Best of our wild blogs: 1 Oct 18

7-13 Oct: Celebrate Sungei Buloh Wetland Reserve's 25th Anniversary
Celebrating Singapore Shores!

Unveiling Pulau Tekukor
Offshore Singapore

marsh sandpipers & a curlew sandpiper @ SBWR-30Sep2018
sgbeachbum

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Electricity tariffs to go up by 2.1 per cent in last quarter of 2018

ASYRAF KAMIL Today Online 29 Sep 18;

SINGAPORE — Electricity tariffs are set to rise for the fourth consecutive quarter this year, with the average household living in a four-room Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat expected to pay about S$1.76 more for electricity from October to December.

In a press release on Saturday (Sept 29), utility provider SP Group said that electricity tariffs for the next three months will go up by an average of 2.1 per cent on the back of “higher cost of natural gas for electricity generation”.

For the period from Oct 1 to Dec 31, SP Group will be charging 0.48 cents more per kilowatt hour (kWh), bringing up the tariffs to 24.13 cents per kWh.

On average, households in one-room HDB flats will likely pay 0.64 cents more a month, while those in a terrace house could pay S$4.25 more. Their average monthly bills in the next quarter are estimated be about S$32 and S$214 respectively.

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SP Group said that it reviews the electricity tariffs quarterly based on guidelines set by the Energy Market Authority (EMA), the electricity industry regulator.

Earlier this month, the EMA announced that consumers will be able to choose their electricity supplier starting from Nov 1, when the open electricity market is expanded to cater to them zone by zone around the island.

By May 2019, when the full roll-out is completed, 1.4 million households and small businesses will have the option of buying electricity from 12 different retailers.

Instead of being restricted to buying electricity from SP Group at a regulated tariff as they do now, consumers may choose a price plan that meets their needs from the authorised dealers within the open market. SP Group will continue to operate the national power grid and deliver electricity islandwide.

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Indonesia tsunami death toll nears 400, expected to rise

NINIEK KARMINI, Associated Press Yahoo News 30 Sep 18;

PALU, Indonesia (AP) — Residents too afraid to sleep indoors camped out in the darkness Saturday while victims recounted harrowing stories of being separated from their loved ones a day after a powerful earthquake triggered a tsunami that unleashed waves as high as 6 meters (20 feet), killing hundreds on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi.

The official death toll stood at 384, with all the fatalities coming in the hard-hit city of Palu, but it was expected to rise once rescuers reached surrounding coastal areas, said disaster agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho. He said others were unaccounted for, without giving an estimate. The nearby cities of Donggala and Mamuju were also ravaged, but little information was available due to damaged roads and disrupted telecommunications.

Nugroho said "tens to hundreds" of people were taking part in a beach festival in Palu when the tsunami struck at dusk on Friday. Their fate was unknown.

Hundreds of people were injured and hospitals, damaged by the magnitude 7.5 quake, were overwhelmed.

Some of the injured, including Dwi Haris, who suffered a broken back and shoulder, rested outside Palu's Army Hospital, where patients were being treated outdoors due to continuing strong aftershocks. Tears filled his eyes as he recounted feeling the violent earthquake shake the fifth-floor hotel room he shared with his wife and daughter.

"There was no time to save ourselves. I was squeezed into the ruins of the wall, I think," said Haris, adding that the family was in town for a wedding. "I heard my wife cry for help, but then silence. I don't know what happened to her and my child. I hope they are safe."

It's the latest natural disaster to hit Indonesia, which is frequently struck by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis because of its location on the "Ring of Fire," an arc of volcanoes and fault lines in the Pacific Basin. In December 2004, a massive magnitude 9.1 earthquake off Sumatra island in western Indonesia triggered a tsunami that killed 230,000 people in a dozen countries. Last month, a powerful quake on the island of Lombok killed 505 people.

Palu, which has more than 380,000 people, was strewn with debris from the earthquake and tsunami. A mosque heavily damaged by the quake was half submerged and a shopping mall was reduced to a crumpled hulk. A large bridge with yellow arches had collapsed. Bodies lay partially covered by tarpaulins and a man carried a dead child through the wreckage.

The city is built around a narrow bay that apparently magnified the force of the tsunami waters as they raced into the tight inlet.

Indonesian TV showed dramatic smartphone video of a powerful wave hitting Palu, with people screaming and running in fear. The water smashed into buildings and the mosque.

Nina, a 23-year-old woman who goes by one name, was working at a laundry service shop not far from the beach when the quake hit. She said the quake destroyed her workplace, but she managed to escape and quickly went home to get her mother and younger brother.

"We tried to find shelter, but then I heard people shouting, 'Water! Water!'" she recalled, crying. "The three of us ran, but got separated. Now I don't know where my mother and brother are. I don't know how to get information. I don't know what to do."

The earthquake left mangled buildings with collapsed awnings and rebar sticking out of concrete like antennae. Roads were buckled and cracked. The tsunami created even more destruction. It was reported as being 3 meters (10 feet) high in some areas and double that height elsewhere.

"We got a report over the phone saying that there was a guy who climbed a tree up to 6 meters high," said Nugroho, the disaster agency spokesman.

Communications with the area were difficult because power and telecommunications were cut, hampering search and rescue efforts. Most people slept outdoors, fearing strong aftershocks.

"We hope there will be international satellites crossing over Indonesia that can capture images and provide them to us so we can use the images to prepare humanitarian aid," Nugroho said.

Indonesia is a vast archipelago of more than 17,000 islands that's home to 260 million people. Roads and infrastructure are poor in many areas, making access difficult in the best of conditions.

The disaster agency has said that essential aircraft can land at Palu's airport, though AirNav, which oversees aircraft navigation, said the runway was cracked and the control tower damaged.

AirNav said one of its air traffic controllers, aged 21, died in the quake after staying in the tower to ensure a flight he'd just cleared for departure got airborne safely. It did.

More than half of the 560 inmates in a Palu prison fled after its walls collapsed during the quake, said its warden, Adhi Yan Ricoh.

"It was very hard for the security guards to stop the inmates from running away as they were so panicked and had to save themselves too," he told state news agency Antara.

Ricoh said there was no immediate plan to search for the inmates because the prison staff and police were consumed with the search and rescue effort.

"Don't even think to find the inmates. We don't even have time yet to report this incident to our superiors," he said.

Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo said Friday night that he instructed the security minister to coordinate the government's response to the disaster.

Jokowi also told reporters in his hometown of Solo that he called on the country's military chief to help with search and rescue efforts.

United Nations spokesman Stephane Dujarric said U.N. officials were in contact with Indonesian authorities and "stand ready to provide support as required."

Sulawesi has a history of religious tensions between Muslims and Christians, with violent riots erupting in the town of Poso, not far from Palu, two decades ago. Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim country.

Associated Press writers Margie Mason and Stephen Wright contributed to this report from Jakarta, Indonesia.

Warning system might have saved lives in Indonesian tsunami
Stephen Wright, Associated Press Yahoo News 1 Oct 18;

MAKASSAR, Indonesia (AP) -- An early warning system that might have prevented some deaths in the tsunami that hit an Indonesian island on Friday has been stalled in the testing phase for years.

The high-tech system of seafloor sensors, data-laden sound waves and fiber-optic cable was meant to replace a system set up after an earthquake and tsunami killed nearly 250,000 people in the region in 2004. But inter-agency wrangling and delays in getting just 1 billion rupiah ($69,000) to complete the project mean the system hasn't moved beyond a prototype developed with $3 million from the U.S. National Science Foundation.

It is too late for central Sulawesi, where walls of water up to 6 meters (20 feet) high and a magnitude 7.5 earthquake killed at least 832 people in the cities of Palu and Donggala, tragically highlighting the weaknesses of the existing warning system and low public awareness about how to respond to warnings.

"To me this is a tragedy for science, even more so a tragedy for the Indonesian people as the residents of Sulawesi are discovering right now," said Louise Comfort, a University of Pittsburgh expert in disaster management who has led the U.S. side of the project, which also involves engineers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute and Indonesian scientists and disaster experts.

"It's a heartbreak to watch when there is a well-designed sensor network that could provide critical information," she said.

After a 2004 tsunami killed 230,000 people in a dozen countries, more than half of them in the Indonesian province of Aceh, a concerted international effort was launched to improve tsunami warning capabilities, particularly in the Indian Ocean and for Indonesia, one of world's most earthquake and tsunami-prone countries.

Part of that drive, using funding from Germany and elsewhere, included deploying a network of 22 buoys connected to seafloor sensors to transmit advance warnings.

A sizeable earthquake off Sumatra island in 2016 that caused panic in the coastal city of Padang revealed that none of the buoys costing hundreds of thousands of dollars each were working. They'd been disabled by vandalism or theft or just stopped working due to a lack of funds for maintenance.

The backbone of Indonesia's tsunami warning system today is a network of 134 tidal gauge stations augmented by land-based seismographs, sirens in about 55 locations and a system to disseminate warnings by text message.

When the 7.5 quake hit just after 6 p.m. Friday, the meteorology and geophysics agency issued a tsunami alert, warning of potential for waves of 0.5 to 3 meters (2 to 10 feet). It ended the warning at 6:36 p.m. That drew harsh online criticism, but the agency's head said the warning was lifted after the tsunami hit. It's unclear exactly what time tsunami waves rushed into the narrow bay that Palu is built around.

"The tide gauges are operating, but they are limited in providing any advance warning. None of the 22 buoys are functioning," Comfort said. "In the Sulawesi incident, BMKG (the meteorology and geophysics agency) canceled the tsunami warning too soon, because it did not have data from Palu. This is the data the tsunami detection system could provide."

Adam Switzer, a tsunami expert at the Earth Observatory of Singapore, said it's a "little unfair" to say the agency got it wrong.

"What it shows is that the tsunami models we have now are too simplistic," he said. "They don't take into account multiple events, multiple quakes within a short period of time. They don't take into account submarine landslides."

Whatever system is in use, he said, the priority after an earthquake in a coastal area should be to get to higher ground and stay there for a couple of hours.

Power outages after the earthquake struck meant that sirens meant to warn residents to evacuate did not work, said Harkunti P. Rahayu, an expert at the Institute of Technology in Bandung.

"Most people were shocked by the earthquake and did not pay any thought that a tsunami will come," she said.

Experts say the prototype system deployed offshore from Padang — a city extremely vulnerable to tsunamis because it faces a major undersea fault overdue for a massive quake — can provide authoritative information about a tsunami threat within 1 to 3 minutes. That compares with 5 to 45 minutes from the now defunct buoys and the limited information provided by tidal gauges.

The system's undersea seismometers and pressure sensors send data-laden sound waves to warm surface waters. From there they refract back into the depths, traveling 20 to 30 kilometers (12 to 20 miles) to the next node in the network and so on.

The Padang network's final undersea point needs just a few more kilometers of fiber optic cable to connect it to a station on an offshore island where the cascades of data would be transmitted by satellite to the geophysics agency, which issues tsunami warnings, and to disaster officials.

The Associated Press first reported on the system in January 2017, when the project was awaiting Indonesian funding to lay the cables. Since then, agencies involved have suffered budget cuts and the project bounced back and forth between them.

A December 2017 quake off the coast of Java close to Jakarta reignited interest and the geophysics agency made getting funding a priority. In July, the Ministry of Finance in July approved funding to purchase and lay the cable.

But at an inter-agency meeting in September, the three major agencies involved failed to agree on their responsibilities and the project was "simply put on hold," Comfort said.

Indonesian officials who've been supportive of the new early warning system did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Since the 2004 tsunami, the mantra among disaster officials in Indonesia has been that the earthquake is the tsunami warning and signal for immediate evacuation. Not everyone is convinced a tsunami detection system is essential.

"What Indonesian colleagues have commented upon is that people were confused about what to do with the alert information," said Gavin Sullivan, a Coventry University psychologist who works with the Indonesian Resilience Initiative on a disaster preparation project for the Indonesian city of Bandung.

The fact that people were still milling around Palu's shoreline when waves were visibly approaching shows the lessons of earlier disasters haven't been absorbed.

"This points to the failing to do appropriate training and to develop trust so that people know exactly what to do when an alert is issued," he said. "In our project in Bandung, we're finding a similar unwillingness to prepare for something that seems unlikely."

___

Associated Press writer Margie Mason in Jakarta, Indonesia, contributed to this report.


'Heard nothing from Donggala': The Indonesian town of 300,000 close to quake epicentre
Channel NewsAsia 30 Sep 18;

JAKARTA: As tragic details emerge from the quake-tsunami hit city of Palu on Sulawesi island in Indonesia, information from another hard-hit area remained elusive.

The town of Donggala, north of Palu, with a population of 300,000 was the epicentre of the shallow 7.5 magnitude tremor that shook the region.

With the death toll of more than 400 so far from Palu alone and reports only slowly filtering in from Donggal, authorities are bracing for worse to come.

"Worryingly, the National Disaster Management Agency has said they've received no information from the district of Donggala, which is closer to the epicentre of the earthquake," said Helen Szoke of Oxfam.

"We have heard nothing from Donggala and this is extremely worrying. There are more than 300,000 people living there," the Red Cross said in a statement.

Map showing location of the city of Palu and the region of Donggala in Sulawesi island.

"This is already a tragedy, but it could get much worse."

The fishing town of Donggala has been extensively damaged, with houses swept into the sea and bodies trapped in debris, according to a Metro TV reporter on the scene.

Indonesia's vice president Jusuf Kalla said the toll could rise to thousands as President Joko Widodo said he will be visiting the affected areas including Palu and Donggala.

The Head of the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), Willem Rampangilei, told reporters in Sulawesi late on Saturday rescuers were struggling in their hunt for more victims as the death toll in Palu had reached 420.

"We are having difficulty deploying heavy equipment to find victims under the rubble of buildings because many of the roads leading to Palu city are damaged," he was quoted by the Kompas newspaper as saying.

About 10,000 displaced people were scattered at 50 different places in Palu, he said.

Source: CNA/Agencies/mn


Fatalities in Indonesia could reach thousands, officials say
Aftershocks rattle island of Sulawesi as vice-president warns nation to expect significant rise in death toll
Hannah Ellis-Petersen The Guardian 30 Sep 18;

The confirmed death toll from the earthquake and tsunami that struck the Indonesian island of Sulawesi has risen to 832, and the vice-president, Jusuf Kalla, has warned it could reach into the thousands.

More than 150 aftershocks followed the 7.5-magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami that hit Sulawesi on Friday, causing thousands of homes, hotels, shopping malls and several mosques to collapse.

Of the fatalities, 821 were in the city of Palu, with 11 casualties so far recorded in Donggala, the worst-hit area, which is home to 300,000 people. Hundreds of bodies have been found on beaches and authorities fear many may have been washed out to sea.

Speaking at a press conference, Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, the spokesman for the BNBP disaster agency, said the area affected was much bigger than originally thought.

“The deaths are believed to be still increasing since many bodies were still under the wreckage while many have not able to be reached,” said Sutopo, emphasising that access to Donggala, as well as the towns of Sigi and Boutong, was very limited so the final death toll was impossible to predict.

The city of Palu has been completely devastated by the earthquake and tsunami waves, which reached as high as six metres in some areas. In the city, partially covered bodies lay near the shore and survivors sifted through a tangled mess of corrugated steel roofing, timber, rubble and flotsam. One man was seen carrying the muddy corpse of a small child.

“Many corpses are scattered on the beach and floating on the surface of the sea,” one local resident, Nining, told local media. The identified bodies are being buried in mass graves, Sutopo said.

Sutopo confirmed there was no electricity in Palu and Donggala, while drinking water and fuel were running out. There was limited access to heavy equipment needed to help rescue efforts, so the search for people trapped in the rubble was mostly being carried out by hand.

Rescue efforts are continuing for dozens of people still trapped in the collapsed ruins of the eight-storey Roa Roa hotel in Palu, with voices heard screaming from the wreckage.

A 25-year-old woman was found alive during the evening in the ruins of the Roa-Roa Hotel, according to the National Search and Rescue Agency, which released photos of the her lying on a stretcher covered in a blanket.

There were concerns about the whereabouts of hundreds of people preparing for a beach festival that had been due to start on Friday, a spokesman for the BNBP said.

At least 540 people had been badly injured, the agency said, as hospitals struggled to cope with the influx of casualties, setting up open-air clinics to treat the injured.

Dwi Haris, who suffered a broken back and shoulder, rested outside Palu’s army hospital, where patients were being treated outdoors due to the continuing strong aftershocks. Tears filled his eyes as he recounted feeling the violent earthquake shake the fifth-floor hotel room he shared with his wife and daughter.

“There was no time to save ourselves. I was squeezed into the ruins of the wall, I think,” said Haris, adding that his family was in town for a wedding. “I heard my wife cry for help, but then silence. I don’t know what happened to her and my child. I hope they are safe.”

The Indonesian president, Joko Widodo, who visited the region on Sunday, said earlier the military was being called to the region to help search-and-rescue teams.

One of the first casualties of the earthquake, 21-year-old Anthonius Gunawan Agung, is being hailed a hero after he stayed in the air traffic control tower as the earthquake hit, to make sure that a flight to Bali could take off safely. Agung then jumped from the control tower as it was collapsing, but did not survive the fall.

Many residents slept in makeshift shelters, terrified that the powerful aftershocks could topple their damaged homes.

Some voiced criticism of the agency that lifted the tsunami warning. The agency said it followed standard operating procedure and made the call to “end” the warning based on data available from the closest tidal sensor, about 125 miles (200km) from Palu.

“We have no observation data at Palu. So we had to use the data we had and make a call based on that,” said Rahmat Triyono, the head of the earthquakes and tsunami centre at BMKG. He said the closest tide gauge, which measures changes in the sea level, only recorded an “insignificant” 6cm wave and did not account for the giant waves near Palu.

The tsunami was triggered by a strong quake that brought down buildings and sent locals fleeing for higher ground as a churning wall of water crashed into Palu. “We all panicked and ran out of the house” when the quake hit, said Anser Bachmid, a 39-year-old Palu resident. “People here need aid – food, drink, clean water.”

Dramatic video footage captured from the top floor of a parking ramp in Palu, nearly 50 miles (80km) from the quake’s epicentre, showed waves bring down several buildings and inundate a large mosque.

“This was a terrifying double disaster,” said Jan Gelfand, a Jakarta-based official at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “We have heard nothing from Donggala and this is extremely worrying. There are more than 300,000 people living there. This is already a tragedy, but it could get much worse.”

Friday’s tremor was also felt in the far south of the island in its largest city Makassar and on neighbouring Kalimantan, Indonesia’s portion of Borneo island.

The initial quake struck as evening prayers were about to begin in the world’s biggest Muslim-majority country on the holiest day of the week, when mosques are especially busy.

Indonesia is one of the most disaster-prone nations on earth. It lies on the Pacific “Ring of Fire”, where tectonic plates collide and many of the world’s volcanic eruptions and earthquakes occur.

Earlier this year, a series of powerful quakes hit Lombok, killing more than 550 people on the holiday island and neighbouring Sumbawa.

Indonesia has been hit by a string of other deadly quakes including a devastating 9.1-magnitude tremor that struck off the coast of Sumatra in December 2004.

That Boxing Day quake triggered a tsunami that killed 220,000 throughout the region, including 168,000 in Indonesia.


Sulawesi quake: Death toll crosses 1,200 as rescuers race to reach victims
Francis Chan Straits Times 30 Sep 18;

Rescuers are racing against time to reach victims of last Friday’s earthquake still trapped under rubble two days after the disaster. Meanwhile, the death toll continues to rise as more bodies are found.

President Joko Widodo on Sunday (Sept 30) sought to reassure the victims in Central Sulawesi that no effort will be spared to help them get back on the road to recovery. “I hope people will be patient. We are working on this together,” he added.

His comments, made during his visit to parts of the provincial capital Palu, devastated by a 7.4-magnitude quake and a 3m-high tsunami it triggered, come as the death toll rose to more than 1,200 on Sunday.

The number is set to go up further as rescuers finally reach Donggala, which was cut off from them until Sunday because roads leading to the regency were damaged and communications were down.

Donggala, normally a 30-minute drive from Palu, is nearer the epicentre of the quake and the authorities are fearing the worst.

According to national disaster management agency BNPB, some 16,700 people have been displaced by the quakes, but about 2.4 million in Donggala and Palu will need humanitarian aid.

“Fuel, drinking water, medical personnel, tents, electricity, food and other essentials are urgently needed,” BNPB spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said at a press conference in Jakarta Sunday.

Emergency teams could not get to Palu earlier because parts of its airport runway and air traffic control tower were damaged by tremors. But the local air navigation authorities Sunday cleared Mutiara SIS Al-Jufrie airport for more aircraft, including commercial flights, to land and take off.

The evacuation of quake victims, including a 53-year-old Singaporean who was in Palu for a paragliding competition, has also started with the additional flights.

Mr Ng Kok Choong, who was among more than 60 foreigners evacuated by Indonesian military (TNI) transport, arrived home in Singapore Sunday afternoon.

Rescuers are trying to reach those trapped under collapsed buildings.

But they are taking a more cautious approach when digging for survivors among the debris, as aftershocks were causing building structures to be unstable. Dr Sutopo said more than 200 aftershocks have been recorded since Friday.

Officers from national search and rescue agency Basarnas were seen chipping carefully through rubble at what remains of the Roa Roa Hotel in downtown Palu, while another team at the nearby Tatura Mall were trying to establish a safe access point into the building.

Basarnas official Agus Haryono told reporters at the site that rescuers had detected mobile-phone signals inside the mall and were trying to find a way to get in.

Before he arrived in Palu on Sunday, President Joko mobilised the TNI and police to support rescue and relief operations. His administration has also set aside 560 billion rupiah (S$51.4 million) for relief efforts.

This latest crisis comes after earthquakes hit Lombok, a resort island in West Nusa Tenggara province, located south of Sulawesi, recently.

Relief efforts are still ongoing in Lombok, where nearly half a million people were left homeless following the series of deadly earthquakes in July and August.

Meanwhile, two Singapore Civil Defence Force officers are in Indonesia as part of a team from the Asean Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance.

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Vietnam seizes nearly a ton of pangolin scales, ivory

AFP Yahoo News 30 Sep 18;

Hanoi (AFP) - Vietnam has seized around a ton of pangolin scales and ivory hidden inside dozens of boxes on a flight from Nigeria, state media reported, a haul highlighting the illegal wildlife trade routes connecting Africa and Southeast Asia.

Both the ivory and pangolin trade have been banned in Vietnam. But weak law enforcement in the communist state has allowed a black market to flourish and feed into a global multibillion dollar industry in animal parts and exotic pets.

Southeast Asian countries have become a busy thoroughfare for tusks trafficked from Africa and destined for other parts of Asia, mainly China. Pangolins are treasured in Vietnam and the region for their meat and alleged medicinal properties of their scales.

Authorities at Hanoi's airport found 805 kilograms of pangolin scales as well as 193 kilograms of ivory and ivory-derived products in two dozen boxes on Friday, said a report in the official newspaper of the customs department.

The goods were sent from two companies based in Nigeria, according to the labelling. They had arrived on a September 21 flight but were never picked up.

"The (intended) recipients of the cargo package have refused to receive the goods," the article said.

Photos showed a pile of the pangolin scales on the floor as inspectors went through the boxes, which were initially covered in an extra layer of wrapping and taped shut.

The tiny and shy pangolin, which resembles a scaly anteater, is the world's most heavily trafficked mammal and despite bans the trade remains rampant.

Vietnam outlawed the ivory trade in 1992 but illegal trade still persists and shops sell ivory pre-dating the ban for decorative and medicinal purposes.

The haul is the latest to make headlines in Vietnam, where seizures are infrequent but usually large.

Last year police found 2.7 tonnes of tusks inside cartons on the back of a truck in the central province of Thanh Hoa.

In October 2016 customs officials in Vietnam discovered about 3.5 tonnes of elephant tusks at Cat Lai port in Ho Chi Minh City.

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IPCC: Climate scientists consider 'life changing' report

Matt McGrath BBC 1 Oct 18;

It will likely be the most critical and controversial report on climate change in recent years.

Leading scientists are meeting in South Korea this week to see if global temperatures can be kept from rising by more than 1.5C this century.

The world has already passed one degree of warming as carbon emissions have ballooned since the 1850s.

Many low-lying countries say they may disappear under the sea if the 1.5C limit is breached.

After a week of deliberations in the city of Incheon, the researchers' new report will likely say that keeping below this limit will require urgent and dramatic action from governments and individuals alike.

One scientist told BBC News that our lives would never be the same if the world changed course to stay under 1.5C.

The new study is being produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body set up to provide a clear scientific view for governments on the causes, impacts and solutions to rising temperatures.

When the Paris climate agreement was signed in December 2015, there was delight and surprise among many delegates that countries had agreed that the long-term goal of the pact should be to keep global temperatures "well below two degrees C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees C".

To examine the challenges and impacts of keeping temperatures below the 1.5C limit, the UN asked the IPCC to produce a special report, which the scientific body has delivered in record time.

This week in Incheon, the scientists and government delegates will go through the final, short, 15-page Summary for Policymakers, the key distillation of the underlying scientific reports.

This will be done word by word, to ensure everyone - scientists and governments alike - are in agreement on the text.

Why is this report important?
The report will be the guiding light for governments as they decide how to develop their economies in the face of rising temperatures over the coming decades.

"The decisions we make now about whether we let 1.5 or 2 degrees or more happen will change the world enormously," Dr Heleen de Coninck, one of the co-ordinating lead authors of the report, told BBC News.

"But our lives, when keeping it below 1.5C with projected population rise and economic growth, will also look differently."

"Lives of people will never be the same again either way, but we can influence which future we end up with."

Right now, the world has passed one degree of warming above the global temperatures that pertained around 1850, before widespread industrialisation.

Leaked drafts of the new report suggest that global warming is on track to break the 1.5C mark by around 2040.

This is potentially very bad news for low-lying island states and some of the least developed countries in the world who fear that 1.5C will cause sea-level to rise and threaten their survival.

How does the IPCC work?
Slowly and quite carefully.

The IPCC has been in existence for 30 years and produces detailed assessments of the state of the climate every six or seven years.

This special report has been almost three years in the making.

The authors are all scientists who have been nominated by governments and international institutions.

In this case, there are 86 lead authors from 39 countries, of which 39% are female.

These researchers, who are unpaid, have reviewed the available scientific literature on the feasibility, impacts and costs of staying under 1.5C.

They have then put together draft versions of their report, after having reviewed some 6,000 references all told.

These draft reports were sent out to other experts and governments for review. In total, this report has had over 40,000 review comments.

Because so many people are involved, and all these review comments have been taken on board, the IPCC has a reputation for being rather conservative, producing reports that have a very broad consensus.

Those involved say the wide range of literature and the large number of authors involved is a key strength of the body.

"We don't base our reports on a single article that has an extreme conclusion, that contrasts with the available literature," said Dr Carolina Vera, a member of the IPCC bureau.

"The collective view of the available literature is the most robust contribution that we can provide to the governments."

So why is this report controversial?
If you add up all the promises to cut carbon made by countries that have signed the Paris climate agreement, it would see the world warm by more than 3C by the end of this century.

For some scientists, there is not enough time left to take the actions that would keep the world within the desired limit.

"If you really look seriously at the feasibility, it looks like it will be very hard to reach the 1.5C," said Prof Arthur Petersen, from University College London and a former IPCC member.

"I am relatively sceptical that we can meet 1.5C, even with an overshoot. Scientists can dream up that is feasible, but it's a pipedream."

As well as the science, there is also the politics.

For some countries, especially those who are major exporters of fossil fuels, limiting carbon emissions more rapidly than at present is a challenge.

"The overall big question in this report is how we can still get to that 1.5C goal? What does it take?", said Kaisa Kosonen from Greenpeace.

"There are those for whom 1.5C is a matter of life or death and they want the message to be clear. Others might want to suggest that there is not scientific certainty and the messages, for example on rapid fossil-fuel phase-out, should not be so straightforward."

What will the report likely recommend?
The challenge of keeping temperatures below 1.5 is considerable. But, if it is accepted by the governments, the report will likely say that it can be done, if the world is willing to take some very tough steps.

These are likely to involve an intensification of cuts to CO2 emissions, a rapid move to renewable energy and quite possibly, the deployment of technologies to suck greenhouse gases from the air.

This last option is seen as highly controversial.

The report will also likely state that lifestyle and dietary choices can make a significant difference - but there are no simple or cheap solutions.

"There is no easy answer; it is a much more complicated answer," said Prof Jim Skea, who co-chairs one of the IPCC working groups.

"It has physical elements, it has social elements, it has political elements. The report, as it is scoped, allows us to go into these issues, but a crisp answer I don't think is what we were asked for by governments."

Who is actually in charge - the scientists or the governments?
There has been quite a bit of speculation that the scientists are being forced to soften the contents of the report, or "pull their punches", on some of the major conclusions.

What's happened is that there have been notable changes between different draft versions of the short Summary for Policymakers, which will be released officially on Monday 8 October.

This has led some critics to conclude that important aspects are being downplayed to suit the interests of countries with major fossil fuel industries, such as the United States, Saudi Arabia and Australia.

But members of the IPCC say that they will not allow their conclusions to be watered down during the next few days when the Summary is gone through, line by line.

"What is really important for the work of the IPCC is the respect for the integrity and scientific rigour of the authors - that is at the heart of the work of the author teams," said Valérie Masson-Delmotte, a co-chair of the body.

"If one can imagine the governments holding the hands of the scientists, this means you don't know how science works!"

Will sparks fly at this meeting?
Quite likely, yes!

IPCC sessions are closed from the public, to allow governments and scientists to speak freely. Governments often seek to make changes to the text - the scientists are there to ensure that if changes are made, they are consistent with the research.

"I've never been to an approval session that didn't go well after hours; it's kind of IPCC working practice now," said Prof Skea.

"Absolutely it will be a robust session and we are well geared up for it."

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Orca 'apocalypse': half of killer whales doomed to die from pollution

Banned PCB chemicals are still severely harming the animals – but Arctic could be a refuge
Damian Carrington The Guardian 27 Sep 18;

Although the poisonous chemicals, PCBs, have been banned for decades, they are still leaking into the seas. They become concentrated up the food chain; as a result, killer whales, the top predators, are the most contaminated animals on the planet. Worse, their fat-rich milk passes on very high doses to their newborn calves.

PCB concentrations found in killer whales can be 100 times safe levels and severely damage reproductive organs, cause cancer and damage the immune system. The new research analysed the prospects for killer whale populations over the next century and found those offshore from industrialised nations could vanish as soon as 30-50 years.

Among those most at risk are the UK’s last pod, where a recent death revealed one of the highest PCB levels ever recorded. Others off Gibraltar, Japan and Brazil and in the north-east Pacific are also in great danger. Killer whales are one of the most widespread mammals on earth but have already been lost in the North Sea, around Spain and many other places.

“It is like a killer whale apocalypse,” said Paul Jepson at the Zoological Society of London, part of the international research team behind the new study. “Even in a pristine condition they are very slow to reproduce.” Healthy killer whales take 20 years to reach peak sexual maturity and 18 months to gestate a calf.

PCBs were used around the world since the 1930s in electrical components, plastics and paints but their toxicity has been known for 50 years. They were banned by nations in the 1970s and 1980s but 80% of the 1m tonnes produced have yet to be destroyed and are still leaking into the seas from landfills and other sources.

The international Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants came into force in 2004 to tackle the issue, but Jepson said the clean-up is way behind schedule. “I think the Stockholm Convention is failing,” he said. “The only area where I am optimistic is the US. They alone produced 50% of all PCBs, but they have been getting PCB levels down consistently for decades. All we have done in Europe is ban them and then hope they go away.”

The researchers said PCBs are just one pollutant found in killer whales, with “a long list of additional known and as yet unmeasured contaminants present”. Further problems for killer whales include the loss of key prey species such as tuna and sharks to overfishing and also growing underwater noise pollution.

The new research, published in the journal Science, examined PCB contamination in 351 killer whales, the largest analysis yet. The scientists then took existing data on how PCBs affect calf survival and immune systems in whales and used this to model how populations will fare in the future. “Populations of Japan, Brazil, Northeast Pacific, Strait of Gibraltar, and the United Kingdom are all tending toward complete collapse,” they concluded.

Lucy Babey, deputy director at conservation group Orca, said: “Our abysmal failures to control chemical pollution ending up in our oceans has caused a killer whale catastrophe on an epic scale. It is essential that requirements to dispose safely of PCBs under the Stockholm Convention are made legally binding at the next meeting in May 2019 to help stop this scandal.” Scientists have previously found “extraordinary” levels of toxic pollution even in the 10km-deep Mariana trench in the Pacific Ocean.

“This new study is a global red alert on the state of our oceans,” said Jennifer Lonsdale, chair of the Wildlife and Countryside Link’s whales group. “If the UK government wants its [proposed] Environment Act to be world-leading, it must set ambitious targets on PCB disposal and protect against further chemical pollution of our waters.”

The research shows that killer whale populations in the high north, off Norway, Iceland, Canada and the Faroes, are far less contaminated due to their distance from major PCB sources. ”The only thing that gives me hope about killer whales in the longer term is, yes, we are going to lose populations all over the industrialised areas, but there are populations that are doing reasonably well in the Arctic,” said Jepson.

If a global clean-up, which would take decades, can be achieved, these populations could eventually repopulate empty regions, he said, noting that killer whales are very intelligent, have strong family bonds and hunt in packs. “It is an incredibly adaptive species – they have been able to [live] from the Arctic to the Antarctic and everywhere in between.”

He praised the billion-dollar “superfund” clean-ups in the US, such as in the Hudson River and Puget Sound, where the polluter has paid most of the costs: “The US is going way beyond the Stockholm Convention because they know how toxic PCBs are.”

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