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California. "We should concentrate on building the right things going forward."
The results "could be misinterpreted to think that we could just wipe our hands and go home," study leader Davis warned. But, Davis added, "there are things being built every day, and no real prospect that we're going to restrict emissions from all of those things."
It's true that power plants, cars, and houses all have to be retired eventually and replaced. The researchers set out to estimate the lifetimes of today's stock of all these things, and to project roughly the amount of greenhouse gases they would emit up until time of retirement.
A Critical Decade Ahead
The researchers estimated that emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas, from today's stock of vehicles, buildings, and power plants would probably drop to zero by 2050.
If everything else built from now on were emissions-free—a lofty aspiration, to be sure--then the CO2 level in the atmosphere would top out about 410 parts per million (ppm), compared to the current level of about 390 ppm, the study found. While some activists argue that would still be too high, and have rallied around 350 ppm as the goal on which the world should set its sights, keeping the future growth in CO2 concentration to 410 ppm would be a “tremendous challenge,” Davis said.
"A lot of new equipment is being planned right now that will have [a] long lifetime," said Höhne of Ecofys.
If business as usual in the building of energy-consuming infrastructure continues for another decade, Höhne added, "then it will very difficult to achieve the 2ºC target without shutting down some of this equipment early."
So, Höhne argues, "the next ten years [are] very, very critical."
All the world's power plants, vehicles and factories that presently exist may not emit enough carbon dioxide to cause catastrophic climate change
David Biello Scientific American 9 Sep 10;
Humanity has yet to reach the point of no return when it comes to catastrophic climate change, according to new calculations. If we content ourselves with the existing fossil-fuel infrastructure we can hold greenhouse gas concentrations below 450 parts per million in the atmosphere and limit warming to below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels—both common benchmarks for international efforts to avoid the worst impacts of ongoing climate change—according to a new analysis in the September 10 issue of Science. The bad news is we are adding more fossil-fuel infrastructure—oil-burning cars, coal-fired power plants, industrial factories consuming natural gas—every day.
A team of scientists analyzed the existing fossil-fuel infrastructure to determine how much greenhouse gas emissions we have committed to if all of that kit is utilized for its entire expected lifetime. The answer: an average of 496 billion metric tons more of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere between now and 2060 in "committed emissions".
That assumes life spans of roughly 40 years for a coal-fired power plant and 17 years for a typical car—potentially major under- and overestimates, respectively, given that some coal-fired power plants still in use in the U.S. first fired up in the 1950s. Plugging that roughly 500 gigatonne number into a computer-generated climate model predicted CO2 levels would then peak at less than 430 ppm with an attendant warming of 1.3 degrees C above preindustrial average temperature. That's just 50 ppm higher than present levels and 150 ppm higher than preindustrial atmospheric concentrations.
Still, we are rapidly approaching a point of no return, cautions climate modeler Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science's Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University, who participated in the study. "There is little doubt that more CO2-emitting devices will be built," the researchers wrote. After all, the study does not take into account all the enabling infrastructure—such as highways, gas stations and refineries—that contribute inertia that holds back significant changes to lower-emitting alternatives, such as electric cars.
And since 2000 the world has added 416 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants, 449 gigawatts of natural gas–fired power plants and even 47.5 gigawatts of oil-fired power plants, according to the study's figures. China alone is already responsible for more than a third of the global "committed emissions," including adding 2,000 cars a week to the streets of Beijing as well as 322 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants built since 2000.
The U.S.—the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases per person, among major countries—has continued a transition to less CO2-intensive energy use that started in the early 20th century. Natural gas—which emits 40 percent less CO2 than coal when burned—now dominates new power plants (nearly 188 gigawatts added since 2000) along with wind (roughly 28 gigawatts added), a trend broadly similar to other developed nations such as Japan or Germany.
But the U.S. still generates half of its electricity via coal burning—and what replaces those power plants over the next several decades will play a huge role in determining the ultimate degree of global climate change. Coal-burning poses other threats as well, including the toxic coal ash that can spill from the impoundments where it is kept; other polluting emissions that cause acid rain and smog; and the soot that causes and estimated 13,200 extra deaths and nearly 218,000 asthma attacks per year, according to a report from the Clean Air Task Force, an environmental group. "Unfortunately, persistently elevated levels of fine particle pollution are common across wide swaths of the country," reveals the 2010 report, released September 9. "Most of these pollutants originate from combustion sources such as power plants, diesel trucks, buses and cars."
Of course, those are the same culprits contributing the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions. Yet "programs to scale up 'carbon neutral' energy are moving slowly at best," notes physicist Martin Hoffert of New York University in a perspective on the research also published in Science on September 10. "The difficulties posed by generating even [one terawatt] of carbon-neutral power led the late Nobel laureate Richard Smalley and colleagues to call it the 'terawatt challenge'."
That is because all carbon-free sources of energy combined provide a little more than two of the 15 terawatts that power modern society—the bulk of that from nuclear and hydroelectric power plants. At least 10 terawatts each from nuclear; coal with carbon capture and storage; and renewables, such as solar and wind, would be required by mid-century to eliminate CO2 emissions from energy use. As Caldeira and his colleagues wrote: "Satisfying growing demand for energy without producing CO2 emissions will require truly extraordinary development and deployment of carbon-free sources of energy, perhaps 30 [terawatts] by 2050."
Main climate threat from CO2 sources yet to be built
Carnegie Institution EurekAlert 9 Sep 10;
Stanford, CA— Scientists have warned that avoiding dangerous climate change this century will require steep cuts in carbon dioxide emissions. New energy-efficient or carbon-free technologies can help, but what about the power plants, cars, trucks, and other fossil-fuel-burning devices already in operation? Unless forced into early retirement, they will emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for decades to come. Will their emissions push carbon dioxide levels beyond prescribed limits, regardless of what we build next? Is there already too much inertia in the system to curb climate change?
Not just yet, say scientists Steven Davis and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology. But to avoid the worst impacts we need to get busy building the next generation of clean energy technologies.
Davis and Caldeira, with colleague Damon Matthews of Concordia University in Montreal, calculated the amount of carbon dioxide expected to be released from existing energy infrastructure worldwide, and then used a global climate model to project its effect on the Earth's atmosphere and climate.
"The problem of climate change has tremendous inertia," says Davis. "Some of this inertia relates to the natural carbon cycle, but there is also inertia in the manmade infrastructure that emits CO2 and other greenhouse gases. We asked a hypothetical question: what if we never built another CO2-emitting device, but the ones already in existence lived out their normal lives?"
For a coal-fired power plant a "normal life" is about 40 years. For a late-model passenger vehicle in the United States it is about 17 years. After compiling data on lifetimes and emissions rates for the full range of fossil-fuel burning devices worldwide, the researchers found that that between the years 2010 to 2060 the total projected emissions would amount to about 500 billion tons of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere. To gauge the impact, they turned to the climate model. The researchers found that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 would stabilize at less than 430 parts per million (ppm) and the increase of global mean temperatures since preindustrial time would be less than 1.3°C (2.3°F).
"The answer surprised us," says Davis. "Going into this study, we thought that existing sources of CO2 emissions would be enough to push us beyond 450 ppm and 2°C warming." In light of common benchmarks of 450 ppm and 2°C, these results indicate that the devices whose emissions will cause the worst impacts have yet to be built.
But the authors caution that while existing infrastructure is less of a threat to climate than they had expected, this does not minimize the threat of future emissions. "Because most of the threat from climate change will come from energy infrastructure we have yet to build, it is critically important that we build the right stuff now – that is, low carbon emission energy technologies," says Caldeira. He adds that other factors besides devices that directly emit carbon dioxide might also contribute to the system's inertia. "We have a gas station infrastructure but not a battery recharging infrastructure," he says. "This makes it easier to sell new gasoline powered cars than new electric cars. Thus there are infrastructural commitments that go beyond our calculation of future CO2 emissions embodied in existing devices."
"In our earlier work we found that every increment of carbon dioxide emission produces another increment of warming," says Caldeira. "We cannot be complacent just because we haven't yet reached a point of no return."
The study is published in the September 10, 2010, issue of Science.
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